A Bayesian model calibration framework for stochastic compartmental models with both time-varying and time-invariant parameters.

We consider state and parameter estimation for compartmental models having both time-varying and time-invariant parameters. In this manuscript, we first detail a general Bayesian computational framework as a continuation of our previous work. Subsequently, this framework is specifically tailored to the susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR) model which describes a basic mechanism for the spread of infectious diseases through a system of coupled nonlinear differential equations. The SIR model consists of three states, namely, the susceptible, infectious, and removed compartments. The coupling among these states is controlled by two parameters, the infection rate and the recovery rate. The simplicity of the SIR model and similar compartmental models make them applicable to many classes of infectious diseases. However, the combined assumption of a deterministic model and time-invariance among the model parameters are two significant impediments which critically limit their use for long-term predictions. The tendency of certain model parameters to vary in time due to seasonal trends, non-pharmaceutical interventions, and other random effects necessitates a model that structurally permits the incorporation of such time-varying effects. Complementary to this, is the need for a robust mechanism for the estimation of the parameters of the resulting model from data. To this end, we consider an augmented state vector, which appends the time-varying parameters to the original system states whereby the time evolution of the time-varying parameters are driven by an artificial noise process in a standard manner. Distinguishing between time-varying and time-invariant parameters in this fashion limits the introduction of artificial dynamics into the system, and provides a robust, fully Bayesian approach for estimating the time-invariant system parameters as well as the elements of the process noise covariance matrix. This computational framework is implemented by leveraging the robustness of the Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm permits the estimation of time-invariant parameters while nested nonlinear filters concurrently perform the joint estimation of the system states and time-varying parameters. We demonstrate performance of the framework by first considering a series of examples using synthetic data, followed by an exposition on public health data collected in the province of Ontario.

Longer-term impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on obstructive sleep apnoea (OSA)-related healthcare: a province-based study.

RATIONALE: Following marked reductions in sleep medicine care early in the COVID-19 pandemic, there is limited information about the recovery of these services. We explored long-term trends in obstructive sleep apnoea (OSA) health services and service backlogs during the pandemic compared with pre-pandemic levels in Ontario (the most populous province of Canada). METHODS: In this retrospective population-based study using Ontario (Canada) health administrative data on adults, we compared rates of polysomnograms (PSGs), outpatient visits and positive airway pressure (PAP) therapy purchase claims during the pandemic (March 2020 to December 2022) to pre-pandemic rates (2015-2019). We calculated projected rates using monthly seasonal time series auto-regressive integrated moving-average models based on similar periods in previous years. Service backlogs were estimated from the difference between projected and observed rates. RESULTS: Compared with historical data, all service rates decreased at first during March to May 2020 and subsequently increased. By December 2022, observed service rates per 100 000 persons remained lower than projected for PSGs (September to December 2022: 113 vs 141, 95% CI: 121 to 163) and PAP claims (September to December 2022: 50 vs 60, 95% CI: 51 to 70), and returned to projected for outpatient OSA visits. By December 2022, the service backlog was 193 078 PSGs (95% CI: 139 294 to 253 075) and 57 321 PAP claims (95% CI: 27 703 to 86 938). CONCLUSION: As of December 2022, there was a sustained reduction in OSA-related health services in Ontario, Canada. The resulting service backlog has likely worsened existing problems with underdiagnosis and undertreatment of OSA and supports the adoption of flexible care delivery models for OSA that include portable technologies.

Association between a Recalled Positive Airway Pressure (PAP) Device and Incident Cancer: A Population-Based Study.

BACKGROUND: The real-world consequences of a Philips/Respironics recall for positive airway pressure (PAP) devices distributed between 2009 and 2021 are unknown. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective population-based study using health administrative databases (Ontario, Canada) on all new adult PAP users identified through the provincial funding system, free of cancer at baseline, who initiated (claimed) PAP treatment between 2012 and 2018. Everyone was followed from the PAP claim date to the earliest of incident cancer diagnosis, death, or the end of the follow-up (March 2022). We used inverse probability of treatment weighting to balance baseline characteristics between individuals on recalled devices and those on devices from other manufacturers. Weighted hazard ratios of incident cancer were compared between groups. RESULTS: Of 231 692 individuals identified, 58 204 (25.1%) claimed recalled devices, and 173 488 (74.9%) from other manufacturers. A meaningful baseline difference between groups (standardised difference≥0.10) was noted only by location-relevant covariates; other variables were mostly equally distributed (standardised differences≤0.06). Over a median follow-up of 6.3 years (IQR: 4.9-8.0), 11 166 (4.8%) developed cancer: unadjusted rates per 10 000 Person-Year (95 CI%) of 78.8 (76.0-81.7) in the recall group versus74.0 (72.4-75.6) in others (p=0.0034). Propensity score weighting achieved excellent balance in baseline characteristics between groups (standardised differences≤0.07). On a weighted sample, there was no statistical difference in the hazard of incident cancer between groups: cause-specific hazard ratio (recalled versus others) of 0.97, 95% CI: 0.89-1.06. CONCLUSION: In our real-world population study, compared to other manufacturers and adjusting for confounders, recalled devices do not appear to be independently associated with developing cancer.

Uptake and cardiac events of COVID-19 vaccinations among Canadian youth and young adults.

Few studies have examined population-level data of the COVID-19 original and bivalent vaccine on its uptake and potential side effects. We used population-based health administrative data from Jan 2021-Feb 2023 to identify Ontario residents aged 12-35 years old to calculate their rates of COVID-19 vaccine uptake and vaccine-related cardiac events (myocarditis and pericarditis). Multivariable Cox, logistic, and negative binomial regression analyses were used to adjust for covariates. Hazard ratios (HR) were reported with 95% confidence intervals (CI). The study population included 5,012,721 individuals. Comparing to the general population, those with chronic diseases were associated with 13-37% higher rates of vaccine uptake and 1.39-2.27 times higher odds of receiving booster doses. Overall, post-vaccination cardiac event incidence rates ranged from 3-12 per 100,000 persons. Compared to the general population, the incidence rate of cardiac events among those with asthma and allergic diseases was significantly higher, 3.7 events per 100,000 persons. Compared to the general population, those with asthma and/or allergic diseases had significantly higher associated likelihoods of a cardiac event (HR = 1.31, 95% CI: 1.08-1.57). Females, adults, and those with prior COVID-19 infections had decreased odds of cardiac events after 2nd vaccine doses. No significant differences in post-vaccine cardiac events were detected between original and bivalent doses. This Canadian population-based study reported substantially higher rates of vaccine uptake and a very rare incidence of temporally associated post-vaccination cardiac events. While substantially smaller than the benefits of vaccination, our results indicated a continued small risk of cardiac side effects from bivalent COVID-19 vaccines in individuals with comorbidities.

Mode of delivery and birth outcomes before and during COVID-19 -A population-based study in Ontario, Canada.

There is lack of clarity on whether pregnancies during COVID-19 resulted in poorer mode of delivery and birth outcomes in Ontario, Canada. We aimed to compare mode of delivery (C-section), birth (low birthweight, preterm birth, NICU admission), and health services use (HSU, hospitalizations, ED visits, physician visits) outcomes in pregnant Ontario women before and during COVID-19 (pandemic periods). We further stratified for pre-existing chronic diseases (asthma, eczema, allergic rhinitis, diabetes, hypertension). Deliveries before (Jun 2018-Feb 2020) and during (Jul 2020-Mar 2022) pandemic were from health administrative data. We used multivariable logistic regression analyses to estimate adjusted odds ratios (aOR) of delivery and birth outcomes, and negative binomial regression for adjusted rate ratios (aRR) of HSU. We compared outcomes between pre-pandemic and pandemic periods. Possible interactions between study periods and covariates were also examined. 323,359 deliveries were included (50% during pandemic). One in 5 (18.3%) women who delivered during the pandemic had not received any COVID-19 vaccine, while one in 20 women (5.2%) lab-tested positive for COVID-19. The odds of C-section delivery during the pandemic was 9% higher (aOR = 1.09, 95% CI: 1.08-1.11) than pre-pandemic. The odds of preterm birth and NICU admission were 15% (aOR = 0.85, 95% CI: 0.82-0.87) and 10% lower (aOR = 0.90, 95% CI: 0.88-0.92), respectively, during COVID-19. There was a 17% reduction in ED visits but a 16% increase in physician visits during the pandemic (aRR = 0.83, 95% CI: 0.81-0.84 and aRR = 1.16, 95% CI: 1.16-1.17, respectively). These aORs and aRRs were significantly higher in women with pre-existing chronic conditions. During the pandemic, healthcare utilization, especially ED visits (aRR = 0.83), in pregnant women was lower compared to before. Ensuring ongoing prenatal care during the pandemic may reduce risks of adverse mode of delivery and the need for acute care during pregnancy.

Obstructive Sleep Apnea and Mental Health Disorders in the Pediatric Population: A Retrospective, Population-based Cohort Study.

Rationale: Information is limited about the association between obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) and mental health disorders in children. Objectives: In children, 1) to evaluate the association between OSA and new mental healthcare encounters; and 2) to compare mental healthcare encounters 2 years after to 2 years before OSA treatment initiation. Methods: We conducted a retrospective longitudinal cohort study using Ontario health administrative data (Canada). Children (0-18 yr) who underwent diagnostic polysomnography (PSG) 2009-2016 and met criteria for definition of moderate-severe OSA (PSG-OSA) were propensity score weighted by baseline characteristics and compared with children who underwent PSG in the same period but did not meet the OSA definition (PSG-No-OSA). Children were followed until March 2021. Weighted cause-specific Cox proportional hazards and modified Poisson regression models were used to compare time from PSG to first mental healthcare encounter and frequency of new mental healthcare encounters per person time, respectively. Among those who underwent adenotonsillectomy (AT) or were prescribed and claimed positive airway pressure therapy (PAP), we used age-adjusted conditional logistic regression models to compare 2 years post-treatment to pretreatment odds of mental healthcare encounters. Results: Of 32,791 children analyzed, 7,724 (23.6%) children met criteria for moderate-severe OSA. In the PSG-OSA group, 7,080 (91.7%) were treated (AT or PAP). Compared with PSG-No-OSA, the PSG-OSA group had a shorter time from PSG to first mental healthcare encounter (hazard ratio, 1.08; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.05-1.12) but less frequent mental healthcare encounters in follow-up (rate ratio, 0.92; 95% CI, 0.87-0.97). OSA treatment (AT or PAP) was associated with lower odds of mental healthcare encounters 2 years after treatment initiation compared with 2 years before (odds ratio, 0.69; 95% CI, 0.65-0.74). Conclusions: In this large, population-based study of children who underwent PSG for sleep disorder assessment, OSA diagnosis/treatment was associated with an improvement in some mental health indicators, such as fewer new mental healthcare encounters compared with no OSA and lower odds of mental healthcare encounters compared with before OSA treatment.

Obstructive sleep apnea severity, circulating biomarkers, and cancer risk.

STUDY OBJECTIVES: To determine whether obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) severity and/or biomarkers of inflammation/angiogenesis are associated with incident cancer in this clinical cohort. METHODS: Consenting adult patients at the University of British Columbia Hospital between 2003 and 2014 completed a questionnaire about their medical history and sleep habits prior to undergoing a polysomnogram. Blood samples were collected the morning after polysomnography and processed for biomarkers of inflammation and angiogenesis. The clinical, polysomnography, and biomarker data were linked to the British Columbia Cancer Registry to ascertain incident cancer diagnoses. Cox proportional hazard regression was used to assess the association between OSA severity and biomarker concentrations with cancer risk. RESULTS: A total of 1,990 patients were included in the analysis with a mean follow-up time of 12.8 years; 181 of them (9.1%) developed cancer after polysomnography. OSA severity was significantly associated with cancer risk after controlling for relevant covariates (hazard ratio = 1.08 per 10 events/h apnea-hypopnea index increase, confidence interval = 1.02-1.15, P = .015). In an exploratory analysis, 2 biomarkers were significantly associated with an increased cancer risk after controlling for relevant covariates (hazard ratio per interquartile range pg/mL increase of endostatin = 1.45, confidence interval = 1.12-1.87, P = .01 and hazard ratio for interquartile range pg/mL increase of vascular cell adhesion molecule-1 = 1.48, confidence interval = 1.04-2.11, P = .03, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: OSA severity was an independent risk factor for cancer. Furthermore, 2 circulating markers were significantly associated with cancer risk. If these preliminary findings can be reproduced in other cohorts, biomarkers could potentially be used to prognosticate patients with OSA with respect to cancer risk. CITATION: Hirsch Allen AJ, Kendzerska T, Bhatti P, et al. Obstructive sleep apnea severity, circulating biomarkers, and cancer risk. J Clin Sleep Med. 2024;20(9):1415-1422.

Air pollution, weather and positive airway pressure treatment adherence in adults with sleep apnea: a retrospective community-based repeated-measures longitudinal study.

We assessed the relation between air pollution, weather, and adherence to positive airway pressure (PAP) therapy in a retrospective community-based repeated-measures study of adults with obstructive sleep apnea who purchased PAP devices from a registered provider between 2013 and 2017 (Ottawa, Ontario, Canada) and had at least one day of data. Daily PAP-derived data, air pollution, and weather databases were linked using postal code. The exposures were mean nocturnal (8:00 p.m. to 8:00 a.m.) (i) residential concentrations of nitrogen dioxide (NO2 ), fine particulate matter <=2.5 µm (PM2.5 ), ozone (O3 ), and Air Quality Health Index (AQHI), and (ii) temperature, relative humidity, and barometric pressure. Covariates in the main model were demographics, season, exposure year, and PAP therapy mode. We analysed 8148 adults (median age of 54 years and 61% men) and 2,071,588 days of data. Based on daily data, the median (interquartile range) daily PAP usage was 416 (323-487) min. Using mixed-effect regression analyses to incorporate daily data and clustering by individuals, we found a statistically significant decrease in adherence for increased levels of NO2 , PM2.5 , and AQHI. The largest effect was for NO2 : a decrease in daily PAP use while comparing the highest versus lowest quartiles (Qs) was 3.4 (95% confidence interval [CI] 2.8-3.9) min. Decreased PAP adherence was also associated with increased temperature (Q4 versus Q1: 2.6 [95% CI: 1.5-3.7] min) and decreased barometric pressure (Q1 versus Q4: 2.0 [95% CI 1.5-2.5] min). We observed modest but statistically significant acute effects of air pollution and weather on daily PAP adherence.

The relationship between the morningness-eveningness questionnaire and incident cancer: A historical clinical cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: We conducted a retrospective cohort study to explore the relationship between chronotype measured by the total Morningness-Eveningness Questionnaire (MEQ) score and incident cancer. METHODS: We used clinical and provincial health administrative data on consecutive adults who underwent a Level 1 Polysomnography (PSG) and completed the MEQ between 2010 and 2015 in an academic hospital (Ontario, Canada) and were cancer-free at baseline. Cancer status was derived from the Ontario Cancer Registry. Individuals were followed until death or March 31, 2020. We used multivariable Cox cause-specific regressions to address the research objective. RESULTS: Of 3,004 individuals, 1,781 were analyzed: a median age of 54 years (IQR: 40-64) and 838 (47.1%) men. The median total MEQ score was 63 (IQR: 55-69); 61 (3.4%) were classified as evening (≤41), 536 (30.1%) as intermediate (42-58), and 1,184 (66.5%) as morning chronotypes (≥59). Over a median of 7 years (IQR: 5-8), 120 (6.7%) developed cancer. A U-shape relationship was found between the total MEQ score and an increased hazard of incident cancer, controlling for PSG measures of sleep apnea severity and sleep architecture, demographics, and comorbidities. Compared to the median of 63.0, a total MEQ score greater or less than the median was associated with an increased hazard of incident cancer, with the largest effect for those with a total score ≥76 (e.g., HR of a MEQ total score of 78 vs. 63: 2.01, 95% CI: 1.09-3.71). CONCLUSION: The U-shaped curve may reflect deviations from a standard circadian tendency, which may stress biological systems and influence malignancy risk.

Resource Use and Costs of Indwelling Pleural Catheters versus Pleurodesis for Malignant Pleural Effusions: A Population-based Study.

Rationale: Malignant pleural effusions (MPEs) are associated with significant health service use and healthcare costs, but the current evidence is limited. Objectives: To compare 12-month post-procedure: 1) health service utilization; and 2) healthcare costs after indwelling pleural catheter (IPC) insertion with at-home drainage performed by home care nursing services, versus in-hospital chemical pleurodesis. Methods: We performed a retrospective population-based study on a cohort of adults with MPEs who underwent IPC insertion or chemical pleurodesis between January 1, 2015 and December 31, 2019 using provincial health administrative data (Ontario, Canada). Patients were followed from the procedure date until death or until 12 months after the procedure. Inverse probability of treatment weighting was performed to adjust for imbalances in baseline characteristics. Differences in length of stay, readmissions, emergency department visits, home care visits, and healthcare costs were estimated using weighted regression analysis. Results: Of 5,752 included individuals, 4,432 (77%) underwent IPC insertion and 1,320 (23%) had pleurodesis. In the weighted sample, individuals who received an IPC had fewer inpatient days (12.4 d vs. 16 d; standardized mean difference, 0.229) but a higher proportion of subsequent admissions for empyema (2.7% vs. 1.1%; P = 0.0002) than those undergoing pleurodesis. Individuals with IPCs received more hours of nursing home care (41 h vs. 21.1 h; standardized mean difference, 0.671) but overall had lower average healthcare costs ($40,179 vs. $46,640 per patient; standardized mean difference, 0.177) than those receiving pleurodesis. Conclusions: IPCs with home nursing drainage are associated with reduced health resource use compared with pleurodesis in adults with MPEs, even after controlling for important baseline and clinical characteristics. Given that both procedures have similar health outcomes, our findings support the ongoing promotion of IPCs to increase outpatient management of patients with MPEs.

All Obstructive Sleep Apnea Events Are Not Created Equal: The Relationship between Event-related Hypoxemia and Physiologic Response.

Rationale: Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) severity is typically assessed by the apnea-hypopnea index (AHI), a frequency-based metric that allocates equal weight to all respiratory events. However, more severe events may have a greater physiologic impact. Objectives: The purpose of this study was to determine whether the degree of event-related hypoxemia would be associated with the postevent physiologic response. Methods: Patients with OSA (AHI, ⩾5/h) from the multicenter Canadian Sleep and Circadian Network cohort were studied. Using mixed-effect linear regression, we examined associations between event-related hypoxic burden (HBev) assessed by the area under the event-related oxygen saturation recording with heart rate changes (ΔHRev), vasoconstriction (vasoconstriction burden [VCBev] assessed with photoplethysmography), and electroencephalographic responses (power ratio before and after events). Results: Polysomnographic recordings from 658 patients (median [interquartile range] age, 55.00 [45.00, 64.00] yr; AHI, 27.15 [14.90, 64.05] events/h; 42% female) were included in the analyses. HBev was associated with an increase in all physiologic responses after controlling for age, sex, body mass index, sleep stage, total sleep time, and study centers; for example, 1 standard deviation increase in HBev was associated with 0.21 [95% confidence interval, 0.2, 0.22], 0.08 [0.08, 0.09], and 0.22 [0.21, 0.23] standard deviation increases in ΔHRev, VCBev, and ß-power ratio, respectively. Conclusions: Increased event-related hypoxic burden was associated with greater responses across a broad range of physiologic signals. Future metrics that incorporate information about the variability of these physiologic responses may have promise in providing a more nuanced assessment of OSA severity.

Obstructive sleep apnea in those with idiopathic intracranial hypertension undergoing diagnostic in-laboratory polysomnography.

RATIONALE: The association of obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) with idiopathic intracranial hypertension (IIH) remains unclear, and few studies have used objective in-laboratory polysomnography (PSG) data. Thus, we used PSG data to examine the: 1) association between OSA, and its severity, with IIH and 2) sex differences in OSA severity in those with and without IIH. METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed diagnostic PSG data from January 2015 to August 2023 for patients who were diagnosed with IIH by a neuro-ophthalmologist using the modified Dandy criteria. We selected three age, sex, and body mass index (BMI) matched controls for each IIH patient. We examined potential associations of IIH with OSA using regression. Sex differences were analyzed using ANOVA. RESULTS: Of 3482 patients who underwent PSG, we analyzed 78 IIH patients (16 males) and 234 matched controls (48 males). Five (6.4 %) IIH and 39 (16.7 %) control patients had OSA, defined as AHI≥15. After adjusting for age, sex, BMI, and comorbidities, IIH was negatively associated with the presence of OSA (OR 0.29, 95%CI 0.10-0.87, p = 0.03). However, models that adjusted for acetazolamide use, with or without comorbidities, showed no significant relationship with OSA (OR 0.31, p = 0.20). Males with IIH had a significantly higher age (p = 0.020), OSA severity (p = 0.032), and arousal index (p = 0.046) compared to females with IIH. CONCLUSIONS: IIH treated with acetazolamide was not an independent risk factor for OSA presence or severity. The presence of IIH treated with acetazolamide likely does not warrant routine screening for OSA, but related risk factors may identify appropriate patients.

Pandemic Effect on Healthcare Use and Death in Adults with Epilepsy: A Population Study.

OBJECTIVES: We conducted a population-based study using Ontario health administrative data to describe trends in healthcare utilization and mortality in adults with epilepsy during the first pandemic year (March 2020-March 2021) compared to historical data (2016-2019). We also investigated if changes in outpatient visits and diagnostic testing during the first pandemic year were associated with increased risk for hospitalizations, emergency department (ED) visits, or death. METHODS: Projected monthly visit rates (per 100,000 people) for outpatient visits, electroencephalography, magnetic resonance, computed tomography, all-cause ED visits, hospitalizations, and mortality were calculated based on historical data by fitting monthly time series autoregressive integrated moving-average models. Two-way interactions were calculated using Quasi-Poisson models. RESULTS: In adults with epilepsy during the first quarter of the pandemic, we demonstrated a reduction in all-cause outpatient visits, diagnostic testing, ED visits and hospitalizations, and a temporary increase in mortality (observed rates of 355.8 vs projected 308.8, 95% CI: 276.3-345.1). By the end of the year, outpatient visits increased (85,535.4 vs 76,620.6, 95% CI: 71,546.9-82,059.4), and most of the diagnostic test rates returned to the projected. The increase in the rate of all-cause mortality during the pandemic, compared to pre-pandemic, was greater during months with the lower frequency of diagnostic tests than months with higher frequency (interaction p-values <.0001). CONCLUSION: We described the impact of the pandemic on healthcare utilization and mortality in adults with epilepsy during the first year. We demonstrated that access to relevant diagnostic testing is likely important for this population while planning restrictions on non-urgent health services.

Scalable computational algorithms for geospatial COVID-19 spread using high performance computing.

A nonlinear partial differential equation (PDE) based compartmental model of COVID-19 provides a continuous trace of infection over space and time. Finer resolutions in the spatial discretization, the inclusion of additional model compartments and model stratifications based on clinically relevant categories contribute to an increase in the number of unknowns to the order of millions. We adopt a parallel scalable solver that permits faster solutions for these high fidelity models. The solver combines domain decomposition and algebraic multigrid preconditioners at multiple levels to achieve the desired strong and weak scalabilities. As a numerical illustration of this general methodology, a five-compartment susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered-deceased (SEIRD) model of COVID-19 is used to demonstrate the scalability and effectiveness of the proposed solver for a large geographical domain (Southern Ontario). It is possible to predict the infections for a period of three months for a system size of 186 million (using 3200 processes) within 12 hours saving months of computational effort needed for the conventional solvers.

Development of Multivariable Prediction Models for the Identification of Patients Admitted to Hospital with an Exacerbation of COPD and the Prediction of Risk of Readmission: A Retrospective Cohort Study using Electronic Medical Record Data.

BACKGROUND: Approximately 20% of patients who are discharged from hospital for an acute exacerbation of COPD (AECOPD) are readmitted within 30 days. To reduce this, it is important both to identify all individuals admitted with AECOPD and to predict those who are at higher risk for readmission. OBJECTIVES: To develop two clinical prediction models using data available in electronic medical records: 1) identifying patients admitted with AECOPD and 2) predicting 30-day readmission in patients discharged after AECOPD. METHODS: Two datasets were created using all admissions to General Internal Medicine from 2012 to 2018 at two hospitals: one cohort to identify AECOPD and a second cohort to predict 30-day readmissions. We fit and internally validated models with four algorithms. RESULTS: Of the 64,609 admissions, 3,620 (5.6%) were diagnosed with an AECOPD. Of those discharged, 518 (15.4%) had a readmission to hospital within 30 days. For identification of patients with a diagnosis of an AECOPD, the top-performing models were LASSO and a four-variable regression model that consisted of specific medications ordered within the first 72 hours of admission. For 30-day readmission prediction, a two-variable regression model was the top performing model consisting of number of COPD admissions in the previous year and the number of non-COPD admissions in the previous year. CONCLUSION: We generated clinical prediction models to identify AECOPDs during hospitalization and to predict 30-day readmissions after an acute exacerbation from a dataset derived from available EMR data. Further work is needed to improve and externally validate these models.

Impact of sleep chronotype on in-laboratory polysomnography parameters.

Morningness-eveningness preference, also known as chronotype, is the tendency for a person to sleep during certain hours of the day and is broadly categorised into morning and evening types. In-laboratory polysomnography (iPSG) is the gold-standard to assess sleep, however, an individual's chronotype is not accounted for in current protocols, which may confound collected sleep data. The objective of our study was to assess if chronotype had an association with sleep physiology. Patients who completed the diagnostic iPSG and the Morningness-Eveningness Questionnaire (MEQ), which categorises patients into morning type, neither or evening type, were assessed. Multivariable linear regression models were used to assess if chronotype was associated with sleep quality, duration, and physiology during iPSG. The study sample included 2612 patients (mean age of 53.6 years, 48% male) recruited during 2010-2015. Morning type, compared with neither type, was significantly associated with an increase in total sleep time and rapid eye movement (REM) sleep, and a decrease in sleep onset latency and the arousal index. Evening type, compared with neither type, was significantly associated with a decrease in total sleep time, sleep efficiency, and REM sleep, and an increase in sleep onset latency and wake after sleep onset. Additionally, iPSG lights out time was significantly different between the different chronotypes. Overall, a morningness chronotype was associated with favourable sleep quality and duration while an eveningness chronotype was associated with reduced sleep quality. Our study quantifies the association of chronotype with iPSG metrics and suggests that laboratory protocols should consider chronotype in their evaluations.

Physician benzodiazepine self-use prior to and during the COVID-19 pandemic in Ontario, Canada: a population-level cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to investigate physician benzodiazepine (BZD) self-use pre-COVID-19 pandemic and to examine changes in BZD self-use during the first year of the pandemic. DESIGN: Population-based retrospective cohort study using linked routinely collected administrative health data comparing the first year of the pandemic to the period before the pandemic. SETTING: Province of Ontario, Canada between March 2016 and March 2021. PARTICIPANTS: INTERVENTION: Onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020. OUTCOMES MEASURES: The primary outcome measure was the receipt of one or more prescriptions for BZD, which was captured via the Narcotics Monitoring System. RESULTS: In a cohort of 30 798 physicians (mean age 42, 47.8% women), we found that during the year before the pandemic, 4.4% of physicians had 1 or more BZD prescriptions. Older physicians (6.8% aged 50+ years), female physicians (5.1%) and physicians with a prior mental health (MH) diagnosis (12.4%) were more likely than younger (3.7% aged <50 years), male physicians (3.8%) and physicians without a prior MH diagnosis (2.9%) to have received 1 or more BZD prescriptions. The first year of the COVID-19 pandemic was associated with a 10.5% decrease (adjusted OR (aOR) 0.85, 95% CI: 0.80 to 0.91) in the number of physicians with 1 or more BZD prescriptions compared with the year before the pandemic. Female physicians were less likely to reduce BZD self-use (aORfemale=0.90, 95% CI: 0.83 to 0.98) compared with male physicians (aORmale=0.79, 95% CI: 0.72 to 0.87, pinteraction=0.046 during the pandemic. Physicians presenting with an incident MH visit had higher odds of filling a BZD prescription during COVID-19 compared with the prior year. CONCLUSIONS: Physicians' BZD prescriptions decreased during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic in Ontario, Canada. These findings suggest that previously reported increases in mental distress and MH visits among physicians during the pandemic did not lead to greater self-use of BZDs.