Yield and economic losses in maize caused by ambient ozone in the North China Plain (2014-2017).

Maize is the second most important crop per harvested area in the world. The North China Plain (NCP) is a highly populated and relevant agricultural region in China, experiencing some of the highest ozone (O3) concentrations worldwide. It produces ~24% of the total maize production of China in years 2014-2017. For these years, we used observational O3 data in combination with geostatistic methods to estimate county-level production and economic losses due to O3 in the NCP. AOT40 (accumulated ozone exposure over an hourly threshold of 40 ppb) values during the maize growing season (90 days before maturity) progressively increased in the four consecutive years: 13.7 ppm h, 15.4 ppm h, 16.9 ppm h and 22.7 ppm h. Mean relative yield losses were 8.2% in 2014, 9.2% in 2015, 10.4% in 2016 and 13.4% in 2017. These yield losses, derived from exposure-response functions, resulted in crop production losses of 530.3 × 104 t, 617.8 × 104 t, 713.8 × 104 t, and 953.4 × 104 t, as well as economic losses of 2343 million USD, 2672 million USD, 1887 million USD, and 2404 million USD from 2014 to 2017. The NCP is a key area in China for monitoring the effectiveness of the clean air action policies aiming at reducing emissions of air pollutants. Despite these measures, O3 concentrations have increased in NCP, and reduction of this pollutant are challenging. We suggest an increase in the number of rural air quality stations for better characterizing O3 trends in cropland areas, as well as the application of different mitigation measures. They may involve more stringent air quality regulations and changes in crops, breeding tolerant cultivars and a crop management taking into account O3 pollution.

Assessment of O3-induced yield and economic losses for wheat in the North China Plain from 2014 to 2017, China.

Tropospheric ozone (O3) is a pollutant of widespread concern in the world and especially in China for its negative effects on agricultural crops. For the first time, yield and economic losses of wheat between 2014 and 2017 were estimated for the North China Plain (NCP) using observational hourly O3 data from 312 monitoring stations and exposure-response functions based on AOT40 index (accumulated hourly O3 concentration above 40 ppb) from a Chinese study. AOT40 values from 2014 to 2017 during the wheat growing seasons (75-days, 44 before and 30 after mid-anthesis) ranged from 3.1 to 14.9 ppm h, 4.9-17.5 ppm h, 7.3-17.6 ppm h, and 0.5-18.6 ppm h, respectively. The highest AOT40 values were observed in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. The values of relative yield losses from 2014 to 2017 were in the ranges of 6.4-30.5%, 10.0-35.8%, 14.9-34.1%, and 21.6-38.2%, respectively. The total wheat production losses in NCP for 2014-2017 accounted for 18.5%, 22.7%, 26.2% and 30.8% in the whole production, while the economic losses amounted to 6,292 million USD, 8,524 million USD, 10,068 million USD, and 12,404 million USD, respectively. The important impact of O3 in this area, which is of global importance, should be considered when assessing wheat yield production. Our results also show an increasing trend in AOT40, relative yield loss, total crop production loss and economic loss in the four consecutive years.