Assessing acutely ill children in general practice using the National PEWS and LqSOFA clinical scores: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Clinical tools are needed in general practice to help identify seriously ill children. The Liverpool quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (LqSOFA) was validated in an Emergency Department and performed well. The National Paediatric Early Warning score (PEWS) has been introduced in hospitals throughout England with hopes for implementation in general practice. AIM: To validate the LqSOFA and National PEWS in general practice. DESIGN/SETTING: Secondary analysis of 6,703 children <5 years presenting to 225 general practices in England and Wales with acute illnesses, linked to hospital data. METHOD: Variables from the LqSOFA and National PEWS were mapped onto study data to calculate score totals. A primary outcome of admission within two days of GP consultation was used to calculate sensitivity, specificity, negative predictive values (NPV), positive predictive values (PPV) and area-under-the-curve (AUC). RESULTS: 104/6,703 children were hospitalised within two days (pre-test probability 1.6%). The sensitivity of the LqSOFA was 30.6% (95% confidence interval 21.8% - 41.0%), with a specificity of 84.7% (83.7% - 85.6%), PPV of 3.0% (2.1% - 4.4%), NPV of 98.7% (98.4% - 99.0%), and AUC of 0.58 (0.53 - 0.63). The sensitivity of the National PEWS was 81.0% (71.0% - 88.1%), with a specificity of 32.5% (31.2% - 33.8%); PPV of 1.9% (1.5% - 2.5%); NPV of 99.1% (98.4% - 99.4%) and AUC of 0.66 (0.59 - 0.72). CONCLUSION: Although the NPVs appear useful, due to low pre-test probabilities rather than discriminative ability, neither tool accurately identified hospitalisations. Unconsidered use by GPs could result in unsustainable referrals.

Acute and long-term outcomes of SARS-CoV-2 infection in school-aged children in England: Study protocol for the joint analysis of the COVID-19 schools infection survey (SIS) and the COVID-19 mapping and mitigation in schools (CoMMinS) study.

BACKGROUND: The symptom profiles of acute SARS-CoV-2 infection and long-COVID in children and young people (CYP), risk factors, and associated healthcare needs, are poorly defined. The Schools Infection Survey 1 (SIS-1) was a nationwide study of SARS-CoV-2 infection in primary and secondary schools in England during the 2020/21 school year. The Covid-19 Mapping and Mitigation in Schools (CoMMinS) study was conducted in schools in the Bristol area over a similar period. Both studies conducted testing to identify current and previous SARS-CoV-2 infection, and recorded symptoms and school attendance. These research data have been linked to routine electronic health record (EHR) data. AIMS: To better understand the short- and long-term consequences of SARS-CoV-2 infection, and their risk factors, in CYP. METHODS: Retrospective cohort and nested case-control analyses will be conducted for SIS-1 and CoMMinS data linked to EHR data for the association between (1) acute symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection and risk factors; (2) SARS-CoV-2 infection and long-term effects on health: (a) persistent symptoms; (b) any new diagnosis; (c) a new prescription in primary care; (d) health service attendance; (e) a high rate of school absence. RESULTS: Our study will improve understanding of long-COVID in CYP by characterising the trajectory of long-COVID in CYP in terms of things like symptoms and diagnoses of conditions. The research will inform which groups of CYP are more likely to get acute- and long-term outcomes of SARS-CoV-2 infection, and patterns of related healthcare-seeking behaviour, relevant for healthcare service planning. Digested information will be produced for affected families, doctors, schools, and the public, as appropriate. CONCLUSION: Linked SIS-1 and CoMMinS data represent a unique and rich resource for understanding the impact of SARS-CoV-2 infection on children's health, benefiting from enhanced SARS-CoV-2 testing and ability to assess a wide range of outcomes.

Rapid respiratory microbiological point-of-care-testing and antibiotic prescribing in primary care: Protocol for the RAPID-TEST randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Antibiotics are prescribed for over 50% of respiratory tract infections in primary care, despite good evidence of there being no benefit to the patient, and evidence of over prescribing driving microbial resistance. The high treatment rates are attributed to uncertainty regarding microbiological cause and clinical prognosis. Point-of-care-tests have been proposed as potential antibiotic stewardship tools, with some providing microbiological results in 15 minutes. However, there is little research on their impact on antibiotic use and clinical outcomes in primary care. METHODS: This is a multi-centre, individually randomised controlled trial with mixed-methods investigation of microbial, behavioural and antibiotic mechanisms on outcomes in patients aged 12 months and over presenting to primary care in the UK with a suspected respiratory tract infection, where the clinician and/or patient thinks antibiotic treatment may be, or is, necessary. Once consented, all participants are asked to provide a combined nose and throat swab sample and randomised to have a rapid microbiological point-of-care-test or no point-of-care-test. For intervention patients, clinicians review the result of the test, before contacting the patient to finalise treatment. Treatment decisions are made as per usual care in control group patients. The primary outcome is whether an antibiotic is prescribed at this point. All swab samples are sent to the central laboratory for further testing. Patients are asked to complete a diary to record the severity and duration of symptoms until resolution or day 28, and questionnaires at 2 months about their beliefs and intention to consult for similar future illnesses. Primary care medical records are also reviewed at 6-months to collect further infection consultations, antibiotic prescribing and hospital admissions. The trial aims to recruit 514 patients to achieve 90% power with 5% significance to detect a 15% absolute reduction in antibiotic prescribing. Qualitative interviews are being conducted with approximately 20 clinicians and 30 participants to understand any changes in beliefs and behaviour resulting from the point-of-care-test and generate attributes for clinician and patient discrete choice experiments. DISCUSSION: This trial will provide evidence of efficacy, acceptability and mechanisms of action of a rapid microbiological point-of-care test on antibiotic prescribing and patient symptoms in primary care. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN16039192, prospectively registered on 08/11/2022.

Long-term consequences of urinary tract infection in childhood: an electronic population-based cohort study in Welsh primary and secondary care.

BACKGROUND: Childhood urinary tract infection (UTI) can cause renal scarring, and possibly hypertension, chronic kidney disease (CKD), and end-stage renal failure (ESRF). Previous studies have focused on selected populations, with severe illness or underlying risk factors. The risk for most children with UTI is unclear. AIM: To examine the association between childhood UTI and outcomes in an unselected population of children. DESIGN AND SETTING: A retrospective population-based cohort study using linked GP, hospital, and microbiology records in Wales, UK. METHOD: Participants were all children born in 2005-2009, with follow-up until 31 December 2017. The exposure was microbiologically confirmed UTI before the age of 5 years. The key outcome measures were renal scarring, hypertension, CKD, and ESRF. RESULTS: In total, 159 201 children were included; 77 524 (48.7%) were female and 7% (n = 11 099) had UTI before the age of 5 years. A total of 0.16% (n = 245) were diagnosed with renal scarring by the age of 7 years. Odds of renal scarring were higher in children by age 7 years with UTI (1.24%; adjusted odds ratio 4.60 [95% confidence interval [CI] = 3.33 to 6.35]). Mean follow-up was 9.53 years. Adjusted hazard ratios were: 1.44 (95% CI = 0.84 to 2.46) for hypertension; 1.67 (95% CI = 0.85 to 3.31) for CKD; and 1.16 (95% CI = 0.56 to 2.37) for ESRF. CONCLUSION: The prevalence of renal scarring in an unselected population of children with UTI is low. Without underlying risk factors, UTI is not associated with CKD, hypertension, or ESRF by the age of 10 years. Further research with systematic scanning of children's kidneys, including those with less severe UTI and without UTI, is needed to increase the certainty of these results, as most children are not scanned. Longer follow-up is needed to establish if UTI, without additional risk factors, is associated with hypertension, CKD, or ESRF later in life.

d-Mannose for Prevention of Recurrent Urinary Tract Infection Among Women: A Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: Recurrent urinary tract infection (UTI) is a common debilitating condition in women, with limited prophylactic options. d-Mannose has shown promise in trials based in secondary care, but effectiveness in placebo-controlled studies and community settings has not been established. Objective: To determine whether d-mannose taken for 6 months reduces the proportion of women with recurrent UTI experiencing a medically attended UTI. Design, Setting, and Participants: This 2-group, double-blind randomized placebo-controlled trial took place across 99 primary care centers in the UK. Participants were recruited between March 28, 2019, and January 31, 2020, with 6 months of follow-up. Participants were female, 18 years or older, living in the community, and had evidence in their primary care record of consultations for at least 2 UTIs in the preceding 6 months or 3 UTIs in 12 months. Invitation to participate was made by their primary care center. A total of 7591 participants were approached, 830 responded, and 232 were ineligible or did not proceed to randomization. Statistical analysis was reported in December 2022. Intervention: Two grams daily of d-mannose powder or matched volume of placebo powder. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome measure was the proportion of women experiencing at least 1 further episode of clinically suspected UTI for which they contacted ambulatory care within 6 months of study entry. Secondary outcomes included symptom duration, antibiotic use, time to next medically attended UTI, number of suspected UTIs, and UTI-related hospital admissions. Results: Of 598 women eligible (mean [range] age, 58 [18-93] years), 303 were randomized to d-mannose (50.7%) and 295 to placebo (49.3%). Primary outcome data were available for 583 participants (97.5%). The proportion contacting ambulatory care with a clinically suspected UTI was 150 of 294 (51.0%) in the d-mannose group and 161 of 289 (55.7%) in the placebo group (risk difference, -5%; 95% CI, -13% to 3%; P = .26). Estimates were similar in per protocol analyses, imputation analyses, and preplanned subgroups. There were no statistically significant differences in any secondary outcome measures. Conclusions and Relevance: In this randomized clinical trial, daily d-mannose did not reduce the proportion of women with recurrent UTI in primary care who experienced a subsequent clinically suspected UTI. d-Mannose should not be recommended for prophylaxis in this patient group. Trial Registration: isrctn.org Identifier: ISRCTN13283516.

Within-episode repeat antibiotic prescriptions in patients with respiratory tract infections: A population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Antimicrobial stewardship interventions mainly focus on initial antibiotic prescriptions, with few considering within-episode repeat prescriptions. We aimed to describe the magnitude, type and determinants of within-episode repeat antibiotic prescriptions in patients presenting to primary care with respiratory tract infections (RTIs). METHODS: We conducted a population-based cohort study among 530 sampled English general practices within the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD). All individuals with a primary care RTI consultation for which an antibiotic was prescribed between March 2018 and February 2022. Main outcome measurement was repeat antibiotic prescriptions within 28 days of a RTI visit stratified by age (children vs. adults) and RTI type (lower vs. upper RTI). Multivariable logistic regression and principal components analyses were used to identify risk factors and patient clusters at risk for within-episode repeat prescriptions. FINDINGS: 905,964 RTI episodes with at least one antibiotic prescription were identified. In adults, 19.9% (95% CI 19.3-20.5%) had at least one within-episode repeat prescription for a lower RTI, compared to 10.5% (95% CI 10.3-10.8%) for an upper RTI. In children, this was around 10% irrespective of RTI type. The majority of repeat prescriptions occurred a median of 10 days after the initial prescription and was the same antibiotic class in 48.3% of cases. Frequent RTI related GP visits and prior within-RTI-episode repeat antibiotic prescriptions were main factors associated with repeat prescriptions in both adults and children irrespective of RTI type. Young (<2 years) and older (65+) age were associated with repeat prescriptions. Among those aged 2-64 years, allergic rhinitis, COPD and oral corticosteroids were associated with repeat prescriptions. INTERPRETATIONS: Repeat within-episode antibiotic use accounts for a significant proportion of all antibiotics prescribed for RTIs, with same class antibiotics unlikely to confer clinical benefit and is therefore a prime target for future antimicrobial stewardship interventions.

Dipsticks and point-of-care Microscopy to reduce antibiotic use in women with an uncomplicated Urinary Tract Infection (MicUTI): protocol of a randomised controlled pilot trial in primary care.

INTRODUCTION: Uncomplicated urinary tract infections (uUTIs) in women are common infections encountered in primary care. Evidence suggests that rapid point-of-care tests (POCTs) to detect bacteria and erythrocytes in urine at presentation may help primary care clinicians to identify women with uUTIs in whom antibiotics can be withheld without influencing clinical outcomes. This pilot study aims to provide preliminary evidence on whether a POCT informed management of uUTI in women can safely reduce antibiotic use. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: This is an open-label two-arm parallel cluster-randomised controlled pilot trial. 20 general practices affiliated with the Bavarian Practice-Based Research Network (BayFoNet) in Germany were randomly assigned to deliver patient management based on POCTs or to provide usual care. POCTs consist of phase-contrast microscopy to detect bacteria and urinary dipsticks to detect erythrocytes in urine samples. In both arms, urine samples will be obtained at presentation for POCTs (intervention arm only) and microbiological analysis. Women will be followed-up for 28 days from enrolment using self-reported symptom diaries, telephone follow-up and a review of the electronic medical record. Primary outcomes are feasibility of patient enrolment and retention rates per site, which will be summarised by means and SDs, with corresponding confidence and prediction intervals. Secondary outcomes include antibiotic use for UTI at day 28, time to symptom resolution, symptom burden, number of recurrent and upper UTIs and re-consultations and diagnostic accuracy of POCTs versus urine culture as the reference standard. These outcomes will be explored at cluster-levels and individual-levels using descriptive statistics, two-sample hypothesis tests and mixed effects models or generalised estimation equations. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The University of Würzburg institutional review board approved MicUTI on 16 December 2022 (protocol n. 109/22-sc). Study findings will be disseminated through peer-reviewed publications, conferences, reports addressed to clinicians and the local citizen's forums. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT05667207.

Implementation of the CHIldren with acute COugh (CHICO) intervention to improve antibiotics management: a qualitative study in primary care.

BACKGROUND: Childhood respiratory tract infections (RTIs) are common and can lead to unnecessary antibiotic use and antimicrobial resistance. The CHIldren with COugh (CHICO) intervention incorporates a clinician-focused algorithm (STARWAVe) to predict future hospitalisation risk, elicitation of carer concerns, and a carer-focused personalised leaflet recording treatment decisions and safety-netting information. AIM: To examine the implementation of the CHICO intervention by primary care clinicians. DESIGN AND SETTING: A qualitative study with primary care clinicians in England taking part in the CHICO randomised controlled trial. METHOD: Interviews explored the CHICO intervention's acceptability and use. Clinicians from a range of practices with high and low antibiotic dispensing rates were recruited. Normalisation process theory underpinned data collection and thematic analysis. RESULTS: Most clinicians liked the intervention because it was quick and easy to use, it helped elicit carer concerns, and reassured clinicians and carers of the appropriateness of treatment decisions. However, clinicians used it as a supportive aid for treatment decisions rather than as a tool for behaviour change. The accompanying advice leaflet helped explain treatment decisions and support self-care. The intervention did not always align with clinicians' usual processes, which could affect use. Increased familiarisation with the algorithm led to reduced intervention use, which was further reduced during the COVID-19 pandemic as a result of changes to practice and remote consultations. CONCLUSION: Clinicians found the CHICO intervention useful to support decision making around antibiotic prescribing and it helped discussions with carers about concerns and treatment decisions. The intervention may need to be adapted to align more with clinicians' consultation flow and remote consultations.

Systematic review and meta-analysis of the accuracy of McIsaac and Centor score in patients presenting to secondary care with pharyngitis.

BACKGROUND: Centor and McIsaac scores are clinical prediction rules for diagnosing group A streptococcus (GAS) infection in patients with pharyngitis. Their recommended thresholds vary between guidelines. OBJECTIVES: To estimate the sensitivity and specificity of the McIsaac and Centor scores to diagnose GAS pharyngitis and evaluate their impact on antibiotic prescribing at each threshold in patients presenting to secondary care. DATA SOURCES: MEDLINE, Embase, and Web of Science were searched from inception to September 2022. STUDY ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA: Studies of patients presenting with acute pharyngitis to emergency or outpatient clinics that estimated the accuracy of McIsaac or Centor scores against throat cultures and/or rapid antigen detection tests (RADT) as reference standards. TESTS: Centor or McIsaac score. REFERENCE STANDARD: Throat cultures and/or RADT. ASSESSMENT OF RISK OF BIAS: Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies. METHODS OF DATA SYNTHESIS: The sensitivities and specificities of the McIsaac and Centor scores were pooled at each threshold using bivariate random effects meta-analysis. RESULTS: Fourteen studies were included (eight McIsaac and six Centor scores). Eight studies had unclear and six had a high risk of bias. The McIsaac score had higher estimated sensitivity and lower specificity relative to Centor scores at equivalent thresholds but with wide and overlapping confidence regions. Using either score as a triage to RADT to decide antibiotic treatment would reduce antibiotic prescription to patients with non-GAS pharyngitis relative to RADT test for everyone, but also reduce antibiotic prescription to patients with GAS. DISCUSSION: Centor and McIsaac scores are equally ineffective at triaging patients who need antibiotics presenting with pharyngitis at hospitals. At high thresholds, too many true positive cases are missed, whereas at low thresholds, too many false positives are treated, leading to the over prescription of antibiotics. The former may be compensated by adequate safety netting by clinicians, ensuring that patients can seek help if symptoms worsen.

Risk factors associated with the development of chronic suppurative otitis media in children: Systematic review and meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVES: Chronic suppurative otitis media (CSOM) is defined as persistent discharge through a tympanic membrane perforation for greater than 2 weeks. It is associated with a significant disease burden, including hearing loss, and reducing its incidence could significantly improve short- and long-term health. We aimed to identify risk factors associated with the development of CSOM in children. DESIGN AND SETTING: Systematic review and meta-analysis of studies set in community, primary and secondary care settings, identified from Medline, Embase and Cochrane databases from 2000 to 2022. PARTICIPANTS: Children 16 years old and below. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Clinical diagnosis of CSOM. RESULTS: In total, 739 papers were screened, with 12 deemed eligible for inclusion in the systematic review, of which, 10 were included in the meta-analysis. Risk factors examined included perinatal, patient, dietary, environmental and parental factors. Meta-analysis results indicate that atopy (RR = 1.18, 95% CI [1.01-1.37], p = .04, 2 studies); and birth weight <2500 g (RR = 1.79 [1.27-2.50], p < .01, 2 studies) are associated with an increased risk of CSOM development. Factors not associated were male sex (RR = 0.96 [0.82-1.13], p = .62, 8 studies); exposure to passive smoking (RR = 1.27 [0.81-2.01], p = .30, 3 studies); and parental history of otitis media (RR = 1.14 [0.59-2.20], p = .69, 2 studies). CONCLUSION: Optimal management of risk factors associated with CSOM development will help reduce the burden of disease and prevent disease progression or recurrence. The current quality of evidence in the literature is variable and heterogeneous. Future studies should aim to use standardised classification systems to define risk factors to allow meta-analysis.

Clinical effectiveness of point of care tests for diagnosing urinary tract infection: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Point of care tests (POCTs) have the potential to improve the urinary tract infection (UTI) diagnostic pathway, as they can provide a diagnosis quickly in near-patient settings, and some also identify causative pathogens/antimicrobial sensitivity. OBJECTIVES: To assess the clinical impact, accuracy, and technical characteristics of POCT for diagnosing UTI. METHODS OF DATA SYNTHESIS: Narrative summary and bivariate random effects meta-analyses to estimate summary sensitivity and specificity. DATA SOURCES: Five electronic databases, two clinical trial registries, study reports and review reference lists, and websites. STUDY ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA: Randomized controlled trials/non-randomized studies and diagnostic test accuracy studies published since 2000. PARTICIPANTS: People with suspected UTI. TESTS: Rapid tests (results <40 minutes): Astrego PA-100 system, Lodestar DX, Uriscreen, UTRiPLEX. Culture tests (results <24 hours): Flexicult Human, ID Flexicult, Diaslide, Dipstreak, Chromostreak, Uricult, Uricult Trio, Uricult Plus. REFERENCE STANDARD: Any. ASSESSMENT OF RISK OF BIAS: Risk of Bias-2, Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies-2, Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies-C. RESULTS: Two randomized controlled trials evaluated Flexicult Human (one against standard care; one against ID Flexicult). No difference was reported in antibiotic use concordant with culture results (OR 0.84 95% CI 0.58-1.20) or appropriate antibiotic prescribing (OR 1.44 95% CI 1.03-1.99). Initial antibiotic prescribing was lower with Flexicult than standard care (OR 0.56 95% CI 0.35-0.88). No difference for other measures of antibiotic use, symptom duration, patient enablement, or resource use. Fifteen studies reported accuracy data. Limited data were available, with most POCT evaluated in single studies or not evaluated at all. Uriscreen (four studies), Uricult Trio (three studies), Flexicult Human (four studies), and ID Flexicult (two studies) had modest sensitivity and specificity. POCTs were easier to use and interpret than standard culture. CONCLUSIONS: There is currently insufficient evidence to support the use of POCTs in UTI diagnosis. Due to the rapid development of POCT, this review should be updated regularly.

Outcome measures for use in trials of paediatric otorrhoea: A systematic review.

INTRODUCTION: Paediatric otorrhoea (PO) describes a middle ear infection that results in a perforation of the tympanic membrane and ear discharge, in children and young people (CYP). Prolonged infection may be associated with hearing loss and developmental delay. The current management of paediatric otorrhoea is variable, including non-invasive treatments (conservative, oral antibiotics, topical antibiotics) and surgery, reflecting the lack of a sufficiently strong evidence base. Outcome reporting is fundamental to producing reliable and meaningful evidence to inform best practice. OBJECTIVES: Primary objective: to determine which outcome measures are currently used to evaluate treatment success in studies of non-surgical treatments for paediatric otorrhoea. SECONDARY OBJECTIVES: to identify outcome measurement instruments used in the literature and assess their applicability for use in clinical trials of PO. METHODS: This systematic review was registered with PROSPERO (CRD42023407976). Database searches of EMBASE, MEDLINE and Cochrane was performed on June 6, 2023, covering from Jan 1995 to May 2023. Randomised controlled trials or study protocols involving CYP with PO were included following PRISMA guidelines. Risk of bias was assessed with Cochrane's tool. RESULTS: Of the 377 papers identified, six were included in the systematic review. The primary outcome of five of the studies related to otorrhoea cessation; both time to cessation and proportion recovered at various time points were used as measures. Two measurement instruments were identified: Otitis Media-6 Questionnaire and the Institute for Medical Technology Assessment Productivity Cost Questionnaire. Both were shown to be applicable measurement instruments when used in clinical trials of PO. CONCLUSIONS: To promote homogeneity and facilitate meaningful comparison and combination of studies, we propose that time to cessation of otorrhoea from onset of otorrhoea should be used as the primary outcome in future studies. Further research is needed to establish if this is the most important outcome to children and their caregivers.

Identifying the Optimum Strategy for Identifying Adults and Children With Celiac Disease: A Cost-Effectiveness and Value of Information Analysis.

OBJECTIVES: Celiac disease (CD) is thought to affect around 1% of people in the United Kingdom, but only approximately 30% are diagnosed. The aim of this work was to assess the cost-effectiveness of strategies for identifying adults and children with CD in terms of who to test and which tests to use. METHODS: A decision tree and Markov model were used to describe testing strategies and model long-term consequences of CD. The analysis compared a selection of pre-test probabilities of CD above which patients should be screened, as well as the use of different serological tests, with or without genetic testing. Value of information analysis was used to prioritize parameters for future research. RESULTS: Using serological testing alone in adults, immunoglobulin A (IgA) tissue transglutaminase (tTG) at a 1% pre-test probability (equivalent to population screening) was most cost-effective. If combining serological testing with genetic testing, human leukocyte antigen combined with IgA tTG at a 5% pre-test probability was most cost-effective. In children, the most cost-effective strategy was a 10% pre-test probability with human leukocyte antigen plus IgA tTG. Value of information analysis highlighted the probability of late diagnosis of CD and the accuracy of serological tests as important parameters. The analysis also suggested prioritizing research in adult women over adult men or children. CONCLUSIONS: For adults, these cost-effectiveness results suggest UK National Screening Committee Criteria for population-based screening for CD should be explored. Substantial uncertainty in the results indicate a high value in conducting further research.

Predicting illness progression for children with lower respiratory infections in primary care: a prospective cohort and observational study.

BACKGROUND: Antibiotics are commonly prescribed for children with lower respiratory tract infections (LRTIs), fuelling antibiotic resistance, and there are few prognostic tools available to inform management. AIM: To externally validate an existing prognostic model (STARWAVe) to identify children at low risk of illness progression, and if model performance was limited to develop a new internally validated prognostic model. DESIGN AND SETTING: Prospective cohort study with a nested trial in a primary care setting. METHOD: Children aged 6 months to 12 years presenting with uncomplicated LRTI were included in the cohort. Children were randomised to receive amoxicillin 50 mg/kg per day for 7 days or placebo, or if not randomised they participated in a parallel observational study to maximise generalisability. Baseline clinical data were used to predict adverse outcome (illness progression requiring hospital assessment). RESULTS: A total of 758 children participated (n = 432 trial, n = 326 observational). For predicting illness progression the STARWAVe prognostic model had moderate performance (area under the receiver operating characteristic [AUROC] 0.66, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.50 to 0.77), but a new, internally validated model (seven items: baseline severity; respiratory rate; duration of prior illness; oxygen saturation; sputum or a rattly chest; passing urine less often; and diarrhoea) had good discrimination (bootstrapped AUROC 0.83, 95% CI = 0.74 to 0.92) and calibration. A three-item model (respiratory rate; oxygen saturation; and sputum or a rattly chest) also performed well (AUROC 0.81, 95% CI = 0.70 to 0.91), as did a score (ranging from 19 to 102) derived from coefficients of the model (AUROC 0.78, 95% CI = 0.67 to 0.88): a score of <70 classified 89% (n = 600/674) of children having a low risk (<5%) of progression of illness. CONCLUSION: A simple three-item prognostic score could be useful as a tool to identify children with LRTI who are at low risk of an adverse outcome and to guide clinical management.

Using microbiological data to improve the use of antibiotics for respiratory tract infections: A protocol for an individual patient data meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Resistance to antibiotics is rising and threatens future antibiotic effectiveness. 'Antibiotic targeting' ensures patients who may benefit from antibiotics receive them, while being safely withheld from those who may not. Point-of-care tests may assist with antibiotic targeting by allowing primary care clinicians to establish if symptomatic patients have a viral, bacterial, combined, or no infection. However, because organisms can be harmlessly carried, it is important to know if the presence of the virus/bacteria is related to the illness for which the patient is being assessed. One way to do this is to look for associations with more severe/prolonged symptoms and test results. Previous research to answer this question for acute respiratory tract infections has given conflicting results with studies has not having enough participants to provide statistical confidence. AIM: To undertake a synthesis of IPD from both randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and observational cohort studies of respiratory tract infections (RTI) in order to investigate the prognostic value of microbiological data in addition to, or instead of, clinical symptoms and signs. METHODS: A systematic search of Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, Ovid Medline and Ovid Embase will be carried out for studies of acute respiratory infection in primary care settings. The outcomes of interest are duration of disease, severity of disease, repeated consultation with new/worsening illness and complications requiring hospitalisation. Authors of eligible studies will be contacted to provide anonymised individual participant data. The data will be harmonised and aggregated. Multilevel regression analysis will be conducted to determine key outcome measures for different potential pathogens and whether these offer any additional information on prognosis beyond clinical symptoms and signs. TRIAL REGISTRATION: PROSPERO Registration number: CRD42023376769.

Comparison of lotions, creams, gels and ointments for the treatment of childhood eczema: the BEE RCT.

Background: Emollients are recommended for children with eczema (atopic eczema/dermatitis). A lack of head-to-head comparisons of the effectiveness and acceptability of the different types of emollients has resulted in a 'trial and error' approach to prescribing. Objective: To compare the effectiveness and acceptability of four commonly used types of emollients for the treatment of childhood eczema. Design: Four group, parallel, individually randomised, superiority randomised clinical trials with a nested qualitative study, completed in 2021. A purposeful sample of parents/children was interviewed at ≈ 4 and ≈ 16 weeks. Setting: Primary care (78 general practitioner surgeries) in England. Participants: Children aged between 6 months and 12 years with eczema, of at least mild severity, and with no known sensitivity to the study emollients or their constituents. Interventions: Study emollients sharing the same characteristics in the four types of lotion, cream, gel or ointment, alongside usual care, and allocated using a web-based randomisation system. Participants were unmasked and the researcher assessing the Eczema Area Severity Index scores was masked. Main outcome measures: The primary outcome was Patient-Oriented Eczema Measure scores over 16 weeks. The secondary outcomes were Patient-Oriented Eczema Measure scores over 52 weeks, Eczema Area Severity Index score at 16 weeks, quality of life (Atopic Dermatitis Quality of Life, Child Health Utility-9 Dimensions and EuroQol-5 Dimensions, five-level version, scores), Dermatitis Family Impact and satisfaction levels at 16 weeks. Results: A total of 550 children were randomised to receive lotion (analysed for primary outcome 131/allocated 137), cream (137/140), gel (130/135) or ointment (126/138). At baseline, 86.0% of participants were white and 46.4% were female. The median (interquartile range) age was 4 (2-8) years and the median Patient-Oriented Eczema Measure score was 9.3 (SD 5.5). There was no evidence of a difference in mean Patient-Oriented Eczema Measure scores over the first 16 weeks between emollient types (global p = 0.765): adjusted Patient-Oriented Eczema Measure pairwise differences - cream-lotion 0.42 (95% confidence interval -0.48 to 1.32), gel-lotion 0.17 (95% confidence interval -0.75 to 1.09), ointment-lotion -0.01 (95% confidence interval -0.93 to 0.91), gel-cream -0.25 (95% confidence interval -1.15 to 0.65), ointment-cream -0.43 (95% confidence interval -1.34 to 0.48) and ointment-gel -0.18 (95% confidence interval -1.11 to 0.75). There was no effect modification by parent expectation, age, disease severity or the application of UK diagnostic criteria, and no differences between groups in any of the secondary outcomes. Median weekly use of allocated emollient, non-allocated emollient and topical corticosteroids was similar across groups. Overall satisfaction was highest for lotions and gels. There was no difference in the number of adverse reactions and there were no significant adverse events. In the nested qualitative study (n = 44 parents, n = 25 children), opinions about the acceptability of creams and ointments varied most, yet problems with all types were reported. Effectiveness may be favoured over acceptability. Parents preferred pumps and bottles over tubs and reported improved knowledge about, and use of, emollients as a result of taking part in the trial. Limitations: Parents and clinicians were unmasked to allocation. The findings may not apply to non-study emollients of the same type or to children from more ethnically diverse backgrounds. Conclusions: The four emollient types were equally effective. Satisfaction with the same emollient types varies, with different parents/children favouring different ones. Users need to be able to choose from a range of emollient types to find one that suits them. Future work: Future work could focus on how best to support shared decision-making of different emollient types and evaluations of other paraffin-based, non-paraffin and 'novel' emollients. Trial registration: This trial is registered as ISRCTN84540529 and EudraCT 2017-000688-34. Funding: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme (HTA 15/130/07) and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 27, No. 19. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

One in five children in the UK have eczema, a long-term, itchy, dry skin condition. It can significantly affect both the child and their family. Most children are diagnosed and looked after by their family doctor (general practitioner) and are prescribed moisturisers (also called emollients) to relieve skin dryness and other creams (topical corticosteroids) to control flare-ups. However, there are many different types of emollients and, to our knowledge, limited research to show which is better. In the Best Emollients for Eczema clinical trial, we compared the four main types of moisturisers ­ lotions, creams, gels and ointments. These types vary in their consistency, from thin to thick. We recruited 550 children (most of whom were white and had moderate eczema) and randomly assigned them to use one of the four different types as their main moisturiser for 16 weeks. We found no difference in effectiveness. Parent-reported eczema symptoms, eczema severity and quality of life were the same for all the four types of moisturisers. However, overall satisfaction was highest for lotions and gels. Ointments may need to be used less and cause less stinging. We interviewed 44 parents and 25 children who took part. Opinions of all four types of moisturisers varied. What one family liked about a moisturiser was not necessarily the same for another and preferences were individual to each user. Sometimes there was a tension between how well a moisturiser worked (effectiveness) and how easy it was to use (acceptability). In these cases, effectiveness tended to decide whether or not parents kept using it. People found moisturisers in pumps and bottles easier to use than those in tubs. A number of participants valued the information they were given about how to use moisturisers. Our results suggest that the type of moisturiser matters less than finding one that suits the child and family.

Protocol for the Paediatric Otorrhoea Study (POSt): a multi-methods study to understand the burden of paediatric otorrhoea in the UK.

INTRODUCTION: Paediatric otorrhoea (PO) refers to the leakage of fluid through a perforation in the ear drum, resulting from an infection of the middle ear of a child or young person (CYP). PO frequently results in hearing loss which may lead to developmental delay, restricted communication and reduced educational attainment.Epidemiological information for PO is largely derived from low-income countries. The aim of this study will be to establish the incidence of PO within the UK and to understand the impact of PO on CYP and their families' everyday lives. It will build the foundations for a randomised controlled trial investigating the best antibiotic treatment for PO. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: The study will consist of two work packages. (1) Data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD), January 2005 to July 2021, will be used to determine the incidence of patient presentations with PO to primary care in the UK. It will also explore the current antimicrobial prescribing practice for PO in primary care. (2) Thirty semi-structured interviews will be conducted from 13 July to 31 October 2023 with CYP and their parents/carers to help identify the impact of PO on everyday life, the patient journey and how service users define treatment success. Three medical professional focus groups will be used to understand the current management practice, how treatment success is measured and acceptability to randomise patients. Thematic analysis will be used. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The Health Research Authority, The Health and Social Care Research Ethics Committee (23/NI/0082) and the CPRD's research data governance panel (22_002508) reviewed this study. Results will be disseminated at medical conferences, in peer-reviewed journals and via social media. The study will cocreate a webpage on healthtalk.org, with the Dipex Charity, about PO to ensure members of the public can learn more about the condition. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN46071200.

Oral and gut microbial biomarkers of susceptibility to respiratory tract infection in adults: A feasibility study.

We conducted a feasibility cohort study which aimed to recruit and retain adults from the community to collect saliva (oral) and stool (gut) samples at three time points, at the start of the study (baseline), during a respiratory tract infection (RTI) and post-RTI. Community RTIs place a huge burden on health care services, and a non-invasive microbial diagnostic tool to predict the most vulnerable to respiratory infection would be ideal. To this aim, we analysed oral-gut baseline samples comparing those who reported RTI symptoms to those who remained healthy throughout the study for microbial biomarkers of respiratory susceptibility. Amplicon sequence variants (ASV) were identified by 16S sequence profiling to reveal oral-gut microbes. Reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) was applied to target common respiratory microbes. Two general practices were recruited, and the participant recruitment rate was 1.3%. A total of 40 adult participants were retained, of which 19 acquired an RTI whereas 21 remained healthy. In healthy baseline oral and gut samples, ASVs from participants with RTI symptoms compared to those who remained healthy were similar with a high relative abundance of Streptococcus sp., and Blautia sp., respectively. Linear discriminant analysis effect size (LEfSe) revealed baseline oral microbes differed, indicating participants who suffered RTI symptoms had enhanced Streptococcus sobrinus and Megamonas sp., and depletion of Lactobacillus salivarius, Synergistetes, Verrucomicrobia and Dethiosulfovibrio. Furthermore, a random forest model ranked Streptococcus (4.13) as the highest mean decrease in accuracy (MDA) and RT-PCR showed a higher level of carriage of coagulase-negative Staphylococcus. Baseline core gut microbes were similar in both participant groups whereas LEfSe analysis revealed enhanced Veillonella, Rikenellaceae, Enhydobacteria, Eggerthella and Xanthomonsdales and depleted Desulfobulbus and Coprobacillus. Sutterella (4.73) had a high MDA value. Overall, we demonstrated the feasibility of recruiting and retaining adult participants from the community to provide multiple biological samples for microbial profiling. Our analyses identified potential oral-gut microbial biomarkers of respiratory infection susceptibility in otherwise healthy participants.