Application of simultaneous uncertainty quantification and segmentation for oropharyngeal cancer use-case with Bayesian deep learning.

BACKGROUND: Radiotherapy is a core treatment modality for oropharyngeal cancer (OPC), where the primary gross tumor volume (GTVp) is manually segmented with high interobserver variability. This calls for reliable and trustworthy automated tools in clinician workflow. Therefore, accurate uncertainty quantification and its downstream utilization is critical. METHODS: Here we propose uncertainty-aware deep learning for OPC GTVp segmentation, and illustrate the utility of uncertainty in multiple applications. We examine two Bayesian deep learning (BDL) models and eight uncertainty measures, and utilize a large multi-institute dataset of 292 PET/CT scans to systematically analyze our approach. RESULTS: We show that our uncertainty-based approach accurately predicts the quality of the deep learning segmentation in 86.6% of cases, identifies low performance cases for semi-automated correction, and visualizes regions of the scans where the segmentations likely fail. CONCLUSIONS: Our BDL-based analysis provides a first-step towards more widespread implementation of uncertainty quantification in OPC GTVp segmentation.

Radiotherapy is used as a treatment for people with oropharyngeal cancer. It is important to distinguish the areas where cancer is present so the radiotherapy treatment can be targeted at the cancer. Computational methods based on artificial intelligence can automate this task but need to be able to distinguish areas where it is unclear whether cancer is present. In this study we compare these computational methods that are able to highlight areas where it is unclear whether or not cancer is present. Our approach accurately predicts how well these areas are distinguished by the models. Our results could be applied to improve the computational methods used during radiotherapy treatment. This could enable more targeted treatment to be used in the future, which could result in better outcomes for people with oropharyngeal cancer.

Socio-economic pandemic modelling: case of Spain.

A global disaster, such as the recent Covid-19 pandemic, affects every aspect of our lives and there is a need to investigate these highly complex phenomena if one aims to diminish their impact in the health of the population, as well as their socio-economic stability. In this paper we present an attempt to understand the role of the governmental authorities and the response of the rest of the population facing such emergencies. We present a mathematical model that takes into account the epidemiological features of the pandemic and also the actions of people responding to it, focusing only on three aspects of the system, namely, the fear of catching this serious disease, the impact on the economic activities and the compliance of the people to the mitigating measures adopted by the authorities. We apply the model to the specific case of Spain, since there are accurate data available about these three features. We focused on tourism as an example of the economic activity, since this sector of economy is one of the most likely to be affected by the restrictions imposed by the authorities, and because it represents an important part of Spanish economy. The results of numerical calculations agree with the empirical data in such a way that we can acquire a better insight of the different processes at play in such a complex situation, and also in other different circumstances.

Development and Validation of an Automated Image-Based Deep Learning Platform for Sarcopenia Assessment in Head and Neck Cancer.

Importance: Sarcopenia is an established prognostic factor in patients with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC); the quantification of sarcopenia assessed by imaging is typically achieved through the skeletal muscle index (SMI), which can be derived from cervical skeletal muscle segmentation and cross-sectional area. However, manual muscle segmentation is labor intensive, prone to interobserver variability, and impractical for large-scale clinical use. Objective: To develop and externally validate a fully automated image-based deep learning platform for cervical vertebral muscle segmentation and SMI calculation and evaluate associations with survival and treatment toxicity outcomes. Design, Setting, and Participants: For this prognostic study, a model development data set was curated from publicly available and deidentified data from patients with HNSCC treated at MD Anderson Cancer Center between January 1, 2003, and December 31, 2013. A total of 899 patients undergoing primary radiation for HNSCC with abdominal computed tomography scans and complete clinical information were selected. An external validation data set was retrospectively collected from patients undergoing primary radiation therapy between January 1, 1996, and December 31, 2013, at Brigham and Women's Hospital. The data analysis was performed between May 1, 2022, and March 31, 2023. Exposure: C3 vertebral skeletal muscle segmentation during radiation therapy for HNSCC. Main Outcomes and Measures: Overall survival and treatment toxicity outcomes of HNSCC. Results: The total patient cohort comprised 899 patients with HNSCC (median [range] age, 58 [24-90] years; 140 female [15.6%] and 755 male [84.0%]). Dice similarity coefficients for the validation set (n = 96) and internal test set (n = 48) were 0.90 (95% CI, 0.90-0.91) and 0.90 (95% CI, 0.89-0.91), respectively, with a mean 96.2% acceptable rate between 2 reviewers on external clinical testing (n = 377). Estimated cross-sectional area and SMI values were associated with manually annotated values (Pearson r = 0.99; P < .001) across data sets. On multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression, SMI-derived sarcopenia was associated with worse overall survival (hazard ratio, 2.05; 95% CI, 1.04-4.04; P = .04) and longer feeding tube duration (median [range], 162 [6-1477] vs 134 [15-1255] days; hazard ratio, 0.66; 95% CI, 0.48-0.89; P = .006) than no sarcopenia. Conclusions and Relevance: This prognostic study's findings show external validation of a fully automated deep learning pipeline to accurately measure sarcopenia in HNSCC and an association with important disease outcomes. The pipeline could enable the integration of sarcopenia assessment into clinical decision making for individuals with HNSCC.

Reproducibility analysis of automated deep learning based localisation of mandibular canals on a temporal CBCT dataset.

Preoperative radiological identification of mandibular canals is essential for maxillofacial surgery. This study demonstrates the reproducibility of a deep learning system (DLS) by evaluating its localisation performance on 165 heterogeneous cone beam computed tomography (CBCT) scans from 72 patients in comparison to an experienced radiologist's annotations. We evaluated the performance of the DLS using the symmetric mean curve distance (SMCD), the average symmetric surface distance (ASSD), and the Dice similarity coefficient (DSC). The reproducibility of the SMCD was assessed using the within-subject coefficient of repeatability (RC). Three other experts rated the diagnostic validity twice using a 0-4 Likert scale. The reproducibility of the Likert scoring was assessed using the repeatability measure (RM). The RC of SMCD was 0.969 mm, the median (interquartile range) SMCD and ASSD were 0.643 (0.186) mm and 0.351 (0.135) mm, respectively, and the mean (standard deviation) DSC was 0.548 (0.138). The DLS performance was most affected by postoperative changes. The RM of the Likert scoring was 0.923 for the radiologist and 0.877 for the DLS. The mean (standard deviation) Likert score was 3.94 (0.27) for the radiologist and 3.84 (0.65) for the DLS. The DLS demonstrated proficient qualitative and quantitative reproducibility, temporal generalisability, and clinical validity.

Application of simultaneous uncertainty quantification for image segmentation with probabilistic deep learning: Performance benchmarking of oropharyngeal cancer target delineation as a use-case.

Background: Oropharyngeal cancer (OPC) is a widespread disease, with radiotherapy being a core treatment modality. Manual segmentation of the primary gross tumor volume (GTVp) is currently employed for OPC radiotherapy planning, but is subject to significant interobserver variability. Deep learning (DL) approaches have shown promise in automating GTVp segmentation, but comparative (auto)confidence metrics of these models predictions has not been well-explored. Quantifying instance-specific DL model uncertainty is crucial to improving clinician trust and facilitating broad clinical implementation. Therefore, in this study, probabilistic DL models for GTVp auto-segmentation were developed using large-scale PET/CT datasets, and various uncertainty auto-estimation methods were systematically investigated and benchmarked. Methods: We utilized the publicly available 2021 HECKTOR Challenge training dataset with 224 co-registered PET/CT scans of OPC patients with corresponding GTVp segmentations as a development set. A separate set of 67 co-registered PET/CT scans of OPC patients with corresponding GTVp segmentations was used for external validation. Two approximate Bayesian deep learning methods, the MC Dropout Ensemble and Deep Ensemble, both with five submodels, were evaluated for GTVp segmentation and uncertainty performance. The segmentation performance was evaluated using the volumetric Dice similarity coefficient (DSC), mean surface distance (MSD), and Hausdorff distance at 95% (95HD). The uncertainty was evaluated using four measures from literature: coefficient of variation (CV), structure expected entropy, structure predictive entropy, and structure mutual information, and additionally with our novel Dice-risk measure. The utility of uncertainty information was evaluated with the accuracy of uncertainty-based segmentation performance prediction using the Accuracy vs Uncertainty (AvU) metric, and by examining the linear correlation between uncertainty estimates and DSC. In addition, batch-based and instance-based referral processes were examined, where the patients with high uncertainty were rejected from the set. In the batch referral process, the area under the referral curve with DSC (R-DSC AUC) was used for evaluation, whereas in the instance referral process, the DSC at various uncertainty thresholds were examined. Results: Both models behaved similarly in terms of the segmentation performance and uncertainty estimation. Specifically, the MC Dropout Ensemble had 0.776 DSC, 1.703 mm MSD, and 5.385 mm 95HD. The Deep Ensemble had 0.767 DSC, 1.717 mm MSD, and 5.477 mm 95HD. The uncertainty measure with the highest DSC correlation was structure predictive entropy with correlation coefficients of 0.699 and 0.692 for the MC Dropout Ensemble and the Deep Ensemble, respectively. The highest AvU value was 0.866 for both models. The best performing uncertainty measure for both models was the CV which had R-DSC AUC of 0.783 and 0.782 for the MC Dropout Ensemble and Deep Ensemble, respectively. With referring patients based on uncertainty thresholds from 0.85 validation DSC for all uncertainty measures, on average the DSC improved from the full dataset by 4.7% and 5.0% while referring 21.8% and 22% patients for MC Dropout Ensemble and Deep Ensemble, respectively. Conclusion: We found that many of the investigated methods provide overall similar but distinct utility in terms of predicting segmentation quality and referral performance. These findings are a critical first-step towards more widespread implementation of uncertainty quantification in OPC GTVp segmentation.

Fully-automated sarcopenia assessment in head and neck cancer: development and external validation of a deep learning pipeline.

Purpose: Sarcopenia is an established prognostic factor in patients diagnosed with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC). The quantification of sarcopenia assessed by imaging is typically achieved through the skeletal muscle index (SMI), which can be derived from cervical neck skeletal muscle (SM) segmentation and cross-sectional area. However, manual SM segmentation is labor-intensive, prone to inter-observer variability, and impractical for large-scale clinical use. To overcome this challenge, we have developed and externally validated a fully-automated image-based deep learning (DL) platform for cervical vertebral SM segmentation and SMI calculation, and evaluated the relevance of this with survival and toxicity outcomes. Materials and Methods: 899 patients diagnosed as having HNSCC with CT scans from multiple institutes were included, with 335 cases utilized for training, 96 for validation, 48 for internal testing and 393 for external testing. Ground truth single-slice segmentations of SM at the C3 vertebra level were manually generated by experienced radiation oncologists. To develop an efficient method of segmenting the SM, a multi-stage DL pipeline was implemented, consisting of a 2D convolutional neural network (CNN) to select the middle slice of C3 section and a 2D U-Net to segment SM areas. The model performance was evaluated using the Dice Similarity Coefficient (DSC) as the primary metric for the internal test set, and for the external test set the quality of automated segmentation was assessed manually by two experienced radiation oncologists. The L3 skeletal muscle area (SMA) and SMI were then calculated from the C3 cross sectional area (CSA) of the auto-segmented SM. Finally, established SMI cut-offs were used to perform further analyses to assess the correlation with survival and toxicity endpoints in the external institution with univariable and multivariable Cox regression. Results: DSCs for validation set (n = 96) and internal test set (n = 48) were 0.90 (95% CI: 0.90 - 0.91) and 0.90 (95% CI: 0.89 - 0.91), respectively. The predicted CSA is highly correlated with the ground-truth CSA in both validation (r = 0.99, p < 0.0001) and test sets (r = 0.96, p < 0.0001). In the external test set (n = 377), 96.2% of the SM segmentations were deemed acceptable by consensus expert review. Predicted SMA and SMI values were highly correlated with the ground-truth values, with Pearson r ß 0.99 (p < 0.0001) for both the female and male patients in all datasets. Sarcopenia was associated with worse OS (HR 2.05 [95% CI 1.04 - 4.04], p = 0.04) and longer PEG tube duration (median 162 days vs. 134 days, HR 1.51 [95% CI 1.12 - 2.08], p = 0.006 in multivariate analysis. Conclusion: We developed and externally validated a fully-automated platform that strongly correlates with imaging-assessed sarcopenia in patients with H&N cancer that correlates with survival and toxicity outcomes. This study constitutes a significant stride towards the integration of sarcopenia assessment into decision-making for individuals diagnosed with HNSCC. SUMMARY STATEMENT: In this study, we developed and externally validated a deep learning model to investigate the impact of sarcopenia, defined as the loss of skeletal muscle mass, on patients with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) undergoing radiotherapy. We demonstrated an efficient, fullyautomated deep learning pipeline that can accurately segment C3 skeletal muscle area, calculate cross-sectional area, and derive a skeletal muscle index to diagnose sarcopenia from a standard of care CT scan. In multi-institutional data, we found that pre-treatment sarcopenia was associated with significantly reduced overall survival and an increased risk of adverse events. Given the increased vulnerability of patients with HNSCC, the assessment of sarcopenia prior to radiotherapy may aid in informed treatment decision-making and serve as a predictive marker for the necessity of early supportive measures.

Segmentation stability of human head and neck cancer medical images for radiotherapy applications under de-identification conditions: Benchmarking data sharing and artificial intelligence use-cases.

Background: Demand for head and neck cancer (HNC) radiotherapy data in algorithmic development has prompted increased image dataset sharing. Medical images must comply with data protection requirements so that re-use is enabled without disclosing patient identifiers. Defacing, i.e., the removal of facial features from images, is often considered a reasonable compromise between data protection and re-usability for neuroimaging data. While defacing tools have been developed by the neuroimaging community, their acceptability for radiotherapy applications have not been explored. Therefore, this study systematically investigated the impact of available defacing algorithms on HNC organs at risk (OARs). Methods: A publicly available dataset of magnetic resonance imaging scans for 55 HNC patients with eight segmented OARs (bilateral submandibular glands, parotid glands, level II neck lymph nodes, level III neck lymph nodes) was utilized. Eight publicly available defacing algorithms were investigated: afni_refacer, DeepDefacer, defacer, fsl_deface, mask_face, mri_deface, pydeface, and quickshear. Using a subset of scans where defacing succeeded (N=29), a 5-fold cross-validation 3D U-net based OAR auto-segmentation model was utilized to perform two main experiments: 1.) comparing original and defaced data for training when evaluated on original data; 2.) using original data for training and comparing the model evaluation on original and defaced data. Models were primarily assessed using the Dice similarity coefficient (DSC). Results: Most defacing methods were unable to produce any usable images for evaluation, while mask_face, fsl_deface, and pydeface were unable to remove the face for 29%, 18%, and 24% of subjects, respectively. When using the original data for evaluation, the composite OAR DSC was statistically higher (p ≤ 0.05) for the model trained with the original data with a DSC of 0.760 compared to the mask_face, fsl_deface, and pydeface models with DSCs of 0.742, 0.736, and 0.449, respectively. Moreover, the model trained with original data had decreased performance (p ≤ 0.05) when evaluated on the defaced data with DSCs of 0.673, 0.693, and 0.406 for mask_face, fsl_deface, and pydeface, respectively. Conclusion: Defacing algorithms may have a significant impact on HNC OAR auto-segmentation model training and testing. This work highlights the need for further development of HNC-specific image anonymization methods.

Knowledge mining of unstructured information: application to cyber domain.

Information on cyber-related crimes, incidents, and conflicts is abundantly available in numerous open online sources. However, processing large volumes and streams of data is a challenging task for the analysts and experts, and entails the need for newer methods and techniques. In this article we present and implement a novel knowledge graph and knowledge mining framework for extracting the relevant information from free-form text about incidents in the cyber domain. The computational framework includes a machine learning-based pipeline for generating graphs of organizations, countries, industries, products and attackers with a non-technical cyber-ontology. The extracted knowledge graph is utilized to estimate the incidence of cyberattacks within a given graph configuration. We use publicly available collections of real cyber-incident reports to test the efficacy of our methods. The knowledge extraction is found to be sufficiently accurate, and the graph-based threat estimation demonstrates a level of correlation with the actual records of attacks. In practical use, an analyst utilizing the presented framework can infer additional information from the current cyber-landscape in terms of the risk to various entities and its propagation between industries and countries.

Comparison of deep learning segmentation and multigrader-annotated mandibular canals of multicenter CBCT scans.

Deep learning approach has been demonstrated to automatically segment the bilateral mandibular canals from CBCT scans, yet systematic studies of its clinical and technical validation are scarce. To validate the mandibular canal localization accuracy of a deep learning system (DLS) we trained it with 982 CBCT scans and evaluated using 150 scans of five scanners from clinical workflow patients of European and Southeast Asian Institutes, annotated by four radiologists. The interobserver variability was compared to the variability between the DLS and the radiologists. In addition, the generalisation of DLS to CBCT scans from scanners not used in the training data was examined to evaluate its out-of-distribution performance. The DLS had a statistically significant difference (p < 0.001) with lower variability to the radiologists with 0.74 mm than the interobserver variability of 0.77 mm and generalised to new devices with 0.63 mm, 0.67 mm and 0.87 mm (p < 0.001). For the radiologists' consensus segmentation, used as a gold standard, the DLS showed a symmetric mean curve distance of 0.39 mm, which was statistically significantly different (p < 0.001) compared to those of the individual radiologists with values of 0.62 mm, 0.55 mm, 0.47 mm, and 0.42 mm. These results show promise towards integration of DLS into clinical workflow to reduce time-consuming and labour-intensive manual tasks in implantology.

Artificial Intelligence for Radiation Oncology Applications Using Public Datasets.

Artificial intelligence (AI) has exceptional potential to positively impact the field of radiation oncology. However, large curated datasets - often involving imaging data and corresponding annotations - are required to develop radiation oncology AI models. Importantly, the recent establishment of Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, Reusable (FAIR) principles for scientific data management have enabled an increasing number of radiation oncology related datasets to be disseminated through data repositories, thereby acting as a rich source of data for AI model building. This manuscript reviews the current and future state of radiation oncology data dissemination, with a particular emphasis on published imaging datasets, AI data challenges, and associated infrastructure. Moreover, we provide historical context of FAIR data dissemination protocols, difficulties in the current distribution of radiation oncology data, and recommendations regarding data dissemination for eventual utilization in AI models. Through FAIR principles and standardized approaches to data dissemination, radiation oncology AI research has nothing to lose and everything to gain.

Deep learning auto-segmentation of cervical skeletal muscle for sarcopenia analysis in patients with head and neck cancer.

Background/Purpose: Sarcopenia is a prognostic factor in patients with head and neck cancer (HNC). Sarcopenia can be determined using the skeletal muscle index (SMI) calculated from cervical neck skeletal muscle (SM) segmentations. However, SM segmentation requires manual input, which is time-consuming and variable. Therefore, we developed a fully-automated approach to segment cervical vertebra SM. Materials/Methods: 390 HNC patients with contrast-enhanced CT scans were utilized (300-training, 90-testing). Ground-truth single-slice SM segmentations at the C3 vertebra were manually generated. A multi-stage deep learning pipeline was developed, where a 3D ResUNet auto-segmented the C3 section (33 mm window), the middle slice of the section was auto-selected, and a 2D ResUNet auto-segmented the auto-selected slice. Both the 3D and 2D approaches trained five sub-models (5-fold cross-validation) and combined sub-model predictions on the test set using majority vote ensembling. Model performance was primarily determined using the Dice similarity coefficient (DSC). Predicted SMI was calculated using the auto-segmented SM cross-sectional area. Finally, using established SMI cutoffs, we performed a Kaplan-Meier analysis to determine associations with overall survival. Results: Mean test set DSC of the 3D and 2D models were 0.96 and 0.95, respectively. Predicted SMI had high correlation to the ground-truth SMI in males and females (r>0.96). Predicted SMI stratified patients for overall survival in males (log-rank p = 0.01) but not females (log-rank p = 0.07), consistent with ground-truth SMI. Conclusion: We developed a high-performance, multi-stage, fully-automated approach to segment cervical vertebra SM. Our study is an essential step towards fully-automated sarcopenia-related decision-making in patients with HNC.

Muscle and adipose tissue segmentations at the third cervical vertebral level in patients with head and neck cancer.

The accurate determination of sarcopenia is critical for disease management in patients with head and neck cancer (HNC). Quantitative determination of sarcopenia is currently dependent on manually-generated segmentations of skeletal muscle derived from computed tomography (CT) cross-sectional imaging. This has prompted the increasing utilization of machine learning models for automated sarcopenia determination. However, extant datasets currently do not provide the necessary manually-generated skeletal muscle segmentations at the C3 vertebral level needed for building these models. In this data descriptor, a set of 394 HNC patients were selected from The Cancer Imaging Archive, and their skeletal muscle and adipose tissue was manually segmented at the C3 vertebral level using sliceOmatic. Subsequently, using publicly disseminated Python scripts, we generated corresponding segmentations files in Neuroimaging Informatics Technology Initiative format. In addition to segmentation data, additional clinical demographic data germane to body composition analysis have been retrospectively collected for these patients. These data are a valuable resource for studying sarcopenia and body composition analysis in patients with HNC.

Auto-detection and segmentation of involved lymph nodes in HPV-associated oropharyngeal cancer using a convolutional deep learning neural network.

Purpose: Segmentation of involved lymph nodes on head and neck computed tomography (HN-CT) scans is necessary for the radiotherapy planning of early-stage human papilloma virus (HPV) associated oropharynx cancers (OPC). We aimed to train a deep learning convolutional neural network (DL-CNN) to segment involved lymph nodes on HN-CT scans. Methods: Ground-truth segmentation of involved nodes was performed on pre-surgical HN-CT scans for 90 patients who underwent levels II-IV neck dissection for node-positive HPV-OPC (training/validation [n = 70] and testing [n = 20]). A 5-fold cross validation approach was used to train 5 DL-CNN sub-models based on a residual U-net architecture. Validation and testing segmentation masks were compared to ground-truth masks using predetermined metrics. A lymph auto-detection model to discriminate between "node-positive" and "node-negative" HN-CT scans was developed by thresholding segmentation model outputs and evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Results: In the DL-CNN validation phase, all sub-models yielded segmentation masks with median Dice ≥ 0.90 and median volume similarity score of ≥ 0.95. In the testing phase, the DL-CNN produced consensus segmentation masks with median Dice of 0.92 (IQR, 0.89-0.95), median volume similarity of 0.97 (IQR, 0.94-0.99), and median Hausdorff distance of 4.52 mm (IQR, 1.22-8.38). The detection model achieved an AUC of 0.98. Conclusion: The results from this single-institution study demonstrate the successful automation of lymph node segmentation for patients with HPV-OPC using a DL-CNN. Future studies, including validation with an external dataset, are necessary to clarify its role in the larger radiation oncology treatment planning workflow.

Turnover in close friendships.

Humans are social animals and the interpersonal bonds formed between them are crucial for their development and well being in a society. These relationships are usually structured into several layers (Dunbar's layers of friendship) depending on their significance in an individual's life with closest friends and family being the most important ones taking major part of their time and communication effort. However, we have little idea how the initiation and termination of these relationships occurs across the lifespan. Mobile phones, in particular, have been used extensively to shed light on the different types of social interactions between individuals and to explore this, we analyse a national cellphone database to determine how and when changes in close relationships occur in the two genders. In general, membership of this inner circle of intimate relationships is extremely stable, at least over a three-year period. However, around 1-4% of alters change every year, with the rate of change being higher among 17-21 year olds than older adults. Young adult females terminate more of their opposite-gender relationships, while older males are more persistent in trying to maintain relationships in decline. These results emphasise the variability in relationship dynamics across age and gender, and remind us that individual differences play an important role in the structure of social networks. Overall, our study provides a holistic understanding of the dynamic nature of close relationships during different stages of human life.

Deep Learning Exploration of Agent-Based Social Network Model Parameters.

Interactions between humans give rise to complex social networks that are characterized by heterogeneous degree distribution, weight-topology relation, overlapping community structure, and dynamics of links. Understanding these characteristics of social networks is the primary goal of their research as they constitute scaffolds for various emergent social phenomena from disease spreading to political movements. An appropriate tool for studying them is agent-based modeling, in which nodes, representing individuals, make decisions about creating and deleting links, thus yielding various macroscopic behavioral patterns. Here we focus on studying a generalization of the weighted social network model, being one of the most fundamental agent-based models for describing the formation of social ties and social networks. This generalized weighted social network (GWSN) model incorporates triadic closure, homophilic interactions, and various link termination mechanisms, which have been studied separately in the previous works. Accordingly, the GWSN model has an increased number of input parameters and the model behavior gets excessively complex, making it challenging to clarify the model behavior. We have executed massive simulations with a supercomputer and used the results as the training data for deep neural networks to conduct regression analysis for predicting the properties of the generated networks from the input parameters. The obtained regression model was also used for global sensitivity analysis to identify which parameters are influential or insignificant. We believe that this methodology is applicable for a large class of complex network models, thus opening the way for more realistic quantitative agent-based modeling.

Balanced-imbalanced transitions in indirect reciprocity dynamics on networks.

Here we investigate the dynamics of indirect reciprocity on networks, a type of social dynamics in which the attitude of individuals, either cooperative or antagonistic, toward other individuals changes over time based upon their actions and mutual monitoring. We observe an absorbing state phase transition as we change the network's link or edge density. When the edge density is either small or large enough, opinions quickly reach an absorbing state, from which opinions never change anymore once reached. In contrast, if the edge density is in the middle range, the absorbing state is not reached and the state keeps changing, thus being active. The result shows an effect of social networks on spontaneous group formation.

Ecology of the digital world of Wikipedia.

Wikipedia, a paradigmatic example of online knowledge space is organized in a collaborative, bottom-up way with voluntary contributions, yet it maintains a level of reliability comparable to that of traditional encyclopedias. The lack of selected professional writers and editors makes the judgement about quality and trustworthiness of the articles a real challenge. Here we show that a self-consistent metrics for the network defined by the edit records captures well the character of editors' activity and the articles' level of complexity. Using our metrics, one can better identify the human-labeled high-quality articles, e.g., "featured" ones, and differentiate them from the popular and controversial articles. Furthermore, the dynamics of the editor-article system is also well captured by the metrics, revealing the evolutionary pathways of articles and diverse roles of editors. We demonstrate that the collective effort of the editors indeed drives to the direction of article improvement.

Morningness-eveningness assessment from mobile phone communication analysis.

Human behaviour follows a 24-h rhythm and is known to be governed by the individual chronotypes. Due to the widespread use of technology in our daily lives, it is possible to record the activities of individuals through their different digital traces. In the present study we utilise a large mobile phone communication dataset containing time stamps of calls and text messages to study the circadian rhythms of anonymous users in a European country. After removing the effect of the synchronization of East-West sun progression with the calling activity, we used two closely related approaches to heuristically compute the chronotypes of the individuals in the dataset, to identify them as morning persons or "larks" and evening persons or "owls". Using the computed chronotypes we showed how the chronotype is largely dependent on age with younger cohorts being more likely to be owls than older cohorts. Moreover, our analysis showed how on average females have distinctly different chronotypes from males. Younger females are more larkish than males while older females are more owlish. Finally, we also studied the period of low calling activity for each of the users which is considered as a marker of their sleep period during the night. We found that while "extreme larks" tend to sleep more than "extreme owls" on the weekends, we do not observe much variation between them on weekdays. In addition, we have observed that women tend to sleep even less than males on weekdays while there is not much difference between them on the weekends.

A model for social spreading of Covid-19: Cases of Mexico, Finland and Iceland.

The shocking severity of the Covid-19 pandemic has woken up an unprecedented interest and accelerated effort of the scientific community to model and forecast epidemic spreading to find ways to control it regionally and between regions. Here we present a model that in addition to describing the dynamics of epidemic spreading with the traditional compartmental approach takes into account the social behaviour of the population distributed over a geographical region. The region to be modelled is defined as a two-dimensional grid of cells, in which each cell is weighted with the population density. In each cell a compartmental SEIRS system of delay difference equations is used to simulate the local dynamics of the disease. The infections between cells are modelled by a network of connections, which could be terrestrial, between neighbouring cells, or long range, between cities by air, road or train traffic. In addition, since people make trips without apparent reason, noise is considered to account for them to carry contagion between two randomly chosen distant cells. Hence, there is a clear separation of the parameters related to the biological characteristics of the disease from the ones that represent the spatial spread of infections due to social behaviour. We demonstrate that these parameters provide sufficient information to trace the evolution of the pandemic in different situations. In order to show the predictive power of this kind of approach we have chosen three, in a number of ways different countries, Mexico, Finland and Iceland, in which the pandemics have followed different dynamic paths. Furthermore we find that our model seems quite capable of reproducing the path of the pandemic for months with few initial data. Unlike similar models, our model shows the emergence of multiple waves in the case when the disease becomes endemic.