Health-economic evaluation of orthogeriatric co-management for patients with pelvic or vertebral fragility fractures.

BACKGROUND: Orthogeriatric co-management (OGCM) addresses the special needs of geriatric fracture patients. Most of the research on OGCM focused on hip fractures while results concerning other severe fractures are rare. We conducted a health-economic evaluation of OGCM for pelvic and vertebral fractures. METHODS: In this retrospective cohort study, we used German health and long-term care insurance claims data and included cases of geriatric patients aged 80 years or older treated in an OGCM (OGCM group) or a non-OGCM hospital (non-OGCM group) due to pelvic or vertebral fractures in 2014-2018. We analyzed life years gained, fracture-free life years gained, healthcare costs, and cost-effectiveness within 1 year. We applied entropy balancing, weighted gamma and two-part models. We calculated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios and cost-effectiveness acceptability curves. RESULTS: We included 21,036 cases with pelvic (71.2% in the OGCM, 28.8% in the non-OGCM group) and 33,827 with vertebral fractures (72.8% OGCM, 27.2% non-OGCM group). 4.5-5.9% of the pelvic and 31.8-33.8% of the vertebral fracture cases were treated surgically. Total healthcare costs were significantly higher after treatment in OGCM compared to non-OGCM hospitals for both fracture cohorts. For both fracture cohorts, a 95% probability of cost-effectiveness was not exceeded for a willingness-to-pay of up to €150,000 per life year or €150,000 per fracture-free life year gained. CONCLUSION: We did not obtain distinct benefits of treatment in an OGCM hospital. Assigning cases to OGCM or non-OGCM group on hospital level might have underestimated the effect of OGCM as not all patients in the OGCM group have received OGCM.

Association of air pollution with incidence of end-stage kidney disease in two large European cohorts.

End-stage kidney disease (ESKD) poses a high burden on patients and health systems. While numerous studies indicate an association between air pollution and chronic kidney disease, studies on ESKD are rare. We investigated the association of long-term exposure to nitrogen dioxide (NO2), fine particulate matter (PM2.5), black carbon (BC) and ozone (O3) with ESKD incidence in two large population-based European cohorts. We followed individuals in the Austrian Vorarlberg Health Monitoring and Promotion Program (VHM&PP) and the Italian Rome Longitudinal Study (RoLS) using dialysis and kidney transplant registries. Long-term exposure to pollutants was estimated at the home address using Europe-wide land use regression models at 100x100m scale. Hazard ratios (HR) were determined from Cox-proportional hazard models adjusted for individual and neighbourhood level confounders. We observed 501 events among 136,823 individuals in VHM&PP (mean age 42.1 years; crude incidence rate (IR) 0.14 per 1000 person-years) and 3231 events among 1,939,461 individuals in RoLS (mean age 52.4 years; IR 0.22 per 1000 person-years). In VHM&PP, there was no evidence of an association between PM2.5 or O3 and ESKD. There were elevated HRs but with large confidence intervals for BC (HR 1.17 [95 % confidence interval (CI): 0.98, 1.39] for 0.5*10-5/m), and for NO2 (HR 1.14 [95%CI: 0.96, 1.35] for 10 µg/m3). In RoLS, ESKD was associated with PM2.5 (HR 1.37 [95 % CI: 1.06, 1.76] for an increase of 5 µg/m3), while there was no evidence of association with BC, NO2, or O3 exposure. Our study suggests an association of air pollution with ESKD incidence, which differed between the two cohorts and may possibly be influenced by respective air pollution mixtures.

Health-economic evaluation of orthogeriatric co-management for patients with forearm or humerus fractures: an analysis of insurance claims data from Germany.

Orthogeriatric co-management (OGCM) describes a collaboration of orthopedic surgeons and geriatricians for the treatment of fragility fractures in geriatric patients. While its cost-effectiveness for hip fractures has been widely investigated, research focusing on fractures of the upper extremities is lacking. Thus, we conducted a health economic evaluation of treatment in OGCM hospitals for forearm and humerus fractures.In a retrospective cohort study with nationwide health insurance claims data, we selected the first inpatient stay due to a forearm or humerus fracture in 2014-2018 either treated in hospitals that were able to offer OGCM (OGCM group) or not (non-OGCM group) and applied a 1-year follow-up. We included 31,557 cases with forearm (63.1% OGCM group) and 39,093 cases with humerus fractures (63.9% OGCM group) and balanced relevant covariates using entropy balancing. We investigated costs in different health sectors, length of stay, and cost-effectiveness regarding total cost per life year or fracture-free life year gained.In both fracture cohorts, initial hospital stay, inpatient stay, and total costs were higher in OGCM than in non-OGCM hospitals. For neither cohort nor effectiveness outcome, the probability that treatment in OGCM hospitals was cost-effective exceeded 95% for a willingness-to-pay of up to €150,000.We did not find distinct benefits of treatment in OGCM hospitals. Assigning cases to study groups on hospital-level and using life years and fracture-free life years, which might not adequately reflect the manifold ways these fractures affect the patients' health, as effectiveness outcomes, might have underestimated the effectiveness of treatment in OGCM hospitals.

Long-term exposure to air pollution and chronic kidney disease-associated mortality-Results from the pooled cohort of the European multicentre ELAPSE-study.

Despite the known link between air pollution and cause-specific mortality, its relation to chronic kidney disease (CKD)-associated mortality is understudied. Therefore, we investigated the association between long-term exposure to air pollution and CKD-related mortality in a large multicentre population-based European cohort. Cohort data were linked to local mortality registry data. CKD-death was defined as ICD10 codes N18-N19 or corresponding ICD9 codes. Mean annual exposure at participant's home address was determined with fine spatial resolution exposure models for nitrogen dioxide (NO2), black carbon (BC), ozone (O3), particulate matter ≤2.5 µm (PM2.5) and several elemental constituents of PM2.5. Cox regression models were adjusted for age, sex, cohort, calendar year of recruitment, smoking status, marital status, employment status and neighbourhood mean income. Over a mean follow-up time of 20.4 years, 313 of 289,564 persons died from CKD. Associations were positive for PM2.5 (hazard ratio (HR) with 95% confidence interval (CI) of 1.31 (1.03-1.66) per 5 µg/m3, BC (1.26 (1.03-1.53) per 0.5 × 10- 5/m), NO2 (1.13 (0.93-1.38) per 10 µg/m3) and inverse for O3 (0.71 (0.54-0.93) per 10 µg/m3). Results were robust to further covariate adjustment. Exclusion of the largest sub-cohort contributing 226 cases, led to null associations. Among the elemental constituents, Cu, Fe, K, Ni, S and Zn, representing different sources including traffic, biomass and oil burning and secondary pollutants, were associated with CKD-related mortality. In conclusion, our results suggest an association between air pollution from different sources and CKD-related mortality.

Long-term exposure to air pollution and incidence of gastric and the upper aerodigestive tract cancers in a pooled European cohort: The ELAPSE project.

Air pollution has been shown to significantly impact human health including cancer. Gastric and upper aerodigestive tract (UADT) cancers are common and increased risk has been associated with smoking and occupational exposures. However, the association with air pollution remains unclear. We pooled European subcohorts (N = 287,576 participants for gastric and N = 297,406 for UADT analyses) and investigated the association between residential exposure to fine particles (PM2.5), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), black carbon (BC) and ozone in the warm season (O3w) with gastric and UADT cancer. We applied Cox proportional hazards models adjusting for potential confounders at the individual and area-level. During 5,305,133 and 5,434,843 person-years, 872 gastric and 1139 UADT incident cancer cases were observed, respectively. For gastric cancer, we found no association with PM2.5, NO2 and BC while for UADT the hazard ratios (95% confidence interval) were 1.15 (95% CI: 1.00-1.33) per 5 µg/m3 increase in PM2.5, 1.19 (1.08-1.30) per 10 µg/m3 increase in NO2, 1.14 (1.04-1.26) per 0.5 × 10-5 m-1 increase in BC and 0.81 (0.72-0.92) per 10 µg/m3 increase in O3w. We found no association between long-term ambient air pollution exposure and incidence of gastric cancer, while for long-term exposure to PM2.5, NO2 and BC increased incidence of UADT cancer was observed.

Evaluation of costs, osteoporosis treatment, and re-fractures in German collaborative orthogeriatric care after fragility fractures.

Orthogeriatric co-management (OGCM) may provide benefits for geriatric fragility fracture patients in terms of more frequent osteoporosis treatment and fewer re-fractures. Yet, we did not find higher costs in OGCM hospitals for re-fractures or antiosteoporotic medication for most fracture sites within 12 months, although antiosteoporotic medication was more often prescribed. PURPOSE: Evidence suggests benefits of orthogeriatric co-management (OGCM) for hip fracture patients. Yet, evidence for other fractures is rare. The aim of our study was to conduct an evaluation of economic and health outcomes after the German OGCM for geriatric fragility fracture patients. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study was based on German health and long-term care insurance data. Individuals were 80 years and older, sustained a fragility fracture in 2014-2018, and were treated in hospitals certified for OGCM (ATZ group), providing OGCM without certification (OGCM group) or usual care (control group). Healthcare costs from payer perspective, prescribed medications, and re-fractures were investigated within 6 and 12 months. We used weighted gamma and two-part models and applied entropy balancing to account for the lack of randomization. All analyses were stratified per fracture site. RESULTS: We observed 206,273 patients within 12-month follow-up, of whom 14,100 were treated in ATZ, 133,353 in OGCM, and 58,820 in other hospitals. Total average inpatient costs per patient were significantly higher in the OGCM and particularly ATZ group for all fracture sites, compared to control group. We did not find significant differences in costs for re-fractures or antiosteoporotic medication for most fracture sites, although antiosteoporotic medication was significantly more often observed in the OGCM and particularly ATZ group for hip, pelvic, and humerus fractures. CONCLUSION: The observed healthcare costs were higher in ATZ and OGCM hospitals within 12 months. Antiosteoporotic medication was prescribed more often in both groups for most fracture sites, although the corresponding medication costs did not increase.

Long-term exposure to several constituents and sources of PM2.5 is associated with incidence of upper aerodigestive tract cancers but not gastric cancer: Results from the large pooled European cohort of the ELAPSE project.

It is unclear whether cancers of the upper aerodigestive tract (UADT) and gastric cancer are related to air pollution, due to few studies with inconsistent results. The effects of particulate matter (PM) may vary across locations due to different source contributions and related PM compositions, and it is not clear which PM constituents/sources are most relevant from a consideration of overall mass concentration alone. We therefore investigated the association of UADT and gastric cancers with PM2.5 elemental constituents and sources components indicative of different sources within a large multicentre population based epidemiological study. Cohorts with at least 10 cases per cohort led to ten and eight cohorts from five countries contributing to UADT- and gastric cancer analysis, respectively. Outcome ascertainment was based on cancer registry data or data of comparable quality. We assigned home address exposure to eight elemental constituents (Cu, Fe, K, Ni, S, Si, V and Zn) estimated from Europe-wide exposure models, and five source components identified by absolute principal component analysis (APCA). Cox regression models were run with age as time scale, stratified for sex and cohort and adjusted for relevant individual and neighbourhood level confounders. We observed 1139 UADT and 872 gastric cancer cases during a mean follow-up of 18.3 and 18.5 years, respectively. UADT cancer incidence was associated with all constituents except K in single element analyses. After adjustment for NO2, only Ni and V remained associated with UADT. Residual oil combustion and traffic source components were associated with UADT cancer persisting in the multiple source model. No associations were found for any of the elements or source components and gastric cancer incidence. Our results indicate an association of several PM constituents indicative of different sources with UADT but not gastric cancer incidence with the most robust evidence for traffic and residual oil combustion.

Medical care and biomarker-based assessment of mortality in two cohorts of patients with chronic coronary syndrome 10 years apart.

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to describe the characteristics and mortality of two cohorts of patients with chronic coronary syndrome (CCS) recruited with identical study designs in the same rehabilitation clinics but approximately 10 years apart. METHODS: The KAROLA cohorts included patients with CCS participating in an inpatient cardiac rehabilitation programme in Germany (KAROLA-I: years 1999/2000, KAROLA-II: 2009-2011). Blood samples and information on sociodemographic factors, lifestyle, and medical treatment were collected at baseline, at the end of rehabilitation, and after one year of follow-up. A biomarker-based risk model (ABC-CHD model) and Cox regression analysis were used to evaluate cardiovascular (CV) and non-CV mortality risk. RESULTS: We included 1130 patients from KAROLA-I (mean age 58.7 years, 84.4% men) and 860 from KAROLA-II (mean age 60.4 years, 83.4% men). Patients in the KAROLA-I cohort had significantly higher concentrations of CV biomarkers and fewer patients were taking CV medications, except for statins. The biomarker-based ABC-CHD model provided a higher estimate of CV death risk for patients in the KAROLA-I cohort (median 3-year risk, 3.8%) than for patients in the KAROLA-II cohort (median 3-year risk, 2.7%, p-value for difference < 0.001). After 10 years of follow-up, 91 (8.1%) patients in KAROLA-I and 45 (5.2%) in KAROLA-II had died from a CV event. CONCLUSIONS: Advances in disease management over the past 20 years may have led to modest improvements in pharmacological treatment during cardiac rehabilitation and long-term outpatient care for patients with CCS. However, modifiable risk factors such as obesity have increased in the more recent cohort and should be targeted to further improve the prognosis of these patients.

Exposure to ambient air pollution and elevated blood levels of gamma-glutamyl transferase in a large Austrian cohort.

Gamma glutamyl transferase (GGT) is related to oxidative stress and an indicator for liver damage. We investigated the association between air pollution and GGT in a large Austrian cohort (N = 116,109) to better understand how air pollution affects human health. Data come from voluntary prevention visits that were routinely collected within the Vorarlberg Health Monitoring and Prevention Program (VHM&PP). Recruitment was ongoing from 1985 to 2005. Blood was drawn and GGT measured centralized in two laboratories. Land use regression models were applied to estimate individuals' exposure at their home address for particulate matter (PM) with a diameter of <2.5 µm (PM2.5), <10 µm (PM10), fraction between 10 µm and 2.5 µm (PMcoarse), as well as PM2.5 absorbance (PM2.5abs), NO2, NOx and eight components of PM. Linear regression models, adjusting for relevant individual and community-level confounders were calculated. The study population was 56 % female with a mean age of 42 years and mean GGT was 19.0 units. Individual PM2.5 and NO2 exposures were essentially below European limit values of 25 and 40 µg/m3, respectively, with means of 13.58 µg/m3 for PM2.5 and 19.93 µg/m3 for NO2. Positive associations were observed for PM2.5, PM10, PM2.5abs, NO2, NOx, and Cu, K, S in PM2.5 and PM10 fractions and Zn mainly in PM2.5 fraction. The strongest association per interquartile range observed was an increase of serum GGT concentration by 1.40 % (95 %-CI: 0.85 %; 1.95 %) per 45.7 ng/m3 S in PM2.5. Associations were robust to adjustments for other biomarkers, in two-pollutant models and the subset with a stable residential history. We found that long-term exposure to air pollution (PM2.5, PM10, PM2.5abs, NO2, NOx) as well as certain elements, were positively associated with baseline GGT levels. The elements associated suggest a role of traffic emissions, long range transport and wood burning.

Prevalence and Prognostic Value of Psychological Stress Events in Patients with First Myocardial Infarction-Long-Term Follow-Up Study.

While there is good evidence that symptoms of depression determine prognosis of patients with coronary heart disease (CHD), the role of psychological stress is less clear. We evaluated the prognostic value of stressful events in patients with initial myocardial infarction (MI) with respect to subsequent cardiovascular events. The KAROLA-study included patients with CHD who participated in an in-patient rehabilitation program. A total of 577 patients with initial MI were included and self-reported psychological stressful events before their MI was assessed by a structured questionnaire. Hazard ratios were used to evaluate the long-term association of stressful events with secondary cardiovascular events. Additionally, associations of stressful events with depression, anxiety and other cardiovascular risk factors were investigated. Unusual stress at work (26.5%) and sleep disorder (23.4%) were the most frequently reported stressful events that occurred in the last 4 weeks before MI. However, only death of a family member showed a statistically significant increase in risk for subsequent cardiovascular events (HR: 1.59; 95%-CI: 1.01-2.50) and this result was not corrected for multiple testing. Notably, we found higher symptom scores of anxiety and depression associated with all single stressful event items. In conclusion, we found no clear patterns that psychological stressful events before MI would increase the long-term risk of subsequent adverse CHD events directly. However, we saw increased symptom scores of anxiety and depression in persons with stressful events.

Prognostic value of long-term trajectories of depression for incident diabetes mellitus in patients with stable coronary heart disease.

BACKGROUND: Diabetes mellitus (DM) and depression are bidirectionally interrelated. We recently identified long-term trajectories of depression symptom severity in individuals with coronary heart disease (CHD), which were associated with the risk for subsequent cardiovascular events (CVE). We now investigated the prognostic value of these trajectories of symptoms of depression with the risk of incident DM in patients with stable coronary heart disease. METHODS: The KAROLA cohort included CHD patients participating in an in-patient rehabilitation program (years 1999/2000) and followed for up to 15 years. We included 1048 patients (mean age 59.4 years, 15% female) with information on prevalent DM at baseline and follow-up data. Cox proportional hazards models were used to model the risk for incident DM during follow-up by depression trajectory class adjusted for age, sex, education, smoking status, body mass index, and physical activity. In addition, we modeled the excess risk for subsequent CVE due to incident DM during follow-up for each of the depression trajectories. RESULTS: DM was prevalent in 20.7% of patients at baseline. Over follow-up, 296 (28.2%) of patients had a subsequent CVE. During follow-up, 157 (15.0%) patients developed incident DM before experiencing a subsequent CVE. Patients following a high-stable depression symptom trajectory were at substantially higher risk of developing incident DM than patients following a low-stable depression symptom trajectory (hazard ratio (HR) = 2.50; 95% confidence interval (CI) (1.35, 4.65)). A moderate-stable and an increasing depression trajectory were associated with HRs of 1.48 (95%-CI (1.10, 1.98)) and 1.77 (95%-CI (1.00, 3.15)) for incident DM. In addition, patients in the high-stable depression trajectory class who developed incident DM during follow-up were at 6.5-fold risk (HR = 6.51; 95%-CI (2.77, 15.3)) of experiencing a subsequent cardiovascular event. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with CHD, following a trajectory of high stable symptoms of depression was associated with an increased risk of incident DM. Furthermore, incident DM in these patients was associated with a substantially increased risk of subsequent CVE. Identifying depressive symptoms and pertinent treatment offers might be an important and promising approach to enhance outcomes in patients with CHD, which should be followed up in further research and practice.

Metabolic factors and the risk of small intestine cancers: Pooled study of 800 000 individuals in the metabolic syndrome and cancer project.

To explore the largely unknown etiology of small intestine cancer, we examined metabolic factors and risk of small intestine cancer overall and by subtypes. Among 404 220 women and 403 265 men in six European cohorts, we applied Cox regression with adjustment for smoking and body mass index (BMI), to calculate sex-specific hazard ratios (HRs) of small intestine cancer by levels of BMI, mean arterial pressure (MAP) and plasma total cholesterol, triglycerides and glucose. We also calculated HRs for these factors combined (metabolic score; MetS) and used Wald test statistics to investigate pairwise interactions between metabolic factors on risk. We also performed analyses separately per subtype (neuroendocrine tumors [NETs] and adenocarcinomas). During a median follow-up of 16.9 years, 144 women and 195 men were diagnosed with small intestine cancer, including 184 NETs and 99 adenocarcinomas. Among men, no main associations or interactions between metabolic factors were observed in relation to the risk of small intestine cancer. Among women, triglycerides were positively and linearly associated with risk (HR per standard deviation [SD]: 1.23, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.04-1.46), and a positive association was also observed for the MetS (HR per SD: 1.25, 95% CI: 1.02-1.52). Positive interactions were observed among women between triglycerides and cholesterol (P = .0005), and between MAP and glucose (P = .009), on risk. Glucose was positively associated with adenocarcinomas among women. This large, prospective study suggests that elevated triglycerides, and metabolic factors in interaction, confer an increased risk of small intestine cancer among women, but not among men.

Repeat Measurements of High Sensitivity Troponins for the Prediction of Recurrent Cardiovascular Events in Patients With Established Coronary Heart Disease: An Analysis From the KAROLA Study.

Background High-sensitivity cardiac troponins T and I (hs- cTnT and hs- cTnI ) are established biomarkers for myocardial injury and used for diagnostic and prognostic purposes. However, whether repeat measurements improve prediction of recurrent cardiovascular disease ( CVD ) events in patients with stable coronary heart disease ( CHD ) after adjustment for several other novel biomarkers remains unclear. Methods and Results We measured both troponins in 873 coronary heart disease patients from the KAROLA (Langzeiterfolge der Kardiologischen Anschlussheilbehandlung) study about 9 weeks after their initial acute event (baseline) and after 12 months, followed them for 12 years, assessed a combined CVD end point, and adjusted for several risk factors. As we found evidence for effect modification, results were stratified according to presence of myocardial infarction at baseline. During follow-up, 186 fatal and non-fatal CVD events occurred. Both baseline and 12-months troponin concentrations were significantly associated with CVD events in patients without myocardial infarction at baseline; in tendency 12 months of troponin showed stronger hazard ratios (hs- cTnT : hazard ratios 1.91 (95% CI 1.17-3.11) versus baseline values 1.71 (95% CI 1.08-2.70) and for hs- cTnI : hazard ratio 1.55 (95% CI 1.05-2.30) versus baseline value 1.22 (95% CI 0.88-1.68) in the fully and simultaneously adjusted model. Conclusions Both troponins are consistently associated with recurrent cardiovascular events after adjustment for emerging risk factors during follow-up in our study especially evident in patients without myocardial infarction at baseline. Troponin values at 12 months of follow-up showed independent associations with future CVD events in addition to baseline assessments of troponins.

Multi-state models of transitions in depression and anxiety symptom severity and cardiovascular events in patients with coronary heart disease.

OBJECTIVE: Patients with coronary heart disease (CHD) commonly suffer from depression and anxiety, yet transitions of symptom severity and cardiovascular events (CVE) over time are not well characterized. METHODS: We included 997 patients with stable CHD from a prospective cohort study. We estimated 5- and 10-year transition probabilities of depression and anxiety symptom severity levels and fatal- and non-fatal adverse CVE. Depression and anxiety symptoms were measured with the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale 5 times over 13 years and categorized as no, mild, or moderate/severe symptoms. Using multi-state modeling, we calculated 5- and 10-year transition probabilities for depression and anxiety symptom severity and CVE and calculated transition intensity ratios for factors associated with symptom severity progression and regression. RESULTS: At 5 years, only approximately half of participants with moderate or severe symptom severity at baseline transitioned to no symptom severity. Patients with low physical activity (<1x/week or never) had a higher probability of worse symptom severity after 5 and 10 years and a higher probability of a CVE after 5 and 10 years regardless of their depression status at baseline compared to higher physical activity groups. Higher body mass index, <10 years of education, and lower physical activity were associated with depression symptom progression; female and lower physical activity were associated with anxiety symptom progression. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with CHD had a consistent burden of depression and anxiety symptoms. Secondary prevention strategies should target depression and anxiety and include a physical activity component.

Can environment or allergy explain international variation in prevalence of wheeze in childhood?

Asthma prevalence in children varies substantially around the world, but the contribution of known risk factors to this international variation is uncertain. The International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Childhood (ISAAC) Phase Two studied 8-12 year old children in 30 centres worldwide with parent-completed symptom and risk factor questionnaires and aeroallergen skin prick testing. We used multilevel logistic regression modelling to investigate the effect of adjustment for individual and ecological risk factors on the between-centre variation in prevalence of recent wheeze. Adjustment for single individual-level risk factors changed the centre-level variation from a reduction of up to 8.4% (and 8.5% for atopy) to an increase of up to 6.8%. Modelling the 11 most influential environmental factors among all children simultaneously, the centre-level variation changed little overall (2.4% increase). Modelling only factors that decreased the variance, the 6 most influential factors (synthetic and feather quilt, mother's smoking, heating stoves, dampness and foam pillows) in combination resulted in a 21% reduction in variance. Ecological (centre-level) risk factors generally explained higher proportions of the variation than did individual risk factors. Single environmental factors and aeroallergen sensitisation measured at the individual (child) level did not explain much of the between-centre variation in wheeze prevalence.

Particulate matter air pollution components and incidence of cancers of the stomach and the upper aerodigestive tract in the European Study of Cohorts of Air Pollution Effects (ESCAPE).

INTRODUCTION: Previous analysis from the large European multicentre ESCAPE study showed an association of ambient particulate matter <2.5 µm (PM2.5) air pollution exposure at residence with the incidence of gastric cancer. It is unclear which components of PM are most relevant for gastric and also upper aerodigestive tract (UADT) cancer and some of them may not be strongly correlated with PM mass. We evaluated the association between long-term exposure to elemental components of PM2.5 and PM10 and gastric and UADT cancer incidence in European adults. METHODS: Baseline addresses of individuals were geocoded and exposure was assessed by land-use regression models for copper (Cu), iron (Fe) and zinc (Zn) representing non-tailpipe traffic emissions; sulphur (S) indicating long-range transport; nickel (Ni) and vanadium (V) for mixed oil-burning and industry; silicon (Si) for crustal material and potassium (K) for biomass burning. Cox regression models with adjustment for potential confounders were used for cohort-specific analyses. Combined estimates were determined with random effects meta-analyses. RESULTS: Ten cohorts in six countries contributed data on 227,044 individuals with an average follow-up of 14.9 years with 633 incident cases of gastric cancer and 763 of UADT cancer. The combined hazard ratio (HR) for an increase of 200 ng/m3 of PM2.5_S was 1.92 (95%-confidence interval (95%-CI) 1.13;3.27) for gastric cancer, with no indication of heterogeneity between cohorts (I2 = 0%), and 1.63 (95%-CI 0.88;3.01) for PM2.5_Zn (I2 = 70%). For the other elements in PM2.5 and all elements in PM10 including PM10_S, non-significant HRs between 0.78 and 1.21 with mostly wide CIs were seen. No association was found between any of the elements and UADT cancer. The HR for PM2.5_S and gastric cancer was robust to adjustment for additional factors, including diet, and restriction to study participants with stable addresses over follow-up resulted in slightly higher effect estimates with a decrease in precision. In a two-pollutant model, the effect estimate for total PM2.5 decreased whereas that for PM2.5_S was robust. CONCLUSION: This large multicentre cohort study shows a robust association between gastric cancer and long-term exposure to PM2.5_S but not PM10_S, suggesting that S in PM2.5 or correlated air pollutants may contribute to the risk of gastric cancer.

Air pollution and incidence of cancers of the stomach and the upper aerodigestive tract in the European Study of Cohorts for Air Pollution Effects (ESCAPE).

Air pollution has been classified as carcinogenic to humans. However, to date little is known about the relevance for cancers of the stomach and upper aerodigestive tract (UADT). We investigated the association of long-term exposure to ambient air pollution with incidence of gastric and UADT cancer in 11 European cohorts. Air pollution exposure was assigned by land-use regression models for particulate matter (PM) below 10 µm (PM10 ), below 2.5 µm (PM2.5 ), between 2.5 and 10 µm (PMcoarse ), PM2.5 absorbance and nitrogen oxides (NO2 and NOX ) as well as approximated by traffic indicators. Cox regression models with adjustment for potential confounders were used for cohort-specific analyses. Combined estimates were determined with random effects meta-analyses. During average follow-up of 14.1 years of 305,551 individuals, 744 incident cases of gastric cancer and 933 of UADT cancer occurred. The hazard ratio for an increase of 5 µg/m3 of PM2.5 was 1.38 (95% CI 0.99; 1.92) for gastric and 1.05 (95% CI 0.62; 1.77) for UADT cancers. No associations were found for any of the other exposures considered. Adjustment for additional confounders and restriction to study participants with stable addresses did not influence markedly the effect estimate for PM2.5 and gastric cancer. Higher estimated risks of gastric cancer associated with PM2.5 was found in men (HR 1.98 [1.30; 3.01]) as compared to women (HR 0.85 [0.5; 1.45]). This large multicentre cohort study shows an association between long-term exposure to PM2.5 and gastric cancer, but not UADT cancers, suggesting that air pollution may contribute to gastric cancer risk.

Is There an Association Between Ambient Air Pollution and Bladder Cancer Incidence? Analysis of 15 European Cohorts.

BACKGROUND: Ambient air pollution contains low concentrations of carcinogens implicated in the etiology of urinary bladder cancer (BC). Little is known about whether exposure to air pollution influences BC in the general population. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the association between long-term exposure to ambient air pollution and BC incidence. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: We obtained data from 15 population-based cohorts enrolled between 1985 and 2005 in eight European countries (N=303431; mean follow-up 14.1 yr). We estimated exposure to nitrogen oxides (NO2 and NOx), particulate matter (PM) with diameter <10µm (PM10), <2.5µm (PM2.5), between 2.5 and 10µm (PM2.5-10), PM2.5absorbance (soot), elemental constituents of PM, organic carbon, and traffic density at baseline home addresses using standardized land-use regression models from the European Study of Cohorts for Air Pollution Effects project. OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: We used Cox proportional-hazards models with adjustment for potential confounders for cohort-specific analyses and meta-analyses to estimate summary hazard ratios (HRs) for BC incidence. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS: During follow-up, 943 incident BC cases were diagnosed. In the meta-analysis, none of the exposures were associated with BC risk. The summary HRs associated with a 10-µg/m3 increase in NO2 and 5-µg/m3 increase in PM2.5 were 0.98 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.89-1.08) and 0.86 (95% CI 0.63-1.18), respectively. Limitations include the lack of information about lifetime exposure. CONCLUSIONS: There was no evidence of an association between exposure to outdoor air pollution levels at place of residence and risk of BC. PATIENT SUMMARY: We assessed the link between outdoor air pollution at place of residence and bladder cancer using the largest study population to date and extensive assessment of exposure and comprehensive data on personal risk factors such as smoking. We found no association between the levels of outdoor air pollution at place of residence and bladder cancer risk.

Long-term exposure to ambient air pollution and incidence of brain tumor: the European Study of Cohorts for Air Pollution Effects (ESCAPE).

Background: Epidemiological evidence on the association between ambient air pollution and brain tumor risk is sparse and inconsistent. Methods: In 12 cohorts from 6 European countries, individual estimates of annual mean air pollution levels at the baseline residence were estimated by standardized land-use regression models developed within the ESCAPE and TRANSPHORM projects: particulate matter (PM) ≤2.5, ≤10, and 2.5-10 µm in diameter (PM2.5, PM10, and PMcoarse), PM2.5 absorbance, nitrogen oxides (NO2 and NOx) and elemental composition of PM. We estimated cohort-specific associations of air pollutant concentrations and traffic intensity with total, malignant, and nonmalignant brain tumor, in separate Cox regression models, adjusting for risk factors, and pooled cohort-specific estimates using random-effects meta-analyses. Results: Of 282194 subjects from 12 cohorts, 466 developed malignant brain tumors during 12 years of follow-up. Six of the cohorts also had data on nonmalignant brain tumor, where among 106786 subjects, 366 developed brain tumor: 176 nonmalignant and 190 malignant. We found a positive, statistically nonsignificant association between malignant brain tumor and PM2.5 absorbance (hazard ratio and 95% CI: 1.67; 0.89-3.14 per 10-5/m3), and weak positive or null associations with the other pollutants. Hazard ratio for PM2.5 absorbance (1.01; 0.38-2.71 per 10-5/m3) and all other pollutants were lower for nonmalignant than for malignant brain tumors. Conclusion: We found suggestive evidence of an association between long-term exposure to PM2.5 absorbance indicating traffic-related air pollution and malignant brain tumors, and no association with overall or nonmalignant brain tumors.