Potential impact of annual vaccination with reformulated COVID-19 vaccines: Lessons from the US COVID-19 scenario modeling hub.

BACKGROUND: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) continues to cause significant hospitalizations and deaths in the United States. Its continued burden and the impact of annually reformulated vaccines remain unclear. Here, we present projections of COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths in the United States for the next 2 years under 2 plausible assumptions about immune escape (20% per year and 50% per year) and 3 possible CDC recommendations for the use of annually reformulated vaccines (no recommendation, vaccination for those aged 65 years and over, vaccination for all eligible age groups based on FDA approval). METHODS AND FINDINGS: The COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub solicited projections of COVID-19 hospitalization and deaths between April 15, 2023 and April 15, 2025 under 6 scenarios representing the intersection of considered levels of immune escape and vaccination. Annually reformulated vaccines are assumed to be 65% effective against symptomatic infection with strains circulating on June 15 of each year and to become available on September 1. Age- and state-specific coverage in recommended groups was assumed to match that seen for the first (fall 2021) COVID-19 booster. State and national projections from 8 modeling teams were ensembled to produce projections for each scenario and expected reductions in disease outcomes due to vaccination over the projection period. From April 15, 2023 to April 15, 2025, COVID-19 is projected to cause annual epidemics peaking November to January. In the most pessimistic scenario (high immune escape, no vaccination recommendation), we project 2.1 million (90% projection interval (PI) [1,438,000, 4,270,000]) hospitalizations and 209,000 (90% PI [139,000, 461,000]) deaths, exceeding pre-pandemic mortality of influenza and pneumonia. In high immune escape scenarios, vaccination of those aged 65+ results in 230,000 (95% confidence interval (CI) [104,000, 355,000]) fewer hospitalizations and 33,000 (95% CI [12,000, 54,000]) fewer deaths, while vaccination of all eligible individuals results in 431,000 (95% CI: 264,000-598,000) fewer hospitalizations and 49,000 (95% CI [29,000, 69,000]) fewer deaths. CONCLUSIONS: COVID-19 is projected to be a significant public health threat over the coming 2 years. Broad vaccination has the potential to substantially reduce the burden of this disease, saving tens of thousands of lives each year.

Potential impact of annual vaccination with reformulated COVID-19 vaccines: lessons from the U.S. COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub.

Importance: COVID-19 continues to cause significant hospitalizations and deaths in the United States. Its continued burden and the impact of annually reformulated vaccines remain unclear. Objective: To project COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths from April 2023-April 2025 under two plausible assumptions about immune escape (20% per year and 50% per year) and three possible CDC recommendations for the use of annually reformulated vaccines (no vaccine recommendation, vaccination for those aged 65+, vaccination for all eligible groups). Design: The COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub solicited projections of COVID-19 hospitalization and deaths between April 15, 2023-April 15, 2025 under six scenarios representing the intersection of considered levels of immune escape and vaccination. State and national projections from eight modeling teams were ensembled to produce projections for each scenario. Setting: The entire United States. Participants: None. Exposure: Annually reformulated vaccines assumed to be 65% effective against strains circulating on June 15 of each year and to become available on September 1. Age and state specific coverage in recommended groups was assumed to match that seen for the first (fall 2021) COVID-19 booster. Main outcomes and measures: Ensemble estimates of weekly and cumulative COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths. Expected relative and absolute reductions in hospitalizations and deaths due to vaccination over the projection period. Results: From April 15, 2023-April 15, 2025, COVID-19 is projected to cause annual epidemics peaking November-January. In the most pessimistic scenario (high immune escape, no vaccination recommendation), we project 2.1 million (90% PI: 1,438,000-4,270,000) hospitalizations and 209,000 (90% PI: 139,000-461,000) deaths, exceeding pre-pandemic mortality of influenza and pneumonia. In high immune escape scenarios, vaccination of those aged 65+ results in 230,000 (95% CI: 104,000-355,000) fewer hospitalizations and 33,000 (95% CI: 12,000-54,000) fewer deaths, while vaccination of all eligible individuals results in 431,000 (95% CI: 264,000-598,000) fewer hospitalizations and 49,000 (95% CI: 29,000-69,000) fewer deaths. Conclusion and Relevance: COVID-19 is projected to be a significant public health threat over the coming two years. Broad vaccination has the potential to substantially reduce the burden of this disease.

Echinoderm radial glia in adult cell renewal, indeterminate growth, and regeneration.

Echinoderms are a phylum of marine deterostomes with a range of interesting biological features. One remarkable ability is their impressive capacity to regenerate most of their adult tissues, including the central nervous system (CNS). The research community has accumulated data that demonstrates that, in spite of the pentaradial adult body plan, echinoderms share deep similarities with their bilateral sister taxa such as hemichordates and chordates. Some of the new data reveal the complexity of the nervous system in echinoderms. In terms of the cellular architecture, one of the traits that is shared between the CNS of echinoderms and chordates is the presence of radial glia. In chordates, these cells act as the main progenitor population in CNS development. In mammals, radial glia are spent in embryogenesis and are no longer present in adults, being replaced with other neural cell types. In non-mammalian chordates, they are still detected in the mature CNS along with other types of glia. In echinoderms, radial glia also persist into the adulthood, but unlike in chordates, it is the only known glial cell type that is present in the fully developed CNS. The echinoderm radial glia is a multifunctional cell type. Radial glia forms the supporting scaffold of the neuroepithelium, exhibits secretory activity, clears up dying or damaged cells by phagocytosis, and, most importantly, acts as a major progenitor cell population. The latter function is critical for the outstanding developmental plasticity of the adult echinoderm CNS, including physiological cell turnover, indeterminate growth, and a remarkable capacity to regenerate major parts following autotomy or traumatic injury. In this review we summarize the current knowledge on the organization and function of the echinoderm radial glia, with a focus on the role of this cell type in adult neurogenesis.

Phylogeny, ancestral ranges and reclassification of sand dollars.

Classification of the Class Echinoidea is under significant revision in light of emerging molecular phylogenetic evidence. In particular, the sister-group relationships within the superorder Luminacea (Echinoidea: Irregularia) have been considerably updated. However, the placement of many families remains largely unresolved due to a series of incongruent evidence obtained from morphological, paleontological, and genetic data for the majority of extant representatives. In this study, we investigated the phylogenetic relationships of 25 taxa, belonging to eleven luminacean families. We proposed three new superfamilies: Astriclypeoidea, Mellitoidea, and Taiwanasteroidea (including Dendrasteridae, Taiwanasteridae, Scutellidae, and Echinarachniidae), instead of the currently recognized superfamily Scutelloidea Gray, 1825. In light of the new data obtained from ten additional species, the historical biogeography reconstructed shows that the tropical western Pacific and eastern Indian Oceans are the cradle for early sand dollar diversification. Hothouse conditions during the late Cretaceous and early Paleogene were coupled with diversification events of major clades of sand dollars. We also demonstrate that Taiwan fauna can play a key role in terms of understanding the major Cenozoic migration and dispersal events in the evolutionary history of Luminacea.

Content and sentiment surveillance (CSI): A critical component for modeling modern epidemics.

Comprehensive surveillance systems are the key to provide accurate data for effective modeling. Traditional symptom-based case surveillance has been joined with recent genomic, serologic, and environment surveillance to provide more integrated disease surveillance systems. A major gap in comprehensive disease surveillance is to accurately monitor potential population behavioral changes in real-time. Population-wide behaviors such as compliance with various interventions and vaccination acceptance significantly influence and drive the overall epidemic dynamics in the society. Original infoveillance utilizes online query data (e.g., Google and Wikipedia search of a specific content topic such as an epidemic) and later focuses on large volumes of online discourse data about the from social media platforms and further augments epidemic modeling. It mainly uses number of posts to approximate public awareness of the disease, and further compares with observed epidemic dynamics for better projection. The current COVID-19 pandemic shows that there is an urgency to further harness the rich, detailed content and sentiment information, which can provide more accurate and granular information on public awareness and perceptions toward multiple aspects of the disease, especially various interventions. In this perspective paper, we describe a novel conceptual analytical framework of content and sentiment infoveillance (CSI) and integration with epidemic modeling. This CSI framework includes data retrieval and pre-processing; information extraction via natural language processing to identify and quantify detailed time, location, content, and sentiment information; and integrating infoveillance with common epidemic modeling techniques of both mechanistic and data-driven methods. CSI complements and significantly enhances current epidemic models for more informed decision by integrating behavioral aspects from detailed, instantaneous infoveillance from massive social media data.

Multiple models for outbreak decision support in the face of uncertainty.

Policymakers must make management decisions despite incomplete knowledge and conflicting model projections. Little guidance exists for the rapid, representative, and unbiased collection of policy-relevant scientific input from independent modeling teams. Integrating approaches from decision analysis, expert judgment, and model aggregation, we convened multiple modeling teams to evaluate COVID-19 reopening strategies for a mid-sized United States county early in the pandemic. Projections from seventeen distinct models were inconsistent in magnitude but highly consistent in ranking interventions. The 6-mo-ahead aggregate projections were well in line with observed outbreaks in mid-sized US counties. The aggregate results showed that up to half the population could be infected with full workplace reopening, while workplace restrictions reduced median cumulative infections by 82%. Rankings of interventions were consistent across public health objectives, but there was a strong trade-off between public health outcomes and duration of workplace closures, and no win-win intermediate reopening strategies were identified. Between-model variation was high; the aggregate results thus provide valuable risk quantification for decision making. This approach can be applied to the evaluation of management interventions in any setting where models are used to inform decision making. This case study demonstrated the utility of our approach and was one of several multimodel efforts that laid the groundwork for the COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub, which has provided multiple rounds of real-time scenario projections for situational awareness and decision making to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention since December 2020.

Genetic variations of Plasmodium falciparum circumsporozoite protein and the impact on interactions with human immunoproteins and malaria vaccine efficacy.

In October 2021, the world's first malaria vaccine RTS,S was endorsed by WHO for broad use in children, despite its low efficacy. This study examined polyclonal infections and the associations of parasite genetic variations with binding affinity to human leukocyte antigen (HLA). Multiplicity of infection was determined by amplicon deep sequencing of PfMSP1. Genetic variations in PfCSP were examined across 88 samples from Ghana and analyzed together with 1655 PfCSP sequences from other African and non-African isolates. Binding interactions of PfCSP peptide variants and HLA were predicted using NetChop and HADDOCK. High polyclonality was detected among infections, with each infection harboring multiple non-3D7 PfCSP variants. Twenty-seven PfCSP haplotypes were detected in the Ghanaian samples, and they broadly represented PfCSP diversity across Africa. The number of genetic differences between 3D7 and non-3D7 PfCSP variants does not influence binding to HLA. However, CSP peptide length after proteolytic degradation significantly affects its molecular weight and binding affinity to HLA. Despite the high diversity of HLA, the majority of the HLAI and II alleles interacted/bound with all Ghana CSP peptides. Multiple non-3D7 strains among P. falciparum infections could impact the effectiveness of RTS,S. Longer peptides of the Th2R/Th3R CSP regions should be considered in future versions of RTS,S.

Implementing landscape genetics in molecular epidemiology to determine drivers of vector-borne disease: A malaria case study.

This study employs landscape genetics to investigate the environmental drivers of a deadly vector-borne disease, malaria caused by Plasmodium falciparum, in a more spatially comprehensive manner than any previous work. With 1804 samples from 44 sites collected in western Kenya in 2012 and 2013, we performed resistance surface analysis to show that Lake Victoria acts as a barrier to transmission between areas north and south of the Winam Gulf. In addition, Mantel correlograms clearly showed significant correlations between genetic and geographic distance over short distances (less than 70 km). In both cases, we used an identity-by-state measure of relatedness tailored to find highly related individual parasites in order to focus on recent gene flow that is more relevant to disease transmission. To supplement these results, we performed conventional population genetics analyses, including Bayesian clustering methods and spatial ordination techniques. These analyses revealed some differentiation on the basis of geography and elevation and a cluster of genetic similarity in the lowlands north of the Winam Gulf of Lake Victoria. Taken as a whole, these results indicate low overall genetic differentiation in the Lake Victoria region, but with some separation of parasite populations north and south of the Winam Gulf that is explained by the presence of the lake as a geographic barrier to gene flow. We recommend similar landscape genetics analyses in future molecular epidemiology studies of vector-borne diseases to extend and contextualize the results of traditional population genetics.

Impact of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination of children ages 5-11 years on COVID-19 disease burden and resilience to new variants in the United States, November 2021-March 2022: A multi-model study.

Background: The COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub convened nine modeling teams to project the impact of expanding SARS-CoV-2 vaccination to children aged 5-11 years on COVID-19 burden and resilience against variant strains. Methods: Teams contributed state- and national-level weekly projections of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in the United States from September 12, 2021 to March 12, 2022. Four scenarios covered all combinations of 1) vaccination (or not) of children aged 5-11 years (starting November 1, 2021), and 2) emergence (or not) of a variant more transmissible than the Delta variant (emerging November 15, 2021). Individual team projections were linearly pooled. The effect of childhood vaccination on overall and age-specific outcomes was estimated using meta-analyses. Findings: Assuming that a new variant would not emerge, all-age COVID-19 outcomes were projected to decrease nationally through mid-March 2022. In this setting, vaccination of children 5-11 years old was associated with reductions in projections for all-age cumulative cases (7.2%, mean incidence ratio [IR] 0.928, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.880-0.977), hospitalizations (8.7%, mean IR 0.913, 95% CI 0.834-0.992), and deaths (9.2%, mean IR 0.908, 95% CI 0.797-1.020) compared with scenarios without childhood vaccination. Vaccine benefits increased for scenarios including a hypothesized more transmissible variant, assuming similar vaccine effectiveness. Projected relative reductions in cumulative outcomes were larger for children than for the entire population. State-level variation was observed. Interpretation: Given the scenario assumptions (defined before the emergence of Omicron), expanding vaccination to children 5-11 years old would provide measurable direct benefits, as well as indirect benefits to the all-age U.S. population, including resilience to more transmissible variants. Funding: Various (see acknowledgments).

EchinoDB: an update to the web-based application for genomic and transcriptomic data on echinoderms.

BACKGROUND: Here we release a new version of EchinoDB, EchinoDB v2.0 ( https://echinodb.uncc.edu ). EchinoDB is a database of genomic and transcriptomic data on echinoderms. The initial database consisted of groups of 749,397 orthologous and paralogous transcripts arranged in orthoclusters by sequence similarity. RESULTS: The updated version of EchinoDB includes two new major datasets: the RNA-Seq data of the brittle star Ophioderma brevispinum and the high-quality genomic assembly data of the green sea urchin Lytechinus variegatus. In addition, we enabled keyword searches for annotated data and installed an updated version of Sequenceserver to allow Basic Local Alignment Search Tool (BLAST) searches. The data are downloadable in FASTA format. The first version of EchinoDB appeared in 2016 and was implemented in GO on a local server. The new version has been updated using R Shiny to include new features and improvements in the application. Furthermore, EchinoDB now runs entirely in the cloud for increased reliability and scaling. CONCLUSION: EchinoDB serves a user base drawn from the fields of phylogenetics, developmental biology, genomics, physiology, neurobiology, and regeneration. As use cases, we illustrate the function of EchinoDB in retrieving components of signaling pathways involved in the tissue regeneration process of different echinoderms, including the emerging model species Ophioderma brevispinum. Moreover, we use EchinoDB to shed light on the conservation of the molecular components involved in two echinoderm-specific phenomena: spicule matrix proteins involved in the formation of stereom endoskeleton and the tensilin protein that contributes to the capacity of the connective tissues to quickly change its mechanical properties. The genes involved in the former had been previously studied in echinoids, while gene sequences involved in the latter had been previously described in holothuroids. Specifically, we ask (a) if the biomineralization-related proteins previously reported only in sea urchins are also present in other, non-echinoid, echinoderms and (b) if tensilin, the protein responsible for the control of stiffness of the mutable collagenous tissue, previously described in sea cucumbers, is conserved across the phylum.

Twinkle twinkle brittle star: the draft genome of Ophioderma brevispinum (Echinodermata: Ophiuroidea) as a resource for regeneration research.

BACKGROUND: Echinoderms are established models in experimental and developmental biology, however genomic resources are still lacking for many species. Here, we present the draft genome of Ophioderma brevispinum, an emerging model organism in the field of regenerative biology. This new genomic resource provides a reference for experimental studies of regenerative mechanisms. RESULTS: We report a de novo nuclear genome assembly for the brittle star O. brevispinum and annotation facilitated by the transcriptome assembly. The final assembly is 2.68 Gb in length and contains 146,703 predicted protein-coding gene models. We also report a mitochondrial genome for this species, which is 15,831 bp in length, and contains 13 protein-coding, 22 tRNAs, and 2 rRNAs genes, respectively. In addition, 29 genes of the Notch signaling pathway are identified to illustrate the practical utility of the assembly for studies of regeneration. CONCLUSIONS: The sequenced and annotated genome of O. brevispinum presented here provides the first such resource for an ophiuroid model species. Considering the remarkable regenerative capacity of this species, this genome will be an essential resource in future research efforts on molecular mechanisms regulating regeneration.

Projected resurgence of COVID-19 in the United States in July-December 2021 resulting from the increased transmissibility of the Delta variant and faltering vaccination.

In Spring 2021, the highly transmissible SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant began to cause increases in cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in parts of the United States. At the time, with slowed vaccination uptake, this novel variant was expected to increase the risk of pandemic resurgence in the US in summer and fall 2021. As part of the COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub, an ensemble of nine mechanistic models produced 6-month scenario projections for July-December 2021 for the United States. These projections estimated substantial resurgences of COVID-19 across the US resulting from the more transmissible Delta variant, projected to occur across most of the US, coinciding with school and business reopening. The scenarios revealed that reaching higher vaccine coverage in July-December 2021 reduced the size and duration of the projected resurgence substantially, with the expected impacts was largely concentrated in a subset of states with lower vaccination coverage. Despite accurate projection of COVID-19 surges occurring and timing, the magnitude was substantially underestimated 2021 by the models compared with the of the reported cases, hospitalizations, and deaths occurring during July-December, highlighting the continued challenges to predict the evolving COVID-19 pandemic. Vaccination uptake remains critical to limiting transmission and disease, particularly in states with lower vaccination coverage. Higher vaccination goals at the onset of the surge of the new variant were estimated to avert over 1.5 million cases and 21,000 deaths, although may have had even greater impacts, considering the underestimated resurgence magnitude from the model.

A subterminal growth zone at arm tip likely underlies life-long indeterminate growth in brittle stars.

BACKGROUND: Echinoderms are a phylum of marine invertebrates with close phylogenetic relationships to chordates. Many members of the phylum Echinodermata are capable of extensive post-traumatic regeneration and life-long indeterminate growth. Different from regeneration, the life-long elongation of the main body axis in adult echinoderms has received little attention. The anatomical location and the nature of the dividing progenitor cells contributing to adults' growth is unknown. RESULTS: We show that the proliferating cells that drive the life-long growth of adult brittle star arms are mostly localized to the subterminal (second from the tip) arm segment. Each of the major anatomical structures contains dividing progenitors. These structures include: the radial nerve, water-vascular canal, and arm coelomic wall. Some of those proliferating progenitor cells are capable of multiple rounds of cell division. Within the nervous system, the progenitor cells were identified as a subset of radial glial cells that do not express Brn1/2/4, a transcription factor with a conserved role in the neuronal fate specification. In addition to characterizing the growth zone and the nature of the precursor cells, we provide a description of the microanatomy of the four distal-most arm segments contrasting the distal with the proximal segments, which are more mature. CONCLUSIONS: The growth of the adult brittle star arms occurs via proliferation of progenitor cells in the distal segments, which are most abundant in the second segment from the tip. At least some of the progenitors are capable of multiple rounds of cell division. Within the nervous system the dividing cells were identified as Brn1/2/4-negative radial glial cells.

Impact of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination of children ages 5-11 years on COVID-19 disease burden and resilience to new variants in the United States, November 2021-March 2022: a multi-model study.

Background: SARS-CoV-2 vaccination of persons aged 12 years and older has reduced disease burden in the United States. The COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub convened multiple modeling teams in September 2021 to project the impact of expanding vaccine administration to children 5-11 years old on anticipated COVID-19 burden and resilience against variant strains. Methods: Nine modeling teams contributed state- and national-level projections for weekly counts of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in the United States for the period September 12, 2021 to March 12, 2022. Four scenarios covered all combinations of: 1) presence vs. absence of vaccination of children ages 5-11 years starting on November 1, 2021; and 2) continued dominance of the Delta variant vs. emergence of a hypothetical more transmissible variant on November 15, 2021. Individual team projections were combined using linear pooling. The effect of childhood vaccination on overall and age-specific outcomes was estimated by meta-analysis approaches. Findings: Absent a new variant, COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths among all ages were projected to decrease nationally through mid-March 2022. Under a set of specific assumptions, models projected that vaccination of children 5-11 years old was associated with reductions in all-age cumulative cases (7.2%, mean incidence ratio [IR] 0.928, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.880-0.977), hospitalizations (8.7%, mean IR 0.913, 95% CI 0.834-0.992), and deaths (9.2%, mean IR 0.908, 95% CI 0.797-1.020) compared with scenarios where children were not vaccinated. This projected effect of vaccinating children 5-11 years old increased in the presence of a more transmissible variant, assuming no change in vaccine effectiveness by variant. Larger relative reductions in cumulative cases, hospitalizations, and deaths were observed for children than for the entire U.S. population. Substantial state-level variation was projected in epidemic trajectories, vaccine benefits, and variant impacts. Conclusions: Results from this multi-model aggregation study suggest that, under a specific set of scenario assumptions, expanding vaccination to children 5-11 years old would provide measurable direct benefits to this age group and indirect benefits to the all-age U.S. population, including resilience to more transmissible variants.

Analysis of the Knockdown Resistance Locus (kdr) in Anopheles stephensi, An. arabiensis, and Culex pipiens s.l. for Insight Into the Evolution of Target-site Pyrethroid Resistance in Eastern Ethiopia.

The malaria vector, Anopheles stephensi, which is typically restricted to South Asia and the Middle East, was recently detected in the Horn of Africa. Addressing the spread of this vector could involve integrated vector control that considers the status of insecticide resistance of multiple vector species in the region. Previous reports indicate that the knockdown resistance mutations (kdr) in the voltage-gated sodium channel (vgsc) are absent in both pyrethroid-resistant and pyrethroid-sensitive An. stephensi in eastern Ethiopia; however, similar information about other vector species in the same areas is limited. In this study, kdr and the neighboring intron were analyzed in An. stephensi, An. arabiensis, and Culex pipiens s.l. collected between 2016 and 2017 to determine the evolutionary history of kdr in eastern Ethiopia. A sequence analysis revealed that all of Cx. pipiens s.l. (N = 42) and 71.6% of the An. arabiensis (N = 67) carried kdr L1014F, which is known to confer target-site pyrethroid resistance. Intronic variation was only observed in An. stephensi (six segregating sites, three haplotypes), which was previously shown to have no kdr mutations. In addition, no evidence of non-neutral evolutionary processes was detected at the An. stephensi kdr intron, thereby further supporting the target-site mechanism not being a major resistance mechanism in this An. stephensi population. Overall, these results show key differences in the evolution of target-site pyrethroid/dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane resistance mutations in populations of vector species from the same region. Variations in insecticide resistance mechanism profiles between eastern Ethiopian mosquito vectors may lead to different responses to insecticides used in integrated vector control.

Low Density Plasmodium Infections and G6PD Deficiency Among Malaria Suspected Febrile Individuals in Ethiopia.

The identification and management of low parasitemia infections have become increasingly challenging for malaria control and elimination. Submicroscopic Plasmodium infections and G6PD deficiency among febrile patients require more sensitive diagnostic methods to improve detection and careful treatment regime of these infections. In Ethiopia, information on the low density submicroscopic malarial infections and frequency of G6PD deficiency (G6PDd) is scarce. In this study, 297 malaria suspected febrile patient samples were collected from health facilities of Bonga town in southwestern Ethiopia. The positivity rates of Plasmodium infection were determined by microscopy and quantitative PCR. G6PD activity level was determined by careSTART™ G6PD biosensor and the frequency of three common variants: G6PD*A (A376G), G6PD*A- (G202A) and Mediterranean (C563T) were investigated. G6PD gene sequencing was performed to detect mutations in exons 2-11 for both G6PD normal and deficient samples based on the phenotypic assay. More than twice Plasmodium infected samples was detected by qPCR (52/297; 17.4%) than microscopy (21/297; 7.0%). About 31 (10%) of the infections were submicroscopic. Bednet usage and age had a significant association with Plasmodium infection. Of the 271 participants who were tested for G6PD phenotype, 19 (7.0%) had low G6PD level. No mutations were observed in A376G, G202A, and C563T in the G6PDd samples, but three novel non-synonymous mutations in exon 2 including a C to T transition at position ChrX:6504 (Arg to Thr), G to T at ChrX:6369 (Ser to IIe), and G to C at ChrX:6664 (Gln to His) were detected. A high number of submicroscopic Plasmodium infections observed in this study pose a challenge for accurate and timely diagnosis, which could hinder malaria control efforts. G6PD deficiency in malaria patients pose danger when treating patients with primaquine. The three novel mutations detected in exon 2 of the G6PD gene merit further investigation on the hemolytic risk when exposed to oxidative antimalarials, their prevalence, and clinical significance.

Genetic diversity of Anopheles stephensi in Ethiopia provides insight into patterns of spread.

BACKGROUND: The recent detection of the South Asian malaria vector Anopheles stephensi in the Horn of Africa (HOA) raises concerns about the impact of this mosquito on malaria transmission in the region. Analysis of An. stephensi genetic diversity and population structure can provide insight into the history of the mosquito in the HOA to improve predictions of future spread. We investigated the genetic diversity of An. stephensi in eastern Ethiopia, where detection suggests a range expansion into this region, in order to understand the history of this invasive population. METHODS: We sequenced the cytochrome oxidase subunit I (COI) and cytochrome B gene (CytB) in 187 An. stephensi collected from 10 sites in Ethiopia in 2018. Population genetic, phylogenetic, and minimum spanning network analyses were conducted for Ethiopian sequences. Molecular identification of blood meal sources was also performed using universal vertebrate CytB sequencing. RESULTS: Six An. stephensi COI-CytB haplotypes were observed, with the highest number of haplotypes in the northeastern sites (Semera, Bati, and Gewana towns) relative to the southeastern sites (Kebridehar, Godey, and Degehabur) in eastern Ethiopia. We observed population differentiation, with the highest differentiation between the northeastern sites compared to central sites (Erer Gota, Dire Dawa, and Awash Sebat Kilo) and the southeastern sites. Phylogenetic and network analysis revealed that the HOA An. stephensi are more genetically similar to An. stephensi from southern Asia than from the Arabian Peninsula. Finally, molecular blood meal analysis revealed evidence of feeding on cows, goats, dogs, and humans, as well as evidence of multiple (mixed) blood meals. CONCLUSION: We show that An. stephensi is genetically diverse in Ethiopia and with evidence of geographical structure. Variation in the level of diversity supports the hypothesis for a more recent introduction of An. stephensi into southeastern Ethiopia relative to the northeastern region. We also find evidence that supports the hypothesis that HOA An. stephensi populations originate from South Asia rather than the Arabian Peninsula. The evidence of both zoophagic and anthropophagic feeding support the need for additional investigation into the potential for livestock movement to play a role in vector spread in this region.

Genetic variation of Plasmodium falciparum histidine-rich protein 2 and 3 in Assosa zone, Ethiopia: its impact on the performance of malaria rapid diagnostic tests.

BACKGROUND: Rapid diagnostic tests (RDT) are commonly used for the diagnosis of malaria caused by Plasmodium falciparum. However, false negative results of RDT caused by genetic variation of P. falciparum histidine-rich protein 2 and 3 genes (pfhrp2/3) threaten existing malaria case management and control efforts. The main objective of this study was to investigate the genetic variations of the pfhrp2/3 genes. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was conducted from malaria symptomatic individuals in 2018 in Assosa zone, Ethiopia. Finger-prick blood samples were collected for RDT and microscopic examination of thick and thin blood films. Dried blood spots (DBS) were used for genomic parasite DNA extraction and molecular detection. Amplification of parasite DNA was made by quantitative PCR. DNA amplicons of pfhrp2/3 were purified and sequenced. RESULTS: The PfHRP2 amino acid repeat type isolates were less conserved compared to the PfHRP3 repeat type. Eleven and eight previously characterized PfHRP2 and PfHRP3 amino acid repeat types were identified, respectively. Type 1, 4 and 7 repeats were shared by PfHRP2 and PfHRP3 proteins. Type 2 repeats were found only in PfHRP2, while types 16 and 17 were found only in PfHRP3 with a high frequency in all isolates. 18 novel repeat types were found in PfHRP2 and 13 novel repeat types were found in PfHRP3 in single or multiple copies per isolate. The positivity rate for PfHRP2 RDT was high, 82.9% in PfHRP2 and 84.3% in PfHRP3 sequence isolates at parasitaemia levels > 250 parasites/µl. Using the Baker model, 100% of the isolates in group A (If product of types 2 × type 7 repeats ≥ 100) and 73.7% of the isolates in group B (If product of types 2 × type 7 repeats 50-99) were predicted to be detected by PfHRP2 RDT at parasitaemia level > 250 parasite/µl. CONCLUSION: The findings of this study indicate the presence of different PfHRP2 and PfHRP3 amino acid repeat including novel repeats in P. falciparum from Ethiopia. These results indicate that there is a need to closely monitor the performance of PfHRP2 RDT associated with the genetic variation of the pfhrp2 and pfhrp3 gene in P. falciparum isolates at the country-wide level.

Fundamental evolution of all Orthocoronavirinae including three deadly lineages descendent from Chiroptera-hosted coronaviruses: SARS-CoV, MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2.

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) emerged in humans in 2002. Despite reports showing Chiroptera as the original animal reservoir of SARS-CoV, many argue that Carnivora-hosted viruses are the most likely origin. The emergence of the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) in 2012 also involves Chiroptera-hosted lineages. However, factors such as the lack of comprehensive phylogenies hamper our understanding of host shifts once MERS-CoV emerged in humans and Artiodactyla. Since 2019, the origin of SARS-CoV-2, causative agent of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), added to this episodic history of zoonotic transmission events. Here we introduce a phylogenetic analysis of 2006 unique and complete genomes of different lineages of Orthocoronavirinae. We used gene annotations to align orthologous sequences for total evidence analysis under the parsimony optimality criterion. Deltacoronavirus and Gammacoronavirus were set as outgroups to understand spillovers of Alphacoronavirus and Betacoronavirus among ten orders of animals. We corroborated that Chiroptera-hosted viruses are the sister group of SARS-CoV, SARS-CoV-2 and MERS-related viruses. Other zoonotic events were qualified and quantified to provide a comprehensive picture of the risk of coronavirus emergence among humans. Finally, we used a 250 SARS-CoV-2 genomes dataset to elucidate the phylogenetic relationship between SARS-CoV-2 and Chiroptera-hosted coronaviruses.