Developing and externally validating multinomial prediction models for methotrexate treatment outcomes in patients with rheumatoid arthritis: results from an international collaboration.

OBJECTIVES: In rheumatology, there is a clinical need to identify patients at high risk (>50%) of not responding to the first-line therapy methotrexate (MTX) due to lack of disease control or discontinuation due to adverse events (AEs). Despite this need, previous prediction models in this context are at high risk of bias and ignore AEs. Our objectives were to (i) develop a multinomial model for outcomes of low disease activity and discontinuing due to AEs 6 months after starting MTX, (ii) update prognosis 3-month following treatment initiation, and (iii) externally validate these models. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: A multinomial model for low disease activity (submodel 1) and discontinuing due to AEs (submodel 2) was developed using data from the UK Rheumatoid Arthritis Medication Study, updated using landmarking analysis, internally validated using bootstrapping, and externally validated in the Norwegian Disease-Modifying Antirheumatic Drug register. Performance was assessed using calibration (calibration-slope and calibration-in-the-large), and discrimination (concordance-statistic and polytomous discriminatory index). RESULTS: The internally validated model showed good calibration in the development setting with a calibration-slope of 1.01 (0.87, 1.14) (submodel 1) and 0.83 (0.30, 1.34) (submodel 2), and moderate discrimination with a c-statistic of 0.72 (0.69, 0.74) and 0.53 (0.48, 0.59), respectively. Predictive performance decreased after external validation (calibration-slope 0.78 (0.64, 0.93) (submodel 1) and 0.86 (0.34, 1.38) (submodel 2)), which may be due to differences in disease-specific characteristics and outcome prevalence. CONCLUSION: We addressed previously identified methodological limitations of prediction models for outcomes of MTX therapy. The multinomial approach predicted outcomes of disease activity more accurately than AEs, which should be addressed in future work to aid implementation into clinical practice.

Oral glucocorticoid use in patients with rheumatoid arthritis initiating TNF-inhibitors, tocilizumab or abatacept: Results from the international TOCERRA and PANABA observational collaborative studies.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate and compare the use of oral glucocorticoids with three classes of bDMARDs in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA). METHODS: We included patients from 13 observational registries treated with a TNF-inhibitor, abatacept or tocilizumab and with available information on the use of oral glucocorticoids. The main outcome was oral glucocorticoid withdrawal. A McNemar test was used to analyse the change in the use of glucocorticoids after 1 year. Kaplan-Meier estimates and Cox regressions, adjusted for patient, treatment, and disease characteristics, were used to evaluate glucocorticoid discontinuation in patients with glucocorticoids at baseline. Because of heterogeneity, analyses were done by registers and pooled using random-effects meta-analysis. RESULTS: A total of 12,334 participants treated with TNF-inhibitors, 2100 with tocilizumab and 3229 with abatacept were included. At one-year, oral glucocorticoid use decreased in all treatment groups (odds ratio for stopping vs. starting of 2.19 [95% CI 1.58; 3.04] for TNF-inhibitors, 2.46 [1.39; 4.35] for tocilizumab; 1.73 [1.25; 2.21] for abatacept). Median time to glucocorticoid withdrawal was ≈2 years or more in most countries, with a gradual decrease over time. Compared to TNF-inhibitors, crude hazard ratios of glucocorticoid discontinuation were 0.65[0.48-0.87] for abatacept, and 1.04 [0.76-1.43] for tocilizumab, and adjusted hazard ratios were 1.1 [0.83-1.47] for abatacept, and 1.30 [0.96-1.78] for tocilizumab. CONCLUSION: After initiation of a bDMARD, glucocorticoid use decreased similarly in all treatment groups. However, glucocorticoid withdrawal was much slower than advocated by current international guidelines. More effort should be devoted to glucocorticoid tapering when low disease activity is achieved.

Follow-Up of Patients With Axial Spondyloarthritis in Specialist Health Care With Remote Monitoring and Self-Monitoring Compared With Regular Face-to-Face Follow-Up Visits (the ReMonit Study): Protocol for a Randomized, Controlled Open-Label Noninferiority Trial.

BACKGROUND: Patients with chronic inflammatory joint diseases such as axial spondyloarthritis have traditionally received regular follow-up in specialist health care to maintain low disease activity. The follow-up has been organized as prescheduled face-to-face visits, which are time-consuming for both patients and health care professionals. Technology has enabled the remote monitoring of disease activity, allowing patients to self-monitor their disease and contact health care professionals when needed. Remote monitoring or self-monitoring may provide a more personalized follow-up, but there is limited research on how these follow-up strategies perform in maintaining low disease activity, patient satisfaction, safety, and cost-effectiveness. OBJECTIVE: The Remote Monitoring in Axial Spondyloarthritis (ReMonit) study aimed to assess the effectiveness of digital remote monitoring and self-monitoring in maintaining low disease activity in patients with axial spondyloarthritis. METHODS: The ReMonit study is a 3-armed, single-site, randomized, controlled, open-label noninferiority trial including patients with axial spondyloarthritis with low disease activity (Ankylosing Spondylitis Disease Activity Score <2.1) and on stable treatment with a tumor necrosis factor inhibitor. Participants were randomized 1:1:1 to arm A (usual care, face-to-face visits every sixth month), arm B (remote monitoring, monthly digital registration of patient-reported outcomes), or arm C (patient-initiated care, self-monitoring, no planned visits during the study period). The primary end point was disease activity measured with the Ankylosing Spondylitis Disease Activity Score, evaluated at 6, 12, and 18 months. We aimed to include 240 patients, 80 in each arm. Secondary end points included other measures of disease activity, patient satisfaction, safety, and cost-effectiveness. RESULTS: The project is funded by the South-Eastern Norway Regional Health Authority and Centre for the treatment of Rheumatic and Musculoskeletal Diseases (REMEDY), Diakonhjemmet Hospital, Norway. Enrollment started in September 2021 and was completed with 242 patients by June 2022. The data collection will be completed in December 2023. CONCLUSIONS: To our knowledge, this trial will be among the first to evaluate the effectiveness, safety, and cost-effectiveness of remote digital monitoring and self-monitoring of patients with axial spondyloarthritis compared with usual care. Hence, the ReMonit study will contribute important knowledge to personalized follow-up strategies for patients with axial spondyloarthritis. These results may also be relevant for other patient groups with inflammatory joint diseases. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT05031767; hpps://www.clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT05031767. INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID): DERR1-10.2196/52872.

Commonalities and differences in set-up and data collection across European spondyloarthritis registries - results from the EuroSpA collaboration.

BACKGROUND: In European axial spondyloarthritis (axSpA) and psoriatic arthritis (PsA) clinical registries, we aimed to investigate commonalities and differences in (1) set-up, clinical data collection; (2) data availability and completeness; and (3) wording, recall period, and scale used for selected patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs). METHODS: Data was obtained as part of the EuroSpA Research Collaboration Network and consisted of (1) an online survey and follow-up interview, (2) upload of real-world data, and (3) selected PROMs included in the online survey. RESULTS: Fifteen registries participated, contributing 33,948 patients (axSpA: 21,330 (63%), PsA: 12,618 (37%)). The reported coverage of eligible patients ranged from 0.5 to 100%. Information on age, sex, biological/targeted synthetic disease-modifying anti-rheumatic drug treatment, disease duration, and C-reactive protein was available in all registries with data completeness between 85% and 100%. All PROMs (Bath Ankylosing Spondylitis Disease Activity and Functional Indices, Health Assessment Questionnaire, and patient global, pain and fatigue assessments) were more complete after 2015 (68-86%) compared to prior (50-79%). Patient global, pain and fatigue assessments showed heterogeneity between registries in terms of wording, recall periods, and scale. CONCLUSION: Important heterogeneity in registry design and data collection across fifteen European axSpA and PsA registries was observed. Several core measures were widely available, and an increase in data completeness of PROMs in recent years was identified. This study might serve as a basis for examining how differences in data collection across registries may impact the results of collaborative research in the future.

Discontinuation rate of sulfasalazine, leflunomide and methotrexate due to adverse events in a real-life setting (NOR-DMARD).

Objectives: MTX, LEF and SSZ are conventional synthetic DMARDs (csDMARDs) with a well-established role in the treatment of RA. We aimed to estimate and compare the relative risks for adverse events (AEs) and the discontinuation of these drugs owing to AEs. Methods: We included all 3339 patients from the NOR-DMARD study treated with MTX, LEF or SSZ in monotherapy. All reported AEs were compared between treatment groups using quasi-Poisson regression. In addition, drug retention rates were analysed using Kaplan-Meier estimates with Cox regression to control for possible confounders. We analysed drug retention rates and cumulative risk of discontinuation attributable to AEs using the Kaplan-Meier estimator. We assessed age, sex, baseline DAS in 28 joints with ESR (DAS28-ESR), seropositivity, prednisolone use, previous DMARD use, year of inclusion and co-morbidity as possible cofounders. Results: We found that the discontinuation rate attributable to AEs was significantly higher for LEF and SSZ than for MTX. After the first year, it was 13.7% (95% CI 12.2, 15.2), 39.6% (95% CI 34.8, 44) and 43.4% (95% CI 38.2, 48.1) for MTX, SSZ and LEF, respectively. Similar results were found when adjusting for confounders. The overall AEs were comparable across the treatment groups. The AE profile was as expected for each drug. Conclusion: Our work has shown a similar AE profile of csDMARDs to previous data. However, higher discontinuation rates for SSZ and LEF cannot be explained easily from AE profiles.

How does current disease activity in rheumatoid arthritis affect the short-term risk of acute coronary syndrome? A clinical register based study from Sweden and Norway.

OBJECTIVES: To estimate short-term risks of acute coronary syndrome (ACS) in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) as a function of current RA disease activity including remission. METHODS: Data from clinical visits of RA patients in Sweden (SE) and Norway (NO) between January 1st 2012 until December 31st 2020 were used. At each visit, patient's disease activity was assessed including remission status (measured with several metrics). Through linkage to national health and death registers, patients were followed up for incident ACS up to six months from each visit. We compared the short-term risk of ACS in patients not in remission vs. in remission using Cox regression analyses with robust standard errors, adjusted for country and covariates (e.g., age, sex, prednisolone use, comorbidities). We also explored disease activity categories as exposure. RESULTS: We included 212,493 visits (10,444 from Norway and 202,049 from Sweden) among 41,250 patients (72% women, mean age at visit 62 years). During the 6-month follow-ups, we observed 524 incident ACS events. Compared to patients in remission, patients currently not in remission had an increased rate of ACS: adjusted hazard ratio (95% confidence interval) 1.52 (1.24-1.85) with DAS28 metric. The crude absolute six-month risks were 0.2% for patients in remission vs. 0.4% for patients with DAS28 high disease activity. The use of alternative RA disease activity and remission metrics provided similar results. CONCLUSION: Failure to reach remission is associated with elevated short-term risks of ACS, underscoring the need for CV risk factor optimization in these patients.

Treatment Response to Tumor Necrosis Factor Inhibitors and Methotrexate Monotherapy in Adults With Juvenile Idiopathic Arthritis: Data From NOR-DMARD.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the effectiveness of tumor necrosis factor inhibitors (TNFi) ± comedication and methotrexate (MTX) monotherapy between patients with adult juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA) and patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA). METHODS: Adult patients with JIA and RA were identified from the Norwegian Antirheumatic Drug Register (NOR-DMARD) register. Disease activity measurements at baseline, 3, 6, and 12 months were compared between patients with JIA and RA starting (1) TNFi and (2) MTX monotherapy, using age- and gender-weighted analyses. We calculated differences between JIA and RA in mean changes in Disease Activity Score in 28 joints (DAS28), Clinical Disease Activity Index (CDAI), and Simplified Disease Activity Index (SDAI), among other disease activity measures. DAS28, CDAI, SDAI, and American College of Rheumatology (ACR)/European Alliance of Associations for Rheumatology (EULAR) remission rates at 3, 6, and 12 months, as well as 6- and 12-month Lund Efficacy Index (LUNDEX)-corrected rates, were calculated. RESULTS: We identified 478 patients with JIA (TNFi/MTX monotherapy, n = 358/120) and 4637 patients with RA (TNFi/MTX monotherapy, n = 2292/2345). Patients with JIA had lower baseline disease activity compared to patients with RA across treatment groups. After baseline disease activity adjustment, there were no significant differences in disease activity change from baseline to 3, 6, and 12-months of follow-up between patients with JIA and RA for either treatment group. Twelve-month remission rates were similar between groups based on DAS28 (TNFi: JIA 55.2%, RA 49.5%; MTX monotherapy: JIA 45.3%, RA 41.2%) and ACR/EULAR remission criteria (TNFi: JIA 20.4%, RA 20%; MTX monotherapy: JIA 17%, RA 12.7%). Median drug survival (yrs) was similar for JIA and RA in both treatment groups (TNFi: JIA 1.2, RA 1.4; MTX monotherapy: JIA 1.3, RA 1.6). CONCLUSION: TNFi and MTX monotherapy are effective in adult JIA, with similar effectiveness to that shown in RA.

Predictors of ASDAS-CRP inactive disease in axial spondyloarthritis during treatment with TNF-inhibitors: Data from the EuroSpA collaboration.

OBJECTIVES: In patients with axial spondyloarthritis (axSpA) initiating their first tumor necrosis factor alpha-inhibitor (TNFi), we aimed to identify common baseline predictors of Ankylosing Spondylitis Disease Activity Score (ASDAS-CRP) inactive disease (primary objective) and clinically important improvement (CII) at 6 months, and drug retention at 12-months across 15 European registries. METHODS: Baseline demographic and clinical characteristics were collected. Outcomes were investigated per registry and in pooled data using logistic regression analyses on multiply imputed data. RESULTS: The consistency of baseline predictors in individual registries justified pooling the data. In the pooled dataset (n = 21,196), the 6-month rates for ASDAS inactive disease and ASDAS CII were 26% and 51%, and the 12-month drug retention rate 65% in patients with available data (n = 9,845, n = 6,948 and n = 21,196, respectively). Nine common baseline predictors of ASDAS inactive disease, ASDAS CII and 12-month drug retention were identified, and the odds ratios (95%-confidence interval) for ASDAS inactive disease were: age, per year: 0.97 (0.97-0.98), men vs. women: 1.88 (1.60-2.22), current vs. non-smoking: 0.76 (0.63-0.91), HLA-B27 positive vs. negative: 1.51 (1.20-1.91), TNF start year 2015-2018 vs. 2009-2014: 1.24 (1.06-1.45), CRP>10 vs. ≤10 mg/l: 1.49 (1.25-1.77), one unit increase in health assessment questionnaire (HAQ): 0.77 (0.58-1.03), one-millimeter (mm) increase in Bath Ankylosing Spondylitis Disease Activity Index (BASDAI) fatigue and spinal pain: 0.99 (0.99-1.00) and 0.99 (0.99-1.99), respectively CONCLUSION: Common baseline predictors of treatment response and adherence to TNFi could be identified across data from 15 European registries, indicating that they may be universal across different axSpA populations.

Real-World Six- and Twelve-Month Drug Retention, Remission, and Response Rates of Secukinumab in 2,017 Patients With Psoriatic Arthritis in Thirteen European Countries.

OBJECTIVE: There is a lack of real-life studies on interleukin-17 (IL-17) inhibition in psoriatic arthritis (PsA). We assessed real-life 6- and 12-month effectiveness (i.e., retention, remission, low disease activity [LDA], and response rates) of the IL-17 inhibitor secukinumab in PsA patients overall and across 1) number of prior biologic/targeted synthetic disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (b/tsDMARDs), 2) years since diagnosis, and 3) European registries. METHODS: Thirteen quality registries in rheumatology participating in the European Spondyloarthritis Research Collaboration Network provided longitudinal, observational data collected as part of routine care for secondary use. Data were pooled and analyzed with Kaplan-Meier plots, log rank tests, Cox regression, and multiple linear and logistic regression analyses. RESULTS: A total of 2,017 PsA patients started treatment with secukinumab between 2015 and 2018. Overall secukinumab retention rates were 86% and 76% after 6 and 12 months, respectively. Crude (LUNDEX adjusted) 6-month remission/LDA (LDA including remission) rates for the 28-joint Disease Activity Index for Psoriatic Arthritis, the Disease Activity Score in 28 joints using the C-reactive protein level, and the Simplified Disease Activity Index (SDAI) were 13%/46% (11%/39%), 36%/55% (30%/46%), and 13%/56% (11%/47%), and 12-month rates were 11%/46% (7%/31%), 39%/56% (26%/38%), and 16%/62% (10%/41%), respectively. Clinical Disease Activity Index remission/LDA rates were similar to the SDAI rates. Six-month American College of Rheumatology 20%/50%/70% improvement criteria responses were 34%/19%/11% (29%/16%/9%); 12-month rates were 37%/21%/11% (24%/14%/7%). Secukinumab effectiveness was significantly better for b/tsDMARD-naive patients, similar across time since diagnosis (<2/2-4/>4 years), and varied significantly across the European registries. CONCLUSION: In this large real-world study on secukinumab treatment in PsA, 6- and 12-month effectiveness was comparable to that in previous observational studies of tumor necrosis factor inhibitors. Retention, remission, LDA, and response rates were significantly better for b/tsDMARD-naive patients, were independent of time since diagnosis, and varied significantly across the European countries.

Effectiveness of a Second Biologic After Failure of a Non-tumor Necrosis Factor Inhibitor As First Biologic in Rheumatoid Arthritis.

OBJECTIVE: In rheumatoid arthritis (RA), evidence regarding the effectiveness of a second biologic disease-modifying antirheumatic drug (bDMARD) in patients whose first-ever bDMARD was a non-tumor necrosis factor inhibitor (TNFi) bDMARD is limited. The objective of this study was therefore to assess the outcome of a second bDMARD (non-TNFi: rituximab [RTX], abatacept [ABA], or tocilizumab [TCZ], separately; and TNFi) after failure of a non-TNFi bDMARD as first bDMARD. METHODS: We identified patients with RA from the 5 Nordic biologics registers who started treatment with a non-TNFi as first-ever bDMARD but switched to a second bDMARD. For the second bDMARD, we assessed drug survival (at 6 and 12 months) and primary response (at 6 months). RESULTS: We included 620 patients starting a second bDMARD (ABA 86, RTX 40, TCZ 67, and TNFi 427) following failure of a first non-TNFi bDMARD. At 6 and 12 months after start of their second bDMARD, approximately 70% and 60%, respectively, remained on treatment, and at 6 months, less than one-third of patients were still on their second bDMARD and had reached low disease activity or remission according to the Disease Activity Score in 28 joints. For those patients whose second bMDARD was a TNFi, the corresponding proportion was slightly higher (40%). CONCLUSION: The drug survival and primary response of a second bDMARD in patients with RA switching due to failure of a non-TNFi bDMARD as first bDMARD is modest. Some patients may benefit from TNFi when used after failure of a non-TNFi as first bDMARD.

Inflammatory hallmarks of lesser prominence in psoriatic arthritis patients starting biologics: a Nordic population-based cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: To assess secular trends in baseline characteristics of PsA patients initiating their first or subsequent biologic DMARD (bDMARD) therapy and to explore prescription patterns and treatment rates of bDMARDs from 2006 to 2017 in the Nordic countries. METHODS: PsA patients registered in the Nordic rheumatology registries initiating any treatment with bDMARDs were identified. The bDMARDs were grouped as original TNF inhibitor [TNFi; adalimumab (ADA), etanercept (ETN) and infliximab (IFX)]; certolizumab pegol (CZP) and golimumab (GOL); biosimilars and ustekinumab, based on the date of release. Baseline characteristics were compared for the five countries, supplemented by secular trends with R2 calculations and point prevalence of bDMARD treatment. RESULTS: A total of 18 089 patients were identified (Denmark, 4361; Iceland, 449; Norway, 1948; Finland, 1069; Sweden, 10 262). A total of 54% of the patients were female, 34.3% of patients initiated an original TNFi, 8% CZP and GOL, 7.5% biosimilars and 0.3% ustekinumab as a first-line bDMARD. Subsequent bDMARDs were 25.2% original TNFi, 9% CZP and GOL, 12% biosimilars and 2.1% ustekinumab. From 2015 through 2017 there was a rapid uptake of biosimilars. The total of first-line bDMARD initiators with lower disease activity increased from 2006 to 2017, where an R2 close to 1 showed a strong association. CONCLUSION: Across the Nordic countries, the number of prescribed bDMARDs increased from 2006 to 2017, indicating a previously unmet need for bDMARDs in the PsA population. In recent years, PsA patients have initiated bDMARDs with lower disease activity compared with previous years, suggesting that bDMARDs are initiated in patients with a less active inflammatory phenotype.

Does Older Age have an Impact on Rituximab Efficacy and Safety? Results from the NOR-DMARD Register.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to compare the efficacy and safety of rituximab in older vs younger patients with rheumatoid arthritis. METHODS: Data on 367 patients with rheumatoid arthritis treated with rituximab in the Norwegian Disease-Modifying Antirheumatic Drug (NOR-DMARD) register were analysed, comparing patients aged ≥ 65 years (n = 91) with patients aged < 65 years (n = 276). Drug survival was compared using a Kaplan-Meier analysis and Cox proportional hazard models. Disease activity, as assessed by the Disease Activity Score based on 28 joints and erythrocyte sedimentation rate (DAS28-ESR) and the Simplified Disease Activity Index, was analysed with linear mixed models. The occurrence of adverse events was analysed by quasi-Poisson regression models. RESULTS: Drug survival was similar in the two age groups. The proportion of patients who remained taking rituximab over 2 years was 72% in those under aged 65 years vs 74% in those aged ≥ 65 years. No statistically significant association with age was found for drug survival in either the unadjusted (hazard ratio 1.13, p = 0.65) or adjusted Cox proportional hazard analyses for the model with DAS28-ESR as a confounder (effect size 1.11, p = 0.73). Models including the Simplified Disease Activity Index instead of DAS28-ESR yielded similar results. Age was furthermore not significantly associated with disease activity over time, although there was a tendency towards a poorer response in older patients. In the older age group, there was a higher incidence of pneumonia (107 vs 51 per 1000 patient-years) and other serious infections (142 vs 66 per 1000 patient-years). CONCLUSIONS: Rituximab is a reasonable therapeutic option for older patients with rheumatoid arthritis although vigilance is needed with regard to the infection profile. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT01581294.

Comparative effectiveness of TNF inhibitors and tocilizumab with and without conventional synthetic disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs in a pan-European observational cohort of bio-naïve patients with rheumatoid arthritis.

OBJECTIVES: To compare treatment effectiveness in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients naïve to biological disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (bDMARDs) treated with tocilizumab (TCZ) or TNF-inhibitor (TNFi) with (-combo) or without (-mono) conventional synthetic DMARDs (csDMARDs). METHODS: Patients with RA across 7 European registries, naïve to bDMARDs who initiated treatment with TCZ or TNFi from 2009 to 2016 were included. Drug retention rate was analyzed using Kaplan-Meier and Cox models, and CDAI over time by mixed models. The proportions of patients reaching CDAI low disease activity (LDA) and remission after one year were corrected for attrition. RESULTS: 6713 TNFi-combo, 3762 TNFi-mono, 646 TCZ-combo and 384 TCZ-mono were eligible. Crude median retention was 3.67 years (95%CI 3.41-3.83) for TNFi-combo, 4.14 (3.77-4.62) for TNFi-mono, 2.98 (2.76-3.34) for TCZ-combo and 3.63 years (3.34-5.03) for TCZ-mono. After adjustment for covariates, country and year of treatment initiation stratification, hazards of discontinuation were lower for TCZ-mono (0.60, 95% CI 0.52-0.69) and TCZ-combo (0.66, 95% CI 0.54-0.81) compared to TNFi-combo. Adjusted CDAI evolution was not significantly different between groups. CDAI LDA and remission corrected for attrition were similar between TCZ with or without csDMARDs and TNFi-combo. CONCLUSION: In routine care across 7 European countries, the adjusted drug retention, adjusted CDAI over time and attrition-corrected response proportion for RA patients were similar for bio-naïve patients if treated with TNFi-combo, TCZ-combo or TCZ-mono.

Drug retention of biological DMARD in rheumatoid arthritis patients: the role of baseline characteristics and disease evolution.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the association of the evolution in physician-reported and patient-reported outcomes with decision to stop biological DMARDs (bDMARDs) in RA. The contribution of baseline characteristics is well established, but little is known about how the disease evolution influences the decision to discontinue therapy. METHODS: RA patients who initiated a bDMARD treatment from 2009 and with information on date of visit were pooled from seven European RA registers. Each outcome was divided into baseline assessments (capturing the inter-individual differences at drug initiation) and changes from baseline at subsequent visits (capturing the individual evolution). Cox regression models were used to examine their association with drug discontinuation, adjusting for baseline patient and co-therapy characteristics and stratifying by register and calendar year of drug initiation. RESULTS: A total of 25 077 patients initiated a bDMARDs (18 507 a TNF-inhibitor, 3863 tocilizumab and 2707 abatacept) contributing an amount of 46 456.8 patient-years. Overall, drug discontinuation was most strongly associated with a poor evolution of the DAS28, with a hazard ratio of 1.34 (95% CI 1.29, 1.40), followed by its baseline value. A change of Physician Global Assessment was the next strongest predictor of discontinuation, then the Patient Global Assessment. CONCLUSIONS: The decision to discontinue treatments appears to be mostly influenced by DAS28 and particularly its evolution over time, followed by Physician Global Assessment evolution, suggesting that the decision to stop bDMARDs relies more on the physician's than on the patient's global assessment.

Predicting achievement of the treatment targets at 6 months from 3-month response levels in rheumatoid arthritis: data from real-life follow-up in the NOR-DMARD study.

OBJECTIVE: When initiating a new therapy in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA), current treatment recommendations suggest escalating therapy in case of poor clinical improvement by 3 months or if the treatment target has not been reached by 6 months. We investigated which disease activity improvement levels at 3 months predicted achievement of the treatment targets at 6 months in a real-life clinical setting. METHODS: We included 1610 patients with RA enrolled in the NOR-DMARD study between 2000 and 2012. Analyses were performed for the total group of patients and repeated for subgroups stratified by baseline disease activity, disease duration or treatment with methotrexate or a tumour necrosis factor inhibitor. We used a diagnostic test approach to explore the associations between 3-month response and 6-month outcome. RESULTS: Not achieving 50% improvement in Simplified Disease Activity Index (SDAI) by 3 months significantly decreased the likelihood of reaching remission at 6 months in all subgroups (negative likelihood ratios (LRs-) 0.15-0.36). Patients with high disease activity when initiating treatment were likely to fail reaching remission if they achieved less than SDAI 70% response by 3 months (LR- 0.25 and negative predictive value 0.98). Achieving a major response (SDAI 85%) at 3 months significantly increased the likelihood of reaching remission at 6 months (LRs+ 6.56). CONCLUSION: Levels of 3-month disease activity improvement can inform clinicians when deciding to continue or adjust ongoing therapy in a treat-to-target strategy aiming for remission or low disease activity within 6 months. The required levels of 3-month improvement varied with baseline disease activity.