Vestiges of famine: Long-term mortality impacts of early-life exposure to the 1840s famine in Estonia.

The paper investigates whether exposure to a famine in the Russian Tsarist Province of Livland in 1844-1846 in early life negatively affected survival at later ages, using individual data from two rural parishes. We follow 18 birth cohorts born between 1834-1852 until age 75 and differentiate between timing and length of exposures. We find that relative to individuals born in pre- or post- crisis years, there were no significant differences in survival from age 21-75. Cohorts with longer exposure to famine conditions had increased mortality only in short term, up to age 20. Males were more vulnerable in younger ages than females. The negative effect of adverse early life exposure on survival in later life was constrained to lower social group - the landless, but for the better-off groups the effect was constrained to younger ages. The paper highlights the importance of accounting for sex and socio-economic differences in studies exploring the effects of early life conditions on later-life survival.

Life expectancy changes since COVID-19.

The COVID-19 pandemic triggered an unprecedented rise in mortality that translated into life expectancy losses around the world, with only a few exceptions. We estimate life expectancy changes in 29 countries since 2020 (including most of Europe, the United States and Chile), attribute them to mortality changes by age group and compare them with historic life expectancy shocks. Our results show divergence in mortality impacts of the pandemic in 2021. While countries in western Europe experienced bounce backs from life expectancy losses of 2020, eastern Europe and the United States witnessed sustained and substantial life expectancy deficits. Life expectancy deficits during fall/winter 2021 among people ages 60+ and <60 were negatively correlated with measures of vaccination uptake across countries (r60+ = -0.86; two-tailed P < 0.001; 95% confidence interval, -0.94 to -0.69; r<60 = -0.74; two-tailed P < 0.001; 95% confidence interval, -0.88 to -0.46). In contrast to 2020, the age profile of excess mortality in 2021 was younger, with those in under-80 age groups contributing more to life expectancy losses. However, even in 2021, registered COVID-19 deaths continued to account for most life expectancy losses.

Height and health in late eighteenth-century England.

Adult stature has become a widely used indicator of childhood nutritional status in historical populations and may provide insights into health inequalities that are not discernible in mortality rates. However, most pre-twentieth-century British data on heights suffer from selection biases. Here we present unique evidence on heights of adult males by occupation from an unbiased sample of adult males in Dorset in 1798-99. The mean height of fully grown (married) men was very similar to that of older military recruits, and our sample therefore confirms the taller stature of English males relative to males of other European countries in the same period. In contrast to previous evidence of negligible or U-shaped socio-economic gradients in mortality in this period, we found a fairly linear gradient in height by socio-economic status, that is similar in magnitude to class differences in adult height among English males born in the mid-twentieth century.Supplementary material for this article is available at: https://doi.org/10.1080/00324728.2020.1823011.

Revisiting the Fertility Transition in England and Wales: The Role of Social Class and Migration.

We use individual-level census data for England and Wales for the period 1851-1911 to investigate the interplay between social class and geographical context determining patterns of childbearing during the fertility transition. We also consider the effect of spatial mobility or lifetime migration on individual fertility behavior in the early phases of demographic modernization. Prior research on the fertility transition in England and Wales has demonstrated substantial variation in fertility levels and declines by different social groups; however, these findings were generally reported at a broad geographical level, disguising local variation and complicated by residential segregation along social class and occupational lines. Our findings confirm a clear pattern of widening social class differences in recent net fertility, providing strong support for the argument that belonging to a certain social group was an important determinant of early adoption of new reproductive behavior in marriage in England and Wales. However, a relatively constant effect of lower net fertility among long-distance migrants both before the transition and in the early phases of declining fertility indicates that life course migration patterns were most likely factor in explaining the differences in fertility operating through postponement of marriage and childbearing.

Adapting the Own Children Method to allow comparison of fertility between populations with different marriage regimes.

The Own Children Method (OCM) is an indirect procedure for deriving age-specific fertility rates and total fertility from children living with their mothers at a census or survey. The method was designed primarily for the calculation of overall fertility, although there are variants that allow the calculation of marital fertility. In this paper we argue that the standard variants for calculating marital fertility can produce misleading results and require strong assumptions, particularly when applied to social or spatial subgroups. We present two new variants of the method for calculating marital fertility: the first of these allows for the presence of non-marital fertility and the second also permits the more robust calculation of rates for social subgroups of the population. We illustrate and test these using full-count census data for England and Wales in 1911.

The impact of water supply and sanitation on infant mortality: Individual-level evidence from Tartu, Estonia, 1897-1900.

Evidence from a number of historical studies has demonstrated a strong impact of the provision of clean water on mortality risks, while no clear effect has been reported in others. We investigated the relationship between water supply, sanitation, and infant survival in Tartu, a university town in Estonia, 1897-1900. Based on data from parish registers, which were linked to the first census of the Russian Empire, the analysis reveals a clear disadvantage for infants in households using surface water, compared with families that acquired water from groundwater or artesian wells. The impact is stronger in the later stages of infancy. Competing-risk analysis shows that the effect is more pronounced for deaths caused by diseases of the digestive system. Our findings suggest that it may have been possible to improve the water supply, and consequently reduce infant mortality, before the introduction of piped water and sewage systems.