Overcoming bias in estimating epidemiological parameters with realistic history-dependent disease spread dynamics.

Epidemiological parameters such as the reproduction number, latent period, and infectious period provide crucial information about the spread of infectious diseases and directly inform intervention strategies. These parameters have generally been estimated by mathematical models that involve an unrealistic assumption of history-independent dynamics for simplicity. This assumes that the chance of becoming infectious during the latent period or recovering during the infectious period remains constant, whereas in reality, these chances vary over time. Here, we find that conventional approaches with this assumption cause serious bias in epidemiological parameter estimation. To address this bias, we developed a Bayesian inference method by adopting more realistic history-dependent disease dynamics. Our method more accurately and precisely estimates the reproduction number than the conventional approaches solely from confirmed cases data, which are easy to obtain through testing. It also revealed how the infectious period distribution changed throughout the COVID-19 pandemic during 2020 in South Korea. We also provide a user-friendly package, IONISE, that automates this method.

Density physics-informed neural networks reveal sources of cell heterogeneity in signal transduction.

The transduction time between signal initiation and final response provides valuable information on the underlying signaling pathway, including its speed and precision. Furthermore, multi-modality in a transduction-time distribution indicates that the response is regulated by multiple pathways with different transduction speeds. Here, we developed a method called density physics-informed neural networks (Density-PINNs) to infer the transduction-time distribution from measurable final stress response time traces. We applied Density-PINNs to single-cell gene expression data from sixteen promoters regulated by unknown pathways in response to antibiotic stresses. We found that promoters with slower signaling initiation and transduction exhibit larger cell-to-cell heterogeneity in response intensity. However, this heterogeneity was greatly reduced when the response was regulated by slow and fast pathways together. This suggests a strategy for identifying effective signaling pathways for consistent cellular responses to disease treatments. Density-PINNs can also be applied to understand other time delay systems, including infectious diseases.

Inferring delays in partially observed gene regulation processes.

MOTIVATION: Cell function is regulated by gene regulatory networks (GRNs) defined by protein-mediated interaction between constituent genes. Despite advances in experimental techniques, we can still measure only a fraction of the processes that govern GRN dynamics. To infer the properties of GRNs using partial observation, unobserved sequential processes can be replaced with distributed time delays, yielding non-Markovian models. Inference methods based on the resulting model suffer from the curse of dimensionality. RESULTS: We develop a simulation-based Bayesian MCMC method employing an approximate likelihood for the efficient and accurate inference of GRN parameters when only some of their products are observed. We illustrate our approach using a two-step activation model: an activation signal leads to the accumulation of an unobserved regulatory protein, which triggers the expression of observed fluorescent proteins. With prior information about observed fluorescent protein synthesis, our method successfully infers the dynamics of the unobserved regulatory protein. We can estimate the delay and kinetic parameters characterizing target regulation including transcription, translation, and target searching of an unobserved protein from experimental measurements of the products of its target gene. Our method is scalable and can be used to analyze non-Markovian models with hidden components. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: Our code is implemented in R and is freely available with a simple example data at https://github.com/Mathbiomed/SimMCMC.

Modeling Incorporating the Severity-Reducing Long-term Immunity: Higher Viral Transmission Paradoxically Reduces Severe COVID-19 During Endemic Transition.

Natural infection with severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus-2 or vaccination induces virus-specific immunity protecting hosts from infection and severe disease. While the infection-preventing immunity gradually declines, the severity-reducing immunity is relatively well preserved. Here, based on the different longevity of these distinct immunities, we develop a mathematical model to estimate courses of endemic transition of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Our analysis demonstrates that high viral transmission unexpectedly reduces the rates of progression to severe COVID-19 during the course of endemic transition despite increased numbers of infection cases. Our study also shows that high viral transmission amongst populations with high vaccination coverages paradoxically accelerates the endemic transition of COVID-19 with reduced numbers of severe cases. These results provide critical insights for driving public health policies in the era of 'living with COVID-19.'

Systematic inference identifies a major source of heterogeneity in cell signaling dynamics: The rate-limiting step number.

Identifying the sources of cell-to-cell variability in signaling dynamics is essential to understand drug response variability and develop effective therapeutics. However, it is challenging because not all signaling intermediate reactions can be experimentally measured simultaneously. This can be overcome by replacing them with a single random time delay, but the resulting process is non-Markovian, making it difficult to infer cell-to-cell heterogeneity in reaction rates and time delays. To address this, we developed an efficient and scalable moment-based Bayesian inference method (MBI) with a user-friendly computational package that infers cell-to-cell heterogeneity in the non-Markovian signaling process. We applied MBI to single-cell expression profiles from promoters responding to antibiotics and discovered a major source of cell-to-cell variability in antibiotic stress response: the number of rate-limiting steps in signaling cascades. This knowledge can help identify effective therapies that destroy all pathogenic or cancer cells, and the approach can be applied to precision medicine.

Beyond the Michaelis-Menten: Bayesian Inference for Enzyme Kinetic Analysis.

Although the Michaelis-Menten (MM) rate law has been widely used to estimate enzyme kinetic parameters, it works only under the condition of extremely low enzyme concentration. Furthermore, even when this condition is satisfied, parameter estimation is often imprecise due to the parameter identifiability issue. To overcome these limitations of the canonical approach to enzyme kinetics, we developed a Bayesian approach based on a modified form of the MM rate law, which is derived with the total quasi-steady state approximation. Here, we illustrate how to perform the Bayesian inference for the progress curve assay with our user-friendly computational R package. We also describe an optimal experimental design for the progress curve assay, with which enzyme kinetic parameters can be accurately and precisely estimated from minimal measurements of the progress curves.

Personalized sleep-wake patterns aligned with circadian rhythm relieve daytime sleepiness.

Shift workers and many other groups experience irregular sleep-wake patterns. This can induce excessive daytime sleepiness that decreases productivity and elevates the risk of accidents. However, the degree of daytime sleepiness is not correlated with standard sleep parameters like total sleep time, suggesting other factors are involved. Here, we analyze real-world sleep-wake patterns of shift workers measured with wearables by developing a computational package that simulates homeostatic sleep pressure - physiological need for sleep - and the circadian rhythm. This reveals that shift workers who align sleep-wake patterns with their circadian rhythm have lower daytime sleepiness, even if they sleep less. The alignment, quantified by the sleep parameter, circadian sleep sufficiency, can be increased by dynamically adjusting daily sleep durations according to varying bedtimes. Our computational package provides flexible and personalized real-time sleep-wake patterns for individuals to reduce their daytime sleepiness and could be used with wearables to develop smart alarms.

Universally valid reduction of multiscale stochastic biochemical systems using simple non-elementary propensities.

Biochemical systems consist of numerous elementary reactions governed by the law of mass action. However, experimentally characterizing all the elementary reactions is nearly impossible. Thus, over a century, their deterministic models that typically contain rapid reversible bindings have been simplified with non-elementary reaction functions (e.g., Michaelis-Menten and Morrison equations). Although the non-elementary reaction functions are derived by applying the quasi-steady-state approximation (QSSA) to deterministic systems, they have also been widely used to derive propensities for stochastic simulations due to computational efficiency and simplicity. However, the validity condition for this heuristic approach has not been identified even for the reversible binding between molecules, such as protein-DNA, enzyme-substrate, and receptor-ligand, which is the basis for living cells. Here, we find that the non-elementary propensities based on the deterministic total QSSA can accurately capture the stochastic dynamics of the reversible binding in general. However, serious errors occur when reactant molecules with similar levels tightly bind, unlike deterministic systems. In that case, the non-elementary propensities distort the stochastic dynamics of a bistable switch in the cell cycle and an oscillator in the circadian clock. Accordingly, we derive alternative non-elementary propensities with the stochastic low-state QSSA, developed in this study. This provides a universally valid framework for simplifying multiscale stochastic biochemical systems with rapid reversible bindings, critical for efficient stochastic simulations of cell signaling and gene regulation. To facilitate the framework, we provide a user-friendly open-source computational package, ASSISTER, that automatically performs the present framework.

Hierarchical Bayesian models of transcriptional and translational regulation processes with delays.

MOTIVATION: Simultaneous recordings of gene network dynamics across large populations have revealed that cell characteristics vary considerably even in clonal lines. Inferring the variability of parameters that determine gene dynamics is key to understanding cellular behavior. However, this is complicated by the fact that the outcomes and effects of many reactions are not observable directly. Unobserved reactions can be replaced with time delays to reduce model dimensionality and simplify inference. However, the resulting models are non-Markovian, and require the development of new inference techniques. RESULTS: We propose a non-Markovian, hierarchical Bayesian inference framework for quantifying the variability of cellular processes within and across cells in a population. We illustrate our approach using a delayed birth-death process. In general, a distributed delay model, rather than a popular fixed delay model, is needed for inference, even if only mean reaction delays are of interest. Using in silico and experimental data we show that the proposed hierarchical framework is robust and leads to improved estimates compared to its non-hierarchical counterpart. We apply our method to data obtained using time-lapse microscopy and infer the parameters that describe the dynamics of protein production at the single cell and population level. The mean delays in protein production are larger than previously reported, have a coefficient of variation of around 0.2 across the population, and are not strongly correlated with protein production or growth rates. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: Accompanying code in Python is available at https://github.com/mvcortez/Bayesian-Inference. CONTACT: kresimir.josic@gmail.com or jaekkim@kaist.ac.kr or cbskust@korea.ac.kr. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Derivation of stationary distributions of biochemical reaction networks via structure transformation.

Long-term behaviors of biochemical reaction networks (BRNs) are described by steady states in deterministic models and stationary distributions in stochastic models. Unlike deterministic steady states, stationary distributions capturing inherent fluctuations of reactions are extremely difficult to derive analytically due to the curse of dimensionality. Here, we develop a method to derive analytic stationary distributions from deterministic steady states by transforming BRNs to have a special dynamic property, called complex balancing. Specifically, we merge nodes and edges of BRNs to match in- and out-flows of each node. This allows us to derive the stationary distributions of a large class of BRNs, including autophosphorylation networks of EGFR, PAK1, and Aurora B kinase and a genetic toggle switch. This reveals the unique properties of their stochastic dynamics such as robustness, sensitivity, and multi-modality. Importantly, we provide a user-friendly computational package, CASTANET, that automatically derives symbolic expressions of the stationary distributions of BRNs to understand their long-term stochasticity.