Coral persistence despite marginal conditions in the Port of Miami.

Coral cover has declined worldwide due to anthropogenic stressors that manifest on both global and local scales. Coral communities that exist in extreme conditions can provide information on how these stressors influence ecosystem structure, with implications for their persistence under future conditions. The Port of Miami is located within an urbanized environment, with active coastal development, as well as commercial shipping and recreational boating activity. Monitoring of sites throughout the Port since 2018 has revealed periodic extremes in temperature, seawater pH, and salinity, far in excess of what have been measured in most coral reef environments. Despite conditions that would kill many reef species, we have documented diverse coral communities growing on artificial substrates at these sites-reflecting remarkable tolerance to environmental stressors. Furthermore, many of the more prevalent species within these communities are now conspicuously absent or in low abundance on nearby reefs, owing to their susceptibility and exposure to stony coral tissue loss disease. Natural reef frameworks, however, are largely absent at the urban sites and while diverse fish communities are documented, it is unlikely that these communities provide the same goods and services as natural reef habitats. Regardless, the existence of these communities indicates unlikely persistence and highlights the potential for coexistence of threatened species in anthropogenic environments, provided that suitable stewardship strategies are in place.

Relationships between blooms of Karenia brevis and hypoxia across the West Florida Shelf.

Harmful algal blooms (HABs) caused by the dinoflagellate Karenia brevis on the West Florida Shelf have become a nearly annual occurrence causing widespread ecological and economic harm. Effects range from minor respiratory irritation and localized fish kills to large-scale and long-term events causing massive mortalities to marine organisms. Reports of hypoxia on the shelf have been infrequent; however, there have been some indications that some HABs have been associated with localized hypoxia. We examined oceanographic data from 2004 to 2019 across the West Florida Shelf to determine the frequency of hypoxia and to assess its association with known HABs. Hypoxia was present in 5 of the 16 years examined and was always found shoreward of the 50-meter bathymetry line. There were 2 clusters of recurrent hypoxia: midshelf off the Big Bend coast and near the southwest Florida coast. We identified 3 hypoxic events that were characterized by multiple conductivity, temperature, and depth (CTD) casts and occurred concurrently with extreme HABs in 2005, 2014, and 2018. These HAB-hypoxia events occurred when K. brevis blooms initiated in early summer months and persisted into the fall likely driven by increased biological oxygen demand from decaying algal biomass and reduced water column ventilation due to stratification. There were also four years, 2011, 2013, 2015, and 2017, with low dissolved oxygen located near the shelf break that were likely associated with upwelling of deeper Gulf of Mexico water onto the shelf. We had difficulty in assessing the spatiotemporal extent of these events due to limited data availability and potentially unobserved hypoxia due to the inconsistent difference between the bottom of the CTD cast and the seafloor. While we cannot unequivocally explain the association between extreme HABs and hypoxia on the West Florida Shelf, there is sufficient evidence to suggest a causal linkage between them.

Spatial variability of microzooplankton grazing on phytoplankton in coastal southern Florida, USA.

Microzooplankton are considered the primary consumers of phytoplankton in marine environments. Microzooplankton grazing rates on phytoplankton have been studied across the globe, but there are still large regions of the ocean that are understudied, such as sub-tropical coastal oceans. One of these regions is the coastal area around south Florida, USA. We measured microzooplankton grazing rates in two distinct environments around south Florida; the oligotrophic Florida Keys and the mesotrophic outflow from the Everglades. For 2-years from January 2018 to January 2020, we set up 55 dilution and light-dark bottle experiments at five stations to estimate the microzooplankton community grazing rate, instantaneous phytoplankton growth rate, and primary production. Our results suggest that microzooplankton are consuming a higher proportion of the primary production near the Everglades outflow compared to the Florida Keys. We also found that changes in phytoplankton growth rates are disconnected from changes in the microzooplankton grazing rates in the Florida Keys. Overall, the data from the Everglades outflow is what would be expected based on global patterns, but factors other than microzooplankton grazing are more important in controlling phytoplankton biomass in the Florida Keys.

Assessing eukaryotic biodiversity in the Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary through environmental DNA metabarcoding.

Environmental DNA (eDNA) is the DNA suspended in the environment (e.g., water column), which includes cells, gametes, and other material derived from but not limited to shedding of tissue, scales, mucus, and fecal matter. Amplifying and sequencing marker genes (i.e., metabarcoding) from eDNA can reveal the wide range of taxa present in an ecosystem through analysis of a single water sample. Metabarcoding of eDNA provides higher resolution data than visual surveys, aiding in assessments of ecosystem health. This study conducted eDNA metabarcoding of two molecular markers (cytochrome c oxidase I (COI) and 18S ribosomal RNA (rRNA) genes) to survey eukaryotic diversity across multiple trophic levels in surface water samples collected at three sites along the coral reef tract within the Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary (FKNMS) during four research cruises in 2015. The 18S rRNA gene sequences recovered 785 genera while the COI gene sequences recovered 115 genera, with only 33 genera shared between the two datasets, emphasizing the complementarity of these marker genes. Community composition for both genetic markers clustered by month of sample collection, suggesting that temporal variation has a larger effect on biodiversity than spatial variability in the FKNMS surface waters. Sequences from both marker genes were dominated by copepods, but each marker recovered distinct phytoplankton groups, with 18S rRNA gene sequences dominated by dinoflagellates and COI sequences dominated by coccolithophores. Although eDNA samples were collected from surface waters, many benthic species such as sponges, crustaceans, and corals were identified. These results show the utility of eDNA metabarcoding for cataloging biodiversity to establish an ecosystem baseline against which future samples can be compared in order to monitor community changes.

Predicting ecosystem components in the Gulf of Mexico and their responses to climate variability with a dynamic Bayesian network model.

The Gulf of Mexico is an ecologically and economically important marine ecosystem that is affected by a variety of natural and anthropogenic pressures. These complex and interacting pressures, together with the dynamic environment of the Gulf, present challenges for the effective management of its resources. The recent adoption of Bayesian networks to ecology allows for the discovery and quantification of complex interactions from data after making only a few assumptions about observations of the system. In this study, we apply Bayesian network models, with different levels of structural complexity and a varying number of hidden variables to account for uncertainty when modeling ecosystem dynamics. From these models, we predict focal ecosystem components within the Gulf of Mexico. The predictive ability of the models varied with their structure. The model that performed best was parameterized through data-driven learning techniques and accounted for multiple ecosystem components' associations and their interactions with human and natural pressures over time. Then, we altered sea surface temperature in the best performing model to explore the response of different ecosystem components to increased temperature. The magnitude and even direction of predicted responses varied by ecosystem components due to heterogeneity in driving factors and their spatial overlap. Our findings suggest that due to varying components' sensitivity to drivers, changes in temperature will potentially lead to trade-offs in terms of population productivity. We were able to discover meaningful interactions between ecosystem components and their environment and show how sensitive these relationships are to climate perturbations, which increases our understanding of the potential future response of the system to increasing temperature. Our findings demonstrate that accounting for additional sources of variation, by incorporating multiple interactions and pressures in the model layout, has the potential for gaining deeper insights into the structure and dynamics of ecosystems.

A Conceptual Model to Assess Stress-Associated Health Effects of Multiple Ecosystem Services Degraded by Disaster Events in the Gulf of Mexico and Elsewhere.

Few conceptual frameworks attempt to connect disaster-associated environmental injuries to impacts on ecosystem services (the benefits humans derive from nature) and thence to both psychological and physiological human health effects. To our knowledge, this study is one of the first, if not the first, to develop a detailed conceptual model of how degraded ecosystem services affect cumulative stress impacts on the health of individual humans and communities. Our comprehensive Disaster-Pressure State-Ecosystem Services-Response-Health (DPSERH) model demonstrates that oil spills, hurricanes, and other disasters can change key ecosystem components resulting in reductions in individual and multiple ecosystem services that support people's livelihoods, health, and way of life. Further, the model elucidates how damage to ecosystem services produces acute, chronic, and cumulative stress in humans which increases risk of adverse psychological and physiological health outcomes. While developed and initially applied within the context of the Gulf of Mexico, it should work equally well in other geographies and for many disasters that cause impairment of ecosystem services. Use of this new tool will improve planning for responses to future disasters and help society more fully account for the costs and benefits of potential management responses. The model also can be used to help direct investments in improving response capabilities of the public health community, biomedical researchers, and environmental scientists. Finally, the model illustrates why the broad range of potential human health effects of disasters should receive equal attention to that accorded environmental damages in assessing restoration and recovery costs and time frames.

Evidence of climate-driven ecosystem reorganization in the Gulf of Mexico.

The Gulf of Mexico is one of the most ecologically and economically valuable marine ecosystems in the world and is affected by a variety of natural and anthropogenic phenomena including climate, hurricanes, coastal development, agricultural runoff, oil spills, and fishing. These complex and interacting stressors, together with the highly dynamic nature of this ecosystem, present challenges for the effective management of its resources. We analyze a compilation of over 100 indicators representing physical, biological, and economic aspects of the Gulf of Mexico and find that an ecosystem-wide reorganization occurred in the mid-1990s. Further analysis of fishery landings composition data indicates a major shift in the late 1970s coincident with the advent of US national fisheries management policy, as well as significant shifts in the mid-1960s and the mid-1990s. These latter shifts are aligned temporally with changes in a major climate mode in the Atlantic Ocean: the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). We provide an explanation for how the AMO may drive physical changes in the Gulf of Mexico, thus altering higher-level ecosystem dynamics. The hypotheses presented here should provide focus for further targeted studies, particularly in regard to whether and how management should adjust to different climate regimes or states of nature. Our study highlights the challenges in understanding the effects of climatic drivers against a background of multiple anthropogenic pressures, particularly in a system where these forces interact in complex and nonlinear ways.

Quantifying Florida Bay habitat suitability for fishes and invertebrates under climate change scenarios.

The Florida Bay ecosystem supports a number of economically important ecosystem services, including several recreational fisheries, which may be affected by changing salinity and temperature due to climate change. In this paper, we use a combination of physical models and habitat suitability index models to quantify the effects of potential climate change scenarios on a variety of juvenile fish and lobster species in Florida Bay. The climate scenarios include alterations in sea level, evaporation and precipitation rates, coastal runoff, and water temperature. We find that the changes in habitat suitability vary in both magnitude and direction across the scenarios and species, but are on average small. Only one of the seven species we investigate (Lagodon rhomboides, i.e., pinfish) sees a sizable decrease in optimal habitat under any of the scenarios. This suggests that the estuarine fauna of Florida Bay may not be as vulnerable to climate change as other components of the ecosystem, such as those in the marine/terrestrial ecotone. However, these models are relatively simplistic, looking only at single species effects of physical drivers without considering the many interspecific interactions that may play a key role in the adjustment of the ecosystem as a whole. More complex models that capture the mechanistic links between physics and biology, as well as the complex dynamics of the estuarine food web, may be necessary to further understand the potential effects of climate change on the Florida Bay ecosystem.

Submersible optical sensors exposed to chemically dispersed crude oil: wave tank simulations for improved oil spill monitoring.

In situ fluorometers were deployed during the Deepwater Horizon (DWH) Gulf of Mexico oil spill to track the subsea oil plume. Uncertainties regarding instrument specifications and capabilities necessitated performance testing of sensors exposed to simulated, dispersed oil plumes. Dynamic ranges of the Chelsea Technologies Group AQUAtracka, Turner Designs Cyclops, Satlantic SUNA and WET Labs, Inc. ECO, exposed to fresh and artificially weathered crude oil, were determined. Sensors were standardized against known oil volumes and total petroleum hydrocarbons and benzene-toluene-ethylbenzene-xylene measurements-both collected during spills, providing oil estimates during wave tank dilution experiments. All sensors estimated oil concentrations down to 300 ppb oil, refuting previous reports. Sensor performance results assist interpretation of DWH oil spill data and formulating future protocols.

The EBM-DPSER conceptual model: integrating ecosystem services into the DPSIR framework.

There is a pressing need to integrate biophysical and human dimensions science to better inform holistic ecosystem management supporting the transition from single species or single-sector management to multi-sector ecosystem-based management. Ecosystem-based management should focus upon ecosystem services, since they reflect societal goals, values, desires, and benefits. The inclusion of ecosystem services into holistic management strategies improves management by better capturing the diversity of positive and negative human-natural interactions and making explicit the benefits to society. To facilitate this inclusion, we propose a conceptual model that merges the broadly applied Driver, Pressure, State, Impact, and Response (DPSIR) conceptual model with ecosystem services yielding a Driver, Pressure, State, Ecosystem service, and Response (EBM-DPSER) conceptual model. The impact module in traditional DPSIR models focuses attention upon negative anthropomorphic impacts on the ecosystem; by replacing impacts with ecosystem services the EBM-DPSER model incorporates not only negative, but also positive changes in the ecosystem. Responses occur as a result of changes in ecosystem services and include inter alia management actions directed at proactively altering human population or individual behavior and infrastructure to meet societal goals. The EBM-DPSER conceptual model was applied to the Florida Keys and Dry Tortugas marine ecosystem as a case study to illustrate how it can inform management decisions. This case study captures our system-level understanding and results in a more holistic representation of ecosystem and human society interactions, thus improving our ability to identify trade-offs. The EBM-DPSER model should be a useful operational tool for implementing EBM, in that it fully integrates our knowledge of all ecosystem components while focusing management attention upon those aspects of the ecosystem most important to human society and does so within a framework already familiar to resource managers.