Prevalence of Potentially Clinically Significant Drug-Drug Interactions With Antiretrovirals Against HIV Over Three Decades: A Systematic Review of the Literature.

BACKGROUND: Contemporary first-line antiretrovirals have considerably reduced liability for clinically significant drug-drug interactions (DDI). This systematic review evaluates the prevalence of DDI among people receiving antiretrovirals across 3 decades. METHODS: We searched 3 databases for studies reporting the prevalence of clinically significant DDIs in patients receiving antiretrovirals published between January 1987 and July 2022. Clinically significant DDIs were graded by severity. All data extractions were undertaken by 2 independent reviewers, adjudicated by a third. RESULTS: Of 21,665 records returned, 13,474 were duplicates. After screening the remaining 13,596 abstracts against inclusion criteria, 122 articles were included for full-text analysis, from which a final list of 34 articles were included for data synthesis. The proportion of patients experiencing a clinically significant DDI did not change over time (P = 0.072). The most frequently reported classes of antiretrovirals involved in DDIs were protease inhibitors and non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors; of note, integrase use in the most recent studies was highly variable and ranged between 0% and 89%. CONCLUSIONS: The absolute risk of DDIs has not decreased over the period covered. This is likely related to continued use of older regimens and an ageing cohort of patients. A greater reduction in DDI prevalence can be anticipated with broader uptake of regimens containing unboosted integrase inhibitors or non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors.

72 weeks post-partum follow-up of dolutegravir versus efavirenz initiated in late pregnancy (DolPHIN-2): an open-label, randomised controlled study.

BACKGROUND: Late initiation of antiretrovirals in pregnancy is associated with increased risk of perinatal transmission and higher infant mortality. We report the final 72-week postpartum results for efficacy and safety of dolutegravir-based compared with efavirenz-based regimens in mothers and infants. METHODS: DolPHIN-2 was a randomised, open-label trial. Pregnant women in South Africa and Uganda aged at least 18 years, with untreated but confirmed HIV infection and an estimated gestation of at least 28 weeks, initiating antiretroviral therapy in third trimester were eligible for inclusion. Eligible women were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive either dolutegravir-based (50 mg dolutegravir, 300 mg tenofovir disoproxil fumarate, and either 200 mg emtricitabine in South Africa or 300 mg lamivudine in Uganda) or efavirenz-based (fixed dose combination 600 mg tenofovir disoproxil fumarate plus either emtricitabine in South Africa or lamivudine in Uganda) therapy. The primary efficacy outcome was the time to a viral load of less than 50 copies per mL measured at 6, 12, 24, 48, and 72 weeks postpartum with a Cox model adjusting for viral load and CD4 cell count. Safety endpoints were summarised by the number of women and infants with events. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03249181. FINDINGS: Between Jan 23 and Aug 15, 2018, 280 women were screened for inclusion, of whom 268 (96%) women were randomly assigned: 133 (50%) to the efavirenz group and 135 (50%) to the dolutegravir group. 250 (93%; 125 [50%] in the efavirenz group and 125 [50%] in the dolutegravir group) women were included in the intention-to-treat analysis of efficacy. Median time to viral load of less than 50 copies per mL was 4·1 weeks (IQR 4·0-5·1) in the dolutegravir group compared with 12·1 weeks (10·7-13·3) in the efavirenz group (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 1·93 [95% CI 1·5-2·5]). At 72 weeks postpartum, 116 (93%) mothers in the dolutegravir group and 114 (91%) in the efavirenz group had a viral load of less than 50 copies per mL. Of 57 (21%) mothers with a severe adverse event, three (2%) in the dolutegravir group and five (4%) in the efavirenz group were related to the drug (dolutegravir drug-related events were one woman each with suicidal ideation, suicide attempt, herpes zoster meningitis; efavirenz drug-related events were one woman each with suicide attempt and liver cirrhosis, and three people with drug-induced liver injury). Of 136 (56%) infants in whom severe adverse events were recorded, none were related to the study drugs. In addition to the three infant HIV infections detected at birth in the dolutegravir group that have been previously reported, an additional transmission in the efavirenz group occurred during breastfeeding despite optimal maternal viral suppression and serial negative infant tests in the first year of life. INTERPRETATION: Dolutegravir was safe and well tolerated, supporting updated WHO treatment recommendations in pregnant and breastfeeding women. Infant HIV transmissions can occur during breastfeeding despite persistently undetectable maternal viral load highlighting the need for continued infant testing. FUNDING: Unitaid.

Guillain-Barré syndrome following SARS-CoV-2 vaccination in the UK: a prospective surveillance study.

Objective: To investigate features of Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) following SARS-CoV-2 vaccines and evaluate for a causal link between the two. Methods: We captured cases of GBS after SARS-CoV-2 vaccination through a national, open-access, online surveillance system. For each case, the certainty of GBS was graded using the Brighton criteria, and the relationship to the vaccine was examined using modified WHO Causality Assessment criteria. We compared age distribution of cases with that of prepandemic GBS cases and clinical features with the International GBS Outcome Study (IGOS). Results: Between 1 January and 30 June 2021, we received 67 reports of GBS following the ChAdOx1 vaccine (65 first doses) and three reports following the BNT162b2 vaccine (all first doses). The causal association with the vaccine was classified as probable for 56 (80%, all ChAdOx1), possible for 12 (17%, 10 ChAdOx1) and unlikely for two (3%, 1 ChAdOx1). A greater proportion of cases occurred in the 50-59 age group in comparison with prepandemic GBS. Most common clinical variants were sensorimotor GBS (n=55; 79%) and facial diplegia with paraesthesias (n=10; 14%). 10% (n=7/69) of patients reported an antecedent infection, compared with 77% (n=502/652) of the IGOS cohort (p<0.00001). Facial weakness (63% (n=44/70) vs 36% (n=220/620); p<0.00001) and sensory dysfunction (93% (n=63/68) vs 69% (n=408/588); p=0.00005) were more common but disease severity and outcomes were similar to the IGOS study. Interpretation: Most reports of GBS followed the first dose of ChAdOx1 vaccine. While our study cannot confirm or refute causation, this observation, together with the absence of alternative aetiologies, different than expected age distribution and the presence of unusual clinical features support a causal link. Clinicians and surveillance bodies should remain vigilant to the possibility of this very rare adverse event and its atypical variants.

Should Deep-Sequenced Amplicons Become the New Gold Standard for Analyzing Malaria Drug Clinical Trials?

Regulatory clinical trials are required to ensure the continued supply and deployment of effective antimalarial drugs. Patient follow-up in such trials typically lasts several weeks, as the drugs have long half-lives and new infections often occur during this period. "Molecular correction" is therefore used to distinguish drug failures from new infections. The current WHO-recommended method for molecular correction uses length-polymorphic alleles at highly diverse loci but is inherently poor at detecting low-density clones in polyclonal infections. This likely leads to substantial underestimates of failure rates, delaying the replacement of failing drugs with potentially lethal consequences. Deep-sequenced amplicons (AmpSeq) substantially increase the detectability of low-density clones and may offer a new "gold standard" for molecular correction. Pharmacological simulation of clinical trials was used to evaluate the suitability of AmpSeq for molecular correction. We investigated the impact of factors such as the number of amplicon loci analyzed, the informatics criteria used to distinguish genotyping "noise" from real low-density signals, the local epidemiology of malaria transmission, and the potential impact of genetic signals from gametocytes. AmpSeq greatly improved molecular correction and provided accurate drug failure rate estimates. The use of 3 to 5 amplicons was sufficient, and simple, nonstatistical criteria could be used to classify recurrent infections as drug failures or new infections. These results suggest AmpSeq is strongly placed to become the new standard for molecular correction in regulatory trials, with potential extension into routine surveillance once the requisite technical support becomes established.

Infant Exposure to Dolutegravir Through Placental and Breast Milk Transfer: A Population Pharmacokinetic Analysis of DolPHIN-1.

BACKGROUND: Rapid reduction in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) load is paramount to prevent peripartum transmission in women diagnosed late in pregnancy. We investigated dolutegravir population pharmacokinetics in maternal plasma, umbilical cord, breast milk, and infant plasma samples from DolPHIN-1 participants (NCT02245022) presenting with untreated HIV late in pregnancy (28-36 weeks gestation). METHODS: Pregnant women from Uganda and South Africa were randomized (1:1) to daily dolutegravir (50 mg/d) or efavirenz-based therapy. Dolutegravir pharmacokinetic sampling (0-24 hours) was undertaken 14 days after treatment initiation and within 1-3 weeks after delivery, with matched maternal and cord samples at delivery. Mothers were switched to efavirenz, and maternal and infant plasma and breast milk samples were obtained 24, 48, or 72 hours after the switch. Nonlinear mixed-effects modeling was used to describe dolutegravir in all matrices and to evaluate covariates. RESULTS: A total of 28 women and 22 infants were included. Maternal dolutegravir was described by a 2-compartment model linked to a fetal and breast milk compartment. Cord and breast milk to maternal plasma ratios were 1.279 (1.209-1.281) and 0.033 (0.021-0.050), respectively. Infant dolutegravir was described by breast milk-to-infant and infant elimination rate constants. No covariate effects were observed. The median predicted infant dolutegravir half-life and median time to protein-adjusted 90% inhibitory concentration (0.064 mg/L) for those above this threshold were 37.9 (range, 22.1-63.5) hours and 108.9 (18.6-129.6) hours (4.5 [0.8-5.4] days) (n = 13), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Breastfeeding contributed relatively little to infant plasma exposure, but a median of 4.5 days of additional prophylaxis to some of the breastfed infants was observed after cessation of maternal dolutegravir (3-15 days postpartum), which waned with time postpartum as transplacental dolutegravir cleared.

Dolutegravir versus efavirenz in women starting HIV therapy in late pregnancy (DolPHIN-2): an open-label, randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Late initiation of HIV antiretroviral therapy (ART) in pregnancy is associated with not achieving viral suppression before giving birth and increased mother-to-child transmission of HIV. We aimed to investigate virological suppression before giving birth with dolutegravir compared with efavirenz, when initiated during the third trimester. METHODS: In this randomised, open-label trial, DolPHIN-2, we recruited pregnant women in South Africa and Uganda aged at least 18 years, with untreated but confirmed HIV infection and an estimated gestation of at least 28 weeks, initiating ART in third trimester. Participants were randomly assigned (1:1) to dolutegravir-based or efavirenz-based therapy. HIV viral load was measured 7 days and 28 days after antiretroviral initiation, at 36 weeks' gestation, and at the post-partum visit (0-14 days post partum). The primary efficacy outcome was a viral load of less than 50 copies per mL at the first post-partum visit, and the primary safety outcome was the occurrence of drug-related adverse events in mothers and infants until the post-partum visit. Longer-term follow-up of mothers and infants continues. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03249181. FINDINGS: Between Jan 23, and Aug 15, 2018, we randomly assigned 268 mothers to dolutegravir (135) or efavirenz (133). All mothers and their infants were included in the safety analysis, and 250 mothers (125 in the dolutegravir group, 125 in the efavirenz group) and their infants in efficacy analyses, by intention-to-treat analyses. The median duration of maternal therapy at birth was 55 days (IQR 33-77). 89 (74%) of 120 in the dolutegravir group had viral loads less than 50 copies per mL, compared with 50 (43%) of 117 in the efavirenz group (risk ratio 1·64, 95% CI 1·31-2·06). 30 (22%) of 137 mothers in the dolutegravir group reported serious adverse events compared with 14 (11%) of 131 in the efavirenz group (p=0·013), particularly surrounding pregnancy and puerperium. We found no differences in births less than 37 weeks and less than 34 weeks gestation (16·4% vs 3·3%, across both groups). Three stillbirths in the dolutegravir group and one in the efavirenz group were considered unrelated to treatment. Three infant HIV infections were detected, all in the dolutegravir group, and were considered likely to be in-utero transmissions. INTERPRETATION: Our data support the revision to WHO guidelines recommending the transition to dolutegravir in first-line ART for all adults, regardless of pregnancy or child-bearing potential. FUNDING: Unitaid.

A Computer Modelling Approach To Evaluate the Accuracy of Microsatellite Markers for Classification of Recurrent Infections during Routine Monitoring of Antimalarial Drug Efficacy.

Antimalarial drugs have long half-lives, so clinical trials to monitor their efficacy require long periods of follow-up to capture drug failure that may become patent only weeks after treatment. Reinfections often occur during follow-up, so robust methods of distinguishing drug failures (recrudescence) from emerging new infections are needed to produce accurate failure rate estimates. Molecular correction aims to achieve this by comparing the genotype of a patient's pretreatment (initial) blood sample with that of any infection that occurs during follow-up, with matching genotypes indicating drug failure. We use an in silico approach to show that the widely used match-counting method of molecular correction with microsatellite markers is likely to be highly unreliable and may lead to gross under- or overestimates of the true failure rates, depending on the choice of matching criterion. A Bayesian algorithm for molecular correction was previously developed and utilized for analysis of in vivo efficacy trials. We validated this algorithm using in silico data and showed it had high specificity and generated accurate failure rate estimates. This conclusion was robust for multiple drugs, different levels of drug failure rates, different levels of transmission intensity in the study sites, and microsatellite genetic diversity. The Bayesian algorithm was inherently unable to accurately identify low-density recrudescence that occurred in a small number of patients, but this did not appear to compromise its utility as a highly effective molecular correction method for analyzing microsatellite genotypes. Strong consideration should be given to using Bayesian methodology to obtain accurate failure rate estimates during routine monitoring trials of antimalarial efficacy that use microsatellite markers.

Safety and pharmacokinetics of dolutegravir in pregnant mothers with HIV infection and their neonates: A randomised trial (DolPHIN-1 study).

BACKGROUND: The global transition to use of dolutegravir (DTG) in WHO-preferred regimens for HIV treatment is limited by lack of knowledge on use in pregnancy. Here we assessed the relationship between drug concentrations (pharmacokinetics, PK), including in breastmilk, and impact on viral suppression when initiated in the third trimester (T3). METHODS AND FINDINGS: In DolPHIN-1, HIV-infected treatment-naïve pregnant women (28-36 weeks of gestation, age 26 (19-42), weight 67kg (45-119), all Black African) in Uganda and South Africa were randomised 1:1 to dolutegravir (DTG) or efavirenz (EFV)-containing ART until 2 weeks post-partum (2wPP), between 9th March 2017 and 16th January 2018, with follow-up until six months postpartum. The primary endpoint was pharmacokinetics of DTG in women and breastfed infants; secondary endpoints included maternal and infant safety and viral suppression. Intensive pharmacokinetic sampling of DTG was undertaken at day 14 and 2wPP following administration of a medium-fat breakfast, with additional paired sampling between maternal plasma and cord blood, breastmilk and infant plasma. No differences in median baseline maternal age, gestation (31 vs 30 weeks), weight, obstetric history, viral load (4.5 log10 copies/mL both arms) and CD4 count (343 vs 466 cells/mm3) were observed between DTG (n = 29) and EFV (n = 31) arms. Although DTG Ctrough was below the target 324ng/mL (clinical EC90) in 9/28 (32%) mothers in the third trimester, transfer across the placenta (121% of plasma concentrations) and into breastmilk (3% of plasma concentrations), coupled with slower elimination, led to significant infant plasma exposures (3-8% of maternal exposures). Both regimens were well-tolerated with no significant differences in frequency of adverse events (two on DTG-ART, one on EFV-ART, all considered unrelated to drug). No congenital abnormalities were observed. DTG resulted in significantly faster viral suppression (P = 0.02) at the 2wPP visit, with median time to <50 copies/mL of 32 vs 72 days. Limitations related to the requirement to initiate EFV-ART prior to randomisation, and to continue DTG for only two weeks postpartum. CONCLUSION: Despite low plasma DTG exposures in the third trimester, transfer across the placenta and through breastfeeding was observed in this study, with persistence in infants likely due to slower metabolic clearance. HIV RNA suppression <50 copies/mL was twice as fast with DTG compared to EFV, suggesting DTG has potential to reduce risk of vertical transmission in mothers who are initiated on treatment late in pregnancy. TRIAL REGISTRATION: clinicaltrials.gov NCT02245022.

Optimal Treatments for Severe Malaria and the Threat Posed by Artemisinin Resistance.

BACKGROUND: Standard treatment for severe malaria is with artesunate; patient survival in the 24 hours immediately posttreatment is the key objective. Clinical trials use clearance rates of circulating parasites as their clinical outcome, but the pathology of severe malaria is attributed primarily to noncirculating, sequestered, parasites, so there is a disconnect between existing clinical metrics and objectives. METHODS: We extend existing pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic modeling methods to simulate the treatment of 10000 patients with severe malaria and track the pathology caused by sequestered parasites. RESULTS: Our model recovered the clinical outcomes of existing studies (based on circulating parasites) and showed a "simplified" artesunate regimen was noninferior to the existing World Health Organization regimen across the patient population but resulted in worse outcomes in a subgroup of patients with infections clustered in early stages of the parasite life cycle. This same group of patients were extremely vulnerable to resistance emerging in parasite early ring stages. CONCLUSIONS: We quantify patient outcomes in a manner appropriate for severe malaria with a flexible framework that allows future researchers to implement their beliefs about underlying pathology. We highlight with some urgency the threat posed to treatment of severe malaria by artemisinin resistance in parasite early ring stages.

Comparison of Two Genotyping Methods for Distinguishing Recrudescence from Reinfection in Antimalarial Drug Efficacy/Effectiveness Trials.

Genotyping of allelic variants of Plasmodium falciparum merozoite surface proteins 1 and 2 (msp-1 and msp-2), and the glutamate-rich protein is the gold standard for distinguishing reinfections from recrudescences in antimalarial drug trials. We compared performance of the recently developed 24-single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) Barcoding Assay against msp-1 and msp-2 genotyping in a cluster-randomized effectiveness trial of artemether-lumefantrine and dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine in Malawi. Rates of recrudescence and reinfection estimated by the two methods did not differ significantly (Fisher's exact test; P = 0.887 and P = 0.768, respectively). There was a strong agreement between the two methods in predicting treatment outcomes and resolving the genetic complexity of malaria infections in this setting. These results support the use of this SNP assay as an alternative method for correcting antimalarial efficacy/effectiveness data.

Linezolid pharmacokinetics in MDR-TB: a systematic review, meta-analysis and Monte Carlo simulation.

Objectives: The oxazolidinone linezolid is an effective component of drug-resistant TB treatment, but its use is limited by toxicity and the optimum dose is uncertain. Current strategies are not informed by clinical pharmacokinetic (PK)/pharmacodynamic (PD) data; we aimed to address this gap. Methods: We defined linezolid PK/PD targets for efficacy (fAUC0-24:MIC >119 mg/L/h) and safety (fCmin <1.38 mg/L). We extracted individual-level linezolid PK data from existing studies on TB patients and performed meta-analysis, producing summary estimates of fAUC0-24 and fCmin for published doses. Combining these with a published MIC distribution, we performed Monte Carlo simulations of target attainment. Results: The efficacy target was attained in all simulated individuals at 300 mg q12h and 600 mg q12h, but only 20.7% missed the safety target at 300 mg q12h versus 98.5% at 600 mg q12h. Although suggesting 300 mg q12h should be used preferentially, these data were reliant on a single centre. Efficacy and safety targets were missed by 41.0% and 24.2%, respectively, at 300 mg q24h and by 44.6% and 27.5%, respectively, at 600 mg q24h. However, the confounding effect of between-study heterogeneity on target attainment for q24h regimens was considerable. Conclusions: Linezolid dosing at 300 mg q12h may retain the efficacy of the 600 mg q12h licensed dosing with improved safety. Data to evaluate commonly used 300 mg q24h and 600 mg q24h doses are limited. Comprehensive, prospectively obtained PK/PD data for linezolid doses in drug-resistant TB treatment are required.

Stability of Dihydroartemisinin-Piperaquine Tablet Halves During Prolonged Storage Under Tropical Conditions.

Dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (DP) is recommended for the treatment of uncomplicated malaria, used in efforts to contain artemisinin resistance, and increasingly considered for mass drug administration. Because of the narrow therapeutic dose range and available tablet strengths, the manufacturers and World Health Organization recommended regimens involve breaking tablets into halves to accurately dose children according to body weight. Use of tablet fractions in programmatic settings under tropical conditions requires a highly stable product; however, the stability of DP tablet fractions is unknown. We aged full and half DP (Eurartesim®) tablets in a stability chamber at 30°C and 70% humidity level. The active pharmaceutical ingredients dihydroartemisinin and piperaquine remained at ≥ 95% over the 3 months' period of ageing in light and darkness. These findings are reassuring for DP, but highlight the need to assess drug stability under real-life settings during the drug development process, particularly for key drugs of global disease control programs.

Quantifying the pharmacology of antimalarial drug combination therapy.

Most current antimalarial drugs are combinations of an artemisinin plus a 'partner' drug from another class, and are known as artemisinin-based combination therapies (ACTs). They are the frontline drugs in treating human malaria infections. They also have a public-health role as an essential component of recent, comprehensive scale-ups of malaria interventions and containment efforts conceived as part of longer term malaria elimination efforts. Recent reports that resistance has arisen to artemisinins has caused considerable concern. We investigate the likely impact of artemisinin resistance by quantifying the contribution artemisinins make to the overall therapeutic capacity of ACTs. We achieve this using a simple, easily understood, algebraic approach and by more sophisticated pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic analyses of drug action; the two approaches gave consistent results. Surprisingly, the artemisinin component typically makes a negligible contribution (≪0.0001%) to the therapeutic capacity of the most widely used ACTs and only starts to make a significant contribution to therapeutic outcome once resistance has started to evolve to the partner drugs. The main threat to antimalarial drug effectiveness and control comes from resistance evolving to the partner drugs. We therefore argue that public health policies be re-focussed to maximise the likely long-term effectiveness of the partner drugs.

Incorporating Stage-Specific Drug Action into Pharmacological Modeling of Antimalarial Drug Treatment.

Pharmacological modeling of antiparasitic treatment based on a drug's pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic properties plays an increasingly important role in identifying optimal drug dosing regimens and predicting their potential impact on control and elimination programs. Conventional modeling of treatment relies on methods that do not distinguish between parasites at different developmental stages. This is problematic for malaria parasites, as their sensitivity to drugs varies substantially during their 48-h developmental cycle. We investigated four drug types (short or long half-lives with or without stage-specific killing) to quantify the accuracy of the standard methodology. The treatment dynamics of three drug types were well characterized with standard modeling. The exception were short-half-life drugs with stage-specific killing (i.e., artemisinins) because, depending on time of treatment, parasites might be in highly drug-sensitive stages or in much less sensitive stages. We describe how to bring such drugs into pharmacological modeling by including additional variation into the drug's maximal killing rate. Finally, we show that artemisinin kill rates may have been substantially overestimated in previous modeling studies because (i) the parasite reduction ratio (PRR) (generally estimated to be 10(4)) is based on observed changes in circulating parasite numbers, which generally overestimate the "true" PRR, which should include both circulating and sequestered parasites, and (ii) the third dose of artemisinin at 48 h targets exactly those stages initially hit at time zero, so it is incorrect to extrapolate the PRR measured over 48 h to predict the impact of doses at 48 h and later.

How Robust Are Malaria Parasite Clearance Rates as Indicators of Drug Effectiveness and Resistance?

Artemisinin-based combination therapies (ACTs) are currently the first-line drugs for treating uncomplicated falciparum malaria, the most deadly of the human malarias. Malaria parasite clearance rates estimated from patients' blood following ACT treatment have been widely adopted as a measure of drug effectiveness and as surveillance tools for detecting the presence of potential artemisinin resistance. This metric has not been investigated in detail, nor have its properties or potential shortcomings been identified. Herein, the pharmacology of drug treatment, parasite biology, and human immunity are combined to investigate the dynamics of parasite clearance following ACT. This approach parsimoniously recovers the principal clinical features and dynamics of clearance. Human immunity is the primary determinant of clearance rates, unless or until artemisinin killing has fallen to near-ineffective levels. Clearance rates are therefore highly insensitive metrics for surveillance that may lead to overconfidence, as even quite substantial reductions in drug sensitivity may not be detected as lower clearance rates. Equally serious is the use of clearance rates to quantify the impact of ACT regimen changes, as this strategy will plausibly miss even very substantial increases in drug effectiveness. In particular, the malaria community may be missing the opportunity to dramatically increase ACT effectiveness through regimen changes, particularly through a switch to twice-daily regimens and/or increases in artemisinin dosing levels. The malaria community therefore appears overreliant on a single metric of drug effectiveness, the parasite clearance rate, that has significant and serious shortcomings.

Altering Antimalarial Drug Regimens May Dramatically Enhance and Restore Drug Effectiveness.

There is considerable concern that malaria parasites are starting to evolve resistance to the current generation of antimalarial drugs, the artemisinin-based combination therapies (ACTs). We use pharmacological modeling to investigate changes in ACT effectiveness likely to occur if current regimens are extended from 3 to 5 days or, alternatively, given twice daily over 3 days. We show that the pharmacology of artemisinins allows both regimen changes to substantially increase the artemisinin killing rate. Malaria patients rarely contain more than 10(12) parasites, while the standard dosing regimens allow approximately 1 in 10(10) parasites to survive artemisinin treatment. Parasite survival falls dramatically, to around 1 in 10(17) parasites if the dose is extended or split; theoretically, this increase in drug killing appears to be more than sufficient to restore failing ACT efficacy. One of the most widely used dosing regimens, artemether-lumefantrine, already successfully employs a twice-daily dosing regimen, and we argue that twice-daily dosing should be incorporated into all ACT regimen design considerations as a simple and effective way of ensuring the continued long-term effectiveness of ACTs.

Age-shifting in malaria incidence as a result of induced immunological deficit: a simulation study.

Effective population-level interventions against Plasmodium falciparum malaria lead to age-shifts, delayed morbidity or rebounds in morbidity and mortality whenever they are deployed in ways that do not permanently interrupt transmission. When long-term intervention programmes target specific age-groups of human hosts, the age-specific morbidity rates ultimately adjust to new steady-states, but it is very difficult to study these rates and the temporal dynamics leading up to them empirically because the changes occur over very long time periods. This study investigates the age and magnitude of age- and time- shifting of incidence induced by either pre-erythrocytic vaccination (PEV) programmes or seasonal malaria chemo-prevention (SMC), using an ensemble of individual-based stochastic simulation models of P. falciparum dynamics. The models made various assumptions about immunity decay, transmission heterogeneity and were parameterized with data on both age-specific infection and disease incidence at different levels of exposure, on the durations of different stages of the parasite life-cycle and on human demography. Effects of transmission intensity, and of levels of access to malaria treatment were considered. While both PEV and SMC programmes are predicted to have overall strongly positive health effects, a shift of morbidity into older children is predicted to be induced by either programme if transmission levels remain static and not reduced by other interventions. Predicted shifting of burden continue into the second decade of the programme. Even if long-term surveillance is maintained it will be difficult to avoid mis-attribution of such long-term changes in age-specific morbidity patterns to other factors. Conversely, short-lived transient changes in incidence measured soon after introduction of a new intervention may give over-positive views of future impacts. Complementary intervention strategies could be designed to specifically protect those age-groups at risk from burden shift.