A machine learning model to predict liver-related outcomes after the functional cure of chronic hepatitis B.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and hepatic decompensation persists after hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) seroclearance. This study aimed to develop and validate a machine learning model to predict the risk of liver-related outcomes (LROs) following HBsAg seroclearance. METHODS: A total of 4,787 consecutive patients who achieved HBsAg seroclearance between 2000 and 2022 were enrolled from 6 centers in South Korea and a territory-wide database in Hong Kong, comprising the training (n=944), internal validation (n=1,102), and external validation (n=2,741) cohorts. Three machine learning-based models were developed and compared in each cohort. The primary outcome was the development of any LRO, including HCC, decompensation, and liver-related death. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 55.2 (interquartile range=30.1-92.3) months, 123 LROs were confirmed (1.1%/person-year) in the Korean cohort. A model with the best predictive performance in the training cohort was selected as the final model (designated as PLAN-B-CURE), which was constructed using a gradient boosting algorithm and 7 variables (age, sex, diabetes, alcohol consumption, cirrhosis, albumin, and platelet count). Compared to previous HCC prediction models, PLAN-B-CURE showed significantly superior accuracy in the training cohort (c-index: 0.82 vs. 0.63-0.70, all P<0.001; area under the receiver operating characteristic curve: 0.86 vs. 0.62-0.72, all P<0.01; area under the precision-recall curve: 0.53 vs. 0.13-0.29, all P<0.01). PLAN-B-CURE showed a reliable calibration function (Hosmer-Lemeshow test P>0.05) and these results were reproduced in the internal and external validation cohorts. CONCLUSION: This novel machine learning model consisting of 7 variables provides reliable risk prediction of LRO after HBsAg seroclearance that can be used for personalized surveillance.

Lack of association between early on-treatment HBeAg seroclearance and development of hepatocellular carcinoma or decompensated cirrhosis.

Background & Aims: The association between hepatitis B envelope antigen (HBeAg) seroclearance during long-term nucleos(t)ide analogue (NA) treatment and the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) remains unclear. Here, we aimed to investigate the association of HBeAg seroclearance during potent NA treatment with the development of HCC and decompensated cirrhosis. Methods: Using a multicenter historical cohort including 2,392 non-cirrhotic adult patients with HBeAg-positive CHB who initiated NA treatment with tenofovir or entecavir, the risk of HCC and decompensated cirrhosis was compared between patients who achieved HBeAg seroclearance within 36 months of NA treatment (the HBeAg-loss group) and those who did not (the HBeAg-maintained group), using inverse probability of treatment weighting. Results: Over a median of 6.6 years of NA treatment, 1,077 patients achieved HBeAg seroclearance (HBeAg loss rate = 6.0 per 100 person-years), 64 patients developed HCC (HCC incidence rate = 0.39 per 100 person-years), and 46 patients developed decompensated cirrhosis (decompensation incidence rate = 0.28 per 100 person-years). The HBeAg-loss and HBeAg-maintained groups had a similar risk of developing HCC (hazard ratio 0.89; 95% CI 0.47-1.68; p = 0.72) and decompensated cirrhosis (hazard ratio 0.98; 95% CI 0.48-1.81; p = 0.91). Compared with delayed HBeAg seroclearance beyond 10 years of NA treatment, the risk of HCC was comparable in those who achieved earlier HBeAg seroclearance at any time point within 10 years, regardless of baseline age and fibrotic burden. Conclusions: Early HBeAg seroclearance during NA treatment was not associated with a reduced risk of development of HCC or decompensated cirrhosis in non-cirrhotic HBeAg-positive patients with CHB. Impact and implications: The association between hepatitis B envelope antigen (HBeAg) seroclearance during long-term nucleos(t)ide analogue treatment and the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with chronic hepatitis B remains unclear. Our findings indicate that early on-treatment HBeAg seroclearance within 3 years was not associated with the development of hepatocellular carcinoma or decompensated cirrhosis. Achieving HBeAg seroclearance may not be an appropriate surrogate endpoint for preventing the development of liver-related outcomes in non-cirrhotic patients with HBeAg-positive chronic hepatitis B treated with nucleos(t)ide analogues.

Metabolic effects and cardiovascular disease risks of antiviral treatments in patients with chronic hepatitis B.

Different antiviral treatments for chronic hepatitis B (CHB) have been known to have different metabolic effects. This study aimed to reveal whether tenofovir alafenamide (TAF)-induced dyslipidemia and its associated outcomes are significant. This study utilized 15-year historical cohort including patients with CHB in Korea and consisted of two parts: the single-antiviral and switch-antiviral cohorts. In the single-antiviral cohort, patients were divided into four groups (entecavir [ETV]-only, tenofovir disoproxil fumarate [TDF]-only, TAF-only, and non-antiviral). Propensity score matching (PSM) and linear regression model were sequentially applied to compare metabolic profiles and estimated atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risks longitudinally. In the switch-antiviral cohort, pairwise analyses were conducted in patients who switched NAs to TAF or from TAF. In the single-antiviral cohort, body weight and statin use showed significant differences between groups before PSM, but well-balanced after PSM. Changes in total cholesterol were significantly different between groups (-2.57 mg/dL/year in the TDF-only group and +2.88 mg/dL/year in the TAF-only group; p = 0.002 and p = 0.02, respectively). In the TDF-only group, HDL cholesterol decreased as well (-0.55 mg/dL/year; p < 0.001). The TAF-only group had the greatest increase in ASCVD risk, followed by the TDF-only group and the non-antiviral group. In the switch-antiviral cohort, patients who switched from TDF to TAF had a higher total cholesterol after switching (+9.4 mg/dL/year) than before switching (-1.0 mg/dL/year; p = 0.047). Sensitivity analysis on data with an observation period set to a maximum of 3 years for NA treatment showed consistent results on total cholesterol (-2.96 mg/dL/year in the TDF-only group and +3.09 mg/dL/year in the TAF-only group; p = 0.001 and p = 0.005, respectively). Another sensitivity analysis conducted on statin-treated patients revealed no significant change in cholesterol and ASCVD risk. TAF was associated with increased total cholesterol, whereas TDF was associated with decreased total and HDL cholesterol. Both TAF and TDF were associated with increased ASCVD risks, and statin use might mitigate these risks.

Risk of hepatocellular carcinoma after curative treatment when switching from tenofovir disoproxil fumarate or entecavir to tenofovir alafenamide: A real-world multicenter cohort study.

AIM: Antiviral treatment reduces the risk of developing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with chronic hepatitis B. However, there is a lack of high-quality evidence regarding the preventive effects of tenofovir alafenamide (TAF) on HCC. We evaluated the impact of TAF use after curative treatment on HCC recurrence. METHODS: Patients who underwent surgery or radiofrequency ablation as a curative treatment for HCC were selected. Those patients who continued antiviral treatment with nucleos(t)ide analogs (NAs; entecavir [ETV] or tenofovir disoproxil fumarate [TDF]) or switched to TAF were included. The primary outcome was HCC recurrence, and the time-varying effect of NA use on HCC recurrence was analyzed using various statistical methods. RESULTS: Among 2794 consecutive patients with chronic hepatitis B who received curative treatment for HCC, 199 subsequently switched from ETV or TDF to TAF. After a median of 3.0 years, 1303 patients (46.6%) experienced HCC recurrence. After propensity score matching (ratio 1:10), switching to TAF was not associated with an increased HCC recurrence (HR 1.00, 95% CI 0.68-1.47; p = 1.00) by time-varying Cox analysis. Switching to TAF was not associated with HCC recurrence in subgroups of NA (HR 1.06, 95% CI 0.67-1.67; p = 0.81 for TDF, and HR 1.09, 95% CI 0.51-2.33; p = 0.82 for ETV). Kaplan-Meier analysis showed comparable HCC recurrence-free survival between patients who switched to TAF and those who continued with their NA (p = 0.08). Time-varying Cox analyses in various subgroups confirmed the primary findings. CONCLUSIONS: TAF is as effective as TDF and ETV in preventing HCC recurrence after curative treatment.

Comparison of atezolizumab plus bevacizumab and lenvatinib for hepatocellular carcinoma with portal vein tumor thrombosis.

BACKGROUND/AIM: Atezolizumab plus bevacizumab and lenvatinib are currently available as first-line therapy for the treatment of unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, comparative efficacy studies are still limited. This study aimed to investigate the effectiveness of these treatments in HCC patients with portal vein tumor thrombosis (PVTT). METHODS: We retrospectively included patients who received either atezolizumab plus bevacizumab or lenvatinib as first-line systemic therapy for HCC with PVTT. Primary endpoint was overall survival (OS), and secondary endpoints included progressionfree survival (PFS) and disease control rate (DCR) determined by response evaluation criteria in solid tumors, version 1.1. RESULTS: A total of 52 patients were included: 30 received atezolizumab plus bevacizumab and 22 received lenvatinib. The median follow-up duration was 6.4 months (interquartile range, 3.9-9.8). The median OS was 10.8 months (95% confidence interval [CI], 5.7 to not estimated) with atezolizumab plus bevacizumab and 5.8 months (95% CI, 4.8 to not estimated) with lenvatinib (P=0.26 by log-rank test). There was no statistically significant difference in OS (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 0.71; 95% CI, 0.34-1.49; P=0.37). The median PFS was similar (P=0.63 by log-rank test), with 4.1 months (95% CI, 3.3-7.7) for atezolizumab plus bevacizumab and 4.3 months (95% CI, 2.6-5.8) for lenvatinib (aHR, 0.93; 95% CI, 0.51-1.69; P=0.80). HRs were similar after inverse probability treatment weighting. The DCRs were 23.3% and 18.2% in patients receiving atezolizumab plus bevacizumab and lenvatinib, respectively (P=0.74). CONCLUSION: The effectiveness of atezolizumab plus bevacizumab and lenvatinib was comparable for the treatment of HCC with PVTT.

Therapeutic Potential of Ex Vivo Expanded γδ T Cells against Osteosarcoma Cells.

Immunotherapy is an attractive therapeutic strategy for the treatment of osteosarcoma (OS). The unique features of γδ T cells have made them popular for cancer immunotherapy. Here, we expanded γδ T cells using human peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) and investigated their therapeutic potential against OS cells. PBMCs from healthy donors were cultured for 10 days with CON medium (unstimulated control); EX media, CON with recombinant human interleukin-2 (rhIL-2) and zoledronate; and EX28 media, CON with rhIL-2, zoledronate, and CD3/CD28 activator. The expanded γδ T cells were isolated by magnetic cell separation or fluorescence-activated cell sorting, cultured with two OS cell lines (KHOS/NP and MG-63) at various cell ratios with or without doxorubicin or ifosfamide, and analyzed for cytotoxicity and cytokine secretion. The number of CD3+γδTCR+Vγ9+ triple-positive γδ T cells and concentrations of IFN-γ and TNF-α were highest in the rhIL-2 (100 IU) and zoledronate (1 µM) supplemented culture conditions. The CD3/CD28 agonist did not show any additional effects on γδ T cell expansion. The expanded γδ T cells exhibited potent in vitro cytotoxicity against OS in a ratio- and time-dependent manner. The γδ T cells may enhance the effect of chemotherapeutic agents against OS and may be a new treatment strategy, including chemo-immunotherapy, for OS.

Development of a Bioluminescent Human Osteosarcoma Model in Humanized NSG Mice: A Pilot Study.

BACKGROUND/AIM: Osteosarcoma is the most common type of bone cancer, but current therapeutic interventions remain largely insufficient. The development of new treatment strategies is needed, and moreover, optimal rodent models are necessary for testing the efficacy of new treatment modalities of osteosarcoma. Humanized mice carry human hematopoietic and immune systems, and are considered an ideal tool to study human diseases including cancer immunology. Herein, we performed a preliminary study toward developing an in vivo bioluminescent osteosarcoma model using humanized immunodeficient (NSG) mice. MATERIALS AND METHODS: To establish the xenograft and orthotopic mouse model, NSG mice engrafted with human CD34+ hematopoietic stem cells were injected with luciferase-expressing KHOS/NP cells at two different time points. Bioluminescence images were obtained to monitor in vivo tumor growth and metastasis. Influence of the degree of human cell engraftment on tumor growth and metastatic behavior was analyzed and compared between the two groups. RESULTS: KHOS/NP-luc cells injected in humanized NSG mice formed macroscopic tumors. The percentage of human CD45+ cells in these models was similar, but the percentage of human CD45+CD3+ and their subset was higher in the late-injection group compared to that of the early-injection group. The rate of KHOS/NP tumor growth was higher in the early-injection group than in the late-injection group. In the present study, human hematopoietic cell engraftment was not influenced by KHOS/NP cell injection, but KHOS/NP osteosarcoma showed more aggressive behavior in the early-injection group than that in the late-injection group, forming larger tumor volumes and earlier metastases. CONCLUSION: The results indicated that tumor growth and progression in humanized NSG mice may have been influenced by higher levels of human cell engraftment, especially T cells. Although there exist some limitations to our study, our preliminary results can provide the basis for the development of a humanized osteosarcoma mouse model.

Metformin displays in vitro and in vivo antitumor effect against osteosarcoma.

PURPOSE: Patients with unresectable, relapsed, or refractory osteosarcoma need a novel therapeutic agent. Metformin is a biguanide derivative used in the treatment of type II diabetes, and is recently gaining attention in cancer research. METHODS: We evaluated the effect of metformin against human osteosarcoma. Four osteosarcoma cell lines (KHOS/NP, HOS, MG-63, U-2 OS) were treated with metformin and cell proliferation was evaluated using 3-(4,5-dimethylthiazol-2-yl)-2,5-diphenyltetrazolium bromide assay. Cell cycle progression and apoptosis were evaluated using flow cytometric analysis, and migration and wound healing assay were performed. Fourteen female Balb/c-nude mice received KHOS/NP cell grafts in their thigh, and were allowed access to metformin containing water (2 mg/mL) ad libitum. Tumor volume was measured every 3-4 days for a period of 4 weeks. RESULTS: Metformin had a significant antiproliferative effect on human osteosarcoma cells. In particular, metformin inhibited the proliferation and migration of KHOS/NP cells by activation of AMP-activated protein kinase and consequent inhibition of the mammalian target of rapamycin pathway. It also inhibited the proliferation of cisplatin-resistant KHOS/NP clone cells. Analysis of KHOS/NP xenograft Balb/c-nude models indicated that metformin displayed potent in vivo antitumor effects. CONCLUSION: Further studies are necessary to explore metformin's therapeutic potential and the possibilities for its use as an adjuvant agent for osteosarcoma.

Humanizing NOD/SCID/IL-2Rγnull (NSG) mice using busulfan and retro-orbital injection of umbilical cord blood-derived CD34(+) cells.

BACKGROUND: Humanized mouse models are still under development, and various protocols exist to improve human cell engraftment and function. METHODS: Fourteen NOD/SCID/IL-2Rγnull (NSG) mice (4‒5 wk old) were conditioned with busulfan and injected with human umbilical cord blood (hUCB)-derived CD34(+) hematopoietic stem cells (HSC) via retro-orbital sinuses. The bone marrow (BM), spleen, and peripheral blood (PB) were analyzed 8 and 12 weeks after HSC transplantation. RESULTS: Most of the NSG mice tolerated the regimen well. The percentage of hCD45(+) and CD19(+) cells rose significantly in a time-dependent manner. The median percentage of hCD45(+)cells in the BM was 55.5% at week 8, and 67.2% at week 12. The median percentage of hCD45(+) cells in the spleen at weeks 8 and 12 was 42% and 51%, respectively. The median percentage of hCD19(+) cells in BM at weeks 8 and 12 was 21.5% and 39%, respectively (P=0.04). Similarly, the median percentage of hCD19(+) cells in the spleen at weeks 8 and 12 was 10% and 24%, respectively (P=0.04). The percentage of hCD19(+) B cells in PB was 23% at week 12. At week 8, hCD3(+) T cells were barely detectable, while hCD7(+) was detected in the BM and spleen. The percentage of hCD3(+) T cells was 2‒3% at week 12 in the BM, spleen, and PB of humanized NSG mice. CONCLUSION: We adopted a simplified protocol for establishing humanized NSG mice. We observed a higher engraftment rate of human CD45(+) cells than earlier studies without any significant toxicity. And human CD45(+) cell engraftment at week 8 was comparable to that of week 12.