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Establishing freedom from disease is a key component of surveillance and may have direct consequences for trade and economy. Transboundary populations pose challenges in terms of variable legislation, efforts, and data availability between countries, often limiting surveillance efficiency. Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is a contagious prion disease of cervids. The long incubation period and slow initial epidemic growth make it notoriously difficult to detect CWD in the early phase of an epidemic. The recent emergence of CWD in wild reindeer in Norway poses a threat to approximately 250,000 semi-domesticated reindeer in Norway and 250,000 in Sweden, including transboundary populations. Here, we provide a first analysis of surveillance data (2016-2022) from all reindeer districts in Norway and Sweden to determine the probability of freedom from CWD infection. During the six years, 6017 semi-domesticated reindeer were tested in Sweden and 51,974 in Norway. Most samples came from healthy slaughtered animals (low risk). Reindeer use large and remote areas and (high risk) samples from fallen stock and animals with clinical signs were difficult to obtain. A scenario tree model was run for seven different set of values for the input parameters (design prevalence within and between districts, probability of introduction, and relative risks) to determine the effect on surveillance sensitivity. At the national level, the mean probability of disease freedom was 59.0â¯% in Sweden and 87.0â¯% in Norway by 2021. The most marked effect on sensitivity was varying the design prevalence both within and between districts. Uncertainty about relative risk ratios affected sensitivity for Sweden more than for Norway, due to the higher proportion of animals in the high-risk group in the former (13.8â¯% vs. 2.1â¯%, respectively). A probability of disease freedom of 90â¯% or higher was reached in 8.2â¯% of the 49 districts in Sweden and 43.5â¯% of the 46 districts in Norway for a design prevalence of 0.5â¯%. The probability of freedom remained below 60â¯% in 29 districts (59.2â¯%) in Sweden and 10 districts (21.7â¯%) in Norway. At the national level, only Norway had a sufficiently large number of samples to reach a probability of more than 95â¯% of disease freedom within a period of 10 years. Our cross-border assessment forms an important knowledge base for designing future surveillance efforts depending on the spatial pattern of prevalence of CWD and risk of spread.
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Reno , Enfermedad Debilitante Crónica , Animales , Noruega/epidemiología , Suecia/epidemiología , Enfermedad Debilitante Crónica/epidemiología , PrevalenciaRESUMEN
A wide variety of control and surveillance programmes that are designed and implemented based on country-specific conditions exists for infectious cattle diseases that are not regulated. This heterogeneity renders difficult the comparison of probabilities of freedom from infection estimated from collected surveillance data. The objectives of this review were to outline the methodological and epidemiological considerations for the estimation of probabilities of freedom from infection from surveillance information and review state-of-the-art methods estimating the probabilities of freedom from infection from heterogeneous surveillance data. Substantiating freedom from infection consists in quantifying the evidence of absence from the absence of evidence. The quantification usually consists in estimating the probability of observing no positive test result, in a given sample, assuming that the infection is present at a chosen (low) prevalence, called the design prevalence. The usual surveillance outputs are the sensitivity of surveillance and the probability of freedom from infection. A variety of factors influencing the choice of a method are presented; disease prevalence context, performance of the tests used, risk factors of infection, structure of the surveillance programme and frequency of testing. The existing methods for estimating the probability of freedom from infection are scenario trees, Bayesian belief networks, simulation methods, Bayesian prevalence estimation methods and the STOC free model. Scenario trees analysis is the current reference method for proving freedom from infection and is widely used in countries that claim freedom. Bayesian belief networks and simulation methods are considered extensions of scenario trees. They can be applied to more complex surveillance schemes and represent complex infection dynamics. Bayesian prevalence estimation methods and the STOC free model allow freedom from infection estimation at the herd-level from longitudinal surveillance data, considering risk factor information and the structure of the population. Comparison of surveillance outputs from heterogeneous surveillance programmes for estimating the probability of freedom from infection is a difficult task. This paper is a 'guide towards substantiating freedom from infection' that describes both all assumptions-limitations and available methods that can be applied in different settings.
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Transmissible spongiform encephalopathies or prion diseases comprise diseases with different levels of contagiousness under natural conditions. The hypothesis has been raised that the chronic wasting disease (CWD) cases detected in Nordic moose (Alces alces) may be less contagious, or not contagious between live animals under field conditions. This study aims to investigate the epidemiology of CWD cases detected in moose in Norway, Sweden and Finland using surveillance data from 2016 to 2022.In total, 18 CWD cases were detected in Nordic moose. All moose were positive for prion (PrPres) detection in the brain, but negative in lymph nodes, all were old (mean 16 years; range 12-20) and all except one, were female. Age appeared to be a strong risk factor, and the sex difference may be explained by few males reaching high age due to hunting targeting calves, yearlings and males.The cases were geographically scattered, distributed over 15 municipalities. However, three cases were detected in each of two areas, Selbu in Norway and Arjeplog-Arvidsjaur in Sweden. A Monte Carlo simulation approach was applied to investigate the likelihood of such clustering occurring by chance, given the assumption of a non-contagious disease. The empirical P-value for obtaining three cases in one Norwegian municipality was less than 0.05, indicating clustering. However, the moose in Selbu were affected by different CWD strains, and over a 6 year period with intensive surveillance, the apparent prevalence decreased, which would not be expected for an ongoing outbreak of CWD. Likewise, the three cases in Arjeplog-Arvidsjaur could also indicate clustering, but management practices promotes a larger proportion of old females and the detection of the first CWD case contributed to increased awareness and sampling.The results of our study show that the CWD cases detected so far in Nordic moose have a different epidemiology compared to CWD cases reported from North America and in Norwegian reindeer (Rangifer tarandus tarandus). The results support the hypothesis that these cases are less contagious or not contagious between live animals under field conditions. To enable differentiation from other types of CWD, we support the use of sporadic CWD (sCWD) among the names already in use.
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Ciervos , Enfermedad Debilitante Crónica , Femenino , Masculino , Animales , Estudios Epidemiológicos , Encéfalo , Análisis por ConglomeradosRESUMEN
BackgroundCampylobacter is a leading cause of food and waterborne illness. Monitoring and modelling Campylobacter at chicken broiler farms, combined with weather pattern surveillance, can aid nowcasting of human gastrointestinal (GI) illness outbreaks. Near real-time sharing of data and model results with health authorities can help increase potential outbreak responsiveness.AimsTo leverage data on weather and Campylobacter on broiler farms to build a risk model for possible human Campylobacter outbreaks and to communicate risk assessments with health authorities.MethodsWe developed a spatio-temporal random effects model for weekly GI illness consultations in Norwegian municipalities with Campylobacter monitoring and weather data from week 30 2010 to 11 2022 to give 1-week nowcasts of GI illness outbreaks. The approach combined a municipality random effects baseline model for seasonally-adjusted GI illness with a second model for peak deviations from that baseline. Model results are communicated to national and local stakeholders through an interactive website: Sykdomspulsen One Health.ResultsLagged temperature and precipitation covariates, as well as 2-week-lagged positive Campylobacter sampling in broilers, were associated with higher levels of GI consultations. Significant inter-municipality variability in outbreak nowcasts were observed.ConclusionsCampylobacter surveillance in broilers can be useful in GI illness outbreak nowcasting. Surveillance of Campylobacter along potential pathways from the environment to illness such as via water system monitoring may improve nowcasting. A One Health system that communicates near real-time surveillance data and nowcast changes in risk to health professionals facilitates the prevention of Campylobacter outbreaks and reduces impact on human health.
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Infecciones por Campylobacter , Campylobacter , Salud Única , Animales , Humanos , Pollos , Brotes de Enfermedades/veterinaria , Infecciones por Campylobacter/epidemiología , Infecciones por Campylobacter/veterinariaRESUMEN
[This corrects the article DOI: 10.3389/fvets.2021.688078.].
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Reindeer pastoralism is a widespread practise across Fennoscandia and Russia. An outbreak of chronic wasting disease (CWD) among wild reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) poses a severe threat to the semi-domestic reindeer herding culture. Establishing surveillance is therefore key, but current models for surveillance of CWD are designed for wild cervids and rely on samples obtained from recreational hunters. Targeting animal groups with a higher infection probability is often used for more efficient disease surveillance. CWD has a long incubation period of 2-3 years, and the animals show clinical signs in the later stages of the infection i.e. 1-4 months prior to death. The semi-domestic reindeer are free-ranging most of the year, but during slaughtering in late fall, herders stress the animals in penned areas. This allows removal of animals with deviant behaviour or physical appearance, and such removals are likely to include animals in the clinical stages of CWD if the population is infected. In Norway, the semi-domestic reindeer in Filefjell is adjacent to a previously CWD infected wild population. We developed a risk-based surveillance method for this semi-domestic setting to establish the probability of freedom from infection over time, or enable early disease detection and mitigation. The surveillance scheme with a scenario tree using three risk categories (sample category, demographic group, and deviations in behaviour or physical appearance) was more effective and less invasive as compared to the surveillance method developed for wild reindeer. We also simulated how variation in susceptibility, incubation period and time for onset of clinical signs (linked to variation in the prion protein gene, PRNP) would potentially affect surveillance. Surveillance for CWD was mandatory within EU-member states with reindeer (2018-2020). The diversity of management systems and epidemiological settings will require the development of a set of surveillance systems suitable for each different context. Our surveillance model is designed for a population with a high risk of CWD introduction requiring massive sampling, while at the same time aiming to limit adverse effects to the populations in areas of surveillance.
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Monitoreo Epidemiológico/veterinaria , Priones , Reno , Enfermedad Debilitante Crónica , Animales , Noruega , Proteínas Priónicas , Enfermedad Debilitante Crónica/diagnóstico , Enfermedad Debilitante Crónica/epidemiologíaRESUMEN
Some European countries have successfully implemented country-specific control programs (CPs) for infectious cattle diseases that are not regulated or are regulated only to a limited extent at the European Union (EU) level. Examples of such diseases include bovine viral diarrhea (BVD), infectious bovine rhinotracheitis (IBR), and Johne's disease (JD). The CPs vary between countries in the design and quality of collected data as well as methods used to detect infection and estimate prevalence or probability of freedom from infection. Differences in disease status between countries and non-standardized approaches to assess freedom from infection pose a risk for countries with CPs for non-regulated diseases as infected animals may influence the progress of the disease control or eradication program. The implementation of output-based standards allows estimation and comparison of the probability of freedom for non-regulated cattle diseases in European countries. The aim of the current study was to assess the existence and quality of data that could be used for estimating freedom from infection in European countries. The online data collection tool was sent to 32 countries participating in the SOUND control COST Action and was completed by 24 countries. Data on cattle demographics and data from CPs of IBR and BVD exist in more than 50% of the response countries. However, data describing risk factors and CP of JD was reported as existing in <25% of the countries. The overall quality of data in the sections on demographics and CPs of IBR and BVD were evaluated as "good", but risk factors and JD data were mostly evaluated as "fair." Data quality was considered less good mainly due to two quality criteria: accessibility and accuracy. The results of this study show that the quantity and quality of data about cattle populations and CPs are relatively similar in many surveyed countries. The outcome of this work provides an overview of the current situation in the European countries regarding data on EU non-regulated cattle diseases and will further assist in the development and implementation of output-based standards.
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The COST action "Standardising output-based surveillance to control non-regulated diseases of cattle in the European Union (SOUND control)," aims to harmonise the results of surveillance and control programmes (CPs) for non-EU regulated cattle diseases to facilitate safe trade and improve overall control of cattle infectious diseases. In this paper we aimed to provide an overview on the diversity of control for these diseases in Europe. A non-EU regulated cattle disease was defined as an infectious disease of cattle with no or limited control at EU level, which is not included in the European Union Animal health law Categories A or B under Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2020/2002. A CP was defined as surveillance and/or intervention strategies designed to lower the incidence, prevalence, mortality or prove freedom from a specific disease in a region or country. Passive surveillance, and active surveillance of breeding bulls under Council Directive 88/407/EEC were not considered as CPs. A questionnaire was designed to obtain country-specific information about CPs for each disease. Animal health experts from 33 European countries completed the questionnaire. Overall, there are 23 diseases for which a CP exists in one or more of the countries studied. The diseases for which CPs exist in the highest number of countries are enzootic bovine leukosis, bluetongue, infectious bovine rhinotracheitis, bovine viral diarrhoea and anthrax (CPs reported by between 16 and 31 countries). Every participating country has on average, 6 CPs (min-max: 1-13) in place. Most programmes are implemented at a national level (86%) and are applied to both dairy and non-dairy cattle (75%). Approximately one-third of the CPs are voluntary, and the funding structure is divided between government and private resources. Countries that have eradicated diseases like enzootic bovine leukosis, bluetongue, infectious bovine rhinotracheitis and bovine viral diarrhoea have implemented CPs for other diseases to further improve the health status of cattle in their country. The control of non-EU regulated cattle diseases is very heterogenous in Europe. Therefore, the standardising of the outputs of these programmes to enable comparison represents a challenge.
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The successful mitigation of emerging wildlife diseases may involve controversial host culling. For livestock, 'preemptive host culling' is an accepted practice involving the removal of herds with known contact to infected populations. When applied to wildlife, this proactive approach comes in conflict with biodiversity conservation goals. Here, we present an alternative approach of 'proactive hunting surveillance' with the aim of early disease detection that simultaneously avoids undesirable population decline by targeting demographic groups with (1) a higher likelihood of being infected and (2) a lower reproductive value. We applied this harvesting principle to populations of reindeer to substantiate freedom of chronic wasting disease (CWD) infection. Proactive hunting surveillance reached 99% probability of freedom from infection (<4 reindeer infected) within 3-5 years, in comparison to ~10 years using ordinary harvest surveillance. However, implementation uncertainties linked to social issues appear challenging also with this kind of host culling.
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Sacrificio de Animales/métodos , Animales Salvajes , Conservación de los Recursos Naturales/métodos , Monitoreo Epidemiológico/veterinaria , Reno , Enfermedad Debilitante Crónica/diagnóstico , Factores de Edad , Animales , Simulación por Computador , Femenino , Masculino , Modelos Estadísticos , Dinámica Poblacional , Factores Sexuales , Enfermedad Debilitante Crónica/prevención & control , Enfermedad Debilitante Crónica/transmisiónRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Culicoides biting midges transmit viruses resulting in disease in ruminants and equids such as bluetongue, Schmallenberg disease and African horse sickness. In the past decades, these diseases have led to important economic losses for farmers in Europe. Vector abundance is a key factor in determining the risk of vector-borne disease spread and it is, therefore, important to predict the abundance of Culicoides species involved in the transmission of these pathogens. The objectives of this study were to model and map the monthly abundances of Culicoides in Europe. METHODS: We obtained entomological data from 904 farms in nine European countries (Spain, France, Germany, Switzerland, Austria, Poland, Denmark, Sweden and Norway) from 2007 to 2013. Using environmental and climatic predictors from satellite imagery and the machine learning technique Random Forests, we predicted the monthly average abundance at a 1 km2 resolution. We used independent test sets for validation and to assess model performance. RESULTS: The predictive power of the resulting models varied according to month and the Culicoides species/ensembles predicted. Model performance was lower for winter months. Performance was higher for the Obsoletus ensemble, followed by the Pulicaris ensemble, while the model for Culicoides imicola showed a poor performance. Distribution and abundance patterns corresponded well with the known distributions in Europe. The Random Forests model approach was able to distinguish differences in abundance between countries but was not able to predict vector abundance at individual farm level. CONCLUSIONS: The models and maps presented here represent an initial attempt to capture large scale geographical and temporal variations in Culicoides abundance. The models are a first step towards producing abundance inputs for R0 modelling of Culicoides-borne infections at a continental scale.
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Ceratopogonidae , Aprendizaje Automático , Dinámica Poblacional , Animales , Ceratopogonidae/virología , Clima , Ecosistema , Europa (Continente) , Granjas , Insectos Vectores/virología , Modelos Teóricos , Estaciones del AñoRESUMEN
The emergence of CWD in Europe in 2016 and the first natural infection in wild reindeer warranted disease management. This led to the testing of 2424 hunted or culled reindeer during 2016-2018, from the infected subpopulation in the Nordfjella mountain range in Southern Norway. To identify any association between PRNP variation and CWD susceptibility, we characterized the open reading frame of the PRNP gene in 19 CWD positive reindeer and in 101 age category- and sex-matched CWD negative controls. Seven variant positions were identified: 6 single nucleotide variants (SNVs) and a 24 base pair (bp) deletion located between nucleotide position 238 and 272, encoding four instead of five octapeptide repeats. With a single exception, all variant positions but one were predicted to be non-synonymous. The synonymous SNV and the deletion are novel in reindeer. Various combinations of the non-synonymous variant positions resulted in the identification of five PRNP alleles (A-E) that structured into 14 genotypes. We identified an increased CWD risk in reindeer carrying two copies of the most common allele, A, coding for serine in position 225 (Ser225) and in those carrying allele A together with the 24 bp deletion.
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Variación Genética , Proteínas Priónicas/genética , Reno/genética , Enfermedad Debilitante Crónica/genética , Animales , Línea Celular Tumoral , Frecuencia de los Genes/genética , Estudios de Asociación Genética , Predisposición Genética a la Enfermedad , Geografía , Humanos , Noruega , Sistemas de Lectura Abierta , Proteínas Priónicas/metabolismo , Factores de RiesgoRESUMEN
Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is a fatal contagious prion disease naturally occurring in cervids in North America. In 2016, CWD was detected in wild reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) and moose (Alces alces) in Norway. Here, we report the first known naturally infected wild Norwegian red deer (Cervus elaphus).
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Ciervos , Enfermedad Debilitante Crónica/epidemiología , Animales , Encéfalo/patología , Femenino , Noruega/epidemiología , Priones/aislamiento & purificación , Enfermedad Debilitante Crónica/patologíaRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Biting midges of the genus Culicoides (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) are small hematophagous insects responsible for the transmission of bluetongue virus, Schmallenberg virus and African horse sickness virus to wild and domestic ruminants and equids. Outbreaks of these viruses have caused economic damage within the European Union. The spatio-temporal distribution of biting midges is a key factor in identifying areas with the potential for disease spread. The aim of this study was to identify and map areas of neglectable adult activity for each month in an average year. Average monthly risk maps can be used as a tool when allocating resources for surveillance and control programs within Europe. METHODS: We modelled the occurrence of C. imicola and the Obsoletus and Pulicaris ensembles using existing entomological surveillance data from Spain, France, Germany, Switzerland, Austria, Denmark, Sweden, Norway and Poland. The monthly probability of each vector species and ensembles being present in Europe based on climatic and environmental input variables was estimated with the machine learning technique Random Forest. Subsequently, the monthly probability was classified into three classes: Absence, Presence and Uncertain status. These three classes are useful for mapping areas of no risk, areas of high-risk targeted for animal movement restrictions, and areas with an uncertain status that need active entomological surveillance to determine whether or not vectors are present. RESULTS: The distribution of Culicoides species ensembles were in agreement with their previously reported distribution in Europe. The Random Forest models were very accurate in predicting the probability of presence for C. imicola (mean AUC = 0.95), less accurate for the Obsoletus ensemble (mean AUC = 0.84), while the lowest accuracy was found for the Pulicaris ensemble (mean AUC = 0.71). The most important environmental variables in the models were related to temperature and precipitation for all three groups. CONCLUSIONS: The duration periods with low or null adult activity can be derived from the associated monthly distribution maps, and it was also possible to identify and map areas with uncertain predictions. In the absence of ongoing vector surveillance, these maps can be used by veterinary authorities to classify areas as likely vector-free or as likely risk areas from southern Spain to northern Sweden with acceptable precision. The maps can also focus costly entomological surveillance to seasons and areas where the predictions and vector-free status remain uncertain.
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Ceratopogonidae/fisiología , Distribución Animal , Animales , Ceratopogonidae/clasificación , Ceratopogonidae/genética , Ecosistema , Ambiente , Europa (Continente) , Femenino , Masculino , Dinámica Poblacional , Estaciones del Año , Factores de TiempoRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Biting midges of the genus Culicoides (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) are vectors of bluetongue virus (BTV), African horse sickness virus and Schmallenberg virus (SBV). Outbreaks of both BTV and SBV have affected large parts of Europe. The spread of these diseases depends largely on vector distribution and abundance. The aim of this analysis was to identify and quantify major spatial patterns and temporal trends in the distribution and seasonal variation of observed Culicoides abundance in nine countries in Europe. METHODS: We gathered existing Culicoides data from Spain, France, Germany, Switzerland, Austria, Denmark, Sweden, Norway and Poland. In total, 31,429 Culicoides trap collections were available from 904 ruminant farms across these countries between 2007 and 2013. RESULTS: The Obsoletus ensemble was distributed widely in Europe and accounted for 83% of all 8,842,998 Culicoides specimens in the dataset, with the highest mean monthly abundance recorded in France, Germany and southern Norway. The Pulicaris ensemble accounted for only 12% of the specimens and had a relatively southerly and easterly spatial distribution compared to the Obsoletus ensemble. Culicoides imicola Kieffer was only found in Spain and the southernmost part of France. There was a clear spatial trend in the accumulated annual abundance from southern to northern Europe, with the Obsoletus ensemble steadily increasing from 4000 per year in southern Europe to 500,000 in Scandinavia. The Pulicaris ensemble showed a very different pattern, with an increase in the accumulated annual abundance from 1600 in Spain, peaking at 41,000 in northern Germany and then decreasing again toward northern latitudes. For the two species ensembles and C. imicola, the season began between January and April, with later start dates and increasingly shorter vector seasons at more northerly latitudes. CONCLUSION: We present the first maps of seasonal Culicoides abundance in large parts of Europe covering a gradient from southern Spain to northern Scandinavia. The identified temporal trends and spatial patterns are useful for planning the allocation of resources for international prevention and surveillance programmes in the European Union.
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Ceratopogonidae , Insectos Vectores , Enfermedad Equina Africana/transmisión , Animales , Lengua Azul/transmisión , Ceratopogonidae/clasificación , Europa (Continente) , Granjas , Geografía , Insectos Vectores/clasificación , Densidad de Población , Dinámica Poblacional , Rumiantes , Estaciones del Año , Especificidad de la EspecieRESUMEN
In 2008, virulent footrot was detected in sheep in south-west Norway. Footrot is caused by Dichelobacter nodosus, and the outbreak was linked to live sheep imported from Denmark in 2005. A large-scale program for eradicating the disease was implemented as a joint industry and governmental driven eradication project in the years 2008-2014, and continued with surveillance and control measures by the Norwegian Food Safety Authority from 2015. The cost of the eradication program including surveillance and control measures until 2032 was assumed to reach approximately 10.8 million (NOK 90 million). A financial cost-benefit analysis, comparing costs in the eradication program with costs in two simulated scenarios, was carried out. In the scenarios, designated ModerateSpread (baseline) and SlowSpread, it was assumed that the sheep farmers would undertake some voluntary measures on their own that would slow the spread of the disease. The program obtained a positive NPV after approximately 12 years. In a stochastic analysis, the probabilities of a positive NPV were estimated to 1.000 and to 0.648 after 15 years and to 0.378 and 0.016 after ten years, for the ModerateSpread and SlowSpread scenarios respectively. A rapid start-up of the program soon after the detection of the disease was considered crucial for the economic success as the disease would have become more widespread and probably raised the costs considerably at a later start-up.
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Control de Enfermedades Transmisibles/economía , Panadizo Interdigital/economía , Panadizo Interdigital/prevención & control , Infecciones por Bacterias Gramnegativas/veterinaria , Enfermedades de las Ovejas/economía , Enfermedades de las Ovejas/prevención & control , Animales , Control de Enfermedades Transmisibles/métodos , Análisis Costo-Beneficio , Dinamarca , Dichelobacter nodosus/aislamiento & purificación , Brotes de Enfermedades/economía , Brotes de Enfermedades/prevención & control , Panadizo Interdigital/transmisión , Infecciones por Bacterias Gramnegativas/economía , Infecciones por Bacterias Gramnegativas/prevención & control , Infecciones por Bacterias Gramnegativas/transmisión , Seguro/economía , Modelos Econométricos , Noruega , Vigilancia de Guardia/veterinaria , Ovinos , Enfermedades de las Ovejas/transmisión , Procesos EstocásticosRESUMEN
In order to facilitate foodborne outbreak investigations there is a need to improve the methods for identifying the food products that should be sampled for laboratory analysis. The aim of this study was to examine the applicability of a likelihood ratio approach previously developed on simulated data, to real outbreak data. We used human case and food product distribution data from the Norwegian enterohaemorrhagic Escherichia coli outbreak in 2006. The approach was adjusted to include time, space smoothing and to handle missing or misclassified information. The performance of the adjusted likelihood ratio approach on the data originating from the HUS outbreak and control data indicates that the adjusted approach is promising and indicates that the adjusted approach could be a useful tool to assist and facilitate the investigation of food borne outbreaks in the future if good traceability are available and implemented in the distribution chain. However, the approach needs to be further validated on other outbreak data and also including other food products than meat products in order to make a more general conclusion of the applicability of the developed approach.
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Brotes de Enfermedades , Infecciones por Escherichia coli/epidemiología , Contaminación de Alimentos , Enfermedades Transmitidas por los Alimentos/epidemiología , Productos de la Carne , HumanosRESUMEN
When severe footrot was detected in Norway in 2008, a surveillance programme was initiated and followed by an elimination programme. By 2013 the disease had spread to two of 19 counties and a total of 119 (1%) sheep flocks had been diagnosed with severe footrot. A simulation model was developed to estimate the potential spread of severe footrot in Norway and to estimate the relative importance of the different spreading routes. The model parameters were based on the rate of spread of the first 38 diagnosed cases and the management and climatic factors particular for Norway. The model showed that by 2013, severe footrot would have spread to six counties and infected 16% of the sheep flocks if no elimination programme had been initiated. If this is compared with the 1% of flocks that were diagnosed in Norway by 2013, there seems to be a large effect of the implemented footrot elimination programme. By 2035, it was estimated that severe footrot would have spread to 16 counties and 64% of the sheep flocks. Such an extensive spread would probably impose a large negative impact on the sheep industry and welfare of the sheep. The most effective way to curb the spread of severe footrot was by decreasing the within county infection rate. This could be achieved by decreasing the contact between flocks or by decreasing the environmental load of D. nodosus, for example by footbathing sheep, culling diseased sheep or eliminating severe footrot in the flock.
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Dichelobacter nodosus/fisiología , Panadizo Interdigital/transmisión , Infecciones por Bacterias Gramnegativas/veterinaria , Enfermedades de las Ovejas/transmisión , Animales , Clima , Simulación por Computador , Panadizo Interdigital/microbiología , Panadizo Interdigital/prevención & control , Infecciones por Bacterias Gramnegativas/microbiología , Infecciones por Bacterias Gramnegativas/prevención & control , Infecciones por Bacterias Gramnegativas/transmisión , Modelos Teóricos , Noruega , Ovinos , Enfermedades de las Ovejas/microbiología , Enfermedades de las Ovejas/prevención & controlRESUMEN
Disease caused by Bovine virus diarrhoea virus (BVDV) is notifiable in Norway. An eradication programme started in 1992. The number of herds with restrictions decreased from 2950 in 1994 to zero at the end of 2006. From 2007, the aim of the programme has been surveillance in order to document freedom from the infection. To estimate the probability of freedom from BVDV infection in the Norwegian cattle population by the end of 2011, a scenario tree model of the surveillance program during the years 2007-2011 was used. Three surveillance system components (SSCs) were included in the model: dairy, beef suckler sampled at farms (2007-2010) and beef suckler sampled at slaughterhouses (2011). The design prevalence was set to 0.2% at herd level and to 30% at within-herd level for the whole cattle population. The median probability of freedom from BVDV in Norway at the end of 2011 was 0.996; (0.995-0.997, credibility interval). The results from the scenario tree model support that the Norwegian cattle population is free from BVDV. The highest estimate of the annual sensitivity for the beef suckling SSCs originated from the surveillance at the slaughterhouses in 2011. The change to sampling at the slaughterhouse level further increased the sensitivity of the surveillance.
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Diarrea Mucosa Bovina Viral/epidemiología , Enfermedades de los Bovinos/epidemiología , Virus de la Diarrea Viral Bovina/fisiología , Modelos Teóricos , Crianza de Animales Domésticos , Animales , Diarrea Mucosa Bovina Viral/virología , Bovinos , Enfermedades de los Bovinos/virología , Femenino , Masculino , Noruega/epidemiología , Prevalencia , Teoría de la ProbabilidadRESUMEN
In 2008, ovine footrot was detected in Norway for the first time since 1948. By December 2012 it had spread to 99 flocks, all in the county of Rogaland in the south west of Norway, and 42% of which were located in the municipality of Rennesøy in Rogaland. The aim of this study was to investigate risk factors for contracting severe footrot in flocks of sheep. A flock was considered positive for severe footrot based on positive virulence test or by clinical signs in addition to a positive PCR test. A retrospective longitudinal study was performed with a questionnaire as the main data source. All sheep farmers (107) in the municipality of Rennesøy were selected for inclusion in the study. The questions focused on direct and indirect contacts between sheep in different sheep flocks and general information about the farm. The questions covered the years 2007-2011. Data were analysed using discrete time survival modelling. A total of 81 (76%) farmers responded to the questionnaire including 29 of 41 (71%) farmers with flocks positive for severe footrot. Factors that increased the risk of a flock becoming positive for severe footrot in the final multivariable survival model were sheep that trespassed boundary fences and came into contact with a flock positive for severe footrot (odds ratio 11.5, 95% confidence interval 4.1-32.2) and at least one flock with severe footrot within 0-1km radius of a farm (odds ratio 8.6, 95% confidence interval 2.3-32.6). This study highlights the importance of upgrading and maintaining boundary fences and encouraging farmers to avoid direct and indirect contact between nearby flocks.
Asunto(s)
Panadizo Interdigital/microbiología , Pezuñas y Garras/microbiología , Enfermedades de las Ovejas/microbiología , Animales , Panadizo Interdigital/epidemiología , Modelos Logísticos , Estudios Longitudinales , Análisis Multivariante , Noruega , Estudios Retrospectivos , Factores de Riesgo , Ovinos , Enfermedades de las Ovejas/epidemiología , Encuestas y CuestionariosRESUMEN
The investigation of an outbreak of hemorrhagic-uremic syndrome in Norway in 2006 indicated that the outbreak strain Escherichia coli O103:H25 could originate from sheep. A national survey of the Norwegian sheep population was performed, with the aim of identifying and describing a possible reservoir of potentially human-pathogenic E. coli O103, in particular of the H types 2 and 25. The investigation of fecal samples from 585 sheep flocks resulted in 1,222 E. coli O103 isolates that were analyzed for the presence of eae and stx genes, while a subset of 369 isolates was further examined for flagellar antigens (H typing), stx subtypes, bfpA, astA, and molecular typing by pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE). The total ovine E. coli O103 serogroup was genetically diverse by numbers of H types, virulotypes, and PFGE banding patterns identified, although a tendency of clustering toward serotypes was seen. The flocks positive for potentially human-pathogenic E. coli O103 were geographically widely distributed, and no association could be found with county or geographical region. The survey showed that eae-negative, stx-negative E. coli O103, probably nonpathogenic to humans, is very common in sheep, with 27.5% of flocks positive. Moreover, the study documented a low prevalence (0.7%) of potentially human-pathogenic Shiga toxin-producing E. coli O103:H2, while STEC O103:H25 was not detected. However, 3.1% and 5.8% of the flocks were positive for enteropathogenic E. coli O103 belonging to H types 2 and 25, respectively. These isolates are of concern as potential human pathogens by themselves but more importantly as possible precursors for human-pathogenic STEC.