Economic evaluation for mass vaccination against COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: Vaccine is supposed to be the most effective means to prevent COVID-19 as it may not only save lives but also reduce productivity loss due to resuming pre-pandemic activities. Providing the results of economic evaluation for mass vaccination is of paramount importance for all stakeholders worldwide. METHODS: We developed a Markov decision tree for the economic evaluation of mass vaccination against COVID-19. The effectiveness of reducing outcomes after the administration of three COVID-19 vaccines (BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech), mRNA-1273 (Moderna), and AZD1222 (Oxford-AstraZeneca)) were modelled with empirical parameters obtained from literatures. The direct cost of vaccine and COVID-19 related medical cost, the indirect cost of productivity loss due to vaccine jabs and hospitalization, and the productivity loss were accumulated given different vaccination scenarios. We reported the incremental cost-utility ratio and benefit/cost (B/C) ratio of three vaccines compared to no vaccination with a probabilistic approach. RESULTS: Moderna and Pfizer vaccines won the greatest effectiveness among the three vaccines under consideration. After taking both direct and indirect costs into account, all of the three vaccines dominated no vaccination strategy. The results of B/C ratio show that one dollar invested in vaccine would have USD $13, USD $23, and USD $28 in return for Moderna, Pfizer, and AstraZeneca, respectively when health and education loss are considered. The corresponding figures taking value of the statistical life into account were USD $176, USD $300, and USD $443. CONCLUSION: Mass vaccination against COVID-19 with three current available vaccines is cost-saving for gaining more lives and less cost incurred.

Continental transmission of emerging COVID-19 on the 38° north latitude.

BACKGROUND: As COVID-19 has become a pandemic emerging infectious disease it is important to examine whether there was a spatiotemporal clustering phenomenon in the globe during the rapid spread after the first outbreak reported from southern China. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The open data on the number of COVID-19 cases reported at daily basis form the globe were used to assess the evolution of outbreaks with international air link on the same latitude and also including Taiwan. The dynamic Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model was used to evaluate continental transmission from December 2019 to March 2020 before the declaration of COVID-19 pandemic with basic reproductive number and effective reproductive number before and after containment measurements. RESULTS: For the initial COVID-19 outbreak in China, the estimated reproductive number was reduced from 2.84 during the overwhelming outbreaks in early January to 0.43 after the strict lockdown policy. It is very surprising to find there were three countries (including South Korea, Iran, and Italy) and the Washington state of the USA on the 38° North Latitude involved with large-scale community-acquired outbreaks since the first imported COVID-19 cases from China. The propagation of continental transmission was augmented from hotspot to hotspot with higher reproductive number immediately before the declaration of pandemic. By contrast, there was not any large community-acquired outbreak in Taiwan. CONCLUSION: The propagated spatiotemporal transmission from China to other hotspots may explain the emerging pandemic that can only be exempted by timely border control and preparedness of containment measurements according to Taiwan experience.

The risk of cardiac mortality in patients with status epilepticus: A 10-year study using data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

OBJECTIVE: To explore whether status epilepticus affected cardiac mortality. METHODS: We used the 2008-2017 multicause mortality data of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Wide-ranging Online Data for Epidemiological Research. The status epilepticus group included patients whose death certificates mentioned status epilepticus as contributing to death. The non-status epilepticus group included patients whose death certificates mentioned epilepsy, other and unspecified convulsions, febrile convulsions, or post-traumatic seizures, as contributing to death. The outcomes for evaluation were death certificates that indicated that myocardial infarction, arrhythmia, heart failure, or cardiac arrest (CA) was the immediate cause of death. The numbers of deaths and population sizes by categorical demographics were recorded and subjected to multiple logistic regression analysis. RESULTS: Among the 14,487 death certificates in status epilepticus group; 3080 patients (21.3%) died of CA. When clinical records were compared to autopsy data, females were at a lower risk of myocardial infarction (odds ratio [OR]: 0.55, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.51-0.61). Patients aged 45-65 years and older than 65 years were at a higher risk of developing all four cardiac complications. Status epilepticus was associated with higher risks of arrhythmia (OR: 1.55, 95% CI: 1.11-2.15) and CA (OR: 4.34, 95% CI: 3.49-5.39) but a reduced risk of myocardial infarction (OR: 0.42, 95% CI: 0.30-0.57) as the cause of immediate death. CONCLUSION: The frequency of CA in patients with status epilepticus increased between 2008 and 2017. Male and elderly patients were at a higher risk of cardiogenic mortality.

Long-term effectiveness of faecal immunochemical test screening for proximal and distal colorectal cancers.

OBJECTIVE: To measure the effects of faecal immunochemical test (FIT) for colorectal cancer (CRC) screening on overall and site-specific long-term effectiveness of population-based organised service screening. DESIGN: A prospective cohort study of Taiwanese nationwide biennial FIT screening was performed. A total of 5 417 699 eligible subjects were invited to attend screening from 2004 through 2009 and were followed up until 2014. We estimated the adjusted relative rates (aRRs) on the effectiveness of reducing advanced-stage CRC (stage II+) and CRC death by Bayesian Poisson regression models with the full adjustment for a cascade of self-selection factors (including the screening rate and the colonoscopy rate) and the completeness of colonoscopy together with demographic features. RESULTS: FIT screening (exposed vs unexposed) reduced the incidence of advanced-stage CRC (48.4 vs 75.7 per 100 000) and mortality (20.3 vs 41.3 per 100 000). Statistically significant reductions of both incidence of advanced-stage CRCs (aRR=0.66, 95% CI 0.63 to 0.70) and deaths from CRC (aRR=0.60, 95% CI 0.57 to 0.64) were noted. FIT screening was more effective in reducing distal advanced-stage CRCs (aRR=0.61, 95% CI 0.58 to 0.64) and CRC mortality (aRR=0.56, 95% CI 0.53 to 0.69) than proximal advanced CRCs (aRR=0.84, 95% CI 0.77 to 0.92) and CRC mortality (aRR=0.72, 95% CI 0.66 to 0.80). CONCLUSION: A large-scale population-based biennial FIT screening demonstrates 34% significant reduction of advanced-stage CRCs and 40% reduction of death from CRC with larger long-term effectiveness in the distal colon than the proximal colon. Our findings provide a strong and consistent evidence-based policy for supporting a sustainable population-based FIT organised service screening worldwide. The disparity of site-specific long-term effectiveness also provides an insight into the remedy for lower effectiveness of FIT screening in the proximal colon.

Impact of varying anatomic sites on advanced stage and survival of oral cancer: 9-year prospective cohort of 27 717 cases.

BACKGROUND: To elucidate the impact of varying anatomic sites on advanced stage of and death from oral cancer. METHODS: A total of 27 717 oral cancers mainly from a population-based visual inspection program in Taiwan from 2004 to 2009 was followed until the end of 2012. RESULTS: Using lip cancer as reference, the odds ratios (95% confidence interval [CI]) of advanced stage of cancer were 2.20 (1.92-2.51) for tongue, 2.60 (2.28-2.97) for buccal, 2.68 (2.20-3.28) for floor of mouth, 2.96 (2.52-3.47) for hard palate, 6.04 (5.17-7.05) for gingiva, and 10.83 (9.20-12.74) for oropharynx. The estimated hazard ratios (95% CI) for oral cancer death increased from 1.48 (1.31-1.67) in buccal, 1.61 (1.43-1.82) in tongue, 1.68 (1.41-1.99) in floor of mouth, 1.79 (1.57-2.05) in gingiva, 1.97 (1.71-2.26) in hard palate, and 2.15 (1.89-2.45) in oropharynx. CONCLUSION: Different anatomic sites had variations in advanced stage of and death from oral cancer and need vigilant surveillance.

Evaluation of Cardiac Complications Following Hemorrhagic Stroke Using 5-Year Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Database.

Literature regarding cardiac deaths in hemorrhagic stroke patients is few. The aim of this study was to investigate the incidence and risk factors of cardiac death in hemorrhagic stroke patients. We used the multiple causes of death database from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Wide-ranging Online Data of the United States. We identified death certificates from 2006 to 2010 with hemorrhagic stroke (International Classification of Disease, Tenth Revision (ICD-10) code I60-62), or ischemic stroke (ICD-10 code I63), and evaluated the frequency and risk factors of reporting MI (ICD-10 code I20-25) or arrhythmias (ICD-10 code I44-45, I47-49) as the main cause of death in these populations. Over the five-year period, 224,359 death certificates that mentioned hemorrhagic stroke were identified, and the cause of death was MI in 8.95% and arrhythmia in 7.28% patients. With autopsy confirmation, the incidences of MI and arrhythmias in the hemorrhagic stroke group were still lower than the ischemic group. The odds ratio of reporting arrhythmias as a cause of death in hospitalized population was higher. A substantial percentage of hemorrhagic stroke patients had cardiac death. Greater efforts are needed to closely monitor high-risk groups such as females and the elderly.

Diabetes mellitus is associated with acquisition and increased mortality in HIV-uninfected patients with cryptococcosis: A population-based study.

OBJECTIVES: To disclose the association between diabetes mellitus (DM) and cryptococcosis in HIV-uninfected patients. METHODS: Case patients' diagnoses with cryptococcosis and cryptococcal meningitis were based on data from the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database from 2000 to 2010, and diagnoses were defined using the International Classification of Disease, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification. A case-control study comprising inpatient and outpatient populations was conducted using 4 controls for each patient (4587 case patients and 18,348 controls) matched for age, sex, monthly income, and urbanization level. RESULTS: Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-uninfected patients with cryptococcosis were more likely to have diabetes than matched control patients (adjusted odds ratio [OR], 1.45; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 1.36-1.64; p < 0.001). A diagnosis of DM was also associated with 1-year and overall mortality from cryptococcosis (hazard ratio [HR], 1.39; 95% CI, 1.17-1.65; p < 0.001, HR, 1.47; 95% CI, 1.29-1.67; p < 0.001; respectively) and cryptococcal meningitis (p = 0.018). CONCLUSIONS: Diabetes was associated with the occurrence of cryptococcosis and cryptococcal meningitis in HIV-uninfected patients. DM was also associated with 1-year and overall mortality for these patients.

Mitochondrial DNA copy number is associated with diagnosis and prognosis of head and neck cancer.

CONTEXT: Mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) copy number correlates with tumor pathology in some cancers. OBJECTIVE: To investigate mtDNA copy number in head and neck cancer (HNC). MATERIALS AND METHODS: mtDNA copy number was determined and compared between HNC patients and malignancy-free controls. RESULTS: The mtDNA copy number was significantly higher in HNC patients, increased with cancer progression and correlated negatively with patient survival. DISCUSSION: mtDNA copy number appears to be associated with HNC stage and survival, but confirmation requires similar studies in larger cohorts. CONCLUSION: Studies to establish the nature of the relationship between mtDNA copy number and HNC are warranted.

Two-stage community-based screening model for estimating prevalence of diabetic polyneuropathy (KCIS no. 6).

The aim of this study was to apply a calibrated two-stage community-based design to estimate the prevalence of diabetic distal sensorimotor polyneuropathy (DPN) in Taiwan. Type 2 diabetics were identified from a population-based screening program in Keelung, Taiwan. Administration of the Neurological Symptom Score (NSS) questionnaire identified 210 DPN-positive cases of the 587 diabetic subjects tested. The accuracy of this NSS screening was tested with sensitive electrophysiological DPN diagnosis. A smaller validation study was also conducted to estimate the sensitivity and specificity of the NSS questionnaire. In the validation study, the overall prevalence rate for DPN among type 2 diabetics was 26.79%. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive values were 73.33, 30.49, 24.72 and 75.76%, respectively. The estimates of sensitivity, specificity and positive predictive values were 75.00, 33.33 and 42.86% for old cases of diabetes, and 72.22, 29.69 and 22.41% for newly diagnosed cases. The range of prevalence rate in the main study was adjusted to 28.46-36.30% after calibration for sensitivity and specificity with the validation study data. A two-stage community-based screening model with calibration of prevalence rate was developed and enabled a cost-effective DPN prevalence rate estimate in a study with a large number of subjects.