Colorectal cancer risk stratification using a polygenic risk score in symptomatic primary care patients-a UK Biobank retrospective cohort study.

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is a leading cause of cancer mortality worldwide. Accurate cancer risk assessment approaches could increase rates of early CRC diagnosis, improve health outcomes for patients and reduce pressure on diagnostic services. The faecal immunochemical test (FIT) for blood in stool is widely used in primary care to identify symptomatic patients with likely CRC. However, there is a 6-16% noncompliance rate with FIT in clinic and ~90% of patients over the symptomatic 10 µg/g test threshold do not have CRC. A polygenic risk score (PRS) quantifies an individual's genetic risk of a condition based on many common variants. Existing PRS for CRC have so far been used to stratify asymptomatic populations. We conducted a retrospective cohort study of 50,387 UK Biobank participants with a CRC symptom in their primary care record at age 40+. A PRS based on 201 variants, 5 genetic principal components and 22 other risk factors and markers for CRC were assessed for association with CRC diagnosis within 2 years of first symptom presentation using logistic regression. Associated variables were included in an integrated risk model and trained in 80% of the cohort to predict CRC diagnosis within 2 years. An integrated risk model combining PRS, age, sex, and patient-reported symptoms was predictive of CRC development in a testing cohort (receiver operating characteristic area under the curve, ROCAUC: 0.76, 95% confidence interval: 0.71-0.81). This model has the potential to improve early diagnosis of CRC, particularly in cases of patient noncompliance with FIT.

The impact of major depressive disorder on glycaemic control in type 2 diabetes: a longitudinal cohort study using UK Biobank primary care records.

BACKGROUND: This study evaluates longitudinal associations between glycaemic control, measured by mean and within-patient variability of glycated haemaglobin (HbA1c) levels, and major depressive disorder (MDD) in individuals with type 2 diabetes (T2D), focusing on the timings of these diagnoses. METHODS: In UK Biobank, T2D was defined using self-report and linked health outcome data, then validated using polygenic scores. Repeated HbA1c measurements (mmol/mol) over the 10 years following T2D diagnosis were outcomes in mixed effects models, with disease duration included using restricted cubic splines. Four MDD exposures were considered: MDD diagnosis prior to T2D diagnosis (pre-T2D MDD), time between pre-T2D MDD diagnosis and T2D, new MDD diagnosis during follow-up (post-T2D MDD) and time since post-T2D MDD diagnosis. Models with and without covariate adjustment were considered. RESULTS: T2D diagnostic criteria were robustly associated with T2D polygenic scores. In 11,837 T2D cases (6.9 years median follow-up), pre-T2D MDD was associated with a 0.92 increase in HbA1c (95% CI: [0.00, 1.84]), but earlier pre-T2D MDD diagnosis correlated with lower HbA1c. These pre-T2D MDD effects became non-significant after covariate adjustment. Post-T2D MDD individuals demonstrated increasing HbA1c with years since MDD diagnosis ( ß = 0.51 , 95% CI: [0.17, 0.86]). Retrospectively, across study follow-up, within-patient variability in HbA1c was 1.16 (95% CI: 1.13-1.19) times higher in post-T2D MDD individuals. CONCLUSIONS: The timing of MDD diagnosis is important for understanding glycaemic control in T2D. Poorer control was observed in MDD diagnosed post-T2D, highlighting the importance of depression screening in T2D, and closer monitoring for individuals who develop MDD after T2D.

An exploratory, randomised, crossover study to investigate the effect of nicotine on cognitive function in healthy adult smokers who use an electronic cigarette after a period of smoking abstinence.

BACKGROUND: As well as being associated with serious negative health outcomes, smoking has been reported to have an array of physiological and psychological effects, including effects on mood and cognitive function. Post-cessation, loss of such effects (including temporary deficits in cognitive function) have been cited as reasons for resumption of smoking. The effects of e-cigarettes and nicotine delivered by e-cigarettes on these functions have not been widely researched but may play a role in the effectiveness of e-cigarettes as a satisfactory alternative to combustible cigarettes for people who smoke, and in encouraging individuals who would otherwise continue to smoke, to transition to e-cigarettes. METHODS: The study was an exploratory, randomised, partially-blinded, single-centre, five-arm crossover trial that recruited 40 healthy male and female people who smoke. At 5 study sessions, following a 12-h period of nicotine abstinence, participants were randomly assigned to use either a combustible cigarette, an e-cigarette of three varying nicotine strengths (18 mg/mL, 12 mg/mL or 0 mg/mL respectively) or observe a no product usage session. Participants completed pre- and post-product usage assessments to examine the product usage effect on cognitive performance (using the Cambridge Neuropsychological Test Automated Battery (CANTAB)), subjective mood and smoking urges. RESULTS: A significant improvement in sustained attention task performance was observed following use of both the nicotine containing e-cigarettes and combustible cigarette compared to no product use. Additionally, there were no significant differences between the nicotine containing products, indicating that nicotine use enhanced sustained attention regardless of delivery format. Nicotine containing e-cigarette and combustible cigarette use also significantly improved overall mood of participants compared to no product use, with no significant differences observed between the nicotine containing products. Nicotine containing e-cigarette and combustible cigarette use significantly reduced smoking urges compared to no product use, though combustible cigarette use elicited the greatest reduction in smoking urges. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, the nicotine containing products improved sustained attention and mood while reducing smoking urges, with the studied e-cigarettes having comparable effects to combustible cigarettes across the assessed cognitive parameters and mood measures. These results demonstrate the potential role of e-cigarettes to provide an acceptable alternative for combustible cigarettes among people who would otherwise continue to smoke. Trial registration ISRCTN (identifier: ISRCTN35376793).

Applying a genetic risk score model to enhance prediction of future multiple sclerosis diagnosis at first presentation with optic neuritis.

Optic neuritis (ON) is associated with numerous immune-mediated inflammatory diseases, but 50% patients are ultimately diagnosed with multiple sclerosis (MS). Differentiating MS-ON from non-MS-ON acutely is challenging but important; non-MS ON often requires urgent immunosuppression to preserve vision. Using data from the United Kingdom Biobank we showed that combining an MS-genetic risk score (GRS) with demographic risk factors (age, sex) significantly improved MS prediction in undifferentiated ON; one standard deviation of MS-GRS increased the Hazard of MS 1.3-fold (95% confidence interval 1.07-1.55, P < 0.01). Participants stratified into quartiles of predicted risk developed incident MS at rates varying from 4% (95%CI 0.5-7%, lowest risk quartile) to 41% (95%CI 33-49%, highest risk quartile). The model replicated across two cohorts (Geisinger, USA, and FinnGen, Finland). This study indicates that a combined model might enhance individual MS risk stratification, paving the way for precision-based ON treatment and earlier MS disease-modifying therapy.

Hyperglycaemia is a causal risk factor for upper limb pathologies.

BACKGROUND: Diabetes (regardless of type) and obesity are associated with a range of musculoskeletal disorders. The causal mechanisms driving these associations are unknown for many upper limb pathologies. We used genetic techniques to test the causal link between glycemia, obesity and musculoskeletal conditions. METHODS: In the UK Biobank's unrelated European cohort (N = 379 708) we performed mendelian randomisation (MR) analyses to test for a causal effect of long-term high glycaemia and adiposity on four musculoskeletal pathologies: frozen shoulder, Dupuytren's disease, carpal tunnel syndrome and trigger finger. We also performed single-gene MR using rare variants in the GCK gene. RESULTS: Using MR, we found evidence that long-term high glycaemia has a causal role in the aetiology of upper limb conditions. A 10-mmol/mol increase in genetically predicted haemoglobin A1C (HbA1c) was associated with frozen shoulder: odds ratio (OR) = 1.50 [95% confidence interval (CI), 1.20-1.88], Dupuytren's disease: OR = 1.17 (95% CI, 1.01-1.35), trigger finger: OR = 1.30 (95% CI, 1.09-1.55) and carpal tunnel syndrome: OR = 1.20 (95% CI, 1.09-1.33). Carriers of GCK mutations have increased odds of frozen shoulder: OR = 7.16 (95% CI, 2.93-17.51) and carpal tunnel syndrome: OR = 2.86 (95% CI, 1.50-5.44) but not Dupuytren's disease or trigger finger. We found evidence that an increase in genetically predicted body mass index (BMI) of 5 kg/m2 was associated with carpal tunnel syndrome: OR = 1.13 (95% CI, 1.10-1.16) and associated negatively with Dupuytren's disease: OR = 0.94 (95% CI, 0.90-0.98), but no evidence of association with frozen shoulder or trigger finger. Trigger finger (OR 1.96 (95% CI, 1.42-2.69) P = 3.6e-05) and carpal tunnel syndrome [OR 1.63 (95% CI, 1.36-1.95) P = 8.5e-08] are associated with genetically predicted unfavourable adiposity increase of one standard deviation of body fat. CONCLUSIONS: Our study consistently demonstrates a causal role of long-term high glycaemia in the aetiology of upper limb musculoskeletal conditions. Clinicians treating diabetes patients should be aware of these complications in clinic, specifically those managing the care of GCK mutation carriers. Upper limb musculoskeletal conditions should be considered diabetes complications.

Influence of family history on penetrance of hereditary cancers in a population setting.

Background: We sought to investigate how penetrance of familial cancer syndromes varies with family history using a population-based cohort. Methods: We analysed 454,712 UK Biobank participants with exome sequence and clinical data (data collected between March 2006 and June 2021). We identified participants with a self-reported family history of breast or colorectal cancer and a pathogenic/likely pathogenic variant in the major genes responsible for hereditary breast cancer or Lynch syndrome. We calculated survival to cancer diagnosis (controlled for sex, death, recruitment centre, screening and prophylactic surgery). Findings: Women with a pathogenic BRCA1 or BRCA2 variant had an increased risk of breast cancer that was higher in those with a first-degree family history (relative hazard 10.3 and 7.8, respectively) than those without (7.2 and 4.7). Penetrance to age 60 was also higher in those with a family history (44.7%, CI 32.2-59.3 and 24.1%, CI 17.5-32.6) versus those without (22.8%, CI 15.9-32.0 and 17.9%, CI 13.8-23.0). A similar pattern was seen in Lynch syndrome: individuals with a pathogenic MLH1, MSH2 or MSH6 variant had an increased risk of colorectal cancer that was significantly higher in those with a family history (relative hazard 35.6, 48.0 and 9.9) than those without (13.0, 15.4 and 7.2). Penetrance to age 60 was also higher for carriers of a pathogenic MLH1 or MSH2 variant in those with a family history (30.9%, CI 18.1-49.3 and 38.3%, CI 21.5-61.8) versus those without (20.5% CI 9.6-40.5 and 8.3% CI 2.1-30.4), but not for MSH6 (6.5% CI 2.7-15.1 with family history versus 8.3%, CI 5.1-13.2). Relative risk increases were also observed both within and across conditions. Interpretation: Individuals with pathogenic cancer syndrome variants may be at a less elevated risk of cancer in the absence of a first-degree family history, so in the context of results return, family history should be considered when counselling patients on the risks and benefits of potential follow-up care. Funding: The current work is supported by the MRC (grant no MR/T00200X/1). The MRC had no role in the design and conduct of the study; collection, management, analysis, and interpretation of the data; preparation, review, or approval of the manuscript; and decision to submit the manuscript for publication.

Body mass index and inflammation in depression and treatment-resistant depression: a Mendelian randomisation study.

BACKGROUND: Major depressive disorder (MDD) has a significant impact on global burden of disease. Complications in clinical management can occur when response to pharmacological modalities is considered inadequate and symptoms persist (treatment-resistant depression (TRD)). We aim to investigate inflammation, proxied by C-reactive protein (CRP) levels, and body mass index (BMI) as putative causal risk factors for depression and subsequent treatment resistance, leveraging genetic information to avoid confounding via Mendelian randomisation (MR). METHODS: We used the European UK Biobank subcohort ([Formula: see text]), the mental health questionnaire (MHQ) and clinical records. For treatment resistance, a previously curated phenotype based on general practitioner (GP) records and prescription data was employed. We applied univariable and multivariable MR models to genetically predict the exposures and assess their causal contribution to a range of depression outcomes. We used a range of univariable, multivariable and mediation MR models techniques to address our research question with maximum rigour. In addition, we developed a novel statistical procedure to apply pleiotropy-robust multivariable MR to one sample data and employed a Bayesian bootstrap procedure to accurately quantify estimate uncertainty in mediation analysis which outperforms standard approaches in sparse binary outcomes. Given the flexibility of the one-sample design, we evaluated age and sex as moderators of the effects. RESULTS: In univariable MR models, genetically predicted BMI was positively associated with depression outcomes, including MDD ([Formula: see text] ([Formula: see text] CI): 0.133(0.072, 0.205)) and TRD (0.347(0.002, 0.682)), with a larger magnitude in females and with age acting as a moderator of the effect of BMI on severity of depression (0.22(0.050, 0.389)). Multivariable MR analyses suggested an independent causal effect of BMI on TRD not through CRP (0.395(0.004, 0.732)). Our mediation analyses suggested that the effect of CRP on severity of depression was partly mediated by BMI. Individuals with TRD ([Formula: see text]) observationally had higher CRP and BMI compared with individuals with MDD alone and healthy controls. DISCUSSION: Our work supports the assertion that BMI exerts a causal effect on a range of clinical and questionnaire-based depression phenotypes, with the effect being stronger in females and in younger individuals. We show that this effect is independent of inflammation proxied by CRP levels as the effects of CRP do not persist when jointly estimated with BMI. This is consistent with previous evidence suggesting that overweight contributed to depression even in the absence of any metabolic consequences. It appears that BMI exerts an effect on TRD that persists when we account for BMI influencing MDD.

The effect of pregnancy vitamin D supplementation on offspring bone mineral density in childhood: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Systematic review and meta-analysis of the effect of moderate- to high-dose vitamin D supplementation in pregnancy on offspring bone mineralisation found a positive effect of vitamin D supplementation on offspring bone mineral density (BMD) at age 4-6 years, with a smaller effect on bone mineral content. PURPOSE: A systematic review and meta-analysis was performed to assess the effect of pregnancy vitamin D supplementation on offspring bone mineral density (BMD) in childhood. METHODS: A literature search was conducted for published RCTs of antenatal vitamin D supplementation with assessment of offspring BMD or bone mineral content (BMC) by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) using MEDLINE and EMBASE up to 13th July 2022. Risk of bias was assessed using the Cochrane Risk of Bias 2 tool. Study findings were grouped in two age groups of offspring assessment: neonatal period and early childhood (3-6 years). Random-effects meta-analysis of the effect on BMC/BMD at 3-6 years was performed using RevMan 5.4.1, yielding standardised mean difference (SMD) (95% CI). RESULTS: Five RCTs were identified with offspring assessment of BMD or BMC; 3250 women were randomised within these studies. Risk of bias was low in 2 studies and "of concern" in 3. Supplementation regimes and the control used (3 studies used placebo and 2 used 400 IU/day cholecalciferol) varied, but in all studies the intervention increased maternal 25-hydroxvitamin D status compared to the control group. Two trials assessing BMD in the neonatal period (total n = 690) found no difference between groups, but meta-analysis was not performed as one trial represented 96.4% of those studied at this age. Three trials assessed offspring whole-body-less-head BMD at age 4-6 years. BMD was higher in children born to mothers supplemented with vitamin D [0.16 SD (95% confidence interval 0.05, 0.27), n = 1358] with a smaller effect on BMC [0.07 SD (95% CI - 0.04, 0.19), n = 1351]. CONCLUSIONS: There are few RCTs published to address this question, and these are inconsistent in methodology and findings. However, meta-analysis of three trials suggests moderate- to high-dose vitamin D supplementation in pregnancy might increase offspring BMD in early childhood, but further trials are required to confirm this finding. (Prospero CRD42021288682; no funding received).

Applying a genetic risk score for prostate cancer to men with lower urinary tract symptoms in primary care to predict prostate cancer diagnosis: a cohort study in the UK Biobank.

BACKGROUND: Prostate cancer is highly heritable, with >250 common variants associated in genome-wide association studies. It commonly presents with non-specific lower urinary tract symptoms that are frequently associated with benign conditions. METHODS: Cohort study using UK Biobank data linked to primary care records. Participants were men with a record showing a general practice consultation for a lower urinary tract symptom. The outcome measure was prostate cancer diagnosis within 2 years of consultation. The predictor was a genetic risk score of 269 genetic variants for prostate cancer. RESULTS: A genetic risk score (GRS) is associated with prostate cancer in symptomatic men (OR per SD increase = 2.12 [1.86-2.41] P = 3.5e-30). An integrated risk model including age and GRS applied to symptomatic men predicted prostate cancer (AUC 0.768 [0.739-0.796]). Prostate cancer incidence was 8.1% (6.7-9.7) in the highest risk quintile. In the lowest quintile, prostate cancer incidence was <1%. CONCLUSIONS: This study is the first to apply GRS in primary care to improve the triage of symptomatic patients. Men with the lowest genetic risk of developing prostate cancer could safely avoid invasive investigation, whilst those identified with the greatest risk could be fast-tracked for further investigation. These results show that a GRS has potential application to improve the diagnostic pathway of symptomatic patients in primary care.

Incidence and prevalence of inflammatory bowel disease in Devon, UK.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: We sought to define temporal changes in prevalence of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) in East Devon, UK, in order to facilitate service planning over the next 5 years. METHODS: Multiple primary and secondary care databases were used to identify and verify cases. Point prevalence and incidence of IBD were reported in April 2017 and from 2008 to 2016, respectively. Future prevalence and healthcare activity requirements were estimated by linear regression. RESULTS: Prevalence of ulcerative colitis (UC), Crohn's disease (CD) and inflammatory bowel disease unclassified (IBDU) were 479.72, 265.94 and 35.34 per 100 000 persons, respectively. In 2016, the incidence rates of UC, CD and IBDU were 15.4, 10.7 and 1.4 per 100 000 persons per year, respectively. There were no significant changes in the incidence of CD (p=0.49, R=0.26) or UC (p=0.80, R=0.10). IBD prevalence has increased by 39.9% (95% CI 28.2 to 53.7) in the last 10 years without differences in the rate of change between UC and CD. Overall, 27% of patients were managed in primary care, a quarter of whom were eligible but not receiving endoscopic surveillance. Outpatient clinics, MRI and biologic use, but not helpline calls, admissions, or surgeries increased over and above the change in IBD prevalence. CONCLUSIONS: We report one of the highest prevalence and incidence rates of IBD from Northern Europe. Overall, IBD incidence is static, but prevalence is increasing. We estimate that 1% of our population will live with IBD between 2025 and 2030.

A genome-wide association study identifies 5 loci associated with frozen shoulder and implicates diabetes as a causal risk factor.

Frozen shoulder is a painful condition that often requires surgery and affects up to 5% of individuals aged 40-60 years. Little is known about the causes of the condition, but diabetes is a strong risk factor. To begin to understand the biological mechanisms involved, we aimed to identify genetic variants associated with frozen shoulder and to use Mendelian randomization to test the causal role of diabetes. We performed a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of frozen shoulder in the UK Biobank using data from 10,104 cases identified from inpatient, surgical and primary care codes. We used data from FinnGen for replication and meta-analysis. We used one-sample and two-sample Mendelian randomization approaches to test for a causal association of diabetes with frozen shoulder. We identified five genome-wide significant loci. The most significant locus (lead SNP rs28971325; OR = 1.20, [95% CI: 1.16-1.24], p = 5x10-29) contained WNT7B. This variant was also associated with Dupuytren's disease (OR = 2.31 [2.24, 2.39], p<1x10-300) as were a further two of the frozen shoulder associated variants. The Mendelian randomization results provided evidence that type 1 diabetes is a causal risk factor for frozen shoulder (OR = 1.03 [1.02-1.05], p = 3x10-6). There was no evidence that obesity was causally associated with frozen shoulder, suggesting that diabetes influences risk of the condition through glycemic rather than mechanical effects. We have identified genetic loci associated with frozen shoulder. There is a large overlap with Dupuytren's disease associated loci. Diabetes is a likely causal risk factor. Our results provide evidence of biological mechanisms involved in this common painful condition.

Genetically defined favourable adiposity is not associated with a clinically meaningful difference in clinical course in people with type 2 diabetes but does associate with a favourable metabolic profile.

AIMS: Change in weight, HbA1c , lipids, blood pressure and cardiometabolic events over time is variable in individuals with type 2 diabetes. We hypothesised that people with a genetic predisposition to a more favourable adiposity distribution could have a less severe clinical course/progression. METHODS: We involved people with type 2 diabetes from two UK-based cohorts: 11,914 individuals with GP follow-up data from the UK Biobank and 723 from Salford. We generated a 'favourable adiposity' genetic score and conducted cross-sectional and longitudinal studies to test its association with weight, BMI, lipids, blood pressure, medication use and risk of myocardial infarction and stroke using 15 follow-up time points with 1-year intervals. RESULTS: The 'favourable adiposity' genetic score was cross-sectionally associated with higher weight (effect size per 1 standard deviation higher genetic score: 0.91 kg [0.59,1.23]) and BMI (0.30 kg/m2 [0.19,0.40]), but higher high-density lipoprotein (0.02 mmol/L [0.01,0.02]) and lower triglycerides (-0.04 mmol/L [-0.07, -0.02]) in the UK Biobank at baseline, and this pattern of association was consistent across follow-up. There was a trend for participants with higher 'favourable adiposity' genetic score to have lower risk of myocardial infarction and/or stroke (odds ratio 0.79 [0.62, 1.00]) compared to those with lower score. A one standard deviation higher score was associated with lower odds of using lipid-lowering (0.91 [0.86, 0.97]) and anti-hypertensive medication (0.95 [0.91, 0.99]). CONCLUSIONS: In individuals with type 2 diabetes, having more 'favourable adiposity' alleles is associated with a marginally better lipid profile long-term and having lower odds of requiring lipid-lowering or anti-hypertensive medication in spite of relatively higher adiposity.

Validating the positivity thresholds of drug-tolerant anti-infliximab and anti-adalimumab antibody assays.

BACKGROUND: When used proactively, drug-tolerant anti-tumour necrosis factor (TNF) antibody assays provide early opportunity to suppress immunogenicity. AIM: To validate positivity thresholds of IDKmonitor drug-tolerant anti-infliximab and -adalimumab antibody assays. METHODS: We applied positivity thresholds, defined by testing sera from 498 anti-TNF naive healthy adults, from the Exeter Ten Thousand study to data from our therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) service and Personalised Anti-TNF Therapy in Crohn's disease (PANTS) cohort to explore associations with drug level and treatment outcomes. RESULTS: The 80% one-sided lower confidence interval of the 99th centile concentration for anti-infliximab and -adalimumab antibodies were lower than the manufacturers threshold of 10 arbitrary units (AU)/mL; 9 and 6 AU/mL, respectively. Using these new thresholds in the TDM cohort, more adalimumab- than infliximab- (11.2% [814/7272] vs 3.1% [390/12 683] P < 0.0001) treated patients were reclassified as antibody-positive. Adalimumab drug concentrations in this reclassified group (median 8.1, interquartile range [IQR] 5.5-11.0 mg/L) were lower than those below the new threshold (<5AU/mL) (median 9.9, IQR 7.1-13.0 mg/L; P < 0.0001), but higher than at the manufacturer's threshold (10-29 AU/mL) (median 5.9 mg/L, IQR 3.5-8.7; P < 0.0001). No difference in infliximab drug concentration was observed using the new or manufacturer's positivity threshold (P = 0.11). In the PANTS cohort, patients with anti-adalimumab antibody concentrations at or above the new threshold were more likely to be in primary non-response (25/68 [37%] vs. 64/332 [19%], P = 0.0035), and non-remission at week 54 (51/62 [82%] vs. 168/279 [60%], P = 0.0011), than patients with anti-drug antibody concentrations in the group below the new threshold (0-5 AU/mL); this was not seen for anti-infliximab antibodies. CONCLUSION: Laboratories should derive antibody positivity thresholds for assays they use. For adalimumab, low-concentration anti-drug antibodies were associated with lower drug levels and treatment failure.

Genetic evidence that higher central adiposity causes gastro-oesophageal reflux disease: a Mendelian randomization study.

BACKGROUND: Gastro-oesophageal reflux disease (GORD) is associated with multiple risk factors but determining causality is difficult. We used a genetic approach [Mendelian randomization (MR)] to identify potential causal modifiable risk factors for GORD. METHODS: We used data from 451 097 European participants in the UK Biobank and defined GORD using hospital-defined ICD10 and OPCS4 codes and self-report data (N = 41 024 GORD cases). We tested observational and MR-based associations between GORD and four adiposity measures [body mass index (BMI), waist-hip ratio (WHR), a metabolically favourable higher body-fat percentage and waist circumference], smoking status, smoking frequency and caffeine consumption. RESULTS: Observationally, all adiposity measures were associated with higher odds of GORD. Ever and current smoking were associated with higher odds of GORD. Coffee consumption was associated with lower odds of GORD but, among coffee drinkers, more caffeinated-coffee consumption was associated with higher odds of GORD. Using MR, we provide strong evidence that higher WHR and higher WHR adjusted for BMI lead to GORD. There was weak evidence that higher BMI, body-fat percentage, coffee drinking or smoking caused GORD, but only the observational effects for BMI and body-fat percentage could be excluded. This MR estimated effect for WHR equates to a 1.23-fold higher odds of GORD per 5-cm increase in waist circumference. CONCLUSIONS: These results provide strong evidence that a higher waist-hip ratio leads to GORD. Our study suggests that central fat distribution is crucial in causing GORD rather than overall weight.

Quality improvement project identifies factors associated with delay in IBD diagnosis.

BACKGROUND: Delay in the diagnosis of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is common and contemporary UK studies are lacking. AIM: To determine factors associated with, and the consequences of, a prolonged time to diagnosis in IBD. METHODS: This quality improvement study included 304 adults with a new IBD diagnosis made between January 2014 and December 2017 across 49 general practices (GP) and gastroenterology secondary care services. Outcome measures were demographic, clinical and laboratory factors associated with a delayed time, defined as greater than upper quartile, to: (a) patient presentation (b) GP referral (c) secondary care diagnosis, and factors associated with a complicated disease course (hospitalisation and/or surgery and/or biologic treatment) in the year after diagnosis. RESULTS: The median [IQR] diagnosis sub-intervals were: (a) patient = 2.1 months [0.9-5.1]; (b) GP = 0.3 months [0.0-0.9]; (c) secondary care = 1.1 months [0.5-2.1]. 50% of patients were diagnosed within 4 months and 92% were diagnosed within 2 years of symptom onset. Diagnostic delay was more common in Crohn's disease (7.6 months [3.1-15.0]) than ulcerative colitis (3.3 months [1.9-7.3]) (P < 0.001). Patients who presented as an emergency (P < 0.001) but not those with a delayed overall time to diagnosis (P = 0.35) were more likely to have a complicated disease course. CONCLUSION: Time to patient presentation is the largest component of time to IBD diagnosis. Emergency presentation is common and, unlike a delayed time to diagnosis, is associated with a complicated disease course.

Clinical Features and Genetic Risk of Demyelination Following Anti-TNF Treatment.

BACKGROUND: Anti-TNF exposure has been linked to demyelination events. We sought to describe the clinical features of demyelination events following anti-TNF treatment and to test whether affected patients were genetically predisposed to multiple sclerosis [MS]. METHODS: We conducted a case-control study to describe the clinical features of demyelination events following anti-TNF exposure. We compared genetic risk scores [GRS], calculated using carriage of 43 susceptibility loci for MS, in 48 cases with 1219 patients exposed to anti-TNF who did not develop demyelination. RESULTS: Overall, 39 [74%] cases were female. The median age [range] of patients at time of demyelination was 41.5 years [20.7-63.2]. The median duration of anti-TNF treatment was 21.3 months [0.5-99.4] and 19 [36%] patients were receiving concomitant immunomodulators. Most patients had central demyelination affecting the brain, spinal cord, or both. Complete recovery was reported in 12 [23%] patients after a median time of 6.8 months [0.1-28.7]. After 33.0 months of follow-up, partial recovery was observed in 29 [55%] patients, relapsing and remitting episodes in nine [17%], progressive symptoms in three [6%]: two [4%] patients were diagnosed with MS. There was no significant difference between MS GRS scores in cases (mean -3.5 × 10-4, standard deviation [SD] 0.0039) and controls [mean -1.1 × 10-3, SD 0.0042] [p = 0.23]. CONCLUSIONS: Patients who experienced demyelination events following anti-TNF exposure were more likely female, less frequently treated with an immunomodulator, and had a similar genetic risk to anti-TNF exposed controls who did not experience demyelination events. Large prospective studies with pre-treatment neuroimaging are required to identify genetic susceptibility loci.

Genome-Wide Association Study of Microscopic Colitis in the UK Biobank Confirms Immune-Related Pathogenesis.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The causes of microscopic colitis are currently poorly understood. Previous reports have found clinical associations with coeliac disease and genetic associations at the human leukocyte antigen [HLA] locus on the ancestral 8.1 haplotype. We investigated pharmacological and genetic factors associated with microscopic colitis in the UK Biobank. METHODS: In total, 483 European UK Biobank participants were identified by ICD10 coding, and a genome-wide association study was performed using BOLT-LMM, with a sensitivity analysis performed excluding potential confounders. The HLA*IMP:02 algorithm was used to estimate allele frequency at 11 classical HLA genes, and downstream analysis was performed using FUMA. Genetic overlap with inflammatory bowel disease [Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis] was investigated using genetic risk scores. RESULTS: We found significant phenotypic associations with smoking status, coeliac disease and the use of proton-pump inhibitors but not with other commonly reported pharmacological risk factors. Using the largest sample size to date, we confirmed a recently reported association with the MHC Ancestral 8.1 Haplotype. Downstream analysis suggests association with digestive tract morphogenesis. By calculating genetic risk scores, we also report suggestive evidence of shared genetic risk with Crohn's disease, but not with ulcerative colitis. CONCLUSIONS: This report confirms the role of genetic determinants in the HLA in the pathogenesis of microscopic colitis. The genetic overlap with Crohn's disease suggests a common underlying mechanism of disease.

Predictors of anti-TNF treatment failure in anti-TNF-naive patients with active luminal Crohn's disease: a prospective, multicentre, cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Anti-TNF drugs are effective treatments for the management of Crohn's disease but treatment failure is common. We aimed to identify clinical and pharmacokinetic factors that predict primary non-response at week 14 after starting treatment, non-remission at week 54, and adverse events leading to drug withdrawal. METHODS: The personalised anti-TNF therapy in Crohn's disease study (PANTS) is a prospective observational UK-wide study. We enrolled anti-TNF-naive patients (aged ≥6 years) with active luminal Crohn's disease at the time of first exposure to infliximab or adalimumab between March 7, 2013, and July 15, 2016. Patients were evaluated for 12 months or until drug withdrawal. Demographic data, smoking status, age at diagnosis, disease duration, location, and behaviour, previous medical and drug history, and previous Crohn's disease-related surgeries were recorded at baseline. At every visit, disease activity score, weight, therapy, and adverse events were recorded; drug and total anti-drug antibody concentrations were also measured. Treatment failure endpoints were primary non-response at week 14, non-remission at week 54, and adverse events leading to drug withdrawal. We used regression analyses to identify which factors were associated with treatment failure. FINDINGS: We enrolled 955 patients treated with infliximab (753 with originator; 202 with biosimilar) and 655 treated with adalimumab. Primary non-response occurred in 295 (23·8%, 95% CI 21·4-26·2) of 1241 patients who were assessable at week 14. Non-remission at week 54 occurred in 764 (63·1%, 60·3-65·8) of 1211 patients who were assessable, and adverse events curtailed treatment in 126 (7·8%, 6·6-9·2) of 1610 patients. In multivariable analysis, the only factor independently associated with primary non-response was low drug concentration at week 14 (infliximab: odds ratio 0·35 [95% CI 0·20-0·62], p=0·00038; adalimumab: 0·13 [0·06-0·28], p<0·0001); the optimal week 14 drug concentrations associated with remission at both week 14 and week 54 were 7 mg/L for infliximab and 12 mg/L for adalimumab. Continuing standard dosing regimens after primary non-response was rarely helpful; only 14 (12·4% [95% CI 6·9-19·9]) of 113 patients entered remission by week 54. Similarly, week 14 drug concentration was also independently associated with non-remission at week 54 (0·29 [0·16-0·52] for infliximab; 0·03 [0·01-0·12] for adalimumab; p<0·0001 for both). The proportion of patients who developed anti-drug antibodies (immunogenicity) was 62·8% (95% CI 59·0-66·3) for infliximab and 28·5% (24·0-32·7) for adalimumab. For both drugs, suboptimal week 14 drug concentrations predicted immunogenicity, and the development of anti-drug antibodies predicted subsequent low drug concentrations. Combination immunomodulator (thiopurine or methotrexate) therapy mitigated the risk of developing anti-drug antibodies (hazard ratio 0·39 [95% CI 0·32-0·46] for infliximab; 0·44 [0·31-0·64] for adalimumab; p<0·0001 for both). For infliximab, multivariable analysis of immunododulator use, and week 14 drug and anti-drug antibody concentrations showed an independent effect of immunomodulator use on week 54 non-remission (odds ratio 0·56 [95% CI 0·38-0·83], p=0·004). INTERPRETATION: Anti-TNF treatment failure is common and is predicted by low drug concentrations, mediated in part by immunogenicity. Clinical trials are required to investigate whether personalised induction regimens and treatment-to-target dose intensification improve outcomes. FUNDING: Guts UK, Crohn's and Colitis UK, Cure Crohn's Colitis, AbbVie, Merck Sharp and Dohme, Napp Pharmaceuticals, Pfizer, and Celltrion.

Phase-transformation-induced lubrication of earthquake sliding.

Frictional failure is not possible at depth in Earth, hence earthquakes deeper than 30-50 km cannot initiate by overcoming dry friction. Moreover, the frequency distribution of earthquakes with depth is bimodal, suggesting another change of mechanism at about 350 km. Here I suggest that the change at 30-50 km is from overcoming dry friction to reduction of effective stress by dehydration embrittlement and that the change at 350 km is due to desiccation of slabs and initiation by phase-transformation-induced faulting. High-speed friction experiments at low pressure indicate that exceeding dry friction provokes shear heating that leads to endothermic reactions and pronounced weakening. Higher-pressure studies show nanocrystalline gouge accompanying dehydration and the highest pressure experiments initiate by exothermic polymorphic phase transformation. Here I discuss the characteristic nanostructures of experiments on high-speed friction and high-pressure faulting and show that all simulated earthquake systems yield very weak transformation-induced lubrication, most commonly nanometric gouge or melt. I also show that phase-transformation-induced faulting of olivine to spinel can propagate into material previously transformed to spinel, apparently by triggering melting analogous to high-speed friction studies at low pressure. These experiments taken as a whole suggest that earthquakes at all depths slide at low frictional resistance by a self-healing pulse mechanism with rapid strength recovery.This article is part of the themed issue 'Faulting, friction and weakening: from slow to fast motion'.