Monthly Global Estimates of Fine Particulate Matter and Their Uncertainty.

Annual global satellite-based estimates of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) are widely relied upon for air-quality assessment. Here, we develop and apply a methodology for monthly estimates and uncertainties during the period 1998-2019, which combines satellite retrievals of aerosol optical depth, chemical transport modeling, and ground-based measurements to allow for the characterization of seasonal and episodic exposure, as well as aid air-quality management. Many densely populated regions have their highest PM2.5 concentrations in winter, exceeding summertime concentrations by factors of 1.5-3.0 over Eastern Europe, Western Europe, South Asia, and East Asia. In South Asia, in January, regional population-weighted monthly mean PM2.5 concentrations exceed 90 µg/m3, with local concentrations of approximately 200 µg/m3 for parts of the Indo-Gangetic Plain. In East Asia, monthly mean PM2.5 concentrations have decreased over the period 2010-2019 by 1.6-2.6 µg/m3/year, with decreases beginning 2-3 years earlier in summer than in winter. We find evidence that global-monitored locations tend to be in cleaner regions than global mean PM2.5 exposure, with large measurement gaps in the Global South. Uncertainty estimates exhibit regional consistency with observed differences between ground-based and satellite-derived PM2.5. The evaluation of uncertainty for agglomerated values indicates that hybrid PM2.5 estimates provide precise regional-scale representation, with residual uncertainty inversely proportional to the sample size.

Effects of COVID-19 lockdowns on fine particulate matter concentrations.

Lockdowns during the COVID-19 pandemic provide an unprecedented opportunity to examine the effects of human activity on air quality. The effects on fine particulate matter (PM2.5) are of particular interest, as PM2.5 is the leading environmental risk factor for mortality globally. We map global PM2.5 concentrations for January to April 2020 with a focus on China, Europe, and North America using a combination of satellite data, simulation, and ground-based observations. We examine PM2.5 concentrations during lockdown periods in 2020 compared to the same periods in 2018 to 2019. We find changes in population-weighted mean PM2.5 concentrations during the lockdowns of -11 to -15 µg/m3 across China, +1 to -2 µg/m3 across Europe, and 0 to -2 µg/m3 across North America. We explain these changes through a combination of meteorology and emission reductions, mostly due to transportation. This work demonstrates regional differences in the sensitivity of PM2.5 to emission sources.

Global Estimates and Long-Term Trends of Fine Particulate Matter Concentrations (1998-2018).

Exposure to outdoor fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is a leading risk factor for mortality. We develop global estimates of annual PM2.5 concentrations and trends for 1998-2018 using advances in satellite observations, chemical transport modeling, and ground-based monitoring. Aerosol optical depths (AODs) from advanced satellite products including finer resolution, increased global coverage, and improved long-term stability are combined and related to surface PM2.5 concentrations using geophysical relationships between surface PM2.5 and AOD simulated by the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model with updated algorithms. The resultant annual mean geophysical PM2.5 estimates are highly consistent with globally distributed ground monitors (R2 = 0.81; slope = 0.90). Geographically weighted regression is applied to the geophysical PM2.5 estimates to predict and account for the residual bias with PM2.5 monitors, yielding even higher cross validated agreement (R2 = 0.90-0.92; slope = 0.90-0.97) with ground monitors and improved agreement compared to all earlier global estimates. The consistent long-term satellite AOD and simulation enable trend assessment over a 21 year period, identifying significant trends for eastern North America (-0.28 ± 0.03 µg/m3/yr), Europe (-0.15 ± 0.03 µg/m3/yr), India (1.13 ± 0.15 µg/m3/yr), and globally (0.04 ± 0.02 µg/m3/yr). The positive trend (2.44 ± 0.44 µg/m3/yr) for India over 2005-2013 and the negative trend (-3.37 ± 0.38 µg/m3/yr) for China over 2011-2018 are remarkable, with implications for the health of billions of people.

AERONET-based nonspherical dust optical models and effects on the VIIRS Deep Blue/SOAR over-water aerosol product.

Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET)-based nonspherical dust optical models are developed and applied to the Satellite Ocean Aerosol Retrieval (SOAR) algorithm as part of the Version 1 Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) NASA 'Deep Blue' aerosol data product suite. The optical models are created using Version 2 AERONET inversion data at six distinct sites influenced frequently by dust aerosols from different source regions. The same spheroid shape distribution as used in the AERONET inversion algorithm is assumed to account for the nonspherical characteristics of mineral dust, which ensures the consistency between the bulk scattering properties of the developed optical models with the AERONET-retrieved microphysical and optical properties. For the Version 1 SOAR aerosol product, the dust optical models representative for Capo Verde site are used, considering the strong influence of Saharan dust over the global ocean in terms of amount and spatial coverage. Comparisons of the VIIRS-retrieved aerosol optical properties against AERONET direct-Sun observations at three island/coastal sites suggest that the use of nonspherical dust optical models significantly improves the retrievals of aerosol optical depth (AOD) and Ångström exponent by mitigating the well-known artifact of scattering angle dependence of the variables observed when incorrectly assuming spherical dust. The resulting removal of these artifacts results in a more natural spatial pattern of AOD along the transport path of Saharan dust to the Atlantic Ocean; i.e., AOD decreases with increasing distance transported, whereas the spherical assumption leads to a strong wave pattern due to the spurious scattering angle dependence of AOD.

Global Estimates of Fine Particulate Matter using a Combined Geophysical-Statistical Method with Information from Satellites, Models, and Monitors.

We estimated global fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations using information from satellite-, simulation- and monitor-based sources by applying a Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) to global geophysically based satellite-derived PM2.5 estimates. Aerosol optical depth from multiple satellite products (MISR, MODIS Dark Target, MODIS and SeaWiFS Deep Blue, and MODIS MAIAC) was combined with simulation (GEOS-Chem) based upon their relative uncertainties as determined using ground-based sun photometer (AERONET) observations for 1998-2014. The GWR predictors included simulated aerosol composition and land use information. The resultant PM2.5 estimates were highly consistent (R(2) = 0.81) with out-of-sample cross-validated PM2.5 concentrations from monitors. The global population-weighted annual average PM2.5 concentrations were 3-fold higher than the 10 µg/m(3) WHO guideline, driven by exposures in Asian and African regions. Estimates in regions with high contributions from mineral dust were associated with higher uncertainty, resulting from both sparse ground-based monitoring, and challenging conditions for retrieval and simulation. This approach demonstrates that the addition of even sparse ground-based measurements to more globally continuous PM2.5 data sources can yield valuable improvements to PM2.5 characterization on a global scale.

Evaluating the Height of Biomass Burning Smoke Aerosols Retrieved from Synergistic Use of Multiple Satellite Sensors over Southeast Asia.

This study evaluates the height of biomass burning smoke aerosols retrieved from a combined use of Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS), Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite (OMPS), and Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) observations. The retrieved heights are compared against spaceborne and ground-based lidar measurements during the peak biomass burning season (March and April) over Southeast Asia from 2013 to 2015. Based on the comparison against CALIOP, a quality assurance (QA) procedure is developed. It is found that 74% (81-84%) of the retrieved heights fall within 1 km of CALIOP observations for unfiltered (QA-filtered) data, with root-mean-square error (RMSE) of 1.1 km (0.8-1.0 km). Eliminating the requirement for CALIOP observations from the retrieval process significantly increases the temporal coverage with only a slight decrease in the retrieval accuracy; for best QA data, 64% of data fall within 1 km of CALIOP observations with RMSE of 1.1 km. When compared with Micro-Pulse Lidar Network (MPLNET) measurements deployed at Doi Ang Khang, Thailand, the retrieved heights show RMSE of 1.7 km (1.1 km) for unfiltered (QA-filtered) data for the complete algorithm, and 0.9 km (0.8 km) for the simplified algorithm.

Development and implementation of a remote-sensing and in situ data-assimilating version of CMAQ for operational PM2.5 forecasting. Part 1: MODIS aerosol optical depth (AOD) data-assimilation design and testing.

UNLABELLED: This two-part paper reports on the development, implementation, and improvement of a version of the Community Multi-Scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model that assimilates real-time remotely-sensed aerosol optical depth (AOD) information and ground-based PM2.5 monitor data in routine prognostic application. The model is being used by operational air quality forecasters to help guide their daily issuance of state or local-agency-based air quality alerts (e.g. action days, health advisories). Part 1 describes the development and testing of the initial assimilation capability, which was implemented offline in partnership with NASA and the Visibility Improvement State and Tribal Association of the Southeast (VISTAS) Regional Planning Organization (RPO). In the initial effort, MODIS-derived aerosol optical depth (AOD) data are input into a variational data-assimilation scheme using both the traditional Dark Target and relatively new "Deep Blue" retrieval methods. Evaluation of the developmental offline version, reported in Part 1 here, showed sufficient promise to implement the capability within the online, prognostic operational model described in Part 2. In Part 2, the addition of real-time surface PM2.5 monitoring data to improve the assimilation and an initial evaluation of the prognostic modeling system across the continental United States (CONUS) is presented. IMPLICATIONS: Air quality forecasts are now routinely used to understand when air pollution may reach unhealthy levels. For the first time, an operational air quality forecast model that includes the assimilation of remotely-sensed aerosol optical depth and ground based PM2.5 observations is being used. The assimilation enables quantifiable improvements in model forecast skill, which improves confidence in the accuracy of the officially-issued forecasts. This helps air quality stakeholders be more effective in taking mitigating actions (reducing power consumption, ride-sharing, etc.) and avoiding exposures that could otherwise result in more serious air quality episodes or more deleterious health effects.

Interactions between biomass-burning aerosols and clouds over Southeast Asia: current status, challenges, and perspectives.

The interactions between aerosols, clouds, and precipitation remain among the largest sources of uncertainty in the Earth's energy budget. Biomass-burning aerosols are a key feature of the global aerosol system, with significant annually-repeating fires in several parts of the world, including Southeast Asia (SEA). SEA in particular provides a "natural laboratory" for these studies, as smoke travels from source regions downwind in which it is coupled to persistent stratocumulus decks. However, SEA has been under-exploited for these studies. This review summarizes previous related field campaigns in SEA, with a focus on the ongoing Seven South East Asian Studies (7-SEAS) and results from the most recent BASELInE deployment. Progress from remote sensing and modeling studies, along with the challenges faced for these studies, are also discussed. We suggest that improvements to our knowledge of these aerosol/cloud effects require the synergistic use of field measurements with remote sensing and modeling tools.