Bayesian estimation in NONMEM.

Bayesian estimation is a powerful but underutilized tool for answering drug development questions. In this tutorial, the principles of Bayesian model development, assessment, and prior selection will be outlined. An example pharmacokinetic (PK) model will be used to demonstrate the implementation of Bayesian modeling using the nonlinear mixed-effects modeling software NONMEM.

A Model-Informed Drug Development (MIDD) Approach for a Low Dose of Empagliflozin in Patients with Type 1 Diabetes.

In clinical trials, sodium-glucose co-transporter (SGLT) inhibitor use as adjunct to insulin therapy in type 1 diabetes (T1D) provides glucometabolic benefits while diabetic ketoacidosis risk is increased. The SGLT2 inhibitor empagliflozin was evaluated in two phase III trials: EASE-2 and EASE-3. A low, 2.5-mg dose was included in EASE-3 only. As the efficacy of higher empagliflozin doses (i.e., 10 and 25 mg) in T1D has been established in EASE-2 and EASE-3, a modeling and simulation approach was used to generate additional supportive evidence on efficacy for the 2.5-mg dose. We present the methodology behind the development and validation of two modeling and simulation frameworks: M-EASE-1, a semi-mechanistic model integrating information on insulin, glucose, and glycated hemoglobin; and M-EASE-2, a descriptive model informed by prior information. Both models were developed independently of data from EASE-3. Simulations based on these models assessed efficacy in untested clinical trial scenarios. In this manner, the models provide supportive evidence for efficacy of low-dose empagliflozin 2.5 mg in patients with T1D, illustrating how pharmacometric analyses can support efficacy assessments in the context of limited data.

Low-dose empagliflozin as adjunct-to-insulin therapy in type 1 diabetes: A valid modelling and simulation analysis to confirm efficacy.

AIM: To confirm the observed reduction in HbA1c for the 2.5 mg dose in EASE-3 by modelling and simulation analyses. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Independent of data from EASE-3 that tested 2.5 mg, we simulated the effect of a 2.5 mg dose through patient-level, exposure-response modelling in the EASE-2 clinical study. A primary semi-mechanistic model evaluated efficacy considering clinical insulin dose adjustments made after treatment initiation that potentially limited HbA1c reductions. The model was informed by pharmacokinetic, insulin dose, mean daily glucose and HbA1c data, and was verified by comparing the simulations with the observed HbA1c change in EASE-3. One of two empagliflozin phase 3 trials in type 1 diabetes (EASE-3 but not EASE-2) included a lower 2.5 mg dose. A placebo-corrected HbA1c reduction of 0.28% was demonstrated without the increased risk of diabetic ketoacidosis observed at higher doses (10 mg and 25 mg). Since only one trial included the lower dose, we aimed to confirm the observed reduction in HbA1c for the 2.5 mg dose by modelling and simulation analyses. RESULTS: The simulated 26-week mean HbA1c change was -0.41% without insulin dose adjustment and -0.29% at 26 weeks with insulin dose adjustment. A simplified (descriptive) model excluding insulin dose and mean daily glucose confirmed the -0.29% HbA1c change that would have been observed had the EASE-2 population received a 2.5 mg dose for 26/52 weeks. CONCLUSIONS: The HbA1c benefit of low-dose empagliflozin directly observed in the EASE-3 trial was confirmed by two modelling and simulation approaches.

Altered Bile Acid Metabolome in Patients with Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The prevalence of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and steatohepatitis (NASH) is increasing at an alarming rate. The role of bile acids in the development and progression of NAFLD to NASH and cirrhosis is poorly understood. This study aimed to quantify the bile acid metabolome in healthy subjects and patients with non-cirrhotic NASH under fasting conditions and after a standardized meal. METHODS: Liquid chromatography tandem mass spectroscopy was used to quantify 30 serum and 16 urinary bile acids from 15 healthy volunteers and 7 patients with biopsy-confirmed NASH. Bile acid concentrations were measured at two fasting and four post-prandial time points following a high-fat meal to induce gallbladder contraction and bile acid reabsorption from the intestine. RESULTS: Patients with NASH had significantly higher total serum bile acid concentrations than healthy subjects under fasting conditions (2.2- to 2.4-fold increase in NASH; NASH 2595-3549 µM and healthy 1171-1458 µM) and at all post-prandial time points (1.7- to 2.2-fold increase in NASH; NASH 4444-5898 µM and healthy 2634-2829 µM). These changes were driven by increased taurine- and glycine-conjugated primary and secondary bile acids. Patients with NASH exhibited greater variability in their fasting and post-prandial bile acid profile. CONCLUSIONS: Results indicate that patients with NASH have higher fasting and post-prandial exposure to bile acids, including the more hydrophobic and cytotoxic secondary species. Increased bile acid exposure may be involved in liver injury and the pathogenesis of NAFLD and NASH.