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BACKGROUND: Lymph node metastasis is significantly associated with a worse prognosis in patients with localized early-stage esophageal squamous cell carcinoma. This study aimed to explore the prognostic factors and develop a nomogram for predicting survival in patients with pathologic T1-2N+ esophageal squamous cell carcinoma. METHODS: Between 2014 and 2022, patients with pT1-2N+ esophageal squamous cell carcinoma who underwent esophagectomy with lymphadenectomy at 2 institutes were reviewed and assigned to training and external validation cohorts. Independent prognostic factors were identified via univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses. The nomogram model was developed and evaluated by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and calibration curve. RESULTS: In total, 268 patients with a median age of 65 years (range, 40-82) were included and assigned to training (n = 190) and external validation (n = 78) cohorts. The Cox proportional hazards model demonstrated that body mass index (P = .031), surgical approach (P < .001), T stage (P = .015), and Clavien-Dindo classification (P < .001) were independent prognostic factors in the training cohort. The nomogram showed good discrimination, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year of 0.810, 0.789, and 0.809 in the training cohort and 0.782, 0.679, and 0.698 in the validation cohort. The calibration curve showed that the predicted survival probability was in good agreement with the actual survival probability. CONCLUSION: Lower body mass index, left surgical approach, T2 stage, and Clavien-Dindo classification grade III to V were related to worse prognosis in patients with pT1-T2N+ esophageal squamous cell carcinoma. The developed nomogram may predict individual survival accurately.
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Neoplasias Esofágicas , Carcinoma de Células Escamosas de Esófago , Esofagectomía , Estadificación de Neoplasias , Nomogramas , Humanos , Persona de Mediana Edad , Masculino , Femenino , Estudios Retrospectivos , Anciano , Carcinoma de Células Escamosas de Esófago/cirugía , Carcinoma de Células Escamosas de Esófago/mortalidad , Carcinoma de Células Escamosas de Esófago/patología , Neoplasias Esofágicas/mortalidad , Neoplasias Esofágicas/patología , Neoplasias Esofágicas/cirugía , Pronóstico , Adulto , Anciano de 80 o más Años , Metástasis Linfática , Escisión del Ganglio Linfático , Curva ROC , Modelos de Riesgos ProporcionalesRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: The site of lymph node metastasis (LNM) may affect the prognosis of patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC). To investigate the prognoses of pararespiratory and paradigestive LNM and to propose a novel N (nN) staging system that integrates both the LNM site and count. METHODS: This study was a multicenter, large-sample, retrospective cohort study that included ESCC patients with LNM between January 2014 and December 2019 from three Chinese institutes. Patients were set into training (two institutes) and external validation (one institute) cohorts. The primary outcomes were survival differences in LNM site and the development of novel nodal staging system. The overall survival (OS) of patients with pararespiratory LNM only (Group A), paradigestive LNM only (Group B), and both sites (Group C) was evaluated by Kaplan-Meier. Cox proportional hazards models were used to identify the independent prognostic factors. An nN staging system considering both the LNM site and count was developed and evaluated by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). RESULTS: In total, 1313 patients were included and split into training (n = 1033) and external validation (n = 280) cohorts. There were 342 (26.0%), 568 (43.3%) and 403 (30.7%) patients in groups A, B and C, respectively. The OS of patients with pararespiratory and patients with paradigestive LNM presented significant differences in the training and validation cohorts (P < 0.050). In the training cohort, LNM site was an independent prognostic factor (hazard ratio: 1.58, 95% confidence intervals: 1.41-1.77, P < 0.001). The nN staging definition: nN1 (1-2 positive pararespiratory/paradigestive LNs), nN2 (3-6 pararespiratory LNs or 1 pararespiratory with 1paradigestive LN), nN3 (3-6 LNs with ≥ 1 paradigestive LN), nN4 (≥ 7 LNs). Subsets of patients with different nN stages showed significant differences in OS (P < 0.050). The prognostic model of the nN staging system presented higher performance in the training and validation cohorts at 3-year OS (AUC, 0.725 and 0.751, respectively) and 5-year OS (AUC, 0.740 and 0.793, respectively) than the current N staging systems. CONCLUSIONS: Compared to pararespiratory LNM, the presence of paradigestive LNM is associated with worse OS. The nN staging system revealed superior prognostic ability than current N staging systems.
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Neoplasias Esofágicas , Carcinoma de Células Escamosas de Esófago , Humanos , Pueblo Asiatico , Metástasis Linfática , Estudios Retrospectivos , China , Estadificación de Neoplasias , PronósticoRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Endoscopic resection is increasingly used to treat pathological T1 (pT1) esophageal cancer (EC) patients. However, the procedures are limited by lymph node metastasis (LNM) and remain controversial. We aimed to construct a nomogram to predict the risk of LNM in patients with pT1 esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC). METHODS: A total of 243 patients with pT1 ESCC who underwent esophagectomy and lymph node dissection at two different institutes between February 2013 and June 2019 were analyzed retrospectively. Patients were categorized into the negative group and the positive group according to whether there was LNM. Risk factors for LNM were evaluated by univariate and multivariate analyses. The nomogram was used to estimate the individual risk of LNM. RESULTS: Forty-six (18.9%) of the 243 patients with pT1 ESCC exhibited LNM. The LNM rate in patients with stage T1a disease was 5.7% (5/88), and the rate in patients with stage T1b disease was 26.5% (41/155). Multivariable logistic regression analysis showed that tumor differentiation [odds ratio (OR) =1.942, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.067-3.536, P=0.030], the T1 sub-stage (OR =4.750, 95% CI: 1.658-13.611, P=0.004), the preoperative alanine aminotransferase/aspartate aminotransferase ratio (LSR) (OR =5.371, 95% CI: 1.676-17.210, P=0.005), and the high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) level (OR =5.894, 95% CI: 1.917-18.124, P=0.002) were independent risk factors for LNM. The nomogram had relatively high accuracy, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.803 (95% CI: 0.732-0.873). The calibration curve showed that the predicted probability of LNM was in good agreement with the actual probability. CONCLUSIONS: Clinicopathological and hematological parameters of tumor differentiation, the T1 sub-stage, the preoperative LSR, and the HDL-C level may predict the risk of LNM in T1 ESCC. The risk of LNM can be predicted by the nomogram.
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PURPOSE: To study the risk grade of gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GISTs) with conventional MR imaging and diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI). MATERIALS AND METHODS: The abdominal MR images with DWI of 23 patients with pathologically proven GISTs during January 2010 to May 2011 were retrospectively reviewed. The conventional MR imaging findings and apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) values of the tumors related to the risk grade were analyzed. RESULTS: In the 23 patients, there were 13 patients with high-risk, 5 with medium-risk, 5 with low-risk, and 0 with very low-risk GISTs. Most of the conventional MR findings of the tumors did not correlate with the risk grade. The only exception to this was the correlation between risk grade and the enhancement degree of the tumor after Gd-DTPA. The ADC values were, respectively, (1.04 ± 0.13) × 10(-3) mm(2) ·s(-1) , (1.59 ± 0.06) × 10(-3) mm(2) ·s(-1) and (1.94 ± 0.08) × 10(-3) mm(2) ·s(-1) (P < 0.05) in the high-, medium-, and low-risk grade groups. The ADC values of GISTs decreased with the increase of the risk grade of the tumors (r = -0.957; P < 0.05). CONCLUSION: DWI can be used to assess the risk grade of GISTs, but conventional MR imaging is of limited use.