Liver sharing and organ procurement organization performance under redistricted allocation.

Concerns have been raised that optimized redistricting of liver allocation areas might have the unintended result of shifting livers from better-performing to poorer-performing organ procurement organizations (OPOs). We used liver simulated allocation modeling to simulate a 5-year period of liver sharing within either 4 or 8 optimized districts. We investigated whether each OPO's net liver import under redistricting would be correlated with 2 OPO performance metrics (observed to expected liver yield and liver donor conversion ratio), along with 2 other potential correlates (eligible deaths and incident listings above a Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score of 15). We found no evidence that livers would flow from better-performing OPOs to poorer-performing OPOs in either redistricting scenario. Instead, under these optimized redistricting plans, our simulations suggest that livers would flow from OPOs with more-than-expected eligible deaths toward those with fewer-than-expected eligible deaths and that livers would flow from OPOs with fewer-than-expected incident listings to those with more-than-expected incident listings; the latter is a pattern that is already established in the current allocation system. Redistricting liver distribution to reduce geographic inequity is expected to align liver allocation across the country with the distribution of supply and demand rather than transferring livers from better-performing OPOs to poorer-performing OPOs.

Liver sharing and organ procurement organization performance.

Whether the liver allocation system shifts organs from better performing organ procurement organizations (OPOs) to poorer performing OPOs has been debated for many years. Models of OPO performance from the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients make it possible to study this question in a data-driven manner. We investigated whether each OPO's net liver import was correlated with 2 performance metrics [observed to expected (O:E) liver yield and liver donor conversion ratio] as well as 2 alternative explanations [eligible deaths and incident listings above a Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score of 15]. We found no evidence to support the hypothesis that the allocation system transfers livers from better performing OPOs to centers with poorer performing OPOs. Also, having fewer eligible deaths was not associated with a net import. However, having more incident listings was strongly correlated with the net import, both before and after Share 35. Most importantly, the magnitude of the variation in OPO performance was much lower than the variation in demand: although the poorest performing OPOs differed from the best ones by less than 2-fold in the O:E liver yield, incident listings above a MELD score of 15 varied nearly 14-fold. Although it is imperative that all OPOs achieve the best possible results, the flow of livers is not explained by OPO performance metrics, and instead, it appears to be strongly related to differences in demand.

Living kidney donor follow-up: state-of-the-art and future directions, conference summary and recommendations.

In light of continued uncertainty regarding postkidney donation medical, psychosocial and socioeconomic outcomes for traditional living donors and especially for donors meeting more relaxed acceptance criteria, a meeting was held in September 2010 to (1) review limitations of existing data on outcomes of living kidney donors; (2) assess and define the need for long-term follow-up of living kidney donors; (3) identify the potential system requirements, infrastructure and costs of long-term follow-up for living kidney donor outcomes in the United States and (4) explore practical options for future development and funding of United States living kidney donor data collection, metrics and endpoints. Conference participants included prior kidney donors, physicians, surgeons, medical ethicists, social scientists, donor coordinators, social workers, independent donor advocates and representatives of payer organizations and the federal government. The findings and recommendations generated at this meeting are presented.

Evidence for antibody-mediated injury as a major determinant of late kidney allograft failure.

BACKGROUND: Late graft failure (LGF) is believed to be the consequence of immunologic and nonimmunologic insults leading to progressive deterioration in kidney function. We studied recipients with new onset late kidney graft dysfunction (n=173) to determine the importance of C4d staining and circulating donor-specific antibody (DSA) in subsequent LGF. METHODS: One hundred seventy-three subjects transplanted before October 1, 2005 (mean time after transplant 7.3+/-6.0 years) had a baseline serum creatinine level of 1.4+/-0.3 mg/dL before January 1, 2006 and underwent biopsy for new onset graft dysfunction after that date (mean creatinine at biopsy 2.7+/-1.6 mg/dL). Statistical analysis was based on central DSA and blinded pathology determinations. RESULTS: Subjects were divided into four groups based on C4d and DSA: no C4d, no DSA (group A; n=74); only DSA (group B; n=31); only C4d (group C; n=28); and both C4d and DSA (group D; n=40). Among DSA+ recipients (groups B and D), group D had broader reactivity and a stronger DSA response. After 2 years, groups C and D (C4d+) were at significantly greater risk for LGF than groups A and B. Adjusting for inflammation (Banff i, t, g, and ptc scores) did not change the outcome. Local diagnosis of calcineurin inhibitor nephrotoxicity was spread across all four subgroups and did not impact risk of LGF. CONCLUSIONS: Evidence of antibody-mediated injury (DSA or C4d) is common (57%) in patients with new onset late kidney allograft dysfunction. The risk of subsequent graft failure is significantly worse in the presence of C4d+ staining.

A molecular classifier for predicting future graft loss in late kidney transplant biopsies.

Kidney transplant recipients that develop signs of renal dysfunction or proteinuria one or more years after transplantation are at considerable risk for progression to renal failure. To assess the kidney at this time, a "for-cause" biopsy is performed, but this provides little indication as to which recipients will go on to organ failure. In an attempt to identify molecules that could provide this information, we used microarrays to analyze gene expression in 105 for-cause biopsies taken between 1 and 31 years after transplantation. Using supervised principal components analysis, we derived a molecular classifier to predict graft loss. The genes associated with graft failure were related to tissue injury, epithelial dedifferentiation, matrix remodeling, and TGF-beta effects and showed little overlap with rejection-associated genes. We assigned a prognostic molecular risk score to each patient, identifying those at high or low risk for graft loss. The molecular risk score was correlated with interstitial fibrosis, tubular atrophy, tubulitis, interstitial inflammation, proteinuria, and glomerular filtration rate. In multivariate analysis, molecular risk score, peritubular capillary basement membrane multilayering, arteriolar hyalinosis, and proteinuria were independent predictors of graft loss. In an independent validation set, the molecular risk score was the only predictor of graft loss. Thus, the molecular risk score reflects active injury and is superior to either scarring or function in predicting graft failure.

Coronary artery disease in young women and men with long-standing insulin-dependent diabetes.

The prevalence and predictors of coronary artery disease were examined in people aged 40 years and younger with insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus. Analysis was performed on those who presented between 1999 and 2003 for kidney and/or pancreas transplant at the University of Minnesota, as all patients who have diabetes mellitus are required to have perioperative cardiology evaluation. The mean age was 33.5 +/- 4.4 years for 88 subjects, all had insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus, and 33% were dialysis dependent. Severe coronary artery disease was found in 18.2% of women and in 24.2% of men. Three-vessel coronary artery disease trended less in women (9.1%) compared with men (12.1%). Multivariate predictors for severe and 3-vessel coronary artery disease included prior coronary artery disease, hypertension duration, and ST-T wave changes on electrocardiogram. Coronary artery disease is twice as high as expected in young woman. Studies on early management for atherosclerosis are warranted in this high-risk population.