Two decades of endemic dengue in Bangladesh (2000-2022): trends, seasonality, and impact of temperature and rainfall patterns on transmission dynamics.

The objectives of this study were to compare dengue virus (DENV) cases, deaths, case-fatality ratio [CFR], and meteorological parameters between the first and the recent decades of this century (2000-2010 vs. 2011-2022) and to describe the trends, seasonality, and impact of change of temperature and rainfall patterns on transmission dynamics of dengue in Bangladesh. For the period 2000-2022, dengue cases and death data from Bangladesh's Ministry of Health and Family Welfare's website, and meteorological data from the Bangladesh Meteorological Department were analyzed. A Poisson regression model was performed to identify the impact of meteorological parameters on the monthly dengue cases. A forecast of dengue cases was performed using an autoregressive integrated moving average model. Over the past 23 yr, a total of 244,246 dengue cases were reported including 849 deaths (CFR = 0.35%). The mean annual number of dengue cases increased 8 times during the second decade, with 2,216 cases during 2000-2010 vs. 18,321 cases during 2011-2022. The mean annual number of deaths doubled (21 vs. 46), but the overall CFR has decreased by one-third (0.69% vs. 0.23%). Concurrently, the annual mean temperature increased by 0.49 °C, and rainfall decreased by 314 mm with altered precipitation seasonality. Monthly mean temperature (Incidence risk ratio [IRR]: 1.26), first-lagged rainfall (IRR: 1.08), and second-lagged rainfall (IRR: 1.17) were significantly associated with monthly dengue cases. The increased local temperature and changes in rainfall seasonality might have contributed to the increased dengue cases in Bangladesh.

Current sampling and sequencing biases of Lassa mammarenavirus limit inference from phylogeography and molecular epidemiology in Lassa fever endemic regions.

Lassa fever (LF) is a potentially lethal viral haemorrhagic infection of humans caused by Lassa mammarenavirus (LASV). It is an important endemic zoonotic disease in West Africa with growing evidence for increasing frequency and sizes of outbreaks. Phylogeographic and molecular epidemiology methods have projected expansion of the Lassa fever endemic zone in the context of future global change. The Natal multimammate mouse (Mastomys natalensis) is the predominant LASV reservoir, with few studies investigating the role of other animal species. To explore host sequencing biases, all LASV nucleotide sequences and associated metadata available on GenBank (n = 2,298) were retrieved. Most data originated from Nigeria (54%), Guinea (20%) and Sierra Leone (14%). Data from non-human hosts (n = 703) were limited and only 69 sequences encompassed complete genes. We found a strong positive correlation between the number of confirmed human cases and sequences at the country level (r = 0.93 (95% Confidence Interval = 0.71-0.98), p < 0.001) but no correlation exists between confirmed cases and the number of available rodent sequences (r = -0.019 (95% C.I. -0.71-0.69), p = 0.96). Spatial modelling of sequencing effort highlighted current biases in locations of available sequences, with increased sequencing effort observed in Southern Guinea and Southern Nigeria. Phylogenetic analyses showed geographic clustering of LASV lineages, suggestive of isolated events of human-to-rodent transmission and the emergence of currently circulating strains of LASV from the year 1498 in Nigeria. Overall, the current study highlights significant geographic limitations in LASV surveillance, particularly, in non-human hosts. Further investigation of the non-human reservoir of LASV, alongside expanded surveillance, are required for precise characterisation of the emergence and dispersal of LASV. Accurate surveillance of LASV circulation in non-human hosts is vital to guide early detection and initiation of public health interventions for future Lassa fever outbreaks.

Global prioritization of endemic zoonotic diseases for conducting surveillance in domestic animals to protect public health.

Zoonotic diseases (zoonoses) originating from domestic animals pose a significant risk to people's health and livelihoods, in addition to jeopardizing animal health and production. Effective surveillance of endemic zoonoses at the animal level is crucial to assessing the disease burden and risk, and providing early warning to prevent epidemics in animals and spillover to humans. Here we aimed to prioritize and characterize zoonoses for which surveillance in domestic animals is important to prevent human infections at a global scale. A multi-criteria qualitative approach was used, where disease-specific information was obtained across literature of the leading international health organizations. Thirty-two zoonoses were prioritized, all of which have multi-regional spread, cause unexceptional human infections and have domestic animal hosts as important sources or sentinels of zoonotic infections. Most diseases involve multiple animal hosts and/or modes of zoonotic transmission, where a lack of specific clinical signs in animals further complicates surveillance. We discuss the challenges of animal health surveillance in endemic and resource-limited settings, as well as potential avenues for improvement such as the multi-disease, multi-sectoral and digital surveillance approaches. Our study will support global capacity-building efforts to strengthen the surveillance and control of endemic zoonoses at their animal sources. This article is part of the theme issue 'Challenges and opportunities in the fight against neglected tropical diseases: a decade from the London Declaration on NTDs'.

Occurrence of tuberculosis among people exposed to cattle in Bangladesh.

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis (TB) has been an important public health concern in Bangladesh. The most common cause of human TB is Mycobacterium tuberculosis, while bovine TB is caused by Mycobacterium bovis. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to determine the frequency of TB in individuals with occupational exposure to cattle and to detect Mycobacterium bovis among cattle in slaughterhouses in Bangladesh. METHODS: Between August 2014 and September 2015, an observational study was conducted in two government chest disease hospitals, one cattle market, and two slaughterhouses. [Correction added on 27 June 2023, after first online publication: In the preceding sentence, the year "2014" has been added after the word "August".] Sputum samples were collected from individuals who met the criteria for suspected TB and had been exposed to cattle. Tissue samples were collected from cattle that had low body condition score(s). Both humans and cattle samples were screened for acid-fast bacilli (AFB) by Ziehl-Neelsen (Z-N) staining and cultured for Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex (MTC). Region of difference (RD) 9-based polymerase chain reaction (PCR) was also performed to identify Mycobacterium spp. We also conducted Spoligotyping to identify the specific strain of Mycobacterium spp. RESULTS: Sputum was collected from a total of 412 humans. The median age of human participants was 35 (IQR: 25-50) years. Twenty-five (6%) human sputum specimens were positive for AFB, and 44 (11%) were positive for MTC by subsequent culture. All (N = 44) culture-positive isolates were confirmed as Mycobacterium tuberculosis by RD9 PCR. Besides, 10% of cattle workers were infected with Mycobacterium tuberculosis in the cattle market. Of all TB (caused by Mycobacterium tuberculosis) infected individuals, 6.8% of individuals were resistant to one or two anti-TB drugs. The majority of the sampled cattle (67%) were indigenous breeds. No Mycobacterium bovis was detected in cattle. CONCLUSIONS: We did not detect any TB cases caused by Mycobacterium bovis in humans during the study. However, we detected TB cases caused by Mycobacterium tuberculosis in all humans, including cattle market workers.

The 2022 dengue outbreak in Bangladesh: hypotheses for the late resurgence of cases and fatalities.

Bangladesh reported the highest number of annual deaths (n = 281) related to dengue virus infection in 2022 since the virus reappeared in the country in 2000. Earlier studies showed that >92% of the annual cases occurred between the months of August and September. The 2022 outbreak is characterized by late onset of dengue cases with unusually higher deaths in colder months, that is, October-December. Here we present possible hypotheses and explanations for this late resurgence of dengue cases. First, in 2022, the rainfall started late in the season. Compared to the monthly average rainfall for September and October between 2003 and 2021, there was 137 mm of additional monthly rainfall recorded in September and October 2022. Furthermore, the year 2022 was relatively warmer with a 0.71°C increased temperature than the mean annual temperature of the past 20 yr. Second, a new dengue virus serotype, DENV-4, had recently reintroduced/reappeared in 2022 and become the dominant serotype in the country for a large naïve population. Third, the post-pandemic return of normalcy after 2 yr of nonpharmaceutical social measures facilitates extra mosquito breeding habitats, especially in construction sites. Community engagement and regular monitoring and destruction of Aedes mosquitoes' habitats should be prioritized to control dengue virus outbreaks in Bangladesh.

Phenotypic and Genotypic Characteristics of Antimicrobial Resistance in Citrobacter freundii Isolated from Domestic Ducks (Anas platyrhynchos domesticus) in Bangladesh.

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) in Citrobacter freundii poses a serious challenge as this species is one of the sources of nosocomial infection and causes diarrheal infections in humans. Ducks could be the potential source of multidrug-resistant (MDR) C. freundii; however, AMR profiles in C. freundii from non-human sources in Bangladesh have remained elusive. This study aimed to detect C. freundii in domestic ducks (Anas platyrhynchos domesticus) in Bangladesh and to determine their phenotypic and genotypic antibiotic susceptibility patterns. A total of 150 cloacal swabs of diseased domestic ducks were screened using culturing, staining, biochemical, polymerase chain reaction (PCR), and matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionization time-of-flight (MALDI-TOF) to detect C. freundii. Phenotypic and genotypic antibiotic susceptibility patterns were done by the disk diffusion method and PCR, respectively. In total, 16.67% (25/150) of the samples were positive for C. freundii. C. freundii isolates showed a range of 20% to 96% resistance to cefotaxime, gentamicin, levofloxacin, ciprofloxacin, cotrimoxazole, tetracycline, ampicillin, and cephalexin. More than 60% of the isolates were phenotypically MDR, and the index of multiple antibiotic resistance ranged from 0.07 to 0.79. Genes encoding resistance to beta-lactams [blaTEM-1-88% (22/25), blaCMY-2-56% (14/25), blaCMY-9-8% (2/25), and blaCTX-M-14-20% (5/25)], sulfonamides [sul1-52% (13/25), sul2-24% (6/25)], tetracyclines [tetA-32% (8/25) and tetB-4% (1/25)], aminoglycosides [aacC4-16% (4/25)], and fluoroquinolones [qnrA-4% (1/25), qnrB-12% (3/25), and qnrS-4% (1/25)] were detected in the isolated C. freundii. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study in Bangladesh to detect MDR C. freundii with their associated resistance genes from duck samples. We suggest addressing the burden of diseases in ducks and humans and associated AMR issues using the One Health approach.

Human Exposure to Bats, Rodents and Monkeys in Bangladesh.

Bats, rodents and monkeys are reservoirs for emerging zoonotic infections. We sought to describe the frequency of human exposure to these animals and the seasonal and geographic variation of these exposures in Bangladesh. During 2013-2016, we conducted a cross-sectional survey in a nationally representative sample of 10,002 households from 1001 randomly selected communities. We interviewed household members about exposures to bats, rodents and monkeys, including a key human-bat interface-raw date palm sap consumption. Respondents reported observing rodents (90%), bats (52%) and monkeys (2%) in or around their households, although fewer reported direct contact. The presence of monkeys around the household was reported more often in Sylhet division (7%) compared to other divisions. Households in Khulna (17%) and Rajshahi (13%) were more likely to report drinking date palm sap than in other divisions (1.5-5.6%). Date palm sap was mostly consumed during winter with higher frequencies in January (16%) and February (12%) than in other months (0-5.6%). There was a decreasing trend in drinking sap over the three years. Overall, we observed substantial geographic and seasonal patterns in human exposure to animals that could be sources of zoonotic disease. These findings could facilitate targeting emerging zoonoses surveillance, research and prevention efforts to areas and seasons with the highest levels of exposure.

The disproportionate case-fatality ratio of COVID-19 between countries with the highest vaccination rates and the rest of the world.

Objectives: The global reported cumulative case-fatality ratios (rCFRs) and excess mortality rates of the 20 countries with the highest coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination rates, the rest of the world and Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) were compared before and after the commencement of vaccination programmes. Methods: A time series model was used to understand the trend of rCFR over time, and a generalized linear mixed model was used to understand the effect of vaccination on rCFR. Results: By 31 December 2022, an average of 260.3 doses of COVID-19 vaccine per 100 population had been administered in the top 20 vaccinated countries, compared with 152.1 doses in the rest of the world and 51.2 doses in SSA. The mean rCFR of COVID-19 had decreased by 69.0% in the top 20 vaccinated countries, 26.5% in the rest of the world and 7.6% in SSA. Excess mortality had decreased by 48.7% in the top 20 vaccinated countries, compared with 62.5% in the rest of the world and 60.7% in SSA. In a generalized linear mixed model, the reported number of vaccine doses administered (/100 population) (odds ratio 0.64) was associated with a steeper reduction in COVID-19 rCFR. Conclusions: Vaccine equity and faster roll-out across the world is critically important in reducing COVID-19 transmission and CFR.

How prepared is the world? Identifying weaknesses in existing assessment frameworks for global health security through a One Health approach.

The COVID-19 pandemic has exposed faults in the way we assess preparedness and response capacities for public health emergencies. Existing frameworks are limited in scope, and do not sufficiently consider complex social, economic, political, regulatory, and ecological factors. One Health, through its focus on the links among humans, animals, and ecosystems, is a valuable approach through which existing assessment frameworks can be analysed and new ways forward proposed. Although in the past few years advances have been made in assessment tools such as the International Health Regulations Joint External Evaluation, a rapid and radical increase in ambition is required. To sufficiently account for the range of complex systems in which health emergencies occur, assessments should consider how problems are defined across stakeholders and the wider sociopolitical environments in which structures and institutions operate. Current frameworks do little to consider anthropogenic factors in disease emergence or address the full array of health security hazards across the social-ecological system. A complex and interdependent set of challenges threaten human, animal, and ecosystem health, and we cannot afford to overlook important contextual factors, or the determinants of these shared threats. Health security assessment frameworks should therefore ensure that the process undertaken to prioritise and build capacity adheres to core One Health principles and that interventions and outcomes are assessed in terms of added value, trade-offs, and cobenefits across human, animal, and environmental health systems.

Measures, Gaps, and Mitigation Strategies in Bangladesh's COVID-19 Response.

The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) spread rapidly from China to most other countries around the world in early 2020 killing millions of people. To prevent virus spread, world governments implemented a variety of response measures. This paper's objectives were to discuss the country's adopted measures to combat the virus through June 2020, identify gaps in the measures' effectiveness, and offer possible mitigations to those gaps. The measures taken included screening device deployment across international air and land ports, flight suspensions and closures from COVID-19 affected countries, and declaration and extension of a national public holiday (equivalent to lockdowns in other countries). Identified gaps were test kit, PPE, ICU beds, and ventilator shortages, limited public awareness, and insufficient coordination and collaboration among national and international partners. Proper and timely risk mapping, preparedness, communication, coordination, and collaboration among governments and organizations, and public awareness and engagement would have provided sufficient COVID-19 mitigation in Bangladesh.

Rift Valley fever seropositivity in humans and domestic ruminants and associated risk factors in Sengerema, Ilala, and Rufiji districts, Tanzania.

OBJECTIVES: Data on Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) prevalence in urban settings and pastoral areas of Tanzania are scarce. We performed a cross-sectional study of RVFV seroprevalence and determinants in humans and animals from Ilala, Rufiji, and Sengerema districts of Tanzania. METHODS: Blood samples from the study participants were tested for anti-RVFV immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibodies using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Logistic regression was used to determine association between exposure risk practices and RVFV seropositivity. RESULTS: The study involved 664 humans, 361 cattle, 394 goats, and 242 sheep. The overall anti-RVFV IgG seroprevalence in humans and animals was 2.1% (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.01-0.04) and 9.5% (n = 95, 95% CI 0.08-0.12), respectively. Seroprevalence in humans in Rufiji, Ilala, and Sengerema was 3.0% (n = 225, 95% CI 0.01-0.06), 1.8% (n = 230, 95% CI-0.005- 0.04), and 1.4% (n = 209, 95% CI 0.01-0.04), respectively (P >0.05). Seroprevalence in animals in Sengerema, Rufiji, and Ilala was 12.1% (n = 40, 95% CI 0.09-0.16), 11.1% (n = 37, 95% CI 0.08-0.15), and 5.4% (n = 18, 95% CI 0.03-0.08), respectively (P = 0.006). Handling of carcasses increased the odds of RVFV seropositivity 12-fold (odds ratio 11.84, 95% CI 1.97-71.16). CONCLUSION: The study confirms previous occurrence of RVFV in multiple species in the study districts. Animal handling practices appear to be essential determinants of seropositivity.

Increased outbreaks of monkeypox highlight gaps in actual disease burden in Sub-Saharan Africa and in animal reservoirs.

We explain research gaps on Monkeypox (MPX) virus epidemiology in endemic countries and present hypotheses for the recent increase of MPX cases in West Africa as a possible explanation for the current epidemic in Europe, America, and Australia. The detection of >400 MPX cases in less than a month in May 2022, across many countries underscores the epidemic potential of MPX in humans and demonstrates several important research gaps. First, the true burden of MPX in West and Central Africa is poorly understood, although it is critical for prevention and control of future outbreaks. Second, the diversity and extent of the animal reservoir remain unknown. We hypothesize that the synanthropic rodent population has increased in recent years in Africa leading to more human-rodent interactions and thus increased transmission of MPXV. We further hypothesise that nearly 45 years after the end of routine smallpox vaccination, the larger and more interconnected immune-naïve population has crossed a threshold resulting in more sustainable human-to-human transmission of MPXV. The current epidemic in the Western World is possibly a consequence of increased local transmission of MPXV in Africa. A new estimation of the basic and effective reproduction rate (R0 and Re) in different populations is required. National, regional, and international collaborations are needed to address research gaps related to MPX outbreaks.

Antimicrobial Resistance Patterns and Risk Factors Associated with Salmonella spp. Isolates from Poultry Farms in the East Coast of Peninsular Malaysia: A Cross-Sectional Study.

The burden of antimicrobial use in agricultural settings is one of the greatest challenges facing global health and food security in the modern era. Malaysian poultry operations are a relevant but understudied component of epidemiology of antimicrobial resistance. We aimed to identify the prevalence, resistance patterns, and risk factors associated with Salmonella isolates from poultry farms in three states of East Coast Peninsular Malaysia. Between 8 February 2019 and 23 February 2020, a total of 371 samples (cloacal swabs = 259; faecal = 84; Sewage = 14, Tap water = 14) was collected from poultry operations. Characteristics of the sampled farms and associated risk factors were obtained using semi-structured questionnaires. Presumptive Salmonella spp. isolates were identified based on colony morphology with subsequent biochemical and PCR confirmation. Susceptibility of isolates was tested against a panel of 12 antimicrobials using disk diffusion method. Our findings revealed that the proportion of Salmonella spp.-positive isolates across sample source were as following: cloacal swab (46.3%, 120/259); faecal (59.5%, 50/84); in tap water (14.3%, 2/14); and in sewage sample (35.7%, 5/14). Isolates from faecal (15.5%, 13/84), cloacal (1.2%, 3/259), and sewage (7.1%, 1/14) samples were significantly resistant to at least five classes of antimicrobials. Resistance to Sulfonamides class (52%, 92/177) was predominantly observed followed by tetracycline (39.5%, 70/177) and aminoglycosides (35.6%, 63/177). Multivariate regression analysis identified intensive management system (OR = 1.55, 95% CI = 1.00-2.40) as a leading driver of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) acquisition. A prevalence of resistance to common antimicrobials was recorded for sulfamethoxazole (33.9%), tetracycline (39.5%), and trimethoprim-sulphamethoxazole (37.9%). A close association between different risk factors and the prevalence of AMR of Salmonella strains suggests a concern over rising misuse of veterinary antimicrobials that may contribute to the emergence and evolution of multidrug-resistant pathogen isolates. One Health approach is recommended to achieve a positive health outcome for all species.

Seroprevalence and associated risk factors of chikungunya, dengue, and Zika in eight districts in Tanzania.

BACKGROUND: This study was conducted to determine the seroprevalence and risk factors of chikungunya (CHIKV), dengue (DENV), and Zika (ZIKV) viruses in Tanzania. METHODS: The study covered the districts of Buhigwe, Kalambo, Kilindi, Kinondoni, Kondoa, Kyela, Mvomero, and Ukerewe in Tanzania. Blood samples were collected from individuals recruited from households and healthcare facilities. An ELISA was used to screen for immunoglobulin G antibodies against CHIKV, DENV, and ZIKV. RESULTS: A total of 1818 participants (median age 34 years) were recruited. The overall CHIKV, DENV, and ZIKV seroprevalence rates were 28.0%, 16.1%, and 6.8%, respectively. CHIKV prevalence was highest in Buhigwe (46.8%), DENV in Kinondoni (43.8%), and ZIKV in Ukerewe (10.6%) and Mvomero (10.6%). Increasing age and frequent mosquito bites were significantly associated with CHIKV and DENV seropositivity (P < 0.05). Having piped water or the presence of stagnant water around the home (P < 0.01) were associated with higher odds of DENV seropositivity. Fever was significantly associated with increased odds of CHIKV seropositivity (P < 0.001). Visiting mines had higher odds of ZIKV seropositivity (P < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: These findings indicate that DENV, CHIKV, and ZIKV are circulating in diverse ecological zones of Tanzania. There is a need to strengthen the control of mosquito-borne viral diseases in Tanzania.

Diagnosis of Chikungunya Virus in Febrile Patients From a Malaria Holoendemic Area.

INTRODUCTION: Accurate diagnosis of chikungunya (CHIK) is essential for effective disease management and surveillance. In a cohort of febrile Congolese patients, available diagnostic methods widely used in CHIK diagnosis were evaluated. In addition, plasma cytokines were quantified in CHIK patients and those coinfected with malaria compared with healthy controls. METHODS: Between June and November 2019, a total of 107 febrile patients with suspected CHIK were subjected to differential diagnosis both for CHIK and malaria. Patients were screened for CHIK virus using molecular diagnosis by real-time PCR, serologic testing by IgM-specific and IgG-specific ELISAs, and lateral flow-based method with rapid diagnostic test (RDT), while malaria diagnosis was confirmed by PCR methods. Pro-inflammatory (IL-12, IL-16, IFN-γ, TNF-α) and anti-inflammatory (IL-4, IL-10, IL-13) cytokines were quantified in patients and healthy controls by ELISA assays. RESULTS: Molecular diagnoses revealed that 57% (61/107) were positive for CHIK by RT-PCR, while serologic testing revealed 31% (33/107) and 9% (10/107) seropositivity for anti- IgM and IgG, respectively. None of the patients were CHIK RDT-positive. Also, 27% (29/107) were PCR-positive for malaria. Among the malaria-positive patients, 14% (15/107) were co-infected with CHIK and 13% (14/107) were monoinfection. Plasma IL-12 and TNF-α levels were increased in patients with malaria and IL-13 levels were increased in patients with co-infection (p<0.05). CONCLUSION: Co-infection of malaria and CHIK were common in febrile Congolese patients. Real-time PCR was a better tool for detecting actual occurrences of CHIK in a malaria holoendemic area.

Estimation of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) reproduction number and case fatality rate: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Realizing the transmission potential and the magnitude of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) aids public health monitoring, strategies, and preparation. Two fundamental parameters, the basic reproduction number (R 0) and case fatality rate (CFR) of COVID-19, help in this understanding process. The objective of this study was to estimate the R 0 and CFR of COVID-19 and assess whether the parameters vary in different regions of the world. METHODS: We carried out a systematic review to find the reported estimates of the R 0 and the CFR in articles from international databases between January 1 and August 31, 2020. Random-effect models and Forest plots were implemented to evaluate the mean effect size of R 0 and the CFR. Furthermore, R 0 and CFR of the studies were quantified based on geographic location, the tests/thousand population, and the median population age of the countries where the studies were conducted. To assess statistical heterogeneity among the selected articles, the I 2 statistic and the Cochran's Q test were used. RESULTS: Forty-five studies involving R 0 and 34 studies involving CFR were included. The pooled estimation of R 0 was 2.69 (95% CI: 2.40, 2.98), and that of the CFR was 2.67 (2.25, 3.13). The CFR in different regions of the world varied significantly, from 2.49 (2.08, 2.94) in Asia to 3.40 (2.81, 4.04) in North America. We observed higher mean CFR values for the countries with lower tests (3.15 vs 2.16) and greater median population age (3.13 vs 2.27). However, R 0 did not vary significantly in different regions of the world. CONCLUSIONS: An R 0 of 2.69 and a CFR of 2.67 indicate the severity of the COVID-19. Although R 0 and CFR may vary over time, space, and demographics, we recommend considering these figures in control and prevention measures.