Deep learning-based long-term risk evaluation of incident type 2 diabetes using electrocardiogram in a non-diabetic population: a retrospective, multicentre study.

Background: Diabetes is a major public health concern. We aimed to evaluate the long-term risk of incident type 2 diabetes in a non-diabetic population using a deep learning model (DLM) detecting prevalent type 2 diabetes using electrocardiogram (ECG). Methods: In this retrospective study, participants who underwent health checkups at two tertiary hospitals in Seoul, South Korea, between Jan 1, 2001 and Dec 31, 2022 were included. Type 2 diabetes was defined as glucose ≥126 mg/dL or glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) ≥ 6.5%. For survival analysis on incident type 2 diabetes, we introduced an additional variable, diabetic ECG, which is determined by the DLM trained on ECG and corresponding prevalent diabetes. It was assumed that non-diabetic individuals with diabetic ECG had a higher risk of incident type 2 diabetes than those with non-diabetic ECG. The one-dimensional ResNet-based model was adopted for the DLM, and the Guided Grad-CAM was used to localise important regions of ECG. We divided the non-diabetic group into the diabetic ECG group (false positive) and the non-diabetic ECG (true negative) group according to the DLM decision, and performed a Cox proportional hazard model, considering the occurrence of type 2 diabetes more than six months after the visit. Findings: 190,581 individuals were included in the study with a median follow-up period of 11.84 years. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve for prevalent type 2 diabetes detection were 0.816 (0.807-0.825) and 0.762 (0.754-0.770) for the internal and external validations, respectively. The model primarily focused on the QRS duration and, occasionally, P or T waves. The diabetic ECG group exhibited an increased risk of incident type 2 diabetes compared with the non-diabetic ECG group, with hazard ratios of 2.15 (1.82-2.53) and 1.92 (1.74-2.11) for internal and external validation, respectively. Interpretation: In the non-diabetic group, those whose ECG was classified as diabetes by the DLM were at a higher risk of incident type 2 diabetes than those whose ECG was not. Additional clinical research on the relationship between the phenotype of ECG and diabetes to support the results and further investigation with tracked data and various ECG recording systems are suggested for future works. Funding: National Research Foundation of Korea.

Clinical Features and Biomarkers Suggestive of Bloodstream Infection in Pediatric Patients With Intestinal Failure and Central Venous Lines for Parenteral Nutrition: A Retrospective Pilot Study.

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to describe demographic, clinical, and laboratory values in febrile pediatric intestinal failure patients with indwelling central venous catheters presenting to the emergency department to determine if there are low-risk features predictive of negative blood cultures that could help identify a subset that do not need hospitalization and/or broad-spectrum antibiotics. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of febrile patients younger than 18 years with diagnosis of intestinal failure requiring a central venous catheter for home parenteral nutrition to identify factors associated with normal blood cultures to identify a low-risk subset. RESULTS: Of 119 encounters, 46% had a bloodstream infection. Children with a bloodstream infection were older than those without. A normal lactate and heart rate were associated with negative blood cultures. CONCLUSION: Pediatric intestinal failure patients with a central venous catheter for home parenteral nutrition presenting to the emergency department with fever and found to have a normal lactate and heart rates had lower rates of bloodstream infection. Although we were unable to create a highly sensitive clinical decision-making rule to identify a low-risk cohort because of the low number of patients meeting both criteria, the promising candidate variables identified merit for future multicenter studies.