The relationship between type, timing and duration of exposure to adverse childhood experiences and adolescent self-harm and depression: findings from three UK prospective population-based cohorts.

BACKGROUND: Adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) are well-established risk factors for self-harm and depression. However, despite their high comorbidity, there has been little focus on the impact of developmental timing and the duration of exposure to ACEs on co-occurring self-harm and depression. METHODS: Data were utilised from over 22,000 children and adolescents participating in three UK cohorts, followed up longitudinally for 14-18 years: the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC), the Millennium Cohort Study (MCS) and the Environmental Risk (E-Risk) Longitudinal Twin Study. Multinomial logistic regression models estimated associations between each ACE type and a four-category outcome: no self-harm or depression, self-harm alone, depression alone and self-harm with co-occurring depression. A structured life course modelling approach was used to examine whether the accumulation (duration) of exposure to each ACE, or a critical period (timing of ACEs) had the strongest effects on self-harm and depression in adolescence. RESULTS: The majority of ACEs were associated with co-occurring self-harm and depression, with consistent findings across cohorts. The importance of timing and duration of ACEs differed across ACEs and across cohorts. For parental mental health problems, longer duration of exposure was strongly associated with co-occurring self-harm and depression in both ALSPAC (adjusted OR: 1.18, 95% CI: 1.10-1.25) and MCS (1.18, 1.11-1.26) cohorts. For other ACEs in ALSPAC, exposure in middle childhood was most strongly associated with co-occurring self-harm and depression, and ACE occurrence in early childhood and adolescence was more important in the MCS. CONCLUSIONS: Efforts to mitigate the impact of ACEs should start in early life with continued support throughout childhood, to prevent long-term exposure to ACEs contributing to risk of self-harm and depression in adolescence.

Young People and Intimate Partner Violence: Experiences of Institutional Support and Services in England.

Purpose: Young people (YP) are at greater risk of experiencing intimate partner violence and abuse (IPVA), with high prevalence rates at 18-25 years and potentially severe short and long-term health and social impacts. YP often view adult support services as not for them and more research is needed to understand effective responses to IPVA among different groups. Methods: Semi-structured interviews alongside Life History Calendars were undertaken to explore 18 young peoples' (18-25 years) experiences of community and service level responses to their IPVA between 2019-2020. Thematic analysis and case studies were carried out. Results: Participant accounts commonly described what did or did not help within: education; primary care physicians and maternity services; third sector or non-government support organisations; and counselling and support workers. YP wanted clearer information on identifying abuse from a younger age in schools and better access and signposting to specialist services. They benefited the most from equal power dynamics in relationships with professionals where they were supported to make their own decisions. Conclusions: Professionals in all sectors (including schools) need IPVA trauma-informed training that encourages equal power dynamics, with a clear understanding of and access to referral pathways, to be able to respond to the needs of YP experiencing IPVA.

Family structure and multisite musculoskeletal pain in adolescence: a Northern Finland Birth Cohort 1986 study.

BACKGROUND: Family structure is suggested to be associated with adolescent pain, but evidence on its association with multisite MS pain is sparse. The purpose of this cross-sectional study was to investigate the potential associations between family structure ('single-parent family', 'reconstructed family', and 'two-parent family') and multisite musculoskeletal (MS) pain in adolescence. METHODS: The dataset was based on the 16-year-old Northern Finland Birth Cohort 1986 adolescents with available data on family structure, multisite MS pain, and a potential confounder (n = 5,878). The associations between family structure and multisite MS pain were analyzed with binomial logistic regression and modelled as unadjusted, as the evaluated potential confounder, mother's educational level, did not meet the criteria for a confounder. RESULTS: Overall, 13% of the adolescents had a 'single-parent family' and 8% a 'reconstructed family'. Adolescents living in a single-parent family had 36% higher odds of multisite MS pain compared to adolescents from two-parent families (the reference) (Odds Ratio [OR]: 1.36, 95% Confidence Interval [CI]: 1.17 to 1.59). Belonging to a 'reconstructed family' was associated with 39% higher odds of multisite MS pain (OR 1.39, 1.14 to 1.69). CONCLUSION: Family structure may have a role in adolescent multisite MS pain. Future research is needed on causality between family structure and multisite MS pain, to establish if there is a need for targeted support.

Categories of Intimate Partner Violence and Abuse Among Young Women and Men: Latent Class Analysis of Psychological, Physical, and Sexual Victimization and Perpetration in a UK Birth Cohort.

BACKGROUND: In the UK, around one-third of young people are exposed to Intimate Partner Violence and Abuse (IPVA) by 21 years old. However, types of IPVA victimization in this population (psychological, physical, sexual), and their relationship with impact and perpetration are poorly understood. METHODS: Participants in a UK birth cohort reported IPVA victimization and perpetration by age 21. We carried out a latent class analysis, where we categorized IPVA by types/frequency of victimization, and then assigned individuals to their most probable class. Within these classes, we then estimated rates of reported: 1) types of negative impacts (sad, upset/unhappy, anxious, depressed, affected work/studies, angry/annoyed, drank/took drugs more); 2) types/frequency of perpetration. RESULTS: Among 2130 women and 1149 men, 32% and 24% reported IPVA victimization (of which 89% and 73% reported negative impact); 21% and 16% perpetration. Victimization responses were well represented by five classes, including three apparent in both sexes: No-low victimization (characterized by low probabilities of all types of victimization; average probabilities of women and men belonging to this class were 82% and 70%); Mainly psychological (15% and 12%); Psychological and physical victimization (4% and 7%), and two classes that were specific to women: Psychological and sexual (7%); Multi-victimization (frequent victimization for all three types; 4%). In women, all types of negative impact were most common in the Psychological and sexual and Multi-victimization classes; for men, the Psychological and physical class. In women, all types of perpetration were most common for the Mainly psychological, Psychological and physical and Multi-victimization classes; in men, the Mainly psychological and Psychological and physical classes. DISCUSSION: In this study of young people, we found categories of co-occurrence of types and frequency of IPVA victimization associated with differential rates of negative impact and perpetrating IPVA. This is consistent with emerging evidence of IPVA differentiation and its variable impact in other populations.

Socioeconomic position and adverse childhood experiences as risk factors for health-related behaviour change and employment adversity during the COVID-19 pandemic: insights from a prospective cohort study in the UK.

BACKGROUND: Non-pharmaceutical interventions to reduce the spread of COVID-19 may have disproportionately affected already disadvantaged populations. METHODS: We analysed data from 2710 young adult participants of the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children. We assessed the associations of socioeconomic position (SEP) and Adverse Childhood Experiences (ACEs, e.g. abuse, neglect, measures of family dysfunction) with changes to health-related behaviours (meals, snacks, exercise, sleep, alcohol and smoking/vaping), and to financial and employment status during the first UK lockdown between March-June 2020. RESULTS: Experiencing 4+ ACEs was associated with reporting decreased sleep quantity during lockdown (OR 1.53, 95% CI: 1.07-2.18) and increased smoking and/or vaping (OR 1.85, 95% CI: 0.99-3.43); no other associations were seen between ACEs or SEP and health-related behaviour changes. Adverse financial and employment changes were more likely for people with low SEP and for people who had experienced multiple ACEs; e.g. a history of 4+ ACEs was associated with being furloughed or on other leave during lockdown (OR 1.92, 95% CI: 1.35-2.74). CONCLUSIONS: In this sample of young adults, there was little evidence that lockdown worsened inequalities in health-related behaviours. However, adverse financial and employment consequences of lockdown were more likely to be experienced by people who have already experienced socioeconomic deprivation or childhood adversity, thereby widening social inequalities and demonstrating the need for support into adulthood for those with a history of ACEs.

Being silenced, loneliness and being heard: understanding pathways to intimate partner violence & abuse in young adults. a mixed-methods study.

BACKGROUND: International research shows the significance and impact of intimate partner violence and abuse (IPVA) as a public health issue for young adults. There is a lack of qualitative research exploring pathways to IPVA. METHODS: The current mixed-methods study used qualitative interviews and analysis of longitudinal cohort data, to explore experiences of pathways to IPVA. Semi-structured Interviews alongside Life History Calendars were undertaken to explore 17 young women's (19-25 years) experiences and perceptions of pathways to IPVA in their relationships. Thematic analysis was undertaken. Based on themes identified in the qualitative analysis, quantitative analysis was conducted in data from 2127 female and 1145 male participants of the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) birth cohort study. We fitted regression models to assess the association of child maltreatment, parental domestic violence, and peer-to-peer victimisation, by age 12, with loneliness during adolescence (ages 13-14), and the association of loneliness during adolescence with IPVA (age 18-21). Mediation analysis estimated the direct effects of maltreatment on IPVA, and indirect effects through loneliness. FINDINGS: All women interviewed experienced at least one type of maltreatment, parental domestic violence, or bullying during childhood. Nearly all experienced IPVA and most had been multi-victimised. Findings indicated a circular pathway: early trauma led to isolation and loneliness, negative labelling and being silenced through negative responses to help seeking, leading to increased experiences of loneliness and intensifying vulnerability to further violence and abuse in young adulthood. The pathway was compounded by intersectionality. Potential ways to break this cycle of loneliness included being heard and supported, especially by teachers. Quantitative analysis confirmed an association between child maltreatment and loneliness in adolescence, and an association between loneliness in adolescence and experience of IPVA in young adult relationships. CONCLUSION: It is likely that negative labelling and loneliness mediate pathways to IPVA, especially among more disadvantaged young women. The impact of early maltreatment on young people's wellbeing and own relationships is compounded by disadvantage, disability and ethnicity. Participants' resilience was enabled by support in the community.

Associations between diagnostic time intervals and health-related quality of life, clinical anxiety and depression in adolescents and young adults with cancer: cross-sectional analysis of the BRIGHTLIGHT cohort.

BACKGROUND: The association of diagnostic intervals and outcomes is poorly understood in adolescents and young adults with cancer (AYA). We investigated associations between diagnostic intervals and health-related quality of life (HRQoL), anxiety and depression in a large AYA cohort. METHODS: Participants aged 12-24 completed interviews post-diagnosis, providing data on diagnostic experiences and the patient-reported outcomes (PROs) HRQoL, anxiety and depression. Demographic and cancer information were obtained from clinical and national records. Six diagnostic intervals were considered. Relationships between intervals and PROs were examined using regression models. RESULTS: Eight hundred and thirty participants completed interviews. In adjusted models, across 28 of 30 associations, longer intervals were associated with poorer PROs. Patient intervals (symptom onset to first seeing a GP) of ≥1 month were associated with greater depression (adjusted odds ratio (aOR):1.7, 95% Confidence Interval (CI):1.1-2.5) compared to <1 month. ≥3 pre-referral GP consultations were associated with greater anxiety (aOR:1.6, CI:1.1-2.3) compared to 1-2 consultations. Symptom onset to first oncology appointment intervals of ≥2 months was associated with impaired HRQoL (aOR:1.8, CI:1.2-2.5) compared to <2 months. CONCLUSIONS: Prolonged diagnostic intervals in AYA are associated with an increased risk of impaired HRQoL, anxiety and depression. Identifying and delivering interventions for this high-risk group is a priority.

Exploring the causal role of intimate partner violence and abuse on depressive symptoms in young adults: a population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies have shown an association between experience of intimate partner violence and abuse (IPVA) and depression. Whether this is a causal relationship or explained by prior vulnerability that influences the risk of both IPVA and depression is not known. METHODS: We analysed data from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children prospective cohort (N = 1764 women, 1028 men). To assess the causal association between IPVA at 18-21 years old and logged depressive symptom scores at age 23, we used (i) multivariable linear regression, (ii) inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW), and (iii) difference-in-difference (DiD) analysis, which compared the mean change in logged depressive symptom scores between ages 16 and 23 between those who experienced IPVA and those who did not. RESULTS: Women who experienced IPVA had on average 26% higher depressive symptom scores after adjustment for measured confounders (ratio of geometric means 1.26, 95% CI 1.13 to 1.40). In men, the difference was 5% (ratio of geometric means 1.05, 95% CI 0.92 to 1.21). Results from IPTW analysis were similar. In the DiD analysis, there was no evidence that being exposed to IPVA affected the change in depressive symptom scores over time compared to being in the non-exposed group for either women (difference-in-differences 1%, -12 to 16%) or men (-1%, -19 to 20%). CONCLUSIONS: Multivariable linear regression and IPTW suggested an association between IPVA and higher depressive symptom score in women but not men, but DiD analysis indicated a null effect in both women and men. This suggests the causal origins of higher depressive symptoms in this young adult population are likely to reflect prior vulnerability that leads to both higher depressive symptoms and increased risk of IPVA exposure.

Associations between Adverse Childhood Experiences and the novel inflammatory marker glycoprotein acetyls in two generations of the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children birth cohort.

BACKGROUND: Adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) are associated with increased risk of non-communicable diseases in adulthood, potentially mediated by chronic low-grade inflammation. Glycoprotein acetyls (GlycA) is a marker of chronic and cumulative inflammation. We investigated associations between ACEs and GlycA at different ages, in two generations of the population-based Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) birth cohort. METHODS: ALSPAC offspring's total ACE scores were generated for two age periods using prospectively collected data: 0-7y and 0-17y. GlycA was measured using high-resolution proton nuclear magnetic resonance at mean ages 8y, 18y, and 24y. Sample sizes ranged from: n = 5116 (8y) to n = 3085 (24y). ALSPAC mothers (n = 4634) retrospectively reported ACEs experienced before age 18y and GlycA was assessed at mean age 49y. We used multivariable linear regression to estimate associations between ACEs (total ACE score and individual ACEs) and subsequent GlycA in both samples, adjusting for key confounders. RESULTS: Mean GlycA levels were similar in offspring and mothers and over time. In offspring, there was no evidence that ACEs (total score or individual ACE) were associated with GlycA at age 8y or 18y, or 24y after adjustment for maternal age at birth and parity, maternal marital status, household occupational social class, maternal education, maternal smoking, own ethnicity, sex, and age in months. In mothers, there was evidence of a positive association between the total ACE score and GlycA at age 49y (adjusted mean difference 0.007 mmol/L; 95%CI: 0.003, 0.01). Emotional neglect was the only individual ACE associated with higher GlycA after adjusting for confounders and other ACEs. CONCLUSION: Results suggest the association between ACEs and GlycA may emerge in middle age. Future research should explore the extent to which inflammation in adulthood mediates well-documented associations between ACEs and adverse health outcomes in later life.

Predictive values for different cancers and inflammatory bowel disease of 6 common abdominal symptoms among more than 1.9 million primary care patients in the UK: A cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The diagnostic assessment of abdominal symptoms in primary care presents a challenge. Evidence is needed about the positive predictive values (PPVs) of abdominal symptoms for different cancers and inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). METHODS AND FINDINGS: Using data from The Health Improvement Network (THIN) in the United Kingdom (2000-2017), we estimated the PPVs for diagnosis of (i) cancer (overall and for different cancer sites); (ii) IBD; and (iii) either cancer or IBD in the year post-consultation with each of 6 abdominal symptoms: dysphagia (n = 86,193 patients), abdominal bloating/distension (n = 100,856), change in bowel habit (n = 106,715), rectal bleeding (n = 235,094), dyspepsia (n = 517,326), and abdominal pain (n = 890,490). The median age ranged from 54 (abdominal pain) to 63 years (dysphagia and change in bowel habit); the ratio of women/men ranged from 50%:50% (rectal bleeding) to 73%:27% (abdominal bloating/distension). Across all studied symptoms, the risk of diagnosis of cancer and the risk of diagnosis of IBD were of similar magnitude, particularly in women, and younger men. Estimated PPVs were greatest for change in bowel habit in men (4.64% cancer and 2.82% IBD) and for rectal bleeding in women (2.39% cancer and 2.57% IBD) and lowest for dyspepsia (for cancer: 1.41% men and 1.03% women; for IBD: 0.89% men and 1.00% women). Considering PPVs for specific cancers, change in bowel habit and rectal bleeding had the highest PPVs for colon and rectal cancer; dysphagia for esophageal cancer; and abdominal bloating/distension (in women) for ovarian cancer. The highest PPVs of abdominal pain (either sex) and abdominal bloating/distension (men only) were for non-abdominal cancer sites. For the composite outcome of diagnosis of either cancer or IBD, PPVs of rectal bleeding exceeded the National Institute of Health and Care Excellence (NICE)-recommended specialist referral threshold of 3% in all age-sex strata, as did PPVs of abdominal pain, change in bowel habit, and dyspepsia, in those aged 60 years and over. Study limitations include reliance on accuracy and completeness of coding of symptoms and disease outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Based on evidence from more than 1.9 million patients presenting in primary care, the findings provide estimated PPVs that could be used to guide specialist referral decisions, considering the PPVs of common abdominal symptoms for cancer alongside that for IBD and their composite outcome (cancer or IBD), taking into account the variable PPVs of different abdominal symptoms for different cancers sites. Jointly assessing the risk of cancer or IBD can better support decision-making and prompt diagnosis of both conditions, optimising specialist referrals or investigations, particularly in women.

Stage-specific incidence trends of renal cancers in the East of England, 1999-2016.

OBJECTIVES: To determine stage-specific time-trends in renal cancer incidence. METHODS: We used population-based East Anglia data 1999-2016 (population ∼2 million) on 5,456 primary renal cancer diagnoses, estimating stage-specific annual incidence using Poisson regression, allowing for changing time-trends, and adjusting for sex, age, and socioeconomic deprivation. RESULTS: Renal cancer incidence increased from 9.8-16.4 cases per 100,000 during 1999-2016. Incidence of Stage I, II, and III cases increased over time, most steeply for Stage I, with annual Incidence Rate Ratio [IRR] for Stage I of 1.09 (95 % CI 1.07-1.12) during 1999-2010; and 1.03 (1.00-1.05) during 2011-2016. In contrast, the annual incidence of Stage IV renal cancer decreased during most years, IRR of 0.99 (0.98-1.00) during 2003-2016. CONCLUSION: The findings are consistent with both earlier detection of symptomatic renal cancer and increasing identification of asymptomatic lesions. However, the decreasing incidence of late-stage disease suggests genuine shifts towards earlier diagnosis.

Collider bias undermines our understanding of COVID-19 disease risk and severity.

Numerous observational studies have attempted to identify risk factors for infection with SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 disease outcomes. Studies have used datasets sampled from patients admitted to hospital, people tested for active infection, or people who volunteered to participate. Here, we highlight the challenge of interpreting observational evidence from such non-representative samples. Collider bias can induce associations between two or more variables which affect the likelihood of an individual being sampled, distorting associations between these variables in the sample. Analysing UK Biobank data, compared to the wider cohort the participants tested for COVID-19 were highly selected for a range of genetic, behavioural, cardiovascular, demographic, and anthropometric traits. We discuss the mechanisms inducing these problems, and approaches that could help mitigate them. While collider bias should be explored in existing studies, the optimal way to mitigate the problem is to use appropriate sampling strategies at the study design stage.

Association of Self-reported Presenting Symptoms With Timeliness of Help-Seeking Among Adolescents and Young Adults With Cancer in the BRIGHTLIGHT Study.

Importance: Evidence regarding the presenting symptoms of cancer in adolescents and young adults can support the development of early diagnosis interventions. Objective: To examine common presenting symptoms in adolescents and young adults aged 12 to 24 years who subsequently received a diagnosis of cancer and potential variation in time to help-seeking by presenting symptom. Design, Setting, and Participants: This multicenter study is a cross-sectional analysis of the BRIGHTLIGHT cohort study, which was conducted across hospitals in England. Participants included adolescents and young adults aged 12 to 24 years with cancer. Information on 17 prespecified presenting symptoms and the interval between symptom onset and help-seeking (the patient interval) was collected through structured face-to-face interviews and was linked to national cancer registry data. Data analysis was performed from January 2018 to August 2019. Exposures: Self-reported presenting symptoms. Main Outcomes and Measures: The main outcomes were frequencies of presenting symptoms and associated symptom signatures by cancer group and the proportion of patients with each presenting symptom whose patient interval was longer than 1 month. Results: The study population consisted of 803 adolescents and young adults with valid symptom information (443 male [55%]; 509 [63%] aged 19-24 years; 705 [88%] White). The number of symptoms varied by cancer group: for example, 88 patients with leukemia (86%) presented with 2 or more symptoms, whereas only 9 patients with melanoma (31%) presented with multiple symptoms. In total, 352 unique symptom combinations were reported, with the 10 most frequent combinations accounting for 304 patients (38%). Lump or swelling was reported by more than one-half the patients (419 patients [52%; 95% CI, 49%-56%]). Other common presenting symptoms across all cancers were extreme tiredness (308 patients [38%; 95% CI, 35%-42%]), unexplained pain (281 patients [35%; 95% CI, 32%-38%]), night sweats (192 patients [24%; 95% CI, 21%-27%]), lymphadenopathy (191 patients [24%; 95% CI, 21%-27%]), and weight loss (190 patients [24%; 95% CI, 21%-27%]). The relative frequencies of presenting symptoms also varied by cancer group; some symptoms (such as lump or swelling) were highly prevalent across several cancer groups (seen in >50% of patients with lymphomas, germ cell cancers, carcinomas, bone tumors, and soft-tissue sarcomas). More than 1 in 4 patients (27%) reported a patient interval longer than 1 month; this varied from 6% (1 patient) for fits and seizures to 43% (18 patients) for recurrent infections. Conclusions and Relevance: Adolescents and young adults with cancer present with a broad spectrum of symptoms, some of which are shared across cancer types. These findings point to discordant presenting symptom prevalence estimates when information is obtained from patient report vs health records and indicate the need for further symptom epidemiology research in this population.

The Spectre of Berkson's Paradox: Collider Bias in Covid-19 Research.

When non-random sampling collides with our understanding of Covid-19 risk, we must be careful not to draw incorrect conclusions about cause and effect. By Annie Herbert, Gareth Griffith, Gibran Hemani and Luisa Zuccolo.

Risk factors for intimate partner violence and abuse among adolescents and young adults: findings from a UK population-based cohort.

Background: Approximately one-third of young people in the UK have suffered intimate partner violence and abuse (IPVA) on reaching adulthood. We need interventions to prevent IPVA in this population, but there is a lack of evidence on who is at greatest risk. Methods: We analysed questionnaire data from 3,279 participants of the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children population-based birth cohort. We estimated the prevalence of IPVA victimisation and perpetration by age 21, by sex, demographic, parenting, mental health, externalising behaviour (e.g. smoking), educational, employment, and adverse childhood factors. Results: Overall, 29% of males and 41% of females reported IPVA victimisation, with 20% and 25% reporting perpetration, respectively (16% and 22% both). The most common sub-type was emotional, followed by physical, then sexual. History of self-harm, anti-social behaviour, cannabis or illicit (non-cannabis) drug use among boys and girls was associated with a two-fold increase in likelihood of IPVA (victimisation or perpetration). Males reporting risky sexual behaviour, sexual abuse (not by an intimate partner), or witnessing domestic violence, and females reporting sexual minority status in adolescence were also twice as likely to experience IPVA. Extreme parental monitoring during adolescence was associated with a reduced risk of IPVA in males and females, as was not being in education, employment, or training for young adult men. Conclusions: A range of demographic, mental health, and behavioural factors were associated with increased prevalence of IPVA victimisation or perpetration. Further study of likely complex pathways from these factors to IPVA, to inform primary prevention, is needed.

Stage-specific incidence trends of melanoma in an English region, 1996-2015: longitudinal analyses of population-based data.

The aim of this study was to examine temporal trends in overall and stage-specific incidence of melanoma. Using population-based data on patients diagnosed with melanoma in East Anglia, England, 1996-2015, we estimated age-standardized time trends in annual incidence rates for each stage at diagnosis. Negative binomial regression was used to model trends over time adjusted for sex, age group and deprivation, and to subsequently examine variation in stage-specific trends by sex and age group. The age-standardized incidence increased from 14 to 29 cases/100 000 persons (i.e. 4% annually). Increasing incidence was apparent across all stages but was steepest for stage I [adjusted annual increase: 5%, 95% confidence interval (CI): 5-6%, and more gradual for stage II-IV disease (stage II: 3%, 95% CI: 2-4%; stage III/IV: 2%, 95% CI: 1-3%)]. Stage II-IV increase was apparent in men across age groups and in women aged 50 years or older. Increases in incidence were steeper in those aged 70 years or older, and in men. The findings suggest that both a genuine increase in the incidence of consequential illness and a degree of overdiagnosis may be responsible for the observed increasing incidence trends in melanoma in our population during the study period. They also suggest the potentially lower effectiveness of public health awareness campaigns in men and older people.

Cancer diagnoses after emergency GP referral or A&E attendance in England: determinants and time trends in Routes to Diagnosis data, 2006-2015.

BACKGROUND: Diagnosis of cancer as an emergency is associated with poor outcomes but has a complex aetiology. Examining determinants and time trends in diagnostic routes can help to appreciate the critical role of general practice over time in diagnostic pathways for patients with cancer. AIM: To examine sociodemographic, cancer site, and temporal associations with type of presentation among patients with cancer diagnosed as emergencies. DESIGN AND SETTING: Analysis of Routes to Diagnosis data, 2006-2015, for patients with cancer in England. METHOD: The authors estimated adjusted proportions of emergency presentation after emergency GP referral (GP-EP) or presentation to accident and emergency (AE-EP), by patient sex, age, deprivation group, and year of diagnosis using multivariable regression. RESULTS: Among 554 621 patients presenting as emergencies, 24% (n = 130 372) presented as GP-EP, 62% as AE-EP (n = 346 192), and 14% (n = 78 057) through Other-EP sub-routes. Patients presenting as emergencies were more likely to have been GP-referred if they lived in less deprived areas or were subsequently diagnosed with pancreatic, gallbladder, or ovarian cancer, or acute leukaemia. During the study period the proportion and number of GP-EPs nearly halved (31%, n = 17 364, in 2006; 17%, n = 9155 in 2015), while that of AE-EP increased (55%, n = 31 049 to 68%, n = 36 868). CONCLUSION: Patients presenting as emergencies with cancers characterised by symptoms/signs tolerable by patients but appropriately alarming to doctors (for example, pancreatic cancer manifesting as painless jaundice) are over-represented among cases whose emergency presentation involved GP referral. Reductions in diagnoses of cancer through an emergency presentation likely reflect both the continually increasing use of 2-week-wait GP referrals during the study period and reductions in emergency GP referrals.

Are inequalities in cancer diagnosis through emergency presentation narrowing, widening or remaining unchanged? Longitudinal analysis of English population-based data 2006-2013.

BACKGROUND: Diagnosis of cancer through emergency presentation is associated with poorer prognosis. While reductions in emergency presentations have been described, whether known sociodemographic inequalities are changing is uncertain. METHODS: We analysed 'Routes to Diagnosis' data on patients aged ≥25 years diagnosed in England during 2006-2013 with any of 33 common or rarer cancers. Using binary logistic regression we determined time-trends in diagnosis through emergency presentation by age, deprivation and cancer site. RESULTS: Overall adjusted proportions of emergency presentations decreased during the study period (2006: 23%, 2013: 20%). Substantial baseline (2006) inequalities in emergency presentation risk by age and deprivation remained largely unchanged. There was evidence (p<0.05) of reductions in the risk of emergency presentations for most (28/33) cancer sites, without apparent associations between the size of reduction and baseline risk (p=0.26). If there had been modest reductions in age inequalities (ie, patients in each age group acquiring the same percentage of emergency presentations as the adjacent group with lower risk), in the last study year we could have expected around 11 000 fewer diagnoses through emergency presentation (ie, a nationwide percentage of 16% rather than the observed 20%). For similarly modest reductions in deprivation inequalities, we could have expected around 3000 fewer (ie, 19%). CONCLUSION: The proportion of cancer diagnoses through emergency presentation is decreasing but age and deprivation inequalities prevail, indicating untapped opportunities for further improvements by reducing these inequalities. The observed reductions in proportions across nearly all cancer sites are likely to reflect both earlier help-seeking and improvements in diagnostic healthcare pathways, across both easier-to-suspect and harder-to-suspect cancers.

Vision Impairment and Risk of Dementia: Findings from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing.

OBJECTIVES: To determine whether vision impairment is independently associated cross-sectionally and longitudinally with dementia. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. SETTING: English Longitudinal Study of Ageing. PARTICIPANTS: Individuals aged 50 and older MEASUREMENTS: Cross-sectional association between self-rated vision (poor or blind, moderate, normal) and dementia was analyzed, adjusting for potential confounders (sex, wealth, education, cardiovascular risk factors) using multivariable logistic regression. We also modelled the adjusted longitudinal association between vision impairment and dementia over an average of 11 years of follow-up using Cox proportional hazards regression for individuals aged 50 to 69 and those aged 70 and older. RESULTS: After adjustment for confounders, participants who rated their vision as moderate were 2.0 (95% confidence interval (CI)=1.4-3.1) times as likely as those with normal vision to have dementia, and those who rated their vision as poor were 4.0 (95% CI=2.6-6.1) times as likely. Longitudinally, individuals aged 50 to 69 who rated their vision as moderate (1.8, 95% CI=1.0-3.0) or poor (3.6, 95% CI=1.1-11.8) were at greater risk of developing dementia than those who rated their vision as normal. There was no significant difference in risk in those aged 70 and older. CONCLUSION: Our study confirms and extends findings from other countries, demonstrating cross-sectional associations between moderate and poor self-rated vision and dementia in England in all participants aged 50 and older and longitudinally over an 11-year period in those aged 50 to 69. These results help establish vision loss as a risk factor for dementia, although it is unclear why. Research is needed to determine whether screening and treatment for vision loss may slow cognitive decline.