Newly and Previously Eligible Medicaid Enrollees Differ, but Not in Health Care Expenditures.

In 2014, the Affordable Care Act (ACA) expanded the role of Medicaid by encouraging states to increase eligibility for lower-income adults. As of 2024, 10 states had not adopted the expanded eligibility provisions of the ACA, possibly due to concerns about the state's share of spending. Using the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS), we documented how health care utilization, expenditures, and the overall health status of newly eligible enrollees compare with enrollees who would have been eligible under their states' rules before the ACA. Our estimates suggest that, during 2014-16, newly eligible Medicaid enrollees had worse health and greater utilization and expenditures than previously eligible enrollees. However, during 2017-19, newly and previously eligible enrollees had comparable per capita health expenditures across six types of health spending. We find some evidence that changes in Medicaid enrollment composition muted observed differences between eligibility groups.

Horizontal and vertical equity and public subsidies for private health insurance in the U.S.

The United States offers two markedly different subsidy structures for private health insurance. When covered through employer-based plans, employees and their dependents benefit from the exclusion from taxable income of the premiums. Individuals without access to employer coverage may obtain subsidies for Marketplace coverage. This paper seeks to understand how the public subsidies embedded in the privately financed portion of the U.S. healthcare system impact the payments families are required to make under both ESI and Marketplace coverage, and the implications for finance equity. Using the Household Component of the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS-HC) and Marketplace premium data, we assess horizontal and vertical equity by calculating public subsidies for and expected family spending under each coverage source and using Lorenz curves and Gini and concentration coefficients. Our study pooled the 2018 and 2019 MEPS-HC to achieve a sample size of 10,593 observations. Our simulations showed a marked horizontal inequity for lower-income families with access to employer coverage who cannot obtain Marketplace subsidies. Relative to both the financing of employer coverage and earlier Marketplace tax credits, the more generous Marketplace premium subsidies, first made available in 2021 under the American Rescue Plan Act, substantially increased the vertical equity of Marketplace financing. While Marketplace subsidies have clearly improved equity within the United States, we conclude with a comparison to other OECD countries highlighting the persistence of inequities in the U.S. stemming from its noteworthy reliance on employer-based private health insurance.

Availability of off-marketplace plans with lower premiums for higher-income families.

OBJECTIVES: Families with incomes above 400% of the federal poverty level were ineligible for marketplace premium tax credits before 2021 and may again be after 2025. Current laws temporarily removed this income cap, but because credits cap out-of-pocket premiums for a reference plan as a share of income, some higher-income families still receive zero tax credits. We quantified (1) premium differences between on- and off-marketplace plans and (2) the association between these premium differences and state decisions to finance cost-sharing reductions (CSRs) for lower-income families. STUDY DESIGN: We created a comprehensive database of on- and off-marketplace plans in each county (including both federal and state-based marketplaces). METHODS: By county and metal level, we compared on- and off-marketplace (1) plan premiums in 2020 and (2) growth rates in the numbers of plans. We contrasted outcomes for states by how insurers were instructed to finance CSRs. RESULTS: In 2020, 89% of the US population lived in counties where some plans were offered exclusively off-marketplace. In these counties, for a 45-year-old choosing among silver plans in 2020 and who did not qualify for premium subsidies, premiums for the lowest-cost off-marketplace plans averaged 11.3% less than premiums for the lowest-cost on-marketplace plans. In contrast, for bronze and gold plans, the lowest-cost off-marketplace plans were, on average, more expensive. Silver plan premiums were 6.1% higher off-marketplace than on-marketplace in states that loaded CSRs on all silver plans, and 13.5% lower in states that loaded CSRs only on on-marketplace silver plans. CONCLUSIONS: Higher-income individuals and families may consider purchasing Affordable Care Act-compliant silver plans off-marketplace and thereby reduce their premiums. State and federal policy makers should consider the impact of their decisions on the choice between on- and off-marketplace plans.

Effects of Medicaid expansion on insurance coverage and health services use among adults with disabilities newly eligible for Medicaid.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the effects of Affordable Care Act (ACA) Medicaid expansion on insurance and health services use for adults with disabilities who were newly eligible for Medicaid. DATA SOURCES: 2008-2018 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey data. STUDY DESIGN: We used the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (AHRQ) PUBSIM model to identify adults aged 26-64 years with disabilities who were newly Medicaid-eligible in expansion states or would have been eligible in non-expansion states had those states opted to expand. Outcomes included insurance coverage; access to care; receipt of primary care, outpatient specialty physician services, and preventive services; and out-of-pocket health care spending. To estimate the effects of Medicaid expansion, we used two-way fixed effects models and a triple differences framework to compare pre-post changes in each outcome in expansion and non-expansion states for adults with and without disabilities. EXTRACTION METHODS: We simulated Medicaid eligibility with the AHRQ PUBSIM model, which uses state-specific Medicaid rules and MEPS data on family relationships, state of residence, and income. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Among adults with disabilities who were newly eligible for Medicaid, Medicaid expansion was associated with significant increases in full-year Medicaid coverage (35.9 percentage points [pp], p < 0.001), receipt of primary care (15.5 pp, p < 0.01), and receipt of flu shots (19.2 pp, p < 0.01), and a significant decrease in out-of-pocket spending (-$457, p < 0.01). There were larger improvements for adults with disabilities compared to those without disabilities in full-year Medicaid coverage (11.0 pp, p < 0.01) and receipt of flu shots (18.0 pp, p < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Medicaid expansion was associated with improvements in full-year insurance coverage, receipt of primary and preventive care, and out-of-pocket spending for adults with disabilities who were newly eligible for Medicaid. For insurance coverage, preventive care, and some primary care measures, there were differentially larger improvements for adults with disabilities than for those without disabilities.

Tobacco Surcharges Associated With Reduced ACA Marketplace Enrollment.

The Affordable Care Act (ACA) allows insurers to charge tobacco users who have nongroup coverage up to 50 percent more than nonusers of tobacco. In this study we used 2014-19 administrative data on enrollees in the federally facilitated ACA Marketplace, HealthCare.gov, to examine the relationships among surcharge rates, total Marketplace enrollment, and enrollment by tobacco users. We found that the tobacco surcharge rate averaged approximately 14 percent and that it was associated with lower total enrollment as well as a reduced share of total enrollees who reported any tobacco use. Our analysis also found that tobacco surcharges have a significantly larger effect on tobacco users' share of enrollment in rural areas than in urban areas, which may in turn contribute to urban-rural health disparities. Given that tobacco surcharges may decrease Marketplace enrollment overall and shift the composition of enrollment away from tobacco users, our findings suggest that reducing tobacco surcharges may increase total Marketplace enrollment.

ACA Marketplaces Became Less Affordable Over Time For Many Middle-Class Families, Especially The Near-Elderly.

The Affordable Care Act provides tax credits for Marketplace insurance, but before 2021, families with incomes above four times the federal poverty level did not qualify for tax credits and could face substantial financial burdens when purchasing coverage. As a measure of affordability, we calculated potential Marketplace premiums as a percentage of family income among families with incomes of 401-600 percent of poverty. In 2015 half of this middle-class population would have paid at least 7.7 percent of their income for the lowest-cost bronze plan; in 2019 they would have paid at least 11.3 percent of their income. By 2019 half of the near-elderly ages 55-64 would have paid at least 18.9 percent of their income for the lowest-cost bronze plan in their area. The American Rescue Plan Act temporarily expanded tax credit eligibility for 2021 and 2022, but our results suggest that families with incomes of 401-600 percent of poverty will again face substantial financial burdens after the temporary subsidies expire.

Shielding of viruses such as SARS-Cov-2 from ultraviolet radiation in particles generated by sneezing or coughing: Numerical simulations of survival fractions.

SARS-CoV-2 and other microbes within aerosol particles can be partially shielded from UV radiation. The particles refract and absorb light, and thereby reduce the UV intensity at various locations within the particle. Previously, we demonstrated shielding in calculations of UV intensities within spherical approximations of SARS-CoV-2 virions within spherical particles approximating dried-to-equilibrium respiratory fluids. The purpose of this paper is to extend that work to survival fractions of virions (i.e., fractions of virions that can infect cells) within spherical particles approximating dried respiratory fluids, and to investigate the implications of these calculations for using UV light for disinfection. The particles may be on a surface or in air. Here, the survival fraction (S) of a set of individual virions illuminated with a UV fluence (F, in J/m2) is assumed described by S(kF) = exp(-kF), where k is the UV inactivation rate constant (m2/J). The average survival fraction (Sp) of the simulated virions in a group of particles is calculated using the energy absorbed by each virion in the particles. The results show that virions within particles of dried respiratory fluids can have larger Sp than do individual virions. For individual virions, and virions within 1-, 5-, and 9-µm particles illuminated (normal incidence) on a surface with 260-nm UV light, the Sp = 0.00005, 0.0155, 0.22, and 0.28, respectively, when kF = 10. The Sp decrease to <10-7, <10-7, 0.077, and 0.15, respectively, for kF = 100. Results also show that illuminating particles with UV beams from widely separated directions can strongly reduce the Sp. These results suggest that the size distributions and optical properties of the dried particles of virion-containing respiratory fluids are likely important to effectively designing and using UV germicidal irradiation systems for microbes in particles. The results suggest the use of reflective surfaces to increase the angles of illumination and decrease the Sp. The results suggest the need for measurements of the Sp of SARS-CoV-2 in particles having compositions and sizes relevant to the modes of disease transmission.

Viruses such as SARS-CoV-2 can be partially shielded from UV radiation when in particles generated by sneezing or coughing: Numerical simulations.

UV radiation can inactivate viruses such as SARS-CoV-2. However, designing effective UV germicidal irradiation (UVGI) systems can be difficult because the effects of dried respiratory droplets and other fomites on UV light intensities are poorly understood. Numerical modeling of UV intensities inside virus-containing particles on surfaces can increase understanding of these possible reductions in UV intensity. We model UV intensities within spherical approximations of virions randomly positioned within spherical particles. The model virions and dried particles have sizes and optical properties to approximate SARS-CoV-2 and dried particles formed from respiratory droplets, respectively. In 1-, 5- and 9-µm diameter particles on a surface, illuminated by 260-nm UV light from a direction perpendicular to the surface, 0%, 10% and 18% (respectively) of simulated virions are exposed to intensities less than 1/100th of intensities in individually exposed virions (i.e., they are partially shielded). Even for 302-nm light (simulating sunlight), where absorption is small, 0% and 11% of virions in 1- and 9-µm particles have exposures 1/100th those of individually exposed virions. Shielding is small to negligible in sub-micron particles. Results show that shielding of virions in a particle can be reduced by illuminating a particle either from multiple widely separated incident directions, or by illuminating a particle rotating in air for a time sufficient to rotate through enough orientations. Because highly UV-reflective paints and surfaces can increase the angular ranges of illumination and the intensities within particles, they appear likely to be useful for reducing shielding of virions embedded within particles.

The effects of Medicaid on access to care and adherence to recommended preventive services.

OBJECTIVE: To quantify the impact of Medicaid enrollment on access to care and adherence to recommended preventive services. DATA SOURCE: 2005-2015 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey Household Component. STUDY DESIGN: We examined several access measures and utilization of several preventive services within the past year and within the time frame recommended by the United States Preventive Services Task Force, if more than a year. We estimated local average treatment effects of Medicaid enrollment using a new, two-stage regression model developed by Nguimkeu, Denteh, and Tchernis. This model accounts for both endogenous and underreported Medicaid enrollment by using a partial observability bivariate probit regression as the first stage. We identify the model with an exogenous measure of Medicaid eligibility, the simulated Medicaid eligibility rate by state, year, and parents vs childless adults. A wide range of changes in Medicaid eligibility occurred during the time period studied. DATA COLLECTION/EXTRACTION METHODS: Sample of low-income, nonelderly adults not receiving disability benefits. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Medicaid enrollment decreased the probability of having unmet needs for medical care by 7.5 percentage points and the probability of experiencing delays getting prescription drugs by 7.7 percentage points. Medicaid enrollment increased the probability of having a usual source of care by 16.5 percentage points, the probability of having a routine checkup by 17.1 percentage points, and the probability of having a flu shot in past year by 12.6 percentage points. CONCLUSION: Medicaid enrollment increased access to care and use of some preventive services. Additional research is needed on impacts for subgroups, such as parents, childless adults, and the smaller and generally older populations for whom screening tests are recommended.

Patient-Centered Medical Homes and Pediatric Preventive Counseling.

OBJECTIVE: To measure pediatric preventive counseling at patient-centered medical homes (PCMHs) compared with practices that reported undertaking some or no quality-related activities. METHODS: We analyzed 4814 children and adolescents ages 0 to 17 who visited their usual sources of care in the nationally representative Medical Expenditure Panel Survey Medical Organizations Survey (MEPS-MOS), a household survey combined with a survey of household members' usual sources of care. We identified PCMHs using lists from certifying or accrediting organizations. For other practices in the MEPS-MOS, 2 quality-related activities were 1) reports to physicians about their clinical quality of care, and 2) electronic health record system reminders to physicians. Regressions controlled for practice, child, and family characteristics. RESULTS: Compared with other practices, PCMHs were generally associated with greater likelihood of receiving preventive counseling. Estimates varied with the quality-related activities of the comparison practices. Counseling against smoking in the home was 10.4 to 18.7 percentage points (both P < .01) more likely for PCMHs. More associations were statistically significant for PCMHs compared with practices that undertook 1 of 2 quality-related activities examined. Among children ages 2 to 5, compared with practices undertaking both quality-related activities, those with PCMHs were more likely to receive counseling on 3 of 5 topics. Among adolescents, compared with practices undertaking both quality-related activities, those with PCMHs were more likely to receive counseling on smoking, exercise, and eating healthy. CONCLUSIONS: PCMHs were associated with substantially greater receipt of pediatric preventive counseling. Evaluations of PCMHs need to account for the quality-related activities of comparison practices.

Net Spending On Retail Specialty Drugs Grew Rapidly, Especially For Private Insurance And Medicare Part D.

Specialty drugs are expensive, but spending on specialty drugs is difficult to measure because of proprietary rebate payments by manufacturers to insurers, pharmacy benefit managers, and state Medicaid agencies. Our study extends recent research that documented growing use of and spending on specialty drugs by incorporating manufacturer rebates for both public and private payers. Although specialty drugs make up a small portion of retail prescriptions filled, we found that they accounted for 37.7 percent of retail and mail-order prescription spending net of rebates in 2016-17. From 2010-11 to 2016-17, spending net of rebates tripled for Medicare Part D beneficiaries and more than doubled for people with private insurance. Medicaid spending net of rebates rose more slowly. These results can help inform decision makers as they strive to balance the costs and benefits of innovative drugs.

The effect of Medicaid expansion on prescriptions for breast cancer hormonal therapy medications.

OBJECTIVE: To quantify the effects of the Affordable Care Act Medicaid expansion on prescriptions for effective breast cancer hormonal therapies (tamoxifen and aromatase inhibitors) among Medicaid enrollees. DATA SOURCE/STUDY SETTING: Medicaid State Drug Utilization Database (SDUD) 2011-2018, comprising the universe of outpatient prescription medications covered under the Medicaid program. STUDY DESIGN: Differences-in-differences and event-study linear models compare population rates of tamoxifen and aromatase inhibitor (anastrozole, exemestane, and letrozole) use in expansion and nonexpansion states, controlling for population characteristics, state, and time. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Relative to nonexpansion states, Medicaid-financed hormonal therapy prescriptions increased by 27.2 per 100 000 nonelderly women in a state. This implies a 28.8 percent increase from the pre-expansion mean of 94.2 per 100 000 nonelderly women in expansion states. The event-study model reveals no evidence of differential pretrends in expansion and nonexpansion states and suggests use grew to 40 or more prescriptions per 100 000 nonelderly women 3-5 years postexpansion. CONCLUSIONS: Medicaid expansion may have had a meaningful impact on the ability of lower-income women to access effective hormonal therapies used to treat breast cancer.

The Dynamics Of Medicaid Enrollment, Employment, And Beneficiary Health Status.

Some policy makers are proposing Medicaid work or community engagement requirements. Using national data, we found that 13.9 percent of new, nonelderly adult Medicaid beneficiaries in 2015-16 had experienced a decline in health before enrollment, and a similar percentage had had jobs that ended before they enrolled. These findings highlight the need for careful design of work requirement policies.

Public insurance expansions and smoking cessation medications.

We study the effect of public insurance on smoking cessation medication prescriptions and financing. We leverage variation in insurance coverage generated by recent Affordable Care Act expansions to Medicaid. We estimate differences-in-differences models using administrative data on the universe of Medicaid-financed prescriptions sold in retail and online pharmacies 2011-2017. Our findings suggest that these expansions increased Medicaid-financed smoking cessation prescriptions by 34%. This increase reflects new medication use and a shift in payment from private insurers and self-paying patients to Medicaid. Adjusting our estimate for changes in financing implies that Medicaid expansion lead to a 24% increase in new medication use.

Effects of improvements in the CPS on the estimated prevalence of medical financial burdens.

OBJECTIVE: To measure the effects of questionnaire and imputation improvements in the Current Population Survey (CPS) on the estimated prevalence of high medical financial burden, that is, families spending more than 10 percent of income on medical care. DATA SOURCE: Matched longitudinal sample of CPS data for 2013 and 2014 calendar years. STUDY DESIGN: The CPS used a split-sample design to field traditional and redesigned questions about 2013 income, and old and new out-of-pocket premium imputation procedures, respectively. For both samples, CPS data for 2014 were from the redesigned income questions and the new imputation procedures. We quantify the effects of the combined survey improvements using differences-in-differences methods. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The improvements were not associated with changes in the estimate of burden in the full sample. Estimated prevalence increased by 2.6 percentage points among nonelderly adults with private insurance, decreased by 6.6 percentage points among nonelderly adults with public coverage, and decreased by 5.8 percentage points among elderly adults with Medicare and no private coverage. CONCLUSIONS: Improvements in the CPS changed the estimated prevalence of high medical financial burden among key subgroups. Researchers should use caution when tracking burden across the time-period in which these improvements were implemented.

Impact of Recent Medicaid Expansions on Office-Based Primary Care and Specialty Care among the Newly Eligible.

OBJECTIVE: To quantify the effect of Medicaid expansions on office-based care among the newly eligible. DATA SOURCE: 2008-2014 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey. STUDY DESIGN: The main sample is adults age 26-64 with incomes ≤138% of poverty who were not eligible for Medicaid prior to the Affordable Care Act. For this population, difference-in-differences linear probability models compare utilization between expansion and nonexpansion states and between 2008-2013 and 2014. EXTRACTION METHODS: Medicaid eligibility is simulated using data on family relationships, state of residence, and income. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Relative to comparable adults in nonexpansion states, newly eligible adults in expansion states were 9.1 percentage points more likely to have any office-based primary care physician visit in 2014, a 21.4% increase from 2013 (p-value = .004); 6.9 percentage points more likely to have a specialist visit, a 25.2% increase from 2013 (p-value = .036); and 5.1 percentage points more likely to have a visit with a nurse practitioner, nurse, or physician assistant, a 34.5% increase from 2013 (p-value = .016). CONCLUSIONS: State Medicaid expansions in 2014 were associated with greater likelihoods of visits with a variety of office-based providers. The estimated effects are larger among newly eligible compared with previous estimates on broader populations of low-income adults.

Trends over time in enrollment in non-group health insurance plans by tobacco use in the United States.

Healthcare.gov was created to facilitate the market for non-group insurance in states that did not establish their own marketplaces. In Healthcare.gov, families are asked to report their tobacco use status, and tobacco use surcharges of up to 50% may result. We tabulate enrollment information for 35 states offering insurance plans through Healthcare.gov in both 2014 and 2016. The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services provided counts of enrollees indicating tobacco use, by state, year, and risk level. The number of enrollees increased from 5.0 million in 2014 to 9.4 million in 2016. From 2014 to 2016, the number of enrollees rose 39% for tobacco users and 90% for non-tobacco users. Reported non-tobacco user enrollment rose faster than reported tobacco user enrollment in 30 out of 35 states. Reported tobacco users are enrolling in marketplace plans at a lower rate and are more likely to enroll in less generous plans. The decline in smoking as reported when purchasing insurance on Healthcare.gov surpasses declines in smoking observed in other data sources, which suggests that tobacco users may be decreasingly likely to report their tobacco use status accurately to avoid surcharges. Finally, we find no evidence of the surcharges being associated with lower enrollment among self-reported tobacco users, or in rates of smoking.

Growing Insurance Coverage Did Not Reduce Access To Care For The Continuously Insured.

Recent expansions in health insurance coverage have raised concerns about health care providers' capacity to supply additional services and how that may have affected access to care for people who were already insured. When we examined data for the period 2008-14 from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey, we found no consistent evidence that increases in the proportions of adults with insurance at the local-area level affected access to care for adults residing in the same areas who already had, and continued to have, insurance. This lack of an apparent relationship held true across eight measures of access, which included receipt of preventive care. It also held true among two adult subpopulations that may have been at greater risk for compromised access: people residing in health care professional shortage areas and Medicaid beneficiaries.

Adults Are More Likely To Become Eligible For Medicaid During Future Recessions If Their State Expanded Medicaid.

Eligibility for and enrollment in Medicaid can vary with economic recessions, recoveries, and changes in personal income. Understanding how Medicaid responds to such forces is important to budget analysts and policy makers tasked with forecasting Medicaid enrollment. We simulated eligibility for Medicaid for the period 2005-14 in two scenarios: assuming that each state's eligibility rules in 2009, the year before passage of the Affordable Care Act (ACA), were in place during the entire study period; and assuming that the ACA's expanded eligibility rules were in place during the entire period for all states. Then we correlated the results with unemployment rates as a measure of the economy. Each percentage-point increase in the unemployment rate was associated with an increase in the share of people eligible for Medicaid of 0.32 percentage point under the 2009 eligibility rules and 0.77 percentage point under the ACA rules. Our simulations showed that the ACA expansion increased Medicaid's responsiveness to changes in unemployment. For states that have not expanded Medicaid eligibility, our analysis demonstrates that increased responsiveness to periods of high unemployment is one benefit of expansion.

Psychological Distress and Enrollment in Medicaid.

Adults with poor mental health may want and need insurance to obtain care, but symptoms may impede enrollment into public health insurance. This study compares Medicaid enrollment responses to eligibility expansions by mental health status using a sample of non-elderly adults in both the 2000-2011 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey and the National Health Interview Survey (N = 27,494). The impact of Medicaid income eligibility thresholds (defined as the maximum family income level allowed in each state to be considered eligible for Medicaid) on Medicaid enrollment was estimated from linear regression models allowing for differential enrollment responses by mental and physical health status. Increasing income eligibility thresholds by 100% of the federal poverty level (FPL) was associated with a five-percentage-point increase in the probability of Medicaid enrollment in the non-disabled population under 300% FPL. The enrollment response to Medicaid expansions prior to the Affordable Care Act was stronger for adults symptomatic of psychological distress compared with adults without distress and compared to adults with chronic physical health problems.