Intensification patterns and the probability of HbA1c goal attainment in Type 2 diabetes mellitus: real-world evidence for the concept of 'intensification inertia'.

AIMS: To assess the effects of 'clinical' and 'intensification inertia' by evaluating the impact of different intensification interventions on the probability of HbA1c goal attainment using real-world data. METHODS: Electronic health records (Cleveland Clinic, 2005-2016) were used to identify 7389 people with Type 2 diabetes mellitus and HbA1c ≥53 mmol/mol (≥7.0%), despite a stable regimen of two oral antihyperglycaemic drugs for ≥6 months. The participants were stratified by index HbA1c and analysed over a 6-month period for pharmacological intensification, and then for 12 additional months for HbA1c goal attainment (<53 mmol/mol). RESULTS: The probability of HbA1c goal attainment (Kaplan-Meier analysis) in the group with index HbA1c 53-63 mmol/mol (7.0-7.9%) was highest with the addition of oral antidiabetic drugs [57.3% (95% CI 52.1, 62.0)] or glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists [56.7% (95% CI 40.4, 68.6)], in the 64-74 mmol/mol (8.0-8.9%) group with the addition of oral antidiabetic drugs [31.9% (95% CI 25.1, 38.1)] or insulin [30.6% (95% CI 18.3, 41.0)], and in the ≥75 mmol/mol (≥9.0%) group with the addition of glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists [53.0% (95% CI 31.8, 67.6)] or insulin [43.5% (95% CI 36.4, 49.8)]. CONCLUSIONS: Numerical, but not statistically significant, differences in HbA1c goal attainment probability by type of intensification were most marked in people with the highest index HbA1c [≥75 mmol/mol (≥9.0%)]; in this group, injectable therapy showed trends toward greater glycaemic control benefits. Additional research into the phenomenon of intensification inertia is warranted.

The multinomial logistic regression model for predicting the discharge status after liver transplantation: estimation and diagnostics analysis.

The multinomial logistic regression model (MLRM) can be interpreted as a natural extension of the binomial model with logit link function to situations where the response variable can have three or more possible outcomes. In addition, when the categories of the response variable are nominal, the MLRM can be expressed in terms of two or more logistic models and analyzed in both frequentist and Bayesian approaches. However, few discussions about post modeling in categorical data models are found in the literature, and they mainly use Bayesian inference. The objective of this work is to present classic and Bayesian diagnostic measures for categorical data models. These measures are applied to a dataset (status) of patients undergoing kidney transplantation.

An exploratory analysis of alkaline phosphatase, lactate dehydrogenase, and prostate-specific antigen dynamics in the phase 3 ALSYMPCA trial with radium-223.

Background: Baseline clinical variables are prognostic for overall survival (OS) in patients with castration-resistant prostate cancer (CRPC). Their prognostic and predictive value with agents targeting bone metastases, such as radium-223, is not established. Patients and methods: The radium-223 ALSYMPCA trial enrolled patients with CRPC and symptomatic bone metastases. Prognostic potential of baseline variables was assessed using Cox models. Percentage changes in biomarker levels from baseline were evaluated during the trial period; changes from baseline to week 12 were evaluated for association with OS and surrogacy. Results: Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status, total alkaline phosphatase (tALP), lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), and prostate-specific antigen (PSA) at baseline were associated with OS (P ≤ 0.0003) in the intent-to-treat population (radium-223, N = 614; placebo, N = 307). tALP declined from baseline within 4 weeks after beginning radium-223, by week 12 declining in 87% of radium-223 and 23% of placebo patients (P < 0.001). LDH declined in 51% and 34% (P = 0.003), whereas PSA declined in 27% and 14% (P = 0.160). Mean tALP change from baseline was 32.2% decrease with radium-223 and 37.2% increase with placebo. Radium-223 patients with tALP decline from baseline to week 12 (confirmed ≥3 weeks from week 12) had 55% lower risk of death (hazard ratio = 0.45; 95% CI 0.34-0.61) versus those with no confirmed tALP decline. Proportional treatment effect (PTE) values for tALP, LDH, and PSA changes from baseline at week 12 as OS surrogate markers were 0.34 (95% CI: 0-0.746), 0.07 (95% CI: 0-0.211), and 0 (95% CI: 0-0.082), respectively. Conclusions: Significant tALP declines (versus placebo) occurred as early as 4 weeks after beginning radium-223 therapy. tALP or LDH declines at 12 weeks correlated with longer OS, but did not meet statistical surrogacy requirements. Dynamic changes in tALP and LDH during radium-223 treatments may be useful to monitor, but do not serve as surrogates for survival.

High PSA anxiety and low health literacy skills: drivers of early use of salvage ADT among men with biochemically recurrent prostate cancer after radiotherapy?

BACKGROUND: Although commonly used, early initiation of salvage androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) has not been proven to enhance survival. We evaluated whether prostate-specific antigen (PSA) anxiety or health literacy are associated with use of early salvage ADT among men with recurrent prostate cancer after radiotherapy. PATIENTS AND METHODS: The prospective Comprehensive, Observational, Multicenter, Prostate Adenocarcinoma Registry was used to study 375 men with biochemically recurrent prostate cancer after external beam radiation or brachytherapy. Multivariable logistic regression was used to determine whether PSA anxiety and health literacy are associated with salvage ADT as initial management after biochemical recurrence. RESULTS: Sixty-eight men (18.1%) received salvage ADT as initial management for PSA recurrence. Men with high PSA anxiety were twice as likely to receive salvage ADT compared with men who did not have high PSA anxiety on both univariable [28.8% versus 13.1%; odds ratio (OR) 2.15; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.16-4.00; P = 0.015] and multivariable analysis [adjusted OR (AOR) 2.36; 95% CI 1.21-4.62; P = 0.012]. Furthermore, men who had higher levels of health literacy were nearly half as likely to undergo salvage ADT compared with men who had lower levels of health literacy on univariable analysis (15.2% versus 26.3%; OR 0.50; 95% CI 0.29-0.88; P = 0.016), with a trend toward this association on multivariable analysis (AOR 0.58; 95% CI 0.32-1.05; P = 0.07). CONCLUSIONS: Among men with PSA recurrence after radiotherapy, odds of use of salvage ADT were nearly twice as great among men with high PSA anxiety or low health literacy, suggesting that these men are receiving higher rates of unproven treatment. Given that early salvage ADT is costly, worsens quality of life, and has not been shown to improve survival, quality improvement strategies are needed for these individuals.

The association between race and treatment regret among men with recurrent prostate cancer.

BACKGROUND: To examine the impact of race on treatment regret among men with recurrent prostate cancer after surgery or radiation. METHODS: The prospective Comprehensive, Observational, Multicenter, Prostate Adenocarcinoma (COMPARE) registry was used to study a cohort of 484 men with biochemically recurrent prostate cancer after radical prostatectomy, external beam radiation or brachytherapy. Multivariable logistic regression was used to model the association between race and treatment regret and to determine whether there was an interaction between race and sexual problems after treatment with regards to treatment regret. RESULTS: Black men (N=78) were significantly more likely to have treatment regret when compared with non-black men (N=406; 21.8% versus 12.6%) on univariable analysis (odds ratio (OR) 1.94; 95% confidence interval 1.05-3.56; P=0.03). On multivariable analysis, black race trended towards but was no longer significantly associated with an increase in treatment regret (adjusted OR (AOR) 1.84 (0.95-3.58); P=0.071). There was an interaction between race and sexual problems after treatment (Pinteraction=0.02) such that among those without sexual problems, black men had more treatment regret than non-black men (26.7% versus 8.4%: AOR 4.68 (1.73-12.63); P=0.002), whereas among those with sexual problems, there was no difference in treatment regret between black and non-black men (18.8% versus 17.3%: AOR 1.04 (0.44-2.46); P=0.93). CONCLUSIONS: Among men with recurrent prostate cancer after surgery or radiation, black men were nearly twice as likely to experience treatment regret. Treating physicians should ensure that patients are fully apprised of the pros and cons of all treatment options to reduce the risk of subsequent regret.

Autologous haematopoietic stem cell mobilisation in multiple myeloma and lymphoma patients: a position statement from the European Group for Blood and Marrow Transplantation.

Autologous haematopoietic SCT with PBSCs is regularly used to restore BM function in patients with multiple myeloma or lymphoma after myeloablative chemotherapy. Twenty-eight experts from the European Group for Blood and Marrow Transplantation developed a position statement on the best approaches to mobilising PBSCs and on possibilities of optimising graft yields in patients who mobilise poorly. Choosing the appropriate mobilisation regimen, based on patients' disease stage and condition, and optimising the apheresis protocol can improve mobilisation outcomes. Several factors may influence mobilisation outcomes, including older age, a more advanced disease stage, the type of prior chemotherapy (e.g., fludarabine or melphalan), prior irradiation or a higher number of prior treatment lines. The most robust predictive factor for poor PBSC collection is the CD34(+) cell count in PB before apheresis. Determination of the CD34(+) cell count in PB before apheresis helps to identify patients at risk of poor PBSC collection and allows pre-emptive intervention to rescue mobilisation in these patients. Such a proactive approach might help to overcome deficiencies in stem cell mobilisation and offers a rationale for the use of novel mobilisation agents.

Gender-specific effects of oral hypoglycaemic agents on cancer risk in type 2 diabetes mellitus.

AIMS: To analyse the association between cancer incidence and oral diabetes therapy (biguanide, sulphonylurea, thiazolidinedione and meglitinide) in men and women with type 2 diabetes mellitus. METHODS: A retrospective analysis of the electronic health record-based Cleveland Clinic Diabetes Registry (25 613 patients) was cross-indexed with the histology-based tumour registry (48 051 cancer occurrences) over an 8-year period (1998-2006). Multiple imputations were used to account for missing data. Cox regression with propensity scores was used to model time for the development of incident cancer in each of the imputed datasets and the results were pooled. RESULTS: During 51 994 person follow-up years, 892 incident cancer cases were identified; prostate (14.5%) and breast (11.7%) malignancies were most frequent. In women, thiazolidinedione use was associated with a 32% decreased cancer risk compared with sulphonylurea use [hazard ratio (HR) 0.68; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.48-0.97, in the adjusted analysis]. Comparison of insulin secretagogues (sulphonylurea and meglitinide) versus insulin sensitizers (biguanide and thiazolidinedione) demonstrated a 21% decreased cancer risk in insulin sensitizers [HR 0.79 (95% CI 0.64-0.98) in the adjusted analysis]. Oral diabetes therapy showed no significant difference in men. Adjustments were made for age, body mass index (BMI), low-density lipoprotein (LDL), high-density lipoprotein (HDL), triglycerides, coronary heart disease (CHD), diabetes oral monotherapy, race, gender, haemoglobin A1c, statin use, income, insulin use, glomerular filtration rate (GFR), new diabetes status, prior cancer, prior cerebrovascular accident (stroke or transient ischaemic event), systolic/diastolic blood pressure, tobacco use (ever/never) and the propensity score for receiving a biguanide. CONCLUSIONS: Oral insulin sensitizers, particularly thiazolidinedione, are associated with decreased malignancy risk in women with type 2 diabetes mellitus.

The prognostic value of kidney transplant center report cards.

SRTR report cards provide the basis for quality measurement of US transplant centers. There is limited data evaluating the prognostic value of report cards, informing whether they are predictive of prospective patient outcomes. Using national SRTR data, we simulated report cards and calculated standardized mortality ratios (SMR) for kidney transplant centers over five distinct eras. We ranked centers based on SMR and evaluated outcomes for patients transplanted the year following reports. Recipients transplanted at the 50th, 100th and 200th ranked centers had 18% (AHR = 1.18, 1.13-1.22), 38% (AHR = 1.38, 1.28-1.49) and 91% (AHR = 1.91, 1.64-2.21) increased hazard for 1-year mortality relative to recipients at the top-ranked center. Risks were attenuated but remained significant for long-term outcomes. Patients transplanted at centers meeting low-performance criteria in the prior period had 40% (AHR = 1.40, 1.22-1.68) elevated hazard for 1-year mortality in the prospective period. Centers' SMR from the report card was highly predictive (c-statistics > 0.77) for prospective center SMRs and there was significant correlation between centers' SMR from the report card period and the year following (ρ = 0.57, p < 0.001). Although results do not mitigate potential biases of report cards for measuring quality, they do indicate strong prognostic value for future outcomes. Findings also highlight that outcomes are associated with center ranking across a continuum rather than solely at performance margins.

Deriving benefit of early detection from biomarker-based prognostic models.

Many prognostic models for cancer use biomarkers that have utility in early detection. For example, in prostate cancer, models predicting disease-specific survival use serum prostate-specific antigen levels. These models typically show that higher marker levels are associated with poorer prognosis. Consequently, they are often interpreted as indicating that detecting disease at a lower threshold of the biomarker is likely to generate a survival benefit. However, lowering the threshold of the biomarker is tantamount to early detection. For survival benefit to not be simply an artifact of starting the survival clock earlier, we must account for the lead time of early detection. It is not known whether the existing prognostic models imply a survival benefit under early detection once lead time has been accounted for. In this article, we investigate survival benefit implied by prognostic models where the predictor(s) of disease-specific survival are age and/or biomarker level at disease detection. We show that the benefit depends on the rate of biomarker change, the lead time, and the biomarker level at the original date of diagnosis as well as on the parameters of the prognostic model. Even if the prognostic model indicates that lowering the threshold of the biomarker is associated with longer disease-specific survival, this does not necessarily imply that early detection will confer an extension of life expectancy.

Increase in overall mortality risk in patients with type 2 diabetes receiving glipizide, glyburide or glimepiride monotherapy versus metformin: a retrospective analysis.

AIMS: It remains uncertain if differences in mortality risk exist among the sulfonylureas, especially in patients with documented coronary artery disease (CAD). The purpose of this study was to assess the overall mortality risk of the individual sulfonylureas versus metformin in a large cohort of patients with type 2 diabetes. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was conducted using an academic health centre enterprise-wide electronic health record (EHR) system to identify 23 915 patients with type 2 diabetes who initiated monotherapy with metformin (N = 12774), glipizide (N = 4325), glyburide (N = 4279) or glimepiride (N = 2537), ≥ 18 years of age, with and without a history of CAD, and not on insulin or a non-insulin injectable at baseline. The patients were followed for mortality by documentation in the EHR and Social Security Death Index. Multivariable Cox models with propensity analysis were used to compare cohorts. RESULTS: An increase in overall mortality risk was observed in the entire cohort with glipizide (HR 1.64; 95% CI 1.39-1.94), glyburide (HR 1.59; 95% CI 1.35-1.88), and glimepiride (HR 1.68; 95% CI 1.37-2.06) versus metformin; however, in those patients with documented CAD, a statistically significant increase in overall mortality risk was only found with glipizide (HR 1.41; 95% CI 1.07-1.87) and glyburide (HR 1.38; 95% CI 1.04-1.83) versus metformin. CONCLUSIONS: Glipizide, glyburide and glimepiride are associated with an increased risk of overall mortality versus metformin. Our results suggest that if a sulfonylurea is required to obtain glycaemic control, glimepiride may be the preferred sulfonylurea in those with underlying CAD.

The risk of overall mortality in patients with Type 2 diabetes receiving different combinations of sulfonylureas and metformin: a retrospective analysis.

AIMS: Sulfonylureas have been shown to increase mortality when used in combination with metformin. This may not be a class effect of sulfonylureas, but rather secondary to differences in properties inherent to the individual sulfonylureas (hypoglycaemic risk, sulfonylurea receptor selectivity and effects on myocardial ischemic preconditioning). The purpose of this study was to assess the risk of overall mortality in patients with Type 2 diabetes treated with different combinations of sulfonylureas and metformin. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was conducted using an academic health center enterprise-wide electronic health record system to identify 7320 patients with Type 2 diabetes (3768 initiators of glyburide (glibenclamide) and metformin, 2277 initiators of glipizide and metformin and 1275 initiators of glimepiride and metformin), ≥ 18 years of age and not on insulin or a non-insulin injectable at baseline. The patients were followed for mortality by documentation in the electronic health record and Social Security Death Index. Multivariable Cox models with propensity analysis were used to compare cohorts. RESULTS: No statistically significant difference in overall mortality risk was observed among the different combinations of sulfonylureas and metformin: glimepiride and metformin vs. glipizide and metformin (HR 1.03; 95% CI 0.89-1.20), glimepiride and metformin vs. glyburide (glibenclamide) and metformin (HR 1.08; 95% CI 0.90-1.30), or with glipizide and metformin vs. glyburide (glibenclamide) and metformin (HR 1.05; 95% CI 0.95-1.15). CONCLUSIONS: Our results did not identify an increased mortality risk among the different combinations of sulfonylureas and metformin, suggesting that overall mortality is not substantially influenced by the choice of sulfonylurea.

Ki-67 and outcome in clinically localised prostate cancer: analysis of conservatively treated prostate cancer patients from the Trans-Atlantic Prostate Group study.

Treatment decisions after diagnosis of clinically localised prostate cancer are difficult due to variability in tumour behaviour. We therefore examined one of the most promising biomarkers in prostate cancer, Ki-67, in a cohort of 808 patients diagnosed with prostate cancer between 1990 and 1996 and treated conservatively. Ki-67 expression was assessed immunohistochemically, in two laboratories, by two different scoring methods and the results compared with cancer-specific and overall survival. The power of the biomarker was compared with Gleason score and initial serum prostate-specific antigen (PSA). Both methods showed that Ki-67 provided additional prognostic information beyond that available from Gleason score and PSA: for the semi-quantitative method, Deltachi(2) (1 d.f.)=24.6 (P<0.0001), overall survival chi(2)=20.5 (P<0.0001), and for the quantitative method, Deltachi(2) (1 d.f.)=15.1 (P=0.0001), overall survival chi(2)=10.85 (P=0.001). Ki-67 is a powerful biomarker in localised prostate cancer and adds to a model predicting the need for radical or conservative therapy. As it is already in widespread use in routine pathology, it is confirmed as the most promising biomarker to be applied into routine practice.

Nomograms for predicting graft function and survival in living donor kidney transplantation based on the UNOS Registry.

PURPOSE: We developed nomograms that predict transplant renal function at 1 year (Modification of Diet in Renal Disease equation [estimated glomerular filtration rate]) and 5-year graft survival after living donor kidney transplantation. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Data for living donor renal transplants were obtained from the United Network for Organ Sharing registry for 2000 to 2003. Nomograms were designed using linear or Cox regression models to predict 1-year estimated glomerular filtration rate and 5-year graft survival based on pretransplant information including demographic factors, immunosuppressive therapy, immunological factors and organ procurement technique. A third nomogram was constructed to predict 5-year graft survival using additional information available by 6 months after transplantation. These data included delayed graft function, any treated rejection episodes and the 6-month estimated glomerular filtration rate. The nomograms were internally validated using 10-fold cross-validation. RESULTS: The renal function nomogram had an r-square value of 0.13. It worked best when predicting estimated glomerular filtration rate values between 50 and 70 ml per minute per 1.73 m(2). The 5-year graft survival nomograms had a concordance index of 0.71 for the pretransplant nomogram and 0.78 for the 6-month posttransplant nomogram. Calibration was adequate for all nomograms. CONCLUSIONS: Nomograms based on data from the United Network for Organ Sharing registry have been validated to predict the 1-year estimated glomerular filtration rate and 5-year graft survival. These nomograms may facilitate individualized patient care in living donor kidney transplantation.

How accurate are present risk group assignment tools in penile cancer?

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the accuracy of the predictive models available to estimate the risk of lymph node metastases and cancer-specific survival in patients with squamous cell carcinoma of the penis. METHODS: A nonsystematic review of the literature was performed searching MEDLINE in January 2008. RESULTS: Most of the authors select patients for early inguinal lymphadenectomy according to the pathologic extension of the primary tumor and its histologic grade, as recommended by the EAU Guidelines and the Solsona risk groups. Although the Solsona risk groups performed slightly better, both risk groups had low predictive accuracy. A nomogram including eight clinical and pathologic variables (tumor thickness, microscopic growth pattern, Broder's grade, presence of vascular or lymphatic embolization, infiltrations of the corpora cavernosa, corpus spongiosum or urethra, and the clinical stage of groin lymph nodes) was developed to estimate the risk of lymph node involvement at follow-up. Two nomograms are currently available able to estimate the 5-year cancer-specific survival probabilities of the patients. The first nomogram included the clinical lymph node stage and the same pathological variables of the primary tumor at penectomy, while the pathological stage of the lymph nodes replaced the clinical one in the second model. All the 3 nomograms had good prognostic accuracy. CONCLUSIONS: Both the Solsona and EAU risk group assessment had low prognostic accuracy, although the Solsona risk groups performed slightly better. The nomograms designed to predict the risk of lymph node metastases showed and cancer-specific survival had good prognostic accuracy but their external validation is still lacking.

Pitfalls in the diagnosis of prostatic cancer: retrospective review of 1791 cases with clinical outcome.

AIMS: To assess the possible reasons for error in the diagnosis of prostatic cancer with available follow-up data. METHOD AND RESULTS: A cohort of 1791 cases of prostatic cancer diagnosed in the UK between 1990 and 1996 was examined. All cases were clinically localized at presentation, treated by non-curative methods and detailed follow-up was available. A panel of genitourinary pathologists reviewed the pathology of all cases. One hundred and thirty-three (7.5%) of cases were reassigned to a non-malignant diagnosis. Where possible, reasons for the initial diagnosis were given. These included severe atrophy, inflammatory induced atypia, sclerosing adenosis, atypical adenomatous hyperplasia and basal cell hyperplasia. Follow-up of these patients showed an extremely low death rate from prostatic cancer: lower than that for the Gleason combined score of five or less tumours diagnosed in this series. CONCLUSIONS: Many morphological entities potentially mimic prostatic cancer and may be responsible for misdiagnosis in routine specimens. Continuing education in prostatic morphology and immunohistochemistry may have helped reduce this error rate.

Prediction of indolent prostate cancer: validation and updating of a prognostic nomogram.

PURPOSE: Screening with serum prostate specific antigen testing leads to the detection of many prostate cancers early in their natural history. Statistical models have been proposed to predict indolent cancer. We validated and updated model predictions for a screening setting. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We selected 247 patients with clinical stage T1C or T2A from the European Randomized Study on Screening for Prostate Cancer who were treated with radical prostatectomy. We validated a nomogram that had previously been developed in a clinical setting. Predictive characteristics were serum prostate specific antigen, ultrasound prostate volume, clinical stage, prostate biopsy Gleason grade, and total length of cancer and noncancer tissue in biopsy cores. Indolent cancer was defined as pathologically organ confined cancer 0.5 cc or less in volume without poorly differentiated elements. Logistic regression was used to update the previous model and examine the contribution of other potential predictors. RESULTS: Overall 121 of 247 patients (49%) had indolent cancer, while the average predicted probability was around 20% (p <0.001). Effects of individual variables were similar to those found before and discriminative ability was adequate (AUC 0.76). An updated model was constructed, which merely recalibrated the nomogram and did not apply additional predictors. CONCLUSIONS: Prostate cancers identified in a screening setting have a substantially higher likelihood of being indolent than those predicted by a previously proposed nomogram. However, an updated model can support patients and clinicians when the various treatment options for prostate cancer are considered.

Defining high risk prostate cancer with risk groups and nomograms: implications for designing clinical trials.

PURPOSE: Death from prostate cancer is usually preceded by metastases and it usually occurs in men with high risk disease who experienced biochemical failure with a short prostate specific antigen doubling time. We developed a model for determining disease specific survival in prostate cancer. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We used the model for defining high risk prostate cancer that was developed by the Radiation Therapy Oncology Group and combined it with the Kattan nomogram for predicting the risk of metastases. We selected 414 Radiation Therapy Oncology Group intermediate and high risk patients who were treated with external beam radiotherapy alone. Excluded were patients with low risk disease. The Kaplan-Meier product limit method was used to estimate the probability of freedom from biochemical failure, overall survival and disease specific survival. RESULTS: A significant difference was observed in freedom from biochemical failure, disease specific survival and overall survival among the 3 tertiles created by the nomogram using the cutoff points less than 8.5%, 8.5% to 15% and greater than 15% (p <0.001, 0.0002 and 0.0003, respectively). Only the risk of metastases using the categorized nomogram score (less than 8.5% and 8.5% to 15% vs greater than 15%), not preradiotherapy prostate specific antigen or Radiation Therapy Oncology Group risk (Radiation Therapy Oncology Group 2 vs 3), was a significant predictor of disease specific and overall survival for intermediate/high risk patients and intermediate/high risk with 15% or less risk for metastases. CONCLUSIONS: We combined a risk group stratification scheme for disease specific survival with a nomogram predicting the risk of metastases and created a model that may be useful for designing phase III trials with metastases and disease specific survival as study end points.

Long-term outcome among men with conservatively treated localised prostate cancer.

Optimal management of clinically localised prostate cancer presents unique challenges, because of its highly variable and often indolent natural history. There is an urgent need to predict more accurately its natural history, in order to avoid unnecessary treatment. Medical records of men diagnosed with clinically localised prostate cancer, in the UK, between 1990 and 1996 were reviewed to identify those who were conservatively treated, under age 76 years at the time of pathological diagnosis and had a baseline prostate-specific antigen (PSA) measurement. Diagnostic biopsy specimens were centrally reviewed to assign primary and secondary Gleason grades. The primary end point was death from prostate cancer and multivariate models were constructed to determine its best predictors. A total of 2333 eligible patients were identified. The most important prognostic factors were Gleason score and baseline PSA level. These factors were largely independent and together, contributed substantially more predictive power than either one alone. Clinical stage and extent of disease determined, either from needle biopsy or transurethral resection of the prostate (TURP) chips, provided some additional prognostic information. In conclusion, a model using Gleason score and PSA level identified three subgroups comprising 17, 50, and 33% of the cohort with a 10-year prostate cancer specific mortality of <10, 10-30, and >30%, respectively. This classification is a substantial improvement on previous ones using only Gleason score, but better markers are needed to predict survival more accurately in the intermediate group of patients.

Management of prostate-specific antigen relapse in prostate cancer: a European Consensus.

A European Consensus on the management of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) relapse in patients with prostate cancer has been formulated. The key recommendations proposed are that total PSA is the best detection tool for prostate cancer, with free and complexed PSA having a role in the PSA range 1-4 ng/ml. PSA relapse after radical prostatectomy (RP) has been defined as a value of 0.2 ng/ml with one subsequent rise, while the ASTRO definition should be used after radiotherapy. A PSA level of less than 0.4 ng/ml after hormonal therapy can be considered an indicator of a positive response. Continuous assessment using nomograms or artificial neural networks will help to determine whether progression after local therapy is distant or local, which is the basis for treatment decisions. Secondary treatment after local failure of RP should be initiated when PSA levels reach 1.0-1.5 ng/ml and salvage radiotherapy can be considered with or without hormonal therapy. Local failure after radiotherapy can be treated with a choice of high-intensity-focused ultrasound, salvage RP (only in highly selected patients), cryotherapy or external beam radiation. Treatment of distant failure involves hormonal manipulation, the type and the timing of which is based on both physician and patient preferences.