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1.
Surg Today ; 2024 Aug 10.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39126494

RESUMEN

PURPOSE: The study aims to present a specialized educational program using a 3D printed model for managing Grade IV and V liver injuries. Hepatic packing, a common technique, may not always achieve sufficient hemostasis in these cases, warranting alternative solutions such as mesh liver wrapping. However, mastering this procedure is challenging due to limited teaching resources and the need for repeated practice. METHODS: A computer-based model was created from an abdominal CT scan to produce a real-sized injured liver model using thermoplastic elastomer TPU-95. Trainees received systematic instruction from an instructor, allowing them to perform the procedure under supervision and independently. RESULTS: Eight surgical residents at Hillel Yaffe Medical Center participated in the program, with the majority successfully completing the procedure under supervision. Furthermore, trainees demonstrated reduced procedure times when performing independently, indicating improved proficiency. CONCLUSION: This educational approach offers a simple and repeatable method for continuous training in managing high-grade liver injuries, holding potential for enhanced patient outcomes.

2.
World J Emerg Surg ; 19(1): 26, 2024 Jul 16.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39010099

RESUMEN

Emergency general surgeons often provide care to severely ill patients requiring surgical interventions and intensive support. One of the primary drivers of morbidity and mortality is perioperative bleeding. In general, when addressing life threatening haemorrhage, blood transfusion can become an essential part of overall resuscitation. However, under all circumstances, indications for blood transfusion must be accurately evaluated. When patients decline blood transfusions, regardless of the reason, surgeons should aim to provide optimal care and respect and accommodate each patient's values and target the best outcome possible given the patient's desires and his/her clinical condition. The aim of this position paper was to perform a review of the existing literature and to provide comprehensive recommendations on organizational, surgical, anaesthetic, and haemostatic strategies that can be used to provide optimal peri-operative blood management, reduce, or avoid blood transfusions and ultimately improve patient outcomes.


Asunto(s)
Transfusión Sanguínea , Consenso , Humanos , Transfusión Sanguínea/métodos , Pérdida de Sangre Quirúrgica/prevención & control , Cirugía General , Cirugía de Cuidados Intensivos
4.
Am J Med Sci ; 368(4): 320-324, 2024 Oct.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38801949

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: Perianal abscess is a common disease among adults, necessitating surgical drainage. We aimed to assess the role of microbiology and other factors in prolonged hospitalization of patients with perianal abscesses. METHODS: This retrospective study included all patients aged 18 or older who underwent surgical incision and drainage for perianal abscess in a single medical center between 2016 and 2020. Data regarding demographics, bacteriological cultures, and length of hospital stay were collected via electronic patient charts. A prolonged hospital stay was defined as a LOS longer than 3 days. RESULTS: A total of 791 patients were included, of which 77.5% were male, with a mean age of 43.2. Overall, 46.1% of patients had positive cultures, of which 69.9% were polymicrobial. The most common pathogen found in obtained cultures was Escherichia coli (69.9%), followed by streptococcus species (36.7%) and Bacteroides (26.0%). Females had a significantly longer hospital stay (p = 0.03). Prolonged hospital stay was associated with older age (p < 0.0001), female gender (p = 0.04), and positive cultures for Enterococcus (p = 0.02). CONCLUSIONS: This study identified clinical and microbiological risk factors for prolonged hospitalization in patients with perianal abscesses. Further studies are needed to evaluate the association between specific pathogens and rates of complications.


Asunto(s)
Absceso , Tiempo de Internación , Humanos , Masculino , Femenino , Tiempo de Internación/estadística & datos numéricos , Adulto , Estudios Retrospectivos , Persona de Mediana Edad , Absceso/microbiología , Enfermedades del Ano/microbiología , Enfermedades del Ano/terapia , Drenaje , Factores de Riesgo , Anciano
6.
Front Digit Health ; 6: 1321485, 2024.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38433989

RESUMEN

Importance: Healthcare organizations operate in a data-rich environment and depend on digital computerized systems; thus, they may be exposed to cyber threats. Indeed, one of the most vulnerable sectors to hacks and malware is healthcare. However, the impact of cyberattacks on healthcare organizations remains under-investigated. Objective: This study aims to describe a major attack on an entire medical center that resulted in a complete shutdown of all computer systems and to identify the critical actions required to resume regular operations. Setting: This study was conducted on a public, general, and acute care referral university teaching hospital. Methods: We report the different recovery measures on various hospital clinical activities and their impact on clinical work. Results: The system malfunction of hospital computers did not reduce the number of heart catheterizations, births, or outpatient clinic visits. However, a sharp drop in surgical activities, emergency room visits, and total hospital occupancy was observed immediately and during the first postattack week. A gradual increase in all clinical activities was detected starting in the second week after the attack, with a significant increase of 30% associated with the restoration of the electronic medical records (EMR) and laboratory module and a 50% increase associated with the return of the imaging module archiving. One limitation of the present study is that, due to its retrospective design, there were no data regarding the number of elective internal care hospitalizations that were considered crucial. Conclusions and relevance: The risk of ransomware cyberattacks is growing. Healthcare systems at all levels of the hospital should be aware of this threat and implement protocols should this catastrophic event occur. Careful evaluation of steady computer system recovery weekly enables vital hospital function, even under a major cyberattack. The restoration of EMR, laboratory systems, and imaging archiving modules was found to be the most significant factor that allowed the return to normal clinical hospital work.

7.
J Trauma Acute Care Surg ; 96(6): 921-930, 2024 Jun 01.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38227678

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: Resuscitative endovascular balloon occlusion of the aorta (REBOA) could prevent lethal exsanguination and support cardiopulmonary resuscitation. In prehospital trauma and medical emergency settings, a small population with high mortality rates could potentially benefit from early REBOA deployment. However, its use in these situations remains highly disputed. Since publication of the first Delphi study on REBOA, in which consensus was not reached on all addressed topics, new literature has emerged. The aim of this study was to establish consensus on the use and implementation of REBOA in civilian prehospital settings for noncompressible truncal hemorrhage and out-of-hospital cardiac arrest as well as for various in-hospital settings. METHODS: A Delphi study consisting of three rounds of questionnaires was conducted based on a review of recent literature. REBOA experts with different medical specialties, backgrounds, and work environments were invited for the international panel. Consensus was reached when a minimum of 75% of panelists responded to a question and at least 75% (positive) or less than 25% (negative) of these respondents agreed on the questioned subject. RESULTS: Panel members reached consensus on potential (contra)indications, physiological thresholds for patient selection, the use of ultrasound and practical, and technical aspects for early femoral artery access and prehospital REBOA. CONCLUSION: The international expert panel agreed that REBOA can be used in civilian prehospital settings for temporary control of noncompressible truncal hemorrhage, provided that personnel are properly trained and protocols are established. For prehospital REBOA and early femoral artery access, consensus was reached on (contra)indications, physiological thresholds and practical aspects. The panel recommends the initiation of a randomized clinical trial investigating the use of prehospital REBOA for noncompressible truncal hemorrhage. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Therapeutic/Care Management; Level V.


Asunto(s)
Aorta , Oclusión con Balón , Consenso , Técnica Delphi , Servicios Médicos de Urgencia , Procedimientos Endovasculares , Resucitación , Humanos , Oclusión con Balón/métodos , Servicios Médicos de Urgencia/métodos , Resucitación/métodos , Procedimientos Endovasculares/métodos , Hemorragia/terapia , Hemorragia/prevención & control , Hemorragia/etiología , Heridas y Lesiones/terapia , Heridas y Lesiones/complicaciones , Paro Cardíaco Extrahospitalario/terapia , Exsanguinación/terapia
8.
Surgeon ; 22(1): 37-42, 2024 Feb.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37652801

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: Resuscitative endovascular balloon occlusion of the aorta (REBOA) is a method for temporary hemorrhage control used in haemodynamically unwell patients with severe bleeding. In haemodynamically unwell abdominal trauma patients, laparotomy remains the initial procedure of choice. Using REBOA in patients as a bridge to laparotomy is a novel option whose feasibility and efficacy remain unclear. We aimed to assess the clinical outcome in patients with abdominal injury who underwent both REBOA placement and laparotomy. METHODS: This is a retrospective study, including trauma patients with an isolated abdominal injury who underwent both REBOA placement and laparotomy, during the period 2011-2019. All data were collected via the Aortic Balloon Occlusion Trauma Registry database. RESULTS: One hundred and three patients were included in this study. The main mechanism of trauma was blunt injury (62.1%) and the median injury severity score (ISS) was 33 (14-74). Renal failure and multi-organ dysfunction syndrome (MODS) occurred in 15.5% and 35% of patients, respectively. Overall, 30-day mortality was 50.5%. Post balloon inflation systolic blood pressure (SBP) >80 mmHg was associated with lower 24-h mortality (p = 0.007). No differences in mortality were found among patients who underwent partial occlusion vs. total occlusion of the aorta. CONCLUSIONS: Our results support the feasibility of REBOA use in patients with isolated abdominal injury, with survival rates similar to previous reports for haemodynamically unstable abdominal trauma patients. Post-balloon inflation SBP >80 mmHg was associated with a significant reduction in 24-h mortality rates, but not 30-day mortality. Total aortic occlusion was not associated with increased mortality, MODS, and complication rates compared with partial occlusion.


Asunto(s)
Traumatismos Abdominales , Oclusión con Balón , Procedimientos Endovasculares , Choque Hemorrágico , Humanos , Estudios Retrospectivos , Aorta/cirugía , Hemorragia/etiología , Hemorragia/terapia , Traumatismos Abdominales/complicaciones , Traumatismos Abdominales/cirugía , Puntaje de Gravedad del Traumatismo , Resucitación/efectos adversos , Resucitación/métodos , Oclusión con Balón/efectos adversos , Oclusión con Balón/métodos , Sistema de Registros , Procedimientos Endovasculares/efectos adversos , Choque Hemorrágico/complicaciones , Choque Hemorrágico/terapia
9.
J Trauma Acute Care Surg ; 96(2): 247-255, 2024 Feb 01.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37853558

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: Systolic blood pressure (SBP) is a potential indicator that could guide when to use a resuscitative endovascular balloon occlusion of the aorta (REBOA) in trauma patients with life-threatening injuries. This study aims to determine the optimal SBP threshold for REBOA placement by analyzing the association between SBP pre-REBOA and 24-hour mortality in severely injured hemodynamically unstable trauma patients. METHODS: We performed a pooled analysis of the aortic balloon occlusion (ABO) trauma and AORTA registries. These databases record the details related to the use of REBOA and include data from 14 countries worldwide. We included patients who had suffered penetrating and/or blunt trauma. Patients who arrived at the hospital with a SBP pre-REBOA of 0 mm Hg and remained at 0 mm Hg after balloon inflation were excluded. We evaluated the impact that SBP pre-REBOA had on the probability of death in the first 24 hours. RESULTS: A total of 1,107 patients underwent endovascular aortic occlusion, of these, 848 met inclusion criteria. The median age was 44 years (interquartile range [IQR], 27-59 years) and 643 (76%) were male. The median injury severity score was 34 (IQR, 25-45). The median SBP pre-REBOA was 65 mm Hg (IQR, 49-88 mm Hg). Mortality at 24 hours was reported in 279 (32%) patients. Math modeling shows that predicted probabilities of the primary outcome increased steadily in SBP pre-REBOA below 100 mm Hg. Multivariable mixed-effects analysis shows that when SBP pre-REBOA was lower than 60 mm Hg, the risk of death was more than 50% (relative risk, 1.5; 95% confidence interval, 1.17-1.92; p = 0.001). DISCUSSION: In patients who do not respond to initial resuscitation, the use of REBOA in SBPs between 60 mm Hg and 80 mm Hg may be a useful tool in resuscitation efforts before further decompensation or complete cardiovascular collapse. The findings from our study are clinically important as a first step in identifying candidates for REBOA. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Prognostic and Epidemiological; Level IV.


Asunto(s)
Arteriopatías Oclusivas , Oclusión con Balón , Procedimientos Endovasculares , Choque Hemorrágico , Humanos , Masculino , Adulto , Persona de Mediana Edad , Femenino , Presión Sanguínea , Aorta/lesiones , Choque Hemorrágico/terapia , Puntaje de Gravedad del Traumatismo , Resucitación , Estudios Retrospectivos
10.
Int J Gynaecol Obstet ; 162(2): 562-568, 2023 Aug.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36740900

RESUMEN

OBJECTIVE: To describe the challenges facing the obstetric division following a cyberattack and discuss ways of preparing for and overcoming another one. METHODS: A retrospective descriptive study conducted in a mid-sized medical center. Division activities, including the number of deliveries, cesarean sections, emergency room visits, admissions, maternal-fetal medicine department occupancy, and ambulatory encounters, from 2 weeks before the attack to 8 weeks following it (a total of 11 weeks), were compared with the retrospective period in 2019 (pre-COVID-19). In addition, we present the challenges and adaptation measures taken at the division and hospital levels leading up to the resumption of full division activity. RESULTS: On the day of the cyberattack, critical decisions were made. The media announced the event, calling on patients not to come to our hospital. Also, all elective activities other than cesarean deliveries were stopped. The number of deliveries, admissions, and both emergency room and ambulatory clinic visits decreased by 5%-10% overall for 11 weeks, reflecting the decrease in division activity. Nevertheless, in all stations, there were sufficient activities and adaptation measures to ensure patient safety, decision-making, and workflow of patients were accounted for. CONCLUSIONS: The risk of ransomware cyberattacks is growing. Healthcare systems at all levels should recognize this threat and have protocols for dealing with them once they occur.


Asunto(s)
COVID-19 , Salas de Parto , Embarazo , Recién Nacido , Femenino , Humanos , Estudios Retrospectivos , Cesárea/métodos , Parto Obstétrico/métodos
11.
South Med J ; 115(11): 849-853, 2022 Nov.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36318953

RESUMEN

OBJECTIVES: We aimed to evaluate humor styles in surgeons and internists and investigate the association between humor and burnout. METHODS: A cross-sectional survey of physicians in surgical and medicine departments was conducted, assessing sense of humor and burnout using the Humor Styles Questionnaire and the Emotional Exhaustion subscale of the Maslach Burnout Inventory-Human Services Survey for Medical Personnel. RESULTS: For 131 surgeons and 72 internists, no differences in humor styles were found. A sense of personal accomplishment was more common among surgeons (P = 0.03) and rates of burnout were lower for surgeons (P = 0.02). Physicians with a higher-than-average score in affiliative and self-enhancing humor were less likely to suffer from burnout (P < 0.0001 and P = 0.03, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Surgeons and internists have similar styles of humor. Surgeons suffer less from burnout. Affiliative and self-enhancing humor styles are associated with reduced burnout.


Asunto(s)
Agotamiento Profesional , Cirujanos , Humanos , Estudios Transversales , Agotamiento Profesional/psicología , Cirujanos/psicología , Encuestas y Cuestionarios
12.
Rambam Maimonides Med J ; 13(2)2022 Apr 26.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35482458

RESUMEN

Breast cancer is a common malignancy and a common cause of cancer-related mortality in women. Pre-treatment workup of breast cancer does not routinely include positron emission tomography scans. We aimed to review cases of women with breast cancer and a synchronous second primary malignancy. We present three cases of women with non-metastatic cancer in whom a synchronous second primary malignancy was found. Synchronous, second primary malignancies which were identified included rectal cancer, gastrointestinal stromal tumor, and non-small cell lung cancer. All second primary malignancies were identified by a PET-CT scan. In conclusion, PET-CT may be used for detection of secondary primary malignancies in select breast cancer patients.

13.
Pediatr Emerg Care ; 38(2): 62-64, 2022 Feb 01.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35100742

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: Diffuse axonal injury (DAI) is typically associated with significant mechanisms of injury and the effects of acceleration-deceleration forces on brain tissues. The prognosis of DAI remains a matter of active investigation, but little is known about outcome differences between adult and pediatric populations with DAI. METHODS: We performed a retrospective cohort study involving blunt trauma patients with DAI between the years 1997 and 2018 from the Israeli National Trauma Registry. The patients were divided to pediatric (age <15 years) and adult (age >15 years) groups, with subsequent comparison of demographics and outcomes. RESULTS: Diffuse axonal injury was identified in 1983 patients, including 469 pediatric victims (23.6%) and 1514 adults (76.4%). Adults had higher Injury Severity Score (20.5% vs 13.2%, P = 0.0004), increased mortality (17.7% vs 13.4%, P < 0.0001), longer hospitalizations (58.4% vs 44.4%, P < 0.001), and higher rehabilitation need rates (56.4% vs 41.8%, P < 0.0001). Associated extracranial injuries were also more common in adults, particularly to the chest. CONCLUSIONS: Pediatric patients with DAI have improved outcomes and fewer associated injuries than adult counterparts.


Asunto(s)
Lesión Axonal Difusa , Heridas no Penetrantes , Adolescente , Adulto , Niño , Lesión Axonal Difusa/epidemiología , Humanos , Puntaje de Gravedad del Traumatismo , Sistema de Registros , Estudios Retrospectivos
14.
Surg Infect (Larchmt) ; 23(1): 35-40, 2022 Feb.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34569856

RESUMEN

Background: Calculus biliary disease is a common condition that requires invasive procedures in complicated cases. The effect of biliary instrumentation on the biliary microbiome and its impact on surgical complications after elective cholecystectomy remains unclear. This study aimed to assess the impact of prior biliary instrumentation on the biliary microbiome, as well as on the clinical outcomes of cholecystectomy. Patients and Methods: This retrospective study included all patients who underwent elective cholecystectomy for calculus biliary disease between 2015 and 2020 in a single medical center. Data regarding biliary instrumentation prior to cholecystectomy, biliary cultures obtained during cholecystectomy, and clinical outcomes were collected. A comparison between patients with and without prior instrumentation was performed with regard to biliary cultures and clinical outcomes. Results: Of the 508 patients studied, 109 patients underwent biliary instrumentation prior to cholecystectomy. Patients with prior instrumentation were older and more likely to be men (p < 0.0001). Prior instrumentation was also associated with higher rates of conversion to open surgery (p < 0.0001). Positive biliary cultures and polymicrobial growth were both more common among patients with prior instrumentation (p < 0.0001). Prior instrumentation was associated with longer length of hospital stay, as well as higher rates of perioperative complications and surgical site infection (p < 0.0001). Conclusions: Prior instrumentation was associated with poorer clinical outcomes and affected the biliary microbiome. The different results of biliary cultures in these patients may suggest that an alternative empiric antibiotic regimen should be considered when treating patients with biliary instrumentation.


Asunto(s)
Sistema Biliar , Colecistectomía Laparoscópica , Microbiota , Colecistectomía , Procedimientos Quirúrgicos Electivos , Humanos , Masculino , Estudios Retrospectivos
16.
Emerg Med J ; 38(7): 496-500, 2021 Jul.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33986019

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: Recent studies have reported significant morbidity and mortality in patients with multiple rib fractures, even without flail chest. The aim of this study was to compare the clinical outcome and incidence of associated chest injuries between patients with and without flail chest, with three or more rib fractures. METHODS: This study included patients with blunt trauma with at least three rib fractures, hospitalised during 2010-2019 in the Hillel Yaffe Medical Center in central Israel (level II trauma centre). Patients with and without radiologically defined flail chest were compared with regard to demographics, Injury Severity Score (ISS), GCS, systolic blood pressure (SBP) on admission, radiological evidence of flail chest, associated chest injuries, length of stay in intensive care unit, length of hospitalisation and mortality. RESULTS: The study included 407 patients, of which 79 (19.4%) had flail chest. Overall, pneumothorax and haemothorax were more common among patients with flail chest (p<0.05). When comparing patients with three to five rib fractures, there was no difference in length of intensive care and length of hospitalisation or mortality; however, there was a higher incidence of pneumothorax (24.6% vs 50.0%, p<0.05). When comparing patients with six or more rib fractures, no difference was found between patients with and without flail chest. CONCLUSION: In patients with three to five rib fractures, pneumothorax is more common among patients with flail chest. Clinical significance of flail chest in patients with more than six rib fractures is questionable and flail chest may not be a reliable marker for severity of chest injury in patients with more than six fractures.


Asunto(s)
Tórax Paradójico/complicaciones , Fracturas de las Costillas/clasificación , Adulto , Anciano , Femenino , Tórax Paradójico/clasificación , Tórax Paradójico/epidemiología , Humanos , Puntaje de Gravedad del Traumatismo , Israel/epidemiología , Tiempo de Internación , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Estudios Retrospectivos , Fracturas de las Costillas/complicaciones , Fracturas de las Costillas/epidemiología , Tomografía Computarizada por Rayos X/métodos
17.
Chin J Traumatol ; 24(3): 132-135, 2021 May.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33824073

RESUMEN

PURPOSE: There is a common opinion that spinal fractures usually reflect the substantial impact of injuries and therefore may be used as a marker of significant associated injuries, specifically for intra-abdominal injury (IAI). The impact of concomitant spinal cord injury (SCI) with the risk of associated IAI has not been well clarified. The aim of this study was to evaluate the incidence and severity of IAIs in patients suffering from spinal fractures with or without SCI. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study using the Israeli National Trauma Registry was conducted. Patients with thoracic, lumbar and thoracolumbar fractures resulting from blunt mechanisms of injury from January 1, 1997 to December 31, 2018 were examined, comparing the incidence, severity and mortality of IAIs in patients with or without SCI. The collected variables included age, gender, mechanism of injury, incidence and severity of the concomitant IAIs and pelvic fractures, abbreviated injury scale, injury severity score, and mortality. Statistical analysis was performed using GraphPad InStat ® Version 3.10, with Chi-square test for independence and two sided Fisher's exact probability test. RESULTS: Review of the Israeli National Trauma Database revealed a total of 16,878 patients with spinal fractures. Combined thoracic and lumbar fractures were observed in 1272 patients (7.5%), isolated thoracic fractures in 4967 patients (29.4%) and isolated lumbar fractures in 10,639 patients (63.0%). The incidence of concomitant SCI was found in 4.95% (63/1272), 7.65% (380/4967) and 2.50% (266/10639) of these patients, respectively. The overall mortality was 2.5%, proving higher among isolated thoracic fracture patient than among isolated lumbar fracture counterparts (11.3% vs. 4.6%, p < 0.001). Isolated thoracic fractures with SCI were significantly more likely to die than non-SCI counterparts (8.2% vs. 3.1%, p < 0.001). There were no differences in the incidence of IAIs between patients with or without SCI following thoracolumbar fractures overall or in isolated thoracic fractures; although isolated lumbar fractures patients with SCI were more likely to have renal (3.4% vs. 1.6%, p = 0.02) or bowel injuries (2.3% vs. 1.0%, p = 0.04) than the non-SCI counterparts. CONCLUSION: SCI in the setting of thoracolumbar fracture does not appear to be a marker for associated IAI. However, in a subset of isolated lumbar fractures, SCI patient is associated with increased risks for renal and bowel injury.


Asunto(s)
Traumatismos Abdominales , Traumatismos de la Médula Espinal , Fracturas de la Columna Vertebral , Heridas no Penetrantes , Humanos , Sistema de Registros , Estudios Retrospectivos , Traumatismos de la Médula Espinal/complicaciones , Traumatismos de la Médula Espinal/epidemiología , Fracturas de la Columna Vertebral/epidemiología , Fracturas de la Columna Vertebral/etiología , Heridas no Penetrantes/complicaciones , Heridas no Penetrantes/epidemiología
18.
Chaos Solitons Fractals ; 144: 110718, 2021 Mar.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33531739

RESUMEN

INTRODUCTION: Medical statistics is one of the "milestones" of current medical systems. It is the foundation for many protocols, including medical care systems, government recommendations, epidemic planning, etc. At this time of global COVID-19, credible data on epidemic spread can help governments make better decisions. This study's aim is to evaluate the cyclicity in the number of daily diagnosed coronavirus patients, thus allowing governments to plan how to allocate their resources more effectively. METHODS: To assess this cycle, we consider the time series of the first and second differences in the number of registered patients in different countries. The spectral densities of the time series are calculated, and the frequencies and amplitudes of the maximum spectral peaks are estimated. RESULTS: It is shown that two types of cycles can be distinguished in the time series of the case numbers. Cyclical fluctuations of the first type are characterized by periods from 100 to 300 days. Cyclical fluctuations of the second type are characterized by a period of about seven days. For different countries, the phases of the seven-day fluctuations coincide. It is assumed that cyclical fluctuations of the second type are associated with the weekly cycle of population activity. CONCLUSIONS: These characteristics of cyclical fluctuations in cases can be used to predict the incidence rate.

19.
Chaos Solitons Fractals ; 139: 110039, 2020 Oct.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32834598

RESUMEN

А model of coronavirus incidence is proposed. Process of disease development is represented as analogue of first- and second order phase transition in physical systems. The model is very simple in terms of the data necessary for the calculations. To verify the proposed model, only data on the current incidence rate are required. However, the determination coefficient of model R2 is very high and exceeds 0.95 for most countries. The model permits the accurate prediction of the pandemics dynamics at intervals of up to 10 days. The ADL(autoregressive distributed lag)-model was introduced in addition to the phase transition model to describe the development of the disease at the exponential phase.The ADL-model allows describing nonmonotonic changes in relative infection over the time, and providing to governments and health care decision makers the possibility to predict the outcomes of their decisions on public health.

20.
Brain Inj ; 34(10): 1422-1426, 2020 08 23.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32735766

RESUMEN

PURPOSE: This study was primarily aimed at establishing the incidence and impact of hypotension in patients with blunt traumatic brain injury based on National Trauma Registry Database. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study using the National Trauma Registry was conducted. Patients with TBI following blunt mechanisms of injury were examined, comparing those with and without hypotension (SBP < 90 mm Hg) on arrival. RESULTS: During the period from 1998 to 2017, the registry included 437.354 blunt trauma patients. Of them, 7818 patients were hemodynamically unstable (SBP < 90 mm Hg) on admission. 513 met the inclusion criteria. Significant percentages of patients with high grade injures (ISS≥16) and low admission's GCS 3-12 (46% vs 16.4%), were found in the group of hypotensive TBI patients (p<0.0001). 323 (62.9%) patients had head AIS score 3-4 and only 190 (37.1%) patients AIS 5-6 (p<0.0001). Mortality in the hypotensive TBI group was 32.3%, whereas 6.1% patients died in the TBI hemodynamically stable group (p<0.0001). CONCLUSION: TBI patients presenting with hypotension represent an appreciable portion blunt trauma patients. Prompt brain CT, expedient efforts at optimal resuscitation and possibly early inotropic and vasopressors agents use may have an impact on final outcome in these patients.


Asunto(s)
Lesiones Traumáticas del Encéfalo , Hipotensión , Lesiones Traumáticas del Encéfalo/complicaciones , Lesiones Traumáticas del Encéfalo/epidemiología , Humanos , Hipotensión/epidemiología , Hipotensión/etiología , Incidencia , Puntaje de Gravedad del Traumatismo , Sistema de Registros , Estudios Retrospectivos
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