A spatiotemporally explicit modeling approach for more realistic exposure and risk assessment of off-field soil organisms.

Natural and seminatural habitats of soil living organisms in cultivated landscapes can be subject to unintended exposure by active substances of plant protection products (PPPs) used in adjacent fields. Spray-drift deposition and runoff are considered major exposure routes into such off-field areas. In this work, we develop a model (xOffFieldSoil) and associated scenarios to estimate exposure of off-field soil habitats. The modular model approach consists of components, each addressing a specific aspect of exposure processes, for example, PPP use, drift deposition, runoff generation and filtering, estimation of soil concentrations. The approach is spatiotemporally explicit and operates at scales ranging from local edge-of-field to large landscapes. The outcome can be aggregated and presented to the risk assessor in a way that addresses the dimensions and scales defined in specific protection goals (SPGs). The approach can be used to assess the effect of mitigation options, for example, field margins, in-field buffers, or drift-reducing technology. The presented provisional scenarios start with a schematic edge-of-field situation and extend to real-world landscapes of up to 5 km × 5 km. A case study was conducted for two active substances of different environmental fate characteristics. Results are presented as a collection of percentiles over time and space, as contour plots, and as maps. The results show that exposure patterns of off-field soil organisms are of a complex nature due to spatial and temporal variabilities combined with landscape structure and event-based processes. Our concepts and analysis demonstrate that more realistic exposure data can be meaningfully consolidated to serve in standard-tier risk assessments. The real-world landscape-scale scenarios indicate risk hot-spots that support the identification of efficient risk mitigation. As a next step, the spatiotemporally explicit exposure data can be directly coupled to ecological effect models (e.g., for earthworms or collembola) to conduct risk assessments at biological entity levels as required by SPGs. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2024;20:263-278. © 2023 Applied Analysis Solutions LLC and WSC Scientific GmbH and Bayer AG and The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Society of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry (SETAC).

Applying weight of evidence methods to assessing exposure in aquatic environments: Comparing lines of evidence.

Weight of evidence (WoE) is a useful approach to quantifying the relative relevance, strength, reliability, and uncertainty associated with estimates of exposure concentrations. WoE is often used in exposure assessments but rarely explored or discussed in detail. In this article, the utility of a WoE approach in aquatic exposure assessments is illustrated via two case studies using a tiered approach and the chemical triclosan. Each case study evaluates the same chemical and pathway to the environment but with substantially different data strength, reliability, and uncertainty. The collection and qualitative evaluation of relevant lines of evidence (LoE) using a three-tiered approach are discussed. Our results demonstrate how a higher tiered WoE approach can reduce uncertainty and improve decision-making based on predicted exposure concentrations. We also identify LoE that played a significant role in the final exposure determinations and describe a framework for conducting exposure assessments using WoE. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2023;19:1207-1219. © 2022 SETAC.

National characterization of pesticide runoff and erosion potential to put USEPA standard ecological scenarios in context for pyrethroids.

Decision-making for pesticide registration by the US Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) relies upon crop-specific scenarios in a tiered framework. These standard modeling scenarios are stated to represent "…sites expected to produce runoff greater than would be expected at 90% of the sites for a given crop/use." This study developed a novel approach to compare the pesticide runoff + erosion (SumRE ) mass flux potential of a hydrophobic chemical using 36 of these ecological regulatory scenarios with national-scale distributions of modeled SumRE from over 750 000 USA-wide agricultural catchments to provide real-world context for the simulated transport predictions used for regulatory decision-making. For the standard scenarios and national scale modeling, "edge of field" SumRE mass flux was estimated using regulatory guidance for a hypothetical pyrethroid. The national-scale simulations were developed using publicly available soil, hydrography, and crop occurrence /regional timings databases. Relevant soil and crop combinations identified by spatial overlay along with weather data were used in a regulatory model to generate daily SumRE estimates, which were assigned to the catchments. The resulting average annual total SumRE mass fluxes were ranked to produce distributions to compare with the standard regulatory scenario outputs. These comparisons showed that SumRE flux from 25 of the 36 USEPA ecological regulatory crop-specific scenarios modeled ranked above the 99th percentile of pyrethroid runoff + erosion vulnerability from any catchment growing that crop; SumRE flux from six scenarios was more severe than any catchment. For 12 USEPA regulatory scenarios, the resulting eroded sediment corresponds to highly erodible land (HEL), which the US Department of Agriculture mandates should not be cropped without substantial additional erosion prevention controls for sustainability. Since the pesticide regulatory framework already incorporates many acknowledged assumptions to ensure it conservatively meets protection goals, these HEL observations suggest that the standard scenarios overestimate potential aquatic exposure and that the regulatory process is more protective than intended. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2023;19:175-190. © 2022 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Society of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry (SETAC).

Heterogeneity in biological assemblages and exposure in chemical risk assessment: Exploring capabilities and challenges in methodology with two landscape-scale case studies.

Chemical exposure concentrations and the composition of ecological receptors (e.g., species) vary in space and time, resulting in landscape-scale (e.g. catchment) heterogeneity. Current regulatory, prospective chemical risk assessment frameworks do not directly address this heterogeneity because they assume that reasonably worst-case chemical exposure concentrations co-occur (spatially and temporally) with biological species that are the most sensitive to the chemical's toxicity. Whilst current approaches may parameterise fate models with site-specific data and aim to be protective, a more precise understanding of when and where chemical exposure and species sensitivity co-occur enables risk assessments to be better tailored and applied mitigation more efficient. We use two aquatic case studies covering different spatial and temporal resolution to explore how geo-referenced data and spatial tools might be used to account for landscape heterogeneity of chemical exposure and ecological assemblages in prospective risk assessment. Each case study followed a stepwise approach: i) estimate and establish spatial chemical exposure distributions using local environmental information and environmental fate models; ii) derive toxicity thresholds for different taxonomic groups and determine geo-referenced distributions of exposure-toxicity ratios (i.e., potential risk); iii) overlay risk data with the ecological status of biomonitoring sites to determine if relationships exist. We focus on demonstrating whether the integration of relevant data and potential approaches is feasible rather than making comprehensive and refined risk assessments of specific chemicals. The case studies indicate that geo-referenced predicted environmental concentration estimations can be achieved with available data, models and tools but establishing the distribution of species assemblages is reliant on the availability of a few sources of biomonitoring data and tools. Linking large sets of geo-referenced exposure and biomonitoring data is feasible but assessment of risk will often be limited by the availability of ecotoxicity data. The studies highlight the important influence that choices for aggregating data and for the selection of statistical metrics have on assessing and interpreting risk at different spatial scales and patterns of distribution within the landscape. Finally, we discuss approaches and development needs that could help to address environmental heterogeneity in chemical risk assessment.

A National-Scale Framework for Visualizing Riverine Concentrations of Microplastics Released from Municipal Wastewater Treatment Incorporating Generalized Instream Losses.

Down-the-drain exposure models provide a valuable tool for estimating environmental exposure to substances which are treated and discharged by municipal wastewater-treatment plants (WWTPs). Microplastics may enter WWTPs from consumer activities and disposal. An exposure framework was developed using the iSTREEM® model, which estimates spatially explicit concentrations of substances in riverine systems across the United States and portions of Ontario, Canada. One hundred simulations covering a range of WWTP removal and instream loss rates (proxy for net sedimentation) were incorporated into a Web-based visualization tool for user exploration of relative concentrations across simulations. Surface water concentrations specific to user-supplied tonnage were examined via interactive heat maps and cumulative distributions. Exploring the spatial aspect of iSTREEM results showed that modeling 90% WWTP removal and no instream loss resulted in 8.5% of the mass entering WWTPs discharged to marine estuaries (7.4%) or Great Lakes (1.1%) environments, with the remainder of the mass discharged (1.5%) in inland sinks or exiting the United States via rivers. Modeling an example instream loss of k = 0.1 d-1 (i.e., half-life = 7 d), terminal river segments contained 3.3% of influent mass (2.3% marine estuaries, 1.0% Great Lakes). Varying instream loss rates had substantial impacts on the total mass exported. The Web-based tool provided a user-based mechanism to visualize relative freshwater concentrations of microplastics across a large geographic area by varying simplified particle fate assumptions. Environ Toxicol Chem 2019;39:210-219. © 2019 SETAC.

Prospective mixture risk assessment and management prioritizations for river catchments with diverse land uses.

Ecological risk assessment increasingly focuses on risks from chemical mixtures and multiple stressors because ecosystems are commonly exposed to a plethora of contaminants and nonchemical stressors. To simplify the task of assessing potential mixture effects, we explored 3 land use-related chemical emission scenarios. We applied a tiered methodology to judge the implications of the emissions of chemicals from agricultural practices, domestic discharges, and urban runoff in a quantitative model. The results showed land use-dependent mixture exposures, clearly discriminating downstream effects of land uses, with unique chemical "signatures" regarding composition, concentration, and temporal patterns. Associated risks were characterized in relation to the land-use scenarios. Comparisons to measured environmental concentrations and predicted impacts showed relatively good similarity. The results suggest that the land uses imply exceedances of regulatory protective environmental quality standards, varying over time in relation to rain events and associated flow and dilution variation. Higher-tier analyses using ecotoxicological effect criteria confirmed that species assemblages may be affected by exposures exceeding no-effect levels and that mixture exposure could be associated with predicted species loss under certain situations. The model outcomes can inform various types of prioritization to support risk management, including a ranking across land uses as a whole, a ranking on characteristics of exposure times and frequencies, and various rankings of the relative role of individual chemicals. Though all results are based on in silico assessments, the prospective land use-based approach applied in the present study yields useful insights for simplifying and assessing potential ecological risks of chemical mixtures and can therefore be useful for catchment-management decisions. Environ Toxicol Chem 2018;37:715-728. © 2017 The Authors. Environmental Toxicology Chemistry Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Prospective aquatic risk assessment for chemical mixtures in agricultural landscapes.

Environmental risk assessment of chemical mixtures is challenging because of the multitude of possible combinations that may occur. Aquatic risk from chemical mixtures in an agricultural landscape was evaluated prospectively in 2 exposure scenario case studies: at field scale for a program of 13 plant-protection products applied annually for 20 yr and at a watershed scale for a mixed land-use scenario over 30 yr with 12 plant-protection products and 2 veterinary pharmaceuticals used for beef cattle. Risk quotients were calculated from regulatory exposure models with typical real-world use patterns and regulatory acceptable concentrations for individual chemicals. The results could differentiate situations when there was concern associated with single chemicals from those when concern was associated with a mixture (based on concentration addition) with no single chemical triggering concern. Potential mixture risk was identified on 0.02 to 7.07% of the total days modeled, depending on the scenario, the taxa, and whether considering acute or chronic risk. Taxa at risk were influenced by receiving water body characteristics along with chemical use profiles and associated properties. The present study demonstrates that a scenario-based approach can be used to determine whether mixtures of chemicals pose risks over and above any identified using existing approaches for single chemicals, how often and to what magnitude, and ultimately which mixtures (and dominant chemicals) cause greatest concern. Environ Toxicol Chem 2018;37:674-689. © 2017 The Authors. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of SETAC.

Eco-epidemiology of aquatic ecosystems: Separating chemicals from multiple stressors.

A non-toxic environment and a good ecological status are policy goals guiding research and management of chemicals and surface water systems in Europe and elsewhere. Research and policies on chemicals and water are however still disparate and unable to evaluate the relative ecological impacts of chemical mixtures and other stressors. This paper defines and explores the use of eco-epidemiological analysis of surveillance monitoring data sets via a proxy to quantify mixture impacts on ecosystems. Case studies show examples of different, progressive steps that are possible. Case study data were obtained for various regions in Europe and the United States. Data types relate to potential stressors at various scales, concerning landscape, land-use, in-stream physico-chemical and pollutant data, and data on fish and invertebrates. The proxy-values for mixture impacts were quantified as predicted (multi-substance) Potentially Affected Fractions of species (msPAF), using Species Sensitivity Distribution (SSD) models in conjunction with bioavailability and mixture models. The case studies summarize the monitoring data sets and the subsequent diagnostic bioassessments. Variation in mixture toxic pressures amongst sites appeared to covary with abundance changes in large (50-86%) percentages of taxa for the various study regions. This shows that an increased mixture toxic pressure (msPAF) relates to increased ecological impacts. Subsequent multi-stressor evaluations resulted in statistically significant, site-specific diagnosis of the magnitudes of ecological impacts and the relative contributions of different stress factors to those impacts. This included both mixtures and individual chemicals. These results allow for ranking stressors, sites and impacted species groups. That is relevant information for water management. The case studies are discussed in relation to policy and management strategies that support reaching a non-toxic environment and good ecological status. Reaching these goals requires not only focused sectoral policies, such as on chemical- or water management, but also an overarching and solution-focused view.

iSTREEM(®) : An approach for broad-scale in-stream exposure assessment of "down-the-drain" chemicals.

The "in-stream exposure model" iSTREEM(®) , a Web-based model made freely available to the public by the American Cleaning Institute, provides a means to estimate concentrations of "down-the-drain" chemicals in effluent, receiving waters, and drinking water intakes across national and regional scales under mean annual and low-flow conditions. We provide an overview of the evolution and utility of the iSTREEM model as a screening-level risk assessment tool relevant for down-the-drain products. The spatial nature of the model, integrating point locations of facilities along a hydrologic network, provides a powerful framework to assess environmental exposure and risk in a spatial context. A case study compared national distributions of modeled concentrations of the fragrance 1,3,4,6,7,8-Hexahydro-4,6,6,7,8,8,-hexamethylcyclopenta-γ-2-benzopyran (HHCB) and the insect repellent N,N-Diethyl-m-toluamide (DEET) to available monitoring data at comparable flow conditions. The iSTREEM low-flow model results yielded a conservative distribution of values, whereas the mean-flow model results more closely resembled the concentration distribution of monitoring data. We demonstrate how model results can be used to construct a conservative estimation of the distribution of chemical concentrations for effluents and streams leading to the derivation of a predicted environmental concentration (PEC) using the high end of the concentration distribution (e.g., 90th percentile). Data requirements, assumptions, and applications of iSTREEM are discussed in the context of other down-the-drain modeling approaches to enhance understanding of comparative advantages and uncertainties for prospective users interested in exposure modeling for ecological risk assessment. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2016;12:782-792. © 2016 SETAC.

Hunting, Exotic Carnivores, and Habitat Loss: Anthropogenic Effects on a Native Carnivore Community, Madagascar.

The wide-ranging, cumulative, negative effects of anthropogenic disturbance, including habitat degradation, exotic species, and hunting, on native wildlife has been well documented across a range of habitats worldwide with carnivores potentially being the most vulnerable due to their more extinction prone characteristics. Investigating the effects of anthropogenic pressures on sympatric carnivores is needed to improve our ability to develop targeted, effective management plans for carnivore conservation worldwide. Utilizing photographic, line-transect, and habitat sampling, as well as landscape analyses and village-based bushmeat hunting surveys, we provide the first investigation of how multiple forms of habitat degradation (fragmentation, exotic carnivores, human encroachment, and hunting) affect carnivore occupancy across Madagascar's largest protected area: the Masoala-Makira landscape. We found that as degradation increased, native carnivore occupancy and encounter rates decreased while exotic carnivore occupancy and encounter rates increased. Feral cats (Felis species) and domestic dogs (Canis familiaris) had higher occupancy than half of the native carnivore species across Madagascar's largest protected landscape. Bird and small mammal encounter rates were negatively associated with exotic carnivore occupancy, but positively associated with the occupancy of four native carnivore species. Spotted fanaloka (Fossa fossana) occupancy was constrained by the presence of exotic feral cats and exotic small Indian civet (Viverricula indica). Hunting was intense across the four study sites where hunting was studied, with the highest rates for the small Indian civet (mean=90 individuals consumed/year), the ring-tailed vontsira (Galidia elegans) (mean=58 consumed/year), and the fosa (Cryptoprocta ferox) (mean=31 consumed/year). Our modeling results suggest hunters target intact forest where carnivore occupancy, abundance, and species richness, are highest. These various anthropogenic pressures and their effects on carnivore populations, especially increases in exotic carnivores and hunting, have wide-ranging, global implications and demand effective management plans to target the influx of exotic carnivores and unsustainable hunting that is affecting carnivore populations across Madagascar and worldwide.

Developing a foundation for eco-epidemiological assessment of aquatic ecological status over large geographic regions utilizing existing data resources and models.

Eco-epidemiological studies utilizing existing monitoring program data provide a cost-effective means to bridge the gap between the ecological status and chemical status of watersheds and to develop hypotheses of stressor attribution that can influence the design of higher-tier assessments and subsequent management. The present study describes the process of combining existing data and models to develop a robust starting point for eco-epidemiological analyses of watersheds over large geographic scales. Data resources from multiple federal and local agencies representing a range of biological, chemical, physical, toxicological, and other landscape factors across the state of Ohio, USA (2000-2007), were integrated with the National Hydrography Dataset Plus hydrologic model (US Environmental Protection Agency and US Geological Survey). A variety of variable reduction, selection, and optimization strategies were applied to develop eco-epidemiological data sets for fish and macroinvertebrate communities. The relative importance of landscape variables was compared across spatial scales (local catchment, watershed, near-stream) using conditional inference forests to determine the scales most relevant to variation in biological community condition. Conditional inference forest analysis applied to a holistic set of environmental variables yielded stressor-response hypotheses at the statewide and eco-regional levels. The analysis confirmed the dominant influence of state-level stressors such as physical habitat condition, while highlighting differences in predictive strength of other stressors based on ecoregional and land-use characteristics. This exercise lays the groundwork for subsequent work designed to move closer to causal inference.

Testing hypotheses for the success of different conservation strategies.

Evaluations of the success of different conservation strategies are still in their infancy. We used four different measures of project outcomes--ecological, economic, attitudinal, and behavioral--to test hypotheses derived from the assumptions that underlie contemporary conservation solutions. Our hypotheses concerned the effects of natural resource utilization, market integration, decentralization, and community homogeneity on project success. We reviewed the conservation and development literature and used a specific protocol to extract and code the information in a sample of papers. Although our results are by no means conclusive and suffer from the paucity of high-quality data and independent monitoring (80% of the original sample of 124 projects provided inadequate information for use in this study), they show that permitted use of natural resources, market access, and greater community involvement in the conservation project are all important factors for a successful outcome. Without better monitoring schemes in place, it is still impossible to provide a systematic evaluation of how different strategies are best suited to different conservation challenges.