Characterisation and outcomes of different subsets of low disease activity states in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus.

OBJECTIVES: The lupus low disease activity state (LLDAS) allows for certain clinical and/or serological activity of SLE, provided overall disease activity does not exceed predefined cut-offs. This study aimed to evaluate the outcomes of patients who achieved LLDAS with clinical activity, serological activity only or neither clinical nor serological activity. METHODS: Patients with SLE enrolled in a prospective multinational cohort from March 2013 to December 2020 who were in LLDAS at least once were included. Visits that fulfilled both LLDAS and Definition of Remission in SLE (DORIS) criteria were excluded. RESULTS: 2099 patients were included, with median follow-up of 3.5 (IQR 1.3-5.8) years. At 6150 visits, patients were in LLDAS but not DORIS criteria; of these 1280 (20.8%) had some clinical activity, 3102 (50.4%) visits had serological activity only and 1768 (28.8%) visits had neither clinical nor serological activity. Multivariable regression analysis showed that compared with non-LLDAS, all three subsets of LLDAS had a protective association with flares in the ensuing 6 months and damage accrual in the ensuing 36 months. LLDAS with no clinical or serological activity had a significantly stronger protective association with severe flares in the ensuing 6 months compared with LLDAS with clinical activity (HR 0.47, 95% CI (0.27 to 0.82), p=0.007). CONCLUSIONS: LLDAS without any clinical activity accounted for almost 80% of LLDAS visits. This study confirms that all subsets of LLDAS are associated with reduced flare and damage accrual. However, LLDAS without any clinical or serological activity has the strongest protective association with severe flares.

Prevalence and Outcomes of Gastrointestinal Manifestations in an Australian Scleroderma Cohort.

OBJECTIVE: The gastrointestinal tract (GIT) is the most commonly affected internal organ in systemic sclerosis (SSc). We sought to determine the prevalence and impact of GIT symptoms on survival and patient-reported outcomes. METHODS: A total of 907 consecutive patients from the Australian Scleroderma Cohort Study who had prospectively completed the University of California, Los Angeles, Scleroderma Clinical Trials Consortium Gastrointestinal Tract 2.0 Questionnaire (UCLA GIT) between 2015 and 2021 were included. The associations between UCLA GIT scores and physical function (Scleroderma Health Assessment Questionnaire), quality of life (QoL; Short Form 36), mood (Patient-Reported Outcomes Measurement Information System [PROMIS] anxiety and depression domains), fatigue (Functional Assessment of Chronic Illness Therapy-Fatigue score), and employment were investigated using multivariable population-averaged panel models using generalized estimating equations (GEEs). Kaplan-Meier curves and multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression models were used to evaluate survival according to total UCLA GIT scores. RESULTS: GIT symptoms were reported in 87% of participants, with 46% to 52% reporting moderate to very severe symptoms of reflux, distension, diarrhea, and constipation. Higher total UCLA GIT scores were associated with worse QoL, physical function, fatigue, anxiety, and depression (P < 0.001). In the multivariable GEE analysis, moderate and severe to very severe total scores, reflux scores, and distension scores were associated with worse physical function, QoL, fatigue, anxiety, and depression compared to mild scores (P < 0.05). Patients with severe total scores and diarrhea scores were more likely to be unemployed compared to those with mild scores (P < 0.05). UCLA GIT total scores were not independently associated with death in our cohort. CONCLUSION: GIT manifestations are common in SSc and negatively impact QoL, physical function, and employment but are not directly associated with increased death.

Comparison of Three Physician Global Assessment Instruments in Systemic Sclerosis.

OBJECTIVE: Physician global assessments (PhyGAs) are variably applied in systemic sclerosis (SSc) clinical trials. The comparability of different PhyGA results is unknown. We sought to assess the comparability of results from three different PhyGA instruments simultaneously applied in the Australian Scleroderma Cohort Study (ASCS). METHODS: Using data from 1,965 ASCS participants, we assessed the correlation between results of three PhyGA assessments: (1) overall health, (2) activity, and (3) damage. We evaluated the concordance of change in each PhyGA between study visits. Ordered logistic regression analysis was used to evaluate the clinical associations of each PhyGA. RESULTS: The absolute scores of each PhyGA were strongly correlated at individual study visits. Concordant changes of the PhyGA scores occurred between 50% of study visits. Only patient-reported breathlessness was associated with all three PhyGA scores (overall health: odds ratio [OR] 1.67, P < 0.01; activity: OR 1.44, P < 0.01; damage: OR 1.32, P < 0.01). Changes in physician-assessed activity scores were also associated with patient-reported worsening skin disease (OR 1.25, P = 0.03) and fecal incontinence (OR 1.23, P = 0.01), whereas damage scores were associated with respiratory disease (pulmonary arterial hypertension: OR 1.25, P = 0.03; chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: OR 1.37, P = 0.04), as well as skin scores (OR 1.02, P < 0.01) and fecal incontinence (OR 1.21, P = 0.02). CONCLUSION: PhyGAs of overall health, activity, and damage are each associated with different SSc features, and changes in different PhyGA scores are discordant 50% of the time. Our findings suggest results of variably worded PhyGAs are not directly interchangeable and support the development of a standardized PhyGA.

Investigating the trajectory of functional disability in systemic sclerosis: group-based trajectory modelling of the Health Assessment Questionnaire-Disability Index.

OBJECTIVES: To identify the trajectories and clinical associations of functional disability in systemic sclerosis (SSc). METHODS: Australian Scleroderma Cohort Study (ASCS) participants meeting ACR/EULAR criteria for SSc recruited within 5 years of disease onset, with ≥2 Health Assessment Questionnaire-Disability Index (HAQ-DI) scores were included. Group based trajectory modelling (GBTM) was used to identify the number and shape of HAQ-DI trajectories. Between group comparisons were made using the chi-squared test, two-sample t-test or Wilcoxon rank-sum test as appropriate. Multiple logistic regression was used to identify features associated with trajectory group membership. Survival analyses were performed using Kaplan Meier and Cox proportional hazard modelling. RESULTS: We identified two HAQ-DI trajectory groups within 426 ASCS participants with incident SSc: low-stable disability (n=221, 52%), and high-increasing disability (n=205, 48%). Participants with high-increasing disability were older at disease onset, more likely to have diffuse SSc (dcSSc), cardiopulmonary disease, multimorbidity, digital ulcers, and gastrointestinal involvement (all p≤0.01), as was use of immunosuppression (p<0.01). Multimorbidity was associated with high-increasing trajectory group membership (OR3.1, 95%CI1.1-8.8, p=0.04); independently, multiple SSc features were also strongly associated including dcSSc (OR2.3, 95%CI1.3-4.2, p<0.01), proximal weakness (OR7.3, 95%CI2.0-27.1, p<0.01) and joint contractures (OR2.7, 95%CI1.3-5.3, p<0.01). High-increasing physical disability was associated with an almost two-fold increased risk of mortality (HR1.9, 95%CI1.0-3.8, p=0.05), and higher symptom burden. CONCLUSIONS: Two trajectories of functional disability in SSc were identified. Those with high-increasing functional disability had a distinct clinical phenotype and worse survival compared to those with low-stable functional disability. These data highlight the pervasive nature of physical disability in SSc, and its prognostic importance.

The burden and determinants of fatigue in incident and prevalent systemic sclerosis.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the burden and clinical associations of fatigue in systemic sclerosis (SSc) as measured by FACIT-Fatigue scores. METHODS: Australian Scleroderma Cohort Study participants with ≥1 FACIT-Fatigue score were included. Participants were divided into those with incident SSc (≤5 years SSc duration at recruitment and FACIT-Fatigue score recorded within 5 years of disease onset) or prevalent SSc (first FACIT-Fatigue score recorded >5 years after SSc onset). Generalised estimating equations were used to model change in FACIT-Fatigue scores over time, expressed as an increasing (improving) or decreasing (worsening) score. RESULTS: Of 859 participants, 215 had incident SSc and 644 prevalent SSc. First-recorded FACIT-Fatigue scores were similar in those with incident (37 units, IQR 25-45.5) and prevalent SSc (36 units, IQR 23-44; p=0.17), as were lowest-ever recorded FACIT-Fatigue scores (incident 23 units; prevalent 22 units, p=0.75). In incident SSc, higher skin scores (regression coefficient (RC) -1.5 units, 95%CI -2.3 to -0.8), PAH (RC -8.2, 95%CI -16.5 to 0.1) and reduced left ventricular function (RC -10.6, 95%CI -18.3 to -2.8) were associated with more severe fatigue. In prevalent SSc, higher skin scores (RC -0.6, 95%CI -1.3 to 0), gastrointestinal symptoms (RC -6.6, 95%CI -9.0 to -4.2), hypoalbuminaemia (RC -2.8, 95%CI -5.0 to -0.7), BMI<18.5kg/m2 (RC -6.3, 95%CI -10.3 to -2.2), raised CRP (RC -3.1, 95%CI -4.7 to -1.5), and anaemia (RC -1.7, 95%CI -3.5 to 0.1) were associated with more severe fatigue. CONCLUSIONS: The burden of fatigue is substantial in both incident and prevalent SSc. Cardiopulmonary and gastrointestinal involvement are associated with worse fatigue.

Predictive accuracy of the ASIG algorithm in a prospective systemic sclerosis cohort undergoing annual screening for pulmonary arterial hypertension.

The Australian Scleroderma Interest Group (ASIG) algorithm for screening pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) in systemic sclerosis (SSc) requires only respiratory function tests and serum N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide as first-tier tests, and is recommended in international guidelines. In this communication, we present the findings of the application of the ASIG screening algorithm to a Singaporean cohort undergoing prospective annual screening for PAH, which shows a high negative predictive value. The ASIG algorithm may offer an alternative to more complex and costly SSc-PAH screening algorithms.

Development and Initial Validation of the Novel Scleroderma Clinical Trials Consortium Activity Index.

OBJECTIVE: Accurate measurement of disease activity in systemic sclerosis (SSc) remains a significant clinical challenge. The Scleroderma Clinical Trials Consortium (SCTC) convened an Activity Index (AI) Working Group (WG) to develop a novel measure of disease activity (SCTC-AI). METHODS: Using consensus methodology, we developed a conceptual definition of disease activity. Literature review and expert consensus generated provisional SCTC-AI items, which were reduced by Delphi survey. Provisional items were weighted against a combined endpoint of morbidity and mortality, using time-dependent Cox proportional hazards regression analysis of the Australian Scleroderma Cohort Study (ASCS) (n = 1,254). External validation of the SCTC-AI was performed using data collected from 1,103 Canadian Scleroderma Research Group Study participants. RESULTS: Disease activity in SSc was defined using consensus methodology as "aspects of disease that are reversible, or can be arrested, with time and, or effective therapy." One-hundred and forty-one provisional SCTC-AI items were generated and reduced using three rounds of Delphi survey and statistical reduction and weighting, against mortality and quality of life measures, yielding a final 24-item index with a maximum possible score of 140. Survival analysis in an external cohort showed a graded relationship between disease activity scores and survival (P < 0.01). CONCLUSION: We present a novel instrument to quantify the burden of disease activity in SSc. We have employed a rigorous consensus-based process in combination with data-driven methods to develop an instrument that has face, content, and criterion validity. Further work is required to fully validate and confirm the construct and discriminative validity of the SCTC-AI.

Prognostic and functional importance of both overt and subclinical left ventricular systolic dysfunction in systemic sclerosis.

OBJECTIVES: To quantify the frequency and clinical implications of systemic sclerosis (SSc)-associated left ventricular function (LV) impairment. METHODS: Australian Scleroderma Cohort Study participants meeting ACR/EULAR criteria for SSc with ≥1 echocardiographic LVEF measurement were included. Overt LV dysfunction was indicated by reduced LV ejection fraction (LVEF) and subclinical LV dysfunction was measured using impaired LV global longitudinal strain (LV-GLS>-16 %). Those with secondary causes of LV dysfunction (myocardial ischaemia, valvulopathy and pulmonary arterial hypertension) were excluded. Chi-squared tests, two-sample t-tests or Wilcoxon rank-sum tests were used for between-group comparison as appropriate. Generalised estimating equations(GEE) were used to model longitudinal data. Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazard models were used for survival analyses. RESULTS: Of 1141 participants with no co-morbid cardiac disease, 2.4 % ever recorded a LVEF<50 %, while only 0.6 % ever recorded a LVEF≤40 %. LV-GLS data were available for 90 % of participants at one centre (n = 218). Impaired LV-GLS was detected in 21 % despite LVEF≥50 %. Those with a LVEF<50 % were more frequently male (p = 0.01) with dcSSc (p < 0.01), higher inflammatory markers (p < 0.02) and skeletal muscle disease (p < 0.05). In multivariable analyses, recording a LVEF<50 % was associated with increased mortality (HR2.3, 95 %CI1.0-4.8, p = 0.04). Impaired LV-GLS was also associated with poorer survival in univariable analyses (HR3.4, 95 %CI1.0-11.8, p = 0.05). Those with a LVEF<50 % more frequently recorded WHO Class III/IV dyspnoea (OR3.5, 95 %CI1.6-7.7, p < 0.01), with shorter six-minute walk distance (p = 0.01), higher Health Assessment Questionnaire-Disability Index scores (p < 0.01) and lower Short Form-36 Physical Component Summary scores (p = 0.02). Increased dyspnoea (WHO Class III/IV dyspnoea; OR3.6, 95 %CI1.4-9.2, p < 0.01) was also seen in those with impaired LV-GLS. CONCLUSIONS: Both overt and subclinical SSc-associated LV dysfunction are associated with worse survival and impaired physical function. The frequency of abnormal LV-GLS in those with consistently normal LVEF suggests an under-appreciated burden of subtle LV systolic dysfunction in SSc that has a significant impact on patient symptomatology.

Outcomes of Patients With Diffuse Systemic Sclerosis Eligible for Autologous Stem Cell Transplantation Treated With Conventional Therapy.

OBJECTIVE: The study objective was to determine the event-free survival (EFS) of Australian patients with diffuse cutaneous systemic sclerosis (dcSSc) who met eligibility criteria for autologous stem cell transplant (ASCT) in previously published randomized controlled trials but were not treated with ASCT. METHODS: Patients who met inclusion criteria for the Autologous Stem Cell Transplantation International Scleroderma (ASTIS) and Scleroderma: Cyclophosphamide Or Transplantation (SCOT) trials were identified from the multicenter Australian Scleroderma Cohort Study (ASCS). EFS (survival without cardiac, renal, or pulmonary failure or death) at 4 years was assessed. ASCS patients who had already undergone transplantation were excluded from analysis. RESULTS: Of the 492 patients with dcSSc in the ASCS, 56 met ASTIS inclusion criteria for ASCT (56 of 492 [11.4%]) and 30 met SCOT inclusion criteria (30 of 492 [6.1%]). An additional 11 patients met ASTIS or SCOT inclusion criteria, but they were excluded due to severe organ manifestations. EFS at 4 years in ASCS patients meeting ASTIS inclusion criteria was 83.3% and in ASCS patients meeting SCOT inclusion criteria was 81.2%. EFS at 4 years in ASCS patients who met ASTIS and SCOT inclusion but also exclusion criteria was 46.7% and 45.7%, respectively. CONCLUSION: ASCS patients meeting ASTIS and/or SCOT inclusion criteria who were not treated with ASCT have similar EFS at 4 years as patients receiving ASCT and better EFS than those receiving cyclophosphamide in the ASTIS and SCOT trials. This may reflect confounders unable to be controlled for, including survivor bias, but may also reflect improved standard of care for dcSSc over time.

Quantifying the Need for Specialist Palliative Care Management in Patients With Systemic Sclerosis.

OBJECTIVE: The importance of early integration of palliative care in the management of complex multisystem diseases has been recognized. In this study, we aimed to quantify the need for specialist palliative care in patients with systemic sclerosis (SSc). METHODS: Using data from 875 patients enrolled in the Australian Scleroderma Cohort Study, we defined the need for palliative care as a high symptom burden at two or more consecutive study visits, at ≥50% of overall study visits, or at the study visit immediately before death. Symptoms of interest included breathlessness, fatigue, pain, depression, anxiety, constipation, and diarrhea. Logistic regression analyses evaluated the association between individual symptoms and SSc manifestations. Linear regression analysis evaluated the relationship between palliative care needs and quality of life (QoL) and function. RESULTS: Almost three-quarters of patients (72.69%) met the threshold for specialist palliative care needs. Severe fatigue (54.17%) was most common, followed by breathlessness (23.66%) and severe constipation (21.14%). Concurrent severe symptoms were frequently observed. Severe breathlessness (coefficient [coef] -7.95, P < 0.01) and pain (coef -7.70, P < 0.01) were associated with the largest reductions in physical QoL. Severe mood symptoms were associated with the greatest reduction in mental QoL (coef -12.91, P < 0.01). Severe pain (coef 0.56, P < 0.01), breathlessness (coef 0.49, P < 0.01), and mood symptoms (coef 0.40, P < 0.01) had a significant impact on function. CONCLUSION: SSc is frequently associated with multiple severe symptoms that may be amenable to palliative care intervention. Given the strong association between symptom burden and impaired QoL targeted, effective symptom management in parallel with standard-of-care treatments may improve overall patient outcomes.

Evaluation of the European Society of Cardiology Risk Assessment Score in Incident Systemic Sclerosis-Associated Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension.

OBJECTIVE: Patients with pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) may be stratified as low, intermediate, or high risk of 1-year mortality. In 2022, the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) updated and simplified its risk stratification tool, based on three variables: World Health Organization functional class, serum N-terminal pro-brain type natriuretic peptide and six-minute walk distance, applied at follow-up visits, intended to guide therapy over time. METHODS: We applied the 2022 ESC risk assessment tool at baseline and follow-up (within 2 years) to a multinational incident cohort of systemic sclerosis-associated PAH (SSc-PAH). Kaplan-Meier curves, Cox hazards regression, and accelerated failure time models were used to evaluate survival by risk score. RESULTS: At baseline (n = 260), the majority of SSc-PAH (72.2%) were graded as intermediate risk of death according to the 2022 tool. At follow-up, according to 2022 tool, half (55.5%) of the cohort were classified as low or intermediate-low risk. The 2022 risk model at follow-up was able to differentiate survival between risk strata. All three individual parameters (World Health Organization functional class, N-terminal pro-brain type natriuretic peptide, six-minute walk distance) were significantly associated with mortality at baseline and/or follow-up. CONCLUSION: The 2022 ESC risk assessment strategy applied at baseline and follow-up predicts survival in SSc-PAH. Treatment decisions for SSc-PAH should include risk assessments, aiming to achieve low-risk status according to the 2022 ESC guidelines.

Predictors and prognosis of pulmonary hypertension complicating interstitial lung disease in systemic sclerosis.

OBJECTIVE: To identify those with concurrent pulmonary hypertension (PH) and interstitial lung disease (ILD) in systemic sclerosis (SSc) and determine their disease severity, therapeutic approach, and survival. METHODS: Consecutive SSc patients enrolled in the Australian Scleroderma Cohort Study (ASCS) who were diagnosed on right heart catherisation with pulmonary hypertension were included. Logistic regression was used to determine the associations of ILD with PH hemodynamic parameters and therapeutic approach. Kaplan-Meier survival curves were used to estimate survival. RESULTS: Of 1,883 SSc patients, 164 (8.7%) developed incident PH over a median follow up of 4.3 (1.7-7.9) years. Of these, 43.9% had concurrent ILD at PH diagnosis (PH-ILD) and 56.1% had Group 1 PAH. Extensive ILD was present at PH diagnosis in 40.3%. Despite these distinct PH cohorts, a similar frequency of each PH cohort was treated with vasodilatory therapy at PH diagnosis, regardless of the presence or severity of ILD. The majority (87.5%) of those with extensive ILD and PH received upfront vasodilatory therapy at PH diagnosis with no difference in its tolerability or therapy cessation compared with Group 1 PAH. Although vasodilator therapy was not associated with a survival advantage in those with extensive ILD, its use was associated with an improvement in symptoms, physical function, and quality of life (QoL). CONCLUSION: Despite vasodilator therapy, survival in SSc-PH is poor, with the presence of concurrent ILD associated with worse survival. Although vasodilator therapy commenced at PH diagnosis does not portray an improved survival in PH with extensive ILD, it appears well tolerated and may improve symptoms, physical function, and QoL.

Frequency and implications of malnutrition in systemic sclerosis.

OBJECTIVES: To quantify the frequency and impact of malnutrition in systemic sclerosis (SSc), as diagnosed by the Global Leadership Initiative on Malnutrition (GLIM) criteria, based on weight loss, body mass index (BMI) and muscle atrophy. METHODS: Australian Scleroderma Cohort Study participants meeting ACR/EULAR criteria for SSc with ≥1 concurrent weight and height measurement were included. Chi-squared tests, two-sample t-tests or Wilcoxon rank-sum tests were used for between-group comparison as appropriate. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to establish the determinants of malnutrition diagnosis. Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazard models were used for survival analyses, based on malnutrition diagnosis, and individual GLIM criteria (% weight loss, BMI thresholds and presence of muscle atrophy). RESULTS: In this study of 1903 participants, 43% were diagnosed with malnutrition according to GLIM criteria, of whom 33% had severe malnutrition. Participants diagnosed with malnutrition were older, and more likely to have dcSSc, higher SSc severity scores and RNA polymerase-3 positivity. Gastrointestinal (GI) involvement, multimorbidity, cardiopulmonary disease, raised inflammatory markers, hypoalbuminaemia and anaemia were more common in malnourished participants (p< 0.01). Multimorbidity (OR1.6, 95%CI1.2-2.0, p< 0.01), pulmonary arterial hypertension (OR2.1, 95%CI1.4-2.0, p< 0.01) and upper GI symptoms (OR1.6, 95%CI1.3-2.0, p< 0.01) were all associated with malnutrition.Health-related quality-of-life (HRQoL) and physical function were poorer in malnourished participants. Survival was worse in those with malnutrition after adjusting for age, sex and dcSSc (HR 1.4, 95%CI1.1-1.7, p< 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: Malnutrition is common in SSc and confers poorer survival, HRQoL and physical function.

Inflammatory Arthritis in Systemic Sclerosis: Its Epidemiology, Associations, and Morbidity.

OBJECTIVE: To describe the epidemiology, associations, and impact of inflammatory arthritis (IA) in systemic sclerosis (SSc). METHODS: Patients with SSc prospectively enrolled in the Australian Scleroderma Cohort Study were included. IA was defined clinically as the presence of synovitis on examination. Logistic regression was used to determine the associations of IA with SSc manifestations and serological parameters. Patient-reported outcome measures were used to capture physical function and health-related quality of life (HRQoL). RESULTS: IA was a common SSc manifestation affecting one-third (33.3%) of patients over a median follow-up of 4.3 (1.7-8.4) years. Associations of IA included diffuse SSc (odds ratio [OR] 1.33, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] 1.01-1.74, P = 0.042), concurrent musculoskeletal manifestations (joint contractures and tendon friction rubs, OR 1.70, 95% CI 1.34-2.15, P < 0.001); myositis (OR 2.11, 95% CI 1.39-3.20, P < 0.001), and sicca symptoms (OR 1.57, 95% CI 1.14-2.16, P = 0.006), whereas IA was negatively associated with pulmonary arterial hypertension (OR 0.52, 95% CI 0.35-0.78, P = 0.002). Neither the presence of rheumatoid factor nor U1 small nuclear RNP were associated with IA (OR 1.13, 95% CI 0.88-1.44, P = 0.331, OR 1.46, 95% CI 0.89-2.39, P = 0.129 respectively). Positive anticyclic citrullinated protein antibodies, although at low frequency, were more common in those with IA compared with those without IA (7.5% vs 1.5%, P < 0.001). IA was associated with significantly lower HRQoL score (P < 0.001) and more physical disability than in those without IA (P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: IA is a common disease manifestation that is more frquently seen in diffuse disease. IA is associated with poor HRQoL and physical disability. Further research is needed into the effective management of IA in SSc.

Proximal weakness and creatine kinase elevation in systemic sclerosis: Clinical correlates, prognosis and functional implications.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the frequency, clinical correlates and implications of clinical evidence of muscle disease in systemic sclerosis (SSc). METHODS: Australian Scleroderma Cohort Study participants with ≥1 creatine kinase (CK) and proximal power assessment were subdivided according to presence of proximal weakness (PW: proximal muscle power<5/5) and CK elevation(≥140IU/L). Participants were assigned to one of four groups: concurrent PW&CK elevation, PW alone, CK elevation alone or neither. Between-group comparisons were made with chi-squared, ANOVA or Kruskal-Wallis tests. Survival analysis was performed using time-varying-covariate Cox regression modelling. Longitudinal data were modelled using multinomial logistic and linear regression. RESULTS: Of 1786 participants, 4 % had concurrent PW&CK elevation, 15 % PW alone, 24 % CK elevation and 57 % neither. Participants with PW&CK elevation displayed a severe, inflammatory SSc phenotype, with more frequent dcSSc(p < 0.01), tendon friction rubs(p < 0.01), synovitis(p < 0.01) and digital ulceration(p = 0.03). Multimorbidity(p < 0.01) and cardiopulmonary disease, including ischaemic heart disease(p < 0.01) and pulmonary arterial hypertension(p < 0.01), were most common in those with PW, with and without CK elevation. Men with anti-Scl70 positivity most frequently had CK elevation alone, without other significant clinical differences. Multivariable modelling demonstrated 3.6-fold increased mortality in those with PW&CK elevation (95 %CI 1.9-6.6, p < 0.01) and 2.1-fold increased mortality in PW alone (95 %CI 1.4-3.0, p < 0.01) compared to those without PW or CK elevation. CK elevation alone conferred better survival (HR 0.7, 95 %CI 0.4-1.1, p = 0.09) compared to those with no PW or CK elevation. PW regardless of CK elevation was associated with impaired physical function, with reduced six-minute-walk-distance (p < 0.01), higher HAQ-DI scores (p < 0.01) and increased patient-reported dyspnoea (p = 0.04). CONCLUSION: Clinical features of myopathy are highly prevalent in SSc, affecting almost half of our study cohort. Detection of PW and elevated CK alone, even without imaging or histopathological identification of SSc-myopathy, identified important clinical associations and are associated with poorer function and overall prognosis.

Multiple serum biomarkers associate with mortality and interstitial lung disease progression in systemic sclerosis.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the prognostic utility of 28 serum biomarkers in systemic sclerosis (SSc), SSc-associated interstitial lung disease (SSc-ILD) and clinically relevant disease subgroups. METHODS: Participants with sera, high-resolution computed tomography, and lung function within 12 months of baseline were identified from the Australian Scleroderma Cohort Study. Baseline was the time of serum collection. 27 of the prespecified 28 serum biomarkers were analysed and biomarker associations with mortality and ILD progression were investigated in univariable and multivariable analyses, including within disease subgroups and combined with established risk factors for poorer prognosis in SSc. RESULTS: 407 participants were identified, 252 (61.9%) with SSc-ILD. The median follow up after biomarker measurement was 6.31 (3.11-9.22) years. 16 biomarkers were associated with increased mortality. High levels of VCAM-1 were most strongly associated with mortality (HR 3.55; 95%CI 2.37-5.33; p< 0.001). Five additional biomarkers had a HR > 2: SP-D (2.28, 1.57-3.31; p< 0.001), E-selectin (2.19; 1.53-3.14; p< 0.001), IL-6 (2.15 1.50-3.09; p< 0.001), MMP3 (1.42-2.95; p< 0.001) and ET-1 (2.03, 1.40-2.92; p< 0.001). 11 biomarkers were independently associated with mortality following adjustment for sex, age and baseline forced vital capacity (FVC%predicted). Three biomarkers were associated with ILD progression at one year follow up: CXCL4 (OR 2.67, 1.46-4.88; p= 0.001), MMP-1 (2.56, 1.43-4.59; p= 0.002) and ET-1 (2.18, 1.24-3.83; p= 0.007). CONCLUSION: Multiple biomarkers, especially VCAM-1, E-Selectin, SP-D and CXCL4, provide prognostic utility beyond that of established risk factors for patients with SSc.

Contribution of Left Ventricular Diastolic Dysfunction to Survival and Breathlessness in Systemic Sclerosis-Associated Interstitial Lung Disease.

OBJECTIVE: To explore the effect of left ventricular (LV) diastolic dysfunction (LVDD) in systemic sclerosis (SSc)-associated interstitial lung disease (ILD), and to investigate SSc-specific associations and clinical correlates of LVDD. METHODS: There were 102 Australian Scleroderma Cohort Study participants with definite SSc and radiographic ILD included. Diastolic function was classified as normal, indeterminate, or abnormal according to 2016 American Society of Echocardiography/European Association of Cardiovascular Imaging guidelines for assessment of LV diastolic function. Associations between clinical features and patient- and physician-reported dyspnea were evaluated using logistic regression. Survival analyses were performed using Kaplan-Meier survival estimates and Cox regression modeling. RESULTS: LVDD was identified in 26% of participants, whereas 19% had indeterminate and 55% had normal diastolic function. Those with ILD and LVDD had increased mortality (hazard ratio 2.4, 95% CI 1.0-5.7; P = 0.05). After adjusting for age and sex, those with ILD and LVDD were more likely to have severe dyspnea on the Borg Dyspnoea Scale (odds ratio [OR] 2.6, 95% CI 1.0-6.6; P = 0.05) and numerically more likely to record World Health Organization Function Class II or higher dyspnea (OR 4.2, 95% CI 0.9-20.0; P = 0.08). Older age (95% CI 1.0-6.4; P = 0.05), hypertension (OR 5.0, 95% CI 1.8-13.8; P < 0.01), and ischemic heart disease (OR 4.8, 95% CI 1.5-15.7; P < 0.01) were all associated with LVDD, as was proximal muscle atrophy (OR 5.0, 95% CI 1.9-13.6; P < 0.01) and multimorbidity (Charlson Comorbidity Index scores ≥ 4, OR 3.0, 95% CI 1.1-8.7; P = 0.04). CONCLUSION: LVDD in SSc-ILD is more strongly associated with traditional LVDD risk factors than SSc-specific factors. LVDD is associated with worse dyspnea and survival in those with SSc-ILD.

The effect of calcium channel blockers on digital ulcers in systemic sclerosis: data from a prospective cohort study.

Digital ulcers (DU) are a common, severe vascular manifestation of systemic sclerosis (SSc) with few effective treatment options. Using data from the Australian Scleroderma Cohort Study (ASCS), we sought to evaluate the effect of calcium channel blockers (CCB) on the treatment and prevention of DU.Using data from 1953 participants, with a median of 4.34 years of follow-up, we used generalised estimating equations to evaluate the clinical characteristics associated with CCB use and ascertain the risk factors for the presence of DU at subsequent study visits. A time-dependent Cox-proportional hazard model was applied to evaluate the risk of future occurrence of DU with CCB use.Sixty-six percent of participants received CCB and patients with a history of DU were more likely to be prescribed a CCB (76.76% vs 53.70%, p < 0.01). CCB use was more frequent in patients with severe complications of DU including chronic DU (OR 1.47, p = 0.02), need for hospitalisation for iloprost (OR 1.30, p = 0.01) or antibiotics (OR 1.36, p = 0.04) and digital amputation (OR 1.48, p < 0.01). Use of CCB was more likely in patients who experienced DU at subsequent study visits (OR 1.32, p < 0.01) and was not associated with a decreased risk of the development of a first DU (HR 0.94, p = 0.65).CCB are frequently used in the management of SSc in the ASCS and their use is associated with severe peripheral vascular manifestations of SSc. However, our results suggest that CCB may not be effective in the healing or prevention of DU.

Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Health Care Access and Diagnosis of Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension Among Patients With Systemic Sclerosis.

OBJECTIVE: Regular clinical assessment for complications of systemic sclerosis (SSc) such as pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) is essential for early institution of therapy and improved outcomes. The objective of this study was to determine the impact of COVID-19 pandemic-related restrictions on health care access of patients with SSc, including screening for PAH. METHODS: South Australian and Victorian patients enrolled in the Australian Scleroderma Cohort Study were surveyed about their perceptions of the impact of the pandemic on mental well-being, access to medications, investigations, and management of SSc. Frequency of annual rheumatology assessments, pulmonary function tests (PFT), and transthoracic echocardiography (TTE) to screen for PAH were compared with rates from before the pandemic. RESULTS: A total of 312 of 810 patients with SSc responded (38.5% response); 273 were female (87.5%), the median age was 64.7 years, 77.2% had limited disease, the median illness duration was 15.6 years, 15.7% were immunosuppressed, 32.1% had interstitial lung disease, and 6.4% had PAH. A total of 65.7% of consultations were by telehealth, of which 81.2% were by telephone. Compared with respondents in South Australia (n = 109), Victorian respondents (n = 203) experiencing prolonged lockdown, reported reduced access to their rheumatologist (49.3% vs 27.9%; P = 0.004), greater use of consultation by video (17.3% vs 2.1%; P = 0.008), greater health care disruption (49.0% vs 23.2%; P < 0.001), and worse mental health (P = 0.002). Respondents reported reduced access to PFT and TTE (31.7% and 22.5%, respectively). Annual visits, PFT, TTE, and new diagnoses of PAH were reduced in 2020 to 2022 compared with 2011 to 2019. CONCLUSION: The COVID-19 pandemic-related disruption to health care for patients with SSc was associated with worse mental health and reduced screening and diagnosis of PAH, which may impact long-term outcomes.

Observations from Australia's National Surgical Mortality Audit.

BACKGROUND: Australia is the only country with a national surgical mortality audit. Every Australian surgical mortality is independently and externally reviewed by another surgeon. Extensive educational feedback to surgeons and hospitals is provided through individual patient reviews, state and national symposia and reports, and the distribution of deidentified informative cases. This study reports a longitudinal analysis of the Australian surgical morality audit. METHODS: The standardised mortality ratio (SMR) was calculated for each state and territory, nine surgical specialties and nationally. The index year used was 2016, or every 5 years for those states with earlier data. Overall data were analysed in three groups-all deaths, postoperative deaths and non-operative deaths. Overall specialty data were analysed nationally. RESULTS: There was a consistent progressive fall, usually in excess of 20%, in the SMR in each state and territory and by specialty when compared to the index year. This was statistically significant nationally (p = 0.044). The same change was observed in earlier years in states with longer-term data. CONCLUSION: The period of this observational study has been associated with a nationwide fall in surgical mortality. As other improvements in care will have occurred during this period, the contribution that Australia's national mortality audit made towards the lower surgical mortality cannot be stated with certainty.