Inferring the natural history of HPV from global cancer registries: insights from a multi-country calibration.

Human papillomavirus (HPV) is the cause of almost all cases of cervical cancer, a disease that kills some 340,000 women per year. The timeline from initial infection with HPV to the onset of invasive cervical cancer spans decades, and observational studies of this process are limited to settings in which treatment of precancerous lesions was withheld or inadequate. Such studies have been critical for understanding the natural history of HPV. Modeling can shed additional insight on the natural history of HPV, especially across geographical settings with varying prevalence of factors known to affect the host-side immune response to HPV, such as HIV and tobacco use. In this study, we create models for the 30 most populous countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, each with country-specific demographic, and behavioral inputs. We found that it was not possible to fit the data if we assumed that the natural history parameters were exactly identical for all countries, even after accounting for demographic and behavioral differences, but that we could achieve a good fit with the addition of a single immunocompetence parameter for each country. Our results indicate that variation in host immune responses may play a role in explaining the differences in the burden of cervical cancer between countries, which in turn implies a greater need for more geographically diverse data collection to understand the natural history of HPV.

HPVsim: An agent-based model of HPV transmission and cervical disease.

In 2020, the WHO launched its first global strategy to accelerate the elimination of cervical cancer, outlining an ambitious set of targets for countries to achieve over the next decade. At the same time, new tools, technologies, and strategies are in the pipeline that may improve screening performance, expand the reach of prophylactic vaccines, and prevent the acquisition, persistence and progression of oncogenic HPV. Detailed mechanistic modelling can help identify the combinations of current and future strategies to combat cervical cancer. Open-source modelling tools are needed to shift the capacity for such evaluations in-country. Here, we introduce the Human papillomavirus simulator (HPVsim), a new open-source software package for creating flexible agent-based models parameterised with country-specific vital dynamics, structured sexual networks, and co-transmitting HPV genotypes. HPVsim includes a novel methodology for modelling cervical disease progression, designed to be readily adaptable to new forms of screening. The software itself is implemented in Python, has built-in tools for simulating commonly-used interventions, includes a comprehensive set of tests and documentation, and runs quickly (seconds to minutes) on a laptop. Performance is greatly enhanced by HPVsim's multiscale modelling functionality. HPVsim is open source under the MIT License and available via both the Python Package Index (via pip install) and GitHub (hpvsim.org).

No antagonism or cross-resistance and a high barrier to the emergence of resistance in vitro for the combination of islatravir and lenacapavir.

Islatravir (ISL) is a deoxyadenosine analog that inhibits HIV-1 reverse transcription by multiple mechanisms. Lenacapavir (LEN) is a novel capsid inhibitor that inhibits HIV-1 at multiple stages throughout the viral life cycle. ISL and LEN are being investigated as once-weekly combination oral therapy for the treatment of HIV-1. Here, we characterized ISL and LEN in vitro to assess combinatorial antiviral activity, cytotoxicity, and the potential for interactions between the two compounds. Bliss analysis revealed ISL with LEN demonstrated additive inhibition of HIV-1 replication, with no evidence of antagonism across the range of concentrations tested. ISL exhibited potent antiviral activity against variants encoding known LEN resistance-associated mutations (RAMs) with or without the presence of M184V, an ISL RAM in reverse transcriptase (RT) . Static resistance selection experiments were conducted with ISL and LEN alone and in combination, initiating with either wild-type virus or virus containing the M184I RAM in RT to further assess their barrier to the emergence of resistance. The combination of ISL with LEN more effectively suppressed viral breakthrough at lower multiples of the compounds' IC50 (half-maximal inhibitory concentration) values and fewer mutations emerged with the combination compared to either compound on its own. The known pathways for development of resistance with ISL and LEN were not altered, and no novel single mutations emerged that substantially reduced susceptibility to either compound. The lack of antagonism and cross-resistance between ISL and LEN support the ongoing evaluation of the combination for treatment of HIV-1.

Cerastecins inhibit membrane lipooligosaccharide transport in drug-resistant Acinetobacter baumannii.

Carbapenem-resistant Acinetobacter baumannii infections have limited treatment options. Synthesis, transport and placement of lipopolysaccharide or lipooligosaccharide (LOS) in the outer membrane of Gram-negative bacteria are important for bacterial virulence and survival. Here we describe the cerastecins, inhibitors of the A. baumannii transporter MsbA, an LOS flippase. These molecules are potent and bactericidal against A. baumannii, including clinical carbapenem-resistant Acinetobacter baumannii isolates. Using cryo-electron microscopy and biochemical analysis, we show that the cerastecins adopt a serpentine configuration in the central vault of the MsbA dimer, stalling the enzyme and uncoupling ATP hydrolysis from substrate flipping. A derivative with optimized potency and pharmacokinetic properties showed efficacy in murine models of bloodstream or pulmonary A. baumannii infection. While resistance development is inevitable, targeting a clinically unexploited mechanism avoids existing antibiotic resistance mechanisms. Although clinical validation of LOS transport remains undetermined, the cerastecins may open a path to narrow-spectrum treatment modalities for important nosocomial infections.

Case Report: Pediatric Thyroid Storm Presenting to the Emergency Department with Afebrile Seizure.

Introduction: Seizures are a common presenting complaint and account for approximately 1% of total emergency department (ED) visits. Seizures are especially common in children less than five years old as they have a lower seizure threshold as compared to adults. One potentially dangerous etiology that is far less common, especially in children, is thyroid storm, the extreme manifestation of hyperthyroidism. Case Report: We describe the case of a 3-year-old girl who presented to the ED with an afebrile seizure but was found to be in thyroid storm. This case should serve as a reminder for emergency physicians to consider thyroid disease when evaluating patients presenting with seizures. Conclusion: Although most pediatric seizures are self-limited and frequently benign, it is imperative that the emergency physician evaluate for and rule out any potentially associated dangerous conditions such as thyroid storm.

Invention of MK-7845, a SARS-CoV-2 3CL Protease Inhibitor Employing a Novel Difluorinated Glutamine Mimic.

As SARS-CoV-2 continues to circulate, antiviral treatments are needed to complement vaccines. The virus's main protease, 3CLPro, is an attractive drug target in part because it recognizes a unique cleavage site, which features a glutamine residue at the P1 position and is not utilized by human proteases. Herein, we report the invention of MK-7845, a novel reversible covalent 3CLPro inhibitor. While most covalent inhibitors of SARS-CoV-2 3CLPro reported to date contain an amide as a Gln mimic at P1, MK-7845 bears a difluorobutyl substituent at this position. SAR analysis and X-ray crystallographic studies indicate that this group interacts with His163, the same residue that forms a hydrogen bond with the amide substituents typically found at P1. In addition to promising in vivo efficacy and an acceptable projected human dose with unboosted pharmacokinetics, MK-7845 exhibits favorable properties for both solubility and absorption that may be attributable to the unusual difluorobutyl substituent.

Identification, structural, and biophysical characterization of a positive modulator of human Kv3.1 channels.

Voltage-gated potassium channels (Kv) are tetrameric membrane proteins that provide a highly selective pathway for potassium ions (K+) to diffuse across a hydrophobic cell membrane. These unique voltage-gated cation channels detect changes in membrane potential and, upon activation, help to return the depolarized cell to a resting state during the repolarization stage of each action potential. The Kv3 family of potassium channels is characterized by a high activation potential and rapid kinetics, which play a crucial role for the fast-spiking neuronal phenotype. Mutations in the Kv3.1 channel have been shown to have implications in various neurological diseases like epilepsy and Alzheimer's disease. Moreover, disruptions in neuronal circuitry involving Kv3.1 have been correlated with negative symptoms of schizophrenia. Here, we report the discovery of a novel positive modulator of Kv3.1, investigate its biophysical properties, and determine the cryo-EM structure of the compound in complex with Kv3.1. Structural analysis reveals the molecular determinants of positive modulation in Kv3.1 channels by this class of compounds and provides additional opportunities for rational drug design for the treatment of associated neurological disorders.

Multiple models for outbreak decision support in the face of uncertainty.

Policymakers must make management decisions despite incomplete knowledge and conflicting model projections. Little guidance exists for the rapid, representative, and unbiased collection of policy-relevant scientific input from independent modeling teams. Integrating approaches from decision analysis, expert judgment, and model aggregation, we convened multiple modeling teams to evaluate COVID-19 reopening strategies for a mid-sized United States county early in the pandemic. Projections from seventeen distinct models were inconsistent in magnitude but highly consistent in ranking interventions. The 6-mo-ahead aggregate projections were well in line with observed outbreaks in mid-sized US counties. The aggregate results showed that up to half the population could be infected with full workplace reopening, while workplace restrictions reduced median cumulative infections by 82%. Rankings of interventions were consistent across public health objectives, but there was a strong trade-off between public health outcomes and duration of workplace closures, and no win-win intermediate reopening strategies were identified. Between-model variation was high; the aggregate results thus provide valuable risk quantification for decision making. This approach can be applied to the evaluation of management interventions in any setting where models are used to inform decision making. This case study demonstrated the utility of our approach and was one of several multimodel efforts that laid the groundwork for the COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub, which has provided multiple rounds of real-time scenario projections for situational awareness and decision making to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention since December 2020.

The changing health impact of vaccines in the COVID-19 pandemic: A modeling study.

Much of the world's population had already been infected with COVID-19 by the time the Omicron variant emerged at the end of 2021, but the scale of the Omicron wave was larger than any that had come before or has happened since, and it left a global imprinting of immunity that changed the COVID-19 landscape. In this study, we simulate a South African population and demonstrate how population-level vaccine effectiveness and efficiency changed over the course of the first 2 years of the pandemic. We then introduce three hypothetical variants and evaluate the impact of vaccines with different properties. We find that variant-chasing vaccines have a narrow window of dominating pre-existing vaccines but that a variant-chasing vaccine strategy may have global utility, depending on the rate of spread from setting to setting. Next-generation vaccines might be able to overcome uncertainty in pace and degree of viral evolution.

Potent targeted activator of cell kill molecules eliminate cells expressing HIV-1.

Antiretroviral therapy inhibits HIV-1 replication but is not curative due to establishment of a persistent reservoir after virus integration into the host genome. Reservoir reduction is therefore an important HIV-1 cure strategy. Some HIV-1 nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors induce HIV-1 selective cytotoxicity in vitro but require concentrations far exceeding approved dosages. Focusing on this secondary activity, we found bifunctional compounds with HIV-1-infected cell kill potency at clinically achievable concentrations. These targeted activator of cell kill (TACK) molecules bind the reverse transcriptase-p66 domain of monomeric Gag-Pol and act as allosteric modulators to accelerate dimerization, resulting in HIV-1+ cell death through premature intracellular viral protease activation. TACK molecules retain potent antiviral activity and selectively eliminate infected CD4+ T cells isolated from people living with HIV-1, supporting an immune-independent clearance strategy.

A Phenotypic Screen Identifies Potent DPP9 Inhibitors Capable of Killing HIV-1 Infected Cells.

Although current antiretroviral therapy can control HIV-1 replication and prevent disease progression, it is not curative. Identifying mechanisms that can lead to eradication of persistent viral reservoirs in people living with HIV-1 (PLWH) remains an outstanding challenge to achieving cure. Utilizing a phenotypic screen, we identified a novel chemical class capable of killing HIV-1 infected peripheral blood mononuclear cells. Tool compounds ICeD-1 and ICeD-2 ("inducer of cell death-1 and 2"), optimized for potency and selectivity from screening hits, were used to deconvolute the mechanism of action using a combination of chemoproteomic, biochemical, pharmacological, and genetic approaches. We determined that these compounds function by modulating dipeptidyl peptidase 9 (DPP9) and activating the caspase recruitment domain family member 8 (CARD8) inflammasome. Efficacy of ICeD-1 and ICeD-2 was dependent on HIV-1 protease activity and synergistic with efavirenz, which promotes premature activation of HIV-1 protease at high concentrations in infected cells. This in vitro synergy lowers the efficacious cell kill concentration of efavirenz to a clinically relevant dose at concentrations of ICeD-1 or ICeD-2 that do not result in complete DPP9 inhibition. These results suggest engagement of the pyroptotic pathway as a potential approach to eliminate HIV-1 infected cells.

Preventing a cluster from becoming a new wave in settings with zero community COVID-19 cases.

BACKGROUND: In settings with zero community transmission, any new SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks are likely to be the result of random incursions. The level of restrictions in place at the time of the incursion is likely to considerably affect possible outbreak trajectories, but the probability that a large outbreak eventuates is not known. METHODS: We used an agent-based model to investigate the relationship between ongoing restrictions and behavioural factors, and the probability of an incursion causing an outbreak and the resulting growth rate. We applied our model to the state of Victoria, Australia, which has reached zero community transmission as of November 2020. RESULTS: We found that a future incursion has a 45% probability of causing an outbreak (defined as a 7-day average of > 5 new cases per day within 60 days) if no restrictions were in place, decreasing to 23% with a mandatory masks policy, density restrictions on venues such as restaurants, and if employees worked from home where possible. A drop in community symptomatic testing rates was associated with up to a 10-percentage point increase in outbreak probability, highlighting the importance of maintaining high testing rates as part of a suppression strategy. CONCLUSIONS: Because the chance of an incursion occurring is closely related to border controls, outbreak risk management strategies require an integrated approaching spanning border controls, ongoing restrictions, and plans for response. Each individual restriction or control strategy reduces the risk of an outbreak. They can be traded off against each other, but if too many are removed there is a danger of accumulating an unsafe level of risk. The outbreak probabilities estimated in this study are of particular relevance in assessing the downstream risks associated with increased international travel.

Covasim: An agent-based model of COVID-19 dynamics and interventions.

The COVID-19 pandemic has created an urgent need for models that can project epidemic trends, explore intervention scenarios, and estimate resource needs. Here we describe the methodology of Covasim (COVID-19 Agent-based Simulator), an open-source model developed to help address these questions. Covasim includes country-specific demographic information on age structure and population size; realistic transmission networks in different social layers, including households, schools, workplaces, long-term care facilities, and communities; age-specific disease outcomes; and intrahost viral dynamics, including viral-load-based transmissibility. Covasim also supports an extensive set of interventions, including non-pharmaceutical interventions, such as physical distancing and protective equipment; pharmaceutical interventions, including vaccination; and testing interventions, such as symptomatic and asymptomatic testing, isolation, contact tracing, and quarantine. These interventions can incorporate the effects of delays, loss-to-follow-up, micro-targeting, and other factors. Implemented in pure Python, Covasim has been designed with equal emphasis on performance, ease of use, and flexibility: realistic and highly customized scenarios can be run on a standard laptop in under a minute. In collaboration with local health agencies and policymakers, Covasim has already been applied to examine epidemic dynamics and inform policy decisions in more than a dozen countries in Africa, Asia-Pacific, Europe, and North America.

Discovery of macrocyclic HDACs 1, 2, and 3 selective inhibitors for HIV latency reactivation.

A series of unique macrocyclic HDACs 1, 2, and 3 selective inhibitors were identified with good enzymatic activity and high selectivity over HDACs 6 and 8. These macrocyclic HDAC inhibitors used an ethyl ketone as the zinc-binding group. Compounds 25 and 26 stood out as leads due to their low double-digit nM EC50s in the 2C4 cell-based HIV latency reactivation assay. The PK profiles of these macrocyclic HDAC inhibitors still needed improvement.

Controlling COVID-19 via test-trace-quarantine.

Initial COVID-19 containment in the United States focused on limiting mobility, including school and workplace closures. However, these interventions have had enormous societal and economic costs. Here, we demonstrate the feasibility of an alternative control strategy, test-trace-quarantine: routine testing of primarily symptomatic individuals, tracing and testing their known contacts, and placing their contacts in quarantine. We perform this analysis using Covasim, an open-source agent-based model, which has been calibrated to detailed demographic, mobility, and epidemiological data for the Seattle region from January through June 2020. With current levels of mask use and schools remaining closed, we find that high but achievable levels of testing and tracing are sufficient to maintain epidemic control even under a return to full workplace and community mobility and with low vaccine coverage. The easing of mobility restrictions in June 2020 and subsequent scale-up of testing and tracing programs through September provided real-world validation of our predictions. Although we show that test-trace-quarantine can control the epidemic in both theory and practice, its success is contingent on high testing and tracing rates, high quarantine compliance, relatively short testing and tracing delays, and moderate to high mask use. Thus, in order for test-trace-quarantine to control transmission with a return to high mobility, strong performance in all aspects of the program is required.

Discovery of Ethyl Ketone-Based Highly Selective HDACs 1, 2, 3 Inhibitors for HIV Latency Reactivation with Minimum Cellular Potency Serum Shift and Reduced hERG Activity.

We describe the discovery of histone deacetylase (HDACs) 1, 2, and 3 inhibitors with ethyl ketone as the zinc-binding group. These HDACs 1, 2, and 3 inhibitors have good enzymatic and cellular activity. Their serum shift in cellular potency has been minimized, and selectivity against hERG has been improved. They are also highly selective over HDACs 6 and 8. These inhibitors contain a variety of substituted heterocycles on the imidazole or oxazole scaffold. Compounds 31 and 48 stand out due to their good potency, high selectivity over HDACs 6 and 8, reduced hERG activity, optimized serum shift in cellular potency, and good rat and dog PK profiles.

Redefining the Histone Deacetylase Inhibitor Pharmacophore: High Potency with No Zinc Cofactor Interaction.

A novel series of histone deacetylase (HDAC) inhibitors lacking a zinc-binding moiety has been developed and described herein. HDAC isozyme profiling and kinetic studies indicate that these inhibitors display a selectivity preference for HDACs 1, 2, 3, 10, and 11 via a rapid equilibrium mechanism, and crystal structures with HDAC2 confirm that these inhibitors do not interact with the catalytic zinc. The compounds are nonmutagenic and devoid of electrophilic and mutagenic structural elements and exhibit off-target profiles that are promising for further optimization. The efficacy of this new class in biochemical and cell-based assays is comparable to the marketed HDAC inhibitors belinostat and vorinostat. These results demonstrate that the long-standing pharmacophore model of HDAC inhibitors requiring a metal binding motif should be revised and offers a distinct class of HDAC inhibitors.

Estimating and mitigating the risk of COVID-19 epidemic rebound associated with reopening of international borders in Vietnam: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Vietnam has emerged as one of the world's leading success stories in responding to COVID-19. After a prolonged period of little to no transmission, there was an outbreak of unknown source in July, 2020, in the Da Nang region, but the outbreak was quickly suppressed. We aimed to use epidemiological, behavioural, demographic, and policy data from the COVID-19 outbreak in Da Nang to calibrate an agent-based model of COVID-19 transmission for Vietnam, and to estimate the risk of future outbreaks associated with reopening of international borders in the country. METHODS: For this modelling study, we used comprehensive data from June 15 to Oct 15, 2020, on testing, COVID-19 cases, and quarantine breaches within an agent-based model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission to model a COVID-19 outbreak in Da Nang in July, 2020. We applied this model to quantify the risk of future outbreaks in Vietnam in the 3 months after the reopening of international borders, under different behavioural scenarios, policy responses (ie, closure of workplaces and schools), and ongoing testing. FINDINGS: We estimated that the outbreak in Da Nang between July and August, 2020, resulted in substantial community transmission, and that higher levels of symptomatic testing could have mitigated this transmission. We estimated that the outbreak peaked on Aug 2, 2020, with an estimated 1060 active infections (95% projection interval 890-1280). If the population of Vietnam remains highly compliant with mask-wearing policies, our projections indicate that the epidemic would remain under control even if a small but steady flow of imported infections escaped quarantine into the community. However, if complacency increases and testing rates are relatively low (10% of symptomatic individuals are tested), the epidemic could rebound again, resulting in an estimated 2100 infections (95% projected interval 1050-3610) in 3 months. These outcomes could be mitigated if the behaviour of the general population responds dynamically to increases in locally acquired cases that exceed specific thresholds, but only if testing of symptomatic individuals is also increased. INTERPRETATION: The successful response to COVID-19 in Vietnam could be improved even further with higher levels of symptomatic testing. If the previous approaches are used in response to new COVID-19 outbreaks, epidemic control is possible even in the presence of low levels of imported cases. FUNDING: Ministry of Science and Technology (Vietnam). TRANSLATION: For the Vietnamese translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Modelling the impact of relaxing COVID-19 control measures during a period of low viral transmission.

OBJECTIVES: To assess the risks associated with relaxing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)-related physical distancing restrictions and lockdown policies during a period of low viral transmission. DESIGN: Network-based viral transmission risks in households, schools, workplaces, and a variety of community spaces and activities were simulated in an agent-based model, Covasim. SETTING: The model was calibrated for a baseline scenario reflecting the epidemiological and policy environment in Victoria during March-May 2020, a period of low community viral transmission. INTERVENTION: Policy changes for easing COVID-19-related restrictions from May 2020 were simulated in the context of interventions that included testing, contact tracing (including with a smartphone app), and quarantine. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Increase in detected COVID-19 cases following relaxation of restrictions. RESULTS: Policy changes that facilitate contact of individuals with large numbers of unknown people (eg, opening bars, increased public transport use) were associated with the greatest risk of COVID-19 case numbers increasing; changes leading to smaller, structured gatherings with known contacts (eg, small social gatherings, opening schools) were associated with lower risks. In our model, the rise in case numbers following some policy changes was notable only two months after their implementation. CONCLUSIONS: Removing several COVID-19-related restrictions within a short period of time should be undertaken with care, as the consequences may not be apparent for more than two months. Our findings support continuation of work from home policies (to reduce public transport use) and strategies that mitigate the risk associated with re-opening of social venues.

Discovery of Highly Selective and Potent HDAC3 Inhibitors Based on a 2-Substituted Benzamide Zinc Binding Group.

The selectivity of histone deacetylase inhibitors (HDACis) is greatly impacted by the zinc binding groups. In an effort to search for novel zinc binding groups, we applied a parallel medicinal chemistry (PMC) strategy to quickly synthesize substituted benzamide libraries. We discovered a series containing 2-substituted benzamides as the zinc binding group which afforded highly selective and potent HDAC3 inhibitors, exemplified by compound 16 with a 2-methylthiobenzamide. Compound 16 inhibited HDAC3 with an IC50 of 30 nM and with unprecedented selectivity of >300-fold over all other HDAC isoforms. Interestingly, a subtle change of the 2-methylthio to a 2-hydroxy benzamide in 20 retains HDAC3 potency but loses all selectivity over HDAC 1 and 2. This significant difference in selectivity was rationalized by X-ray crystal structures of HDACis 16 and 20 bound to HDAC2, revealing different binding modes to the catalytic zinc ion. This series of HDAC3 selective inhibitors served as tool compounds for investigating the minimal set of HDAC isoforms that must be inhibited for the HIV latency activation in a Jurkat 2C4 cell model and potentially as leads for selective HDAC3 inhibitors for other indications.