Spatial heterogeneity affects predictions from early-curve fitting of pandemic outbreaks: a case study using population data from Denmark.

The modelling of pandemics has become a critical aspect in modern society. Even though artificial intelligence can help the forecast, the implementation of ordinary differential equations which estimate the time development in the number of susceptible, (exposed), infected and recovered (SIR/SEIR) individuals is still important in order to understand the stage of the pandemic. These models are based on simplified assumptions which constitute approximations, but to what extent this are erroneous is not understood since many factors can affect the development. In this paper, we introduce an agent-based model including spatial clustering and heterogeneities in connectivity and infection strength. Based on Danish population data, we estimate how this impacts the early prediction of a pandemic and compare this to the long-term development. Our results show that early phase SEIR model predictions overestimate the peak number of infected and the equilibrium level by at least a factor of two. These results are robust to variations of parameters influencing connection distances and independent of the distribution of infection rates.

Biophysical Modeling of Dopaminergic Denervation Landscapes in the Striatum Reveals New Therapeutic Strategy.

Parkinson's disease (PD) results from a loss of dopaminergic neurons. What triggers the break-down of neuronal signaling, and how this might be compensated, is not understood. The age of onset, progression and symptoms vary between patients, and our understanding of the clinical variability remains incomplete. In this study, we investigate this, by characterizing the dopaminergic landscape in healthy and denervated striatum, using biophysical modeling. Based on currently proposed mechanisms, we model three distinct denervation patterns, and show how this affect the dopaminergic network. Depending on the denervation pattern, we show how local and global differences arise in the activity of striatal neurons. Finally, we use the mathematical formalism to suggest a cellular strategy for maintaining normal dopamine (DA) signaling following neuronal denervation. This strategy is characterized by dual enhancement of both the release and uptake capacity of DA in the remaining neurons. Overall, our results derive a new conceptual framework for the impaired dopaminergic signaling related to PD and offers testable predictions for future research directions.

Physical observables to determine the nature of membrane-less cellular sub-compartments.

The spatial organization of complex biochemical reactions is essential for the regulation of cellular processes. Membrane-less structures called foci containing high concentrations of specific proteins have been reported in a variety of contexts, but the mechanism of their formation is not fully understood. Several competing mechanisms exist that are difficult to distinguish empirically, including liquid-liquid phase separation, and the trapping of molecules by multiple binding sites. Here, we propose a theoretical framework and outline observables to differentiate between these scenarios from single molecule tracking experiments. In the binding site model, we derive relations between the distribution of proteins, their diffusion properties, and their radial displacement. We predict that protein search times can be reduced for targets inside a liquid droplet, but not in an aggregate of slowly moving binding sites. We use our results to reject the multiple binding site model for Rad52 foci, and find a picture consistent with a liquid-liquid phase separation. These results are applicable to future experiments and suggest different biological roles for liquid droplet and binding site foci.

Spatiotemporal model of cellular mechanotransduction via Rho and YAP.

How cells sense and respond to mechanical stimuli remains an open question. Recent advances have identified the translocation of Yes-associated protein (YAP) between nucleus and cytoplasm as a central mechanism for sensing mechanical forces and regulating mechanotransduction. We formulate a spatiotemporal model of the mechanotransduction signalling pathway that includes coupling of YAP with the cell force-generation machinery through the Rho family of GTPases. Considering the active and inactive forms of a single Rho protein (GTP/GDP-bound) and of YAP (non-phosphorylated/phosphorylated), we study the cross-talk between cell polarization due to active Rho and YAP activation through its nuclear localization. For fixed mechanical stimuli, our model predicts stationary nuclear-to-cytoplasmic YAP ratios consistent with experimental data at varying adhesive cell area. We further predict damped and even sustained oscillations in the YAP nuclear-to-cytoplasmic ratio by accounting for recently reported positive and negative YAP-Rho feedback. Extending the framework to time-varying mechanical stimuli that simulate cyclic stretching and compression, we show that the YAP nuclear-to-cytoplasmic ratio's time dependence follows that of the cyclic mechanical stimulus. The model presents one of the first frameworks for understanding spatiotemporal YAP mechanotransduction, providing several predictions of possible YAP localization dynamics, and suggesting new directions for experimental and theoretical studies.

A tale of two rhythms: Locked clocks and chaos in biology.

The fundamental mechanisms that control and regulate biological organisms exhibit a surprising level of complexity. Oscillators are perhaps the simplest motifs that produce time-varying dynamics and are ubiquitous in biological systems. It is also known that such biological oscillators interact with each other-for instance, circadian oscillators affect the cell cycle, and somitogenesis clock proteins in adjacent cells affect each other in developing embryos. Therefore, it is vital to understand the effects that can emerge from non-linear interaction between oscillations. Here, we show how oscillations typically arise in biology and take the reader on a tour through the great variety in dynamics that can emerge even from a single pair of coupled oscillators. We explain how chaotic dynamics can emerge and outline the methods of detecting this in experimental time traces. Finally, we discuss the potential role of such complex dynamical features in biological systems.

Inferring Leading Interactions in the p53/Mdm2/Mdmx Circuit through Live-Cell Imaging and Modeling.

The tumor-suppressive transcription factor p53 is a master regulator of stress responses. In non-stressed conditions, p53 is maintained at low levels by the ubiquitin ligase Mdm2 and its binding partner Mdmx. Mdmx depletion leads to a biphasic p53 response, with an initial post-mitotic pulse followed by oscillations. The mechanism underlying this dynamical behavior is unknown. Two different roles for Mdmx have been proposed: enhancing p53 ubiquitination by Mdm2 and inhibiting p53 activity. Here, we developed a mathematical model of the p53/Mdm2/Mdmx network to investigate which Mdmx functions quantitatively affect specific features of p53 dynamics under various conditions. We found that enhancement of Mdm2 activity was the most critical role of Mdmx under unstressed conditions. The model also accurately predicted p53 dynamics in Mdmx-depleted cells following DNA damage. This work outlines a strategy for rapidly testing possible network interactions to reveal those most impactful in regulating the dynamics of key proteins.

On chaotic dynamics in transcription factors and the associated effects in differential gene regulation.

The control of proteins by a transcription factor with periodically varying concentration exhibits intriguing dynamical behaviour. Even though it is accepted that transcription factors vary their dynamics in response to different situations, insight into how this affects downstream genes is lacking. Here, we investigate how oscillations and chaotic dynamics in the transcription factor NF-κB can affect downstream protein production. We describe how it is possible to control the effective dynamics of the transcription factor by stimulating it with an oscillating ligand. We find that chaotic dynamics modulates gene expression and up-regulates certain families of low-affinity genes, even in the presence of extrinsic and intrinsic noise. Furthermore, this leads to an increase in the production of protein complexes and the efficiency of their assembly. Finally, we show how chaotic dynamics creates a heterogeneous population of cell states, and describe how this can be beneficial in multi-toxic environments.

Chaotic Dynamics Mediate Brain State Transitions, Driven by Changes in Extracellular Ion Concentrations.

Previous studies have suggested that changes in extracellular ion concentrations initiate the transition from an activity state that characterizes sleep in cortical neurons to states that characterize wakefulness. However, because neuronal activity and extracellular ion concentrations are interdependent, isolating their unique roles during sleep-wake transitions is not possible in vivo. Here, we extend the Averaged-Neuron model and demonstrate that, although changes in extracellular ion concentrations occur concurrently, decreasing the conductance of calcium-dependent potassium channels initiates the transition from sleep to wakefulness. We find that sleep is governed by stable, self-sustained oscillations in neuronal firing patterns, whereas the quiet awake state and active awake state are both governed by irregular oscillations and chaotic dynamics; transitions between these separable awake states are prompted by ionic changes. Although waking is indicative of a shift from stable to chaotic neuronal firing patterns, we illustrate that the properties of chaotic dynamics ensure that the transition between states is smooth and robust to noise.