Real-Time Use of a Dynamic Model To Measure the Impact of Public Health Interventions on Measles Outbreak Size and Duration - Chicago, Illinois, 2024.

Measles is a highly infectious, vaccine-preventable disease that can cause severe illness, hospitalization, and death. A measles outbreak associated with a migrant shelter in Chicago occurred during February-April 2024, in which a total of 57 confirmed cases were identified, including 52 among shelter residents, three among staff members, and two among community members with a known link to the shelter. CDC simulated a measles outbreak among shelter residents using a dynamic disease model, updated in real time as additional cases were identified, to produce outbreak forecasts and assess the impact of public health interventions. As of April 8, the model forecasted a median final outbreak size of 58 cases (IQR = 56-60 cases); model fit and prediction range improved as more case data became available. Counterfactual analysis of different intervention scenarios demonstrated the importance of early deployment of public health interventions in Chicago, with a 69% chance of an outbreak of 100 or more cases had there been no mass vaccination or active case-finding compared with only a 1% chance when those interventions were deployed. This analysis highlights the value of using real-time, dynamic models to aid public health response, set expectations about outbreak size and duration, and quantify the impact of interventions. The model shows that prompt mass vaccination and active case-finding likely substantially reduced the chance of a large (100 or more cases) outbreak in Chicago.

Complete genome of a 2014 isolate of peste des petits ruminants virus from Ethiopia.

This report describes the complete genome sequence of a peste des petits ruminants virus (PPRV) isolate from Ethiopia in 2014. The strain (PPRV/Ethiopia/Habru/2014), which showed a normal virulence and relatively low morbidity in the field, belongs to the North African subclade of Lineage IV.

A longitudinal study of the impact of university student return to campus on the SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence among the community members.

Returning university students represent large-scale, transient demographic shifts and a potential source of transmission to adjacent communities during the COVID-19 pandemic. In this prospective longitudinal cohort study, we tested for IgG antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 in a non-random cohort of residents living in Centre County prior to the Fall 2020 term at the Pennsylvania State University and following the conclusion of the Fall 2020 term. We also report the seroprevalence in a non-random cohort of students collected at the end of the Fall 2020 term. Of 1313 community participants, 42 (3.2%) were positive for SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies at their first visit between 07 August and 02 October 2020. Of 684 student participants who returned to campus for fall instruction, 208 (30.4%) were positive for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies between 26 October and 21 December. 96 (7.3%) community participants returned a positive IgG antibody result by 19 February. Only contact with known SARS-CoV-2-positive individuals and attendance at small gatherings (20-50 individuals) were significant predictors of detecting IgG antibodies among returning students (aOR, 95% CI 3.1, 2.07-4.64; 1.52, 1.03-2.24; respectively). Despite high seroprevalence observed within the student population, seroprevalence in a longitudinal cohort of community residents was low and stable from before student arrival for the Fall 2020 term to after student departure. The study implies that heterogeneity in SARS-CoV-2 transmission can occur in geographically coincident populations.

Detection of Newcastle disease virus and assessment of associated relative risk in backyard and commercial poultry in Kerala, India.

BACKGROUND: Newcastle disease (ND) is an economically important viral disease affecting the poultry industry. In Kerala, a state in South India, incidences of ND in commercial and backyard poultry have been reported. But a systematic statewide study on the prevalence of the disease has not been carried out. OBJECTIVES: A cross-sectional survey was performed to detect the presence of Newcastle disease virus (NDV) in suspect cases and among apparently healthy commercial flocks and backyard poultry, in the state and to identify risk factors for NDV infection. METHODS: Real-time reverse transcription-PCR (RT-PCR) was used to detect the M gene of NDV in choanal swabs and tissue samples collected from live and dead birds, respectively and the results were statistically analysed. RESULTS: The predominant clinical signs of the examined birds included mild respiratory signs, huddling together and greenish diarrhoea. Nervous signs in the form of torticollis were noticed in birds in some of the affected flocks. On necropsy, many birds had haemorrhages in the proventriculus and caecal tonsils which were suggestive of ND. Of the 2079 samples tested, 167 (8.0%) were positive for the NDV M-gene by RT-PCR. Among 893 samples collected from diseased flocks, 129 (14.5%), were positive for M gene with pairwise relative risk (RR) of 15.6 as compared to apparently healthy flocks where 6 out of 650 (0.9%) samples were positive. All positive samples were from poultry; none of the ducks, pigeons, turkey and wild birds were positive. Commercial broilers were at higher risk of infection than commercial layers (RR: 4.5) and backyard poultry (RR: 4.9). Similarly, birds reared under intensive housing conditions were at a higher risk of being infected as compared to those reared under semi-intensive (RR: 6.7) or backyard housing (RR: 2.1). Multivariable analysis indicated that significantly higher risk of infection exists during migratory season and during ND outbreaks occurring nearby. Further, lower risk was observed with flock vaccination and backyard or semi-intensive housing when compared to intensive housing. When the M gene positive samples were tested by RT-PCR to determine whether the detected NDV were mesogenic/velogenic, 7 (4.2%) were positive. CONCLUSIONS: In Kerala, NDV is endemic in poultry with birds reared commercially under intensive rearing systems being affected the most. The outcome of this study also provides a link between epidemiologic knowledge and the development of successful disease control measures. Statistical analysis suggests that wild bird migration season and presence of migratory birds influences the prevalence of the virus in the State. Further studies are needed to genotype and sub-genotype the detected viruses and to generate baseline data on the prevalence of NDV strains, design better detection strategies, and determine patterns of NDV transmission across domestic poultry and wild bird populations in Kerala.

Prevalence of Newcastle disease and associated risk factors in domestic chickens in the Indian state of Odisha.

Newcastle disease (ND), caused by Newcastle disease virus (NDV), is a contagious disease that affects a variety of domestic and wild avian species. Though ND is vaccine-preventable, it is a persistent threat to poultry industry across the globe. The disease represents a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in chickens. To better understand the epidemiology of NDV among commercial and backyard chickens of Odisha, where chicken farming is being prioritized to assist with poverty alleviation, a cross-sectional study was conducted in two distinct seasons during 2018. Choanal swabs (n = 1361) from live birds (commercial layers, broilers, and backyard chicken) and tracheal tissues from dead birds (n = 10) were collected and tested by real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) for the presence of matrix (M) and fusion (F) genes of NDV. Risk factors at the flock and individual bird levels (health status, ND vaccination status, geographical zone, management system, and housing) were assessed using multivariable logistic regression analyses. Of the 1371 samples tested, 160 were positive for M gene amplification indicating an overall apparent prevalence of 11.7% (95% CI 10.1-13.5%). Circulation of virulent NDV strains was also evident with apparent prevalence of 8.1% (13/160; 95% CI: 4.8-13.4%). In addition, commercial birds had significantly higher odds (75%) of being infected with NDV as compared to backyard poultry (p = 0.01). This study helps fill a knowledge gap in the prevalence and distribution of NDV in apparently healthy birds in eastern India, and provides a framework for future longitudinal research of NDV risk and mitigation in targeted geographies-a step forward for effective control of ND in Odisha.

Both consumptive and non-consumptive effects of predators impact mosquito populations and have implications for disease transmission.

Predator-prey interactions influence prey traits through both consumptive and non-consumptive effects, and variation in these traits can shape vector-borne disease dynamics. Meta-analysis methods were employed to generate predation effect sizes by different categories of predators and mosquito prey. This analysis showed that multiple families of aquatic predators are effective in consumptively reducing mosquito survival, and that the survival of Aedes, Anopheles, and Culex mosquitoes is negatively impacted by consumptive effects of predators. Mosquito larval size was found to play a more important role in explaining the heterogeneity of consumptive effects from predators than mosquito genus. Mosquito survival and body size were reduced by non-consumptive effects of predators, but development time was not significantly impacted. In addition, Culex vectors demonstrated predator avoidance behavior during oviposition. The results of this meta-analysis suggest that predators limit disease transmission by reducing both vector survival and vector size, and that associations between drought and human West Nile virus cases could be driven by the vector behavior of predator avoidance during oviposition. These findings are likely to be useful to infectious disease modelers who rely on vector traits as predictors of transmission.

Mosquitoes are often referred to as the deadliest animals on earth because some species spread malaria, West Nile virus or other dangerous diseases when they bite humans and other animals. Adult mosquitoes fly to streams, ponds and other freshwater environments to lay their eggs. When the eggs hatch, the young mosquitoes live in the water until they are ready to grow wings and transform into adults. In the water, the young mosquitoes are particularly vulnerable to being eaten by dragonfly larvae, fish and other predators. When adult females are choosing where to lay their eggs, they can use their sense of smell to detect these predators and attempt to avoid them. Along with eating the mosquitoes, the predators may also reduce mosquito populations in other ways. For example, predators can disrupt feeding among young mosquitoes, which may affect the time that it takes for them to grow into adults or the size of their bodies once they reach the adult stage. Although the impacts of different predators have been tested separately in multiple settings, the overall effects of predators on the ability of mosquitoes to spread diseases to humans remain unclear. To address this question, Russell, Herzog et al. used an approach called meta-analysis on data from previous studies. The analysis found that along with increasing the death rates of mosquitoes, the presence of predators also leads to a reduction in the body size of those mosquitoes that survive, causing them to have shorter lifespans and fewer offspring. Russell, Herzog et al. found that one type of mosquito known as Culex ­ which carries West Nile virus ­ avoided laying its eggs near predators. During droughts, increased predation in streams, ponds and other aquatic environments may lead adult female Culex mosquitoes to lay their eggs closer to residential areas with fewer predators. Russell, Herzog et al. propose that this may be one reason why outbreaks of West Nile virus in humans are more likely to occur during droughts. In the future, these findings may help researchers to predict outbreaks of West Nile virus, malaria and other diseases carried by mosquitoes more accurately. Furthermore, the work of Russell, Herzog et al. provides examples of mosquito predators that could be used as biocontrol agents to decrease numbers of mosquitoes in certain regions.

Prevalence of Newcastle Disease Virus in Commercial and Backyard Poultry in Haryana, India.

Newcastle disease virus (NDV) causes Newcastle disease (ND) in poultry. The ND is a highly contagious disease, which is endemic in several countries despite regular vaccination with live or killed vaccines. Studies on NDV in India are mostly targeted toward its detection and characterization from disease outbreaks. A surveillance study was undertaken to determine NDV prevalence throughout the state of Haryana from March 2018 to March 2020 using a stratified sampling scheme. The state was divided into three different zones and a total of 4,001 choanal swab samples were collected from backyard poultry, commercial broilers, and layers. These samples were tested for the M gene of NDV using real-time RT-PCR. Of the 4,001 samples tested, 392 were positive (9.8% apparent prevalence; 95% CI: 8.9-10.8%) for the M gene. Of these 392 M gene positive samples, 35 (8.9%; 95% CI: 6.4-12.3%) were found to be positive based on F gene real-time RT-PCR. Circulation of NDV in commercial and backyard poultry highlights the importance of surveillance studies even in apparently healthy flocks. The information generated in this study should contribute to better understanding of NDV epidemiology in India and may help formulate appropriate disease control strategies for commercial and backyard birds.

SARS-CoV-2 Seroprevalence in a University Community: A Longitudinal Study of the Impact of Student Return to Campus on Infection Risk Among Community Members.

BACKGROUND: Returning university students represent large-scale, transient demographic shifts and a potential source of transmission to adjacent communities during the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: In this prospective longitudinal cohort study, we tested for IgG antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 in a non-random cohort of residents living in Centre County prior to the Fall 2020 term at the Pennsylvania State University and following the conclusion of the Fall 2020 term. We also report the seroprevalence in a non-random cohort of students collected at the end of the Fall 2020 term. RESULTS: Of 1313 community participants, 42 (3.2%) were positive for SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies at their first visit between 07 August and 02 October 2020. Of 684 student participants who returned to campus for fall instruction, 208 (30.4%) were positive for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies between 26 October and 21 December. 96 (7.3%) community participants returned a positive IgG antibody result by 19 February. Only contact with known SARS-CoV-2-positive individuals and attendance at small gatherings (20-50 individuals) were significant predictors of detecting IgG antibodies among returning students (aOR, 95% CI: 3.1, 2.07-4.64; 1.52, 1.03-2.24; respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Despite high seroprevalence observed within the student population, seroprevalence in a longitudinal cohort of community residents was low and stable from before student arrival for the Fall 2020 term to after student departure. The study implies that heterogeneity in SARS-CoV-2 transmission can occur in geographically coincident populations.

Limited window for donation of convalescent plasma with high live-virus neutralizing antibody titers for COVID-19 immunotherapy.

Millions of individuals who have recovered from SARS-CoV-2 infection may be eligible to participate in convalescent plasma donor programs, yet the optimal window for donating high neutralizing titer convalescent plasma for COVID-19 immunotherapy remains unknown. Here we studied the response trajectories of antibodies directed to the SARS-CoV-2 surface spike glycoprotein and in vitro SARS-CoV-2 live virus neutralizing titers (VN) in 175 convalescent donors longitudinally sampled for up to 142 days post onset of symptoms (DPO). We observed robust IgM, IgG, and viral neutralization responses to SARS-CoV-2 that persist, in the aggregate, for at least 100 DPO. However, there is a notable decline in VN titers ≥160 for convalescent plasma therapy, starting 60 DPO. The results also show that individuals 30 years of age or younger have significantly lower VN, IgG and IgM antibody titers than those in the older age groups; and individuals with greater disease severity also have significantly higher IgM and IgG antibody titers. Taken together, these findings define the optimal window for donating convalescent plasma useful for immunotherapy of COVID-19 patients and reveal important predictors of an ideal plasma donor.

Peste des petits ruminants Virus Transmission Scaling and Husbandry Practices That Contribute to Increased Transmission Risk: An Investigation among Sheep, Goats, and Cattle in Northern Tanzania.

Peste des petits ruminants virus (PPRV) causes an infectious disease of high morbidity and mortality among sheep and goats which impacts millions of livestock keepers globally. PPRV transmission risk varies by production system, but a deeper understanding of how transmission scales in these systems and which husbandry practices impact risk is needed. To investigate transmission scaling and husbandry practice-associated risk, this study combined 395 household questionnaires with over 7115 cross-sectional serosurvey samples collected in Tanzania among agropastoral and pastoral households managing sheep, goats, or cattle (most managed all three, n = 284, 71.9%). Although self-reported compound-level herd size was significantly larger in pastoral than agropastoral households, the data show no evidence that household herd force of infection (FOI, per capita infection rate of susceptible hosts) increased with herd size. Seroprevalence and FOI patterns observed at the sub-village level showed significant spatial variation in FOI. Univariate analyses showed that household herd FOI was significantly higher when households reported seasonal grazing camp attendance, cattle or goat introduction to the compound, death, sale, or giving away of animals in the past 12 months, when cattle were grazed separately from sheep and goats, and when the household also managed dogs or donkeys. Multivariable analyses revealed that species, production system type, and goat or sheep introduction or seasonal grazing camp attendance, cattle or goat death or sales, or goats given away in the past 12 months significantly increased odds of seroconversion, whereas managing pigs or cattle attending seasonal grazing camps had significantly lower odds of seroconversion. Further research should investigate specific husbandry practices across production systems in other countries and in systems that include additional atypical host species to broaden understanding of PPRV transmission.

Metabolic syndrome in the Military Health System based on electronic health data, 2009-2012.

Metabolic syndrome prevalence in the United States rose from 27% to 34.2% between 1999-2000 and 1999-2006. However, prevalence has not been determined in the Military Health System. This retrospective descriptive study included enrolled Military Health System adults during fiscal years 2009-2012. We explored three populations (nonactive duty, active duty, and Air Force active duty) and their metabolic syndrome components (body mass index or waist circumference, blood glucose test, triglyceride, high density lipoprotein, and blood pressure). The active duty sample (who had all five components measured) was representative of its population, but the nonactive duty sample was not. Therefore, we reported component-wise prevalence for both nonactive and active duty populations, but only reported prevalence of metabolic syndrome for active duty. A decreasing trend, greater in men, was seen. Crude prevalence in 2012 was higher among men and highest among males and females aged 45-64. Only Air Force active duty data contained waist circumference measurements, enabling comparison to the United States. This subgroup prevalence was significantly lower than the United States prevalence in 2010 for both genders in every age group. Although decreasing metabolic syndrome prevalence is promising, prevalence is still high and future research should explore policies to help lower the prevalence.

A comparison of obesity prevalence: military health system and United States populations, 2009-2012.

Overweight and obesity prevalence has increased over the past 30 years. Few studies have looked at the enrolled Military Health System (MHS) population (2.2 million per year). This descriptive study examined trends in overweight and obesity in both children and adults from fiscal years 2009 to 2012 and compared them to the U.S. population. Prevalence in MHS children decreased over time for overweight (14.2-13.8%) and obesity (11.7-10.9%). Active duty adults showed an increase in overweight prevalence (52.7-53.4%) and a decrease in obesity prevalence (18.9-18.3%). For nonactive duty, both overweight and obesity prevalence remained relatively unchanged around 33%. For both children and adults, overweight and obesity prevalence increased with age, except for obesity in the nonactive duty ≥ 65 subgroup. When compared to the United States by gender and age, MHS children generally had a lower overweight and obesity prevalence, active duty adults had higher overweight and lower obesity prevalence, and nonactive duty adults had comparable overweight and obesity prevalence, except for obesity in both men in the 40 to 59 subgroup and women in ≥ 60 subgroup. More research on the MHS population is needed to identify risk factors and modifiable health behaviors that could defeat the disease of obesity.

Estimating diabetes prevalence in the Military Health System population from 2006 to 2010.

Evidence-based articles have demonstrated an increase in diabetes prevalence, but diabetes prevalence in the enrolled Military Health System population was previously understudied. Variability in diabetes prevalence rates calculated from 5 groups of algorithms was examined in the Military Health System population (3 million enrollees per year) from fiscal years 2006 to 2010. Time trend analysis and rate comparisons to the U.S. population were also performed. Increasing linear trends in diabetes prevalence from 2006 to 2010 were seen in all algorithms, though considerable rate variation was observed within each study year. Prevalence increased with age, except for a slight decrease in those ≥75 years. Overall diagnosed diabetes prevalence ranged from 7.26% to 11.22% in 2006 and from 8.29% to 13.55% in 2010. Prevalence among active duty members remained stable, but a significant upward trend was observed among nonactive duty members across study years. Age-standardized rates among nonactive duty females were higher than the U.S. population rates from 2006 to 2010. This study demonstrates prevalence rate variability because of differing case algorithms and shows evidence of a growing diabetes population in the Military Health System, specifically within the nonactive duty 45 years and older demographic groups. Further research of this population should focus on validation of case definitions.