New insights into ice multiplication using remote-sensing observations of slightly supercooled mixed-phase clouds in the Arctic.

Secondary ice production (SIP) can significantly enhance ice particle number concentrations in mixed-phase clouds, resulting in a substantial impact on ice mass flux and evolution of cold cloud systems. SIP is especially important at temperatures warmer than -[Formula: see text]C, for which primary ice nucleation lacks a significant number of efficient ice nucleating particles. However, determining the climatological significance of SIP has proved difficult using existing observational methods. Here we quantify the long-term occurrence of secondary ice events and their multiplication factors in slightly supercooled clouds using a multisensor, remote-sensing technique applied to 6 y of ground-based radar measurements in the Arctic. Further, we assess the potential contribution of the underlying mechanisms of rime splintering and freezing fragmentation. Our results show that the occurrence frequency of secondary ice events averages to <10% over the entire period. Although infrequent, the events can have a significant impact in a local region when they do occur, with up to a 1,000-fold enhancement in ice number concentration. We show that freezing fragmentation, which appears to be enhanced by updrafts, is more efficient for SIP than the better-known rime-splintering process. Our field observations are consistent with laboratory findings while shedding light on the phenomenon and its contributing factors in a natural environment. This study provides critical insights needed to advance parameterization of SIP in numerical simulations and to design future laboratory experiments.

Spaceborne Cloud and Precipitation Radars: Status, Challenges, and Ways Forward.

Spaceborne radars offer a unique three-dimensional view of the atmospheric components of the Earth's hydrological cycle. Existing and planned spaceborne radar missions provide cloud and precipitation information over the oceans and land difficult to access in remote areas. A careful look into their measurement capabilities indicates considerable gaps that hinder our ability to detect and probe key cloud and precipitation processes. The international community is currently debating how the next generation of spaceborne radars shall enhance current capabilities and address remaining gaps. Part of the discussion is focused on how to best take advantage of recent advancements in radar and space platform technologies while addressing outstanding limitations. First, the observing capabilities and measurement highlights of existing and planned spaceborne radar missions including TRMM, CloudSat, GPM, RainCube, and EarthCARE are reviewed. Then, the limitations of current spaceborne observing systems, with respect to observations of low-level clouds, midlatitude and high-latitude precipitation, and convective motions, are thoroughly analyzed. Finally, the review proposes potential solutions and future research avenues to be explored. Promising paths forward include collecting observations across a gamut of frequency bands tailored to specific scientific objectives, collecting observations using mixtures of pulse lengths to overcome trade-offs in sensitivity and resolution, and flying constellations of miniaturized radars to capture rapidly evolving weather phenomena. This work aims to increase the awareness about existing limitations and gaps in spaceborne radar measurements and to increase the level of engagement of the international community in the discussions for the next generation of spaceborne radar systems.

Remote Sensing of Droplet Number Concentration in Warm Clouds: A Review of the Current State of Knowledge and Perspectives.

The cloud droplet number concentration (N d) is of central interest to improve the understanding of cloud physics and for quantifying the effective radiative forcing by aerosol-cloud interactions. Current standard satellite retrievals do not operationally provide N d, but it can be inferred from retrievals of cloud optical depth (τ c) cloud droplet effective radius (r e) and cloud top temperature. This review summarizes issues with this approach and quantifies uncertainties. A total relative uncertainty of 78% is inferred for pixel-level retrievals for relatively homogeneous, optically thick and unobscured stratiform clouds with favorable viewing geometry. The uncertainty is even greater if these conditions are not met. For averages over 1° ×1° regions the uncertainty is reduced to 54% assuming random errors for instrument uncertainties. In contrast, the few evaluation studies against reference in situ observations suggest much better accuracy with little variability in the bias. More such studies are required for a better error characterization. N d uncertainty is dominated by errors in r e, and therefore, improvements in r e retrievals would greatly improve the quality of the N d retrievals. Recommendations are made for how this might be achieved. Some existing N d data sets are compared and discussed, and best practices for the use of N d data from current passive instruments (e.g., filtering criteria) are recommended. Emerging alternative N d estimates are also considered. First, new ideas to use additional information from existing and upcoming spaceborne instruments are discussed, and second, approaches using high-quality ground-based observations are examined.

Simulation of mesoscale cellular convection in marine stratocumulus.: Part I: Drizzling conditions.

This study uses eddy-permitting simulations to investigate the mechanisms that promote mesoscale variability of moisture in drizzling stratocumulus-topped marine boundary layers. Simulations show that precipitation tends to increase horizontal scales. Analysis of terms in the prognostic equation for total water mixing ratio variance indicates that moisture stratification plays a leading role in setting horizontal scales. This result is supported by simulations in which horizontal mean thermodynamic profiles are strongly nudged to their initial well-mixed state, which limits cloud scales. It is found that the spatial variability of sub-cloud moist cold pools surprisingly tends to respond to, rather than determine, the mesoscale variability, which may distinguish them from dry cold pools associated with deeper convection. Simulations also indicate that moisture stratification increases cloud scales specifically by increasing latent heating within updrafts, which increases updraft buoyancy and favors greater horizontal scales.

On polarimetric radar signatures of deep convection for model evaluation: columns of specific differential phase observed during MC3E.

The representation of deep convection in general circulation models is in part informed by cloud-resolving models (CRMs) that function at higher spatial and temporal resolution; however, recent studies have shown that CRMs often fail at capturing the details of deep convection updrafts. With the goal of providing constraint on CRM simulation of deep convection updrafts, ground-based remote-sensing observations are analyzed and statistically correlated for four deep convection events observed during the Midlatitude Continental Convective Clouds Experiment (MC3E). Since positive values of specific differential phase (KDP) observed above the melting level are associated with deep convection updraft cells, so-called "KDP columns" are analyzed using two scanning polarimetric radars in Oklahoma: the National Weather Service Vance WSR-88D (KVNX) and the Department of Energy C-band Scanning Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Precipitation Radar (C-SAPR). KVNX and C-SAPR KDP volumes and columns are then statistically correlated with vertical winds retrieved via multi-Doppler wind analysis, lightning flash activity derived from the Oklahoma Lightning Mapping Array, and KVNX differential reflectivity (ZDR). Results indicate strong correlations of KDP volume above the melting level with updraft mass flux, lightning flash activity, and intense rainfall. Analysis of KDP columns reveals signatures of changing updraft properties from one storm event to another as well as during event evolution. Comparison of ZDR to KDP shows commonalities in information content of each, as well as potential problems with ZDR associated with observational artifacts.

Context, cortex, and associations: a connectionist developmental approach to verbal analogies.

We present a PDP model of binary choice verbal analogy problems (A:B as C:[D1|D2], where D1 and D2 represent choice alternatives). We train a recurrent neural network in item-relation-item triples and use this network to test performance on analogy questions. Without training on analogy problems per se, the model explains the developmental shift from associative to relational responding as an emergent consequence of learning upon the environment's statistics. Such learning allows gradual, item-specific acquisition of relational knowledge to overcome the influence of unbalanced association frequency, accounting for association effects of analogical reasoning seen in cognitive development. The network also captures the overall degradation in performance after anterior temporal damage by deleting a fraction of learned connections, while capturing the return of associative dominance after frontal damage by treating frontal structures as necessary for maintaining activation of A and B while seeking a relation between C and D. While our theory is still far from being complete it provides a unified explanation of findings that need to be considered together in any integrated account of analogical reasoning.