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1.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 121(36): e2313191121, 2024 Sep 03.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39196625

RESUMEN

Achieving more sustainable adaptation to social-environmental change demands the transformation of the narratives that provide the rationale for risk governance. These narratives often reflect long-standing beliefs about social and political relationships, ascribe actions and responsibilities, and specify solutions to risk. When such solutions are implemented through material investments in landscapes, these narratives become embedded in physical infrastructure with long legacies. Dominant narratives can mask a range of divergent problem framings. By masking alternatives, narratives can contribute to the persistence of unsustainable governance trajectories. Decision-support tools have begun to represent narratives as drivers of system dynamics; making narratives visible can reveal opportunities for more sustainable governance. We present the results of the project "The Dynamics of Multi-Scalar Adaptation in the Megalopolis", a dynamic, exploratory model of socio-hydrological risks in Mexico City that was designed to both endogenize and simultaneously challenge the dominant narratives that characterize water-risk governance in the city. Qualitative data characterize dominant narratives at city and borough scales. An agent-based model, informed by multicriteria decision analysis and coupled with hydrological, urbanization, and climatic model inputs, permitted the development of exploratory governance scenarios designed to challenge dominant narratives. Scenarios revealed how dominant narratives may contribute to the persistence of vulnerability "hotspots" in the city, despite stated goals of equity and vulnerability alleviation. Participatory workshops with representatives of the city government illustrate how making such narratives visible through exploratory modeling can lead to a questioning of prior assumptions and causal relations, recognition of a need for intersectoral collaboration, and insights into potential management strategies.

2.
PLoS One ; 19(8): e0307832, 2024.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39178192

RESUMEN

Rule enforcement is critical in democratic, self-governing societies. Many political disputes occur when citizens do not understand the fundamental rationales for enforcement (e.g., COVID-19 pandemic). We examined how naïve groups learn and develop wise enforcement systems. Based on theories from behavioral economics, political science, psychology, and education, we predicted that groups need to experience failure of an enforcement system, but be guided on restorative justice principles to collectively learn from this failure. Undergraduate students (N = 288) from a Midwestern U.S. metropolitan university self-governed a simulated common-pool resource with real financial payoffs. Groups began with one of three conditions designed to create different experiences with enforcement and regulatory failure: (a) no enforcement (no communication or peer sanctioning), (b) lax enforcement (communication with peer-sanctioning), or (c) regulatory abuse (peer sanctioning without communication). Half then received facilitated guidance on restorative justice principles (e.g., discuss whether/why to use sanctions). To examine cooperation, we measured how well participants maintained the resource. To examine group learning, we created a novel coding system, which tracked groups' constitutional decisions about conservation agreements and enforcement, conceptual understanding, and the enforcement systems they created. The no-enforcement and lax-enforcement conditions quickly yielded moderate cooperation via voluntary agreements. However, such agreements prevented groups from discovering how and why to use enforcement (peer sanctioning) to improve performance. Initial exposure to regulatory failure had different effects depending on facilitation. Unfacilitated groups fixated on initial misconceptions, causing them to abandon or create less sophisticated enforcement systems, hindering cooperation. Facilitated groups learned from prior failure-discovering principles of wise enforcement (e.g., collective efficiency, self-restraint)-and created more sophisticated enforcement systems (e.g., coordinated sanctions) that improved cooperation. Guidance on restorative justice principles and experience with regulatory abuse may be necessary preconditions for naïve individuals to understand and develop wiser collective enforcement systems.


Asunto(s)
COVID-19 , Justicia Social , Humanos , Masculino , Femenino , COVID-19/epidemiología , COVID-19/prevención & control , Adulto Joven , Aplicación de la Ley , Estudiantes/psicología , SARS-CoV-2 , Adulto , Aprendizaje , Universidades
3.
PLoS One ; 19(8): e0308363, 2024.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39102405

RESUMEN

There is limited research about how groups solve collective action problems in uncertain environments, especially if groups are confronted with unknown unknowns. We aim to develop a more comprehensive view of the characteristics that allow both groups and individuals to navigate such issues more effectively. In this article, we present the results of a new online experiment where individuals make decisions of whether to contribute to the group or pursue self-interest in an environment with high uncertainty, including unknown unknowns. The behavioral game, Port of Mars is framed as a first-generation habitat on Mars where participants have to make decisions on how much to invest in the shared infrastructure to maintain system health and how much to invest in personal goals. Participants can chat during the game, and take surveys before and after the game in order to measure personality attributes and observations from the game. Initial results suggest that a higher average social value orientation and more communication are the key factors that explain why some groups are more successful than others in surviving Port of Mars. Neither other attributes of players nor the group's communication content explain the observed differences between groups.


Asunto(s)
Marte , Humanos , Masculino , Femenino , Adulto , Adulto Joven , Toma de Decisiones , Juegos Experimentales , Comunicación , Incertidumbre , Conducta Cooperativa , Adolescente
4.
Int J Occup Saf Ergon ; 30(2): 450-459, 2024 Jun.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38378446

RESUMEN

Objectives. It is prescribed to determine blue-light hazard (BLH) weighted radiances, LB, for an assessment of spotlights with an angular subtense α≥11mrad. The BLH weighted irradiance, EB, can be used alternatively for smaller sources. Appropriate instruments are not common among persons commissioned with risk assessment (RA), and especially LB measurements may be challenging. Therefore, a practical BLH RA approach is proposed that is based on illuminance, Ev, pre-calculated blackbody BLH efficacies of luminous radiation, KB,vPlanck, and solid angle considerations. Methods. The practicality of this method was examined and compared against other RA approaches. Results. To ensure comparability of the applied instruments, measurements were performed close to a radiance standard, showing deviations within the lamp's expanded uncertainties (<4%), whereas the deviations were ±15% for longer distances. Focusing on a complex light-emitting diode (LED) spotlight, all detected values could be converted to LB by means of the RA methods within ±20%. Two field tests with several spotlights yielded maximum permissible exposure durations (MPED) obtained from the different RA approaches that agreed among each other within uncertainties largely below ±30%. Conclusion. The general practicality of the proposed Ev method can be concluded for a workplace BLH RA of white-light sources.


Asunto(s)
Luz , Iluminación , Exposición Profesional , Lugar de Trabajo , Medición de Riesgo/métodos , Humanos , Exposición Profesional/análisis
7.
BMJ Health Care Inform ; 29(1)2022 Aug.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35922094

RESUMEN

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the impact on efficiency and quality of preprostatectomy multidisciplinary therapy conferences (MDT) at Karolinska University Hospital related to the use of a digital solution compared with standard of care. Further, to explore whether gains in MDT efficiency and quality impact oncological or functional patient outcomes. METHODS: We conducted a prospective, observational study of preoperative prostate cancer MDT at Karolinska between February 2017 and March 2021, including 1329 patients. We compared efficiency and quality of the standard MDT and the MDT using the digital solution IntelliSpace Precision Medicine Multidisciplinary Team Orchestrator (ISPM) based on the previously used MDT-MODe approach. Clinical and patient-reported functional outcomes were derived from the medical records and the Swedish National Prostate Cancer Register. RESULTS: While ISPM was used during the MDT meeting, the time spent per patient was reduced by 24% (p<0.001) and most of the MDT-MODe items were scored significantly higher. There was a reduction in pelvic lymph-node dissection procedures in the ISPM cohort (p=0.001) and an increased proportion of unilateral nerve-sparing procedures (p=0.005), while all other outcome-related measures were not significantly different between the two patient groups. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION: To increase the value of the MDT, all data relevant for treatment decision need to be purposefully presented and compiled, which also enables secondary use of the data.The use of a digital solution during preoperative MDTs for prostate cancer decision making at Karolinska University Hospital improved the efficiency and quality of this multidisciplinary team meeting without impacting patient outcomes.


Asunto(s)
Grupo de Atención al Paciente , Neoplasias de la Próstata , Toma de Decisiones , Humanos , Masculino , Estudios Prospectivos , Neoplasias de la Próstata/terapia
8.
PLoS One ; 17(5): e0268019, 2022.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35507605

RESUMEN

It is puzzling how altruistic punishment of defectors can evolve in large groups of nonrelatives, since punishers should voluntarily bear individual costs of punishing to benefit those who do not pay the costs. Although two distinct mechanisms have been proposed to explain the puzzle, namely voluntary participation and group-level competition and selection, insights into their joint effects have been less clear. Here we investigated what could be combined effects of these two mechanisms on the evolution of altruistic punishment and how these effects can vary with nonparticipants' individual payoff and group size. We modelled altruistic punishers as those who contribute to a public good and impose a fine on each defector, i.e., they are neither pure punishers nor excluders. Our simulation results show that voluntary participation has negative effects on the evolution of cooperation in small groups regardless of nonparticipants' payoffs, while in large groups it has positive effects within only a limited range of nonparticipants' payoff. We discuss that such asymmetric effects could be explained by evolutionary forces emerging from voluntary participation. Lastly, we suggest that insights from social science disciplines studying the exit option could enrich voluntary participation models.


Asunto(s)
Teoría del Juego , Castigo , Altruismo , Evolución Biológica , Conducta Cooperativa , Procesos de Grupo
9.
Comput Econ ; 59(1): 1-25, 2022.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33162678

RESUMEN

The extent to which employees change jobs, known as the job mobility rate, has been steadily declining in the US for decades. This decline is understood to have a negative impact on both productivity and wages, and econometric studies fail to support any single cause brought forward. This decline coincides with decreases in household savings, increases in household debt and wage stagnation. We propose that the decline could be the consequence of a complex interaction between mobility, savings, wages and debt, such that if changing jobs incurs costs which are paid out of savings, or incurs debt in the absence of sufficient savings, a negative feedback loop is generated. People are further restricted in making moves by their debt obligations and inability to save, which in turn depresses wages further. To explore this hypothesis, we developed a stylized model in which agents chose their employment situation based on their opportunities and preferences for work and where there are costs to changing jobs and the possibility of borrowing to meet those costs. We indeed found evidence of a negative feedback loop involving changes, wages, savings and debt, as well as evidence that this dynamic results in a level of wealth inequality on the same scale as we see today in the US.

10.
Environ Model Softw ; 134: 104873, 2020 Dec.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32958993

RESUMEN

Being able to replicate research results is the hallmark of science. Replication of research findings using computational models should, in principle, be possible. In this manuscript, we assess code sharing and model documentation practices of 7500 publications about individual-based and agent-based models. The code availability increased over the years, up to 18% in 2018. Model documentation does not include all the elements that could improve the transparency of the models, such as mathematical equations, flow charts, and pseudocode. We find that articles with equations and flow charts being cited more among other model papers, probably because the model documentation is more transparent. The practices of code sharing improve slowly over time, partly due to the emergence of more public repositories and archives, and code availability requirements by journals and sponsors. However, a significant change in norms and habits need to happen before computational modeling becomes a reproducible science.

11.
Sci Rep ; 10(1): 4136, 2020 03 05.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32139800

RESUMEN

Tipping point dynamics are fundamental drivers for sustainable transition pathways of social-ecological systems (SES). Current research predominantly analyzes how crossing tipping points causes regime shifts, however, the analysis of potential transition pathways from these social and ecological tipping points is often overlooked. In this paper, we analyze transition pathways and the potential outcomes that these may lead to via a stylized model of a system composed of interacting agents exploiting resources and, by extension, the overall ecosystem. Interactions between the social and the ecological system are based on a perception-exploitation framework. We show that the presence of tipping points in SES may yield counter-intuitive social-ecological transition pathways. For example, the high perception of an alarming ecological state among agents can provide short-term ecological benefits, but can be less effective in the long term, compared to a low-perception condition. This work also highlights how understanding non-linear interactions is critical for defining suitable transition pathways of any SES.

12.
J Environ Manage ; 241: 407-417, 2019 Jul 01.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31030122

RESUMEN

Urban adaptation to climate change is likely to emerge from the responses of residents, authorities, and infrastructure providers to the impact of flooding, water scarcity, and other climate-related hazards. These responses are, in part, modulated by political relationships under cultural norms that dominate the institutional and collective decisions of public and private actors. The legacy of these decisions, which are often associated with investment in hard and soft infrastructure, has lasting consequences that influence current and future vulnerabilities. Making those decisions visible, and tractable is, therefore, an urgent research and political challenge in vulnerability assessments. In this work, we present a modeling framework to explore scenarios of institutional decision-making and socio-political processes and the resultant effects on spatial patterns of vulnerability. The approach entails using multi-criteria decision analysis, agent-based models, and geographic information simulation. The approach allows for the exploration of uncertainties, spatial patterns, thresholds, and the sensitivities of vulnerability outcomes to different policy scenarios. Here, we present the operationalization of the framework through an intentionally simplified model example of the governance of water in Mexico City. We discuss results from this example as part of a larger effort to empirically implement the framework to explore sociohydrological risk patterns and trade-offs of vulnerability in real urban landscapes.


Asunto(s)
Cambio Climático , Inundaciones , Ciudades , Toma de Decisiones , México
13.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 116(12): 5277-5284, 2019 03 19.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30111542

RESUMEN

Maintaining safe operating spaces for exploited natural systems in the face of uncertainty is a key sustainability challenge. This challenge can be viewed as a problem in which human society must navigate in a limited space of acceptable futures in which humans enjoy sufficient well-being and avoid crossing planetary boundaries. A critical obstacle is the nature of society as a controller with endogenous dynamics affected by knowledge, values, and decision-making fallacies. We outline an approach for analyzing the role of knowledge infrastructure in maintaining safe operating spaces. Using a classic natural resource problem as an illustration, we find that a small safe operating space exists that is insensitive to the type of policy implementation, while in general, a larger safe operating space exists which is dependent on the implementation of the "right" policy. Our analysis suggests the importance of considering societal response dynamics to varying policy instruments in defining the shape of safe operating spaces.


Asunto(s)
Conservación de los Recursos Naturales/legislación & jurisprudencia , Ecosistema , Desarrollo Sostenible/legislación & jurisprudencia , Toma de Decisiones , Humanos , Conocimiento , Incertidumbre
14.
J Environ Manage ; 227: 200-208, 2018 Dec 01.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30193209

RESUMEN

Residents of Mexico City experience major hydrological risks, including flooding events and insufficient potable water access for many households. A participatory modeling project, MEGADAPT, examines hydrological risk as co-constructed by both biophysical and social factors and aims to explore alternative scenarios of governance. Within the model, neighborhoods are represented as agents that take actions to reduce their sensitivity to exposure and risk. These risk management actions (to protect their households against flooding and scarcity) are based upon insights derived from focus group discussions within various neighborhoods. We developed a role-playing game based on the model's rules in order to validate the assumptions we made about residents' decision-making given that we had translated qualitative information from focus group sessions into a quantitative model algorithm. This enables us to qualitatively validate the perspective and experience of residents in an agent-based model mid-way through the modeling process. Within the context of described hydrological events and the causes of these events, residents took on the role of themselves in the game and were asked to make decisions about how to protect their households against scarcity and flooding. After the game, we facilitated a discussion with residents about whether or not the game was realistic and how it could be improved. The game helped to validate our assumptions, validate the model with community members, and reinforced our connection with the community. We then discuss the potential further development of the game as a learning and communication tool.


Asunto(s)
Inundaciones , Hidrología , Gestión de Riesgos , Toma de Decisiones , México
15.
Health Phys ; 113(5): 335-346, 2017 11.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-28961581

RESUMEN

Arc welding is accompanied by intense optical radiation emission that can be detrimental not only for the welder himself but also for people working nearby or for passersby. Technological progress advances continuously in the field of joining, so an up-to-date radiation database is necessary. Additionally, many literature irradiance data have been measured for a few welding currents or for parts of the optical spectral region only. Within this paper, a comprehensive study of contemporary metal active gas, metal inert gas, and cold metal transfer welding is presented covering optical radiation emission from 200 up to 2,700 nm by means of (spectro-) radiometric measurements. The investigated welding currents range from 70 to 350 A, reflecting values usually applied in industry. Based upon these new irradiance data, three mathematical models were derived in order to describe optical radiation emission as a function of welding power. The linear, exponential, and sigmoidal emission models depend on the process variant (standard or pulsed) as well as on the welding material (mild and stainless steel, aluminum). In conjunction with the corresponding exposure limit values for incoherent optical radiation maximum permissible exposure durations were calculated as a function of welding power. Typical times are shorter than 1 s for the ultraviolet spectral region and range from 1 to 10 s for visible radiation. For the infrared regime, exposure durations are of the order of minutes to hours. Finally, a validation of the metal active gas emission models was carried out with manual arc welding.


Asunto(s)
Gases , Metales , Modelos Teóricos , Exposición Profesional/análisis , Fenómenos Ópticos , Soldadura , Rayos Infrarrojos , Rayos Ultravioleta
16.
Sci Rep ; 7: 42061, 2017 02 07.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-28169336

RESUMEN

The planetary boundary framework constitutes an opportunity for decision makers to define climate policy through the lens of adaptive governance. Here, we use the DICE model to analyze the set of adaptive climate policies that comply with the two planetary boundaries related to climate change: (1) staying below a CO2 concentration of 550 ppm until 2100 and (2) returning to 350 ppm in 2100. Our results enable decision makers to assess the following milestones: (1) a minimum of 33% reduction of CO2 emissions by 2055 in order to stay below 550 ppm by 2100 (this milestone goes up to 46% in the case of delayed policies); and (2) carbon neutrality and the effective implementation of innovative geoengineering technologies (10% negative emissions) before 2060 in order to return to 350 ppm in 2100, under the assumption of getting out of the baseline scenario without delay. Finally, we emphasize the need to use adaptive path-based approach instead of single point target for climate policy design.


Asunto(s)
Dióxido de Carbono/análisis , Cambio Climático/estadística & datos numéricos , Modelos Estadísticos , Emisiones de Vehículos/prevención & control , Dióxido de Carbono/química , Planeta Tierra , Efecto Invernadero , Humanos , Cooperación Internacional , Emisiones de Vehículos/análisis
18.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 114(5): 921-925, 2017 01 31.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-28096383

RESUMEN

Smallholder agricultural systems, strongly dependent on water resources and investments in shared infrastructure, make a significant contribution to food security in developing countries. These communities are being increasingly integrated into the global economy and are exposed to new global climate-related risks that may affect their willingness to cooperate in community-level collective action problems. We performed field experiments on public goods with private and collective risks in 118 small-scale rice-producing communities in four countries. Our results indicate that increasing the integration of those communities with the broader economic system is associated with lower investments in public goods when facing collective risks. These findings indicate that local public good provision may be negatively affected by collective risks, especially in communities more integrated with the market economy.


Asunto(s)
Agricultura , Participación de la Comunidad , Abastecimiento de Alimentos , Adulto , China , Cambio Climático , Colombia , Humanos , Nepal , Oryza , Riesgo , Tailandia
19.
Nat Hum Behav ; 1(9): 624-625, 2017 Sep.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31024142
20.
PLoS One ; 11(12): e0168934, 2016.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-27992605

RESUMEN

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0149151.].

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