Carbon-phosphorus cycle models overestimate CO2 enrichment response in a mature Eucalyptus forest.

The importance of phosphorus (P) in regulating ecosystem responses to climate change has fostered P-cycle implementation in land surface models, but their CO2 effects predictions have not been evaluated against measurements. Here, we perform a data-driven model evaluation where simulations of eight widely used P-enabled models were confronted with observations from a long-term free-air CO2 enrichment experiment in a mature, P-limited Eucalyptus forest. We show that most models predicted the correct sign and magnitude of the CO2 effect on ecosystem carbon (C) sequestration, but they generally overestimated the effects on plant C uptake and growth. We identify leaf-to-canopy scaling of photosynthesis, plant tissue stoichiometry, plant belowground C allocation, and the subsequent consequences for plant-microbial interaction as key areas in which models of ecosystem C-P interaction can be improved. Together, this data-model intercomparison reveals data-driven insights into the performance and functionality of P-enabled models and adds to the existing evidence that the global CO2-driven carbon sink is overestimated by models.

Microbial competition for phosphorus limits the CO2 response of a mature forest.

The capacity for terrestrial ecosystems to sequester additional carbon (C) with rising CO2 concentrations depends on soil nutrient availability1,2. Previous evidence suggested that mature forests growing on phosphorus (P)-deprived soils had limited capacity to sequester extra biomass under elevated CO2 (refs. 3-6), but uncertainty about ecosystem P cycling and its CO2 response represents a crucial bottleneck for mechanistic prediction of the land C sink under climate change7. Here, by compiling the first comprehensive P budget for a P-limited mature forest exposed to elevated CO2, we show a high likelihood that P captured by soil microorganisms constrains ecosystem P recycling and availability for plant uptake. Trees used P efficiently, but microbial pre-emption of mineralized soil P seemed to limit the capacity of trees for increased P uptake and assimilation under elevated CO2 and, therefore, their capacity to sequester extra C. Plant strategies to stimulate microbial P cycling and plant P uptake, such as increasing rhizosphere C release to soil, will probably be necessary for P-limited forests to increase C capture into new biomass. Our results identify the key mechanisms by which P availability limits CO2 fertilization of tree growth and will guide the development of Earth system models to predict future long-term C storage.

Phosphorus fractions in sediments and their relevance for historical lake eutrophication in the Ponte Tresa basin (Lake Lugano, Switzerland) since 1959.

Lake Lugano is one of several deep lakes in Switzerland that have not yet recovered from eutrophication after large reductions of external phosphorus (P) loadings. Persistent eutrophication has been attributed mainly to internal P loadings from sediments. To achieve the restoration goals, it is critically important to evaluate the sediment P availability and release risk in this lake. In this study, we combined sequential P extraction (four fractions) with enzyme hydrolysis to assess distribution characteristics of P forms and potential bioavailability of organic P in an anoxic sediment profile from the Ponte Tresa basin of Lake Lugano, southern Switzerland. Labile P forms, i.e. mostly redox-sensitive iron bound P and metal oxides bound P (Al/Fe-P), comprised ~70% of total P in the sediment profile (1959-2017 CE), suggesting a high potential for P release from the anoxic sediment. Potentially bioavailable organic P forms (determined by addition of substrate specific enzymes) were considerably higher in the surface sediments (top 5 cm), which is very likely to release P in the near future with early diagenesis. The net burial rates (NBR) of redox sensitive Fe-P fraction and total P in sediments both showed significant decreasing trends from 1959 to 2017 CE, when trophic levels of the lake increased from mesotrophic to hypertrophic status. We suggest that, in the Ponte Tresa basin, higher eutrophication conditions led to enhanced sediment P release (mainly from redox sensitive Fe-P fraction), thus reducing P-NBR in sediments. This study highlights the concern that in deep monomictic lakes, eutrophication restoration might be hindered by extensive internal P cycling and reduced capacity of sediment P-trapping.