CT Chest Imaging Using Normalized Join-Count: Predicting Emphysema Progression in the CanCOLD Study.

Background Pre-existing emphysema is recognized as an indicator of future worsening in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) when observed through CT imaging. However, it remains uncertain whether additional factors, such as the spatial compactness of CT emphysema, might also serve as predictors of disease progression. Purpose To evaluate the relationship between the compactness of CT emphysema voxels and emphysema progression. Materials and Methods This secondary analysis uses data from the prospective Canadian Cohort Obstructive Lung Disease (CanCOLD) study, examining CT images obtained in participants with and without COPD at baseline and a 3-year follow-up time point (November 2009 to November 2018). Measurements of forced expiratory volume in first second of expiration (FEV1) and diffusing capacity of lung for carbon monoxide (DLco) were collected. The normalized join-count (NJC) measurement from baseline CT images and lung density (LD) changes were analyzed. Emphysema progression was defined as an annualized LD change of less than half an SD below the mean of the participants without COPD with no smoking history. Multivariable linear and logistic regression models were used to assess the association between baseline CT NJC measurements and the annualized change in LD, FEV1, DLco, and emphysema progression versus nonprogression. Results A total of 524 participants (mean age, 66 years ± 10 [SD]; 293 male) (FEV1 percent predicted, 88% ± 19; FEV1/FVC, 67% ± 9; DLco percent predicted, 105% ± 25) were analyzed, 187 (36%) of whom had COPD. CT NJC was associated with the annualized change in LD (P < .001), FEV1 (P = .02), and DLco (P = .01). Additionally, CT NJC predicted emphysema progression versus nonprogression (odds ratio, 2.24; 95% CI: 1.37, 3.50; P < .001). Conclusion The spatial distribution, or "compactness," of CT emphysema voxels predicted emphysema progression in individuals with and without COPD. ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT00920348 © RSNA, 2024 Supplemental material is available for this article.

Machine learning and magnetic resonance image texture analysis predicts accelerated lung function decline in ex-smokers with and without chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

Purpose: Our objective was to train machine-learning algorithms on hyperpolarized He 3 magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) datasets to generate models of accelerated lung function decline in participants with and without chronic-obstructive-pulmonary-disease. We hypothesized that hyperpolarized gas MRI ventilation, machine-learning, and multivariate modeling could be combined to predict clinically-relevant changes in forced expiratory volume in 1 s ( FEV 1 ) across 3 years. Approach: Hyperpolarized He 3 MRI was acquired using a coronal Cartesian fast gradient recalled echo sequence with a partial echo and segmented using a k-means clustering algorithm. A maximum entropy mask was used to generate a region-of-interest for texture feature extraction using a custom-developed algorithm and the PyRadiomics platform. The principal component and Boruta analyses were used for feature selection. Ensemble-based and single machine-learning classifiers were evaluated using area-under-the-receiver-operator-curve and sensitivity-specificity analysis. Results: We evaluated 88 ex-smoker participants with 31 ± 7 months follow-up data, 57 of whom (22 females/35 males, 70 ± 9 years) had negligible changes in FEV 1 and 31 participants (7 females/24 males, 68 ± 9 years) with worsening FEV 1 ≥ 60 mL / year . In addition, 3/88 ex-smokers reported a change in smoking status. We generated machine-learning models to predict FEV 1 decline using demographics, spirometry, and texture features, with the later yielding the highest classification accuracy of 81%. The combined model (trained on all available measurements) achieved the overall best classification accuracy of 82%; however, it was not significantly different from the model trained on MRI texture features alone. Conclusion: For the first time, we have employed hyperpolarized He 3 MRI ventilation texture features and machine-learning to identify ex-smokers with accelerated decline in FEV 1 with 82% accuracy.

Enhancing COPD classification using combined quantitative computed tomography and texture-based radiomics: a CanCOLD cohort study.

Background: Recent advances in texture-based computed tomography (CT) radiomics have demonstrated its potential for classifying COPD. Methods: Participants from the Canadian Cohort Obstructive Lung Disease (CanCOLD) study were evaluated. A total of 108 features were included: eight quantitative CT (qCT), 95 texture-based radiomic and five demographic features. Machine-learning models included demographics along with texture-based radiomics and/or qCT. Combinations of five feature selection and five classification methods were evaluated; a training dataset was used for feature selection and to train the models, and a testing dataset was used for model evaluation. Models for classifying COPD status and severity were evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) with DeLong's test for comparison. SHapely Additive exPlanations (SHAP) analysis was used to investigate the features selected. Results: A total of 1204 participants were evaluated (n=602 no COPD; n=602 COPD). There were no differences between the groups for sex (p=0.77) or body mass index (p=0.21). For classifying COPD status, the combination of demographics, texture-based radiomics and qCT performed better (AUC=0.87) than the combination of demographics and texture-based radiomics (AUC=0.81, p<0.05) or qCT alone (AUC=0.84, p<0.05). Similarly, for classifying COPD severity, the combination of demographics, texture-based radiomics and qCT performed better (AUC=0.81) than demographics and texture-based radiomics (AUC=0.72, p<0.05) or qCT alone (AUC=0.79, p<0.05). Texture-based radiomics and qCT features were among the top five features selected (15th percentile of the CT density histogram, CT total airway count, pack-years, CT grey-level distance zone matrix zone distance entropy, CT low-attenuation clusters) for classifying COPD status. Conclusion: Texture-based radiomics and conventional qCT features in combination improve machine­learning models for classification of COPD status and severity.

Dysanapsis Genetic Risk Predicts Lung Function Across the Lifespan.

Rationale Dysanapsis refers to a mismatch between airway tree caliber and lung size arising early in life. Dysanapsis assessed by computed tomography (CT) is evident by early adulthood and associated with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) risk later in life. Objective By examining the genetic factors associated with CT-assessed dysanapsis, we aimed to elucidate its molecular underpinnings and physiological significance across the lifespan. Methods We performed a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of CT-assessed dysanapsis in 11,951 adults, including individuals from two population-based and two COPD-enriched studies. We applied colocalization analysis to integrate GWAS and gene expression data from whole blood and lung. Genetic variants associated with dysanapsis were combined into a genetic risk score that was applied to examine association with lung function in children from a population-based birth cohort (n=1,278) and adults from the UK Biobank (n=369,157). Measurements and Main Results CT-assessed dysanapsis was associated with genetic variants from 21 independent signals in 19 gene regions, implicating HHIP, DSP, and NPNT as potential molecular targets based on colocalization of their expression. Higher dysanapsis genetic risk score was associated with obstructive spirometry among 5 year old children and among adults in the 5th, 6th and 7th decades of life. Conclusions CT-assessed dysanapsis is associated with variation in genes previously implicated in lung development and dysanapsis genetic risk is associated with obstructive lung function from early life through older adulthood. Dysanapsis may represent an endo-phenotype link between the genetic variations associated with lung function and COPD.

Classifying Future Healthcare Utilization in COPD Using Quantitative CT Lung Imaging and Two-Step Feature Selection via Sparse Subspace Learning with the CanCOLD Study.

RATIONALE: Although numerous candidate features exist for predicting risk of higher risk of healthcare utilization in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), the process for selecting the most discriminative features remains unclear. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to develop a robust feature selection method to identify the most discriminative candidate features for predicting healthcare utilization in COPD, and compare the model performance with other common feature selection methods. MATERIALS AND METHODS: In this retrospective study, demographic, lung function measurements and CT images were collected from 454 COPD participants from the Canadian Cohort Obstructive Lung Disease study from 2010-2017. A follow-up visit was completed approximately 1.5 years later and participants reported healthcare utilization. CT analysis was performed for feature extraction. A two-step hybrid feature selection method was proposed that utilized: (1) sparse subspace learning with nonnegative matrix factorization, and, (2) genetic algorithm. Seven commonly used feature selection methods were also implemented that reported the top 10 or 20 features for comparison. Performance was evaluated using accuracy. RESULTS: Of the 454 COPD participants evaluated, 161 (35%) utilized healthcare services at follow-up. The accuracy for predicting subsequent healthcare utilization for the seven commonly used feature selection methods ranged from 72%-76% with the top 10 features, and 77%-80% with the top 20 features. Relative to these methods, hybrid feature selection obtained significantly higher accuracy for predicting subsequent healthcare utilization at 82% ± 3% (p < 0.05). Selected features with the proposed method included: DLCO, FEV1, RV, FVC, TAC, LAA950, Pi-10, LAA856, LAC total hole count, outer area RB1, wall area RB1, wall area and Jacobian. CONCLUSION: The hybrid feature selection method identified the most discriminative features for classifying individuals with and without future healthcare utilization, and increased the accuracy compared to other state-of-the-art approaches.

129Xe MRI Ventilation Textures and Longitudinal Quality-of-Life Improvements in Long-COVID.

RATIONALE AND OBJECTIVES: It remains difficult to predict longitudinal outcomes in long-COVID, even with chest CT and functional MRI. 129Xe MRI reflects airway dysfunction, measured using ventilation defect percent (VDP) and in long-COVID patients, MRI VDP was abnormal, suggestive of airways disease. While MRI VDP and quality-of-life improved 15-month post-COVID infection, both remained abnormal. To better understand the relationship of airways disease and quality-of-life improvements in patients with long-COVID, we extracted 129Xe ventilation MRI textures and generated machine-learning models in an effort to predict improved quality-of-life, 15-month post-infection. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Long-COVID patients provided written-informed consent to 3-month and 15-month post-infection visits. Pyradiomics was used to extract 129Xe ventilation MRI texture features, which were ranked using a Random-Forest classifier. Top-ranking features were used in classification models to dichotomize patients based on St. George's Respiratory Questionnaire (SGRQ) score improvement greater than the minimal-clinically-important-difference (MCID). Classification performance was evaluated using the area under the receiver-operator-characteristic-curve (AUC), sensitivity, and specificity. RESULTS: 120 texture features were extracted from 129Xe ventilation MRI in 44 long-COVID participants (54 ± 14 years), including 30 (52 ± 12 years) with ΔSGRQ≥MCID and 14 (58 ± 18 years) with ΔSGRQ

Airway tree caliber heterogeneity and airflow obstruction among older adults.

Smaller mean airway tree caliber is associated with airflow obstruction and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). We investigated whether airway tree caliber heterogeneity was associated with airflow obstruction and COPD. Two community-based cohorts (MESA Lung, CanCOLD) and a longitudinal case-control study of COPD (SPIROMICS) performed spirometry and computed tomography measurements of airway lumen diameters at standard anatomical locations (trachea-to-subsegments) and total lung volume. Percent-predicted airway lumen diameters were calculated using sex-specific reference equations accounting for age, height, and lung volume. The association of airway tree caliber heterogeneity, quantified as the standard deviation (SD) of percent-predicted airway lumen diameters, with baseline forced expired volume in 1-second (FEV1), FEV1/forced vital capacity (FEV1/FVC) and COPD, as well as longitudinal spirometry, were assessed using regression models adjusted for age, sex, height, race-ethnicity, and mean airway tree caliber. Among 2,505 MESA Lung participants (means ± SD age: 69 ± 9 yr; 53% female, mean airway tree caliber: 99 ± 10% predicted, airway tree caliber heterogeneity: 14 ± 5%; median follow-up: 6.1 yr), participants in the highest quartile of airway tree caliber heterogeneity exhibited lower FEV1 (adjusted mean difference: -125 mL, 95%CI: -171,-79), lower FEV1/FVC (adjusted mean difference: -0.01, 95%CI: -0.02,-0.01), and higher odds of COPD (adjusted odds ratio: 1.42, 95%CI: 1.01-2.02) when compared with the lowest quartile, whereas longitudinal changes in FEV1 and FEV1/FVC did not differ significantly. Observations in CanCOLD and SPIROMICS were consistent. Among older adults, airway tree caliber heterogeneity was associated with airflow obstruction and COPD at baseline but was not associated with longitudinal changes in spirometry.NEW & NOTEWORTHY In this study, by leveraging two community-based samples and a case-control study of heavy smokers, we show that among older adults, airway tree caliber heterogeneity quantified by CT is associated with airflow obstruction and COPD independent of age, sex, height, race-ethnicity, and dysanapsis. These observations suggest that airway tree caliber heterogeneity is a structural trait associated with low baseline lung function and normal decline trajectory that is relevant to COPD.

Beyond Spirometry: Linking Wasted Ventilation to Exertional Dyspnea in the Initial Stages of COPD.

Exertional dyspnea, a key complaint of patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), ultimately reflects an increased inspiratory neural drive to breathe. In non-hypoxemic patients with largely preserved lung mechanics - as those in the initial stages of the disease - the heightened inspiratory neural drive is strongly associated with an exaggerated ventilatory response to metabolic demand. Several lines of evidence indicate that the so-called excess ventilation (high ventilation-CO2 output relationship) primarily reflects poor gas exchange efficiency, namely increased physiological dead space. Pulmonary function tests estimating the extension of the wasted ventilation and selected cardiopulmonary exercise testing variables can, therefore, shed unique light on the genesis of patients' out-of-proportion dyspnea. After a succinct overview of the basis of gas exchange efficiency in health and inefficiency in COPD, we discuss how wasted ventilation translates into exertional dyspnea in individual patients. We then outline what is currently known about the structural basis of wasted ventilation in "minor/trivial" COPD vis-à-vis the contribution of emphysema versus a potential impairment in lung perfusion across non-emphysematous lung. After summarizing some unanswered questions on the field, we propose that functional imaging be amalgamated with pulmonary function tests beyond spirometry to improve our understanding of this deeply neglected cause of exertional dyspnea. Advances in the field will depend on our ability to develop robust platforms for deeply phenotyping (structurally and functionally), the dyspneic patients showing unordinary high wasted ventilation despite relatively preserved FEV1.

A fully automated pipeline for the extraction of pectoralis muscle area from chest computed tomography scans.

Background: Computed tomography (CT)-derived pectoralis muscle area (PMA) measurements are prognostic in people with or at-risk of COPD, but fully automated PMA extraction has yet to be developed. Our objective was to develop and validate a PMA extraction pipeline that can automatically: 1) identify the aortic arch slice; and 2) perform pectoralis segmentation at that slice. Methods: CT images from the Canadian Cohort of Obstructive Lung Disease (CanCOLD) study were used for pipeline development. Aorta atlases were used to automatically identify the slice containing the aortic arch by group-based registration. A deep learning model was trained to segment the PMA. The pipeline was evaluated in comparison to manual segmentation. An external dataset was used to evaluate generalisability. Model performance was assessed using the Dice-Sorensen coefficient (DSC) and PMA error. Results: In total 90 participants were used for training (age 67.0±9.9 years; forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1) 93±21% predicted; FEV1/forced vital capacity (FVC) 0.69±0.10; 47 men), and 32 for external testing (age 68.6±7.4 years; FEV1 65±17% predicted; FEV1/FVC 0.50±0.09; 16 men). Compared with manual segmentation, the deep learning model achieved a DSC of 0.94±0.02, 0.94±0.01 and 0.90±0.04 on the true aortic arch slice in the train, validation and external test sets, respectively. Automated aortic arch slice detection obtained distance errors of 1.2±1.3 mm and 1.6±1.5 mm on the train and test data, respectively. Fully automated PMA measurements were not different from manual segmentation (p>0.05). PMA measurements were different between people with and without COPD (p=0.01) and correlated with FEV1 % predicted (p<0.05). Conclusion: A fully automated CT PMA extraction pipeline was developed and validated for use in research and clinical practice.

Mucus plugs in the airways of asthmatic subjects and smoking status.

BACKGROUND: Mucus plugs have been described in the airways of asthmatic subjects, particularly those with associated with type 2 inflammation and sputum eosinophilia. In the current study we addressed the question of whether smoking, neutrophilic inflammation and airway dimensions affected the prevalence of mucus plugs. METHODS: In a cohort of moderate to severe asthmatics (n = 50), including a group of ex-smokers and current smokers, the prevalence of mucus plugs was quantified using a semi-quantitative score based on thoracic computerized tomography. The relationships between mucus score, sputum inflammatory profile and airway architecture were tested according to patient's smoking status. RESULTS: Among the asthmatics (37% former or active smokers), 74% had at least one mucus plug. The median score was 3 and was unrelated to smoking status. A significant but weak correlation was found between mucus score, FEV1 and FEV1/FVC. Mucus score was significantly correlated with sputum eosinophils. Among former and active smokers, mucus score was correlated with sputum neutrophils. Mucus score was positively associated with FeNO in non-smoking subjects. The lumen dimensions of the main and lobar bronchi were significantly inversely correlated with mucus score. CONCLUSION: Airway mucus plugs could define an asthma phenotype with altered airway architecture and can occur in asthmatic subjects with either neutrophilic or eosinophilic sputum according to their smoking status.

Physiological Characterization of Preserved Ratio Impaired Spirometry in the CanCOLD Study: Implications for Exertional Dyspnea and Exercise Intolerance.

Rationale: It is increasingly recognized that adults with preserved ratio impaired spirometry (PRISm) are prone to increased morbidity. However, the underlying pathophysiological mechanisms are unknown. Objectives: Evaluate the mechanisms of increased dyspnea and reduced exercise capacity in PRISm. Methods: We completed a cross-sectional analysis of the CanCOLD (Canadian Cohort Obstructive Lung Disease) population-based study. We compared physiological responses in 59 participants meeting PRISm spirometric criteria (post-bronchodilator FEV1 < 80% predicted and FEV1/FVC ⩾ 0.7), 264 control participants, and 170 ever-smokers with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), at rest and during cardiopulmonary exercise testing. Measurements and Main Results: Individuals with PRISm had lower total lung, vital, and inspiratory capacities than healthy controls (all P < 0.05) and minimal small airway, pulmonary gas exchange, and radiographic parenchymal lung abnormalities. Compared with healthy controls, individuals with PRISm had higher dyspnea/[Formula: see text]o2 ratio at peak exercise (4.0 ± 2.2 vs. 2.9 ± 1.9 Borg units/L/min; P < 0.001) and lower [Formula: see text]o2peak (74 ± 22% predicted vs. 96 ± 25% predicted; P < 0.001). At standardized submaximal work rates, individuals with PRISm had greater Vt/inspiratory capacity (Vt%IC; P < 0.001), reflecting inspiratory mechanical constraint. In contrast to participants with PRISm, those with COPD had characteristic small airways dysfunction, dynamic hyperinflation, and pulmonary gas exchange abnormalities. Despite these physiological differences among the three groups, the relationship between increasing dyspnea and Vt%IC during cardiopulmonary exercise testing was similar. Resting IC significantly correlated with [Formula: see text]o2peak (r = 0.65; P < 0.001) in the entire sample, even after adjusting for airflow limitation, gas trapping, and diffusing capacity. Conclusions: In individuals with PRISm, lower exercise capacity and higher exertional dyspnea than healthy controls were mainly explained by lower resting lung volumes and earlier onset of dynamic inspiratory mechanical constraints at relatively low work rates. Clinical trial registered with www.clinicaltrials.gov (NCT00920348).

Semiautomated Segmentation and Analysis of Airway Lumen in Pediatric Patients Using Ultra Short Echo Time MRI.

RATIONALE AND OBJECTIVES: Ultra short echo time (UTE) magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) pulse sequences have shown promise for airway assessment, but the feasibility and repeatability in the pediatric lung are unknown. The purpose of this work was to develop a semiautomated UTE MRI airway segmentation pipeline from the trachea-to-tertiary airways in pediatric participants and assess repeatability and lumen diameter correlations to lung function. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A total of 29 participants (n = 7 healthy, n = 11 cystic fibrosis, n = 6 asthma, and n = 5 ex-preterm), aged 7-18 years, were imaged using a 3D stack-of-spirals UTE examination at 3 T. Two independent observers performed airway segmentations using a pipeline developed in-house; observer 1 repeated segmentations 1 month later. Segmentations were extracted using region-growing with leak detection, then manually edited if required. The airway trees were skeletonized, pruned, and labeled. Airway lumen diameter measurements were extracted using ray casting. Intra- and interobserver variability was assessed using the Sørensen-Dice coefficient (DSC) and intra-class correlation coefficient (ICC). Correlations between lumen diameter and pulmonary function were assessed using Spearman's correlation coefficient. RESULTS: For airway segmentations and lumen diameter, intra- and interobserver DSCs were 0.88 and 0.80, while ICCs were 0.95 and 0.89, respectively. The variability increased from the trachea-to-tertiary airways for intra- (DSC: 0.91-0.64; ICC: 0.91-0.49) and interobserver (DSC: 0.84-0.51; ICC: 0.89-0.21) measurements. Lumen diameter was significantly correlated with forced expiratory volume in 1 second and forced vital capacity (P < .05). CONCLUSION: UTE MRI airway segmentation from the trachea-to-tertiary airways in pediatric participants across a range of diseases is feasible. The UTE MRI-derived lumen measurements were repeatable and correlated with lung function.

Dysanapsis is not associated with exertional dyspnoea in healthy male and female never-smokers aged 40 years and older.

In healthy adults, airway-to-lung (i.e., dysanapsis) ratio is lower and dyspnoea during exercise at a given minute ventilation (V̇E) is higher in females than in males. We investigated the relationship between dysanapsis and sex on exertional dyspnoea in healthy adults. We hypothesized that females would have a smaller airway-to-lung ratio than males and that exertional dyspnoea would be associated with airway-to-lung ratio in males and females. We analyzed data from n = 100 healthy never-smokers aged ≥40 years enrolled in the Canadian Cohort Obstructive Lung Disease (CanCOLD) study who underwent pulmonary function testing, a chest computed tomography scan, and cardiopulmonary exercise testing. The luminal area of the trachea, right main bronchus, left main bronchus, right upper lobe, bronchus intermedius, left upper lobe, and left lower lobe were 22%-37% smaller (all p < 0.001) and the airway-to-lung ratio (i.e., average large conducting airway diameter relative to total lung capacity) was lower in females than in males (0.609 ± 0.070 vs. 0.674 ± 0.082; p < 0.001). During exercise, there was a significant effect of V̇E, sex, and their interaction on dyspnoea (all p < 0.05), indicating that dyspnoea increased as a function of V̇E to a greater extent in females than in males. However, after adjusting for age and total lung capacity, there were no significant associations between airway-to-lung ratio and measures of exertional dyspnoea, regardless of sex (all r < 0.34; all p > 0.05). Our findings suggest that sex differences in airway size do not contribute to sex differences in exertional dyspnoea.

Machine Learning and CT Texture Features in Ex-smokers with no CT Evidence of Emphysema and Mildly Abnormal Diffusing Capacity.

RATIONALE AND OBJECTIVES: Ex-smokers without spirometry or CT evidence of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) but with mildly abnormal diffusing capacity of the lungs for carbon monoxide (DLCO) are at higher risk of developing COPD. It remains difficult to make clinical management decisions for such ex-smokers without other objective assessments consistent with COPD. Hence, our objective was to develop a machine-learning and CT texture-analysis pipeline to dichotomize ex-smokers with normal and abnormal DLCO (DLCO≥75%pred and DLCO<75%pred). MATERIALS AND METHODS: In this retrospective study, 71 ex-smokers (50-85yrs) without COPD underwent spirometry, plethysmography, thoracic CT, and 3He MRI to generate ventilation defect percent (VDP) and apparent diffusion coefficients (ADC). PyRadiomics was utilized to extract 496 CT texture-features; Boruta and principal component analysis were used for feature selection and various models were investigated for classification. Machine-learning classifiers were evaluated using area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, and F1-measure. RESULTS: Of 71 ex-smokers without COPD, 29 with mildly abnormal DLCO had significantly different MRI ADC (p < .001), residual-volume to total-lung-capacity ratio (p = .003), St. George's Respiratory Questionnaire (p = .029), and six-minute-walk distance (6MWD) (p < .001), but similar relative area of the lung < -950 Hounsfield-units (RA950) (p = .9) compared to 42 ex-smokers with normal DLCO. Logistic-regression machine-learning mixed-model trained on selected texture-features achieved the best classification accuracy of 87%. All clinical and imaging measurements were outperformed by high-high-pass filter high-gray-level-run-emphasis texture-feature (AUC=0.81), which correlated with DLCO (ρ = -0.29, p = .02), MRI ADC (ρ = 0.23, p = .048), and 6MWD (ρ = -0.25, p = .02). CONCLUSION: In ex-smokers with no CT evidence of emphysema, machine-learning models exclusively trained on CT texture-features accurately classified ex-smokers with abnormal diffusing capacity, outperforming conventional quantitative CT measurements.

Complexity in clinical diagnoses of acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

BACKGROUND: Acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD) is a clinical syndrome with various causes. It is not uncommon that COPD patients presenting with dyspnea have multiple causes for their symptoms including AECOPD, pneumonia, or congestive heart failure occurring concurrently. METHODS: To identify clinical, radiographic, and laboratory characteristics that might help distinguish AECOPD from another dominant disease in patients with a history of COPD, we conducted a retrospective cohort study of hospitalized patients with admitting diagnosis of AECOPD who were screened for a prospective randomized controlled trial from Sep 2016 to Mar 2018. Clinical characteristics, course in hospital, and final diagnosis at discharge were reviewed and adjudicated by two authors. The final diagnosis of each patient was determined based on the synthesis of all presenting signs and symptoms, imaging, and laboratory results. We adhered to AECOPD diagnosis definitions based on the GOLD guidelines. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to identify any associated features of AECOPD with and without other acute processes contributing to dyspnea. RESULTS: Three hundred fifteen hospitalized patients with admitting diagnosis of AECOPD were included. Mean age was 72.5 (SD 10.6) years. Two thirds (65.4%) had spirometry defined COPD. The most common presenting symptom was dyspnea (96.5%), followed by cough (67.9%), and increased sputum (57.5%). One hundred and eighty (57.1%) had a final diagnosis of AECOPD alone whereas 87 (27.6%) had AECOPD with other conditions and 48 (15.2%) did not have AECOPD after adjudication. Increased sputum purulence (OR 3.35, 95%CI 1.68-6.69) and elevated venous pCO2 (OR 1.04, 95%CI 1.01 - 1.07) were associated with a diagnosis of AECOPD but these were not associated with AECOPD alone without concomitant conditions. Radiographic evidence of pleural effusion (OR 0.26, 95%CI 0.12 - 0.58) was negatively associated with AECOPD with or without other conditions while radiographic evidence of pulmonary edema (OR 0.31; 95%CI 0.11 - 0.91) and lobar pneumonia (OR 0.13, 95%CI 0.07 - 0.25) suggested against the diagnosis of AECOPD alone. CONCLUSION: The study highlighted the complexity and difficulty of AECOPD diagnosis. A more specific clinical tool to diagnose AECOPD is needed.

CT Imaging With Machine Learning for Predicting Progression to COPD in Individuals at Risk.

BACKGROUND: Identifying individuals at risk of progressing to COPD may allow for initiation of treatment to potentially slow the progression of the disease or the selection of subgroups for discovery of novel interventions. RESEARCH QUESTION: Does the addition of CT imaging features, texture-based radiomic features, and established quantitative CT scan to conventional risk factors improve the performance for predicting progression to COPD in individuals who smoke with machine learning? STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: Participants at risk (individuals who currently or formerly smoked, without COPD) from the Canadian Cohort Obstructive Lung Disease (CanCOLD) population-based study underwent CT imaging at baseline and spirometry at baseline and follow-up. Various combinations of CT scan features, texture-based CT scan radiomics (n = 95), and established quantitative CT scan (n = 8), as well as demographic (n = 5) and spirometry (n = 3) measurements, with machine learning algorithms were evaluated to predict progression to COPD. Performance metrics included the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) to evaluate the models. DeLong test was used to compare the performance of the models. RESULTS: Among the 294 at-risk participants who were evaluated (mean age, 65.6 ± 9.2 years; 42% female; mean pack-years, 17.9 ± 18.7), 52 participants (23.7%) in the training data set and 17 participants (23.0%) in the testing data set progressed to spirometric COPD at follow-up (2.5 ± 0.9 years from baseline). Compared with machine learning models with demographics alone (AUC, 0.649), the addition of CT imaging features to demographics (AUC, 0.730; P < .05) or CT imaging features and spirometry to demographics (AUC, 0.877; P < .05) significantly improved the performance for predicting progression to COPD. INTERPRETATION: Heterogeneous structural changes occur in the lungs of individuals at risk that can be quantified using CT imaging features, and evaluation of these features together with conventional risk factors improves performance for predicting progression to COPD.

Reduced Total Airway Count and Airway Wall Tapering after Three-Years in Ex-Smokers.

Computed tomography (CT) total-airway-count (TAC) and airway wall-thickness differ across chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) severities, but longitudinal insights are lacking. The aim of this study was to evaluate longitudinal CT airway measurements over three-years in ex-smokers. In this prospective convenience sample study, ex-smokers with (n = 50; 13 female; age = 70 ± 9 years; pack-years = 43 ± 26) and without (n = 40; 17 female; age = 69 ± 10 years; pack-years = 31 ± 17) COPD completed CT, 3He magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), and pulmonary function tests at baseline and three-year follow-up. CT TAC, airway wall-area (WA), lumen-area (LA), and wall-area percent (WA%) were generated. Emphysema was quantified as the relative-area-of-the-lung with attenuation < -950 Hounsfield-units (RA950). MRI ventilation-defect-percent (VDP) was also quantified. Differences over time were evaluated using paired-samples t tests. Multivariable prediction models using the backwards approach were generated. After three-years, forced-expiratory-volume in 1-second (FEV1) was not different in ex-smokers with (p = 0.4) and without (p = 0.5) COPD, whereas RA950 was (p < 0.001, p = 0.02, respectively). In ex-smokers without COPD, there was no change in TAC (p = 0.2); however, LA (p = 0.009) and WA% (p = 0.01) were significantly different. In ex-smokers with COPD, TAC (p < 0.001), WA (p = 0.04), LA (p < 0.001), and WA% (p < 0.001) were significantly different. In all ex-smokers, TAC was related to VDP (baseline: ρ = -0.30, p = 0.005; follow-up: ρ = -0.33, p = 0.002). In significant multivariable models, baseline airway wall-thickness was predictive of TAC worsening. After three-years, in the absence of FEV1 worsening, TAC diminished only in ex-smokers with COPD and airway walls were thinner in all ex-smokers. These longitudinal findings suggest that the evaluation of CT airway remodeling may be a useful clinical tool for predicting disease progression and managing COPD.Clinical trial registration: www.clinicaltrials.gov NCT02279329.

CT airway remodelling and chronic cough.

RATIONALE: Structural airway changes related to chronic cough (CC) are described in the literature, but so far reported data are rare and non-conclusive. Furthermore, they derive mainly from cohorts with small sample sizes. Advanced CT imaging not only allows airway abnormalities to be quantified, but also to count the number of visible airways. The current study evaluates these airway abnormalities in CC and assesses the contribution of CC in addition to CT findings on the progression of airflow limitation, defined as a decline in forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1) over time. METHODS: A total of 1183 males and females aged ≥40 years with thoracic CT scans and valid spirometry from Canadian Obstructive Lung Disease, a Canadian multicentre, population-based study has been included in this analysis. Participants were stratified into 286 never-smokers, 297 ever-smokers with normal lung function and 600 with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) of different severity grades. Imaging parameters analyses included total airway count (TAC), airway wall thickness, emphysema as well as parameters for functional small airway disease quantification. RESULTS: Irrespective of COPD presence, CC was not related to specific airway and lung structure features. Independent of TAC and emphysema score, CC was highly associated with FEV1 decline over time in the entire study population, particularly in ever-smokers (p<0.0001). CONCLUSION: The absence of specific structural CT features independently from COPD presence indicate that other underlying mechanisms are contributing to the symptomatology of CC. On top of derived CT parameters, CC seems to be independently associated with FEV1 decline. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT00920348.