Identifying predictors of translocation success in rare plant species.

The fundamental goal of a rare plant translocation is to create self-sustaining populations with the evolutionary resilience to persist in the long term. Yet, most plant translocation syntheses focus on a few factors influencing short-term benchmarks of success (e.g., survival and reproduction). Short-term benchmarks can be misleading when trying to infer future growth and viability because the factors that promote establishment may differ from those required for long-term persistence. We assembled a large (n = 275) and broadly representative data set of well-documented and monitored (7.9 years on average) at-risk plant translocations to identify the most important site attributes, management techniques, and species' traits for six life-cycle benchmarks and population metrics of translocation success. We used the random forest algorithm to quantify the relative importance of 29 predictor variables for each metric of success. Drivers of translocation outcomes varied across time frames and success metrics. Management techniques had the greatest relative influence on the attainment of life-cycle benchmarks and short-term population trends, whereas site attributes and species' traits were more important for population persistence and long-term trends. Specifically, large founder sizes increased the potential for reproduction and recruitment into the next generation, whereas declining habitat quality and the outplanting of species with low seed production led to increased extinction risks and a reduction in potential reproductive output in the long-term, respectively. We also detected novel interactions between some of the most important drivers, such as an increased probability of next-generation recruitment in species with greater seed production rates, but only when coupled with large founder sizes. Because most significant barriers to plant translocation success can be overcome by improving techniques or resolving site-level issues through early intervention and management, we suggest that by combining long-term monitoring with adaptive management, translocation programs can enhance the prospects of achieving long-term success.

Identificación de pronosticadores del éxito de reubicación en especies raras de plantas Resumen El objetivo fundamental de la reubicación de plantas raras es la creación de poblaciones autosuficientes con resiliencia evolutiva que persistan a la larga. De todas maneras, la mayoría de las síntesis de estas reubicaciones se enfocan en unos cuantos factores que influyen sobre los parámetros a corto plazo del éxito (supervivencia y reproducción). Los parámetros a corto plazo pueden ser engañosos si se intenta inferir el crecimiento y la viabilidad en el futuro ya que los factores que promueven el establecimiento pueden diferir de aquellos requeridos para la persistencia a largo plazo. Ensamblamos un conjunto grande de datos representativos en general (n = 275) de las reubicaciones de plantas en riesgo bien documentadas y monitoreadas (7.9 años en promedio) para identificar los atributos de sitio más importantes, las técnicas de manejo y los rasgos de las especies para seis parámetros de ciclos de vida y medidas poblacionales del éxito de reubicación. Usamos el algoritmo de bosque aleatorio para cuantificar la importancia relativa de las 29 variables de pronosticadores para cada medida del éxito. Los factores en los resultados de las reubicaciones variaron con los marcos temporales y las medidas de éxito. Las técnicas de manejo tuvieron la mayor influencia relativa sobre la obtención de parámetros de ciclos de vida y tendencias poblacionales a corto plazo, mientras que los atributos de sitio y los rasgos de la especie fueron más importantes para la persistencia poblacional y las tendencias a largo plazo. En específico, las grandes cantidades de fundadores incrementaron el potencial de reproducción y reclutamiento de la siguiente generación, mientras que la declinación de la calidad del hábitat incrementó el riesgo de extinción y el trasplante de especies con baja producción de semillas redujo el rendimiento del potencial reproductivo a la larga. También detectamos interacciones novedosas entre algunos de los factores más importantes, como el aumento en la probabilidad del reclutamiento en la siguiente generación en especies con tasas mayores de producción de semillas, pero sólo cuando se emparejó con grandes cantidades de fundadores. Ya que las barreras más significativas para el éxito de la reubicación de plantas pueden superarse al mejorar las técnicas o resolver los temas a nivel de sitio por medio de un manejo y una intervención temprana, sugerimos que con la combinación del monitoreo a largo plazo con el manejo adaptativo los programas de reubicación pueden aumentar el prospecto de lograr el éxito a largo plazo.

Impacts of weather on long-term patterns of plant richness and diversity vary with location and management.

Better understanding the influence of precipitation and temperature on plant assemblages is needed to predict the effects of climate change. Many studies have examined the relationship between plant productivity and weather (primarily precipitation), but few have directly assessed the relationship between plant richness or diversity and weather despite their increased use as metrics of ecosystem condition. We focus on the grasslands of central North America, which are characterized by high temporal climatic variability. Over the next 100 years, these grasslands are predicted to experience further increased variability in growing season precipitation, as well as increased temperatures, due to global climate change. We assess the portion of interannual variability of richness and diversity explained by weather, how relationships between these metrics and weather vary among plant assemblages, and which aspects of weather best explain temporal variability. We used an information-theoretic approach to assess relationships between long-term plant richness and diversity patterns and a priori weather covariates using six data sets from four grasslands. Weather explained up to 49% and 63% of interannual variability in total plant species richness and diversity, respectively. However, richness and diversity responses to specific weather variables varied both among sites and among experimental treatments within sites. In general, we found many instances in which temperature was of equal or greater importance as precipitation, as well as evidence of the importance of lagged effects and precipitation or temperature variability. Although precipitation has been shown to be a key driver of productivity in grasslands, our results indicate that increasing temperatures alone, without substantial changes in precipitation patterns, could have measurable effects on Great Plains grassland plant assemblages and biodiversity metrics. Our results also suggest that richness and diversity will respond in unique ways to changing climate and management can affect these responses; additional research and monitoring will be essential for further understanding of these complex relationships.

Does dietary P affect feeding and performance in the mixed-feeding grasshopper (Acrididae) Melanoplus bivitattus?

Although consequences of limited dietary protein and carbohydrate to performance are well studied for terrestrial insect herbivores, the importance of phosphorus (P) remains poorly understood. We examined the significance of dietary P to performance in fifth-instar nymphs of the grasshopper Melanoplus bivittatus fed artificial diets. Consumption, digestion, developmental rate, and growth in response to different levels of P nested within standard-Protein and carbohydrate diets were determined. Developmental rate was slowest on high-P diets; protein:carbohydrate concentration and P in diets affected frass production and consumption. Approximate digestibility and conversion of digested food were primarily influenced by the protein:carbohydrate quality of the diet but not P. Mass gain was marginally lower in the low-Protein:high carbohydrate diet used in this study. At the individual level, other than small effects to developmental rate at high concentrations for M. bivittatus, dietary P otherwise seems to have little effect on nymphal performance. To the degree that it is important, effects of dietary P depend on the concentrations of protein and carbohydrate in the diet.

Grasshopper (Orthoptera: Acrididae) communities respond to fire, bison grazing and weather in North American tallgrass prairie: a long-term study.

Because both intrinsic and extrinsic factors influence insect population dynamics, operating at a range of temporal and spatial scales, it is difficult to assess their contributions. Long-term studies are ideal for assessing the relative contributions of multiple factors to abundance and community dynamics. Using data spanning 25 years, we investigate the contributions of weather at annual and decadal scales, fire return interval, and grazing by bison to understand the dynamics of abundance and community composition in grasshopper assemblages from North American continental grassland. Each of these three primary drivers of grassland ecosystem dynamics affects grasshopper population and community dynamics. Negative feedbacks in abundances, as expected for regulated populations, were observed for all feeding guilds of grasshoppers. Abundance of grasshoppers did not vary in response to frequency of prescribed burns at the site. Among watersheds that varied with respect to controlled spring burns and grazing by bison, species composition of grasshopper assemblages responded significantly to both after 25 years. However, after more than 20 years of fire and grazing treatments, the number of years since the last fire was more important than the managed long-term fire frequency per se. Yearly shifts in species composition (1983-2005), examined using non-metric multidimensional scaling and fourth-corner analysis, were best explained by local weather events occurring early in grasshopper life cycles. Large-scale patterns were represented by the Palmer Drought Severity Index and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The NAO was significantly correlated with annual mean frequencies of grasshoppers, especially for forb- and mixed-feeding species. Primary grassland drivers-fire, grazing and weather-contributing both intrinsic and extrinsic influences modulate long-term fluctuations in grasshopper abundances and community taxonomic composition.