Stimulating leisure-time activities and the risk of dementia: a multi-cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Stimulating activities are associated with a decreased risk of dementia. However, the extent to which this reflects a protective effect of activity or non-participation resulting from dementia is debated. We investigated the association of stimulating leisure-time activity in late adulthood with the risk of dementia across up to two decades' follow-up. METHODS: We used data from five prospective cohort studies from Finland and Sweden. Mental, social, outdoor, consumptive and physical leisure-time activities were self-reported. Incident dementia was ascertained from clinical diagnoses or healthcare and death registers. Cox regression was used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). RESULTS: Of the 33 263 dementia-free individuals aged ≥50 years at baseline, 1408 had dementia during a mean follow-up of 7.0 years. Active participation in mental (HR: 0.52, 95% CI: 0.41 to 0.65), social (HR: 0.56 95% CI: 0.46 to 0.72), outdoor (HR: 0.70, 95% CI: 0.58 to 0.85), consumptive (HR: 0.67, 95% CI: 0.53 to 0.94) and physical (HR: 0.62, 95% CI: 0.51 to 0.75) activity, as well as variety (HR: 0.54, 95% CI: 0.43 to 0.68) and the overall frequency of activity (HR: 0.41, 95% CI: 0.34 to 0.49) were associated with a reduced risk of dementia in <10 years' follow-up. In ≥10 years' follow-up all associations attenuated toward the null. CONCLUSION: Stimulating leisure-time activities are associated with a reduced risk of dementia in short-term but not long-term follow-up. These findings may reflect a reduction in leisure-time activity following preclinical dementia or dilution of the association over time.

Patterns and Determinants of Exclusive Smokeless Tobacco (Snus) Use, Exclusive Smoking and Dual Use in General Population During 20 Years.

BACKGROUND: We investigate smokeless tobacco (snus) use and its correlates over 20 years in a country where selling snus is prohibited but a large import quota and illicit market exists. METHODS: Repeated cross-sectional population-based surveys during 2000 to 2020 in Finland, including N = 57 111 adults aged 20 to 64 years. The outcome measures were current tobacco use (exclusive snus use, dual use, exclusive smoking, no tobacco use) and snus use (daily, occasional, no snus use). Study years, gender, age, education, marital status, self-rated health, body mass index, and binge drinking were used as explanatory variables. RESULTS: Exclusive snus use and dual use increased 3.6% units and 2.6% units from 2000 to 2005 and from 2018 to 2020, respectively. Overall decrease of tobacco use was led by decreasing exclusive smoking from 30.1% to 18.2%. The shared risk factors for snus use and dual use were male gender, age group 20 to 34 years, and binge drinking. The increases in snus and dual use over time were also most prevalent among these groups. Among men, occasional smoking increased the likelihood of daily (relative risk ratio [RRR] 2.38, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.42, 3.99) and occasional (RRR 3.11, 95% CI 1.93, 5.03) snus use. CONCLUSIONS: Snus use has increased among the general adult population in Finland during 2000 to 2020 yet remains less common than smoking. Snus use and dual use share some common risk factors. Snus use should be considered in cessation services, with support for quitting developed and targeted predominantly for men, younger adults, and persons drinking to intoxication.

Nicotine pouch use by sex, school type and tobacco product use among Finnish adolescents during the 2023 change in regulatory scheme with deregulated sales.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: In Finland, nicotine pouches entered the national market abruptly in 2023, following a change in April 2023 from medicinal product classification into less regulated tobacco surrogate status. This study aimed to measure adolescent nicotine pouch use and associated characteristics. DESIGN AND SETTING: A cross-sectional, nationwide school-based survey among students in comprehensive schools (COMP), general upper secondary schools (GEN) and vocational institutes (VOC) in 2023 in Finland. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 151 224 respondents aged 14-20 years (mean age 16.18 years, standard deviation 1.20 years). MEASUREMENTS: Nicotine pouch use was used as the outcome variable. Demographics included age, sex, school type and tobacco product use (smoking, snus use and e-cigarette use). Covariates included parental education and parental smoking. All measures were self-reported. FINDINGS: Unadjusted results showed that current nicotine pouch use was more common among boys (11.3%) than among girls (3.3%), adolescents in VOC (15.4%) compared with COMP (6.8%) and GEN (4.3%), whereas daily use of other tobacco and nicotine products was associated with current nicotine pouch use compared with never using such products and the association was especially strong for snus use. The fully adjusted estimates of current nicotine pouch use remained strong for daily use of other tobacco and nicotine products (snus use: adjusted prevalence ratio [aPR] = 74.95, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 65.65-84.25; smoking: aPR = 1.43, 95% CI = 1.36-1.50; e-cigarette use: aPR = 2.15, 95% CI = 2.04-2.27) and for sex (boys aPR = 1.53, 95% CI = 1.48-1.57). There was no clear evidence of differences in current nicotine pouch use by school type, age or parental factors in the fully adjusted model. CONCLUSIONS: In Finland in 2023, during which the availability of nicotine pouches became less regulated, nicotine pouch use appeared to be more common among boys and adolescents who used other nicotine products.

Cancer Patients' Social Relationships During 3 Years After Diagnosis-Generic and Cancer-Specific Social Networks.

BACKGROUND: Social relationships are important health resources and may be investigated as social networks. We measured cancer patients' social subnetworks divided into generic social networks (people known to the patients) and disease-specific social networks (the persons talked to about the cancer) during 3 years after diagnosis. METHOD: Newly diagnosed patients with localized breast cancer (n = 222), lymphoma (n = 102), and prostate cancer (n = 141) completed a questionnaire on their social subnetworks at 2-5 months after diagnosis and 9, 18, and 36 months thereafter. Generic and cancer-specific numbers of persons of spouse/partner; other family; close relatives, in detail; and friends were recorded as well as cancer-specific numbers of persons in acquaintances; others with cancer; work community; healthcare professionals; and religious, hobby, and civic participation. The data was analyzed with regression models. RESULTS: At study entry, most patients had a spouse/partner, all had close relatives (the younger, more often parents; and the older, more often adult children with families) and most also friends. The cancer was typically discussed with them, and often with acquaintances and other patients (74-86%). Only minor usually decreasing time trends were seen. However, the numbers of distant relatives and friends were found to strongly increase by the 9-month evaluation (P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Cancer patients have multiple social relationships and usually talk to them about their cancer soon after diagnosis. Most temporal changes are due to the natural course of life cycle. The cancer widened the patients' social networks by including other patients and healthcare professionals and by an increased number of relatives and friends.

Pairwise association of key lifestyle factors and risk of solid cancers - A prospective pooled multi-cohort register study.

Smoking, alcohol consumption, obesity, and physical inactivity are key lifestyle risk factors for cancer. Previously these have been mostly examined singly or combined as an index, assuming independent and equivalent effects to cancer risk. The aim of our study was to systematically examine the joint pairwise and interactive effects of these lifestyle factors on the risk of a first solid primary cancer in a multi-cohort prospective setting. We used pooled data from seven Finnish health survey studies during 1972-2015, with 197,551 participants diagnosed with 16,373 solid malignant primary tumors during follow-up. Incidence of any cancer was analyzed separately without and with lung cancers using Poisson regression with main and interaction effects of key lifestyle factors. When excluding lung cancer, the highest risk of any cancer in men was observed for smokers with a BMI of ≥25 kg/m2 (HR 1.36, 95 % CI 1.25-1.48) and in women for smokers consuming alcohol (HR 1.22, 1.14-1.30). No statistically significant interactions between any studied risk factor pairs were observed. When including lung cancer, the highest HRs among men were observed for smokers who consume alcohol (HR 1.72, 1.57-1.89) and among women for smokers who were physically inactive (HR 1.38, 1.27-1.49). Smoking combined with other lifestyle factors at any exposure level resulted in highest pairwise risks, both in men and women. These results highlight the importance of smoking prevention, but also the importance of preventing obesity and reducing alcohol consumption.

Every tenth malignant solid tumor attributed to overweight and alcohol consumption: A population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Recent studies have shown that some four in ten cancers are attributable to a few key risk factors. The aim of this study was to estimate cohort-based population attributable fractions (PAFs) in Finland for potentially modifiable cancer risk factors. METHODS: Data from eight health studies including 253,953 subjects with 29,802 incident malignant solid tumors were analysed using Bayesian multivariate regression model with multiplicative risk factor effects. We estimated the effects of smoking, excess body weight, alcohol consumption, physical activity, parity and education on cancer incidence and related PAFs by cancer site, accounting for competing mortality. RESULTS: PAF for all cancer sites and exposures combined was 34% (95% credible interval 29%-39%) in men and 24% (19%-28%) in women. In men, 23% (21%-27%) and in women 8% (6%-9%) of all cancers were attributed to smoking. PAF related to excess body weight was 4% (2%-6%) in men and 5% (2%-7%) in women, to alcohol 7% (3%-10%) in men and 4% (0%-7%) in women, and to excess body weight and alcohol combined 10% (6%-15%) in men and 9% (4%-13%) in women. CONCLUSION: Smoking was the most important factor contributing to cancer burden in Finnish men and women over the last 40 years. The contribution of excess body weight and alcohol consumption together outweighed the role of smoking in women. As the prevalence of overweight is expected to increase, more efficient public health measures supporting adherence to healthy weight are essential to reduce cancer burden.

Associations of EAT-Lancet Planetary Health Diet or Finnish Nutrition Recommendations with changes in obesity measures: a follow-up study in adults.

Background: Knowledge on the association between the EAT-Lancet Planetary Health Diet (PHD) or the Finnish Nutrition recommendations (FNR) and anthropometric changes is scarce. Especially, the role of the overall diet quality, distinct from energy intake, on weight changes needs further examination. Objectives: To examine the association between diet quality and weight change indicators and to develop a dietary index based on the PHD adapted for the Finnish food culture. Methods: The study population consisted of participants of two Finnish population-based studies (n = 4,371, 56% of women, aged 30-74 years at baseline). Dietary habits at the baseline were assessed with a validated food frequency questionnaire including 128-130 food items. We developed a Planetary Health Diet Score (PHDS) (including 13 components) and updated the pre-existing Recommended Finnish Diet Score (uRFDS) (including nine components) with energy density values to measure overall diet quality. Weight, height, and waist circumference (WC), and the body mass index (BMI) were measured at the baseline and follow-up, and their percentual changes during a 7-year follow-up were calculated. Two-staged random effects linear regression was used to evaluate ß-estimates with 95% confidence intervals. Results: Adherence to both indices was relatively low (PHDS: mean 3.6 points (standard deviation [SD] 1.2) in the range of 0-13; uRFDS: mean 12.7 points (SD 3.9) in the range of 0-27). We did not find statistically significant associations between either of the dietary indices and anthropometric changes during the follow-up (PHDS, weight: ß -0.04 (95% CI -0.19, 0.11), BMI: ß 0.05 (-0.20, 0.10), WC: ß -0.08 (-0.22, 0.06); uRFDS, weight: ß 0.01 (-0.04, 0.06), BMI: ß 0.01 (-0.04, 0.06), WC: ß -0.02 (-0.07, 0.03)). Conclusion: No associations between overall diet quality and anthropometric changes were found, which may be at least partly explained by low adherence to the PHD and the FNR in the Finnish adult population.

Concordance of shoulder symptoms and imaging findings: a protocol for the Finnish Imaging of Shoulder (FIMAGE) study.

INTRODUCTION: Shoulder pain is a substantial medical and socioeconomic problem in most societies, affecting the ability to work or carry out leisure time activities as well as subsequently influencing physical and psychological well-being. According to a nationwide survey in Finland, 27% of the population reported shoulder pain within the last 30 days. In clinical practice, imaging findings of structural abnormalities are typically thought to explain symptoms, even though such findings are also prevalent in asymptomatic individuals, particularly with increasing age. Overall, there is a paucity of high-quality evidence on the prevalence, clinical relevance and prognosis of 'abnormal' imaging findings of the shoulder.The aim of the Finnish Imaging of Shoulder (FIMAGE) study is fourfold: to assess (1) the prevalence of shoulder symptoms and the most common anatomical variants and imaging abnormalities of the shoulder; (2) the concordance between shoulder symptoms, function and imaging abnormalities; (3) the most important determinants of symptoms, function and imaging abnormalities; and (4) the course of shoulder complaints over 5 years. METHODS: The FIMAGE target population of 600 participants, aged 40-75 years, will be randomly selected from a nationally representative general population sample of 9922 individuals originally recruited for the Finnish Health 2000 Survey. On giving informed consent, the participants will be invited to a clinical visit that includes assessment of general health, shoulder symptoms, bilateral shoulder examination and imaging of both shoulders with plain radiography and MRI. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The study has been approved by the Institutional Review Board of the Helsinki and Uusimaa Hospital District. The findings will be published according to the Strengthening the Reporting of Observational Studies in Epidemiology criteria. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT05641415.

Underreporting of SARS-CoV-2 infections during the first wave of the 2020 COVID-19 epidemic in Finland-Bayesian inference based on a series of serological surveys.

In Finland, the first wave of the COVID-19 epidemic caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) took place from March to June 2020, with the majority of COVID-19 cases diagnosed in the Helsinki-Uusimaa region. The magnitude and trend in the incidence of COVID-19 is one way to monitor the course of the epidemic. The diagnosed COVID-19 cases are a subset of the infections and therefore the COVID-19 incidence underestimates the SARS-CoV-2 incidence. The likelihood that an individual with SARS-CoV-2 infection is diagnosed with COVID-19 depends on the clinical manifestation as well as the infection testing policy and capacity. These factors may fluctuate over time and the underreporting of infections changes accordingly. Quantifying the extent of underreporting allows the assessment of the true incidence of infection. To obtain information on the incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in Finland, a series of serological surveys was initiated in April 2020. We develop a Bayesian inference approach and apply it to data from the serological surveys, registered COVID-19 cases, and external data on antibody development, to estimate the time-dependent underreporting of SARS-Cov-2 infections during the first wave of the COVID-19 epidemic in Finland. During the entire first wave, there were 1 to 5 (95% probability) SARS-CoV-2 infections for every COVID-19 case. The underreporting was highest before April when there were 4 to 17 (95% probability) infections for every COVID-19 case. It is likely that between 0.5%-1.0% (50% probability) and no more than 1.5% (95% probability) of the adult population in the Helsinki-Uusimaa region were infected with SARS-CoV-2 by the beginning of July 2020.

Partial substitution of red or processed meat with plant-based foods and the risk of type 2 diabetes.

High consumption of red and processed meat has been associated with increased type 2 diabetes (T2D) risk. These kinds of diets are also environmentally unsustainable. We examined a modeled association between a partial substitution of red meat or processed meat with plant-based foods (legumes, vegetables, fruit, cereals, or a combination of these) and T2D risk among Finnish adults. We used pooled data from five Finnish cohorts (n = 41,662, 22% women, aged ≥ 25 years, 10.9 years median follow-up with 1750 incident T2D cases). Diet was assessed by a validated food frequency questionnaire. In the substitution models, 100 g/week of red meat or 50 g/week of processed meat were substituted with similar amounts of plant-based substitutes. Cohort-specific hazard ratios (HRs) were estimated by Cox proportional hazards multivariable model and pooled using a two-staged random-effects model. We observed small, but statistically significant, reductions in T2D risk in men when red or processed meat were partially substituted with fruits (red meat: HR 0.98, 95% CI 0.97-1.00, P = 0.049, processed meat: 0.99, 0.98-1.00, P = 0.005), cereals (red meat: 0.97, 0.95-0.99, P = 0.005, processed meat: 0.99, 0.98-1.00, P = 0.004) or combination of plant-based foods (only processed meat: 0.99, 0.98-1.00, P = 0.004) but not with legumes or vegetables. The findings of women were similar but not statistically significant. Our findings suggest that even small, easily implemented, shifts towards more sustainable diets may reduce T2D risk particularly in men.

A Nationally Representative Study of the Hardening Hypothesis Among Educational Groups Over Four Decades.

INTRODUCTION: As smoking prevalence has decreased, there has been debate about "hardening" (smokers are more resistant to established tobacco control measures) or "softening" (smokers are more responsive to interventions) of the remaining smoking population. Despite growing evidence to reject the "hardening" hypothesis, there is lack of long-term population-based studies to test this hypothesis by educational level. AIMS AND METHODS: Repeated cross-sectional population-based surveys during 1978-2014 and in 2018 were utilized. The target population consisted of ~5000 25-64-year-old Finns annually. The data included 109 257 respondents of which 53 351 ever-smoking individuals were included in the analyses. Response rates varied between 84% and 43%. Five hardening indicators considering smoking frequency, intensity and smoking cessation were used as the dependent variables. The main independent variable was study year (time). Statistical analyses were based on regression models using restricted cubic splines by educational level. RESULTS: Contrary to the hardening hypothesis, hardening indicators showed softening over time among all educational groups. However, educational groups differed from each other. Compared with the highly educated, the quit ratio was lower, number of cigarettes per day (CPD) was higher, the proportions of daily smokers among current smokers and heavy smokers among daily smokers were higher among the less educated. CONCLUSIONS: In accordance with growing evidence, also the Finnish smoking population has "softened" over time. Although the change has been predominantly in the same direction for all educational groups, the rate of change has been stronger among the highly educated, highlighting the continued burden of smoking among the less educated. IMPLICATIONS: Even though "softening" of smoking has occurred, lighter smoking also poses health risks. Therefore, tobacco control policies and cessation services should be developed and targeted to a greater extent also for people who smoke less than daily and for those who smoke fewer CPD. Furthermore, interventions should focus on special requirements of the lower educational groups to promote health equity.

Clinical outcomes of myocarditis after SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccination in four Nordic countries: population based cohort study.

Objective: To investigate the clinical outcomes of myocarditis associated with mRNA vaccines against the SARS-CoV-2 virus compared with other types of myocarditis. Design: Population based cohort study. Setting: Nationwide register data from four Nordic countries (Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden), from 1 January 2018 to the latest date of follow-up in 2022. Participants: The Nordic myocarditis cohort; 7292 individuals aged ≥12 years who had an incident diagnosis of myocarditis as a main or secondary diagnosis, in a population of 23 million individuals in Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden. Main outcome measures: Heart failure, or death from any cause within 90 days of admission to hospital for new onset myocarditis, and hospital readmission within 90 days of discharge to hospital for new onset myocarditis. Clinical outcomes of myocarditis associated with SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccination, covid-19 disease, and conventional myocarditis were compared. Results: In 2018-22, 7292 patients were admitted to hospital with new onset myocarditis, with 530 (7.3%) categorised as having myocarditis associated with SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccination, 109 (1.5%) with myocarditis associated with covid-19 disease, and 6653 (91.2%) with conventional myocarditis. At the 90 day follow-up, 62, nine, and 988 patients had been readmitted to hospital in each group (vaccination, covid-19, and conventional myocarditis groups, respectively), corresponding to a relative risk of readmission of 0.79 (95% confidence interval 0.62 to 1.00) and 0.55 (0.30 to 1.04) for the vaccination type and covid-19 type myocarditis groups, respectively, compared with the conventional myocarditis group. At the 90 day follow-up, 27, 18, and 616 patients had a diagnosis of heart failure or died in the vaccination type, covid-19 type, and conventional myocarditis groups, respectively. The relative risk of heart failure within 90 days was 0.56 (95% confidence interval 0.37 to 0.85) and 1.48 (0.86 to 2.54) for myocarditis associated with vaccination and covid-19 disease, respectively, compared with conventional myocarditis; the relative risk of death was 0.48 (0.21 to 1.09) and 2.35 (1.06 to 5.19), respectively. Among patients aged 12-39 years with no predisposing comorbidities, the relative risk of heart failure or death was markedly higher for myocarditis associated with covid-19 disease than for myocarditis associated with vaccination (relative risk 5.78, 1.84 to 18.20). Conclusions: Compared with myocarditis associated with covid-19 disease and conventional myocarditis, myocarditis after vaccination with SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccines was associated with better clinical outcomes within 90 days of admission to hospital.

Genetic background to attention deficit and hyperactivity disorder and attention deficit and hyperactivity disorder symptoms at the age of 5 years: the role of sleep duration.

STUDY OBJECTIVES: We studied the associations between polygenic risk score (PRS) for attention deficit and hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) and (1) ADHD symptoms in 5-year-old children, (2) sleep duration throughout childhood, and (3) the interaction between PRS for ADHD and short sleep duration relative to ADHD symptoms at 5 years. METHODS: This study is based on the population-based CHILD-SLEEP birth cohort (N = 1420 children). PRS was used to quantitate the genetic risk for ADHD. Parent-reported ADHD symptoms at 5 years were obtained from 714 children, using the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ) and the Five-to-Fifteen (FTF). Our primary outcomes were SDQ-hyperactivity and FTF-ADHD total scores. Parent-reported sleep duration was measured at 3, 8, 18, 24 months, and 5 years in the whole sample and actigraphy-based sleep duration at 2 and 24 months in a subsample. RESULTS: PRS for ADHD associated with SDQ-hyperactivity (ß = 0.214, p = .012) and FTF-ADHD total (ß = 0.639, p = .011), and FTF-inattention and hyperactivity subscale scores (ß = 0.315, p = .017 and ß = 0.324, p = .030), but not with sleep duration at any time point. Significant interactions were found between high PRS for ADHD and parent-reported short sleep throughout childhood in FTF-ADHD total score (F = 4.28, p = .039) and FTF-inattention subscale (F = 4.66, p = .031). We did not find any significant interaction between high PRS for ADHD and actigraphy-based short sleep. CONCLUSIONS: Parent-reported short sleep moderates the association between genetic risk of ADHD and ADHD symptoms in early childhood in the general population, so that children with short sleep, in combination with high genetic risk for ADHD, could be at highest risk for ADHD symptoms.

Mortality of asthma, COPD, and asthma-COPD overlap during an 18-year follow up.

BACKGROUND: We studied asthma, COPD, and asthma-COPD overlap (ACO) to predict mortality in a cohort of Finnish adults with an 18-year follow up. METHODS: A national health examination survey representing Finnish adults aged ≥30 years was performed in 2000-2001. The study cohort included 5922 participants (73.8% of the sample) with all relevant data, including a comprehensive clinical examination and spirometry. These participants were followed continuously from baseline until end of 2018 for total, cardiovascular, cancer, and respiratory mortality through a record linkage. Asthma, COPD, and ACO were defined based on the survey data, including spirometry and register data. There were three separate groups of obstructive subjects (one definition excluding the others). RESULTS: Asthma and COPD were significantly associated with higher total mortality in Cox's model adjusted for sex, age, smoking, education level, BMI, leisure time physical activity, cardiovascular disease, diabetes, and hypertension. Hazard ratios (HR) (95% confidence interval [CI]) for asthma, COPD, and ACO were 1.29 (1.05-1.58), 1.50 (1.20-1.88), and 1.26 (0.97-1.65), respectively. Additionally, asthma (HR 1.47, 95% CI 1.09-1.97) and COPD (HR 1.53, 95% CI 1.08-2.16) were associated with cardiovascular mortality. Although ACO did not predict mortality in the whole cohort, there was a significant association with mortality risk among those with hs-CRP 1-2.99 mg/l. CONCLUSIONS: Asthma or COPD predicts higher total mortality and premature death from cardiovascular diseases.

Probable Sarcopenia, Obesity, and Risk of All-Cause Mortality: A Pooled Analysis of 4,612 Participants.

INTRODUCTION: Conflicting evidence exists concerning whether having sarcopenic obesity has additive mortality risk over having only sarcopenia or obesity. We examined the independent and combined associations of obesity and probable sarcopenia with all-cause mortality. METHODS: The pooled analysis included three large, harmonized datasets (Health 2000 Survey; Health, Aging and Body Composition Study; Longitudinal Aging Study Amsterdam) with mortality follow-up data on individuals aged 70 years and over at baseline (n = 4,612). Obesity indicators included body mass index and waist circumference, and probable sarcopenia was defined based on grip strength. The mixed effects Cox model was used for statistical analyses, adjusting for age, sex, marital status, education, race, physical activity, alcohol consumption, smoking, and baseline diseases. RESULTS: Risk of death increased for those having probable sarcopenia only (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.61, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.39-1.85) or probable sarcopenia with obesity (HR: 1.36, 95% CI: 1.13-1.64) but not for the obese-only group (HR: 0.92, 95% CI: 0.85-1.01), when compared to non-obese non-sarcopenic individuals. The results were similar regardless of adjustments for covariates or different obesity criteria applied. CONCLUSION: Probable sarcopenia, whether combined with obesity or not, is associated with increased mortality. Obesity did not increase mortality among older adults. Maintaining muscle strength and identifying older adults at risk of sarcopenia is important for the prevention of premature mortality.

Projections for obesity, smoking and hypertension based on multiple imputation.

AIMS: Information on the future development of prevalences of risk factors and health indicators is needed to prepare for the forthcoming burden of disease in the population and to allocate resources properly for prevention. We aim to present how multiple imputation can be used flexibly to project future prevalences. METHODS: The proposed approach uses data on repeated cross-sectional surveys from different years. We create future samples with age and sex distributions corresponding to the official national population forecasts. Then, the risk factors are simulated using multiple imputation by chained equations. Finally, the imputations are pooled to obtain the prevalences of interest. Covariates, such as sociodemographic variables as well as their possible interactions and non-linear terms, can be included in the modelling. The future development of these covariates is also projected simultaneously. We apply the procedure to data from five Finnish health examination surveys conducted between 1997 and 2017, and project the prevalences of obesity, smoking and hypertension to 2020 and 2025. RESULTS: The prevalence of obesity is projected to increase to 24% for both men and women in 2025. The prevalences of hypertension and smoking are expected to continue decreasing, and the differences between men and women are projected to remain so that men will have higher prevalences. CONCLUSIONS: Simulation of future observations by multiple imputation can be used as a flexible yet relatively easy-to-use projection method.

Adjustment for survey non-participation using record linkage and multiple imputation: A validity assessment exercise using the Health 2000 survey.

AIMS: It is becoming increasingly possible to obtain additional information about health survey participants, though not usually non-participants, via record linkage. We aimed to assess the validity of an assumption underpinning a method developed to mitigate non-participation bias. We use a survey in Finland where it is possible to link both participants and non-participants to administrative registers. Survey-derived alcohol consumption is used as the exemplar outcome. METHODS: Data on participants (85.5%) and true non-participants of the Finnish Health 2000 survey (invited survey sample N=7167 aged 30-79 years) and a contemporaneous register-based population sample (N=496,079) were individually linked to alcohol-related hospitalisation and death records. Applying the methodology to create synthetic observations on non-participants, we created 'inferred samples' (participants and inferred non-participants). Relative differences (RDs) between the inferred sample and the invited survey sample were estimated overall and by education. Five per cent limits were used to define acceptable RDs. RESULTS: Average weekly consumption estimates for men were 129 g and 131 g of alcohol in inferred and invited survey samples, respectively (RD -1.6%; 95% confidence interval (CI) -2.2 to -0.04%) and 35 g for women in both samples (RD -1.1%; 95% CI -2.4 to -0.8%). Estimates for men with secondary levels of education had the greatest RD (-2.4%; 95% CI -3.7 to -1.1%). CONCLUSIONS: The sufficiently small RDs between inferred and invited survey samples support the assumption validity and use of our methodology for adjusting for non-participation. However, the presence of some significant differences means caution is required.

Circulating cell-free DNA in health and disease - the relationship to health behaviours, ageing phenotypes and metabolomics.

Circulating cell-free DNA (cf-DNA) has emerged as a promising biomarker of ageing, tissue damage and cellular stress. However, less is known about health behaviours, ageing phenotypes and metabolic processes that lead to elevated cf-DNA levels. We sought to analyse the relationship of circulating cf-DNA level to age, sex, smoking, physical activity, vegetable consumption, ageing phenotypes (physical functioning, the number of diseases, frailty) and an extensive panel of biomarkers including blood and urine metabolites and inflammatory markers in three human cohorts (N = 5385; 17-82 years). The relationships were assessed using correlation statistics, and linear and penalised regressions (the Lasso), also stratified by sex.cf-DNA levels were significantly higher in men than in women, and especially in middle-aged men and women who smoke, and in older more frail individuals. Correlation statistics of biomarker data showed that cf-DNA level was higher with elevated inflammation (C-reactive protein, interleukin-6), and higher levels of homocysteine, and proportion of red blood cells and lower levels of ascorbic acid. Inflammation (C-reactive protein, glycoprotein acetylation), amino acids (isoleucine, leucine, tyrosine), and ketogenesis (3-hydroxybutyrate) were included in the cf-DNA level-related biomarker profiles in at least two of the cohorts.In conclusion, circulating cf-DNA level is different by sex, and related to health behaviour, health decline and metabolic processes common in health and disease. These results can inform future studies where epidemiological and biological pathways of cf-DNA are to be analysed in details, and for studies evaluating cf-DNA as a potential clinical marker.

Development of non-communicable disease risk factors in Finland: projections up to 2040.

BACKGROUND: Non-communicable diseases are a major cause of mortality and morbidity worldwide. They share the same behavioural risk factors (smoking, sedentary behaviour, alcohol consumption and an unhealthy diet), all of which are modifiable risk factors, and biological consequences (hypertension, elevated total cholesterol, obesity and diabetes). METHODS: Using data from a series of cross-sectional health examination surveys conducted among the adult population in Finland from 1997 to 2017, a projection of risk factor development (smoking, leisure time sedentary behaviour, hypertension, elevated total cholesterol, overweight and obesity, and diabetes) up to the year 2040 was made. The projections were estimated using a multiple imputation method. RESULTS: Smoking prevalence is estimated to continue to decline up to 2040, similar to hypertension and elevated total cholesterol. By contrast, obesity and diabetes will develop unfavourably, with an increase in prevalence. The increase in obesity is mainly due to polarisation - that is, normal-weight people remain of a normal weight, but overweight people tend to gain more weight and become obese. The observed and estimated changes for leisure time sedentary lifestyle were not statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS: Projections of risk factors for non-communicable diseases are needed to guide public health policies and programmes, decision-making and the allocation of health care resources for prevention and care. In Finland, favourable developments have been seen in many of the risk factors, but obesity and diabetes show unfavourable development. There is a need to continue regular, systematic monitoring of the development of risk factors through health examination surveys and to set national goals and programmes to tackle the existing problems.

Temporal changes in health-related lifestyle during the COVID-19 epidemic in Finland - a series of cross-sectional surveys.

BACKGROUND: Public health recommendations and governmental restrictions during the COVID-19 epidemic have affect everyday life. This study aimed to examine temporal changes in health-related lifestyle and the accumulation of positive and negative changes in the key lifestyle factors (vegetable consumption, leisure-time physical activity, sleeping, alcohol consumption, smoking) in the same individuals among Finnish adults during the epidemic. METHODS: This study was based on a series of cross-sectional surveys conducted between April 2020 and June 2021 to investigate antibody levels for the new coronavirus in the population. In each survey, a random sample of adults (18 to 69 years) from five university hospital regions were invited. A total of 5655 (response rate 32%) responded to the questionnaire including questions on lifestyle changes during epidemic. RESULTS: On average one-sixth of respondents (17%) reported at least two negative changes in the key lifestyle factors during the study period. An increase in snacking and sleep problems and decrease in leisure-time physical activity and active commuting to work were the most common of individual negative changes. The proportion of negative changes in physical activity increased as the epidemic drags on. In contrast, on average every seventh of the respondents (14%) reported at least two positive lifestyle changes in the key lifestyle factors. The most common individual positive changes were increased consumption of fruit, berries and vegetables and decreased consumption of alcohol. More negative changes were reported on average, when both negative and positive changes in the key lifestyle factors were summed. The most negative changes were reported in the late 2020. CONCLUSION: The results of the present study suggest that the lifestyle changes during the COVID-19 epidemic have been diverse being on average more commonly unfavorable than favorable for health. The deteriorated epidemic situation in the late 2020 and, on the other hand, prolonged epidemic predisposed to negative lifestyle changes. Further studies are important to examine whether these changes are maintained over time and to identify the factors that contribute to changes and their accumulation in the same individuals. Health promotion actions are needed to prevent the long-term effects of the epidemic on health and welfare.