RESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Aspiration pneumonia is an important condition in elderly patients and detecting dysphagia early can help clinicians identify patients with a high risk of aspiration pneumonia. We previously reported the usefulness of the Assessment of Swallowing Ability for Pneumonia (ASAP) in predicting the occurrence of and mortality from pneumonia in patients in acute care hospitals; however, there are very few reports on the utility of this screening test for patients in stable condition. METHODS: Elderly patients in stable condition (n = 133) without pneumonia were prospectively enrolled. Associations between ASAP, Functional Independence Measure (FIM), Controlling Nutrition Status (CONUT), and Charlson Co-morbidity Index (CCI) scores and occurrence of/mortality from pneumonia during hospitalization were evaluated. RESULTS: The occurrence of pneumonia was observed in 27 (20.3%) patients, and 18 (13.5%) died during hospitalization. Multivariate analysis showed that low ASAP score and low FIM motor were independent predictors for the occurrence of pneumonia, and low ASAP score was an independent predictor for mortality from pneumonia. Areas under the curve for ASAP, FIM motor, FIM cognition, and CONUT scores were 0.895 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.829-0.960), 0.913 (95% CI, 0.860-0.968), 0.841 (95% CI, 0.761-0.921), and 0.753 (95% CI, 0.649-0.858), respectively, for occurrence, and 0.881 (95% CI, 0.807-0.955), 0.904 (95% CI, 0.860-0.949), 0.829 (95% CI, 0.727-0.931), 0.746 (95% CI, 0.617-0.874), respectively, for mortality. CONCLUSION: The ASAP and FIM motor are useful for predicting the occurrence of and mortality from pneumonia in elderly inpatients in long-term care hospitals.