Evaluation of low-template DNA profiles using peak heights.

In recent years statistical models for the analysis of complex (low-template and/or mixed) DNA profiles have moved from using only presence/absence information about allelic peaks in an electropherogram, to quantitative use of peak heights. This is challenging because peak heights are very variable and affected by a number of factors. We present a new peak-height model with important novel features, including over- and double-stutter, and a new approach to dropin. Our model is incorporated in open-source R code likeLTD. We apply it to 108 laboratory-generated crime-scene profiles and demonstrate techniques of model validation that are novel in the field. We use the results to explore the benefits of modeling peak heights, finding that it is not always advantageous, and to assess the merits of pre-extraction replication. We also introduce an approximation that can reduce computational complexity when there are multiple low-level contributors who are not of interest to the investigation, and we present a simple approximate adjustment for linkage between loci, making it possible to accommodate linkage when evaluating complex DNA profiles.

Verifying likelihoods for low template DNA profiles using multiple replicates.

To date there is no generally accepted method to test the validity of algorithms used to compute likelihood ratios (LR) evaluating forensic DNA profiles from low-template and/or degraded samples. An upper bound on the LR is provided by the inverse of the match probability, which is the usual measure of weight of evidence for standard DNA profiles not subject to the stochastic effects that are the hallmark of low-template profiles. However, even for low-template profiles the LR in favour of a true prosecution hypothesis should approach this bound as the number of profiling replicates increases, provided that the queried contributor is the major contributor. Moreover, for sufficiently many replicates the standard LR for mixtures is often surpassed by the low-template LR. It follows that multiple LTDNA replicates can provide stronger evidence for a contributor to a mixture than a standard analysis of a good-quality profile. Here, we examine the performance of the likeLTD software for up to eight replicate profiling runs. We consider simulated and laboratory-generated replicates as well as resampling replicates from a real crime case. We show that LRs generated by likeLTD usually do exceed the mixture LR given sufficient replicates, are bounded above by the inverse match probability and do approach this bound closely when this is expected. We also show good performance of likeLTD even when a large majority of alleles are designated as uncertain, and suggest that there can be advantages to using different profiling sensitivities for different replicates. Overall, our results support both the validity of the underlying mathematical model and its correct implementation in the likeLTD software.

STR analysis of artificially degraded DNA-results of a collaborative European exercise.

Degradation of human DNA extracted from forensic stains is, in most cases, the result of a natural process due to the exposure of the stain samples to the environment. Experiences with degraded DNA from casework samples show that every sample may exhibit different properties in this respect, and that it is difficult to systematically assess the performance of routinely used typing systems for the analysis of degraded DNA samples. Using a batch of artificially degraded DNA with an average fragment size of approx. 200 bp a collaborative exercise was carried out among 38 forensic laboratories from 17 European countries. The results were assessed according to correct allele detection, peak height and balance as well as the occurrence of artefacts. A number of common problems were identified based on these results such as strong peak imbalance in heterozygous genotypes for the larger short tandem repeat (STR) fragments after increased PCR cycle numbers, artefact signals and allelic drop-out. Based on the observations, strategies are discussed to overcome these problems. The strategies include careful balancing of the amount of template DNA and the PCR cycle numbers, the reaction volume and the amount of Taq polymerase. Furthermore, a careful evaluation of the results of the fragment analysis and of automated allele calling is necessary to identify the correct alleles and avoid artefacts.