Arctic terrestrial biodiversity status and trends: A synopsis of science supporting the CBMP State of Arctic Terrestrial Biodiversity Report.

This review provides a synopsis of the main findings of individual papers in the special issue Terrestrial Biodiversity in a Rapidly Changing Arctic. The special issue was developed to inform the State of the Arctic Terrestrial Biodiversity Report developed by the Circumpolar Biodiversity Monitoring Program (CBMP) of the Conservation of Arctic Flora and Fauna (CAFF), Arctic Council working group. Salient points about the status and trends of Arctic biodiversity and biodiversity monitoring are organized by taxonomic groups: (1) vegetation, (2) invertebrates, (3) mammals, and (4) birds. This is followed by a discussion about commonalities across the collection of papers, for example, that heterogeneity was a predominant pattern of change particularly when assessing global trends for Arctic terrestrial biodiversity. Finally, the need for a comprehensive, integrated, ecosystem-based monitoring program, coupled with targeted research projects deciphering causal patterns, is discussed.

Satellite-based decadal change assessments of pan-Arctic environments.

Remote sensing can advance the work of the Circumpolar Biodiversity Monitoring Program through monitoring of satellite-derived terrestrial and marine physical and ecological variables. Standardized data facilitate an unbiased comparison across variables and environments. Using MODIS standard products of land surface temperature, percent snow covered area, NDVI, EVI, phenology, burned area, marine chlorophyll, CDOM, sea surface temperature, and marine primary productivity, significant trends were observed in almost all variables between 2000 and 2017. Analysis of seasonal data revealed significant breakpoints in temporal trends. Within the terrestrial environment, data showed significant increasing trends in land surface temperature and NDVI. In the marine environment, significant increasing trends were detected in primary productivity. Significantly earlier onset of green up date was observed in bioclimate subzones C&E and longer end of growing season in B&E. Terrestrial and marine parameters showed similar rates of change with unidirectional change in terrestrial and significant directional and magnitude shifts in marine.

Record-setting algal bloom in Lake Erie caused by agricultural and meteorological trends consistent with expected future conditions.

In 2011, Lake Erie experienced the largest harmful algal bloom in its recorded history, with a peak intensity over three times greater than any previously observed bloom. Here we show that long-term trends in agricultural practices are consistent with increasing phosphorus loading to the western basin of the lake, and that these trends, coupled with meteorological conditions in spring 2011, produced record-breaking nutrient loads. An extended period of weak lake circulation then led to abnormally long residence times that incubated the bloom, and warm and quiescent conditions after bloom onset allowed algae to remain near the top of the water column and prevented flushing of nutrients from the system. We further find that all of these factors are consistent with expected future conditions. If a scientifically guided management plan to mitigate these impacts is not implemented, we can therefore expect this bloom to be a harbinger of future blooms in Lake Erie.