Definition and Prediction of Early Recurrence and Mortality Following Cytoreductive Surgery and Hyperthermic Intraperitoneal Chemotherapy for Colorectal Peritoneal Metastases: Towards Predicting Oncologic Futility Preoperatively.

INTRODUCTION: Early recurrence (ER) is a significant challenge for patients with colorectal peritoneal metastases (CRPM) following cytoreductive surgery with hyperthermic intraperitoneal chemotherapy (CRS HIPEC). Preoperative risk stratification for ER would improve preoperative decision making. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective study examining patients who underwent CRS HIPEC for CRPM from 2000 to 2018. Optimal definition of ER was determined via minimum p-value approach based on differentiation of post-recurrence survival. Risk factors for ER were assessed in a derivation cohort by uni- and multivariate logistic regression. A predictive score for ER was generated using preoperative variables and validated in an independent cohort. RESULTS: 384 patients were analyzed, 316 (82%) had documented recurrence. Optimal length of post-operative RFS to distinguish ER (n = 144, 46%) vs. late recurrence (LR) (n = 172, 63%) was 8 mos (p<0.01). ER patients had shorter median OS post-CRS-HIPEC (13.6 vs. 39.4 mos, p<0.01). Preoperative BMI (OR 1.88), liver lesions (OR 1.89), progression on chemotherapy (OR 2.14), positive lymph nodes (OR 2.47) and PCI score (16-20: OR 1.7; >20: OR 4.37) were significant predictors of ER (all p<0.05). Using this model, patients were assigned risk scores from 0 to 9. Intermediate (scores 4-6) and high-risk patients (score 7-9) had observed rates of ER of 56% and 79% and overall 2-year survival rates of 27% and 0% respectively. The model showed fair discrimination (AUC 0.72) and good calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow GOF p = 0.68). CONCLUSIONS: ER predicts markedly worse OS following surgery. Preoperative factors can accurately stratify risk for ER and identify patients in whom CRS-HIPEC for CPRM is futile.

Impact of Socioeconomic Status on Presentation and Outcomes in Colorectal Peritoneal Metastases Following Cytoreduction and Chemoperfusion: Persistent Inequalities in Outcomes at a High-Volume Center.

BACKGROUND: Cytoreductive surgery and hyperthermic intraperitoneal chemoperfusion (CRS HIPEC) can offer significant survival advantage for select patients with colorectal peritoneal metastases (CRPM). Low socioeconomic status (SES) is implicated in disparities in access to care. We analyze the impact of SES on postoperative outcomes and survival at a high-volume tertiary CRS HIPEC center. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study examining patients who underwent CRS HIPEC for CRPM from 2000 to 2018. Patients were grouped according to SES. Baseline characteristics, perioperative outcomes, and survival were examined between groups. RESULTS: A total of 226 patients were analyzed, 107 (47%) low-SES and 119 (53%) high-SES patients. High-SES patients were younger (52 vs. 58 years, p = 0.01) and more likely to be White (95.0% vs. 91.6%, p = 0.06) and privately insured (83% vs. 57%, p < 0.001). They traveled significantly further for treatment and had lower burden of comorbidities and frailty (p = 0.01). Low-SES patients more often presented with synchronous peritoneal metastases (48% vs. 35%, p = 0.05). Following CRS HIPEC, low-SES patients had longer length of stay and higher burden of postoperative complications, 90-day readmission, and 30-day mortality. Median overall survival following CRS HIPEC was worse for low-SES patients (17.8 vs. 32.4 months, p = 0.02). This disparity persisted on multivariate survival analysis (low SES: HR = 1.46, p = 0.03). CONCLUSIONS: Despite improving therapies for CRPM, low-SES patients remain at a significant disadvantage. Even patients who overcome barriers to care experience worse short- and long-term outcomes. Improving access and addressing these disparities is crucial to ensure equitable outcomes and improve patient care.

Predischarge Prediction of Readmission After Cytoreductive Surgery and Hyperthermic Intraperitoneal Chemotherapy: Derivation and Validation of a Risk Prediction Score.

BACKGROUND: Ninety-day hospital readmission rates following cytoreductive surgery and hyperthermic intraperitoneal chemotherapy (CRS/HIPEC) range from 20 to 40%. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to develop and validate a simple score to predict readmissions following CRS/HIPEC. STUDY DESIGN: Using a prospectively maintained database, we retrospectively reviewed clinicopathologic, perioperative, and day-of-discharge data for patients undergoing CRS/HIPEC for peritoneal surface malignancies between 2010 and 2018. In-hospital mortalities and discharges to hospice were excluded. Multivariate logistic regression was utilized to identify predictors of unplanned readmission, with three-quarters of the sample randomly selected as the derivation cohort and one-quarter as the validation cohort. Using regression coefficient-based scoring methods, we developed a weighted 7-factor, 10-point predictive score for risk of readmission. RESULTS: Overall, 1068 eligible discharges were analyzed; 379 patients were readmitted within 90 days (35.5%). Seven factors were associated with readmission: stoma creation, Peritoneal Cancer Index score ≥ 15, hyponatremia, in-hospital major complication, preoperative chemotherapy, anemia, and discharge to nursing home. In the validation cohort, 25 patients (9.2%) were categorized as high risk for readmission, with a predicted rate of readmission of 69.3% and an observed rate of 76.0%. The score had fair discrimination (area under the curve 0.70) and good calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit p-value of 0.77). CONCLUSION: Our proposed risk score, easily obtainable on day of discharge, distinguishes patients at high risk for readmission over 90 days following CRS/HIPEC. This score has the potential to target high-risk individuals for intensive follow-up and other interventions.