Ebullition dominates methane emissions in stratified coastal waters.

Coastal areas are an important source of methane (CH4). However, the exact origins of CH4 in the surface waters of coastal regions, which in turn drive sea-air emissions, remain uncertain. To gain a comprehensive understanding of the current and future climate change feedbacks, it is crucial to identify these CH4 sources and processes that regulate its formation and oxidation. This study investigated coastal CH4 dynamics by comparing water column data from six stations located in the brackish Tvärminne Archipelago, Baltic Sea. The sediment biogeochemistry and microbiology were further investigated at two stations (i.e., nearshore and offshore). These stations differed in terms of stratification, bottom water redox conditions, and organic matter loading. At the nearshore station, CH4 diffusion from the sediment into the water column was negligible, because nearly all CH4 was oxidized within the upper sediment column before reaching the sediment surface. On the other hand, at the offshore station, there was significant benthic diffusion of CH4, albeit the majority underwent oxidation before reaching the sediment-water interface, due to shoaling of the sulfate methane transition zone (SMTZ). The potential contribution of CH4 production in the water column was evaluated and was found to be negligible. After examining the isotopic signatures of δ13C-CH4 across the sediment and water column, it became apparent that the surface water δ13C-CH4 values observed in areas with thermal stratification could not be explained by diffusion, advective fluxes, nor production in the water column. In fact, these values bore a remarkable resemblance to those detected below the SMTZ. This supports the hypothesis that the source of CH4 in surface waters is more likely to originate from ebullition than diffusion in stratified brackish coastal systems.

Eutrophication and Deoxygenation Drive High Methane Emissions from a Brackish Coastal System.

Coastal environments are a major source of marine methane in the atmosphere. Eutrophication and deoxygenation have the potential to amplify the coastal methane emissions. Here, we investigate methane dynamics in the eutrophic Stockholm Archipelago. We cover a range of sites with contrasting water column redox conditions and rates of organic matter degradation, with the latter reflected by the depth of the sulfate-methane transition zone (SMTZ) in the sediment. We find the highest benthic release of methane (2.2-8.6 mmol m-2 d-1) at sites where the SMTZ is located close to the sediment-water interface (2-10 cm). A large proportion of methane is removed in the water column via aerobic or anaerobic microbial pathways. At many locations, water column methane is highly depleted in 13C, pointing toward substantial bubble dissolution. Calculated and measured rates of methane release to the atmosphere range from 0.03 to 0.4 mmol m-2 d-1 and from 0.1 to 1.7 mmol m-2 d-1, respectively, with the highest fluxes at locations with a shallow SMTZ and anoxic and sulfidic bottom waters. Taken together, our results show that sites suffering most from both eutrophication and deoxygenation are hotspots of coastal marine methane emissions.

Biotic interactions between benthic infauna and aerobic methanotrophs mediate methane fluxes from coastal sediments.

Coastal ecosystems dominate oceanic methane (CH4) emissions. However, there is limited knowledge about how biotic interactions between infauna and aerobic methanotrophs (i.e. CH4 oxidizing bacteria) drive the spatial-temporal dynamics of these emissions. Here, we investigated the role of meio- and macrofauna in mediating CH4 sediment-water fluxes and aerobic methanotrophic activity that can oxidize significant portions of CH4. We show that macrofauna increases CH4 fluxes by enhancing vertical solute transport through bioturbation, but this effect is somewhat offset by high meiofauna abundance. The increase in CH4 flux reduces CH4 pore-water availability, resulting in lower abundance and activity of aerobic methanotrophs, an effect that counterbalances the potential stimulation of these bacteria by higher oxygen flux to the sediment via bioturbation. These findings indicate that a larger than previously thought portion of CH4 emissions from coastal ecosystems is due to faunal activity and multiple complex interactions with methanotrophs.

Methane emissions offset atmospheric carbon dioxide uptake in coastal macroalgae, mixed vegetation and sediment ecosystems.

Coastal ecosystems can efficiently remove carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere and are thus promoted for nature-based climate change mitigation. Natural methane (CH4) emissions from these ecosystems may counterbalance atmospheric CO2 uptake. Still, knowledge of mechanisms sustaining such CH4 emissions and their contribution to net radiative forcing remains scarce for globally prevalent macroalgae, mixed vegetation, and surrounding depositional sediment habitats. Here we show that these habitats emit CH4 in the range of 0.1 - 2.9 mg CH4 m-2 d-1 to the atmosphere, revealing in situ CH4 emissions from macroalgae that were sustained by divergent methanogenic archaea in anoxic microsites. Over an annual cycle, CO2-equivalent CH4 emissions offset 28 and 35% of the carbon sink capacity attributed to atmospheric CO2 uptake in the macroalgae and mixed vegetation habitats, respectively, and augment net CO2 release of unvegetated sediments by 57%. Accounting for CH4 alongside CO2 sea-air fluxes and identifying the mechanisms controlling these emissions is crucial to constrain the potential of coastal ecosystems as net atmospheric carbon sinks and develop informed climate mitigation strategies.

High spatiotemporal variability of methane concentrations challenges estimates of emissions across vegetated coastal ecosystems.

Coastal methane (CH4 ) emissions dominate the global ocean CH4 budget and can offset the "blue carbon" storage capacity of vegetated coastal ecosystems. However, current estimates lack systematic, high-resolution, and long-term data from these intrinsically heterogeneous environments, making coastal budgets sensitive to statistical assumptions and uncertainties. Using continuous CH4 concentrations, δ13 C-CH4  values, and CH4  sea-air fluxes across four seasons in three globally pervasive coastal habitats, we show that the CH4 distribution is spatially patchy over meter-scales and highly variable in time. Areas with mixed vegetation, macroalgae, and their surrounding sediments exhibited a spatiotemporal variability of surface water CH4 concentrations ranging two orders of magnitude (i.e., 6-460 nM CH4 ) with habitat-specific seasonal and diurnal patterns. We observed (1) δ13 C-CH4  signatures that revealed habitat-specific CH4 production and consumption pathways, (2) daily peak concentration events that could change >100% within hours across all habitats, and (3) a high thermal sensitivity of the CH4 distribution signified by apparent activation energies of ~1 eV that drove seasonal changes. Bootstrapping simulations show that scaling the CH4 distribution from few samples involves large errors, and that ~50 concentration samples per day are needed to resolve the scale and drivers of the natural variability and improve the certainty of flux calculations by up to 70%. Finally, we identify northern temperate coastal habitats with mixed vegetation and macroalgae as understudied but seasonally relevant atmospheric CH4  sources (i.e., releasing ≥ 100 µmol CH4  m-2  day-1 in summer). Due to the large spatial and temporal heterogeneity of coastal environments, high-resolution measurements will improve the reliability of CH4 estimates and confine the habitat-specific contribution to regional and global CH4 budgets.

Increasing the cost-effectiveness of nutrient reduction targets using different spatial scales.

In this paper, we investigate the potential gains in cost-effectiveness from changing the spatial scale at which nutrient reduction targets are set for the Baltic Sea, with particular focus on nutrient loadings from agriculture. The costs of achieving loading reductions are compared across five levels of spatial scale, namely the entire Baltic Sea; the marine basin level; the country level; the watershed level; and the grid square level. A novel highly-disaggregated model, which represents decreases in agricultural profits, changes in root zone N concentrations and transport to the Baltic Sea is used. The model includes 14 Baltic Sea marine basins, 14 countries, 117 watersheds and 19,023 10-by-10 km grid squares. The main result which emerges is that there is a large variation in the total cost of the program depending on the spatial scale of targeting: for example, for a 40% reduction in loads, the costs of a Baltic Sea-wide target is nearly three times lower than targets set at the smallest level of spatial scale (grid square). These results have important implications for both domestic and international policy design for achieving water quality improvements where non-point pollution is a key stressor of water quality.

Low Abundance of Methanotrophs in Sediments of Shallow Boreal Coastal Zones With High Water Methane Concentrations.

Coastal zones are transitional areas between land and sea where large amounts of organic and inorganic carbon compounds are recycled by microbes. Especially shallow zones near land have been shown to be the main source for oceanic methane (CH4) emissions. Water depth has been predicted as the best explanatory variable, which is related to CH4 ebullition, but exactly how sediment methanotrophs mediates these emissions along water depth is unknown. Here, we investigated the relative abundance and RNA transcripts attributed to methane oxidation proteins of aerobic methanotrophs in the sediment of shallow coastal zones with high CH4 concentrations within a depth gradient from 10-45 m. Field sampling consisted of collecting sediment (top 0-2 cm layer) from eight stations along this depth gradient in the coastal Baltic Sea. The relative abundance and RNA transcripts attributed to the CH4 oxidizing protein (pMMO; particulate methane monooxygenase) of the dominant methanotroph Methylococcales was significantly higher in deeper costal offshore areas (36-45 m water depth) compared to adjacent shallow zones (10-28 m). This was in accordance with the shallow zones having higher CH4 concentrations in the surface water, as well as more CH4 seeps from the sediment. Furthermore, our findings indicate that the low prevalence of Methylococcales and RNA transcripts attributed to pMMO was restrained to the euphotic zone (indicated by Photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) data, photosynthesis proteins, and 18S rRNA data of benthic diatoms). This was also indicated by a positive relationship between water depth and the relative abundance of Methylococcales and pMMO. How these processes are affected by light availability requires further studies. CH4 ebullition potentially bypasses aerobic methanotrophs in shallow coastal areas, reducing CH4 availability and limiting their growth. Such mechanism could help explain their reduced relative abundance and related RNA transcripts for pMMO. These findings can partly explain the difference in CH4 concentrations between shallow and deep coastal areas, and the relationship between CH4 concentrations and water depth.

Reducing agricultural nutrient surpluses in a large catchment - Links to livestock density.

The separation between crop- and livestock production is an important driver of agricultural nutrient surpluses in many parts of the world. Nutrient surpluses can be symptomatic of poor resource use efficiency and contribute to environmental problems. Thus, it is important not only to identify where surpluses can be reduced, but also the potential policy tools that could facilitate reductions. Here, we explored linkages between livestock production and nutrient flows for the Baltic Sea catchment and discuss management practices and policies that influence the magnitude of nutrient surpluses. We found that the majority of nutrients cycled through the livestock sector and that large nitrogen and phosphorus surpluses often occurred in regions with high livestock density. Imports of mineral fertilizers and feed to the catchment increased overall surpluses, which in turn increased the risk of nutrient losses from agriculture to the aquatic environment. Many things can be done to reduce agricultural nutrient surpluses; an important example is using manure nutrients more efficiently in crop production, thereby reducing the need to import mineral fertilizers. Also, existing soil P reserves could be used to a greater extent, which further emphasizes the need to improve nutrient management practices. The countries around the Baltic Sea used different approaches to manage agricultural nutrient surpluses, and because eight of the coastal countries are members in the European Union (EU), common EU policies play an important role in management. We observed reductions in surpluses between 2000 and 2010 in some countries, which suggested the influence of different approaches to management and policy and that there are opportunities for further improvement. However, the separation between crop and livestock production in agriculture appears to be an underlying cause of nutrient surpluses; thus, further research is needed to understand how policy can address these structural issues and increase sustainability in food production.

Application of a novel modeling tool with multistressor functionality to support management of organic contaminants in the Baltic Sea.

Organic contaminants constitute one of many stressors that deteriorate the ecological status of the Baltic Sea. When managing environmental problems in this marine environment, it may be necessary to consider the interactions between various stressors to ensure that averting one problem does not exacerbate another. A novel modeling tool, BALTSEM-POP, is presented here that simulates interactions between climate forcing, hydrodynamic conditions, and water exchange, biogeochemical cycling, and organic contaminant transport and fate in the Baltic Sea. We discuss opportunities to use the model to support different aspects of chemicals management. We exemplify these opportunities with a case study where two emission-reduction strategies for a chemical used in personal care products (decamethylcyclopentasiloxane) are evaluated, and where the confounding influence of future climate change and eutrophication on the impact of the emission-reduction strategies are assessed.

Hypoxia sustains cyanobacteria blooms in the Baltic sea.

Nutrient over-enrichment is one of the classic triggering mechanisms for the occurrence of cyanobacteria blooms in aquatic ecosystems. In the Baltic Sea, cyanobacteria regularly occur in the late summer months and form nuisance accumulations in surface waters and their abundance has intensified significantly in the past 50 years attributed to human-induced eutrophication. However, the natural occurrence of cyanobacteria during the Holocene is debated. In this study, we present records of cyanobacteria pigments, water column redox proxies, and nitrogen isotopic signatures for the past ca. 8000 years from Baltic Sea sediment cores. Our results demonstrate that cyanobacteria abundance and nitrogen fixation are correlated with hypoxia occurring during three main intervals: (1) ca. 7000-4000 B.P. during the Littorina transgression, (2) ca. 1400-700 B.P. during the Medieval Climate Anomaly, and (3) from ca. 1950 A.D. to the present. Issues of preservation were investigated, and we show that organic matter and pigment profiles are not simply an artifact of preservation. These results suggest that cyanobacteria abundance is sustained during periods of hypoxia, most likely because of enhanced recycling of phosphorus in low oxygen conditions.

Reduction of Baltic Sea nutrient inputs and allocation of abatement costs within the Baltic Sea catchment.

The Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP) requires tools to simulate effects and costs of various nutrient abatement strategies. Hierarchically connected databases and models of the entire catchment have been created to allow decision makers to view scenarios via the decision support system NEST. Increased intensity in agriculture in transient countries would result in increased nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea, particularly from Poland, the Baltic States, and Russia. Nutrient retentions are high, which means that the nutrient reduction goals of 135 000 tons N and 15 000 tons P, as formulated in the BSAP from 2007, correspond to a reduction in nutrient loadings to watersheds by 675 000 tons N and 158 000 tons P. A cost-minimization model was used to allocate nutrient reductions to measures and countries where the costs for reducing loads are low. The minimum annual cost to meet BSAP basin targets is estimated to 4.7 billion Euro.

Biogeochemical control of the coupled CO2-O 2 system of the Baltic Sea: a review of the results of Baltic-C.

Past, present, and possible future changes in the Baltic Sea acid-base and oxygen balances were studied using different numerical experiments and a catchment-sea model system in several scenarios including business as usual, medium scenario, and the Baltic Sea Action Plan. New CO2 partial pressure data provided guidance for improving the marine biogeochemical model. Continuous CO2 and nutrient measurements with high temporal resolution helped disentangle the biogeochemical processes. These data and modeling indicate that traditional understandings of the nutrient availability-organic matter production relationship do not necessarily apply to the Baltic Sea. Modeling indicates that increased nutrient loads will not inhibit future Baltic Sea acidification; instead, increased mineralization and biological production will amplify the seasonal surface pH cycle. The direction and magnitude of future pH changes are mainly controlled by atmospheric CO2 concentration. Apart from decreasing pH, we project a decreasing calcium carbonate saturation state and increasing hypoxic area.

Future nutrient load scenarios for the Baltic Sea due to climate and lifestyle changes.

Dynamic model simulations of the future climate and projections of future lifestyles within the Baltic Sea Drainage Basin (BSDB) were considered in this study to estimate potential trends in future nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea. Total nitrogen and total phosphorus loads were estimated using a simple proxy based only on human population (to account for nutrient sources) and stream discharges (to account for nutrient transport). This population-discharge proxy provided a good estimate for nutrient loads across the seven sub-basins of the BSDB considered. All climate scenarios considered here produced increased nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea over the next 100 years. There was variation between the climate scenarios such that sub-basin and regional differences were seen in future nutrient runoff depending on the climate model and scenario considered. Regardless, the results of this study indicate that changes in lifestyle brought about through shifts in consumption and population potentially overshadow the climate effects on future nutrient runoff for the entire BSDB. Regionally, however, lifestyle changes appear relatively more important in the southern regions of the BSDB while climatic changes appear more important in the northern regions with regards to future increases in nutrient loads. From a whole-ecosystem management perspective of the BSDB, this implies that implementation of improved and targeted management practices can still bring about improved conditions in the Baltic Sea in the face of a warmer and wetter future climate.

Global carbon dioxide emissions from inland waters.

Carbon dioxide (CO2) transfer from inland waters to the atmosphere, known as CO2 evasion, is a component of the global carbon cycle. Global estimates of CO2 evasion have been hampered, however, by the lack of a framework for estimating the inland water surface area and gas transfer velocity and by the absence of a global CO2 database. Here we report regional variations in global inland water surface area, dissolved CO2 and gas transfer velocity. We obtain global CO2 evasion rates of 1.8(+0.25)(-0.25) petagrams of carbon (Pg C) per year from streams and rivers and 0.32(+0.52)(-0.26) Pg C yr(-1) from lakes and reservoirs, where the upper and lower limits are respectively the 5th and 95th confidence interval percentiles. The resulting global evasion rate of 2.1 Pg C yr(-1) is higher than previous estimates owing to a larger stream and river evasion rate. Our analysis predicts global hotspots in stream and river evasion, with about 70 per cent of the flux occurring over just 20 per cent of the land surface. The source of inland water CO2 is still not known with certainty and new studies are needed to research the mechanisms controlling CO2 evasion globally.

Hypoxia is increasing in the coastal zone of the Baltic Sea.

Hypoxia is a well-described phenomenon in the offshore waters of the Baltic Sea with both the spatial extent and intensity of hypoxia known to have increased due to anthropogenic eutrophication, however, an unknown amount of hypoxia is present in the coastal zone. Here we report on the widespread unprecedented occurrence of hypoxia across the coastal zone of the Baltic Sea. We have identified 115 sites that have experienced hypoxia during the period 1955-2009 increasing the global total to ca. 500 sites, with the Baltic Sea coastal zone containing over 20% of all known sites worldwide. Most sites experienced episodic hypoxia, which is a precursor to development of seasonal hypoxia. The Baltic Sea coastal zone displays an alarming trend with hypoxia steadily increasing with time since the 1950s effecting nutrient biogeochemical processes, ecosystem services, and coastal habitat.

Scenario analysis on protein consumption and climate change effects on riverine N export to the Baltic Sea.

This paper evaluates possible future nitrogen loadings from 105 catchments surrounding the Baltic Sea. Multiple regressions are used to model total nitrogen (TN) flux as a function of specific runoff (Q), atmospheric nitrogen deposition, and primary emissions (PE) from humans and livestock. On average cattle contributed with 63%, humans with 20%, and pigs with 17% of the total nitrogen PE to land. Compared to the reference period (1992-1996) we then evaluated two types of scenarios for year 2070. i) An increased protein consumption scenario that led to 16% to 39% increased mean TN flux (kg per km(-2)). ii) Four climate scenarios addressing effects of changes in river discharge. These scenarios showed increased mean TN flux from the northern catchments draining into the Gulf of Bothnia (34%) and the Gulfs of Finland and Riga (14%), while the mean TN flux decreased (-27%) for catchments draining to the Baltic Proper. However, the net effect of the scenarios showed a possible increase in TN flux ranging from 3-72%. Overall an increased demand for animal protein will be instrumental for the Baltic Sea ecosystem and may be a major holdback to fulfill the environmental goals of the Baltic Sea Action Plan.

Nutrient budgets for European seas: a measure of the effectiveness of nutrient reduction policies.

Socio-economic development in Europe has exerted increasing pressure on the marine environment. Eutrophication, caused by nutrient enrichment, is evident in regions of all European seas. Its severity varies but has, in places, adversely impacted socio-economic activities. This paper aims to evaluate the effectiveness of recently adopted policies to reduce anthropogenic nutrient inputs to European seas. Nitrogen and phosphorus budgets were constructed for three different periods (prior to severe eutrophication, during severe eutrophication and contemporary) to capture changes in the relative importance of different nutrient sources in four European seas suffering from eutrophication (Baltic Proper, coastal North Sea, Northern Adriatic and North-Western Black Sea Shelf). Policy success is evident for point sources, notably for P in the Baltic and North Seas, but reduction of diffuse sources has been more problematic.

Modeling riverine nutrient transport to the Baltic Sea: a large-scale approach.

We developed for the first time a catchment model simulating simultaneously the nutrient land-sea fluxes from all 105 major watersheds within the Baltic Sea drainage area. A consistent modeling approach to all these major watersheds, i.e., a consistent handling of water fluxes (hydrological simulations) and loading functions (emission data), will facilitate a comparison of riverine nutrient transport between Baltic Sea subbasins that differ substantially. Hot spots of riverine emissions, such as from the rivers Vistula, Oder, and Daugava or from the Danish coast, can be easily demonstrated and the comparison between these hot spots, and the relatively unperturbed rivers in the northern catchments show decisionmakers where remedial actions are most effective to improve the environmental state of the Baltic Sea, and, secondly, what percentage reduction of riverine nutrient loads is possible. The relative difference between measured and simulated fluxes during the validation period was generally small. The cumulative deviation (i.e., relative bias) [Sigma(Simulated - Measured)/Sigma Measured x 100 (%)] from monitored water and nutrient fluxes amounted to +8.2% for runoff, to -2.4% for dissolved inorganic nitrogen, to +5.1% for total nitrogen, to +13% for dissolved inorganic phosphorus and to +19% for total phosphorus. Moreover, the model suggests that point sources for total phosphorus compiled by existing pollution load compilations are underestimated because of inconsistencies in calculating effluent loads from municipalities.

Management options and effects on a marine ecosystem: assessing the future of the Baltic.

We are using the coupled models in a decision support system, Nest, to evaluate the response of the marine ecosystem to changes in external loads through various management options. The models address all the seven major marine basins and the entire drainage basin of the Baltic Sea. A series of future scenarios have been developed, in close collaboration with the Helsinki Commission, to see the possible effects of improved wastewater treatment and manure handling, phosphorus-free detergents, and less intensive land use and live stocks. Improved wastewater treatment and the use of phosphorus-free detergents in the entire region would drastically decrease phosphorus loads and improve the marine environment, particularly the occurrence of cyanobacterial blooms. However, the Baltic Sea will remain eutrophic, and to reduce other effects, a substantial reduction of nitrogen emissions must be implemented. This can only be obtained in these scenarios by drastically changing land use. In a final scenario, we have turned 50% of all agricultural lands into grasslands, together with efficient wastewater treatments and a ban of phosphorus in detergents. This scenario will substantially reduce primary production and the extension of hypoxic bottoms, increase water transparency in the most eutrophied basins, and virtually eliminate extensive cyanobacterial blooms.