Performance of CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED in predicting stroke and bleeding in atrial fibrillation and cancer.

Aims: To compare the predictive performance of CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED scores in atrial fibrillation (AF) patients with and without cancer. Methods and results: Using data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink in England, we performed a retrospective cohort study of patients with new diagnoses of AF from 2009 to 2019. Cancer was defined as history of breast, prostate, colorectal, lung, or haematological cancer. We calculated the CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED scores for the 1-year risk of stroke and major bleeding events. Scores performance was estimated by discrimination [area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC)] and calibration plots. Of 141 796 patients with AF, 10.3% had cancer. The CHA2DS2-VASc score had good to modest discrimination in prostate cancer AUC = 0.74 (95% confidence interval: 0.71, 0.77), haematological cancer AUC = 0.71 (0.66, 0.76), colorectal cancer AUC = 0.70 (0.66, 0.75), breast cancer AUC = 0.70 (0.66, 0.74), and lung cancer AUC = 0.69 (0.60, 0.79), compared with no-cancer AUC = 0.73 (0.72, 0.74). HAS-BLED discrimination was poor in prostate cancer AUC = 0.58 (0.55, 0.61), haematological cancer AUC = 0.59 (0.55, 0.64), colorectal cancer AUC = 0.57 (0.53, 0.61), breast cancer AUC = 0.56 (0.52, 0.61), and lung cancer AUC = 0.59 (0.51, 0.67), compared with no-cancer AUC = 0.61 (0.60, 0.62). Both the CHA2DS2-VASc score and HAS-BLED score were well calibrated across all study cohorts. Conclusion: Amongst certain cancer cohorts in the AF population, CHA2DS2-VASc performs similarly in predicting stroke to AF patients without cancer. Our findings highlight the importance of cancer diagnosis during the development of risk scores and opportunities to optimize the HAS-BLED risk score to better serve cancer patients with AF.

Temporal trends of in-hospital mortality and its determinants following percutaneous coronary intervention in patients with acute coronary syndrome in England and Wales: A population-based study between 2006 and 2021.

BACKGROUND: There is limited data around drivers of changes in mortality over time. We aimed to examine the temporal changes in mortality and understand its determinants over time. METHODS: 743,149 PCI procedures for patients from the British Cardiovascular Intervention Society (BCIS) database who were aged between 18 and 100 years and underwent Percutaneous Coronary Intervention (PCI) for Acute Coronary Syndrome (ACS) in England and Wales between 2006 and 2021 were included. We decomposed the contributing factors to the difference in the observed mortality proportions between 2006 and 2021 using Fairlie decomposition method. Multiple imputation was used to address missing data. RESULTS: Overall, there was an increase in the mortality proportion over time, from 1.7% (95% CI: 1.5% to 1.9%) in 2006 to 3.1% (95% CI: 3.0% to 3.2%) in 2021. 61.2% of this difference was explained by the variables included in the model. ACS subtypes (percentage contribution: 14.67%; 95% CI: 5.76% to 23.59%) and medical history (percentage contribution: 13.50%; 95% CI: 4.33% to 22.67%) were the strongest contributors to the difference in the observed mortality proportions between 2006 and 2021. Also, there were different drivers to mortality changes between different time periods. Specifically, ACS subtypes and severity of presentation were amongst the strongest contributors between 2006 and 2012 while access site and demographics were the strongest contributors between 2012 and 2021. CONCLUSIONS: Patient factors and the move towards ST-elevated myocardial infarction (STEMI) PCI have driven the short-term mortality changes following PCI for ACS the most.

Bleeding risk prediction after acute myocardial infarction-integrating cancer data: the updated PRECISE-DAPT cancer score.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: This study assessed the impact of incorporating cancer as a predictor on performance of the PRECISE-DAPT score. METHODS: A nationally linked cohort of ST-elevation myocardial infarction patients between 1 January 2005 and 31 March 2019 was derived from the UK Myocardial Ischaemia National Audit Project and the UK Hospital Episode Statistics Admitted Patient Care registries. The primary outcome was major bleeding at 1 year. A new modified score was generated by adding cancer as a binary variable to the PRECISE-DAPT score using a Cox regression model and compared its performance to the original PRECISE-DAPT score. RESULTS: A total of 216 709 ST-elevation myocardial infarction patients were included, of which 4569 had cancer. The original score showed moderate accuracy (C-statistic .60), and the modified score showed modestly higher discrimination (C-statistics .64; hazard ratio 1.03, 95% confidence interval 1.03-1.04) even in patients without cancer (C-statistics .63; hazard ratio 1.03, 95% confidence interval 1.03-1.04). The net reclassification index was .07. The bleeding rates of the modified score risk categories (high, moderate, low, and very low bleeding risk) were 6.3%, 3.8%, 2.9%, and 2.2%, respectively. According to the original score, 65.5% of cancer patients were classified as high bleeding risk (HBR) and 21.6% were low or very low bleeding risk. According to the modified score, 94.0% of cancer patients were HBR, 6.0% were moderate bleeding risk, and no cancer patient was classified as low or very low bleeding risk. CONCLUSIONS: Adding cancer to the PRECISE-DAPT score identifies the majority of patients with cancer as HBR and can improve its discrimination ability without undermining its performance in patients without cancer.

Relationship between research activity and general practice performance: cross sectional and longitudinal analyses.

BACKGROUND: Research activity usually improves outcomes by being translated into practice. However, there is developing evidence that research activity itself may improve the overall performance of health care organisations. However, evidence that these relationships represent a causal impact of research activity is less clear. Additionally, the bulk of the existing evidence relates to hospital settings, and it is not known if those relationships would also be found in general practice, where most patient contacts occur. AIM: We sought to (a) test whether there were significant relationships between research activity in general practice and organisational performance (b) test whether those relationships were plausibly causal. DESIGN AND SETTING: We analysed national data between 2008 and 2019 using cross sectional and longitudinal analyses, on general practices in England. METHODS: We used cross-sectional, panel and instrumental variable analyses to explore relationships between research activity (including measures from the NIHR Clinical Research Network and the Royal College of General Practitioners) and practice performance (including clinical quality of care, patient reported experience of care, prescribing quality and hospital admissions) Results: In cross-sectional analyses, research activity was positively associated with several measures of practice performance, including clinical quality of care, patient reported experience of care, and reduced hospital admissions. The associations were generally modest in magnitude. However, longitudinal analyses did not support a reliable causal relationship. CONCLUSION: Similar to findings from hospital settings, research activity in general practice is associated with practice performance. There is less evidence that research is causing those improvements, although this may reflect the limited level of research activity in most practices. We identified no negative impacts, suggesting that research activity is a potential marker of quality and something that high quality practices can deliver alongside their core responsibilities.

Vaccinations, cardiovascular drugs, hospitalization, and mortality in COVID-19 and Long COVID.

OBJECTIVE: To identify highest-risk subgroups for COVID-19 and Long COVID(LC), particularly in contexts of influenza and cardiovascular disease(CVD). METHODS: Using national, linked electronic health records for England (NHS England Secure Data Environment via CVD-COVID-UK/COVID-IMPACT Consortium), we studied individuals (of all ages) with COVID-19 and LC (2020-2023). We compared all-cause hospitalization and mortality by prior CVD, high CV risk, vaccination status (COVID-19/influenza), and CVD drugs, investigating impact of vaccination and CVD prevention using population preventable fractions. RESULTS: Hospitalization and mortality were 15.3% and 2.0% among 17,373,850 individuals with COVID-19 (LC rate 1.3%), and 16.8% and 1.4% among 301,115 with LC. Adjusted risk of mortality and hospitalization were reduced with COVID-19 vaccination ≥ 2 doses(COVID-19:HR 0.36 and 0.69; LC:0.44 and 0.90). With influenza vaccination, mortality was reduced, but not hospitalization (COVID-19:0.86 and 1.01, and LC:0.72 and 1.05). Mortality and hospitalization were reduced by CVD prevention in those with CVD, e.g., anticoagulants- COVID:19:0.69 and 0.92; LC:0.59 and 0.88; lipid lowering- COVID-19:0.69 and 0.86; LC:0.68 and 0.90. COVID-19 vaccination averted 245044 of 321383 and 7586 of 8738 preventable deaths after COVID-19 and LC, respectively. INTERPRETATION: Prior CVD and high CV risk are associated with increased hospitalization and mortality in COVID-19 and LC. Targeted COVID-19 vaccination and CVD prevention are priority interventions. FUNDING: NIHR. HDR UK.

Impact of Society Guidelines on Trends in Use of Newer P2Y12 Inhibitors for Patients With Acute Coronary Syndromes Undergoing Percutaneous Coronary Intervention.

BACKGROUND: Over the past decade, major society guidelines have recommended the use of newer P2Y12 inhibitors over clopidogrel for those undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention for acute coronary syndrome. It is unclear what impact these recommendations had on clinical practice. METHODS AND RESULTS: All percutaneous coronary intervention procedures (n=534 210) for acute coronary syndrome in England and Wales (April 1, 2010, to March 31, 2022) were retrospectively analyzed, stratified by choice of preprocedural P2Y12 inhibitor (clopidogrel, ticagrelor, and prasugrel). Multivariable logistic regression models were used to examine odds ratios of receipt of ticagrelor and prasugrel (versus clopidogrel) over time, and predictors of their receipt. Overall, there was a significant increase in receipt of newer P2Y12 inhibitors from 2010 to 2020 (2022 versus 2010: ticagrelor odds ratio, 8.12 [95% CI, 7.67-8.60]; prasugrel odds ratio, 6.14 [95% CI, 5.53-6.81]), more so in ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction than non-ST-segment-elevation acute coronary syndrome indication. The most significant increase in odds of receipt of prasugrel was observed between 2020 and 2022 (P<0.001), following a decline/plateau in its use in earlier years (2011-2019). In contrast, the odds of receipt of ticagrelor significantly increased in earlier years (2012-2017, Ptrend<0.001), after which the trend was stable (Ptrend=0.093). CONCLUSIONS: Over a 13-year-period, there has been a significant increase in use of newer P2Y12 inhibitors, although uptake of prasugrel use remained significantly lower than ticagrelor. Earlier society guidelines (pre-2017) were associated with the highest rates of ticagrelor use for non-ST-segment-elevation acute coronary syndrome and ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction cases while the ISAR-REACT 5 (Prospective, Randomized Trial of Ticagrelor Versus Prasugrel in Patients With Acute Coronary Syndrome) trial and later society guidelines were associated with higher prasugrel use, mainly for ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction indication.

Clinical and cost-effectiveness of telemedicine among patients with type 2 diabetes in primary care: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

AIMS: Telemedicine has been promoted as an effective way of managing type-2 diabetes (T2DM) in primary care. However, the effectiveness of telemedicine is unclear. We investigated the clinical and cost-effectiveness of different telemedicine interventions for people with T2DM, compared to usual care. METHODS: We searched Medline, Embase, Cochrane, CINHAL, ProQuest and EconLit for randomized controlled trials (RCTs) that examined the effectiveness of telemedicine interventions on clinical outcomes (HbA1c, body mass index [BMI], weight, diastolic blood pressure [DBP], systolic blood pressure [SBP], fasting blood glucose, high-density lipoprotein [HDL] cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein [LDL] cholesterol, total cholesterol and triglyceride) in adults with T2DM, published in English from inception until 31 December 2022. Meta-analyses were conducted using random-effects models pooling mean differences, heterogeneity was quantified using the I2 statistic. Publication bias was assessed using funnel plots, Egger tests and trim and fill. Subgroup analyses included type of telemedicine intervention, telemedicine mode of delivery and type of healthcare professionals. This study was registered with PROSPERO, CRD 42022375128. RESULTS: Of the 4093 records identified, 21 RCTs, 10,732 participants from seven regions, were included. Reported interventions included telephone (k = 16 studies), internet-based (k = 2), videoconference (k = 2) and telephone and emails (k = 1). We observed no statistically significant differences between synchronous or asynchronous telemedicine interventions compared to usual care for HbA1c (-0.08% (-0.88 mmol/mol); 95% CI: -0.18, 0.02), BMI (0.51 kg/m2; 95% CI: -0.21, 1.22), SBP (-1.48 mmHg; 95% CI: -3.22, 0.26), DBP (3.23 mmHg; 95% CI: -0.89, 7.34), HDL-cholesterol (0.01 mmol/L; 95% CI: -0.03, 0.05), LDL-cholesterol (0.08 mmol/L; 95% CI: -0.22, 0.37), triglycerides (-0.08 mmol/L, 95% CI: -0.31, -0.15), total cholesterol (-0.10 mmol/L; 95% CI: -0.25, 0.04) and weight (-0.50 kg; 95% CI: -1.21, 0.21). CONCLUSIONS: Telemedicine was as effective as usual care in improving health outcomes of people with T2DM. They can provide a safe solution in times of rising demands for primary healthcare services, or in extreme events, like a global pandemic. More high-quality RCTs are needed on the cost evaluation of telemedicine.

Indirect impact of the war in Ukraine on primary percutaneous coronary intervention for ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction in Poland.

INTRODUCTION: The Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 resulted in displacement of approximately 12.5 million refugees to adjacent countries, including Poland, which may have strained health care service delivery. OBJECTIVES: Using the ST­segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) data, we aimed to evaluate whether the Russian invasion of Ukraine has indirectly impacted delivery of acute cardiovascular care in Poland. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We analyzed all adult patients undergoing percutaneous coronary interventions (PCIs) for STEMI across Poland between February 25, 2017 and May 24, 2022. The investigated health care centers were allocated to regions below and over 100 km from the Polish-Ukrainian border. Mixed­effect generalized linear regression models with random effects per hospital were used to explore the associations between the war in Ukraine and several parameters, and whether these associations differed across the regions below and over 100 km from the border. RESULTS: A total of 90 115 procedures were included in the analysis. The average number of procedures per month was similar to the predicted volume for centers over 100 km from the border, while it was higher than expected (by an estimated median of 15 [interquartile range, 11-19]) for the region below 100 km from the border. There was no difference in adjusted fatality rate or quality of care outcomes for pre- and during­war time in both regions, with no evidence of a difference­in­difference across the regions. CONCLUSIONS: Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, there was only a modest and temporary increase in the number of primary PCIs, predominantly in the centers situated within 100 km of the Polish-Ukrainian border, although no significant impact on in­hospital fatality rate was found.

Locum doctor working and quality and safety: a qualitative study in English primary and secondary care.

BACKGROUND: The use of temporary doctors, known as locums, has been common practice for managing staffing shortages and maintaining service delivery internationally. However, there has been little empirical research on the implications of locum working for quality and safety. This study aimed to investigate the implications of locum working for quality and safety. METHODS: Qualitative semi-structured interviews and focus groups were conducted with 130 participants, including locums, patients, permanently employed doctors, nurses and other healthcare professionals with governance and recruitment responsibilities for locums across primary and secondary healthcare organisations in the English NHS. Data were collected between March 2021 and April 2022. Data were analysed using reflexive thematic analysis and abductive analysis. RESULTS: Participants described the implications of locum working for quality and safety across five themes: (1) 'familiarity' with an organisation and its patients and staff was essential to delivering safe care; (2) 'balance and stability' of services reliant on locums were seen as at risk of destabilisation and lacking leadership for quality improvement; (3) 'discrimination and exclusion' experienced by locums had negative implications for morale, retention and patient outcomes; (4) 'defensive practice' by locums as a result of perceptions of increased vulnerability and decreased support; (5) clinical governance arrangements, which often did not adequately cover locum doctors. CONCLUSION: Locum working and how locums were integrated into organisations posed some significant challenges and opportunities for patient safety and quality of care. Organisations should take stock of how they work with the locum workforce to improve not only quality and safety but also locum experience and retention.

Comparing the clinical practice and prescribing safety of locum and permanent doctors: observational study of primary care consultations in England.

BACKGROUND: Temporary doctors, known as locums, are a key component of the medical workforce in the NHS but evidence on differences in quality and safety between locum and permanent doctors is limited. We aimed to examine differences in the clinical practice, and prescribing safety for locum and permanent doctors working in primary care in England. METHODS: We accessed electronic health care records (EHRs) for 3.5 million patients from the CPRD GOLD database with linkage to Hospital Episode Statistics from 1st April 2010 to 31st March 2022. We used multi-level mixed effects logistic regression to compare consultations with locum and permanent GPs for several patient outcomes including general practice revisits; prescribing of antibiotics; strong opioids; hypnotics; A&E visits; emergency hospital admissions; admissions for ambulatory care sensitive conditions; test ordering; referrals; and prescribing safety indicators while controlling for patient and practice characteristics. RESULTS: Consultations with locum GPs were 22% more likely to involve a prescription for an antibiotic (OR = 1.22 (1.21 to 1.22)), 8% more likely to involve a prescription for a strong opioid (OR = 1.08 (1.06 to 1.09)), 4% more likely to be followed by an A&E visit on the same day (OR = 1.04 (1.01 to 1.08)) and 5% more likely to be followed by an A&E visit within 1 to 7 days (OR = 1.05 (1.02 to 1.08)). Consultations with a locum were 12% less likely to lead to a practice revisit within 7 days (OR = 0.88 (0.87 to 0.88)), 4% less likely to involve a prescription for a hypnotic (OR = 0.96 (0.94 to 0.98)), 15% less likely to involve a referral (OR = 0.85 (0.84 to 0.86)) and 19% less likely to involve a test (OR = 0.81 (0.80 to 0.82)). We found no evidence that emergency admissions, ACSC admissions and eight out of the eleven prescribing safety indicators were different if patients were seen by a locum or a permanent GP. CONCLUSIONS: Despite existing concerns, the clinical practice and performance of locum GPs did not appear to be systematically different from that of permanent GPs. The practice and performance of both locum and permanent GPs is likely shaped by the organisational setting and systems within which they work.

Sex-based analysis of NSTEMI processes of care and outcomes by hospital: a nationwide cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Contemporary studies demonstrate that non-ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI) processes of care vary according to sex. Little is known regarding variation in practice between geographical areas and centers. METHODS: We identified 305 014 NSTEMI admissions in the United Kingdom (UK) Myocardial Infarction National Audit Project (MINAP), 2010-2017, including female sex (110 209). Hierarchical, multivariate logistic regression models were fitted assessing for differences in primary outcomes according to sex. Risk standardized mortality rates (RSMR) were calculated for individual hospitals to illustrate correlation with variables of interest. 'Heat-maps' were plotted to show regional and sex-based variation in opportunity-based quality-indicator score (surrogate for optimal processes of care). RESULTS: Women presented older (77y vs. 69y, P < 0.001) and were more often Caucasian (93% vs. 91%, P < 0.001). Women were less frequently managed with an invasive coronary angiogram (ICA) (58% vs. 75%, P < 0.001) or percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) (35% vs. 49%, P < 0.001)). In our hospital-clustered analysis, we show positive correlation between the RSMR and increasing proportion of women treated for NSTEMI (R2 = 0.17, P < 0.001). There was clear negative correlation between proportion of women who had an optimum OBQI score during their admission and RSMR (R2 = 0.22, P < 0.001), with weaker correlation in men (R2 = 0.08, P < 0.001). Heat-maps according to clinical commissioning group (CCG) demonstrate significant regional variation in OBQI score, with women receiving poorer quality care throughout the UK. CONLUSION: There was a significant in variation of the management of patients with NSTEMI according to sex, with widespread geographical variation. Structural changes are required to enable improved care for women.

Trends in full-time working in general practice: repeated cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: There is little evidence and no agreement on what constitutes full-time working for general practitioners (GPs). This is essential for workforce planning, resource allocation and accurately describing GP activity. AIM: To clarify the definition of full-time working for general practitioners, how this has changed over time and whether these changes are explained by GP demographics. DESIGN AND SETTING: Repeated cross-sectional national surveys between 2010 and 2021. METHOD: Comparison of three measures of working time commitments (hours and sessions per week and hours per session) plus a measure of workload intensity across survey years. Multiple regression to adjust the changes over time for age, sex, ethnicity, contract type, area deprivation, and rurality. Unadjusted hours and sessions per week were compared to definitions of full-time working. RESULTS: Average hours and sessions per week reduced from 40.5 (95% CI: 38.5, 42.5) to 38.0 (36.3, 39.6) and 7.3 (7.2, 7.3) to 6.2 (6.2, 6.3) respectively between 2010 and 2021. In 2021, 54.6% of GPs worked at least 37.5 hours per week and 9.5% worked at least 9 sessions. Hours per session increased from 5.7 (5.7, 5.7) to 6.2 (6.2, 6.3) between 2010 and 2021. Partners worked more hours, sessions and hours per session. Adjustments increased the increase in hours per session from 0.54 to 0.61. CONCLUSION: At the current average duration of sessions, six sessions per week aligns with the NHS definition of full-time hours. However, hours per week is a more consistent way to define full-time work for GPs.

Risk of Falls and Fractures in Individuals With Cataract, Age-Related Macular Degeneration, or Glaucoma.

Importance: Three leading disease causes of age-related visual loss are cataract, age-related macular degeneration (AMD), and glaucoma. Although all 3 eye diseases have been implicated with falls and fracture risk, evidence is mixed, with the contribution of different eye diseases being uncertain. Objective: To examine whether people with cataract, AMD, or glaucoma have higher risks of falls or fractures than those without. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study was a population-based study in England using routinely collected electronic health records from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) GOLD and Aurum primary care databases with linked hospitalization and mortality records from 2007 to 2020. Participants were people with cataract, AMD, or glaucoma matched to comparators (1:5) by age, sex, and general practice. Data were analyzed from May 2021 to June 2023. Exposures: For each eye disease, we estimated the risk of falls or fractures using separate multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression models. Main Outcomes: Two primary outcomes were incident falls and incident fractures derived from general practice, hospital, and mortality records. Secondary outcomes were incident fractures of specific body sites. Results: A total of 410 476 people with cataract, 75 622 with AMD, and 90 177 with glaucoma were matched (1:5) to 2 034 194 (no cataract), 375 548 (no AMD), and 448 179 (no glaucoma) comparators. The mean (SD) age was 73.8 (11.0) years, 79.4 (9.4) years, and 69.8 (13.1) years for participants with cataract, AMD, or glaucoma, respectively. Compared with comparators, there was an increased risk of falls in those with cataract (adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 1.36; 95% CI, 1.35-1.38), AMD (HR, 1.25; 95% CI, 1.23-1.27), and glaucoma (HR, 1.38; 95% CI, 1.35-1.41). Likewise for fractures, there were increased risks in all eye diseases, with an HR of 1.28 (95% CI, 1.27-1.30) in the cataract cohort, an HR of 1.18 (95% CI, 1.15-1.21) for AMD, and an HR of 1.31 (95% CI, 1.27-1.35) for glaucoma. Site-specific fracture analyses revealed increases in almost all body sites (including hip, spine, forearm, skull or facial bones, pelvis, ribs or sternum, and lower leg fractures) compared with matched comparators. Conclusions and Relevance: The results of this study support recognition that people with 1 or more of these eye diseases are at increased risk of both falls and fractures. They may benefit from improved advice, access, and referrals to falls prevention services.

Oral anticoagulant prescribing among patients with cancer and atrial fibrillation in England, 2009-2019.

BACKGROUND: Anticoagulation of patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) and cancer is challenging because of their high risk for stroke and bleeding. Little is known of the variations of oral anticoagulant (OAC) prescribing in patients with AF with and without cancer. METHODS: Patients with first-time AF during 2009-2019 from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink were included. Cancer diagnosis was defined as a history of breast, prostate, colorectal, lung, or hematological cancer. Competing-risk analysis was used to assess the risk of OAC prescribing in patients with AF and cancer adjusted for clinical and sociodemographic factors. RESULTS: Of 177,065 patients with AF, 11.7% had cancer. Compared to patients without cancer, patients with cancer were less likely to receive OAC: prostate cancer (subhazard ratio [SHR], 0.95; 95% CI, 0.91-0.99), breast cancer (SHR, 0.93; 95% CI, 0.89-0.98), colorectal cancer (SHR, 0.93; 95% CI, 0.88-0.99), hematological cancer (SHR, 0.70; 95% CI, 0.65-0.75), and lung cancer (SHR, 0.44; 95% CI, 0.38-0.50). The cumulative incidence function (CIF) of OAC prescribing was lowest for patients with lung cancer and hematological cancer compared with patients without cancer. The difference between the CIF of OAC prescribing in patients with and without cancer becomes narrower in the most deprived areas. Elderly patients (aged ≥85 years) overall had the lowest CIF of OAC prescribing regardless of cancer status. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with AF, underprescribing of OAC is independently associated with certain cancer types. Patients with hematological and lung cancer are the least likely to receive anticoagulation therapy compared with patients without cancer. Underprescribing of OAC in cancer is linked to old age. Further studies of patients with AF and cancer are warranted to assess the net clinical benefit of anticoagulation in certain cancer types.

Predicting target lesion failure following percutaneous coronary intervention through machine learning risk assessment models.

Aims: Central to the practice of precision medicine in percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) is a risk-stratification tool to predict outcomes following the procedure. This study is intended to assess machine learning (ML)-based risk models to predict clinically relevant outcomes in PCI and to support individualized clinical decision-making in this setting. Methods and results: Five different ML models [gradient boosting classifier (GBC), linear discrimination analysis, Naïve Bayes, logistic regression, and K-nearest neighbours algorithm) for the prediction of 1-year target lesion failure (TLF) were trained on an extensive data set of 35 389 patients undergoing PCI and enrolled in the global, all-comers e-ULTIMASTER registry. The data set was split into a training (80%) and a test set (20%). Twenty-three patient and procedural characteristics were used as predictive variables. The models were compared for discrimination according to the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and for calibration. The GBC model showed the best discriminative ability with an AUC of 0.72 (95% confidence interval 0.69-0.75) for 1-year TLF on the test set. The discriminative ability of the GBC model for the components of TLF was highest for cardiac death with an AUC of 0.82, followed by target vessel myocardial infarction with an AUC of 0.75 and clinically driven target lesion revascularization with an AUC of 0.68. The calibration was fair until the highest risk deciles showed an underestimation of the risk. Conclusion: Machine learning-derived predictive models provide a reasonably accurate prediction of 1-year TLF in patients undergoing PCI. A prospective evaluation of the predictive score is warranted. Registration: Clinicaltrial.gov identifier is NCT02188355.

Comorbidity clusters and in-hospital outcomes in patients admitted with acute myocardial infarction in the USA: A national population-based study.

BACKGROUND: The prevalence of multimorbidity in patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) is increasing. It is unclear whether comorbidities cluster into distinct phenogroups and whether are associated with clinical trajectories. METHODS: Survey-weighted analysis of the United States Nationwide Inpatient Sample (NIS) for patients admitted with a primary diagnosis of AMI in 2018. In-hospital outcomes included mortality, stroke, bleeding, and coronary revascularisation. Latent class analysis of 21 chronic conditions was used to identify comorbidity classes. Multivariable logistic and linear regressions were fitted for associations between comorbidity classes and outcomes. RESULTS: Among 416,655 AMI admissions included in the analysis, mean (±SD) age was 67 (±13) years, 38% were females, and 76% White ethnicity. Overall, hypertension, coronary heart disease (CHD), dyslipidaemia, and diabetes were common comorbidities, but each of the identified five classes (C) included ≥1 predominant comorbidities defining distinct phenogroups: cancer/coagulopathy/liver disease class (C1); least burdened (C2); CHD/dyslipidaemia (largest/referent group, (C3)); pulmonary/valvular/peripheral vascular disease (C4); diabetes/kidney disease/heart failure class (C5). Odds ratio (95% confidence interval [CI]) for mortality ranged between 2.11 (1.89-2.37) in C2 to 5.57 (4.99-6.21) in C1. For major bleeding, OR for C1 was 4.48 (3.78; 5.31); for acute stroke, ORs ranged between 0.75 (0.60; 0.94) in C2 to 2.76 (2.27; 3.35) in C1; for coronary revascularization, ORs ranged between 0.34 (0.32; 0.36) in C1 to 1.41 (1.30; 1.53) in C4. CONCLUSIONS: We identified distinct comorbidity phenogroups that predicted in-hospital outcomes in patients admitted with AMI. Some conditions overlapped across classes, driven by the high comorbidity burden. Our findings demonstrate the predictive value and potential clinical utility of identifying patients with AMI with specific comorbidity clustering.

A population-based study exploring phenotypic clusters and clinical outcomes in stroke using unsupervised machine learning approach.

Individuals developing stroke have varying clinical characteristics, demographic, and biochemical profiles. This heterogeneity in phenotypic characteristics can impact on cardiovascular disease (CVD) morbidity and mortality outcomes. This study uses a novel clustering approach to stratify individuals with incident stroke into phenotypic clusters and evaluates the differential burden of recurrent stroke and other cardiovascular outcomes. We used linked clinical data from primary care, hospitalisations, and death records in the UK. A data-driven clustering analysis (kamila algorithm) was used in 48,114 patients aged ≥ 18 years with incident stroke, from 1-Jan-1998 to 31-Dec-2017 and no prior history of serious vascular events. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) for subsequent adverse outcomes, for each of the generated clusters. Adverse outcomes included coronary heart disease (CHD), recurrent stroke, peripheral vascular disease (PVD), heart failure, CVD-related and all-cause mortality. Four distinct phenotypes with varying underlying clinical characteristics were identified in patients with incident stroke. Compared with cluster 1 (n = 5,201, 10.8%), the risk of composite recurrent stroke and CVD-related mortality was higher in the other 3 clusters (cluster 2 [n = 18,655, 38.8%]: hazard ratio [HR], 1.07; 95% CI, 1.02-1.12; cluster 3 [n = 10,244, 21.3%]: HR, 1.20; 95% CI, 1.14-1.26; and cluster 4 [n = 14,014, 29.1%]: HR, 1.44; 95% CI: 1.37-1.50). Similar trends in risk were observed for composite recurrent stroke and all-cause mortality outcome, and subsequent recurrent stroke outcome. However, results were not consistent for subsequent risk in CHD, PVD, heart failure, CVD-related mortality, and all-cause mortality. In this proof of principle study, we demonstrated how a heterogenous population of patients with incident stroke can be stratified into four relatively homogenous phenotypes with differential risk of recurrent and major cardiovascular outcomes. This offers an opportunity to revisit the stratification of care for patients with incident stroke to improve patient outcomes.

Changes to healthcare utilisation and symptoms for common mental health problems over the first 21 months of the COVID-19 pandemic: parallel analyses of electronic health records and survey data in England.

Background: Few studies have investigated the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on mental health beyond 2020. This study quantifies changes to healthcare utilisation and symptoms for common mental health problems over the pandemic's first 21 months. Methods: Parallel cohort studies using primary care database and survey data for adults (≥16 years) in England from January 2015 to December 2021: 16,551,842 from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) and 40,699 from the UK Household Longitudinal Survey (UKHLS). Interrupted time-series models estimated changes in monthly prevalence of presentations and prescribed medications for anxiety and depression (CPRD); and self-reported psychological distress (UKHLS). The pandemic period was divided into five phases: 1st Wave (April-May 2020); post-1st Wave (June-September 2020); 2nd Wave (October 2020-February 2021); post 2nd Wave (March-May 2021); 3rd Wave (June-December 2021). Findings: Primary care presentations for depression or anxiety dropped during the first wave (4.6 fewer monthly appointments per 1000 patients, 4.4-4.8) and remained lower than expected throughout follow-up. Self-reported psychological distress exceeded expected levels during the first (Prevalence Ratio = 1.378, 95% CI 1.289-1.459) and second waves (PR = 1.285, 1.189-1.377), returning towards expected levels during the third wave (PR = 1.038, 0.929-1.154). Increases in psychological distress and declines in presentations were greater for women. The decrease in primary care presentations for depression and anxiety exceeded that for physical health conditions (rheumatoid arthritis, diabetes, urinary tract infections). Anxiety and depression prescriptions returned to pre-pandemic levels during the second wave due to increased repeat prescriptions. Interpretation: Despite periods of distress during the pandemic, we did not find an enduring effect on common mental health problems. The fall in primary care presentations for anxiety or depression suggests changing healthcare utilisation for mental distress and a potential treatment gap. Funding: National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR).