Role of Polyunsaturated Fat in Modifying Cardiovascular Risk Associated With Family History of Cardiovascular Disease: Pooled De Novo Results From 15 Observational Studies.

BACKGROUND: It is unknown whether dietary intake of polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFA) modifies the cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk associated with a family history of CVD. We assessed interactions between biomarkers of low PUFA intake and a family history in relation to long-term CVD risk in a large consortium. METHODS: Blood and tissue PUFA data from 40 885 CVD-free adults were assessed. PUFA levels ≤25th percentile were considered to reflect low intake of linoleic, alpha-linolenic, and eicosapentaenoic/docosahexaenoic acids (EPA/DHA). Family history was defined as having ≥1 first-degree relative who experienced a CVD event. Relative risks with 95% CI of CVD were estimated using Cox regression and meta-analyzed. Interactions were assessed by analyzing product terms and calculating relative excess risk due to interaction. RESULTS: After multivariable adjustments, a significant interaction between low EPA/DHA and family history was observed (product term pooled RR, 1.09 [95% CI, 1.02-1.16]; P=0.01). The pooled relative risk of CVD associated with the combined exposure to low EPA/DHA, and family history was 1.41 (95% CI, 1.30-1.54), whereas it was 1.25 (95% CI, 1.16-1.33) for family history alone and 1.06 (95% CI, 0.98-1.14) for EPA/DHA alone, compared with those with neither exposure. The relative excess risk due to interaction results indicated no interactions. CONCLUSIONS: A significant interaction between biomarkers of low EPA/DHA intake, but not the other PUFA, and a family history was observed. This novel finding might suggest a need to emphasize the benefit of consuming oily fish for individuals with a family history of CVD.

Omega-3 Blood Levels and Stroke Risk: A Pooled and Harmonized Analysis of 183 291 Participants From 29 Prospective Studies.

BACKGROUND: The effect of marine omega-3 PUFAs on risk of stroke remains unclear. METHODS: We investigated the associations between circulating and tissue omega-3 PUFA levels and incident stroke (total, ischemic, and hemorrhagic) in 29 international prospective cohorts. Each site conducted a de novo individual-level analysis using a prespecified analytical protocol with defined exposures, covariates, analytical methods, and outcomes; the harmonized data from the studies were then centrally pooled. Multivariable-adjusted HRs and 95% CIs across omega-3 PUFA quintiles were computed for each stroke outcome. RESULTS: Among 183 291 study participants, there were 10 561 total strokes, 8220 ischemic strokes, and 1142 hemorrhagic strokes recorded over a median of 14.3 years follow-up. For eicosapentaenoic acid, comparing quintile 5 (Q5, highest) with quintile 1 (Q1, lowest), total stroke incidence was 17% lower (HR, 0.83 [CI, 0.76-0.91]; P<0.0001), and ischemic stroke was 18% lower (HR, 0.82 [CI, 0.74-0.91]; P<0.0001). For docosahexaenoic acid, comparing Q5 with Q1, there was a 12% lower incidence of total stroke (HR, 0.88 [CI, 0.81-0.96]; P=0.0001) and a 14% lower incidence of ischemic stroke (HR, 0.86 [CI, 0.78-0.95]; P=0.0001). Neither eicosapentaenoic acid nor docosahexaenoic acid was associated with a risk for hemorrhagic stroke. These associations were not modified by either baseline history of AF or prevalent CVD. CONCLUSIONS: Higher omega-3 PUFA levels are associated with lower risks of total and ischemic stroke but have no association with hemorrhagic stroke.

Inadequate care and excessive overprotection during childhood are associated with the presence of diabetes mellitus in adulthood in a general Japanese population: a cross-sectional analysis from the Hisayama Study.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate associations between parenting styles during childhood and diabetes in adulthood in a Japanese community. METHODS: In 2011, 710 community-dwelling Japanese residents aged ≥ 40 years were assessed for the presence of diabetes and for their perceptions of the parenting style of their parents, as measured using the "care" and "overprotection" scales of the Parental Bonding Instrument. Care and overprotection scores for each parent were dichotomized by age-specific median values. Diabetes mellitus was defined as a fasting plasma glucose level of ≥ 7.0 mmol/L, a 2-h post-loaded glucose level of ≥ 11.1 mmol/L, HbA1c ≥ 6.5%, and/or the current use of insulin or oral glucose-lowering agents. The odds ratios (ORs) for prevalent diabetes were calculated using a logistic regression model. RESULTS: The prevalence of diabetes was 14.9%. Subjects with a high paternal overprotection score had a significantly greater likelihood of prevalent diabetes than those with a low paternal overprotection score after adjusting for confounders (OR 1.71, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.06-2.77), while there was no significant association between paternal care and diabetes. Additionally, the multivariable-adjusted ORs for the presence of diabetes were significantly higher in subjects with a low maternal care score (OR 1.61, 95%CI 1.00-2.60) or in subjects with a high maternal overprotection score (OR 1.73, 95%CI 1.08-2.80). Moreover, the subjects with a low care score and high overprotection score for both their father and mother had a significantly higher multivariable-adjusted OR of diabetes than those with a high care score and low overprotection score for both parents (OR 2,12, 95%CI 1.14-3.95). CONCLUSIONS: This study suggests that inadequate care and excessive overprotection during childhood may contribute to the development of diabetes in adulthood.

n-6 fatty acid biomarkers and incident atrial fibrillation: an individual participant-level pooled analysis of 11 international prospective studies.

BACKGROUND: The presence of atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with an over 2-fold increased risk of stroke, heart failure, and cardiovascular mortality. Long chain n-6 PUFAs have been suggested to have a variety of beneficial biologic effects that may reduce AF development; however, prior studies evaluating this relationship are limited. OBJECTIVES: We prospectively evaluated the association between circulating levels of linoleic acid (LA) and arachidonic acid (AA) with incident AF. METHODS: We used participant-level data from a global consortium of 11 prospective cohort studies with measurements of LA and AA in adults (aged ≥18 y). Participating studies conducted de novo analyses using a prespecified analytical plan with harmonized definitions for exposures, outcomes, covariates, and subgroups. Associations were pooled using inverse-variance weighted meta-analysis. RESULTS: Among 41,335 participants, 6173 incident cases of AF were ascertained, with median follow-up time of 14 y. In multivariable analysis, per interquintile range (difference between the 10th and 90th percentiles for each fatty acid), circulating n-6 levels were not associated with incident AF. For LA, the hazard ratio per interquintile range was 0.96 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.89, 1.04), and for AA, 1.02 (95% CI: 0.94, 1.10), with little evidence of heterogeneity between cohorts. Associations were similarly nonsignificant across subgroups of age, race, and biomarker fraction. CONCLUSIONS: Biomarkers of n-6 fatty acids including LA and AA are not associated with incident AF. These findings suggest that overall effects of n-6 PUFAs on influencing AF development are neutral.

Omega-3 Fatty Acid Biomarkers and Incident Atrial Fibrillation.

BACKGROUND: The relationship between omega-3 fatty acids and atrial fibrillation (AF) remains controversial. OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to determine the prospective associations of blood or adipose tissue levels of eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA), docosapentaenoic acid (DPA), and docosahexaenoic acid (DHA) with incident AF. METHODS: We used participant-level data from a global consortium of 17 prospective cohort studies, each with baseline data on blood or adipose tissue omega-3 fatty acid levels and AF outcomes. Each participating study conducted a de novo analyses using a prespecified analytical plan with harmonized definitions for exposures, outcome, covariates, and subgroups. Associations were pooled using inverse-variance weighted meta-analysis. RESULTS: Among 54,799 participants from 17 cohorts, 7,720 incident cases of AF were ascertained after a median 13.3 years of follow-up. In multivariable analysis, EPA levels were not associated with incident AF, HR per interquintile range (ie, the difference between the 90th and 10th percentiles) was 1.00 (95% CI: 0.95-1.05). HRs for higher levels of DPA, DHA, and EPA+DHA, were 0.89 (95% CI: 0.83-0.95), 0.90 (95% CI: 0.85-0.96), and 0.93 (95% CI: 0.87-0.99), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: In vivo levels of omega-3 fatty acids including EPA, DPA, DHA, and EPA+DHA were not associated with increased risk of incident AF. Our data suggest the safety of habitual dietary intakes of omega-3 fatty acids with respect to AF risk. Coupled with the known benefits of these fatty acids in the prevention of adverse coronary events, our study suggests that current dietary guidelines recommending fish/omega-3 fatty acid consumption can be maintained.

Association of omega 3 polyunsaturated fatty acids with incident chronic kidney disease: pooled analysis of 19 cohorts.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the prospective associations of circulating levels of omega 3 polyunsaturated fatty acid (n-3 PUFA) biomarkers (including plant derived α linolenic acid and seafood derived eicosapentaenoic acid, docosapentaenoic acid, and docosahexaenoic acid) with incident chronic kidney disease (CKD). DESIGN: Pooled analysis. DATA SOURCES: A consortium of 19 studies from 12 countries identified up to May 2020. STUDY SELECTION: Prospective studies with measured n-3 PUFA biomarker data and incident CKD based on estimated glomerular filtration rate. DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS: Each participating cohort conducted de novo analysis with prespecified and consistent exposures, outcomes, covariates, and models. The results were pooled across cohorts using inverse variance weighted meta-analysis. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Primary outcome of incident CKD was defined as new onset estimated glomerular filtration rate <60 mL/min/1.73 m2. In a sensitivity analysis, incident CKD was defined as new onset estimated glomerular filtration rate <60 mL/min/1.73 m2 and <75% of baseline rate. RESULTS: 25 570 participants were included in the primary outcome analysis and 4944 (19.3%) developed incident CKD during follow-up (weighted median 11.3 years). In multivariable adjusted models, higher levels of total seafood n-3 PUFAs were associated with a lower incident CKD risk (relative risk per interquintile range 0.92, 95% confidence interval 0.86 to 0.98; P=0.009, I2=9.9%). In categorical analyses, participants with total seafood n-3 PUFA level in the highest fifth had 13% lower risk of incident CKD compared with those in the lowest fifth (0.87, 0.80 to 0.96; P=0.005, I2=0.0%). Plant derived α linolenic acid levels were not associated with incident CKD (1.00, 0.94 to 1.06; P=0.94, I2=5.8%). Similar results were obtained in the sensitivity analysis. The association appeared consistent across subgroups by age (≥60 v <60 years), estimated glomerular filtration rate (60-89 v ≥90 mL/min/1.73 m2), hypertension, diabetes, and coronary heart disease at baseline. CONCLUSIONS: Higher seafood derived n-3 PUFA levels were associated with lower risk of incident CKD, although this association was not found for plant derived n-3 PUFAs. These results support a favourable role for seafood derived n-3 PUFAs in preventing CKD.

Serum Mac-2 Binding Protein Glycosylation Isomer Concentrations Are Associated With Incidence of Type 2 Diabetes.

CONTEXT: Serum Mac-2 binding protein glycosylation isomer (M2BPGi) concentrations are known to be an indicator of chronic liver injury and fibrosis. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to investigate the association between serum M2BPGi concentrations and the development of type 2 diabetes in a Japanese community. METHODS: A total of 2143 community-dwelling Japanese individuals aged 40-79 years without diabetes at baseline were followed up for 7 years. Serum M2BPGi concentrations were divided into quintiles: Q1, ≤0.37 cutoff index (COI); Q2, 0.38-0.49 COI; Q3, 0.50-0.62 COI; Q4, 0.62-0.80 COI; and Q5, ≥0.81 COI. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate hazard ratios and 95% CIs for the development of type 2 diabetes. RESULTS: During the follow-up period, 219 individuals developed type 2 diabetes. The age- and sex-adjusted cumulative incidence of type 2 diabetes significantly increased with elevating serum M2BPGi levels (P for trend < .01). This association remained significant after adjustment for potential confounders (P for trend = .04). This significant association attenuated to a nonsignificant level after additionally adjusting for serum high-sensitivity C-reactive protein or homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance. CONCLUSION: The present study demonstrated that higher serum M2BPGi concentrations were significantly associated with higher risk of diabetes in a Japanese community. Moreover, inflammation and insulin resistance were suggested to contribute to the excess risk of diabetes in individuals with higher serum M2BPGi levels. These findings shed light on the importance of inflammation and insulin resistance when considering the pathogenesis of diabetes.

Secular trends in the prevalence, incidence, and progression of diabetic retinopathy: the Hisayama Study.

PURPOSE: To examine the secular trends in the prevalence, incidence, and progression rates of diabetic retinopathy (DR) in a Japanese community. METHODS: Community-dwelling Japanese residents aged ≥ 40 years with diabetes participated in comprehensive systemic and ophthalmological surveys, including an examination for DR, in 1998 (n = 220), 2007 (n = 511), 2012 (n = 515), and 2017 (n = 560). DR was assessed using colour fundus photographs after pupil dilation according to the modified Airlie House classification system. To compare the frequencies of newly developed or progressed DR between the studied decades, two eye cohorts were established (the 2000s cohort included 145 participants examined in 1998 and 2007; the 2010s cohort included 255 participants examined in 2007, 2012, and 2017). Trends in the prevalence, incidence, and progression rate of DR were tested by logistic regression analysis with a generalised estimating equation. RESULTS: The age-adjusted prevalence of DR among individuals with diabetes decreased significantly with time from 1998 to 2017 (27.4% in 1998, 22.8% in 2007, 12.8% in 2012, and 6.4% in 2017; p for trend < 0.001). During this period, the prevalence of DR was decreasing in every haemoglobin A1c category, but it remained constant in the high systolic blood pressure category. In addition, the rates of new-onset of DR were significantly lower in the 2010s compared to the 2000s (p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest that the prevalence and incidence of DR among diabetic people significantly decreased with time over the past two decades in a general Japanese population.

Association Between Diabetes and Gray Matter Atrophy Patterns in a General Older Japanese Population: The Hisayama Study.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the association between diabetes and gray matter atrophy patterns in a general older Japanese population. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: In 2012, a total of 1,189 community-dwelling Japanese aged ≥65 years underwent brain MRI scans. Regional gray matter volumes (GMV) and intracranial volume (ICV) were measured by applying voxel-based morphometry (VBM) methods. The associations of diabetes and related parameters with the regional GMV/ICV were examined using an ANCOVA. The regional gray matter atrophy patterns in the subjects with diabetes or elevated fasting plasma glucose (FPG) or 2-h postload glucose (2hPG) levels were investigated using VBM. RESULTS: Subjects with diabetes had significantly lower mean values of GMV/ICV in the frontal lobe, temporal lobe, insula, deep gray matter structures, and cerebellum than subjects without diabetes after adjusting for potential confounders. A longer duration of diabetes was also significantly associated with lower mean values of GMV/ICV in these brain regions. The multivariable-adjusted mean values of the temporal, insular, and deep GMV/ICV decreased significantly with elevating 2hPG levels, whereas higher FPG levels were not significantly associated with GMV/ICV of any brain regions. In the VBM analysis, diabetes was associated with gray matter atrophy in the bilateral superior temporal gyri, right middle temporal gyrus, left inferior temporal gyrus, right middle frontal gyrus, bilateral thalami, right caudate, and right cerebellum. CONCLUSIONS: The current study suggests that a longer duration of diabetes and elevated 2hPG levels are significant risk factors for gray matter atrophy in various brain regions.

Active commuting, commuting modes and the risk of diabetes: 14-year follow-up data from the Hisayama study.

AIMS/INTRODUCTION: We aimed to investigate the association of active commuting (cycling or walking to work), as well as the association of the individual commuting modes, with the risk of diabetes in a prospective cohort of community-dwelling adults in Japan. MATERIAL AND METHODS: A total of 1,270 residents aged 40-79 years were followed up for a median of 14 years. Active commuting was defined as either cycling or walking to work. A Cox proportional hazards model was used to examine the association of active commuting with the risk of diabetes. Associations for different forms of active commuting (cycling, walking and mixed modes of cycling or walking with non-active components) were also examined. RESULTS: During the follow-up period, 191 participants developed diabetes. Active commuting was associated with a lower risk of diabetes than non-active commuting after adjustment for potential confounders (hazard ratio [HR] 0.54, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.31-0.92). With regard to the commuting modes, the risk of diabetes was significantly lower in individuals who commuted by cycling alone (HR 0.46, 95% CI 0.22-0.98), and tended to be lower in individuals who commuted by walking alone (HR 0.14, 95% CI 0.02-1.02) compared with that in individuals with non-active commuting. Meanwhile, no significant associations were observed for the mixed mode of walking and non-active commuting (HR 1.69, 95% CI 0.77-3.71). CONCLUSIONS: Active commuting, particularly that consisting exclusively of cycling or walking, was associated with a reduced risk of diabetes. Our findings support a public health policy that promotes the choice of active commuting for the prevention of diabetes.

One-year clinical efficacy and safety of indigo naturalis for active ulcerative colitis: a real-world prospective study.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: Recent studies suggested a favorable effect of indigo naturalis (IN) in inducing remission for refractory ulcerative colitis (UC), however, the maintenance effect of IN for patients with UC remains unknown. Therefore, we conducted a prospective uncontrolled open-label study to analyze the efficacy and safety of IN for patients with UC. METHODS: Patients with moderate to severe active UC (clinical activity index [CAI] ≥ 8) took 2 g/day of IN for 52 weeks. CAI at weeks 0, 4, 8, and 52 and Mayo endoscopic subscore (MES) and Geboes score (GS) at weeks 0, 4, and 52 were assessed. Clinical remission (CAI ≤ 4), mucosal healing (MES ≤ 1), and histological healing (GS ≤ 1) rates at each assessment were evaluated. Overall adverse events (AEs) during study period were also evaluated. The impact of IN on mucosal microbial composition was assessed using 16S ribosomal RNA gene sequences. RESULTS: Thirty-three patients were enrolled. The rates of clinical remission at weeks 4, 8, and 52 were 67%, 76%, and 73%, respectively. The rates of mucosal healing at weeks 4 and 52 were 48% and 70%, respectively. AEs occurred in 17 patients (51.5%) during follow-up. Four patients (12.1%) showed severe AEs, among whom 3 manifested acute colitis. No significant alteration in the mucosal microbial composition was observed with IN treatment. CONCLUSIONS: One-year treatment of moderate to severe UC with IN was effective. IN might be a promising therapeutic option for maintaining remission in UC, although the relatively high rate of AEs should be considered.

Long-term association of vegetable and fruit intake with risk of dementia in Japanese older adults: the Hisayama study.

BACKGROUND: Several prospective Western studies have reported an inverse association of vegetable and fruit intake with dementia risk. However, there is limited epidemiologic evidence in Asians. This study investigated the association of intakes of vegetables, fruits, and their nutrients on the risk of incident dementia and its subtypes in a Japanese community. METHODS: A total of 1071 participants (452 men and 619 women) aged ≥60 years without dementia at baseline were prospectively followed up for 24 years. Intakes of vegetables, fruits, and nutrients were evaluated using a 70-item semiquantitative food frequency questionnaire at baseline and were categorized into quartiles separately by gender. The outcome measure was the development of dementia and its subtypes-namely, Alzheimer's disease (AD) and vascular dementia (VaD). The risk estimates of incident dementia were computed using a Cox proportional hazards model. RESULTS: During the long-term follow-up period, 464 subjects developed dementia, of whom 286 had AD and 144 had VaD. Higher vegetable intake was associated gradually with lower risk of developing dementia and AD (both P-trend < 0.05), but not VaD, after adjusting for confounders. Subjects allocated the highest quartile of vegetable intake had 27 and 31% lower risk of dementia and AD, respectively, than those with the lowest quartile. The risk of dementia decreased significantly with higher intakes of vitamin A, riboflavin, vitamin C, magnesium, calcium, and potassium (all P-trend < 0.05). Subjects with higher total dietary fiber intake tended to be at decreased risk for total dementia (P-trend = 0.07). Meanwhile, there were no significant associations between fruit intake and the risk of dementia and its subtypes. CONCLUSION: Higher intakes of vegetables and their constituent nutrients were associated with a lower risk of dementia in Japanese older adults. A diet rich in vegetables may be beneficial in reducing the dementia risk in Asians.

Long-Term Trends in The 5-Year Risk of Recurrent Stroke over A Half Century in A Japanese Community: The Hisayama Study.

AIM: Secular trends in the risk of recurrent stroke have been reported in several epidemiological studies worldwide, but this issue has not been investigated in general Japanese populations. We examined the trends in the 5-year risk of recurrent stroke over a half century using community-based prospective data in Japan. METHODS: We established 4 cohort studies in 1961, 1974, 1988, and 2002. To examine the risk of recurrent stroke, participants who developed stroke during a 10-year follow-up period in each cohort were followed-up for 5 years from the date of first onset. A total of 154 (first sub-cohort: 1961-1971), 144 (second sub-cohort: 1974-1984), 172 (third sub-cohort: 1988-1998), and 146 (fourth sub-cohort: 2002-2012) participants from each cohort were enrolled in the present study. The 5-year cumulative risk of recurrent stroke was compared among the sub-cohorts using the Kaplan-Meier method and the age- and sex-adjusted Cox proportional hazards model. RESULTS: The risks of recurrent stroke after any stroke and ischemic stroke decreased significantly from the first to the third sub-cohort, but they did not clearly change from the third to the fourth sub-cohort. The risk of recurrent stroke after hemorrhagic stroke decreased mainly from the first to the second sub-cohort and there was no apparent decrease from the second to the fourth sub-cohort. These trends were substantially unchanged after adjusting for age and sex. CONCLUSIONS: In the Japanese community, the risk of recurrent stroke decreased mainly from the 1960s to 1990s, but there was no apparent decrease in recent years.

Association of daily sleep duration with the incident dementia by serum soluble TREM2 in a community.

BACKGROUND: Little is known about the influence of serum level of soluble triggering receptor expressed on myeloid cells 2 (sTREM2), which is a soluble type of an innate immune receptor expressed on the microglia, on the association of the daily sleep duration with the risk of dementia. METHODS: A total of 1230 Japanese community-residents aged 60 and older without dementia were followed prospectively for 10 years (2002-2012). Serum sTREM2 levels were divided into two groups using the median value (334.8 pg/ml). Self-reported daily sleep duration was grouped into three categories of <5.0, 5.0-7.9, and ≥8.0 h. A Cox proportional hazards model was used to estimate the hazard ratios (HRs) and their 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of daily sleep duration on the risk of dementia according to serum sTREM2 levels. RESULTS: During the follow-up, 262 subjects developed dementia. In subjects with low serum sTREM2 levels, subjects with ≥8.0 h of daily sleep had a significantly greater risk of dementia (multivariable-adjusted HR 2.05 [95% CI 1.32-3.19]) than those with 5.0-7.9 h of daily sleep, but those with <5.0 h did not. In contrast, the risk of dementia increased significantly in subjects with both <5.0 (1.95 [1.03-3.68]) and ≥8.0 h of daily sleep (1.48 [1.06-2.07]) in the subjects with high serum sTREM2 levels. CONCLUSIONS: The influence of daily sleep duration on risk of dementia differed according to serum sTREM2 levels in the older Japanese population. Short daily sleep may be associated with greater risk of dementia only in subjects with a high serum sTREM2 level.

Changes in Body Weight and Concurrent Changes in Cardiovascular Risk Profiles in Community Residents in Japan: the Hisayama Study.

AIM: We investigated the influence of weight change on concurrent changes in predicted cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk and individual CVD risk factors over time. METHODS: A total of 2,140 community-dwellers aged 40-74 years participated in both 2002 and 2007 health examinations. Obesity was defined as body mass index ≥ 25 kg/m2. Weight trajectories were classified as: "stable obese" (obese at both examinations), "obese to nonobese" (obese in 2002 but nonobese in 2007), "nonobese to obese" (nonobese in 2002 but obese in 2007), or "stable nonobese" (nonobese at both examinations). We compared changes in the model-predicted risk for CVD and individual CVD risk factors across weight-change categories. RESULTS: The predicted risk for CVD increased during 5 years in all groups; the increment in the predicted risk for CVD was smallest in the obese to nonobese participants and steepest in the nonobese to obese subjects. Compared with the stable obese participants, the obese to nonobese participants had greater favorable changes in waist circumferences, blood pressure, fasting plasma glucose, serum high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, serum triglycerides, and liver enzymes. For all these parameters, opposite trends were observed when comparing the nonobese to obese participants with the stable nonobese group. CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrated the favorable association of losing weight in obese people and avoiding excessive weight gain in nonobese people with global risk of future CVD and individual CVD risk factors in a real-world setting. The findings could improve behavioral lifestyle interventions that provide information on the health consequences of weight change at health checkups.

Development and Validation of a Risk Prediction Model for Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease in Japanese Adults: The Hisayama Study.

AIM: To develop and validate a new risk prediction model for predicting the 10-year risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) in Japanese adults. METHODS: A total of 2,454 participants aged 40-84 years without a history of cardiovascular disease (CVD) were prospectively followed up for 24 years. An incident ASCVD event was defined as the first occurrence of coronary heart disease or atherothrombotic brain infarction. A Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to construct the prediction model. In addition, a simplified scoring system was translated from the developed prediction model. The model performance was evaluated using Harrell's C statistics, a calibration plot with the Greenwood-Nam-D'Agostino test, and a bootstrap validation procedure. RESULTS: During a median of a 24-year follow-up, 270 participants experienced the first ASCVD event. The predictors of the ASCVD events in the multivariable Cox model included age, sex, systolic blood pressure, diabetes, serum high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, serum low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, proteinuria, smoking habits, and regular exercise. The developed models exhibited good discrimination with negligible evidence of overfitting (Harrell's C statistics: 0.786 for the multivariable model and 0.789 for the simplified score) and good calibrations (the Greenwood-Nam-D'Agostino test: P=0.29 for the multivariable model, 0.52 for the simplified score). CONCLUSION: We constructed a risk prediction model for the development of ASCVD in Japanese adults. This prediction model exhibits great potential as a tool for predicting the risk of ASCVD in clinical practice by enabling the identification of specific risk factors for ASCVD in individual patients.

Pathologic Diabetic Nephropathy in Autopsied Diabetic Cases With Normoalbuminuria From a Japanese Community-Based Study.

INTRODUCTION: Albuminuria is a clinical hallmark of diabetic nephropathy (DN). Nevertheless, it is controversial whether pathologic DN lesions exist in individuals with diabetes with normoalbuminuria. We investigated the association between albuminuria levels and the frequency of DN lesions in autopsied diabetic cases from a Japanese community. METHODS: A total of 106 autopsied cases with diabetes mellitus (mean age = 76 years, 43.4% male) who died within 6 years after their last health examination were included in the study. Urinary albumin-creatinine ratio (UACR) levels were divided into the following 3 groups: <30.0, 30.0 to 299.9, and ≥300.0 mg/g. The kidney specimens were evaluated with light microscopy. Glomerular DN lesions were categorized into class 0 to I, IIa, IIb, and III glomerular DN lesions according to the criteria of the Renal Pathology Society. A Cochran-Armitage test was used to evaluate the association between the UACR levels and the presence of class IIa or higher glomerular DN lesions. RESULTS: The frequency of class IIa or higher glomerular DN lesions was 63.2% (IIa, 36.8%; IIb, 3.8%; and III, 22.6%) among overall cases. The frequencies increased significantly with higher UACR levels (P for trend = 0.02). The frequency of class IIa or higher glomerular DN lesions was 51.2%, even in individuals with UACR < 30 mg/g. CONCLUSION: This study revealed a positive association of the UACR levels with the presence of class IIa or higher glomerular DN lesions, which were also frequently found even in the normal range of UACR levels, among autopsied diabetic cases from a Japanese community.

Development of a dementia prediction model for primary care: The Hisayama Study.

INTRODUCTION: We aimed to develop a risk prediction model for incident dementia using predictors that are available in primary-care settings. METHODS: A total of 795 subjects aged 65 years or over were prospectively followed-up from 1988 to 2012. A Cox proportional-hazards regression was used to develop a multivariable prediction model. The developed model was translated into a simplified scoring system based on the beta-coefficient. The discrimination of the model was assessed by Harrell's C statistic, and the calibration was assessed by a calibration plot. RESULTS: During the follow-up period, 364 subjects developed dementia. In the multivariable model, age, female sex, low education, leanness, hypertension, diabetes, history of stroke, current smoking, and sedentariness were selected as predictors. The developed model and simplified score showed good discrimination and calibration. DISCUSSION: The developed risk prediction model is feasible and practically useful in primary-care settings to identify individuals at high risk for future dementia.