Future changes in fire weather, spring droughts, and false springs across U.S. National Forests and Grasslands.

Public lands provide many ecosystem services and support diverse plant and animal communities. In order to provide these benefits in the future, land managers and policy makers need information about future climate change and its potential effects. In particular, weather extremes are key drivers of wildfires, droughts, and false springs, which in turn can have large impacts on ecosystems. However, information on future changes in weather extremes on public lands is lacking. Our goal was to compare historical (1950-2005) and projected mid-century (2041-2070) changes in weather extremes (fire weather, spring droughts, and false springs) on public lands. This case study looked at the lands managed by the U.S. Forest Service across the conterminous United States including 501 ranger district units. We analyzed downscaled projections of daily records from 19 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 General Circulation Models for two climate scenarios, with either medium-low or high CO2 - equivalent concentration (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5). For each ranger district, we estimated: (1) fire potential, using the Keetch-Byram Drought Index; (2) frequency of spring droughts, using the Standardized Precipitation Index; and (3) frequency of false springs, using the extended Spring Indices. We found that future climates could substantially alter weather conditions across Forest Service lands. Under the two climate scenarios, increases in wildfire potential, spring droughts, and false springs were projected in 32-72%, 28-29%, and 13-16% of all ranger districts, respectively. Moreover, a substantial number of ranger districts (17-30%), especially in the Southwestern, Pacific Southwest, and Rocky Mountain regions, were projected to see increases in more than one type of weather extreme, which may require special management attention. We suggest that future changes in weather extremes could threaten the ability of public lands to provide ecosystem services and ecological benefits to society. Overall, our results highlight the value of spatially-explicit weather projections to assess future changes in key weather extremes for land managers and policy makers.

Enhancement of understory productivity by asynchronous phenology with overstory competitors in a temperate deciduous forest.

Some saplings and shrubs growing in the understory of temperate deciduous forests extend their periods of leaf display beyond that of the overstory, resulting in periods when understory radiation, and hence productivity, are not limited by the overstory canopy. To assess the importance of the duration of leaf display on the productivity of understory and overstory trees of deciduous forests in the north eastern United States, we applied the simulation model, BIOME-BGC with climate data for Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest, New Hampshire, USA and mean ecophysiological data for species of deciduous, temperate forests. Extension of the overstory leaf display period increased overstory leaf area index (LAI) by only 3 to 4% and productivity by only 2 to 4%. In contrast, extending the growing season of the understory relative to the overstory by one week in both spring and fall, increased understory LAI by 35% and productivity by 32%. A 2-week extension of the growing period in both spring and fall increased understory LAI by 53% and productivity by 55%.

Climate-driven increases in global terrestrial net primary production from 1982 to 1999.

Recent climatic changes have enhanced plant growth in northern mid-latitudes and high latitudes. However, a comprehensive analysis of the impact of global climatic changes on vegetation productivity has not before been expressed in the context of variable limiting factors to plant growth. We present a global investigation of vegetation responses to climatic changes by analyzing 18 years (1982 to 1999) of both climatic data and satellite observations of vegetation activity. Our results indicate that global changes in climate have eased several critical climatic constraints to plant growth, such that net primary production increased 6% (3.4 petagrams of carbon over 18 years) globally. The largest increase was in tropical ecosystems. Amazon rain forests accounted for 42% of the global increase in net primary production, owing mainly to decreased cloud cover and the resulting increase in solar radiation.