Seasonal Patterns of Common Respiratory Viral Infections in Immunocompetent and Immunosuppressed Patients.

INTRODUCTION: Several respiratory viruses have been shown to have seasonal patterns. The aim of our study was to evaluate and compare these patterns in immunocompetent and immunosuppressed patients for five different respiratory viruses. METHODS: We performed a retrospective analysis of results for 13,591 respiratory tract samples for human metapneumovirus (HMPV), influenza virus, parainfluenza virus (PIV) and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) in immunocompetent and immunosuppressed patients. A seasonal pattern was aligned to the data of immunocompetent patients through a logistic regression model of positive and negative test results. RESULTS: A narrow seasonal pattern (January to March) was documented for HMPV. Most RSV infections were detected in the winter and early spring months, from December to March, but occasional cases of RSV could be found throughout the year. The peak season for PIV-3 was during the summer months, and that for PIV-4 was mostly in autumn. A narrow seasonal pattern emerged for influenza virus as most infections were detected in the winter, in January and February. The seasonal patterns of HMPV, RSV, PIV, and influenza virus were similar for both immunocompetent and immunocompromised patients. CONCLUSIONS: We found no difference in the seasonality of HMPV, RSV, PIV, and influenza virus infections between immunosuppressed and immunocompetent hosts.

Combining PSMA-PET and PROMISE to re-define disease stage and risk in patients with prostate cancer: a multicentre retrospective study.

BACKGROUND: Prostate-specific membrane antigen (PSMA)-PET was introduced into clinical practice in 2012 and has since transformed the staging of prostate cancer. Prostate Cancer Molecular Imaging Standardized Evaluation (PROMISE) criteria were proposed to standardise PSMA-PET reporting. We aimed to compare the prognostic value of PSMA-PET by PROMISE (PPP) stage with established clinical nomograms in a large prostate cancer dataset with follow-up data for overall survival. METHODS: In this multicentre retrospective study, we used data from patients of any age with histologically proven prostate cancer who underwent PSMA-PET at the University Hospitals in Essen, Münster, Freiburg, and Dresden, Germany, between Oct 30, 2014, and Dec 27, 2021. We linked a subset of patient hospital records with patient data, including mortality data, from the Cancer Registry North-Rhine Westphalia, Germany. Patients from Essen University Hospital were randomly assigned to the development or internal validation cohorts (2:1). Patients from Münster, Freiburg, and Dresden University Hospitals were included in an external validation cohort. Using the development cohort, we created quantitative and visual PPP nomograms based on Cox regression models, assessing potential PPP predictors for overall survival, with least absolute shrinkage and selection operator penalty for overall survival as the primary endpoint. Performance was measured using Harrell's C-index in the internal and external validation cohorts and compared with established clinical risk scores (International Staging Collaboration for Cancer of the Prostate [STARCAP], European Association of Urology [EAU], and National Comprehensive Cancer Network [NCCN] risk scores) and a previous nomogram defined by Gafita et al (hereafter referred to as GAFITA) using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and area under the ROC curve (AUC) estimates. FINDINGS: We analysed 2414 male patients (1110 included in the development cohort, 502 in the internal cohort, and 802 in the external validation cohort), among whom 901 (37%) had died as of data cutoff (June 30, 2023; median follow-up of 52·9 months [IQR 33·9-79·0]). Predictors in the quantitative PPP nomogram were locoregional lymph node metastases (molecular imaging N2), distant metastases (extrapelvic nodal metastases, bone metastases [disseminated or diffuse marrow involvement], and organ metastases), tumour volume (in L), and tumour mean standardised uptake value. Predictors in the visual PPP nomogram were distant metastases (extrapelvic nodal metastases, bone metastases [disseminated or diffuse marrow involvement], and organ metastases) and total tumour lesion count. In the internal and external validation cohorts, C-indices were 0·80 (95% CI 0·77-0·84) and 0·77 (0·75-0·78) for the quantitative nomogram, respectively, and 0·78 (0·75-0·82) and 0·77 (0·75-0·78) for the visual nomogram, respectively. In the combined development and internal validation cohort, the quantitative PPP nomogram was superior to STARCAP risk score for patients at initial staging (n=139 with available staging data; AUC 0·73 vs 0·54; p=0·018), EAU risk score at biochemical recurrence (n=412; 0·69 vs 0·52; p<0·0001), and NCCN pan-stage risk score (n=1534; 0·81 vs 0·74; p<0·0001) for the prediction of overall survival, but was similar to GAFITA nomogram for metastatic hormone-sensitive prostate cancer (mHSPC; n=122; 0·76 vs 0·72; p=0·49) and metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC; n=270; 0·67 vs 0·75; p=0·20). The visual PPP nomogram was superior to EAU at biochemical recurrence (n=414; 0·64 vs 0·52; p=0·0004) and NCCN across all stages (n=1544; 0·79 vs 0·73; p<0·0001), but similar to STARCAP for initial staging (n=140; 0·56 vs 0·53; p=0·74) and GAFITA for mHSPC (n=122; 0·74 vs 0·72; p=0·66) and mCRPC (n=270; 0·71 vs 0·75; p=0·23). INTERPRETATION: Our PPP nomograms accurately stratify high-risk and low-risk groups for overall survival in early and late stages of prostate cancer and yield equal or superior prediction accuracy compared with established clinical risk tools. Validation and improvement of the nomograms with long-term follow-up is ongoing (NCT06320223). FUNDING: Cancer Registry North-Rhine Westphalia.

Efficacy and safety of oral factor Xa inhibitors versus vitamin-K antagonists in the early phase after acute ischemic stroke or TIA in the real-world setting: The PRODAST study.

INTRODUCTION: Factor Xa (FXa) inhibitors are superior to vitamin K antagonists (VKAs) in terms of avoiding hemorrhagic complications. However, no robust data are available to date as to whether this also applies to the early phase after stroke. In this prospective registry study, we aimed to investigate whether anticoagulation with FXa inhibitors in the early phase after acute ischemic stroke or transient ischemic attack (TIA) is associated with a lower risk of major bleeding events compared with VKAs. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The Prospective Record of the Use of Dabigatran in Patients with Acute Stroke or TIA (PRODAST) study is a prospective, multicenter, observational, post-authorization safety study at 86 German stroke units between July 2015 and November 2020. Primary outcome was a major bleeding event during hospital stay. Secondary endpoints were recurrent strokes, recurrent ischemic strokes, TIA, systemic/pulmonary embolism, myocardial infarction, death and the composite endpoint of stroke, systemic embolism, life-threatening bleeding and death. RESULTS: In total, 10,039 patients have been recruited. 5,874 patients were treated with FXa inhibitors and 1,050 patients received VKAs and were eligible for this analysis. Overall, event rates were low. We observed 49 major bleeding complications during 33,297 treatment days with FXa-inhibitors (rate of 14.7 cases per 10,000 treatment days) and 16 cases during 7,714 treatment days with VKAs (rate of 20.7 events per 10,000 treatment days), translating into an adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) of 0.70 (95% confidence interval (95% CI): 0.37-1.32) in favor of FXa inhibitors. Hazards for ischemic endpoints (63 vs 17 strokes, aHR: 0.96 (95% CI: 0.53-1.74), mortality (33 vs 6 deaths, aHR: 0.87 (95% CI: 0.33-2.34)) and the combined endpoint (154 vs 39 events, aHR: 0.99 (95% CI: 0.65-1.41) were not substantially different. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION: This large real-world study shows that FXa inhibitors appear to be similarly effective in terms of bleeding events and ischemic endpoints compared to VKAs in the early post-stroke phase of hospitalization. However, the results need to be interpreted with caution due to the low precision of the estimates.

Association of antibiotic treatment with survival outcomes in treatment-naïve melanoma patients receiving immune checkpoint blockade.

PURPOSE: The interaction of gut microbiome and immune system is being studied with increasing interest. Disturbing factors, such as antibiotics may impact the immune system via gut and interfere with tumor response to immune checkpoint blockade (ICB). METHODS: In this multicenter retrospective cohort study exclusively treatment-naïve patients with cutaneous or mucosal melanoma treated with first-line anti-PD-1 based ICB for advanced, non-resectable disease between 06/2013 and 09/2018 were included. Progression-free (PFS), and overall survival (OS) according to antibiotic exposure (within 60 days prior to ICB and after the start of ICB vs. no antibiotic exposure) were analyzed. To account for immortal time bias, data from patients with antibiotics during ICB were analyzed separately in the time periods before and after start of antibiotics. RESULTS: Among 578 patients with first-line anti-PD1 based ICB, 7% of patients received antibiotics within 60 days prior to ICB and 19% after starting ICB. Antibiotic exposure prior to ICB was associated with worse PFS (adjusted HR 1.75 [95% CI 1.22-2.52]) and OS (adjusted HR 1.64 [95% CI 1.04-2.58]) by multivariate analysis adjusting for potential confounders. The use of antibiotics after the start of ICB had no effect on either PFS (adjusted HR 1.19; 95% CI 0.89-1.60) or OS (adjusted HR 1.08; 95% CI 0.75-1.57). CONCLUSIONS: Antibiotic exposure within 60 days prior to ICB seems to be associated with worse PFS and OS in melanoma patients receiving first-line anti-PD1 based therapy, whereas antibiotics after the start of ICB do not appear to affect PFS or OS.

Treatment of acute ischemic stroke in patients with active malignancy: insight from a comprehensive stroke center.

Background: Despite the high incidence of acute ischemic stroke (AIS) in cancer patients, there is still no consensus about the safety of recanalization therapies in this cohort. Objectives: In this observational study, our aim was to investigate the bleeding risk after acute recanalization therapy in AIS patients with active malignancy. Methods and Study Design: We retrospectively analyzed observational data of 1016 AIS patients who received intravenous thrombolysis with rtPA (IVT) and/or endovascular therapy (EVT) between January 2017 and December 2020 with a focus on patients with active malignancy. The primary safety endpoint was the occurrence of stroke treatment-related major bleeding events, that is, symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage (SICH) and/or relevant systemic bleeding. The primary efficacy endpoint was neurological improvement during hospital stay (NI). Results: None of the 79 AIS patients with active malignancy suffered from stroke treatment-related systemic bleeding. The increased rate (7.6% versus 4.7%) of SICH after therapy compared to the control group was explained by confounding factors. A total of nine patients with cerebral tumor manifestation received acute stroke therapy, two of them suffered from stroke treatment-related intracranial hemorrhage remote from the tumor, both asymptomatic. The group of patients with active malignancy and the control group showed comparable rates of NI. Conclusion: Recanalization therapy in AIS patients with active malignancy was not associated with a higher risk for stroke treatment-related systemic or intracranial bleeding. IVT and/or EVT can be regarded as a safe therapy option for AIS patients with active malignancy.

Prevalence and knowledge about acute mountain sickness in the Western Alps.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the prevalence of acute mountain sickness (AMS) in 1370 mountaineers at four different altitudes in the Western Alps. We also examined the influence of potential risk factors and the knowledge about AMS on its prevalence. METHODS: In this observational cross-sectional study AMS was assessed on the day of ascent by the Lake Louise score (LLS, cut-off ≥3, version 2018) and the AMS-Cerebral (AMS-C) score of the environmental symptom questionnaire (cut-off ≥0,70). The latter was also obtained in the next morning. Knowledge regarding AMS and high-altitude cerebral edema (HACE) and the potential risk factors for AMS were evaluated by questionnaires. RESULTS: On the day of ascent, the prevalence of AMS assessed by the LLS and AMS-C score was 5.8 and 3.9% at 2850 m, 2.1 and 3.1% at 3050 m, 14.8 and 10.1% at 3650 m, and 21.9 and 15% at 4559 m, respectively. The AMS prevalence increased overnight from 10.1 to 14.5% and from 15 to 25.2% at 3650 m and 4559 m, respectively, and was unchanged at 2850 m and 3050 m. A history of AMS, higher altitude, lower degree of pre-acclimatization, and younger age were identified as risk factors for developing AMS. Slow ascent was weakly associated with AMS prevalence, and sex and knowledge about AMS and HACE were indistinct. CONCLUSION: AMS is common at altitudes ≥ 3650 m and better knowledge about AMS and HACE was not associated with less AMS in mountaineers with on average little knowledge.

Outcome after intracranial hemorrhage under dabigatran and reversal with idarucizumab versus under vitamin-K-antagonists - the RIC-ICH study.

Background: Intracranial hemorrhage (ICH) is a rare but serious side effect associated with the use of oral anticoagulants, such as dabigatran. The specific reversal agent for dabigatran, idarucizumab, is available for the management of individuals with ICH. The aim of this study was to provide real-world evidence on patients with ICH and effective treatment with dabigatran and reversal with idarucizumab in clinical routine compared to those under effective treatment with vitamin-K-antagonist (VKA). Methods: Registration of Idarucizumab for Patients with IntraCranial Hemorrhage (RIC-ICH) is a non-interventional study conducted in 22 German stroke units that prospectively enrolled dabigatran patients treated with idarucizumab. Retrospective data from VKA patients served as reference population. Main objective was in-hospital mortality. Further objectives included change in bleeding volume, stroke severity, and functional status. Result: In-hospital mortality was 26.7% in 15 dabigatran and 27.3% in 88 VKA patients (hazard ratio 1.00, 95% CI 0.29-2.60). In patients with bleeding volume > 60 ml, mortality was lower in the dabigatran group (N = 6, 33%) compared to the VKA group (N = 15, 67%; HR 0.24, 95% CI 0.04-0.96). No differences were observed in secondary endpoints between dabigatran and VKA patients. Conclusion: These results, based on data from routine clinical practice, suggest that in-hospital mortality after idarucizumab treatment is comparable to that in patients pretreated with VKA. Due to the low precision of estimates, the results must be interpreted with caution.

Early or late initiation of dabigatran versus vitamin-K-antagonists in acute ischemic stroke or TIA: The PRODAST study.

BACKGROUND: The optimal timing of initiating or resuming anticoagulation after acute ischemic stroke (AIS) or transient ischemic attack (TIA) in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) is debated. Dabigatran, a non-vitamin K oral anticoagulant (NOAC), has shown superiority against vitamin K antagonists (VKA) regarding hemorrhagic complications. AIMS: In this registry study, we investigated the initiation of dabigatran in the early phase after AIS or TIA. METHODS: PRODAST (Prospective Record of the Use of Dabigatran in Patients with Acute Stroke or TIA) is a prospective, multicenter, observational, post-authorization safety study. We recruited 10,039 patients at 86 German stroke units between July 2015 and November 2020. A total of 3,312 patients were treated with dabigatran or VKA and were eligible for the analysis that investigates risks for major hemorrhagic events within 3 months after early (⩽ 7 days) or late (> 7 days) initiation of dabigatran or VKA initiated at any time. Further endpoints were recurrent stroke, ischemic stroke, TIA, systemic embolism, myocardial infarction, death, and a composite endpoint of stroke, systemic embolism, life-threatening bleeding and death. RESULTS: Major bleeding event rates per 10,000 treatment days ranged from 1.9 for late administered dabigatran to 4.9 for VKA. Early or late initiation of dabigatran was associated with a lower hazard for major hemorrhages as compared to VKA use. The difference was pronounced for intracranial hemorrhages with an adjusted hazard ratio (HR) of 0.47 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.10-2.21) for early dabigatran use versus VKA use and an adjusted HR of 0.09 (95% CI: 0.00-13.11) for late dabigatran use versus VKA use. No differences were found between early initiation of dabigatran versus VKA use regarding ischemic endpoints. CONCLUSIONS: The early application of dabigatran appears to be safer than VKA administered at any time point with regards to the risk of hemorrhagic complications and in particular for intracranial hemorrhage. This result, however, must be interpreted with caution in view of the low precision of the estimate.

Diagnostic Cardiac CT for the Improvement of Cardiovascular Event Prediction.

BACKGROUND: The aim of the long-term Heinz Nixdorf Recall Study (observation period 20 years) was to establish the extent to which computed tomography (CT) improves the predictability of cardiovascular events relative to determination of risk factors alone. METHODS: In the period 2000-2003, study staff examined 4355 probands (53% of them female) aged 45-75 years with no signs of cardiovascular disease. The Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease (ASCVD) score was calculated on the basis of demographic data and cardiovascular risk factors. Cardiac CT was carried out over the same period and coronary artery calcification (CAC) was graded according to the Agatston score. RESULTS: The median duration of follow-up was 18.2 years for men and 17.8 years for women. Myocardial infarction or stroke occurred in 458 (11%) of the 4154 participants with complete data. Overall, estimation of risk using a combination of ASCVD score and CAC grade was superior to the ASCVD score alone-even after 10 and 20 years. Classification into established risk categories improved by 12.2% (95% confidence interval: [5.3%; 18.1%]). In the highest ASCVD risk category, we observed occurrence of a cardiovascular event over 20 years for 14% [5.0%; 23.1%] of probands with a CAC score = 0 but for 34.2% [27.5%; 41.4%] of those with a CAC score ≥ 400. In the lowest ASCVD risk category, an event occurred in 2.4% [1.4%; 3.7%] of probands with a CAC score = 0 and in 23.5% [2.3%; 35.8%] of those with a CAC score ≥ 400. CONCLUSION: Even after 20 years, individual risk prediction is improved by addition of CT-based determination of coronary artery calcification to the ASCVD score. Therefore, assessment of ASCVD risk factors should be complemented more widely by cardiac CT in the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease.

Leadership program with skills training for general practitioners was highly accepted without improving job satisfaction: the cluster randomized IMPROVEjob study.

Leadership has become an increasingly important issue in medicine as leadership skills, job satisfaction and patient outcomes correlate positively. Various leadership training and physician psychological well-being programmes have been developed internationally, yet no standard is established in primary care. The IMPROVEjob leadership program was developed to improve job satisfaction among German general practitioners and practice personnel. Its acceptance and effectiveness were evaluated. The IMPROVEjob intervention is a participatory, interdisciplinary and multimodal leadership intervention that targets leadership, workflows and communication in general practices using three elements: (1) two leadership workshops with skills training; (2) a toolbox with printed and online material, and (3) a 9-month implementation phase supported by facilitators. A cluster-randomised trial with a waiting-list control evaluated the effectiveness on the primary outcome job satisfaction assessed by the Copenhagen Psychosocial Questionnaire (range 0-100). A mixed-methods approach with questionnaires and participant interviews evaluated the acceptance of the intervention and factors influencing the implementation of intervention content. Statistical analyses respected the clustered data structure. The COVID-19 pandemic necessitated intervention adjustments: online instead of on-site workshops, online material instead of facilitator practice visits. Overall, 52 of 60 practices completed the study, with altogether 70 practice leaders, 16 employed physicians, and 182 practice assistants. According to an intention-to-treat analysis, job satisfaction decreased between baseline and follow-up (not significantly) in the total study population and in both study arms, while the subgroup of practice leaders showed a non-significant increase. A mixed multilevel regression model showed no effect of the intervention on job satisfaction (b = - 0.36, p > 0.86), which was influenced significantly by a greater sense of community (b = 0.14, p < 0.05). The acceptance of the IMPROVEjob workshops was high, especially among practice leaders compared to assistants (1 = best to 5 = worst): skills training 1.78 vs. 2.46, discussions within the practice team 1.87 vs. 2.28, group discussions 1.96 vs. 2.21. The process evaluation revealed that the COVID-19 pandemic complicated change processes and delayed the implementation of intervention content in practice routines. The workshops within the participatory IMPROVEjob intervention were rated very positively but the multimodal intervention did not improve job satisfaction 9 months into the pandemic. Qualitative data showed an impairment of implementation processes by the unforeseeable COVID pandemic.Trial registration Registration number: DRKS00012677 on 16/10/2019.

Identification of NHLRC1 as a Novel AKT Activator from a Lung Cancer Epigenome-Wide Association Study (EWAS).

Changes in DNA methylation identified by epigenome-wide association studies (EWAS) have been recently linked to increased lung cancer risk. However, the cellular effects of these differentially methylated positions (DMPs) are often unclear. Therefore, we investigated top differentially methylated positions identified from an EWAS study. This included a putative regulatory region of NHLRC1. Hypomethylation of this gene was recently linked with decreased survival rates in lung cancer patients. HumanMethylation450 BeadChip array (450K) analysis was performed on 66 lung cancer case-control pairs from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition Heidelberg lung cancer EWAS (EPIC HD) cohort. DMPs identified in these pre-diagnostic blood samples were then investigated for differential DNA methylation in lung tumor versus adjacent normal lung tissue from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) and replicated in two independent lung tumor versus adjacent normal tissue replication sets with MassARRAY. The EPIC HD top hypermethylated DMP cg06646708 was found to be a hypomethylated region in multiple data sets of lung tumor versus adjacent normal tissue. Hypomethylation within this region caused increased mRNA transcription of the closest gene NHLRC1 in lung tumors. In functional assays, we demonstrate attenuated proliferation, viability, migration, and invasion upon NHLRC1 knock-down in lung cancer cells. Furthermore, diminished AKT phosphorylation at serine 473 causing expression of pro-apoptotic AKT-repressed genes was detected in these knock-down experiments. In conclusion, this study demonstrates the powerful potential for discovery of novel functional mechanisms in oncogenesis based on EWAS DNA methylation data. NHLRC1 holds promise as a new prognostic biomarker for lung cancer survival and prognosis, as well as a target for novel treatment strategies in lung cancer patients.

Distinct Reproductive Risk Profiles for Intrinsic-Like Breast Cancer Subtypes: Pooled Analysis of Population-Based Studies.

BACKGROUND: Reproductive factors have been shown to be differentially associated with risk of estrogen receptor (ER)-positive and ER-negative breast cancer. However, their associations with intrinsic-like subtypes are less clear. METHODS: Analyses included up to 23 353 cases and 71 072 controls pooled from 31 population-based case-control or cohort studies in the Breast Cancer Association Consortium across 16 countries on 4 continents. Polytomous logistic regression was used to estimate the association between reproductive factors and risk of breast cancer by intrinsic-like subtypes (luminal A-like, luminal B-like, luminal B-HER2-like, HER2-enriched-like, and triple-negative breast cancer) and by invasiveness. All statistical tests were 2-sided. RESULTS: Compared with nulliparous women, parous women had a lower risk of luminal A-like, luminal B-like, luminal B-HER2-like, and HER2-enriched-like disease. This association was apparent only after approximately 10 years since last birth and became stronger with increasing time (odds ratio [OR] = 0.59, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.49 to 0.71; and OR = 0.36, 95% CI = 0.28 to 0.46 for multiparous women with luminal A-like tumors 20 to less than 25 years after last birth and 45 to less than 50 years after last birth, respectively). In contrast, parous women had a higher risk of triple-negative breast cancer right after their last birth (for multiparous women: OR = 3.12, 95% CI = 2.02 to 4.83) that was attenuated with time but persisted for decades (OR = 1.03, 95% CI = 0.79 to 1.34, for multiparous women 25 to less than 30 years after last birth). Older age at first birth (Pheterogeneity < .001 for triple-negative compared with luminal A-like breast cancer) and breastfeeding (Pheterogeneity < .001 for triple-negative compared with luminal A-like breast cancer) were associated with lower risk of triple-negative breast cancer but not with other disease subtypes. Younger age at menarche was associated with higher risk of all subtypes; older age at menopause was associated with higher risk of luminal A-like but not triple-negative breast cancer. Associations for in situ tumors were similar to luminal A-like. CONCLUSIONS: This large and comprehensive study demonstrates a distinct reproductive risk factor profile for triple-negative breast cancer compared with other subtypes, with implications for the understanding of disease etiology and risk prediction.

Air quality in an air ventilated fitness center reopening for pilot study during COVID-19 pandemic lockdown.

During COVID-19 lockdowns less people were able to fulfill the WHO recommendations on physical activity. Also, fitness centers were associated to SARS-CoV-2 superspreader events. However, the risk of infection can be strongly reduced by outdoor air ventilation. To investigate whether a reopening of fitness centers can be justified, CO 2 concentration was measured during four days in a fitness center. Except for one room, the observed CO 2 concentrations were mainly under 800 ppm, which stands for high air quality. The strong decrease of CO 2 concentration during the 15 min evacuations following each hour of workout, speaks for the functionality of the ventilation system. In particular, the number of people present in the studio has a strong impact on the estimated CO 2 value. In a linear mixed model, an additional CO 2 concentration of 2.24 ppm (95 % confidence interval [2.04, 2.43]) was estimated for this setting with a total volume of 4065 m 3 in the fitness center and a possible air change rate per hour up to 10. This means, that for 45 visitors, 100 ppm can be added to the predicted concentration. To summarize, a combination of ventilation, restriction of the number of visitors and surveying the CO 2 concentration allowing for further restrictions in case of need, seems to be an adequate means to reduce the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection in fitness centers.

Dynamics, outcomes and prerequisites of the first SARS-CoV-2 superspreading event in Germany in February 2020: a cross-sectional epidemiological study.

OBJECTIVES: The first German SARS-CoV-2 outbreak was a superspreading event in Gangelt, North Rhine-Westphalia, during indoor carnival festivities called 'Kappensitzung' (15 February 2020). We determined SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR positivity rate, SARS-CoV-2-specific antibodies, and analysed the conditions and dynamics of superspreading, including ventilation, setting dimensions, distance from infected persons and behavioural patterns. DESIGN: In a cross-sectional epidemiological study (51 days postevent), participants were asked to give blood, pharyngeal swabs and complete self-administered questionnaires. SETTING: The SARS-CoV-2 superspreading event took place during festivities in the small community of Gangelt in February 2020. This 5-hour event included 450 people (6-79 years of age) in a building of 27 m × 13.20 m × 4.20 m. PARTICIPANTS: Out of 450 event participants, 411 volunteered to participate in this study. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Primary outcome: infection status (determined by IgG ELISA). SECONDARY OUTCOME: symptoms (determined by questionnaire). RESULTS: Overall, 46% (n=186/404) of participants had been infected, and their spatial distribution was associated with proximity to the ventilation system (OR 1.39, 95% CI 0.86 to 2.25). Risk of infection was highly associated with age: children (OR 0.33, 95% CI 0.267 to 0.414) and young adults (age 18-25 years) had a lower risk of infection than older participants (average risk increase of 28% per 10 years). Behavioural differences were also risk associated including time spent outside (OR 0.55, (95% CI 0.33 to 0.91) or smoking (OR 0.32, 95% CI 0.124 to 0.81). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings underline the importance of proper indoor ventilation for future events. Lower susceptibility of children/young adults indicates their limited involvement in superspreading.

Prospective evaluation of a breast-cancer risk model integrating classical risk factors and polygenic risk in 15 cohorts from six countries.

BACKGROUND: Rigorous evaluation of the calibration and discrimination of breast-cancer risk-prediction models in prospective cohorts is critical for applications under clinical guidelines. We comprehensively evaluated an integrated model incorporating classical risk factors and a 313-variant polygenic risk score (PRS) to predict breast-cancer risk. METHODS: Fifteen prospective cohorts from six countries with 239 340 women (7646 incident breast-cancer cases) of European ancestry aged 19-75 years were included. Calibration of 5-year risk was assessed by comparing expected and observed proportions of cases overall and within risk categories. Risk stratification for women of European ancestry aged 50-70 years in those countries was evaluated by the proportion of women and future cases crossing clinically relevant risk thresholds. RESULTS: Among women <50 years old, the median (range) expected-to-observed ratio for the integrated model across 15 cohorts was 0.9 (0.7-1.0) overall and 0.9 (0.7-1.4) at the highest-risk decile; among women ≥50 years old, these were 1.0 (0.7-1.3) and 1.2 (0.7-1.6), respectively. The proportion of women identified above a 3% 5-year risk threshold (used for recommending risk-reducing medications in the USA) ranged from 7.0% in Germany (∼841 000 of 12 million) to 17.7% in the USA (∼5.3 of 30 million). At this threshold, 14.7% of US women were reclassified by adding the PRS to classical risk factors, with identification of 12.2% of additional future cases. CONCLUSION: Integrating a 313-variant PRS with classical risk factors can improve the identification of European-ancestry women at elevated risk who could benefit from targeted risk-reducing strategies under current clinical guidelines.

Post-Contrast Acute Kidney Injury after Acute Stroke-Insights from a German Tertiary Care Center.

BACKGROUND: Our aim was to investigate the relationship between additional iodinated contrast medium (CM) application for acute stroke imaging and Post-Contrast Acute Kidney Injury (PC-AKI). METHODS: We performed a retrospective analysis of consecutive patients with acute stroke who received a CT angiogram (CTA) with or without additional CT perfusion (CTP) at admission between 2017 and 2020. The primary endpoint was the incidence of PC-AKI. Potential causes of renal function impairment were recorded and logistic regression was performed to determine predictors of PC-AKI. RESULTS: Of 3134 cases screened, n = 989 met the predefined inclusion criteria. PC-AKI occurred in 22 (5.4%) patients who received CTA only and 18 (3.1%) patients who received CTA and additional CTP (unadjusted OR, CI; 0.59, 0.29-1.05). In 31/40 (77.5%) patients who suffered PC-AKI, a non-CM-related cause of renal function impairment was identified. Stroke etiology (hemorrhagic vs. ischemic) and indicators of prior kidney disease were independent predictors of PC-AKI. CONCLUSIONS: Additional administration of CM for perfusion imaging in acute stroke did not show a relevant influence on the occurrence of PC-AKI. Patients with intracranial hemorrhage and/or prior kidney disease are at particular risk of developing AKI.

Estimating the Breast Cancer Burden in Germany and Implications for Risk-based Screening.

In Germany, it is currently recommended that women start mammographic breast cancer screening at age 50. However, recently updated guidelines state that for women younger than 50 and older than 70 years of age, screening decisions should be based on individual risk. International clinical guidelines recommend starting screening when a woman's 5-year risk of breast cancer exceeds 1.7%. We thus compared the performance of the current age-based screening practice with an alternative risk-adapted approach using data from a German population representative survey. We found that 10,498,000 German women ages 50-69 years are eligible for mammographic screening based on age alone. Applying the 5-year risk threshold of 1.7% to individual breast cancer risk estimated from a model that considers a woman's reproductive and personal characteristics, 39,000 German women ages 40-49 years would additionally be eligible. Among those women, the number needed to screen to detect one breast cancer case, NNS, was 282, which was close to the NNS = 292 among all 50- to 69-year-old women. In contrast, NNS = 703 for the 113,000 German women ages 50-69 years old with 5-year breast cancer risk <0.8%, the median 5-year breast cancer risk for German women ages 45-49 years, which we used as a low-risk threshold. For these low-risk women, longer screening intervals might be considered to avoid unnecessary diagnostic procedures. In conclusion, we show that risk-adapted mammographic screening could benefit German women ages 40-49 years who are at elevated breast cancer risk and reduce cost and burden among low-risk women ages 50-69 years. PREVENTION RELEVANCE: We show that a risk-based approach to mammography screening for German women can help detect breast cancer in women ages 40-49 years with increased risk and reduce screening costs and burdens for low-risk women ages 50-69 years. However, before recommending a particular implementation of a risk-based mammographic screening approach, further investigations of models and thresholds used are needed.

Seasonality of Non-SARS, Non-MERS Coronaviruses and the Impact of Meteorological Factors.

BACKGROUND: Seasonality is a characteristic of some respiratory viruses. The aim of our study was to evaluate the seasonality and the potential effects of different meteorological factors on the detection rate of the non-SARS coronavirus detection by PCR. METHODS: We performed a retrospective analysis of 12,763 respiratory tract sample results (288 positive and 12,475 negative) for non-SARS, non-MERS coronaviruses (NL63, 229E, OC43, HKU1). The effect of seven single weather factors on the coronavirus detection rate was fitted in a logistic regression model with and without adjusting for other weather factors. RESULTS: Coronavirus infections followed a seasonal pattern peaking from December to March and plunged from July to September. The seasonal effect was less pronounced in immunosuppressed patients compared to immunocompetent patients. Different automatic variable selection processes agreed on selecting the predictors temperature, relative humidity, cloud cover and precipitation as remaining predictors in the multivariable logistic regression model, including all weather factors, with low ambient temperature, low relative humidity, high cloud cover and high precipitation being linked to increased coronavirus detection rates. CONCLUSIONS: Coronavirus infections followed a seasonal pattern, which was more pronounced in immunocompetent patients compared to immunosuppressed patients. Several meteorological factors were associated with the coronavirus detection rate. However, when mutually adjusting for all weather factors, only temperature, relative humidity, precipitation and cloud cover contributed independently to predicting the coronavirus detection rate.

Development and validation of a lifestyle-based model for colorectal cancer risk prediction: the LiFeCRC score.

BACKGROUND: Nutrition and lifestyle have been long established as risk factors for colorectal cancer (CRC). Modifiable lifestyle behaviours bear potential to minimize long-term CRC risk; however, translation of lifestyle information into individualized CRC risk assessment has not been implemented. Lifestyle-based risk models may aid the identification of high-risk individuals, guide referral to screening and motivate behaviour change. We therefore developed and validated a lifestyle-based CRC risk prediction algorithm in an asymptomatic European population. METHODS: The model was based on data from 255,482 participants in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study aged 19 to 70 years who were free of cancer at study baseline (1992-2000) and were followed up to 31 September 2010. The model was validated in a sample comprising 74,403 participants selected among five EPIC centres. Over a median follow-up time of 15 years, there were 3645 and 981 colorectal cancer cases in the derivation and validation samples, respectively. Variable selection algorithms in Cox proportional hazard regression and random survival forest (RSF) were used to identify the best predictors among plausible predictor variables. Measures of discrimination and calibration were calculated in derivation and validation samples. To facilitate model communication, a nomogram and a web-based application were developed. RESULTS: The final selection model included age, waist circumference, height, smoking, alcohol consumption, physical activity, vegetables, dairy products, processed meat, and sugar and confectionary. The risk score demonstrated good discrimination overall and in sex-specific models. Harrell's C-index was 0.710 in the derivation cohort and 0.714 in the validation cohort. The model was well calibrated and showed strong agreement between predicted and observed risk. Random survival forest analysis suggested high model robustness. Beyond age, lifestyle data led to improved model performance overall (continuous net reclassification improvement = 0.307 (95% CI 0.264-0.352)), and especially for young individuals below 45 years (continuous net reclassification improvement = 0.364 (95% CI 0.084-0.575)). CONCLUSIONS: LiFeCRC score based on age and lifestyle data accurately identifies individuals at risk for incident colorectal cancer in European populations and could contribute to improved prevention through motivating lifestyle change at an individual level.