Antigenic drift and subtype interference shape A(H3N2) epidemic dynamics in the United States.

Influenza viruses continually evolve new antigenic variants, through mutations in epitopes of their major surface proteins, hemagglutinin (HA) and neuraminidase (NA). Antigenic drift potentiates the reinfection of previously infected individuals, but the contribution of this process to variability in annual epidemics is not well understood. Here, we link influenza A(H3N2) virus evolution to regional epidemic dynamics in the United States during 1997-2019. We integrate phenotypic measures of HA antigenic drift and sequence-based measures of HA and NA fitness to infer antigenic and genetic distances between viruses circulating in successive seasons. We estimate the magnitude, severity, timing, transmission rate, age-specific patterns, and subtype dominance of each regional outbreak and find that genetic distance based on broad sets of epitope sites is the strongest evolutionary predictor of A(H3N2) virus epidemiology. Increased HA and NA epitope distance between seasons correlates with larger, more intense epidemics, higher transmission, greater A(H3N2) subtype dominance, and a greater proportion of cases in adults relative to children, consistent with increased population susceptibility. Based on random forest models, A(H1N1) incidence impacts A(H3N2) epidemics to a greater extent than viral evolution, suggesting that subtype interference is a major driver of influenza A virus infection ynamics, presumably via heterosubtypic cross-immunity.

Seasonal influenza (flu) viruses cause outbreaks every winter. People infected with influenza typically develop mild respiratory symptoms. But flu infections can cause serious illness in young children, older adults and people with chronic medical conditions. Infected or vaccinated individuals develop some immunity, but the viruses evolve quickly to evade these defenses in a process called antigenic drift. As the viruses change, they can re-infect previously immune people. Scientists update the flu vaccine yearly to keep up with this antigenic drift. The immune system fights flu infections by recognizing two proteins, known as antigens, on the virus's surface, called hemagglutinin (HA) and neuraminidase (NA). However, mutations in the genes encoding these proteins can make them unrecognizable, letting the virus slip past the immune system. Scientists would like to know how these changes affect the size, severity and timing of annual influenza outbreaks. Perofsky et al. show that tracking genetic changes in HA and NA may help improve flu season predictions. The experiments compared the severity of 22 flu seasons caused by the A(H3N2) subtype in the United States with how much HA and NA had evolved since the previous year. The A(H3N2) subtype experiences the fastest rates of antigenic drift and causes more cases and deaths than other seasonal flu viruses. Genetic changes in HA and NA were a better predictor of A(H3N2) outbreak severity than the blood tests for protective antibodies that epidemiologists traditionally use to track flu evolution. However, the prevalence of another subtype of influenza A circulating in the population, called A(H1N1), was an even better predictor of how severe A(H3N2) outbreaks would be. Perofsky et al. are the first to show that genetic changes in NA contribute to the severity of flu seasons. Previous studies suggested a link between genetic changes in HA and flu season severity, and flu vaccines include the HA protein to help the body recognize new influenza strains. The results suggest that adding the NA protein to flu vaccines may improve their effectiveness. In the future, flu forecasters may want to analyze genetic changes in both NA and HA to make their outbreak predictions. Tracking how much of the A(H1N1) subtype is circulating may also be useful for predicting the severity of A(H3N2) outbreaks.

Establishment of Reference Reagents for Single-Radial-Immunodiffusion Assay on the 2022/23 Seasonal Influenza Vaccine in Japan and Their Quality Validation.

Potency tests for influenza vaccines are currently performed using a single-radial immunodiffusion (SRID) assay, which requires a reference antigen and anti-hemagglutinin (HA) serum as reference reagents. Reagents must be newly prepared each time a strain used for vaccine production is modified. Therefore, establishing reference reagents of consistent quality is crucial for conducting vaccine potency tests accurately and precisely. Here, we established reference reagents for the SRID assay to conduct lot release tests of quadrivalent influenza vaccines in Japan during the 2022/23 influenza season. The potency of reference antigens during storage was confirmed. Furthermore, we evaluated the cross-reactivity of each antiserum raised against the HA protein of the 2 lineages of influenza B virus toward different lineages of influenza B virus antigens to select a suitable procedure for the SRID assay for accurate measurement. Finally, the intralaboratory reproducibility of the SRID assay using the established reference reagents was validated, and the SRID reagents had sufficient consistent quality, comparable to that of the reagents used for testing vaccines during previous influenza seasons. Our study contributes to the quality control of influenza vaccines.

Antigenic drift and subtype interference shape A(H3N2) epidemic dynamics in the United States.

Influenza viruses continually evolve new antigenic variants, through mutations in epitopes of their major surface proteins, hemagglutinin (HA) and neuraminidase (NA). Antigenic drift potentiates the reinfection of previously infected individuals, but the contribution of this process to variability in annual epidemics is not well understood. Here we link influenza A(H3N2) virus evolution to regional epidemic dynamics in the United States during 1997-2019. We integrate phenotypic measures of HA antigenic drift and sequence-based measures of HA and NA fitness to infer antigenic and genetic distances between viruses circulating in successive seasons. We estimate the magnitude, severity, timing, transmission rate, age-specific patterns, and subtype dominance of each regional outbreak and find that genetic distance based on broad sets of epitope sites is the strongest evolutionary predictor of A(H3N2) virus epidemiology. Increased HA and NA epitope distance between seasons correlates with larger, more intense epidemics, higher transmission, greater A(H3N2) subtype dominance, and a greater proportion of cases in adults relative to children, consistent with increased population susceptibility. Based on random forest models, A(H1N1) incidence impacts A(H3N2) epidemics to a greater extent than viral evolution, suggesting that subtype interference is a major driver of influenza A virus infection dynamics, presumably via heterosubtypic cross-immunity.

A community cluster of influenza A(H3N2) virus infection with reduced susceptibility to baloxavir due to a PA E199G substitution in Japan, February to March 2023.

A community cluster of influenza A(H3N2) caused by viruses with an E199G substitution in PA was detected in Nara, Japan, between February and March 2023. The three patients with these mutant viruses had not received antiviral treatment before specimen collection but patients in the same hospital had. The sequences of the mutant viruses were closely related, suggesting clonal spread in Nara. They showed reduced susceptibility to baloxavir in vitro; however, the clinical significance of the PA E199G substitution remains unclear.

Saturation time of exposure interval for cross-neutralization response to SARS-CoV-2: Implications for vaccine dose interval.

Evaluating the serum cross-neutralization responses after breakthrough infection with various SARS-CoV-2 variants provides valuable insight for developing variant-proof COVID-19 booster vaccines. However, fairly comparing the impact of breakthrough infections with distinct epidemic timing on cross-neutralization responses, influenced by the exposure interval between vaccination and infection, is challenging. To compare the impact of pre-Omicron to Omicron breakthrough infection, we estimated the effects on cross-neutralizing responses by the exposure interval using Bayesian hierarchical modeling. The saturation time required to generate saturated cross-neutralization responses differed by variant, with variants more antigenically distant from the ancestral strain requiring longer intervals of 2-4 months. The breadths of saturated cross-neutralization responses to Omicron lineages were comparable in pre-Omicron and Omicron breakthrough infections. Our results highlight the importance of vaccine dosage intervals of 4 months or longer, regardless of the antigenicity of the exposed antigen, to maximize the breadth of serum cross-neutralization covering SARS-CoV-2 Omicron lineages.

An external quality assessment feasibility study; cross laboratory comparison of haemagglutination inhibition assay and microneutralization assay performance for seasonal influenza serology testing: A FLUCOP study.

Introduction: External Quality Assessment (EQA) schemes are designed to provide a snapshot of laboratory proficiency, identifying issues and providing feedback to improve laboratory performance and inter-laboratory agreement in testing. Currently there are no international EQA schemes for seasonal influenza serology testing. Here we present a feasibility study for conducting an EQA scheme for influenza serology methods. Methods: We invited participant laboratories from industry, contract research organizations (CROs), academia and public health institutions who regularly conduct hemagglutination inhibition (HAI) and microneutralization (MN) assays and have an interest in serology standardization. In total 16 laboratories returned data including 19 data sets for HAI assays and 9 data sets for MN assays. Results: Within run analysis demonstrated good laboratory performance for HAI, with intrinsically higher levels of intra-assay variation for MN assays. Between run analysis showed laboratory and strain specific issues, particularly with B strains for HAI, whilst MN testing was consistently good across labs and strains. Inter-laboratory variability was higher for MN assays than HAI, however both assays showed a significant reduction in inter-laboratory variation when a human sera pool is used as a standard for normalization. Discussion: This study has received positive feedback from participants, highlighting the benefit such an EQA scheme would have on improving laboratory performance, reducing inter laboratory variation and raising awareness of both harmonized protocol use and the benefit of biological standards for seasonal influenza serology testing.

Different efficacies of neutralizing antibodies and antiviral drugs on SARS-CoV-2 Omicron subvariants, BA.1 and BA.2.

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Omicron subvariant BA.2 has spread in many countries, replacing the earlier Omicron subvariant BA.1 and other variants. Here, using a cell culture infection assay, we quantified the intrinsic sensitivity of BA.2 and BA.1 compared with other variants of concern, Alpha, Gamma, and Delta, to five approved-neutralizing antibodies and antiviral drugs. Our assay revealed the diverse sensitivities of these variants to antibodies, including the loss of response of both BA.1 and BA.2 to casirivimab and of BA.1 to imdevimab. In contrast, EIDD-1931 and nirmatrelvir showed a more conserved activities to these variants. The viral response profile combined with mathematical analysis estimated differences in antiviral effects among variants in the clinical concentrations. These analyses provide essential evidence that gives insight into variant emergence's impact on choosing optimal drug treatment.

Immunogenicity and protective efficacy of SARS-CoV-2 recombinant S-protein vaccine S-268019-b in cynomolgus monkeys.

The vaccine S-268019-b is a severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) spike (S)-protein vaccine consisting of full-length recombinant SARS-CoV-2 S-protein (S-910823) as antigen, mixed with the squalene-based adjuvant A-910823. The current study evaluated the immunogenicity of S-268019-b using various doses of S-910823 and its vaccine efficacy against SARS-CoV-2 challenge in cynomolgus monkeys. The different doses of S-910823 combined with A-910823 were intramuscularly administered twice at a 3-week interval. Two weeks after the second dosing, dose-dependent humoral immune responses were observed with neutralizing antibody titers being comparable to that of human convalescent plasma. Pseudoviruses harboring S proteins from Beta and Gamma SARS-CoV-2 variants displayed approximately 3- to 4-fold reduced sensitivity to neutralizing antibodies induced after two vaccine doses compared with that against ancestral viruses, whereas neutralizing antibody titers were reduced >14-fold against the Omicron variant. Cellular immunity was also induced with a relative Th1 polarized response. No adverse clinical signs or weight loss associated with the vaccine were observed, suggesting safety of the vaccine in cynomolgus monkeys. Immunization with 10 µg of S-910823 with A-910823 demonstrated protective efficacy against SARS-CoV-2 challenge according to genomic and subgenomic viral RNA transcript levels in nasopharyngeal, throat, and rectal swab specimens. Pathological analysis revealed no detectable vaccine-dependent enhancement of disease in the lungs of challenged vaccinated monkeys. The current findings provide fundamental information regarding vaccine doses for human trials and support the development of S-268019-b as a safe and effective vaccine for controlling the current pandemic, as well as general protection against SARS-CoV-2 moving forward.

Vaccination-infection interval determines cross-neutralization potency to SARS-CoV-2 Omicron after breakthrough infection by other variants.

Background: The immune profile against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has dramatically diversified due to a complex combination of exposure to vaccines and infection by various lineages/variants, likely generating a heterogeneity in protective immunity in a given population. To further complicate this, the Omicron variant, with numerous spike mutations, has emerged. These circumstances have created the need to assess the potential of immune evasion by Omicron in individuals with various immune histories. Methods: The neutralization susceptibility of the variants, including Omicron and their ancestors, was comparably assessed using a panel of plasma/serum derived from individuals with divergent immune histories. Blood samples were collected from either mRNA vaccinees or from those who suffered from breakthrough infections of Alpha/Delta with multiple time intervals following vaccination. Findings: Omicron was highly resistant to neutralization in fully vaccinated individuals without a history of breakthrough infections. In contrast, robust cross-neutralization against Omicron was induced in vaccinees that experienced breakthrough infections. The time interval between vaccination and infection, rather than the variant types of infection, was significantly correlated with the magnitude and potency of Omicron-neutralizing antibodies. Conclusions: Immune histories with breakthrough infections can overcome the resistance to infection by Omicron, with the vaccination-infection interval being the key determinant of the magnitude and breadth of neutralization. The diverse exposure history in each individual warrants a tailored and cautious approach to understanding population immunity against Omicron and future variants. Funding: This study was supported by grants from the Japan Agency for Medical Research and Development (AMED).

Antiviral Susceptibilities of Avian Influenza A(H5), A(H7), and A(H9) Viruses Isolated in Japan.

The circulation of avian influenza A viruses in poultry is a public health concern due to the potential transmissibility and severity of these viral infections. Monitoring the susceptibility of these viruses to antivirals is important for developing measures to strengthen the level of preparedness against influenza pandemics. However, drug susceptibility information on these viruses is limited. Here, we determined the susceptibilities of avian influenza A(H5N1), A(H5N2), A(H5N8), A(H7N7), A(H7N9), A(H9N1), and A(H9N2) viruses isolated in Japan to the antivirals approved for use there: an M2 inhibitor (amantadine), neuraminidase inhibitors (oseltamivir, peramivir, zanamivir, and laninamivir) and RNA polymerase inhibitors (baloxavir and favipiravir). Genotypic methods that detect amino acid substitutions associated with antiviral resistance and phenotypic methods that assess phenotypic viral susceptibility to drugs have revealed that these avian influenza A viruses are susceptible to neuraminidase and RNA polymerase inhibitors. These results suggest that neuraminidase and RNA polymerase inhibitors currently approved in Japan could be a treatment option against influenza A virus infections in humans.

Integrating genotypes and phenotypes improves long-term forecasts of seasonal influenza A/H3N2 evolution.

Seasonal influenza virus A/H3N2 is a major cause of death globally. Vaccination remains the most effective preventative. Rapid mutation of hemagglutinin allows viruses to escape adaptive immunity. This antigenic drift necessitates regular vaccine updates. Effective vaccine strains need to represent H3N2 populations circulating one year after strain selection. Experts select strains based on experimental measurements of antigenic drift and predictions made by models from hemagglutinin sequences. We developed a novel influenza forecasting framework that integrates phenotypic measures of antigenic drift and functional constraint with previously published sequence-only fitness estimates. Forecasts informed by phenotypic measures of antigenic drift consistently outperformed previous sequence-only estimates, while sequence-only estimates of functional constraint surpassed more comprehensive experimentally-informed estimates. Importantly, the best models integrated estimates of both functional constraint and either antigenic drift phenotypes or recent population growth.

Vaccination is the best protection against seasonal flu. It teaches the immune system what the flu virus looks like, preparing it to fight off an infection. But the flu virus changes its molecular appearance every year, escaping the immune defences learnt the year before. So, every year, the vaccine needs updating. Since it takes almost a year to design and make a new flu vaccine, researchers need to be able to predict what flu viruses will look like in the future. Currently, this prediction relies on experiments that assess the molecular appearance of flu viruses, a complex and slow approach. One alternative is to examine the virus's genetic code. Mathematical models try to predict which genetic changes might alter the appearance of a flu virus, saving the cost of performing specialised experiments. Recent research has shown that these models can make good predictions, but including experimental measures of the virus' appearance could improve them even further. This could help the model to work out which genetic changes are likely to be beneficial to the virus, and which are not. To find out whether experimental data improves model predictions, Huddleston et al. designed a new forecasting tool which used 25 years of historical data from past flu seasons. Each forecast predicted what the virus population might look like the next year using the previous year's genetic code, experimental data, or both. Huddleston et al. then compared the predictions with the historical data to find the most useful data types. This showed that the best predictions combined changes from the virus's genetic code with experimental measures of its appearance. This new forecasting tool is open source, allowing teams across the world to start using it to improve their predictions straight away. Seasonal flu infects between 5 and 15% of the world's population every year, causing between quarter of a million and half a million deaths. Better predictions could lead to better flu vaccines and fewer illnesses and deaths.

In Vitro Characterization of Multidrug-Resistant Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 Viruses Carrying a Dual Neuraminidase Mutation Isolated from Immunocompromised Patients.

Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses carrying a dual neuraminidase (NA) substitution were isolated from immunocompromised patients after administration of one or more NA inhibitors. These mutant viruses possessed an H275Y/I223R, H275Y/I223K, or H275Y/G147R substitution in their NA and showed enhanced cross-resistance to oseltamivir and peramivir and reduced susceptibility to zanamivir compared to single H275Y mutant viruses. Baloxavir could be a treatment option against the multidrug-resistant viruses because these dual H275Y mutant viruses showed susceptibility to this drug. The G147R substitution appears to stabilize the NA structure, with the fitness of the H275Y/G147R mutant virus being similar or somewhat better than that of the wild-type virus. Since the multidrug-resistant viruses may be able to transmit between humans, surveillance of these viruses must continue to improve clinical management and to protect public health.

Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus exhibiting reduced susceptibility to baloxavir due to a PA E23K substitution detected from a child without baloxavir treatment.

Human-to-human transmission of PA I38 mutant influenza A(H3N2) viruses with reduced baloxavir susceptibility has been reported in Japan. In December 2019, we detected a PA E23K mutant A(H1N1)pdm09 virus from a child without baloxavir treatment. The PA E23K mutant virus exhibited reduced baloxavir susceptibility but remained susceptible to neuraminidase inhibitors. Epidemiological data suggest possible transmission of this PA E23K mutant virus among humans, although its growth capability relative to that of the wild-type virus was reduced. Therefore, baloxavir susceptibility monitoring of influenza viruses is essential.

Human-to-Human Transmission of Influenza A(H3N2) Virus with Reduced Susceptibility to Baloxavir, Japan, February 2019.

In 2019, influenza A(H3N2) viruses carrying an I38T substitution in the polymerase acidic gene, which confers reduced susceptibility to baloxavir, were detected in Japan in an infant without baloxavir exposure and a baloxavir-treated sibling. These viruses' whole-genome sequences were identical, indicating human-to-human transmission. Influenza virus isolates should be monitored for baloxavir susceptibility.

Influenza A(H3N2) virus exhibiting reduced susceptibility to baloxavir due to a polymerase acidic subunit I38T substitution detected from a hospitalised child without prior baloxavir treatment, Japan, January 2019.

In January 2019, two influenza A(H3N2) viruses carrying an I38T substitution in the polymerase acidic subunit (PA), which confers reduced susceptibility to baloxavir, were detected from epidemiologically unrelated hospitalised children in Japan. The viruses exhibited reduced susceptibility to baloxavir but were susceptible to neuraminidase inhibitors. Only one of the two children had been treated with baloxavir. An epidemiological analysis suggests possible transmission of the PA I38T mutant A(H3N2) virus among humans.

Detection of influenza A(H3N2) viruses exhibiting reduced susceptibility to the novel cap-dependent endonuclease inhibitor baloxavir in Japan, December 2018.

The novel cap-dependent endonuclease inhibitor baloxavir marboxil was approved for the treatment of influenza virus infection in Japan in February 2018. Two influenza A(H3N2) viruses carrying an I38T substitution in the polymerase acidic subunit (PA) were detected in baloxavir-treated children in December 2018. This mutation is known to confer reduced susceptibility to baloxavir, and the two mutant viruses exhibited 76- and 120-fold reduced susceptibility to baloxavir.

Susceptibility of Influenza Viruses to the Novel Cap-Dependent Endonuclease Inhibitor Baloxavir Marboxil.

The novel cap-dependent endonuclease inhibitor baloxavir marboxil was approved for the treatment of influenza A and B virus infections in February 2018 in Japan. Because of the need to monitor influenza viruses for reduced susceptibility to this drug, we used two cell-based screening systems - a conventional plaque reduction assay and a focus reduction assay - to evaluate the susceptibility of influenza viruses to baloxavir. First, we generated a reference virus possessing an I38T substitution in the polymerase acidic subunit (PA), which is known to be associated with reduced susceptibility to baloxavir, and demonstrated the validity of our systems using this reference virus. We then determined the susceptibility of a panel of neuraminidase (NA) inhibitor-resistant viruses and their sensitive counterparts to baloxavir. No significant differences in baloxavir susceptibilities were found between the NA inhibitor-resistant and -sensitive viruses. We also examined seasonal influenza viruses isolated during the 2017-2018 influenza season in Japan and found that no currently circulating A(H1N1)pdm09, A(H3N2), or B viruses had significantly reduced susceptibility to baloxavir and none of the viruses possessed an amino acid substitution at PA residue 38. Use of a combination of methods to analyze antiviral susceptibility and detect amino acid substitutions is valuable for monitoring the emergence of baloxavir-resistant viruses.

Isolation of an Egg-Adapted Influenza A(H3N2) Virus without Amino Acid Substitutions at the Antigenic Sites of Its Hemagglutinin.

Antigenic changes in the hemagglutinin protein of recent A(H3N2) viruses often arise when these viruses adapt to their egg host. By serial egg passages of a cell-propagated virus, we successfully isolated an egg-adapted influenza A(H3N2) virus, A/Saitama/103/2014, without amino acid substitutions at the antigenic sites of its hemagglutinin protein but with multiple substitutions in its neuraminidase protein. Antigenic analysis of this egg-adapted A/Saitama/103/2014 virus indicated that its antigenicity did not differ from that of the World Health Organization prototype cell-propagated vaccine virus: A/Hong Kong/4801/2014. Our results suggest that this strategy may facilitate egg-based vaccine production without antigenic alterations in hemagglutinin by egg adaptation.

Characterization of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses isolated from Nepalese and Indian outbreak patients in early 2015.

We characterized influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 isolates from large-scale outbreaks that occurred in Nepal and India in early 2015. Although no specific viral features, which may have caused the outbreaks, were identified, an S84N substitution in hemagglutinin was frequently observed. Chronological phylogenetic analysis revealed that these Nepalese and Indian viruses possessing the S84N substitution constitute potential ancestors of the novel genetic subclade 6B.1 virus that spread globally in the following (2015/16) influenza season. Thus, active surveillance of circulating influenza viruses in the Southern Asia region, including Nepal and India, would be beneficial for detecting novel variant viruses prior to their worldwide spread.