Trends and predictions of metabolic risk factors for acute myocardial infarction: findings from a multiethnic nationwide cohort.

Background: Understanding the trajectories of metabolic risk factors for acute myocardial infarction (AMI) is necessary for healthcare policymaking. We estimated future projections of the incidence of metabolic diseases in a multi-ethnic population with AMI. Methods: The incidence and mortality contributed by metabolic risk factors in the population with AMI (diabetes mellitus [T2DM], hypertension, hyperlipidemia, overweight/obesity, active/previous smokers) were projected up to year 2050, using linear and Poisson regression models based on the Singapore Myocardial Infarction Registry from 2007 to 2018. Forecast analysis was stratified based on age, sex and ethnicity. Findings: From 2025 to 2050, the incidence of AMI is predicted to rise by 194.4% from 482 to 1418 per 100,000 population. The largest percentage increase in metabolic risk factors within the population with AMI is projected to be overweight/obesity (880.0% increase), followed by hypertension (248.7% increase), T2DM (215.7% increase), hyperlipidemia (205.0% increase), and active/previous smoking (164.8% increase). The number of AMI-related deaths is expected to increase by 294.7% in individuals with overweight/obesity, while mortality is predicted to decrease by 11.7% in hyperlipidemia, 29.9% in hypertension, 32.7% in T2DM and 49.6% in active/previous smokers, from 2025 to 2050. Compared with Chinese individuals, Indian and Malay individuals bear a disproportionate burden of overweight/obesity incidence and AMI-related mortality. Interpretation: The incidence of AMI is projected to continue rising in the coming decades. Overweight/obesity will emerge as fastest-growing metabolic risk factor and the leading risk factor for AMI-related mortality. Funding: This research was supported by the NUHS Seed Fund (NUHSRO/2022/058/RO5+6/Seed-Mar/03) and National Medical Research Council Research Training Fellowship (MOH-001131). The SMIR is a national, ministry-funded registry run by the National Registry of Diseases Office and funded by the Ministry of Health, Singapore.

Epicardial Adipose Tissue Assessed by Computed Tomography and Echocardiography Are Associated With Adverse Cardiovascular Outcomes: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Epicardial adipose tissue (EAT) has garnered attention as a prognostic and risk stratification factor for cardiovascular disease. This study, via meta-analyses, evaluates the associations between EAT and cardiovascular outcomes stratified across imaging modalities, ethnic groups, and study protocols. METHODS: Medline and Embase databases were searched without date restriction on May 2022 for articles that examined EAT and cardiovascular outcomes. The inclusion criteria were (1) studies measuring EAT of adult patients at baseline and (2) reporting follow-up data on study outcomes of interest. The primary study outcome was major adverse cardiovascular events. Secondary study outcomes included cardiac death, myocardial infarction, coronary revascularization, and atrial fibrillation. RESULTS: Twenty-nine articles published between 2012 and 2022, comprising 19 709 patients, were included in our analysis. Increased EAT thickness and volume were associated with higher risks of cardiac death (odds ratio, 2.53 [95% CI, 1.17-5.44]; P=0.020; n=4), myocardial infarction (odds ratio, 2.63 [95% CI, 1.39-4.96]; P=0.003; n=5), coronary revascularization (odds ratio, 2.99 [95% CI, 1.64-5.44]; P<0.001; n=5), and atrial fibrillation (adjusted odds ratio, 4.04 [95% CI, 3.06-5.32]; P<0.001; n=3). For 1 unit increment in the continuous measure of EAT, computed tomography volumetric quantification (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.74 [95% CI, 1.42-2.13]; P<0.001) and echocardiographic thickness quantification (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.20 [95% CI, 1.09-1.32]; P<0.001) conferred an increased risk of major adverse cardiovascular events. CONCLUSIONS: The utility of EAT as an imaging biomarker for predicting and prognosticating cardiovascular disease is promising, with increased EAT thickness and volume being identified as independent predictors of major adverse cardiovascular events. REGISTRATION: URL: https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero; Unique identifier: CRD42022338075.

Trends and predictions of malnutrition and obesity in 204 countries and territories: an analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

Background: Malnutrition and obesity are interdependent pathologies along the same spectrum. We examined global trends and projections of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and deaths from malnutrition and obesity until 2030. Methods: Using data from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease study involving 204 countries and territories, trends in DALYs and deaths were described for obesity and malnutrition from 2000 to 2019, stratified by geographical regions (as defined by WHO) and Socio-Demographic Index (SDI). Malnutrition was defined according to the 10th revision of International Classification of Diseases codes for nutritional deficiencies, stratified by malnutrition type. Obesity was measured via body mass index (BMI) using metrics related to national and subnational estimates, defined as BMI ≥25 kg/m2. Countries were stratified into low, low-middle, middle, high-middle, and high SDI bands. Regression models were constructed to predict DALYs and mortality up to 2030. Association between age-standardised prevalence of the diseases and mortality was also assessed. Findings: In 2019, age-standardised malnutrition-related DALYs was 680 (95% UI: 507-895) per 100,000 population. DALY rates decreased from 2000 to 2019 (-2.86% annually), projected to fall 8.4% from 2020 to 2030. Africa and low SDI countries observed highest malnutrition-related DALYs. Age-standardised obesity-related DALY estimates were 1933 (95% UI: 1277-2640). Obesity-related DALYs rose 0.48% annually from 2000 to 2019, predicted to increase by 39.8% from 2020 to 2030. Highest obesity-related DALYs were in Eastern Mediterranean and middle SDI countries. Interpretation: The ever-increasing obesity burden, on the backdrop of curbing the malnutrition burden, is predicted to rise further. Funding: None.