Development of forecast models for COVID-19 hospital admissions using anonymized and aggregated mobile network data.

Reliable forecast of COVID-19 hospital admissions in near-term horizons can help enable effective resource management which is vital in reducing pressure from healthcare services. The use of mobile network data has come to attention in response to COVID-19 pandemic leveraged on their ability in capturing people social behavior. Crucially, we show that there are latent features in irreversibly anonymized and aggregated mobile network data that carry useful information in relation to the spread of SARS-CoV-2 virus. We describe development of the forecast models using such features for prediction of COVID-19 hospital admissions in near-term horizons (21 days). In a case study, we verified the approach for two hospitals in Sweden, Sahlgrenska University Hospital and Södra Älvsborgs Hospital, working closely with the experts engaged in the hospital resource planning. Importantly, the results of the forecast models were used in year 2021 by logisticians at the hospitals as one of the main inputs for their decisions regarding resource management.

Predicting regional COVID-19 hospital admissions in Sweden using mobility data.

The transmission of COVID-19 is dependent on social mixing, the basic rate of which varies with sociodemographic, cultural, and geographic factors. Alterations in social mixing and subsequent changes in transmission dynamics eventually affect hospital admissions. We employ these observations to model and predict regional hospital admissions in Sweden during the COVID-19 pandemic. We use an SEIR-model for each region in Sweden in which the social mixing is assumed to depend on mobility data from public transport utilisation and locations for mobile phone usage. The results show that the model could capture the timing of the first and beginning of the second wave of the pandemic 3 weeks in advance without any additional assumptions about seasonality. Further, we show that for two major regions of Sweden, models with public transport data outperform models using mobile phone usage. We conclude that a model based on routinely collected mobility data makes it possible to predict future hospital admissions for COVID-19 3 weeks in advance.

Transforming growth factor beta1 genotype and change in left ventricular mass during antihypertensive treatment--results from the Swedish Irbesartan Left Ventricular Hypertrophy Investigation versus Atenolol (SILVHIA).

BACKGROUND: Angiotensin II, via the angiotensin II type 1 (AT1) receptor, may mediate myocardial fibrosis and myocyte hypertrophy seen in hypertensive left ventricular (LV) hypertrophy through production of transforming growth factor beta1 (TGF-beta1); AT1-receptor antagonists reverse these changes. The TGF-beta1 G + 915C polymorphism is associated with interindividual variation in TGF-beta1 production. No study has yet determined the impact of this polymorphism on the response to antihypertensive treatment. HYPOTHESIS: We aimed to determine whether the TGF-beta1 G + 915C polymorphism was related to change in LV mass during antihypertensive treatment with either an AT1-receptor antagonists or a beta1-adrenoceptor blocker. The polymorphism was hypothesized to have an impact mainly on the irbesartan group. METHODS: We determined the association between the TGF-beta1 genotype and regression of LV mass in 90 patients with essential hypertension and echocardiographically diagnosed LV hypertrophy, randomized in a double-blind study to receive treatment for 48 weeks with either the AT1-receptor antagonist irbesartan or the beta1-adrenoceptor blocker atenolol. RESULTS: Irbesartan-treated patients who were carriers of the C-allele, which is associated with low expression of TGF-beta1, responded with a markedly greater decrease in LV mass index (LVMI) than subjects with the G/G genotype (adjusted mean change in LVMI -44.7 g/m2 vs. -22.2 g/m2, p = 0.007), independent of blood pressure reduction. No association between genotype and change in LVMI was observed in the atenolol group. CONCLUSIONS: The TGF-beta1 G + 915C polymorphism is related to the change in LVMI in response to antihypertensive treatment with the AT1-receptor antagonist irbesartan.

Angiotensinogen gene polymorphisms: relationship to blood pressure response to antihypertensive treatment. Results from the Swedish Irbesartan Left Ventricular Hypertrophy Investigation vs Atenolol (SILVHIA) trial.

BACKGROUND: The renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system (RAAS) is important for the development of hypertension, and several antihypertensive drugs target this system. Our aim was to determine whether specific single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in RAAS genes were related to the blood pressure (BP) lowering effect of antihypertensive treatment. METHODS: Patients with mild to moderate primary hypertension and left ventricular hypertrophy were randomized in a double-blind fashion to treatment with either the angiotensin II type 1 receptor antagonist irbesartan (n = 48) or the beta(1)-adrenergic receptor blocker atenolol (n = 49) as monotherapy. A microarray-based minisequencing system was used to genotype 30 SNPs in seven genes in the RAAS. These polymorphisms were related to the antihypertensive response after 12 weeks treatment. RESULTS: The BP reductions were similar in the atenolol and the irbesartan groups. Presence of the angiotensinogen (AGT) -6A allele or the AGT 235T allele were both associated with the most pronounced systolic BP response to atenolol treatment (P =.001 when -6 AA+AG was compared with GG and P =.008 for presence of the 235T variant compared with 235 MM). CONCLUSIONS: We found that SNPs in the angiotensinogen gene were associated with the BP lowering response to atenolol. This study is limited by a relatively small sample size, and the results should therefore be viewed as preliminary. Despite this limitation, these results illustrate the potential of using SNP genotyping as a pharmacogenetic tool in antihypertensive treatment.

B2 bradykinin receptor (B2BKR) polymorphism and change in left ventricular mass in response to antihypertensive treatment: results from the Swedish Irbesartan Left Ventricular Hypertrophy Investigation versus Atenolol (SILVHIA) trial.

OBJECTIVE: Hypertension is associated with a number of adverse morphologic and functional changes in the cardiovascular system, including left ventricular (LV) hypertrophy. Studies have demonstrated that bradykinin, through the B2 bradykinin receptor (B2BKR), mediates important cardiovascular effects that may protect against LV hypertrophy. Recently, a +9/-9 exon 1 polymorphism of the B2BKR was shown to be strongly associated with LV growth response among normotensive males undergoing physical training. We aimed to clarify whether the processes found in exercise-induced LV growth in normotensive people also occur in pathological LV hypertrophy. DESIGN AND METHODS: We determined the B2BKR genotype of 90 patients with essential hypertension and echocardiographically diagnosed LV hypertrophy, included in a double-blind study to receive treatment for 48 weeks with either the angiotensin II type 1 (AT1) receptor antagonist irbesartan or the beta1-adrenoceptor antagonist atenolol. RESULTS: B2BKR +9/+9 genotypes responded poorly in LV mass regression, independent of blood pressure reduction or treatment, as compared to the other genotypes (adjusted mean change in LV mass index = -10.0 +/- 4.6 versus -21.6 +/- 2.2 g/m2, P = 0.03). CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest an impact of the B2BKR polymorphism on LV mass regression during antihypertensive treatment.

A microarray minisequencing system for pharmacogenetic profiling of antihypertensive drug response.

We aimed to develop a microarray genotyping system for multiplex analysis of a panel of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in genes encoding proteins involved in blood pressure regulation, and to apply this system in a pilot study demonstrating its feasibility in the pharmacogenetics of hypertension. A panel of 74 SNPs in 25 genes involved in blood pressure regulation was selected from the SNP databases, and genotyped in DNA samples of 97 hypertensive patients. The patients had been randomized to double-blind treatment with either the angiotensin II type 1 receptor blocker irbesartan or the beta 1-adrenergic receptor blocker atenolol. Genotyping was performed using a microarray based DNA polymerase assisted 'minisequencing' single nucleotide primer extension assay with fluorescence detection. The observed genotypes were related to the blood pressure reduction using stepwise multiple regression analysis. The allele frequencies of the selected SNPs were determined in the Swedish population. The established microarray-based genotyping system was validated and allowed unequivocal multiplex genotyping of the panel of 74 SNPs in every patient. Almost 7200 SNP genotypes were generated in the study. Profiles of four or five SNP-genotypes that may be useful as predictors of blood pressure reduction after antihypertensive treatment were identified. Our results highlight the potential of microarray-based technology for SNP genotyping in pharmacogenetics.

The CYP2C9 genotype predicts the blood pressure response to irbesartan: results from the Swedish Irbesartan Left Ventricular Hypertrophy Investigation vs Atenolol (SILVHIA) trial.

BACKGROUND: The cytochrome P450 CYP2C9 enzyme (CYP2C9) metabolizes many clinically important drugs, for example, phenytoin, warfarin and the angiotensin II type 1 (AT(1)) receptor antagonists, losartan and irbesartan. Single nucleotide polymorphisms in the CYP2C9 gene result in the expression of three important variants, CYP2C9*1(wild-type), CYP2C9*2 and CYP2C9*3, the last two exhibiting reduced catalytic activity compared with the wild-type. The CYP2C9 genotype is known to determine sensitivity to and dose requirements for both warfarin and phenytoin, and also the rate of metabolism of losartan. However, its influence on clinical response to treatment with the AT(1) receptor antagonist, irbesartan, has not been investigated. OBJECTIVE: To determine whether the CYP2C9genotype influences the blood pressure-decreasing response to antihypertensive treatment with irbesartan. DESIGN AND METHODS: One hundred and two patients with essential hypertension and left ventricular hypertrophy were allocated randomly to groups to receive double-blind treatment with either irbesartan (n = 49) or the beta(1)-adrenergic receptor blocker, atenolol ( n= 53). Blood pressure was measured before and after 12 weeks of treatment. genotyping was performed using solid-phase minisequencing. RESULTS: The diastolic blood pressure (DBP) response differed in relation to the CYP2C9 genotype in patients given irbesartan: the reduction in patients with genotype CYP2C9*1/CYP2C9*1 (n = 33) was 7.5% and that with CYP2C9*1/CYP2C9*2 (n = 12) was 14.4% ( P= 0.036). A similar trend was seen for systolic blood pressure. In contrast, no relation was seen between the CYP2C9 genotype and blood pressure response to atenolol, a drug not metabolized via CYP2C9. CONCLUSIONS: The CYP2C9 genotype seems to predict the DBP response to irbesartan, but not to atenolol, in patients with essential hypertension.

Aldosterone synthase (CYP11B2) -344 C/T polymorphism is related to antihypertensive response: result from the Swedish Irbesartan Left Ventricular Hypertrophy Investigation versus Atenolol (SILVHIA) trial.

BACKGROUND: Our aim was to determine whether the aldosterone synthase (CYP11B2) -344 C/T polymorphism was associated with the blood pressure (BP)-lowering response to antihypertensive treatment. METHODS: Patients with mild-to-moderate primary hypertension and left ventricular hypertrophy were randomized in a double-blind study to receive treatment with either the angiotensin II type 1 (AT1) receptor antagonist irbesartan (n = 43), or the beta1-adrenergic receptor blocker atenolol (n = 43). The aldosterone synthase (CYP11B2) -344 C/T polymorphism was analyzed using solid-phase minisequencing and related to BP reduction after 3 months treatment. Serum aldosterone levels were measured. RESULTS: After 3 months treatment the mean reductions in BP were similar for both treatment groups. When assessing the systolic BP reduction in the irbesartan group, patients with the TT variant had a more pronounced reduction (-21 +/- 19 SD mm Hg, n = 17) than both the TC (-14 +/- 18 mm Hg, n= 18) and CC (0 +/- 17 mm Hg, n = 8) genotypes (P = .04). There was no association between this polymorphism and the diastolic BP response. The -344 C/T polymorphism was not associated with the BP response to atenolol. Nor was it related to the baseline serum aldosterone level. CONCLUSIONS: The aldosterone synthase -344 C/T polymorphism was related to the BP-lowering response in hypertensive patients treated with the AT1-receptor antagonist irbesartan.

Polymorphisms in the angiotensinogen and angiotensin II type 1 receptor gene are related to change in left ventricular mass during antihypertensive treatment: results from the Swedish Irbesartan Left Ventricular Hypertrophy Investigation versus Atenolol (SILVHIA) trial.

BACKGROUND: Our aim was to determine if gene polymorphisms in the renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system (RAAS) were related to the degree of change in left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) during antihypertensive treatment. METHODS AND RESULTS: Patients with essential hypertension and echocardiographically diagnosed LVH were included in a double-blind study to receive treatment with either the angiotensin II type 1 receptor (AT1-receptor) antagonist irbesartan (n = 41), or the beta-1 adrenergic receptor blocker atenolol (n = 43) as monotherapy for 3 months. The angiotensinogen T174M and M235T, the angiotensin-converting enzyme I/D, the AT1-receptor A1166C and the aldosterone synthase (CYP11B2) -344 C/T polymorphisms were analysed and related to the change in left ventricular mass (LVM). Patients with the angiotensinogen 174 TM genotype treated with irbesartan responded with the greatest reduction in LVM (-23 +/- 31SD g/m2 for TM and +0.5 +/- 18 g/m2 for TT, P = 0.005), independent of blood pressure reduction. Both the angiotensinogen 235 T-allele (P = 0.02) and the AT1-receptor 1166 AC genotype responded with the greatest reduction in LVM when treated with irbesartan (-0.1 +/- 19 g/m2 for AA and -18 +/- 30 g/m2 for AC, P = 0.02), independent of blood pressure reduction. These polymorphisms were not associated with the change in LVM during treatment with atenolol. DISCUSSION: The angiotensinogen T174M and M235T and the AT1-receptor A1166C polymorphisms were related to the change in LVH during antihypertensive treatment with an AT1-receptor antagonist; of these angiotensinogen T174M was the most powerful. This highlights the role of the RAAS for left ventricular hypertrophy and the potential of pharmacogenetics as a tool for guidance of antihypertensive therapy.