Potential breeding distributions of U.S. birds predicted with both short-term variability and long-term average climate data.

Climate conditions, such as temperature or precipitation, averaged over several decades strongly affect species distributions, as evidenced by experimental results and a plethora of models demonstrating statistical relations between species occurrences and long-term climate averages. However, long-term averages can conceal climate changes that have occurred in recent decades and may not capture actual species occurrence well because the distributions of species, especially at the edges of their range, are typically dynamic and may respond strongly to short-term climate variability. Our goal here was to test whether bird occurrence models can be predicted by either covariates based on short-term climate variability or on long-term climate averages. We parameterized species distribution models (SDMs) based on either short-term variability or long-term average climate covariates for 320 bird species in the conterminous USA and tested whether any life-history trait-based guilds were particularly sensitive to short-term conditions. Models including short-term climate variability performed well based on their cross-validated area-under-the-curve AUC score (0.85), as did models based on long-term climate averages (0.84). Similarly, both models performed well compared to independent presence/absence data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey (independent AUC of 0.89 and 0.90, respectively). However, models based on short-term variability covariates more accurately classified true absences for most species (73% of true absences classified within the lowest quarter of environmental suitability vs. 68%). In addition, they have the advantage that they can reveal the dynamic relationship between species and their environment because they capture the spatial fluctuations of species potential breeding distributions. With this information, we can identify which species and guilds are sensitive to climate variability, identify sites of high conservation value where climate variability is low, and assess how species' potential distributions may have already shifted due recent climate change. However, long-term climate averages require less data and processing time and may be more readily available for some areas of interest. Where data on short-term climate variability are not available, long-term climate information is a sufficient predictor of species distributions in many cases. However, short-term climate variability data may provide information not captured with long-term climate data for use in SDMs.

Trophic dynamics of shrinking Subarctic lakes: naturally eutrophic waters impart resilience to rising nutrient and major ion concentrations.

Shrinking lakes were recently observed for several Arctic and Subarctic regions due to increased evaporation and permafrost degradation. Along with lake drawdown, these processes often boost aquatic chemical concentrations, potentially impacting trophic dynamics. In particular, elevated chemical levels may impact primary productivity, which may in turn influence populations of primary and secondary consumers. We examined trophic dynamics of 18 shrinking lakes of the Yukon Flats, Alaska, that had experienced pronounced increases in nutrient (>200 % total nitrogen, >100 % total phosphorus) and ion concentrations (>100 % for four major ions combined) from 1985-1989 to 2010-2012, versus 37 stable lakes with relatively little chemical change over the same period. We found that phytoplankton stocks, as indexed by chlorophyll concentrations, remained unchanged in both shrinking and stable lakes from the 1980s to 2010s. Moving up the trophic ladder, we found significant changes in invertebrate abundance across decades, including decreased abundance of five of six groups examined. However, these decadal losses in invertebrate abundance were not limited to shrinking lakes, occurring in lakes with stable surface areas as well. At the top of the food web, we observed that probabilities of lake occupancy for ten waterbird species, including adults and chicks, remained unchanged from the period 1985-1989 to 2010-2012. Overall, our study lakes displayed a high degree of resilience to multi-trophic cascades caused by rising chemical concentrations. This resilience was likely due to their naturally high fertility, such that further nutrient inputs had little impact on waters already near peak production.

The pace of past climate change vs. potential bird distributions and land use in the United States.

Climate change may drastically alter patterns of species distributions and richness, but predicting future species patterns in occurrence is challenging. Significant shifts in distributions have already been observed, and understanding these recent changes can improve our understanding of potential future changes. We assessed how past climate change affected potential breeding distributions for landbird species in the conterminous United States. We quantified the bioclimatic velocity of potential breeding distributions, that is, the pace and direction of change for each species' suitable climate space over the past 60 years. We found that potential breeding distributions for landbirds have shifted substantially with an average velocity of 1.27 km yr(-1) , about double the pace of prior distribution shift estimates across terrestrial systems globally (0.61 km yr(-1) ). The direction of shifts was not uniform. The majority of species' distributions shifted west, northwest, and north. Multidirectional shifts suggest that changes in climate conditions beyond mean temperature were influencing distributional changes. Indeed, precipitation variables that were proxies for extreme conditions were important variables across all models. There were winners and losers in terms of the area of distributions; many species experienced contractions along west and east distribution edges, and expansions along northern distribution edges. Changes were also reflected in the potential species richness, with some regions potentially gaining species (Midwest, East) and other areas potentially losing species (Southwest). However, the degree to which changes in potential breeding distributions are manifested in actual species richness depends on landcover. Areas that have become increasingly suitable for breeding birds due to changing climate are often those attractive to humans for agriculture and development. This suggests that many areas might have supported more breeding bird species had the landscape not been altered. Our study illustrates that climate change is not only a future threat, but something birds are already experiencing.

Pronounced chemical response of Subarctic lakes to climate-driven losses in surface area.

Losses in lake area have been observed for several Arctic and Subarctic regions in recent decades, with unknown consequences for lake ecosystems. These reductions are primarily attributed to two climate-sensitive mechanisms, both of which may also cause changes in water chemistry: (i) increased imbalance of evaporation relative to inflow, whereby increased evaporation and decreased inflow act to concentrate solutes into smaller volumes; and (ii) accelerated permafrost degradation, which enhances sublacustrine drainage while simultaneously leaching previously frozen solutes into lakes. We documented changes in nutrients [total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP)] and ions (calcium, chloride, magnesium, sodium) over a 25 year interval in shrinking, stable, and expanding Subarctic lakes of the Yukon Flats, Alaska. Concentrations of all six solutes increased in shrinking lakes from 1985-1989 to 2010-2012, while simultaneously undergoing little change in stable or expanding lakes. This created a present-day pattern, much weaker or absent in the 1980s, in which shrinking lakes had higher solute concentrations than their stable or expanding counterparts. An imbalanced evaporation-to-inflow ratio (E/I) was the most likely mechanism behind such changes; all four ions, which behave semiconservatively and are prone to evapoconcentration, increased in shrinking lakes and, along with TN and TP, were positively related to isotopically derived E/I estimates. Moreover, the most conservative ion, chloride, increased >500% in shrinking lakes. Conversely, only TP concentration was related to probability of permafrost presence, being highest at intermediate probabilities. Overall, the substantial increases of nutrients (TN >200%, TP >100%) and ions (>100%) may shift shrinking lakes towards overly eutrophic or saline states, with potentially severe consequences for ecosystems of northern lakes.

Current and future land use around a nationwide protected area network.

Land-use change around protected areas can reduce their effective size and limit their ability to conserve biodiversity because land-use change alters ecological processes and the ability of organisms to move freely among protected areas. The goal of our analysis was to inform conservation planning efforts for a nationwide network of protected lands by predicting future land use change. We evaluated the relative effect of three economic policy scenarios on land use surrounding the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service's National Wildlife Refuges. We predicted changes for three land-use classes (forest/range, crop/pasture, and urban) by 2051. Our results showed an increase in forest/range lands (by 1.9% to 4.7% depending on the scenario), a decrease in crop/pasture between 15.2% and 23.1%, and a substantial increase in urban land use between 28.5% and 57.0%. The magnitude of land-use change differed strongly among different USFWS administrative regions, with the most change in the Upper Midwestern US (approximately 30%), and the Southeastern and Northeastern US (25%), and the rest of the U.S. between 15 and 20%. Among our scenarios, changes in land use were similar, with the exception of our "restricted-urban-growth" scenario, which resulted in noticeably different rates of change. This demonstrates that it will likely be difficult to influence land-use change patterns with national policies and that understanding regional land-use dynamics is critical for effective management and planning of protected lands throughout the U.S.