Updated Public Health Impact and Cost Effectiveness of Recombinant Zoster Vaccine in Canadian Adults Aged 50 Years and Older.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to update previously estimated public health impact and cost effectiveness of recombinant zoster vaccine (RZV) for the prevention of herpes zoster (HZ) in Canadians aged ≥50 years using longer-term RZV efficacy and waning data and real-world coverage and completion. METHODS: A multicohort Markov model was used to conduct a cost-utility analysis comparing RZV with no HZ vaccination among Canadians aged ≥50 years. Real-world data were used for first-dose coverage (17.5%) and second-dose completion (65%). Vaccine efficacy and waning data were applied from up to 8-year follow-up from the ZOE-50 and ZOE-70 clinical trials. Incremental costs and benefits were calculated using a lifetime horizon from the healthcare payer (base case) and societal perspectives. A discount rate of 1.5% was applied to costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). RESULTS: The model estimated that RZV would prevent 303,835 HZ cases, 83,256 post-herpetic neuralgia (PHN) cases, 39,653 other complications, and 99 HZ-related deaths compared with no HZ vaccination. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were estimated to be $27,486 and $22,097 per QALY (2022 Canadian dollars [CAN$]) from the healthcare payer and societal perspectives, respectively. The base-case ICER was most sensitive to a lower percentage of initial HZ cases with PHN. Almost all probabilistic sensitivity analysis simulations (98.1%) resulted in ICERs

Assessing the Impact of COVID-19 on HIV Outcomes in the United States: A Modeling Study.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic impacted sexual behaviors and the HIV continuum of care in the United States, reducing HIV testing and diagnosis, and use of preexposure prophylaxis and antiretroviral therapy. We aimed to understand the future implications of these effects through a modeling study. METHODS: We first ran our compartmental model of HIV transmission in the United States accounting for pandemic-related short-term changes in transmission behavior and HIV prevention and care provision in 2020 to 2021 only. We then ran a comparison scenario that did not apply pandemic effects but assumed a continuation of past HIV prevention and care trends. We compared results from the 2 scenarios through 2024. RESULTS: HIV incidence was 4·4% lower in 2020 to 2021 for the pandemic scenario compared with the no-pandemic scenario because of reduced levels of transmission behavior, despite reductions in HIV prevention and care caused by the pandemic. However, reduced care led to less viral load suppression among people with HIV in 2020, and in turn, our model resulted in a slightly greater incidence of 2·0% from 2022 to 2024 in the COVID-19 scenario, as compared with the non-COVID scenario. DISCUSSION: Disruptions in HIV prevention and care services during COVID-19 may lead to somewhat higher postpandemic HIV incidence than assuming prepandemic trends in HIV care and prevention continued. These results underscore the importance of continuing to increase HIV prevention and care efforts in the coming years.

Characterization of an Acinetobacter baumannii Monofunctional Phosphomethylpyrimidine Kinase That Is Inhibited by Pyridoxal Phosphate.

Thiamin and its phosphate derivatives are ubiquitous molecules involved as essential cofactors in many cellular processes. The de novo biosynthesis of thiamin employs the parallel synthesis of 4-methyl-5-(2-hydroxyethyl)thiazole (THZ-P) and 4-amino-2-methyl-5(diphosphooxymethyl) pyrimidine (HMP) pyrophosphate (HMP-PP), which are coupled to generate thiamin phosphate. Most organisms that can biosynthesize thiamin employ a kinase (HMPK or ThiD) to generate HMP-PP. In nearly all cases, this enzyme is bifunctional and can also salvage free HMP, producing HMP-P, the monophosphate precursor of HMP-PP. Here we present high-resolution crystal structures of an HMPK from Acinetobacter baumannii (AbHMPK), both unliganded and with pyridoxal 5-phosphate (PLP) noncovalently bound. Despite the similarity between HMPK and pyridoxal kinase enzymes, our kinetics analysis indicates that AbHMPK accepts HMP exclusively as a substrate and cannot turn over pyridoxal, pyridoxamine, or pyridoxine nor does it display phosphatase activity. PLP does, however, act as a weak inhibitor of AbHMPK with an IC50 of 768 µM. Surprisingly, unlike other HMPKs, AbHMPK catalyzes only the phosphorylation of HMP and does not generate the diphosphate HMP-PP. This suggests that an additional kinase is present in A. baumannii, or an alternative mechanism is in operation to complete the biosynthesis of thiamin.

Rebamipide and Derivatives are Potent, Selective Inhibitors of Histidine Phosphatase Activity of the Suppressor of T Cell Receptor Signaling Proteins.

The suppressor of T cell receptor signaling (Sts) proteins are negative regulators of immune signaling. Genetic inactivation of these proteins leads to significant resistance to infection. From a 590,000 compound high-throughput screen, we identified the 2-(1H)-quinolinone derivative, rebamipide, as a putative inhibitor of Sts phosphatase activity. Rebamipide, and a small library of derivatives, are competitive, selective inhibitors of Sts-1 with IC50 values from low to submicromolar. SAR analysis indicates that the quinolinone, the acid, and the amide moieties are all essential for activity. A crystal structure confirmed the SAR and reveals key interactions between this class of compound and the protein. Although rebamipide has poor cell permeability, we demonstrated that a liposomal preparation can inactivate the phosphatase activity of Sts-1 in cells. These studies demonstrate that Sts-1 enzyme activity can be pharmacologically inactivated and provide foundational tools and insights for the development of immune-enhancing therapies that target the Sts proteins.

Ligand bound structure of a 6-hydroxynicotinic acid 3-monooxygenase provides mechanistic insights.

6-Hydroxynicotinic acid 3-monooxygenase (NicC) is a bacterial enzyme involved in the degradation of nicotinic acid. This enzyme is a Class A flavin-dependent monooxygenase that catalyzes a unique decarboxylative hydroxylation. The unliganded structure of this enzyme has previously been reported and studied using steady- and transient-state kinetics to support a comprehensive kinetic mechanism. Here we report the crystal structure of the H47Q NicC variant in both a ligand-bound (solved to 2.17 Å resolution) and unliganded (1.51 Å resolution) form. Interestingly, in the liganded form, H47Q NicC is bound to 2-mercaptopyridine (2-MP), a contaminant present in the commercial stock of 6-mercaptopyridine-3-carboxylic acid(6-MNA), a substrate analogue. 2-MP binds weakly to H47Q NicC and is not a substrate for the enzyme. Based on kinetic and thermodynamic characterization, we have fortuitously captured a catalytically inactive H47Q NicC•2-MP complex in our crystal structure. This complex reveals interesting mechanistic details about the reaction catalyzed by 6-hydroxynicotinic acid 3-monooxygenase.

The Annual Economic Burden of Respiratory Syncytial Virus in Adults in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Current estimates of the economic burden of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) are needed for policymakers to evaluate adult RSV vaccination strategies. METHODS: A cost-of-illness model was developed to estimate the annual societal burden of RSV in US adults aged ≥60 years. Additional analyses were conducted to estimate the burden of hospitalized RSV in all adults aged 50-59 years and in adults aged 18-49 years with potential RSV risk factors. RESULTS: Among US adults aged ≥60 years, the model estimated 4.0 million annual RSV cases (95% UI, 2.7-5.6 million) and an annual economic burden of $6.6 billion (95% UI, $3.1-$12.9 billion; direct medical costs, $2.9 billion; indirect costs, $3.7 billion). The 4% of RSV cases that were hospitalized contributed to 94% of direct medical costs. Additional analyses estimated $422 million in annual hospitalization costs among all adults aged 50-59 years. Among adults aged 18-49 years with RSV risk factors, annual per capita burden was highest among people with congestive heart failure at $51,100 per 1000 people. DISCUSSION: The economic burden of RSV is substantial among adults aged ≥50 years, and among adults aged 18-49 years with RSV risk factors, underscoring the need for preventive interventions for these populations.

Cost-Effectiveness of Recombinant Zoster Vaccine for the Prevention of Herpes Zoster in Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplant Recipients and Other Immunocompromised Adults in the United States.

INTRODUCTION: Immunocompromised (IC) adults are at increased risk of developing herpes zoster (HZ) and HZ-related complications due to therapy or underlying disease. This study evaluated the cost effectiveness of recombinant zoster vaccine (RZV) versus no vaccine for the prevention of HZ in hematopoietic stem cell transplant (HSCT) recipients and other IC adults aged ≥ 18 years in the United States (US). METHODS: A static Markov model simulated cohorts of IC individuals using a 1-year cycle length and 30-year time horizon to estimate the cost effectiveness of RZV. Inputs were sourced from clinical trial results and publicly available sources/literature. Modeled populations included US adult HSCT recipients (base case), patients with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), patients with breast cancer, patients with Hodgkin's lymphoma, and renal transplant recipients. The model reported societal costs, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). Sensitivity and threshold analyses were conducted. RESULTS: In the base case of 19,671 US adult HSCT recipients, RZV resulted in total societal cost savings of US$0.1 million and 109 incremental QALYs versus no vaccine. RZV was a 'dominant strategy' versus no vaccine because vaccination resulted in cost savings with QALY gains. RZV was also cost saving in renal transplant recipients, and cost effective at a willingness-to-pay threshold of US$100,000 per QALY gained in patients with HIV, breast cancer, and Hodgkin's lymphoma, with ICERs of US$33,268, US$67,682, and US$95,972 per QALY gained, respectively, versus no vaccine. CONCLUSIONS: Model results show RZV is potentially cost saving for the prevention of HZ in US adult HSCT recipients and US adults with selected immunocompromising conditions, and cost effective for others, supporting the use of RZV to prevent HZ and HZ-related complications in IC adults.

Mechanism of the Multistep Catalytic Cycle of 6-Hydroxynicotinate 3-Monooxygenase Revealed by Global Kinetic Analysis.

The class A flavoenzyme 6-hydroxynicotinate 3-monooxygenase (NicC) catalyzes a rare decarboxylative hydroxylation reaction in the degradation of nicotinate by aerobic bacteria. While the structure and critical residues involved in catalysis have been reported, the mechanism of this multistep enzyme has yet to be determined. A kinetic understanding of the NicC mechanism would enable comparison to other phenolic hydroxylases and illuminate its bioengineering potential for remediation of N-heterocyclic aromatic compounds. Toward these goals, transient state kinetic analyses by stopped-flow spectrophotometry were utilized to follow rapid changes in flavoenzyme absorbance spectra during all three stages of NicC catalysis: (1) 6-HNA binding; (2) NADH binding and FAD reduction; and (3) O2 binding with C4a-adduct formation, substrate hydroxylation, and FAD regeneration. Global kinetic simulations by numeric integration were used to supplement analytical fitting of time-resolved data and establish a kinetic mechanism. Results indicate that 6-HNA binding is a two-step process that substantially increases the affinity of NicC for NADH and enables the formation of a charge-transfer-complex intermediate to enhance the rate of flavin reduction. Singular value decomposition of the time-resolved spectra during the reaction of the substrate-bound, reduced enzyme with dioxygen provides evidence for the involvement of C4a-hydroperoxy-flavin and C4a-hydroxy-flavin intermediates in NicC catalysis. Global analysis of the full kinetic mechanism suggests that steady-state catalytic turnover is partially limited by substrate hydroxylation and C4a-hydroxy-flavin dehydration to regenerate the flavoenzyme. Insights gleaned from the kinetic model and determined microscopic rate constants provide a fundamental basis for understanding NicC's substrate specificity and reactivity.

Public health impact of recombinant zoster vaccine for prevention of herpes zoster in US adults immunocompromised due to cancer.

Individuals who are immunocompromised (IC) due to therapy or underlying disease are at increased risk of herpes zoster (HZ). This study evaluates the public health impact of recombinant zoster vaccine (RZV) relative to no HZ vaccination for the prevention of HZ among adults aged ≥18 years diagnosed with selected cancers in the United States (US). A static Markov model was used to simulate three cohorts of individuals who are IC with cancer (time horizon of 30 years; one-year cycle length): hematopoietic stem cell transplant (HSCT) recipients, patients with breast cancer (BC; a solid tumor example), and patients with Hodgkin's lymphoma (HL; a hematological malignancy example). Cohort sizes reflect the estimated annual incidence of each condition in the US population (19,671 HSCT recipients, 279,100 patients with BC, and 8,480 patients with HL). Vaccination with RZV resulted in 2,297; 38,068; and 848 fewer HZ cases for HSCT recipients, patients with BC, and patients with HL, respectively (each versus no vaccine). Vaccination with RZV also resulted in 422; 3,184; and 93 fewer postherpetic neuralgia cases for HSCT, BC, and HL, respectively. Analyses estimated the quality-adjusted life years gained to be 109, 506, and 17 for HSCT, BC, and HL, respectively. To prevent one HZ case, the number needed to vaccinate was 9, 8, and 10, for HSCT, BC, and HL, respectively. These results suggest RZV vaccination may be an effective option to significantly reduce HZ disease burden among patients diagnosed with selected cancers in the US.

Shingles cases can be prevented by recombinant zoster vaccine (RZV). People who have a weakened immune system (immunocompromised) due to disease or therapy are more likely to develop shingles. For example, shingles occurs in nearly a quarter of patients receiving immunosuppressive treatment for blood cancers. To estimate the public health impact of vaccination against shingles in people who are immunocompromised due to cancer in the United States (US), we used a model to simulate groups with selected types of cancer. The results indicate vaccination with RZV can significantly reduce shingles cases and related complications among these groups in the US.

Estimating the cost of university-based outbreaks of serogroup B meningococcal disease with different pre-matriculation vaccination policies in the United States.

Objective: We developed an Excel-based cost calculator to assess the economic burden of university-based Neisseria meningitidis serogroup B (MenB) outbreaks. Participants: Hypothetical university with 6,354 students. Methods: Total societal costs of outbreak were estimated for three MenB pre-matriculation immunization policies-vaccination required, vaccination recommended, and no vaccine policy-under three different cost assumptions (low/mid-range/high cost). Results: Mid-range cost estimates of an outbreak under "no policy" were $2.60 and $2.70 million (of which 35% were incurred by the university) if targeting all undergraduates for mass vaccination with a two-/three-dose vaccine, respectively. The "required" and "recommended" policies lowered the burden to $2.17-$2.18 million and $2.34-$2.39 million, respectively. For a larger university with 40,000 students, costs were almost $9 million for a two-dose vaccine with "no policy" in place. Conclusions: The economic burden of a university MenB outbreak is substantial, but could be mitigated by a pre-matriculation MenB vaccination requirement or recommendation.

Synthesis and crystallographic characterization of 6-hydroxy-1,2-dihydropyridin-2-one.

The title compound, C5H5NO2, is a hy-droxy-lated pyridine ring that has been studied for its involvement in microbial degradation of nicotinic acid. Here we describe its synthesis as a formic acid salt, rather than the standard hydro-chloride salt that is commercially available, and its spectroscopic and crystallographic characterization.

Optimizing HIV Prevention Efforts to Achieve EHE Incidence Targets.

BACKGROUND: A goal of the US Department of Health and Human Services' Ending the HIV Epidemic (EHE) in the United States initiative is to reduce the annual number of incident HIV infections in the United States by 75% within 5 years and by 90% within 10 years. We developed a resource allocation analysis to understand how these goals might be met. METHODS: We estimated the current annual societal funding [$2.8 billion (B)/yr] for 14 interventions to prevent HIV and facilitate treatment of infected persons. These interventions included HIV testing for different transmission groups, HIV care continuum interventions, pre-exposure prophylaxis, and syringe services programs. We developed scenarios optimizing or reallocating this funding to minimize new infections, and we analyzed the impact of additional EHE funding over the period 2021-2030. RESULTS: With constant current annual societal funding of $2.8 B/yr for 10 years starting in 2021, we estimated the annual incidence of 36,000 new cases in 2030. When we added annual EHE funding of $500 million (M)/yr for 2021-2022, $1.5 B/yr for 2023-2025, and $2.5 B/yr for 2026-2030, the annual incidence of infections decreased to 7600 cases (no optimization), 2900 cases (optimization beginning in 2026), and 2200 cases (optimization beginning in 2023) in 2030. CONCLUSIONS: Even without optimization, significant increases in resources could lead to an 80% decrease in the annual HIV incidence in 10 years. However, to reach both EHE targets, optimization of prevention funding early in the EHE period is necessary. Implementing these efficient allocations would require flexibility of funding across agencies, which might be difficult to achieve.

Estimating the HIV Effective Reproduction Number in the United States and Evaluating HIV Elimination Strategies.

CONTEXT: The reproduction number is a fundamental epidemiologic concept used to assess the potential spread of infectious diseases and whether they can be eliminated. OBJECTIVE: We estimated the 2017 United States HIV effective reproduction number, Re, the average number of secondary infections from an infected person in a partially infected population. We analyzed the potential effects on Re of interventions aimed at improving patient flow rates along different stages of the HIV care continuum. We also examined these effects by individual transmission groups. DESIGN: We used the HIV Optimization and Prevention Economics (HOPE) model, a compartmental model of disease progression and transmission, and the next-generation matrix method to estimate Re. We then projected the impact of changes in HIV continuum-of-care interventions on the continuum-of-care flow rates and the estimated Re in 2020. SETTING: United States. PARTICIPANTS: The HOPE model simulated the sexually active US population and persons who inject drugs, aged 13 to 64 years, which was stratified into 195 subpopulations by transmission group, sex, race/ethnicity, age, male circumcision status, and HIV risk level. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The estimated value of Re in 2017 and changes in Re in 2020 from interventions affecting the continuum-of-care flow rates. RESULTS: Our estimated HIV Re in 2017 was 0.92 [0.82, 0.94] (base case [min, max across calibration sets]). Among the interventions considered, the most effective way to reduce Re substantially below 1.0 in 2020 was to maintain viral suppression among those receiving HIV treatment. The greatest impact on Re resulted from changing the flow rates for men who have sex with men (MSM). CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that current prevention and treatment efforts may not be sufficient to move the country toward HIV elimination. Reducing Re to substantially below 1.0 may be achieved by an ongoing focus on early diagnosis, linkage to care, and sustained viral suppression especially for MSM.

Optimal Allocation of Societal HIV Prevention Resources to Reduce HIV Incidence in the United States.

Objectives. To optimize combined public and private spending on HIV prevention to achieve maximum reductions in incidence.Methods. We used a national HIV model to estimate new infections from 2018 to 2027 in the United States. We estimated current spending on HIV screening, interventions that move persons with diagnosed HIV along the HIV care continuum, pre-exposure prophylaxis, and syringe services programs. We compared the current funding allocation with 2 optimal scenarios: (1) a limited-reach scenario with expanded efforts to serve eligible persons and (2) an ideal, unlimited-reach scenario in which all eligible persons could be served.Results. A continuation of the current allocation projects 331 000 new HIV cases over the next 10 years. The limited-reach scenario reduces that number by 69%, and the unlimited reach scenario by 94%. The most efficient funding allocations resulted in prompt diagnosis and sustained viral suppression through improved screening of high-risk persons and treatment adherence support for those infected.Conclusions. Optimal allocations of public and private funds for HIV prevention can achieve substantial reductions in new infections. Achieving reductions of more than 90% under current funding will require that virtually all infected receive sustained treatment.

Menaquinone Biosynthesis: Biochemical and Structural Studies of Chorismate Dehydratase.

Menaquinone (MK, vitamin K) is a lipid-soluble quinone that participates in the bacterial electron transport chain. In mammalian cells, vitamin K functions as an essential vitamin for the activation of several proteins involved in blood clotting and bone metabolism. MqnA is the first enzyme on the futalosine-dependent pathway to menaquinone and catalyzes the aromatization of chorismate by water loss. Here we report biochemical and structural studies of MqnA. These studies suggest that the dehydration reaction proceeds by a variant of the E1cb mechanism in which deprotonation is slower than water loss and that the enol carboxylate of the substrate is serving as the base.

Mechanism of 6-Hydroxynicotinate 3-Monooxygenase, a Flavin-Dependent Decarboxylative Hydroxylase Involved in Bacterial Nicotinic Acid Degradation.

6-Hydroxynicotinate 3-monooxygenase (NicC) is a Group A FAD-dependent monooxygenase that catalyzes the decarboxylative hydroxylation of 6-hydroxynicotinic acid (6-HNA) to 2,5-dihydroxypyridine (2,5-DHP) with concomitant oxidation of NADH in nicotinic acid degradation by aerobic bacteria. Two mechanisms for the decarboxylative hydroxylation half-reaction have been proposed [Hicks, K., et al. (2016) Biochemistry 55, 3432-3446]. Results with Bordetella bronchiseptica RB50 NicC here show that a homocyclic analogue of 6-HNA, 4-hydroxybenzoic acid (4-HBA), is decarboxylated and hydroxylated by NicC with a 420-fold lower catalytic efficiency than is 6-HNA. The 13( V/ K), measured with wild-type NicC by isotope ratio mass spectrometry following the natural abundance of 13C in the CO2 product, is inverse for both 6-HNA (0.9989 ± 0.0002) and 4-HBA (0.9942 ± 0.0004) and becomes negligible (0.9999 ± 0.0004) for 5-chloro-6-HNA, an analogue that is 10-fold more catalytically efficient than 6-HNA. Covalently bound 6-HNA complexes of NicC are not observed by mass spectrometry. Comparative steady-state kinetic and Kd6HNA analyses of active site NicC variants (C202A, H211A, H302A, H47E, Y215F, and Y225F) identify Tyr215 and His47 as critical determinants both of 6-HNA binding ( KdY215F/ KdWT > 240; KdH47E/ KdWT > 350) and in coupling rates of 2,5-DHP and NAD+ product formation ([2,5-DHP]/[NAD+] = 1.00 (WT), 0.005 (Y215F), and 0.07 (H47E)]. Results of these functional analyses are in accord with an electrophilic aromatic substitution reaction mechanism in which His47-Tyr215 may serve as the general base to catalyze substrate hydroxylation and refine the structural model for substrate binding by NicC.

Crystal structure of E. coli PRPP synthetase.

BACKGROUND: Ribose-phosphate pyrophosphokinase (EC 2.7.6.1) is an enzyme that catalyzes the ATP-dependent conversion of ribose-5-phosphate to phosphoribosyl pyrophosphate. The reaction product is a key precursor for the biosynthesis of purine and pyrimidine nucleotides. RESULTS: We report the 2.2 Å crystal structure of the E. coli ribose-phosphate pyrophosphobinase (EcKPRS). The protein has two type I phosphoribosyltransferase folds, related by 2-fold pseudosymmetry. The propeller-shaped homohexameric structure of KPRS is composed of a trimer of dimers, with the C-terminal domains forming the dimeric blades of the propeller and the N-terminal domains forming the hexameric core. The key, conserved active site residues are well-defined in the structure and positioned appropriately to bind substrates, adenosine monophosphate and ribose-5-phosphate. The allosteric site is also relatively well conserved but, in the EcKPRS structure, several residues from a flexible loop occupy the site where the allosteric modulator, adenosine diphosphate, is predicted to bind. The presence of the loop in the allosteric site may be an additional level of regulation, whereby low affinity molecules are precluded from binding. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, this study details key structural features of an enzyme that catalyzes a critical step in nucleotide metabolism. This work provides a framework for future studies of this important protein and, as nucleotides are critical for viability, may serve as a foundation for the development of novel anti-bacterial drugs.

Cost-effectiveness of an adjuvanted recombinant zoster vaccine in older adults in the United States who have been previously vaccinated with zoster vaccine live.

Zoster Vaccine Live (ZVL) is marketed in the US since 2008, and a non-live adjuvanted Recombinant Zoster Vaccine (RZV) was approved in 2017. Literature suggests that waning of ZVL efficacy may necessitate additional vaccination. The Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices recommended vaccination with RZV in immunocompetent adults aged 50+ years old, including those previously vaccinated with ZVL. The objective of this study was to determine the cost-effectiveness of vaccinating US adults aged 60+ years old, previously vaccinated with ZVL. The ZOster ecoNomic Analysis (ZONA) model, a deterministic Markov model, was adapted to follow a hypothetical 1 million(M)-person cohort of US adults previously vaccinated with ZVL. Model inputs included demographics, epidemiology, vaccine characteristics, utilities and costs. Costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) were presented over the lifetimes of the cohort from the year of additional vaccination, discounted 3% annually. The model estimated that, vaccination with RZV 5 years after previous vaccination with ZVL, would reduce disease burden compared with no additional vaccination, resulting in a gain of 1,633 QALYs at a total societal cost of $96M (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio: $58,793/QALY saved). Compared with revaccinating with ZVL, vaccination with RZV would result in a gain of 1,187 QALYs and societal cost savings of almost $84M. Sensitivity, scenario, and threshold analyses demonstrated robustness of these findings. Vaccination with RZV is predicted to be cost-effective relative to no additional vaccination, assuming a threshold of $100,000/QALY, and cost-saving relative to ZVL revaccination of US adults aged 60+ years old who have been previously vaccinated with ZVL.

Impact of Improved HIV Care and Treatment on PrEP Effectiveness in the United States, 2016-2020.

BACKGROUND: The effect of improving diagnosis, care, and treatment of persons living with HIV (PLWH) on pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) effectiveness in the United States has not been well established. METHODS: We used a dynamic, compartmental model that simulates the sexually active US population. We investigated the change in cumulative HIV incidence from 2016 to 2020 for 3 HIV care-continuum levels and the marginal benefit of PrEP compared with each. We also explored the marginal benefit of PrEP for individual risk groups, and as PrEP adherence, coverage and dropout rates varied. RESULTS: Delivering PrEP in 2016 to persons at high risk of acquiring HIV resulted in an 18.1% reduction in new HIV infections from 2016 to 2020 under current care-continuum levels. Achieving HIV national goals of 90% of PLWH with diagnosed infection, 85% of newly diagnosed PLWH linked to care at diagnosis, and 80% of diagnosed PLWH virally suppressed reduced cumulative incidence by 34.4%. Delivery of PrEP in addition to this scenario resulted in a marginal benefit of 11.1% additional infections prevented. When national goals were reached, PrEP prevented an additional 15.2% cases among men who have sex with men, 3.9% among heterosexuals, and 3.8% among persons who inject drugs. CONCLUSIONS: The marginal benefit of PrEP was larger when current HIV-care-continuum percentages were maintained but continued to be substantial even when national care goals were met. The high-risk men who have sex with men population was the chief beneficiary of PrEP.

Effects of Reaching National Goals on HIV Incidence, by Race and Ethnicity, in the United States.

CONTEXT: Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) incidence and prevalence in the United States are characterized by significant disparities by race/ethnicity. National HIV care goals, such as boosting to 90% the proportion of persons whose HIV is diagnosed and increasing to 80% the proportion of persons living with diagnosed HIV who are virally suppressed, will likely reduce HIV incidence, but their effects on HIV-related disparities are uncertain. OBJECTIVE: We sought to understand by race/ethnicity how current HIV care varies, the level of effort required to achieve national HIV care goals, and the effects of reaching those goals on HIV incidence and disparities. DESIGN: Using a dynamic model of HIV transmission, we identified 2016 progress along the HIV care continuum among blacks, Hispanics, and whites/others compared with national 2020 goals. We examined disparities over time. SETTING: United States. PARTICIPANTS: Beginning in 2006, our dynamic compartmental model simulated the sexually active US population 13 to 64 years of age, which was stratified into 195 subpopulations by transmission group, sex, race/ethnicity, age, male circumcision status, and HIV risk level. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: We compared HIV cumulative incidence from 2016 to 2020 when goals were reached compared with base case assumptions about progression along the HIV care continuum. RESULTS: The 2016 proportion of persons with diagnosed HIV who were on treatment and virally suppressed was 50% among blacks, 56% among Hispanics, and 61% among whites/others, compared with a national goal of 80%. When diagnosis, linkage, and viral suppression goals were reached in 2020, cumulative HIV incidence fell by 32% (uncertainty range: 18%-37%) for blacks, 25% (22%-31%) for Hispanics, and 25% (21%-28%) for whites/others. Disparity measures changed little. CONCLUSIONS: Achieving national HIV care goals will require different levels of effort by race/ethnicity but likely will result in substantial declines in cumulative HIV incidence. HIV-related disparities in incidence and prevalence may be difficult to resolve.